FGV-OECD Workshop Rio de Janeiro, October, 6, 2008 Andre Hofman (ECLAC) Presentation and additional comments by Aloisio Campelo Jr.

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1 FGV-OECD Workshop Rio de Janeiro, October, 6, 2008 Andre Hofman (ECLAC) Presentation and additional comments by Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV)

2 Business Tendency Surveys in Latin America Business Tendency Surveys have been produced in Latin America since the 60 s: Brasil s FGV (1966) Colombia s FEDESARROLLO (1978) Over time most countries in Latin America have started their own BTS. Given the disparate objectives driving the adoption of BTS, there was substantial heterogeneity in their design and use.

3 The Harmonisation Project Since 2000, with financial support from the EC and technical support of the OECD, a program has tried to encourage countries in the region to adopt a harmonised framework based on the OECD s Handbook [1]. 12 Latin American countries actively participated in the project. The project has focused on the harmonisation of the BTS of the manufacturing sector.

4 Harmonised Questionnaire Regional harmonisation efforts were centred on questions regarding the following aspects of the manufacturing survey: Current level of demand for their own industrial products Current level of stocks of finished goods Expected level of production (3 months ahead) Current business situation Expected business situation (6 months ahead)

5 Results Advances were made in the implementation of the harmonised questionnaire in the following countries: Argentina, Brasil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, Dominican Republic and Venezuela Heterogeneity in the sectorial coverage and the frequency of surveys

6 Analysis ECLAC (CEPAL) prepared an evaluation of the harmonisation project [4]. It concluded that although there are many instances where further streamlining of design and procedures can take place, a substantial degree of harmonisation has been achieved. Moreover, the advances made allow the comparison of cycles across countries as well as the construction of composite indices at the multinational level.

7 The Road Ahead Keep promoting the development of harmonised Tendency Surveys in the region. Expand the harmonisation of BTS to other sectors (construction, retail and wholesale trade, financial services) in order to have a more complete picture of activity at the regional and subregional level. Promote the investigation and analysis of composite indicators built from survey data in the region.

8 References Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Business Tendency Surveys. A Handbook, OECD, Paris, Gallardo Mauricio y Michael Pedersen Indicadores líderes compuestos. Resumen de metodologías de referencia para construir un indicador regional en América Latina, CEPAL, Santiago, Gallardo Mauricio y Michael Pedersen Un sistema de indicadores líderes compuestos para la región de América Latina, CEPAL, Santiago, Gallardo Mauricio y Michael Pedersen Encuestas de opinión empresarial del sector industrial en América Latina, CEPAL, Santiago, 2008.

9 FGV s Comments The programme was successful in spreading the harmonised questionnaire and technical recommendations of the OECD. But a complete harmonisation was not achieved. In our view the problem is the lack of any type of enforcement (be it financial or institucional). In the absence of an institucional power such as the EC, it remains to be discussed whether some kind of financial stimulus could help fostering the harmonisation efforts in Latin America.