Who are the SNP? 2008 Annual Donaldson Lecture James Mitchell

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1 Who are the SNP? 2008 Annual Donaldson Lecture James Mitchell TITLE POWERPOINT Thank you for this opportunity to deliver this year s annual Donaldson lecture. It gives me and my colleagues Rob Johns at Strathclyde University and Lynn Bennie in Aberdeen - an opportunity to thank SNP members and SNP Headquarters staff for their cooperation and assistance in our study of the SNP. As you may all remember, we sent a hefty 23 page questionnaire to each of you and to all SNP members at the end of last year, with reminders being sent out in the early part of this year. POWERPOINT ON ESRC PROJECT Peter Murrell and Ian McCann at SNP HQ have been extremely helpful throughout this study and over half the SNP s membership at that time 7112 to be precise - has taken time some taking much more time than we had anticipated to complete the questionnaire. Many SNP members have been in touch with me directly asking about individual questions in the survey and at the same time giving me fascinating insights into the workings and their views of the party. We are now in the early stages of analysing the data and I am pleased to present these preliminary findings. The next stage of the research is underway and I am interviewing many senior party figures. We are very grateful for the time that has already been given to us and to those who have already agreed to be interviewed. Many more of you will be approached. 1

2 Before providing some results, I want to spend a little time reflecting on the state of the SNP and the nature of our study. This is the second occasion I have been invited to deliver the Donaldson Lecture. The theme of my first lecture in 1994 was that politics in Scotland was conducted in the shadow of 1979 that is the referendum and general election of that year. I argued then that until we walked out of that shadow, Scotland would suffer the debilitating politics of grievance, fuelled by the bitter memories of that year cast a shadow over the SNP more than any other party. It fed the long-running tension that had been present in the party from its foundation between those who favoured devolution as a stepping stone to independence and those who feared it was a trap. Suspicions of devolved government were understandably high. Since then, Scottish politics has been transformed by devolution. One aspect of this study is an attempt to explore one part of that transformation. How has the SNP reacted to devolution? What kind of party is it today? Is it a party or a broad based movement? Who are its members and what are its attitudes? It would have been useful had a study such as this been done pre-devolution to compare with our findings. But we have no such point of comparison though it will be interesting to return to look at the SNP in a few years time. It is worth recalling some of the key features of the SNP pre-devolution. 2

3 First, the SNP was a largely voluntary organisation with few people working full-time either as Parliamentarians or party staff. The SNP received few major financial donations - though there were occasional significant bequests. Many of the jobs performed in other parties by either full-time staff or Parliamentarians were done by people in full-time employment outside politics who had limited time available to devote to party matters but managed to devote considerable time nonetheless to party activity, often behind the scenes. The plethora of National Vice Convenorships in the SNP was a reflection of the pressures of operating with few Parliamentarians and limited finances. This was also evident in the lists of Spokesmen and women appointed by the party. In Parliament, SNP MPs had multiple responsibilities. The SNP often reminded me of that scene in Beau Geste, the French Foreign Legion film, in which an attempt is made to make it look as if the fort under attack has many more soldiers defending it than it really has. SNP MPs would appear in all sorts of places defending the party and its beliefs and must have been at least slightly envious of spokesmen and women in other parties with only one policy portfolio. Secondly, in the years before devolution, the extent to which the SNP punched above its weight is striking. Potential SNP support was probably as significant as its actual support in influencing Scottish politics. It is easy to forget that the SNP was never Scotland largest or second largest party BOTH in terms of votes cast for it and the number of Parliamentarians before devolution. More Parliamentarians were elected in the first elections to the Scottish Parliament in 1999 than had been elected in the party s entire history before then. 3

4 Indeed, the SNP was Scotland s second party in terms of votes cast for it only twice before devolution: in October 1974 and in And it was never more than Scotland s third party in terms of seats won even at the high point in October Only in the elections to the Scottish Parliament in 1999 did the SNP become Scotland s unambiguous second party both in terms of votes and seats won becoming Scotland s first party last year. This was a remarkable transformation in a short period of time. Thirdly, the SNP was distant from governmental power throughout the pre-devolution period. Manifestos were solemnly drawn up but with no real prospect of ever having to be implemented. If there ever was an expectation than a majority of SNP MPs would be returned it had little basis in reality. The best hope was that the SNP would hold the balance of power in the Commons and be able to exert influence that way. The further a party is from power, the less reason it has to offer a serious programme of government. The SNP s ethos in common with Scottish politics generally was oppositional. It could hardly be any different. The absence of a Scottish Parliament had a corrupting effect on Scottish politics including the SNP. Corrupting in the sense that it prevented authoritative decision-making, it discouraged facing the difficult choices that come with government or the prospect of government. We are all aware of Lord Acton s dictum, Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. But the context in which Acton s comments were made is usually forgotten. He was not talking about the 4

5 corrupting effects of democratic government but the corrupting effects of unelected power. In fact, power in democracies with elected government is more likely to foster responsibility. And that is exactly what we have seen with the SNP. The membership The relative absence of Parliamentarians and large donors corporate or otherwise pre-devolution meant that the main resource available to the SNP was its membership. It may be fashionable to take a cynical view of political activity, but for every careerist in every party, there are scores, even hundreds of ordinary members who work away almost unnoticed by the pundits. Indeed, any careerist in the SNP must have been, until recently anyway, misguided or of limited ambition. The SNP was its membership. Potentially, as a Parliamentary party the membership might be thought to have become less important. I will return to why this is not the case in my conclusion. There is little doubt that pre-devolution, the SNP s membership was its bedrock, providing money, time and effort to a cause that most commentators thought was hopeless until quite recently. But we knew little about them. We had some idea of the activists who attended annual conference and national councils. Students of this party used to take particular note of who was up and who was down in the annual elections to the National Executive and National Council some of you will recall Saturdays at SNP conference when members, journalists and observers 5

6 scribbled down the results of NEC elections, trying to interpret these results - but now little attention is paid to these. Commentary was based on partial information drawn from the activists at conference, observation of meetings and elections and, in some cases, a good dose of prejudice. A number of assumptions were often made about the members. First, it was assumed that the SNP had a high proportion of young members. Secondly, in the 1970s it was thought that there were disproportionately more women than men inside the SNP. Tam Dalyell expressed the view in his book, Devolution: The Break Up of Britain, that devolution and nationalism appealed to women more than men because women were fickle, emotional creatures. Thirdly, it was often assumed that the members came from across the traditional left-right spectrum even if policy and the image projected was of a moderate left of centre party. Fourthly, that its membership was disproportionately concentrated in areas such as the North East of Scotland. We simply have never had any hard evidence until now to say anything authoritative about the membership of the SNP. So, who are the SNP today? Let me answer this by offering a brief socio-demographic profile of the party, followed by a profile of members identities and attitudes. Two features of the SNP s membership stand out. Two-thirds of members are men and the average age is 59, much older than anticipated. 6

7 Historically, women have played a prominent role in the SNP so it is surprising to see such a low proportion of women members. With women making up 13 of the SNP s 47 MSPs (27.7%), the party might claim that it comes reasonably close to achieving the proportion of women MSPs as it has members, but that is only because it has such a low proportion of women members. Less than 8% of members are below the age of 35; and these young members are considerably outnumbered by those over the age of 75. Overall, nearly two thirds of members (64.4%) are aged 55 or above; and nearly 40% are 65 or older. POWERPOINT ON Age of all members % However, in the last few years, the party has been attracting younger members. POWERPOINT ON Age of members joining since This is likely to remain a major challenge. We know from research across liberal democracies that parties including those that with increasing membership often struggle to attract young members. Religion What are the backgrounds of SNP members? Religion played a significant role throughout twentieth century Scottish politics and it is interesting to note the religious identities of SNP members. 7

8 POWERPOINT ON RELIGION SNP Members (%) Scottish Public (2001 census) (%) No religion/religion not stated Church of Scotland Catholic Other Christian Other TOTALS The most interesting finding here is the high proportion of members who assert no religious affiliation. Otherwise, the Church of Scotland- Catholic ratio leans slightly towards the Church of Scotland but contradicts the old myth already largely discredited - that the SNP cannot attract Catholics to its ranks. Regional breakdown of membership Membership of the party is fairly evenly spread across Scotland. There is certainly no evidence that one area dominates the party but there are differences across the country. POWERPOINT ON Regional distribution of SNP members, electorate and population Region % of membership % of electorate % of SNP total vote North East Scotland 16.7 South of Scotland Lothians Central Scotland Glasgow Highlands & Islands 10.2 West of Scotland

9 Mid Scotland & Fife The proportion of SNP membership in each region is in the left hand column. The middle column shows the corresponding proportions among the population as a whole, and the right-hand column percentage of the SNP s total list vote (not, let me stress, the proportion of the SNP vote in each of these regions). Apart from the Highlands and Islands, each region is broadly similar in population size (from % of the total Scottish electorate) but regional diversity as a percentage of the SNP s list vote across Scotland differs markedly (from 8.8% in Glasgow to 16.6% in the North East). The most striking differences are found in the South of Scotland where the SNP came a close second to Labour in 2007 but its membership constitutes only 4.2% of the party s overall membership. In North East Scotland, on the other hand, the SNP won 40.5% of the vote in 2007, more than twice as many votes as Labour in second place, and while its membership is higher than expected in terms of size of the electorate, the difference is less pronounced than might have been expected. The region with the largest SNP membership is Lothians but this is not reflected in its share of total SNP vote. Evidently, the relationship between share of vote and membership is not straightforward. I am not suggesting that a large membership is unimportant for electoral advance, only that other factors come into play. We found no real regional difference in how active party members were, no truth in suggestions that members north of the Tay worked 9

10 harder than those south of the Tay or vice versa. But there was a greater tendency for SNP members in Lothians to have come over from other parties than in other parts of Scotland. POWERPOINT ON FORMER PARTY MEMBERSHIP About 14% of SNP had members had been members of another party, usually Labour. Labour 43.6% Cons 19.9 LibDem 11.8 SSP/Solidarity 4.0 Greens 2.8 Plaid Cymru 2.6 Other 15.4 In many cases, the Other refers to parties outside the UK. National Identity When we turn to national identity, we find some intriguing responses. POWERPOINT ON National identity Which best describes how you see yourself? % Scottish Not British 77.4 More Scottish than British 16.0 Equally Scottish and British 2.6 More British than Scottish 0.2 British Not Scottish 0.3 Other 3.5 The most striking figure here is the 16% of SNP who members who describe themselves as more Scottish than British. While this is a minority of members, it does suggest that having a purely Scottish 10

11 identity is neither a prerequisite for SNP membership, nor supporting independence. Notably, 51% of SNP members have lived outside Scotland for 6 months or more. Most of these (47.2%) had lived in England though 44.9% had lived somewhere outside the UK or Ireland. In keeping with the civic nationalist image that the SNP projects, its membership includes a significant proportion of people born in England: 6.7% of SNP members were born in England, compared with the 8.1% recorded in the 2001 census. People born in England who have come to live in Scotland are hardly less likely to join the SNP than those born here. Some intriguing results emerge when we look at members first preferences on the constitution. Independence in Europe is supported by about two-thirds of party members with just over one in five members supporting independence outside the EU but just over one in ten support more powers for the Scottish Parliament as their first preference. The tiny 0.3% who want to abolish the Scottish Parliament represents only 21 people a suspicious figure that appears in a number of places in this data who, one assumes, are either confused or simply like to play games with academics and pollsters. POWERPOINT ON First preference among constitutional options Constitutional option % Abolish Scottish Parliament 0.3 Status quo 0.7 More powers 11.9 Independence within EU 65.4 Independence outwith EU

12 When asked to rank matters that should be devolved in order of priority, members overwhelmingly mentioned economic and taxation powers well above any other matter. POWERPOINT ON priorities to come under Scottish Parliament control First priority % Economic and taxation 55.7 Defence and foreign affairs 12.6 Social security & pensions 6.7 Energy 6.2 Broadcasting 4.6 Trade and currency 4.5 Immigration and extradition 4.0 European affairs 2.0 Transport 1.4 Abortion and embryo research 1.2 Civil service 1.1 Left-right spectrum It is standard practice to consider a basket of attitudes when considering a person s or a party s attitude on the left-right and liberal authoritarian spectrums. These are just some of the findings illustrative of a wider picture. POWERPOINT ON Left-right attitudes Strongly Agree agree % % There is one law for the rich and one law for the poor It is not government s responsibility to Neither % Disagree % Strongly disagree % 12

13 provide a job for everyone who wants one The Government should cut spending in order to cut tax Turning now to members attitudes on the traditional left-right spectrum, we see a fairly consistent if pretty moderate - consensus on the left. Other data tends to confirm this. POWERPOINT ON BAR CHART HERE - POWERPOINT A bar chart allows to consider how this relates to the electorate as a whole on one of these issues One law for the rich and one for the poor. The SNP appears to be to the left of the electorate as a whole. POWERPOINT ON Liberal-authoritarian attitudes Strongly agree % Agree % Neither % Disagree % The death penalty can never be justified In principle, ID cards are a good idea The law should always be obeyed, even if a particular law is wrong Responses on this spectrum are rarely as coherent as on the left-right Strongly disagree % spectrum. But, the SNP members appear more liberal than the electorate as a whole. 13

14 POWERPOINT ON BAR CHART ON law should always be obeyed, even if wrong perhaps influenced by the modest engagement with civil disobedience in the past of the SNP. Strategy: pacts, compromises and independence Finally, let us return to party strategy. Strategy and attitudes to devolution in particular had long been a major cause of tension inside the SNP. How has devolution affected this debate? The evidence appears pretty conclusive. Any feeling that devolution undermines the case for independence is difficult to find amongst SNP members. The responses to a series of questions point towards one central conclusion pragmatism is the order of the day in the SNP today. There is a great deal of data on this slide as this is such a central part of our enquiry. POWERPOINT ON Attitudes regarding pacts, compromises and furthering independence Strongly agree Agree Neither Disagree Strongly disagree Primary goal is independence; all else is secondary To achieve independence, concentrate on making devolution work To achieve independence, work with other parties Primary goal independence but may

15 need to take second place Devolution makes independence more difficult to achieve Being in coalition in the SP involves compromise on independence SNP should stand by principles even if it loses support SNP should explore pacts with other parties, even if it involves compromises Responses to the first statement (Primary goal is independence; all else is secondary) suggest an uncompromising attitude, with widespread agreement that the party s goal of independence should be primary and all else secondary. However, many of the other responses suggest willingness to cooperate and compromise. Many respondents also agreed that, while independence was the SNP s primary goal, it might sometimes need to take second place. There was also considerable agreement that in order to achieve independence it was necessary to make devolution work and to work with other parties. More formal pacts with other parties were slightly less popular, but were still favoured on balance, and respondents tended to disagree that coalitions in the Scottish Parliament would obstruct the path to independence. These figures, doubtless, reflect the situation prevailing when the survey was conducted. The SNP had formed a minority government with the 15

16 support of the two Green Members of the Scottish Parliament. Taken together, the results in this slide indicate support for pragmatism and an acknowledgement of the need for cooperation, albeit with doubts concerning the value of coalition. Above all, there is little evidence of potential for a fundamentalist backlash against devolution. Conclusion To return to my discussion at the outset, it is difficult to overstate the impact that devolution has had on the SNP. In a prescient article written in 2000 in the Scots Independent, James Halliday immediate predecessor of Arthur Donaldson as SNP leader, wrote POWERPOINT ON HALLIDAY QUOTE For good or ill the character of the party has changed for ever as the new century begins. We are now, as a result of our successes, developing as other parties have developed; and will find, as they did that power of initiative and decision will increasingly belong to those of our colleagues who have been elected to something. They are now professionals, and will rapidly acquire skills and general know-how which Parliamentary work involves, and will have the ongoing research and publicity strengths which elevate their expertise far beyond anything that our amateur membership has, until now, been able to provide. (Halliday 2000). More than that, the SNP has transformed itself into a party of government with remarkable ease. It is difficult to see evidence of the old fundamentalist-gradualist tension that once afflicted the SNP. There is little evidence that the SNP is a motley collection of views and beliefs 16

17 that encompass everything from the far right to the far left as one journalist recently wrote. The evidence shows it to be a coherent political party, rather than a broad-based movement. But before SNP members assume that all is well, let me stress three major challenges that lie ahead for the party. POWERPOINT ON CONCLUSIONS First, the average of the membership is high. The SNP can take scant comfort from knowing that this is true of its rivals too or that across liberal democracies political parties including many that are attracting increasing numbers of members are having difficulty attracting young members. All parties all organisations need to regenerate and new young members are an essential element in this. The evidence suggests that it has, of late, been doing so but this is not something that can be taken for granted long term. More significantly, the SNP struggles to attract women into its membership. With 13 women out of its 47 MSPs (27.6%), the SNP is not far under the proportion of women members but this is one of the few ways that the proportion of SNP women members looks good. A major challenge lies ahead in attracting women members and ensuring that women members have the opportunities to rise in reasonable proportions to any level in the SNP. Secondly, while the evidence points overwhelmingly to a party at ease with itself I haven t shown you attitudes towards the leadership to spare 17

18 the blushes of the leadership and Headquarters staff. It must always be remembered that the context in which this survey was conducted could hardly have been more favourable. Success breeds positive attitudes and unity. The real challenge will lie ahead when as happens to all parties the SNP hits a rough patch. Finally, as someone who has been accused by SNP members in the past that my description of fundamentalists and gradualists was unwarranted, I would readily concede that this old tension has lost so much of its edge simply because of devolution and the manner in which the SNP has embraced the new institutions of Scottish Government. POWERPOINT ON MORE INFORMATION But I want to conclude by reminding you of Oliver Brown s famous comment, I regret the day I compromised the unity of my party by admitting a second member. The SNP is a big party, a growing party and complete unity is neither possible nor healthy. New tensions are bound to emerge and one that may come to the fore is that between those who believe that the SNP s raison d etre of independence might be compromised in pursuit of power for its own sake. There is no evidence of this tension at present but it must be a distinct possibility in a different context. All non-conservative parties are prone to such a tension. It is not, necessarily, an unhealthy tension. This does not mean that the SNP is potentially riven by deep divisions but achieving the right balance between compromising unity, by the pursuit of pragmatic government and maintaining its radical cutting edge is a 18

19 constant struggle. I see no reason to believe that the SNP will be any different from any other party in favour of change in this respect. This leads to my final comment. One aspect of the SNP has not changed its members remain its most important resource. Rank and file members those who do the work, still provide the SNP with most of its money, provide the personnel for local government, Parliament and national office as well as countless branch and constituency offices are motivated by a sense of purpose. A party that forgets this is a party is in danger of losing its way and losing its members. We can all think of a once great party that lost its way and is losing its members. One role of the members, especially its activist base, is to ensure that this never happens. Again, let me thank you for taking the time and trouble to assist in this study and for coming along and hearing me today. 19