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1 Online supplement to: Mader, Matthias & Schoen, Harald Ideological voting in context: The case of Germany during the Merkel era. In: Schoen, Harald & Roßteutscher, Sigrid & Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger & Weßels, Bernhard & Wolf, Christof (Eds.): Voters and Voting in Context: Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Table A1: Field time and sample size of GLES Online Trackings Welle Field Time No. of Obs. GLES Online Tracking, T1 3 April 29 5 May 29 2,45 GLES Online Tracking, T2 27 May 29 5 June 29 1,71 GLES Online Tracking, T3 3 July July 29 1,133 GLES Online Tracking, T4 31 July August 29 1,144 GLES Online Tracking, T5 24 August 29 1 September 29 1,139 GLES Online Tracking, T6 18 September September 29 1,153 GLES Online Tracking, T7 29 September 29 8 October 29 1,147 GLES Online Tracking, T8 1 December 29 2 December 29 1,131 GLES Online Tracking, T9 15 April April 21 1,136 GLES Online Tracking, T1 24 June 21 5 July 21 1,138 GLES Online Tracking, T11 16 September September 21 1,148 GLES Online Tracking, T12 9 December December 21 1,144 GLES Online Tracking, T13 9 March March 211 1,137 GLES Online Tracking, T14 23 May June 211 1,144 GLES Online Tracking, T15 24 August September 211 1,158 GLES Online Tracking, T16 8 December December 211 1,114 GLES Online Tracking, T17 2 May May 212 1,16 GLES Online Tracking, T18 17 September October 212 1,75 GLES Online Tracking, T19 4 January January 213 1,34 GLES Online Tracking, T2 24 May June 213 1,48 GLES Online Tracking, T21 6 September September 213 1,12 GLES Online Tracking, T22 29 November December 213 1,49 GLES Online Tracking, T23 21 February March 214 1,23 GLES Online Tracking, T24 9 May May 214 1,44 GLES Online Tracking, T25 29 August September 214 1,11 GLES Online Tracking, T26 21 November December 214 1,19 GLES Online Tracking, T27 27 February March 215 1,29 GLES Online Tracking, T28 5 June June 215 1,19 GLES Online Tracking, T29 11 September September 215 1,27 GLES Online Tracking, T3 4 December December 215 1,31 1
2 Figure A1: Media salience of health and retirement issues and partisan actors in Germany, Retirement and health issues 8 Percent of articles Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) 3 Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) May-13 (T2) Left partisan actors Jan-14 (13) May-14 (14) Jun-15 (T28) Dec-15 (T3) 3 Right partisan actors Percent of articles Notes: Reported are percentage of coded articles of more than 1 words in which relevant key terms appeared least two times. See for the specific list of dictionnaire codes used in creating the variables. Table A2: Operationalization of media content variables Variable Content/Codes Health and Retirement (CAT364) retirement issues Health care (CAT366) Left Partisan actors Right Partisan actors Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) May-13 (T2) Jan-14 (13) May-14 (14) Jun-15 (T28) Dec-15 (T3) Percent of articles Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) May-13 (T2) Jan-14 (13) May-14 (14) Jun-15 (T28) Dec-15 (T3) Left political parties in the German Bundestag, i.e. SPD, Grünen, Linke Leaders of these parties (Ministers, leaders of parliamentary factions, chairman of a party, chancellor candidate Steinbrück) (Codes: CAT11 + CAT12 + CAT125 + CAT35 + CAT222 + CAT223 + CAT224 + CAT225 + CAT227 + CAT229 + CAT271 + CAT272 + CAT273 + CAT276 + CAT277 + CAT278 + CAT291 + CAT293 + CAT294 + CAT295 + CAT296 + CAT297 + CAT298 + CAT299 + CAT3 + CAT31 + CAT35) Right political parties in the German Bundestag, i.e. CDU and CSU, plus AfD Leaders of these parties (Chancellor Merkel, leaders of parliamentary factions, chairman of a party) (Codes: CAT1 + CAT15 + CAT115 + CAT155 + CAT21 + CAT22 + CAT23 + CAT24 + CAT25 + CAT26 + CAT27 + CAT28 + CAT29 + CAT21 + CAT211 + CAT212 + CAT213 + CAT214 + CAT215 + CAT216 + CAT217 + CAT218 + CAT219 + CAT22 + CAT221 + CAT226 + CAT228 + CAT23 + CAT27 + CAT274 + CAT275 + CAT29 + CAT292 + CAT36 + CAT37 + CAT38) 2
3 Figure A2: Ideological voting for the SPD among the politically involved and uninvolved, Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) 29 Left identity Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) Right identity High involvement Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) 213 May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Low involvement May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Notes: Displayed are differences in the predicted probability of voting intentions between citizens without ideological identity and citizens holding a strong left or right identity, respectively; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; due to insufficient numbers of observation, in some cases it is impossible to estimate coefficients. 3
4 Figure A3: Ideological voting for the Green Party among the politically involved and uninvolved, Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) 29 Left identity Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) Right identity High involvement Aug-9 (T5) Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) 213 May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Low involvement May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Notes: Displayed are differences in the predicted probability of voting intentions between citizens without ideological identity and citizens holding a strong left or right identity, respectively; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; due to insufficient numbers of observation, in some cases it is impossible to estimate coefficients. 4
5 Figure A4: Ideological voting for the Left Party among the politically involved and uninvolved, Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) 29 Left identity Apr-9 (T1) May-9 (T2) Jul-9 (T3) Jul-9 (T4) Aug-9 (T5) Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) Right identity High involvement Aug-9 (T5) Sep-9 (T6) Sep-9 (T7) Dec-9 (T8) Mar-1 (T9) Jun-1 (T1) Sep-1 (T11) Dec-1 (T12) 213 May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Low involvement May-12 (T2) Dec-15 (T3) Notes: Displayed are differences in the predicted probability of voting intentions between citizens without ideological identity and citizens holding a strong left or right identity, respectively; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; due to insufficient numbers of observation, in some cases it is impossible to estimate coefficients. 5
6 Figure A1: Predicted effects of ideological identities on voting intentions for the SPD depending on the salience of health and retirement issues (young and elderly population).3 Elderly Young Average marginal effect Low Medium High Salience of retirement and health issues Figure A2: Predicted effects of ideological identities on voting intentions for the Green Party depending on the salience of health and retirement issues (young and elderly population).3 Elderly Young Average marginal effect Low Medium High Salience of retirement and health issues Figure A3: Predicted effects of ideological identities on voting intentions for the Left Party depending on the salience of health and retirement issues (young and elderly population).3 Elderly Young Average marginal effect Low Medium High Salience of retirement and health issues Notes for A5 through A7: Displayed are average marginal effects of the left-right ideological self-placement on voting intentions; bars represent 95% confidence intervals; low salience represents the minimum salience observed in the time span under consideration; analogously, high represents the highest recorded value. 6
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