Richard Rose is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland.

Transcription

1 NORTHERN IRELAND

2 Richard Rose is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland.

3 NORTHERN IRELAND A Time of Choice Richard Rose

4 1976 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Views expressed in the Institute's publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the staff, advisory panels, officers or trustees of AE I. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1976 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. First published in the U.S.A First published in the United Kingdom 1976 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in New York Dublin Melbourne Johannesburg and Madras SBN (hardcover) (paperback) ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / The paperback edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. This book is sold subject to the standard conditions of the Net Book Agreement

5 To the people of Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry and Tyronehowever they choose to describe themselves. They endured

6 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 1 THE PROBLEM BRIEFLY STATED Nationality 9 Religion 11 Government without Consensus TO THE PRECIPICE Stormont, The Political Vacuum, THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT Characteristics of Political Organization in Ulster 33 Protestant Political Groupings 37 Catholic Political Groupings 49 The "Extreme" Moderates 58 The British Role 59 Ulster and the Republic 65 Strange Bedfellows CAMPAIGNING FOR A CONSTITUTION The Circumstances of the Election 71 The Competing Parties 79 On the Eve of the Election 92 71

7 5 THE RESULT OF THE BALLOT Turnout and Boycott 95 The Distribution of Votes 99 The Effects of Proportional Representation 102 The Discipline of Voters 105 The Winning Candidates IN SEARCH OF A SETTLEMENT 117 Strategic Options 117 A Productive Recess 123 The Outcome THE LIMITS OF CHOICE An Insoluble Problem 139 Alternative Ways of Coping 142 Self-Government within the United Kingdom 143 Direct Rule from London 153 An Independent Northern Ireland 156 Unification with Southern Ireland 157 The Destruction of Northern Ireland 160 The Way Ahead APPENDIX A: Vote Transfers 167 APPENDIX B: A Note on Readings 173 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 1. Deaths by Political Violence in Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland Assembly Election Result, Northern Ireland Convention Election Result, Relation of Seats to Votes, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom The Strength of Partisanship Votes by Tendencies, Westminster and Northern Ireland Elections, Religious Affiliation of Convention Members Comparison of Ages of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 112

8 9. Comparison of the Occupations of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s Comparison of the Education of Convention Members 11. A-1. A-2. Figure 1. and Westminster M.P.s 114 The Political Experience of Convention Members Sources of Vote Transfers, Northern Ireland Convention Election 171 Distribution of Vote Transfers, Northern Ireland Convention Election 172 The Distribution of the Vote by Tendencies, LIST OF MAPS 1973 and Britain and Ireland, opposite page 1 Northern Ireland 8 115

9 ABBREVIATIONS B Specials DUP IRA IRSP NILP NIO PR RUC SDLP STY UDA UDR UPNI uuuc UVF uwc VUP Ulster Special Constabulary (paramilitary police organization disbanded in 1969) Democratic Unionist party (leader: Ian Paisley) Irish Republican Army Irish Republican Socialist party Northern Ireland Labour party Northern Ireland Office of the United Kingdom government Proportional representation Royal Ulster Constabulary (police force) Social Democratic and Labour party (leader: Gerry Fitt) Single transferable vote Ulster Defence Association (Protestant paramilitary organization) Ulster Defence Regiment (British army-led paramilitary reserve) Unionist party of Northern Ireland (leader: Brian Faulkner) United Ulster Unionist Council Ulster Volunteer Force Ulster Workers' Council Vanguard Unionist party

10 BRITAIN AND IRELAND 0 c. ~ ~ tl " "f " ' v " ~ "f I,, 1r ~