International Relations Theory Nemzetközi Politika Elmélet szeptember 18. A globalizáció

Transcription

1 International Relations Theory Nemzetközi Politika Elmélet szeptember 18. A globalizáció György László egyetemi tanársegéd BME GTK, Pénzügyek Tanszék, Gazdaságpolitika és Gazdaságtörténet Szakcsoport

2 Is poverty bigger now than ever?

3 The richest 20% of the world s population had % of world GDP - the bottom fifth had 1% 2. 82% of world export markets - the bottom fifth had 1% 3. 68% of FDI - the bottom fifth had 1% 4. 74% of world telephone lines - the bottom fifth had 1,5% 5. 93,3% of all internet users - the bottom fifth had 0,2% (UNDP 1999) 3,5 billion people lives from less than $2/day 1,2 billion people from less than $1/day

4 Inequalities Between the richest and poorest fifth of the world to to to to to to 1

5 Views on globalisation Mainstream positive More opened a country is, the faster it can develop Economic policy based on the Washington Consensus Middleway Dahrendorf positive and negative Useful since new and modern needs (mobile phone, fashionable clothes, etc.) can be fulfilled at a previously unimaginable speed Reduction of costs Regional disparities Boundaries between the rich, the middleclass and the poor are rigid Aggressive process D.C. Korten negative Turbocapitalism No real competition Nominal economy dominates the real economy

6 Mainstream interpretation of globalization the expansion on a global scale of the interrelations among national economic and social systems through private economic institutions. Such expansion is associated with the increase in international movements of goods, financial capital and labour and with an increase in international production, mainly by multinational corporations (Nicola Acocella, 2005)...the spread and intensification of economic, social and cultural relations across international borders. (Jackson-Sörensen, 2007)...a historical process involving a fundamental shift or transformation in the spatial scale of human social organization that links distant communities and expands a reach of power relations across regions and continents. It is also something of a catch-all phrase often used to describe a single-world economy after the collapse of the communism, though sometimes employed to define the growing integration of the international capitalist system in the post-war period. (Baylis-Smith-Owens, 2008)

7 International flow of goods and services (X+M)/GDP(%), (Source: Penn World Table 6.2) % Australia France Germany na Italy Japan Netherlands United Kingdom USA

8 Flow of portfolio and FDI and the internationalization of production (billions, $) Global foreign exchange market turnover (daily average, april) Cross-border transactions in bonds and equities as a percentage of GDP (%) USA Germany Italy Stock of FDI (billions, $) Employment in foreign affilliaties (millions) Sales of foreign affiliaties /World GDP 0,23 0,28 0,49 0,52 Export of foreign affiliaties /World GDP 0,057 0,069 0,112 0,098

9 Definition Globalization: is a power/economic process during which the strongest players in the world economy unite and through the most important international institutions they generalize the economic and political rules based on their own interests and in line with the legal framework given and shaped by them. The categories of competition and market in practice goes through a substantial alteration. The process affects all spheres of life fundamentally.

10 Strongest players Pyramids Financial companies, hedge-funds Trading chains Production companies (TNCs) OTP MOL

11 Most important international institutions IMF Worldbank Group WTO (GATT) Year of establishment (1947) Initial goal Global economic stability Rebuilding of Europe, fight against poverty Foster the free flow of goods and services Budget $354 billion $36 billion Members 185 countries appr. 185 countries (Venezuela and Ecuador have recently withdrawn 153 countries Representative Minister of finance, Governor of reserve bank Minister of trade (and economics)

12 The story US hegemony dominant economic and military power. Able and willing to set up a liberal world economy. 1950s, 1960s - reconstruction of Japan and Western Europe 1970s - US hegemony in decline: decreasing economic power 1980s - debt crises (debt trap) 1970s - US looks after its own interests. The liberal world economy in crisis. + Oil money appears in the world finance system 1990s, 21st century - gobalization of the liberal world economy, Washington Consensus

13 Economic and political rules Theory Interest groups pressure Practice 1. Fiscal Discipline: primary surplus 1. Fiscal Discipline: establish balanced budget 2. Public expenditure priorities: reduce expenditures on politically sensitive areas and increase government expenditure 2. Public expenditure priorities: reduce expenditures for education and health care 3. Tax reform: broadening the tax base, reducing marginal tax rates, progressivity 4. Financial liberalization: market determined interest rates in the long run 3. Tax reform: enact overall tax cuts, remove taxes on capital movements 4. Financial liberalization: market determined interest rates immediately 5. Exchange rate policy: managed competitive exchange rate policy 6. Trade liberalization: gradual abolition of quantitative restrictions 7. FDI: free competition between foreign and domestic firms (no economic nationalism) 8. Privatization: only if it results increased competition 9. Deregulation abolish regulations that restrict the entry of new firms 10.Property rights: secure, uniform and low cost property rights 5. Exchange rate policy: fully convertible, freely floating 6. Trade liberalization: gradual free trade and the elimination of protection measures 7. FDI: abolish barriers to entry or exit for foreign firms 8. Privatization: state enterprises should be privatized 9. Deregulation eliminate entry and exit barriers and the suppression of regulations designed to protect the environment 10.Property rights: secure, uniform and low cost property rights

14 Signs of totality 1. The world became single-centered: the US adopted a hegemonic role in world politics 2. The new, mushrooming achievements of the information society - mainly the internet - are growing hand-in-hand with a previously unimaginable communication revolution (with the technical possibility of misusing information) 3. The financial economy is increasingly dominating the real economy 4. The category of statehood - formerly one of the most important - used to characterize the arrangement and the operation of the world is increasingly becoming marginalized and irrelevant

15 Signs of totality Single centered world with US hegemony Information technology revolution and its consequences Financial markets dominating the real economy Marginalizing state sovereignity

16 Signs of totality (e.g.) Decision on Iraqi intervention Googleworld Resolution of financial crises (e.g. Indonesia) Wall-Street, the ruling elite (Stiglitz, Bhagwati)

17 1. Globalization 2. Signs of totality 3. Possible way-out

18 Globalization as an opportunity NGOs like ATTAC, AVAAZ - the voice of the world society ATTAC (Association for the Taxation of Financial Transactions for the Aid of Citizens) 1. taxation of cross-border currency speculation 2. writing off the international debt of poor countries 3. outlawing tax havens 4. more democratic control of large pension funds

19 Globalization as an opportunity

20 Globalization as an opportunity NGOs like ATTAC, AVAAZ - the voice of the world society AVAAZ.org, the voice A new global web movement with a simple democratic mission: to close the gap between the world we have, and the world most people everywhere want....globalization faces a huge democratic deficit as international decisions are shaped by political elites and unaccountable corporations -- not the views and values of the world s people.

21 Globalization as an opportunity