Partisan Accountability and Economic Voting
|
|
- Chrystal Stanley
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Evidence from Exchange Rate Fluctuations L. Jason Anastasopoulos 1 Aaron Chalfin 2 1 Department of Political Science UC Berkeley 2 Goldman School of Public Policy UC Berkeley November 16, 2011
2 Congressional Economic Voting: Literature Review Preview Major questions Macro-Level Do changes in the economy impact congressional voting? How do they impact congressional voting? Micro-Level By what process Rational Accountability Partisan Accountability
3 Congressional Economic Voting: Literature Review Preview Economic Voting: Macro-Level Kramer (1971) - It s the economy, stupid. Study of Midterm elections. DV: Aggregate House Member Vote Share: Party of the President IVs: Per capita income, unemployment. Improvements help incumbents in the party of the President, declines hurt them. Subsequent studies support/contradict Kramer (1971) It s the economy, stupid.(bloom and Price 1975; Kiewiet and Udell 1998) It s NOT the economy, stupid. (Erikson 1990)
4 Congressional Economic Voting: Literature Review Preview Economic Voting: Micro-level Focus on accountability. Rational Accountability: Incumbents held responsible for economic performance over the course of their term. Retrospective Voting.(Fiorina 1978, 1981). Sophisticated Retrospective Voting. (Ebeid and Rodden 2006) Partisan Accountability: Incumbents held responsible for economic performance in a partisan fashion. Group attribution bias. (Peffley, Feldman and Sigelman 1987; Sigelman and Knight 1987 ; Rudolph 2003) Economic ideology. (Rudolph 2003)
5 Congressional Economic Voting: Literature Review Preview : Macro-Level It s STILL the economy, stupid. Data: CCES + Census State-Level Panel. 1% increase in (instrumented) state unemployment decreases House incumbent vote share by 5%. Effect driven almost entirely by Democratic House incumbents. 1% increase in (instrumented) state unemployment decreases Democratic House incumbent vote share by 6.3%. No effect found for Republican House incumbents.
6 Congressional Economic Voting: Literature Review Preview : Micro-Level Support for partisan accountability. Data: ANES State-Level Panel. Question: Did you vote for a candidate for Congress? Whom did you vote for? Which party was that? Coded response: R s Vote: for major party candidate from party different than R s partisanship 1 Pooled: 1% in (instrumented) state unemployment 5.9% in R vote for candidate of different partisanship. Democratic Partisans: 1% in (instrumented) state unemployment 6.8% in R vote for candidate of different partisanship. Republican Partisans: No effect found. 1 ANES Note: The respondent has been considered a partisan if R was strong, weak or leaning
7 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : OLS w Fixed Effects Omitted variables/endogeneity May not return consistent estimates. State-level economic policy decisions that affect unemployment and vote share vary w/in states over time. Fixed effects/differencing won t solve this problem. Measurement Error in the Independent Variable Measurement error in unemployment will produce inconsistent OLS estimates. Made worse with the inclusion of fixed effects/differencing.
8 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Measurement Error with OLS Measurement error in the independent variable biases coefficient estimates toward zero. W/ no omitted variables, β is unbiased and consistent when: y = βx + ɛ, ɛ N(0, 1) (1) cov(x, ɛ) = 0 (2) y = Vote share, X = unemployment.
9 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Measurement Error with OLS Classical Measurement Error - Measurement uncorrelated with the variable of interest. Found to be present in Current Population Survey estimates of local and state unemployment. (Ullman 1962; Buss 1986; Poterba and Summers 1986; Norwood 1988; Bound and Krueger 1991; Bollinger 1998; Feng 2004). With classical measurement error, however. We estimate: y = βx + ɛ, ɛ N(0, 1) (3) X = X + υ, υ N(0, συ) 2 (4) cov(υ, X) = 0 (5) cov(ɛ, υ) = 0 (6) y = Vote share, X = unemployment measured with error, X = unemployment.
10 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Measurement Error with OLS Measurement error biases β toward zero. ˆβ = cov(x,y) plim ˆβ = β λ = var(x ) = cov(x+υ,xβ+ɛ) var(x+υ) (7) σ2 x = λβ (8) σx 2 +συ 2 σ2 x σ 2 x +σ 2 υ (9) Since 0 < λ < 1, β is biased toward zero. y = Vote share, X = unemployment measured with error, X = unemployment.
11 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Measurement Error with Fixed Effects Inclusion of fixed effects can increase measurement error attenuation by a factor of four. Panel data set with repeated measures over two time periods, T = 2 (equivalent to first differences). Now: β fe = cov( X, Y ) var( X ) (10) where X = (X st + υ st ) (X st 1 + υ st 1 ) (11) Y = Y st Y st 1 (12)
12 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Measurement Error with Fixed Effects It can be shown that, with measurement error: plimβ fe = β σx 2 (1 π X ) σx 2 (1 π (13) X )+συ 2 (1 πυ π X = cov(x st, X st1 )/var(x st ) (14) π υ = cov(υ st, υ st 1 )/var(υ st (15) Rearranging terms, we find that the bias is greatest when π X > π υ. This generally occurs in fixed effects models as serial correlation within units over time is generally very high.
13 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Instrumental Variables as a Solution An instrument, Z can identify β if it meets the following conditions: Condition 1: Instrument Strength: It is strongly correlated with X* (unemployment measured with error). Condition 2: Exclusion Restriction: It is uncorrelated with ɛ.
14 OLS + Fixed Effects Instrumental Variables : Instrumental Variables as a Solution Measurement error in X becomes irrelevant when we instrument: βˆ IV = cov(y,z ) cov(x,z ) = cov(βx+ɛ,z ) cov(x+υ,z ) plim ˆ β IV = β σ2 XZ σ 2 XZ = β
15 Model Instrument : Model The Model: X st = β 1 Z st + β 2 %M st + W st γ + ψ s + δ t + η st y st = α 1 ˆXst + α 2 %M st + W st γ + ψ s + δ t + ɛ st Estimate α 1 using 2SLS. X st = State unemployment, y st = Incumbent vote share, Z st = Exchange rate instrument, ψ s = State fixed effects, δ t Year fixed effects.
16 Model Instrument : Instrument Instrument for state unemployment: real exchange rate shocks to state manufacturing employment as an instrument for state unemployment. (Lin 2006) Z st = E %M st = E t E t 1 E t 1 %M st Intuition - States unemployment differentially determined by quasi-random exogenous shocks (set by the world market). E = Percent change in real exchange Rate, %M st = Percent employed in manufacturing.
17 Model Instrument : Testing IV Assumptions Condition 1: Instrument Strength - results below, show that instrument meets criteria for strong instrument. F-Statistic > 10 on the excluded instrument. Condition 2: Exclusion Restriction Untestable in practice. Given our model, a violation would require correlation of Z with omitted time-varying characteristics of states.
18 OLS + Fixed Effects 2SLS IV TABLE 1. LEAST SQUARES MODELS OF THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ON INCUMBENT VOTE SHARE (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) PANEL A. CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY DATA Incumbent Vote ** ** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) Democratic Incumbent Vote * (0.004) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) Republican Incumbent Vote *** (0.003) (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) PANEL B. ANES DATA % Party Switch (0.003) (0.005) (0.006) (0.008) (0.009) % Democrat Switch (0.003) (0.006) (0.006) (0.009) (0.012) % Republican Switch (0.006) (0.012) (0.005) (0.015) (0.015) year effects no yes yes yes yes state effects no no yes yes yes covariates no no no yes yes time trends no no no no yes
19 Introduction OLS + Fixed Effects 2SLS IV OLS Coefficient Plot: Unemployment, Aggregate OLS Coefficient Plot: Unemployment, ANES IncumbVote % Party Switch Democratic Incumbent Vote Republican Incumbent Vote % Democrat Switch Democrat Vote Republican Vote % Republican Switch (a) CCES Data (b) ANES Data Figure: Model (5): LS Estimates of DVs on Unemployment
20 OLS + Fixed Effects 2SLS IV TABLE 2. 2SLS MODELS OF THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ON INCUMBENT VOTE SHARE (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) PANEL A. CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY DATA Incumbent Vote ** -0.04** ** ** *** (0.005) (0.019) (0.016) (0.018) (0.018) Democratic Incumbent Vote *** ** ** *** *** (0.009) (0.024) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) Republican Incumbent Vote 0.022*** (0.008) (0.017) (0.016) (0.017) (0.018) F-Statistic on instrument PANEL B. ANES DATA % Party Switch ** (0.012) (0.027) (0.026) (0.026) (0.029) % Democrat Switch 0.031** ** (0.014) (0.032) (0.030) (0.028) (0.013) % Republican Switch *** 0.066** (0.027) (0.033) (0.032) (0.038) (0.041) F-Statistic on instrument year effects no yes yes yes yes state effects no no yes yes yes covariates no no no yes yes time trends no no no no yes
21 Introduction OLS + Fixed Effects 2SLS IV IV Coefficient Plot: Unemployment, Aggregate IV Coefficient Plot: Unemployment, ANES IncumbVote % Party Switch Democratic Incumbent Vote Republican Incumbent Vote % Democrat Switch Democrat Vote Republican Vote % Republican Switch (a) CCES Data (b) ANES Data Figure: Model (5): 2SLS Estimates of DVs on Unemployment
22 OLS + Fixed Effects 2SLS IV Conclusions Congressional Economic Voting and Local Unemployment Local unemployment matters in congressional voting. Support for the conclusion that its importance has been underestimated in the past. Partisan Accountability Strong support for partisan accountability. Only Democratic incumbents punished for increases in state unemployment. Suggests that Democratic partisans tend to hold their incumbents accountable while Republicans do not.
USING MULTI-MEMBER-DISTRICT ELECTIONS TO ESTIMATE THE SOURCES OF THE INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE 1
USING MULTI-MEMBER-DISTRICT ELECTIONS TO ESTIMATE THE SOURCES OF THE INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE 1 Shigeo Hirano Department of Political Science Columbia University James M. Snyder, Jr. Departments of Political
More informationVoter Uncertainty and Economic Conditions: A Look into Election Competitiveness
Voter Uncertainty and Economic Conditions: A Look into Election Competitiveness Christopher V. Lau April 30, 2009 Abstract It is widely know that the state of the economy has a substantial effect on how
More informationYou Reap What You Sow
Agricultural bias and the electoral politics of democratic sovereign default Cameron Ballard-Rosa Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill International Political Economy
More informationRevisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict: A Methodological Caution
Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict: A Methodological Caution Paul Christian (World Bank) and Christopher B. Barrett (Cornell) University of Connecticut November 17, 2017 Background Motivation
More informationPork Barrel as a Signaling Tool: The Case of US Environmental Policy
Pork Barrel as a Signaling Tool: The Case of US Environmental Policy Grantham Research Institute and LSE Cities, London School of Economics IAERE February 2016 Research question Is signaling a driving
More informationModel of Voting. February 15, Abstract. This paper uses United States congressional district level data to identify how incumbency,
U.S. Congressional Vote Empirics: A Discrete Choice Model of Voting Kyle Kretschman The University of Texas Austin kyle.kretschman@mail.utexas.edu Nick Mastronardi United States Air Force Academy nickmastronardi@gmail.com
More informationIs the Great Gatsby Curve Robust?
Comment on Corak (2013) Bradley J. Setzler 1 Presented to Economics 350 Department of Economics University of Chicago setzler@uchicago.edu January 15, 2014 1 Thanks to James Heckman for many helpful comments.
More informationElectoral Selection and the Incumbency Advantage
Electoral Selection and the Incumbency Advantage Scott Ashworth Ethan Bueno de Mesquita First Version: August 13, 2004 This Version: August 13, 2004 1 Introduction Sitting members of Congress exhibit an
More informationEconomic Voting in Gubernatorial Elections
Economic Voting in Gubernatorial Elections Christopher Warshaw Department of Political Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology May 2, 2017 Preliminary version prepared for the UCLA American Politics
More informationImmigration and Internal Mobility in Canada Appendices A and B. Appendix A: Two-step Instrumentation strategy: Procedure and detailed results
Immigration and Internal Mobility in Canada Appendices A and B by Michel Beine and Serge Coulombe This version: February 2016 Appendix A: Two-step Instrumentation strategy: Procedure and detailed results
More informationThe China Syndrome. Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States. David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H.
The China Syndrome Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson AER, 2013 presented by Federico Curci April 9, 2014 Autor, Dorn,
More informationChallenger Quality and the Incumbency Advantage
Challenger Quality and the Incumbency Advantage Pamela Ban Department of Government Harvard University Elena Llaudet Department of Government Harvard University James M. Snyder, Jr. Department of Government
More informationGender preference and age at arrival among Asian immigrant women to the US
Gender preference and age at arrival among Asian immigrant women to the US Ben Ost a and Eva Dziadula b a Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 South Morgan UH718 M/C144 Chicago,
More informationResearch Report. How Does Trade Liberalization Affect Racial and Gender Identity in Employment? Evidence from PostApartheid South Africa
International Affairs Program Research Report How Does Trade Liberalization Affect Racial and Gender Identity in Employment? Evidence from PostApartheid South Africa Report Prepared by Bilge Erten Assistant
More informationPolitical Economics II Spring Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency. Torsten Persson, IIES
Lectures 4-5_190213.pdf Political Economics II Spring 2019 Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency Torsten Persson, IIES 1 Introduction: Partisan Politics Aims continue exploring policy
More informationCongressional Gridlock: The Effects of the Master Lever
Congressional Gridlock: The Effects of the Master Lever Olga Gorelkina Max Planck Institute, Bonn Ioanna Grypari Max Planck Institute, Bonn Preliminary & Incomplete February 11, 2015 Abstract This paper
More informationMaking Sense of the Noise in Personal Financial Evaluations: Reconsidering the Evidence. of Pocketbook Economic Voting
Making Sense of the Noise in Personal Financial Evaluations: Reconsidering the Evidence of Pocketbook Economic Voting Harvey D. Palmer Department of Political Science University of Mississippi hpalmer@olemiss.edu
More informationSocial Returns to Education and Human Capital Externalities: Evidence from Cities
Social Returns to Education and Human Capital Externalities: Evidence from Cities Enrico Moretti Department of Economics UC Berkeley enrico@econ.berkeley.edu December 1998 Abstract Private and social returns
More informationPork Barrel as a Signaling Tool: The Case of US Environmental Policy
Pork Barrel as a Signaling Tool: The Case of US Environmental Policy Hélia Costa Grantham Research Institute and LSE Cities London School of Economics September 2016 Abstract Are environmental policies
More informationHonors General Exam Part 1: Microeconomics (33 points) Harvard University
Honors General Exam Part 1: Microeconomics (33 points) Harvard University April 9, 2014 QUESTION 1. (6 points) The inverse demand function for apples is defined by the equation p = 214 5q, where q is the
More informationFamily Ties, Labor Mobility and Interregional Wage Differentials*
Family Ties, Labor Mobility and Interregional Wage Differentials* TODD L. CHERRY, Ph.D.** Department of Economics and Finance University of Wyoming Laramie WY 82071-3985 PETE T. TSOURNOS, Ph.D. Pacific
More informationANES Panel Study Proposal Voter Turnout and the Electoral College 1. Voter Turnout and Electoral College Attitudes. Gregory D.
ANES Panel Study Proposal Voter Turnout and the Electoral College 1 Voter Turnout and Electoral College Attitudes Gregory D. Webster University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Keywords: Voter turnout;
More informationECON 450 Development Economics
ECON 450 Development Economics Long-Run Causes of Comparative Economic Development Institutions University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Summer 2017 Outline 1 Introduction 2 3 The Korean Case The Korean
More informationPavel Yakovlev Duquesne University. Abstract
Ideology, Shirking, and the Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives Pavel Yakovlev Duquesne University Abstract This paper examines how the incumbency advantage is related to ideological
More informationThe Dynamic Response of Fractionalization to Public Policy in U.S. Cities
The Dynamic Response of Fractionalization to Public Policy in U.S. Cities Job Market Paper Sreenath Majumder Draft: November 2008 Abstract This paper examines the effect of public policy on population
More informationOutsourcing Household Production: Effects of Foreign Domestic Helpers on Native Labor Supply in Hong Kong
Outsourcing Household Production: Effects of Foreign Domestic Helpers on Native Labor Supply in Hong Kong Patricia Cortes Jessica Pan University of Chicago Graduate School of Business October 31, 2008
More informationDo Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities
Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities January 15, 2007 Fernando Ferreira The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Joseph Gyourko The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania & NBER
More informationMecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy
Mecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy Stephen Ansolabehere Marc Meredith Erik Snowberg Harvard University University of California Institute Pennsylvania Technology
More informationESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF POLICE ON CRIME USING ELECTORAL DATA AND UPDATED DATA
Clemson University TigerPrints All Theses Theses 5-2013 ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF POLICE ON CRIME USING ELECTORAL DATA AND UPDATED DATA Yaqi Wang Clemson University, yaqiw@g.clemson.edu Follow this and additional
More informationThe Effect of Immigration on Native Workers: Evidence from the US Construction Sector
The Effect of Immigration on Native Workers: Evidence from the US Construction Sector Pierre Mérel and Zach Rutledge July 7, 2017 Abstract This paper provides new estimates of the short-run impacts of
More informationGEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN FACULTY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES CHAIR OF MACROECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT Bachelor Seminar Economics of the very long run: Economics of Islam Summer semester 2017 Does Secular
More informationWhat is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico*
What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico* Aaron Chalfin Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley December 5,
More informationBeing a Good Samaritan or just a politician? Empirical evidence of disaster assistance. Jeroen Klomp
Being a Good Samaritan or just a politician? Empirical evidence of disaster assistance Jeroen Klomp Netherlands Defence Academy & Wageningen University and Research The Netherlands Introduction Since 1970
More informationPartisan-Colored Glasses? How Polarization has Affected the Formation and Impact of Party Competence Evaluations
College of William and Mary W&M ScholarWorks Undergraduate Honors Theses Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects 4-2014 Partisan-Colored Glasses? How Polarization has Affected the Formation and Impact
More informationPolitical ignorance & policy preference. Eric Crampton University of Canterbury
Political ignorance & policy preference Eric Crampton University of Canterbury What do we know? Know US House majority party 69% know it Can name their member of Congress 46% know it Know term of House
More informationMacroeconomic Implications of Shifts in the Relative Demand for Skills
Macroeconomic Implications of Shifts in the Relative Demand for Skills Olivier Blanchard* The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the
More informationTable A.2 reports the complete set of estimates of equation (1). We distinguish between personal
Akay, Bargain and Zimmermann Online Appendix 40 A. Online Appendix A.1. Descriptive Statistics Figure A.1 about here Table A.1 about here A.2. Detailed SWB Estimates Table A.2 reports the complete set
More informationDisasters and Incumbent Electoral Fortunes: No Implications for Democratic Competence
Disasters and Incumbent Electoral Fortunes: No Implications for Democratic Competence Scott Ashworth Ethan Bueno de Mesquita February 1, 2013 Abstract A recent empirical literature shows that incumbent
More informationOnline Appendix: Robustness Tests and Migration. Means
VOL. VOL NO. ISSUE EMPLOYMENT, WAGES AND VOTER TURNOUT Online Appendix: Robustness Tests and Migration Means Online Appendix Table 1 presents the summary statistics of turnout for the five types of elections
More informationForecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information Joseph Bafumi, Dartmouth College Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
More informationThe Impact of Having a Job at Migration on Settlement Decisions: Ethnic Enclaves as Job Search Networks
The Impact of Having a Job at Migration on Settlement Decisions: Ethnic Enclaves as Job Search Networks Lee Tucker Boston University This version: October 15, 2014 Abstract Observational evidence has shown
More informationThe Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout
The Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout Alexander Kendall March 29, 2004 1 The Problem According to the Washington Post, Republicans are urged to pray for poor weather on national election days, so that
More informationA Behavioral Measure of the Enthusiasm Gap in American Elections
A Behavioral Measure of the Enthusiasm Gap in American Elections Seth J. Hill April 22, 2014 Abstract What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of
More informationVoter Rationality and Exogenous Shocks: Misattribution of Responsibility for Economic Shocks
Voter Rationality and Exogenous Shocks: Misattribution of Responsibility for Economic Shocks ABSTRACT Elections serve as a democratic mechanism to hold leaders accountable for their actions. Voters are
More informationAttenuation Bias in Measuring the Wage Impact of Immigration. Abdurrahman Aydemir and George J. Borjas Statistics Canada and Harvard University
Attenuation Bias in Measuring the Wage Impact of Immigration Abdurrahman Aydemir and George J. Borjas Statistics Canada and Harvard University November 2006 1 Attenuation Bias in Measuring the Wage Impact
More information1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants
The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States Online Appendix In this additional methodological appendix I present some alternative model specifications
More informationHuman Capital and Income Inequality: New Facts and Some Explanations
Human Capital and Income Inequality: New Facts and Some Explanations Amparo Castelló and Rafael Doménech 2016 Annual Meeting of the European Economic Association Geneva, August 24, 2016 1/1 Introduction
More informationPredicting and Dissecting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2006 U.S. House Election
Predicting and Dissecting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2006 U.S. House Election Jonathan P. Kastellec Andrew Gelman Jamie P. Chandler January 3, 2007 Abstract The Democrats victory in the 2006 election
More informationCorruption, Political Instability and Firm-Level Export Decisions. Kul Kapri 1 Rowan University. August 2018
Corruption, Political Instability and Firm-Level Export Decisions Kul Kapri 1 Rowan University August 2018 Abstract In this paper I use South Asian firm-level data to examine whether the impact of corruption
More informationPredicting Presidential Elections: An Evaluation of Forecasting
Predicting Presidential Elections: An Evaluation of Forecasting Megan Page Pratt Thesis submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the
More informationSelf-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants
Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants George Borjas (1987) Omid Ghaderi & Ali Yadegari April 7, 2018 George Borjas (1987) GSME, Applied Economics Seminars April 7, 2018 1 / 24 Abstract The age-earnings
More informationSocially Optimal Districting: An Empirical Investigation
Preliminary Draft September 2005 Socially Optimal Districting: An Empirical Investigation Abstract This paper provides an empirical exploration of the potential gains from socially optimal districting.
More informationHonors General Exam PART 3: ECONOMETRICS. Solutions. Harvard University April 2014
Honors General Exam Solutions Harvard University April 2014 PART 3: ECONOMETRICS Immigration and Wages Do immigrants to the United States earn less than workers born in the United States? If so, what are
More informationRetrospective Voting
Retrospective Voting Who Are Retrospective Voters and Does it Matter if the Incumbent President is Running Kaitlin Franks Senior Thesis In Economics Adviser: Richard Ball 4/30/2009 Abstract Prior literature
More informationFamily Ties, Labor Mobility and Interregional Wage Differentials*
JRAP (2001)31:1 Family Ties, Labor Mobility and Interregional Wage Differentials* Todd L. Cherry, Ph.D. and Pete T. Tsournos, Ph.D.** Abstract. The applied research reported here examines the impact of
More informationThe Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
The Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail: A Regression Discontinuity Approach Alan Gerber, Daniel Kessler, and Marc Meredith* * Yale University and NBER; Graduate School of Business and Hoover Institution,
More informationThe Economic Consequences of Electoral Accountability Revisited *
The Economic Consequences of Electoral Accountability Revisited * Daniel L. Millimet Assistant Professor Southern Methodist University Daniel M. Sturm Assistant Professor University of Munich John A. List
More informationFemale Migration, Human Capital and Fertility
Female Migration, Human Capital and Fertility Vincenzo Caponi, CREST (Ensai), Ryerson University,IfW,IZA January 20, 2015 VERY PRELIMINARY AND VERY INCOMPLETE Abstract The objective of this paper is to
More informationDo Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities
Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities October 11, 2007 Fernando Ferreira The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Joseph Gyourko The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania & NBER
More informationMigrant Wages, Human Capital Accumulation and Return Migration
Migrant Wages, Human Capital Accumulation and Return Migration Jérôme Adda Christian Dustmann Joseph-Simon Görlach February 14, 2014 PRELIMINARY and VERY INCOMPLETE Abstract This paper analyses the wage
More informationDoes Residential Sorting Explain Geographic Polarization?
Does Residential Sorting Explain Geographic Polarization? Gregory J. Martin * Steven Webster March 13, 2017 Abstract Political preferences in the US are highly correlated with population density, at national,
More informationGame theory and applications: Lecture 12
Game theory and applications: Lecture 12 Adam Szeidl December 6, 2018 Outline for today 1 A political theory of populism 2 Game theory in economics 1 / 12 1. A Political Theory of Populism Acemoglu, Egorov
More informationThe Incumbent Spending Puzzle. Christopher S. P. Magee. Abstract. This paper argues that campaign spending by incumbents is primarily useful in
The Incumbent Spending Puzzle Christopher S. P. Magee Abstract This paper argues that campaign spending by incumbents is primarily useful in countering spending by challengers. Estimates from models that
More informationPersonnel Politics: Elections, Clientelistic Competition, and Teacher Hiring in Indonesia
Personnel Politics: Elections, Clientelistic Competition, and Teacher Hiring in Indonesia Jan H. Pierskalla and Audrey Sacks Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University GPSURR, World Bank
More informationNBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HOW ELECTIONS MATTER: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. John A. List Daniel M. Sturm
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HOW ELECTIONS MATTER: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY John A. List Daniel M. Sturm Working Paper 10609 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10609 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC
More informationAMERICAN JOURNAL OF UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH VOL. 3 NO. 4 (2005)
, Partisanship and the Post Bounce: A MemoryBased Model of Post Presidential Candidate Evaluations Part II Empirical Results Justin Grimmer Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Wabash College
More informationImmigrants Inflows, Native outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impact of Higher Immigration David Card
Immigrants Inflows, Native outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impact of Higher Immigration David Card Mehdi Akhbari, Ali Choubdaran 1 Table of Contents Introduction Theoretical Framework limitation of
More informationMigration and Consumption Insurance in Bangladesh
Migration and Consumption Insurance in Bangladesh Costas Meghir (Yale) Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale) Corina Mommaerts (Wisconsin) Melanie Morten (Stanford) October 18, 2017 Seasonal migration and consumption
More informationIs Corruption Anti Labor?
Is Corruption Anti Labor? Suryadipta Roy Lawrence University Department of Economics PO Box- 599, Appleton, WI- 54911. Abstract This paper investigates the effect of corruption on trade openness in low-income
More informationA Global Economy-Climate Model with High Regional Resolution
A Global Economy-Climate Model with High Regional Resolution Per Krusell Institute for International Economic Studies, CEPR, NBER Anthony A. Smith, Jr. Yale University, NBER February 6, 2015 The project
More informationMidterm Elections Used to Gauge President s Reelection Chances
90 Midterm Elections Used to Gauge President s Reelection Chances --Desmond Wallace-- Desmond Wallace is currently studying at Coastal Carolina University for a Bachelor s degree in both political science
More informationThe Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate
The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate Nicholas Goedert Lafayette College goedertn@lafayette.edu May, 2015 ABSTRACT: This note observes that the pro-republican
More informationUSING PRIMARY ELECTIONS TO CONTROL FOR SELECTION OF U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES
USING PRIMARY ELECTIONS TO CONTROL FOR SELECTION OF U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES KYLE KRETSCHMAN Abstract. Primary elections provide an explicit selection criterion for general election candidates. This
More informationCase Study: Get out the Vote
Case Study: Get out the Vote Do Phone Calls to Encourage Voting Work? Why Randomize? This case study is based on Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods Using a Large-Scale Field Experiment on Voter
More informationNBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INCOME AND DEMOCRACY. Daron Acemoglu Simon Johnson James A. Robinson Pierre Yared
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INCOME AND DEMOCRACY Daron Acemoglu Simon Johnson James A. Robinson Pierre Yared Working Paper 11205 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11205 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050
More informationEconomic Returns to Communist Party Membership: Evidence from Urban Chinese Twins
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 2118 Economic Returns to Communist Party Membership: Evidence from Urban Chinese Twins Hongbin Li Pak Wai Liu Junsen Zhang Ning Ma May 2006 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft
More informationDo Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Finance Papers Wharton Faculty Research 2-1-2009 Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities Fernando V. Ferreira University of Pennsylvania Joseph
More informationDoes Residential Sorting Explain Geographic Polarization?
Does Residential Sorting Explain Geographic Polarization? Gregory J. Martin Steven W. Webster March 23, 2018 Abstract Political preferences in the US are highly correlated with population density, at national,
More informationEducation Benefits of Universal Primary Education Program: Evidence from Tanzania
Education Benefits of Universal Primary Education Program: Evidence from Tanzania Esther DELESALLE October 25, 2016 Abstract The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of education on labor market
More informationPresence of language-learning opportunities abroad and migration to Germany
Presence of language-learning opportunities abroad and migration to Germany Early draft (Do not cite!) Matthias Huber University of Jena Silke Uebelmesser University of Jena and CESifo June 21, 2017 Abstract
More informationWorkers Remittances. and International Risk-Sharing
Workers Remittances and International Risk-Sharing Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov March 6, 2007 Abstract One of the most important potential benefits from the process of international financial integration is the
More informationMecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy
Mecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy Stephen Ansolabehere Marc Meredith Erik Snowberg Harvard University University of California Institute Pennsylvania of
More informationThe President's Party At The Midterm: An Aggregate And Individual-level Analysis Of Seat Loss And Vote Choice In U.S.
University of Central Florida Electronic Theses and Dissertations Masters Thesis (Open Access) The President's Party At The Midterm: An Aggregate And Individual-level Analysis Of Seat Loss And Vote Choice
More informationTrade and Inequality: From Theory to Estimation
Trade and Inequality: From Theory to Estimation Elhanan Helpman, Harvard and CIFAR Oleg Itskhoki, Princeton Marc Muendler, UCSD Stephen Redding, Princeton December 2012 HIMR (Harvard, Princeton, UCSD and
More informationIncumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design.
Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design Forthcoming, Electoral Studies Web Supplement Jens Hainmueller Holger Lutz Kern September
More informationSkill Classification Does Matter: Estimating the Relationship Between Trade Flows and Wage Inequality
Skill Classification Does Matter: Estimating the Relationship Between Trade Flows and Wage Inequality By Kristin Forbes* M.I.T.-Sloan School of Management and NBER First version: April 1998 This version:
More informationStatistical Discrimination, Productivity, and the Height of Immigrants
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Business Economics and Public Policy Papers Wharton Faculty Research 2-2015 Statistical Discrimination, Productivity, and the Height of Immigrants Shing-Yi Wang
More informationSupplementary Materials for Strategic Abstention in Proportional Representation Systems (Evidence from Multiple Countries)
Supplementary Materials for Strategic Abstention in Proportional Representation Systems (Evidence from Multiple Countries) Guillem Riambau July 15, 2018 1 1 Construction of variables and descriptive statistics.
More informationAccounting for the Known Unknowns : Incorporating Uncertainty in Second-Stage Estimation
Accounting for the Known Unknowns : Incorporating Uncertainty in Second-Stage Estimation Christopher N. Lawrence Department of Social Sciences Texas A&M International University Laredo, Texas 78041-1960
More informationThe Distortionary Effects of Power Sharing on Political Corruption and Accountability: Evidence from Kenya
The Distortionary Effects of Power Sharing on Political Corruption and Accountability: Evidence from Kenya Michael Mbate PhD Candidate - London School of Economics and Political Science June 12, 2018 1
More informationStatistical Discrimination, Productivity and the Height of Immigrants
Statistical Discrimination, Productivity and the Height of Immigrants Shing-Yi Wang New York University November 29, 2010 Abstract Building on the economic research that demonstrates a positive relationship
More informationEntry into Electoral Races and the Quality of Representation
Entry into Electoral Races and the Quality of Representation Philipp Tillmann University of Chicago November 2013 Abstract U.S. Congressmen are very likely to be reelected and survey evidence suggests
More informationPeer Effects on the United States Supreme Court
Peer Effects on the United States Supreme Court Richard Holden, Michael Keane and Matthew Lilley November 2, 2017 Abstract Using data on essentially every US Supreme Court decision since 1946, we estimate
More informationOn Estimating The Effects of Legalization: Do Agricultural Workers Really Benefit?
On Estimating The Effects of Legalization: Do Agricultural Workers Really Benefit? Breno Sampaio Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Department of Economics, Professor, Recife, PE, Brazil brenosampaio@hotmail.com
More informationOn Trade Policy and Wages Inequality in Egypt: Evidence from Microeconomic Data
On Trade Policy and Wages Inequality in Egypt: Evidence from Microeconomic Data Population Council March, 2010 Motivation Egypt has undertaken numerous policies that affected trade and in turn, labor market.
More informationDo (naturalized) immigrants affect employment and wages of natives? Evidence from Germany
Do (naturalized) immigrants affect employment and wages of natives? Evidence from Germany Carsten Pohl 1 15 September, 2008 Extended Abstract Since the beginning of the 1990s Germany has experienced a
More informationON ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRANT LEGALIZATION: DO U.S. AGRICULTURAL WORKERS REALLY BENEFIT?
ON ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRANT LEGALIZATION: DO U.S. AGRICULTURAL WORKERS REALLY BENEFIT? BRENO SAMPAIO, GUSTAVO RAMOS SAMPAIO, AND YONY SAMPAIO The question of whether legalization affects immigrants
More informationStatistical Discrimination, Productivity, and the Height of Immigrants
1 Statistical Discrimination, Productivity, and the Height of Immigrants Shing-Yi Wang March 18, 2014 Abstract Building on the economic research that demonstrates a positive relationship between height
More informationPartisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy
Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy Erik J. Engstrom Published by University of Michigan Press Engstrom, J.. Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy.
More informationNBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PERSUASIVE EFFECTS OF DIRECT MAIL: A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY APPROACH. Alan Gerber Daniel Kessler Marc Meredith
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PERSUASIVE EFFECTS OF DIRECT MAIL: A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY APPROACH Alan Gerber Daniel Kessler Marc Meredith Working Paper 14206 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14206 NATIONAL
More information