What China Wants. Weiyi Shi Ph.D. Candidate Dept. of Political Science UCSD February 24, David Shambaugh: China Goes Global

Transcription

1 What China Wants Weiyi Shi Ph.D. Candidate Dept. of Political Science UCSD February 24, 2015 David Shambaugh: China Goes Global

2 BBC, The Chinese Are Coming, Documentary Series, Episode 2

3 Outline China s role in global economy and LAC economies Domestic political economy behind the globalizing China Is China s rise a threat? China s strategies in LAC, Africa and SEA. Risks and Opportunities for LAC. How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise?

4 China in the World Economy The world s second largest economy 8.2 trillion USD in % of global incremental GDP The world s largest trading nation $3.87 trillion in 2012 Top trading partner for 124 countries The world s third largest international investor The most populous (1.35 billion, 19% of world) Middle income (similar to many LAC countries)

5 LAC and China: Trade Dependence on resource and commodity exports to China The Dutch Disease? Manufacturing displacement Manufacturing imports Competition in the global value chain

6 Within Sector Dominance Table 1: Five Countries, Eight Sectors, Dominate LAC Trade to China (2009) Sector Share of Total LAC Exports to China Country (Share of Total LAC Exports to China in Sector) Copper Alloys 17.9% Chile(90%) Iron ore and concentrates 17.3% Brazil(89%) Soybeans and other seeds 16.8% Brazil(83%), Argentina(16%) Ores and concentrates of base metals 13.5% Chile(47%), Peru(39%) Crude petroleum 4.5% Brazil(65%), Colombia(20%) Soybean oil and other oils 4.5% Argentina(79%), Brazil(20%) Pulp and waste paper 4.4% Brazil(55%), Chile(43%) Feedstuff 2.4% Peru(63%), Chile(30%) TOTAL 81.3% Source: Author s calculations from United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics. Source: Gallagher (2010).

7 Export Dependence on China Source: Ferchen and Herrero (2010). LAC s dependence on commodity export was there before China. Dependence on export to China may be exaggerated.

8 China replaces the west as biggest player

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10 Asymmetric Dependence? Asymmetry in China s Trade Volume with the World, Source: Shi and Yue (2014). China s economy is about 50% dependent on external trade, much higher than the U.S. and EU.

11 The level of imports of intermediate goods for Central and South America, Africa, and Australia and Oceania was low, especially for intra-regional exchanges all with shares of below 30 per cent of total imports of intermediate goods. This reflects the fact that these regions are still newcomers to international production chains. Source: WTO-JETRO, Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East Asia.

12 LAC and China: Lending Lender of last resort? Source: China-LAC Finance Database (2013). No strings attached? Oil backed loans.

13 LAC and China: Investments State capitalism? The prominence of stateowned enterprises a byproduct of resource focus. Diversifying investments? Environmental and development implications - catch me if you can!

14 Diversifying Investments? Resource dominance will continue in the near term. Caveat on Chinese OFDI data. Source: Gallagher (2010).

15 The Curious Case of the Nicaragua Canal (50bn) China s overseas infrastructure investments are often state-led. HKND established in 2012; Wang Jing the sole shareholder; relatively unknown in China State partners: China Railway and Xugong Concession of 100 years. Reportedly exempt from local taxes and commercial regulations? Wang Jiang also operates in satellites (another state monopoly sector), mining (Cambodia), and construction of the Crimean port (?).

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17 Outline China s role in global economy and LA economies Domestic political economy behind the globalizing China China s strategies in LAC, Africa and SEA. Is China s rise a threat? How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise?

18 Domestic Political Economy of China s Globalization: Unpacking China Inc. Single party, collective leadership Partially liberalized economy Economic growth a matter of political survival strategic sectors high-level policy planning ( 顶层设计 ) Fragmented and decentralized policymaking and implementation Companies have varying ties to the state

19 Unpacking China Inc. State Preferences (Unified elite?) Policies (fragmented and decentralized) Firms (varying ties to the state) Economic Outcomes

20 Why Go Global 走出去 The Chinese government: Secure resources: energy security, food security.. Diversify foreign reserve Build national champions Industrial overcapacity Economic diplomacy Chinese companies/investors: Profit driven or fulfilling government mandates?

21 Chinese Firms are Heterogeneous State Owned Enterprises The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) Private More partnership between the two

22 SOEs Have Greater State Support 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# Subsidies#to#fixed#and#opera9ng#costs# Zero#or#low#interest#loans# Free#or#low#cost#insurane# Preferen9al#access#to#foreign#exchange# Private# SOE# Preferen9al#access#to#reCimport#quota# No#support# Source: 2013 China Outbound Direct Investment Survey; Shi (2014).

23 Chinese OFDI Projects: All Projects No data Source: Shi (2014).

24 Chinese OFDI Projects: Share (%) of SOE Projects No data Source: Shi (2014).

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26 China s Diplomatic Meetings: China s Trade Volume with the World, Source: Shi and Yue (2014).

27 China s Strategies in LAC, SEA, and Africa Is China pursuing the same strategies in these regions? Why and why not? Does China pose similar economic and political challenges for LAC countries as it does other regions (Africa and Southeast Asia)? Why and why not?

28 China s Strategies in LAC, SEA, and Africa LAC Africa SEA Similar Driven by economic status of Taiwan and Non-interference interests and dynamics (exception: other diplomatic flash points ) Different (determined mostly by geopolitics, endowments, and stages of development) Backyard of the U.S. Greater focus on natural resource Competitor Amalgamation of aid and investments Infrastructure Manufacturing for African markets Within China s sphere of influence Manufacturing spillover

29 Risks and Opportunities for LAC Countries How sustainable is China s growth? How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? The role of the United States?

30 How Sustainable Is China s Growth? Political survival tied to economic growth Lower target growth rate and movement to non-coastal regions Growing middle class and consumption-led growth (without too much success) Investment side: paradox of resource shortage and industrial overcapacity / asset inflation Consumption side: Lack of social safety net Less export dependency (without too much success) New industrial model and focus on innovation

31 How Sustainable Is China s Growth? Mounting bad loans and a debt crisis? Leadership change Xi s anti-corruption campaign

32 Risks and Opportunities for LAC Countries How sustainable is China s growth? How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? The role of the United States?

33 How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise?

34 How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? China is pragmatic. Not a hegemon. No paternalism.

35 How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? China is pragmatic. Not a hegemon. No paternalism. Avoiding the Dutch disease and resource curse?

36 How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? China is pragmatic. Not a hegemon. No paternalism. Avoiding the Dutch disease and resource curse? Environmental and developmental implications?

37 How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? China is pragmatic. Not a hegemon. No paternalism. Avoiding the Dutch disease and resource curse? Environmental and developmental implications? Will China damage democracy and governance in LAC?

38 How can LAC countries benefit more from China s rise? China is pragmatic. Not a hegemon. No paternalism. Avoiding the Dutch disease and resource curse? Environmental and developmental implications? Will China damage democracy and governance in LAC? Changing political coalitions in LAC?

39 What LAC Has Done So Far Natural Resource Stabilization Funds Pacific Alliance New industrial policy Edging closer to the U.S.? The role of the U.S.?

40 Is China s Rise a Threat? Official doctrine of non-interference. Diplomatic activities driven primarily by economic interests. Active participation in international organizations. Limited capacity for power projection - this may change. Power Transition Theory - dissatisfied power - but China primarily a beneficiary of current order. Future is uncertain.