Trends in New Jersey Migration:

Transcription

1 Trends in New Jersey Migration: Housing, Employment, and Taxation Authors: Cristobal Young Charles Varner Douglas S. Massey Richard F. Keevey, Director Policy Research Institute for the Region September 2008

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3 Acknowledgements Funding for this research was provided by Princeton University and by the New Jersey Office of Economic Growth. The New Jersey Division of Taxation generously provided special run data. Authors Cristobal Young is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Sociology at Princeton University. He holds an M.A. in Economics and a B.A. in Economics and Sociology from the University of Victoria (Canada). He specializes in labor market analysis and statistical methods. Charles Varner is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Sociology at Princeton University. He holds an A.B. from Harvard University and from 2005 to 2008 was a Graduate Research Fellow of the National Science Foundation. His current research focuses on the politics of immigration and race. Douglas S. Massey is Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs at Princeton University. Dr. Massey s research focuses on international migration, race and housing, discrimination, education, urban poverty and Latin America. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Philosophical Society. He is currently president of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences and he is past president of the American Sociological Association and the Population Association of America.

4 Contents Executive Summary 2 Data Sources 7 Part I. Census Bureau Population and Migration Estimates 8 Broad state and county level population and migration trends Part II. American Community Survey Data 12 Determinants of out migration and in migration Net migration by socio demographic group Characteristics of New Jersey out migrant destination states General relationship between income and net migration Domestic vs. international in migrants Part III. New Jersey Income Tax Data 27 Migration among New Jersey s Half Millionaires State Income Tax Revenue Impact of the Half Millionaire Tax Part IV. Conclusion: The Economic Impact of Migration for New Jersey 35 References 43 Appendix A. Migration and Income: New Jersey and Its Neighbors Appendix B. Top 20 Origin States of New Jersey In Migrants 1

5 Executive Summary This study provides an empirical analysis of recent migration into and out of New Jersey. We focus on the social and demographic characteristics of migrants in order to inform public policy. While New Jersey has much to do to ensure the future vitality of the state and its residents, the state s ability to attract and retain a highly educated and highly compensated workforce remains strong. Methodology The study draws upon three main data sets. The U.S. Census Bureau s population program provides official estimates of aggregate migration trends. To gain insight into the social and demographic characteristics of migrants, we use the Census Bureau s American Community Survey, which provides a random sample of migrants for the years Finally, we analyze New Jersey state income tax data to assess the migration patterns of New Jersey households earning more than $500,000 in annual income. Study Findings The High Cost of Living and New Jersey s Brain Gain In broad terms, the data indicate, first, that out migration from New Jersey to other states is driven by low income individuals; and second, that the state is seeing a modest net brain gain of highly educated people moving into New Jersey. The data also indicate that the high cost of living (and especially the high cost of housing) is the main factor that leads to the state s net out migration. The impact of the half millionaire tax on the migration of New Jersey s wealthiest households is small. New Jersey s Domestic Migration Patterns: Out flow of Lower Income Residents; In flow of Higher Income Residents The U.S. Census Bureau s migration estimates show that New Jersey has experienced net domestic out migration since at least This has closely 2

6 paralleled the overall migration trends in the northeastern United States. On average, New Jersey loses 5.5 residents per 1000 population each year. New Jersey sees both inflows and outflows of residents. To look at the balance of these population flows, we calculate the net gain or loss per 100 out migrants. We compute this statistic for a wide range of socio demographic groups. New Jersey s net domestic out migration is primarily occurring at the bottom end of the income distribution level. Below the state s median family income, there is a net loss of 26 people for every 100 out migrants. However, above New Jersey s median income, there is a net gain of 5 people per 100 out migrants. Among working people, net out migration is essentially zero (a net loss of1.8 per 100 out migrants). Net out flows consist of people who are either unemployed (33.6 per 100 out migrants) or out of the labor force (30.3 per 100 out migrants). These net outflows have helped raise the employment to population ratio in New Jersey. Most New Jersey out migrants move to states that impose higher state income taxes. This is because, first, New Jersey s income tax rates for lower income individuals (1.4% to 1.75%) are well below that of most other states. Second, most of the net out migrants have low incomes. State income tax policy does not explain why people are moving out of New Jersey. New Jersey out migrants tend to move to states that have much lower property values (35% lower), property taxes (41% lower) and overall costs of living (17% lower). Destination states also have notably lower average incomes, substantially higher crime rates, higher infant and child mortality; slightly lower school quality, but somewhat warmer winters. Overall, it appears that net out migration is due to the high cost of living (especially the high cost of housing and property tax) in New Jersey. 3

7 The states with migration patterns most similar to New Jersey are California, New York, and Massachusetts. These states, like New Jersey, are experiencing net out migration driven by lower income individuals. All of these states have a high cost of living and high housing prices. Factors such as tax rates, climate, and crime rates do not appear to explain the migration patterns in these states. While New Jersey has, for a long time, experienced net domestic out migration, this is not a symptom of economic decline in the state. On the contrary, out migration is largely a consequence of regional inflation in the cost of living that makes New Jersey difficult to afford for lower income residents. Outmigration from New Jersey is a byproduct of prosperity, not decline. Domestic Migration Patterns of New Jersey s Half Millionaires and Income Growth among the State s Top Earners As a result of the new 8.97% New Jersey tax rate on annual income above $500,000, a key issue in the policy debate concerns whether the state s half millionaires are fleeing the state after the imposition of the tax in In other words, some analysts have suggested that the new bracket makes New Jersey a less desirable residential choice for half millionaires, causing some of them to seek greener tax pastures. We note that in spite of net out migration, the number of half millionaires in New Jersey has increased sharply in recent years, from 26,000 in 2002 to 44,000 in 2006 (a 70% increase). Income growth among high earners has led to a tremendous increase in the number of people who fall into the half millionaire tax bracket. Using New Jersey tax records, we estimate that the new half millionaire tax rate has generated an average of $895 million per year in tax revenues, rising from $739 million in 2004 to over $1 billion in The data suggest that there was an increase in net out migration of half millionaire households after the new tax rate went into effect in However, the effect is small. We estimate that New Jersey loses, at most, an 4

8 additional 67 half millionaire households per year to other states. In addition, we estimate that up to 287 half millionaire households per year may choose not to move to New Jersey as a consequence of the new tax bracket. This suggests a total loss of about 350 half millionaire households per year relative to the current New Jersey population of 44,000 half millionaire households. The foregone tax revenue associated with the missing households amounts to approximately $38 million per year. In our view, this is a small side effect of a tax policy that generated more than $1 billion in Migration s Fiscal Impact on New Jersey It is not clear that net out migration has a negative fiscal impact for the state government. Understanding the fiscal impact requires a full cost benefit analysis. For example, adding one million people to New Jersey would greatly strain government services and public resources and amenities. However, adding one million people would presumably bring in enough additional tax revenue to cover these costs. We suspect that in a very high density state such as New Jersey, population growth is more costly and difficult to manage than outmigration. We note that income losses to the New Jersey economy from out migration are in large part illusory. An out migration of employers and jobs would lead to a reduction of per capita GDP in the state. However, an outflow of labor supply does not: it either creates new job vacancies or reduces the number of unemployed. This is beneficial for workers and job seekers in New Jersey. Indeed, the data show that unemployment is, in part, being exported to other states. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations The economic impact of migration, in our view, is ambiguous, but we contend that what matters is productivity (per capita income). Out migration can be alarming as a possible symptom of economic decline or deteriorating 5

9 productivity. However, New Jersey s out migration is characterized by a state economy with high and rising incomes and below average unemployment; an extremely expensive and rapidly appreciating housing stock; and net in flows of people with advanced education. All of the latter are signs that the growing affluence of New Jersey is pushing out low income individuals who are simply unable to afford the high cost of living. New Jersey s experience is in contrast to areas like Detroit, Michigan, where outmigration is characterized by falling wages, high unemployment, falling housing prices and modest in flows of residents with low education and low labor force participation. It is under these circumstances that out migration is a symptom of economic decline. New Jersey has held its position as an extremely high income state, despite almost two decades of continuous net domestic out migration. The state has the second highest average income in the union. As such, our report highlights the need for policy analysts to better understand the migration process. To study income or tax losses due to migration, one must look at the migration of employers and jobs (income earning positions), not the migration of workers and job seekers. While this would require further research and different types of data, we see little evidence of an out migration of jobs or employers. In summary, migration out of New Jersey is almost entirely due to low income individuals moving to areas with lower living costs. The most important step to reducing out migration would be to improve the affordability of housing in the state, particularly for low income residents. 6

10 Data Sources This study draws upon three main data sets: (1) the Census Bureau population and migration estimates, (2) the Census Bureau s American Community Survey, and (3) New Jersey individual income tax data. The Census Bureau s population program provides official estimates of migration. The drawback of these data is that they only provide information about aggregate trends. To gain insight into the socio demographic characteristics of migrants, one requires more detailed, micro level data. For this, we draw on the American Community Survey, which offers an extensive random sample of migrants for the years Finally, because we are particularly interested in the effect of the half millionaire tax on migration patterns, we analyze New Jersey state income tax records. These records were provided to us by the New Jersey Division of Taxation, after removing all identifying information. The tax records provide detailed data on high income earners. In this study, we approach each data set with a set of key questions. For the Census migration estimates, what are the general patterns of migration into and out of New Jersey? How have these patterns changed over time? Turning to the American Community Survey, what are the socio demographic characteristics of those who move in and out of New Jersey? For example, is New Jersey losing highly educated, high income individuals? Moreover, when people leave New Jersey, to what states do they move? Do they tend to move to states with lower taxes? Finally, using the New Jersey tax records, has the out migration of very high earners increased since the new 8.97% tax bracket (the half millionaire tax ) was established? 7

11 Part I. Census Bureau Population and Migration Estimates The current (2007) population of New Jersey is estimated at 8.68 million. Graph 1 shows the annual population growth rate between 1980 and Population growth was 0.2 percent in 2007, down from 0.9 percent in Graph 1. New Jersey Population Growth Rate, % 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% This recent slowdown in population growth is largely attributable to net outmigration from New Jersey to other states of the union. 1 Two other sources of population growth, natural increase (more births than deaths) and net international in migration, have changed little in recent years. As shown in Graph 2, there has been a continuous flow of net domestic outmigration from New Jersey since at least 1991, averaging about 5.4 net outmigrants per 1000 New Jersey residents. The net out migration rate increased sharply from 2002 to 2006, rising from 3.6 per 1000 to 8.8 per The net domestic out flow slowed somewhat in 2007 to 8.0 per In absolute terms, New Jersey s net out migration was 69,160 people in This report primarily addresses this type of migration. Unless otherwise noted, references to migration mean domestic migration i.e., migration between the states of the United States of America. 8

12 Graph 2. Net Out Migration from New Jersey and the Northeast, Net Out-Migration per New Jersey North Northeast In many ways, migration is more region specific than state specific. State trends are part of larger regional trends, notably the general migration of people from the Northeast to the South. And within New Jersey, migration patterns also follow a basic national trend: movement away from the high density cities and inner suburbs to the low density suburban, exurban, and rural areas. Net migration patterns in New Jersey have closely paralleled those of the Northeast region in general. Indeed, there has been a broad trend of population movement from the Northeast ( 5.9 per 1000) to the South (+4.2 per 1000). 2 Since 1991, the share of the US population in the Northeast has fallen from 20% to 18%, while the population share of the South has risen from 34% to 36%. Nevertheless, New Jersey s net out migration has increased relative to the Northeast region. Between 1991 and 2003, New Jersey s out migration rate averaged 1.0 per 1000 lower than the Northeast regional rate. Since 2004, New Jersey s rate has averaged 1.0 per 1000 higher than the Northeast regional rate (see Graph 2). 2 The West has seen slight inflows over the period (+0.5 per 1000), while the Midwest has seen moderate outflows ( 1.9 per 1000). 9

13 The average annual net migration rates for each state in the Northeast region are shown in Table 1. New York ( 10.7) faces far higher net out migration than the rest of the Northeast; New Jersey ranks second in this respect, but the outmigration rates for Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts are much the same. New Hampshire stands out for its strong net in migration (+3.5), though Maine and Vermont also experience net inflows. Table 1. Average Annual Net Migration per 1000 residents in Northeastern States, Within New Jersey, out migration has primarily occurred in the northern counties that are closely tied in with the New York metropolitan area: Hudson, Essex, Passaic, and Union counties. In contrast, other counties are seeing significant in migration: e.g., Ocean, Gloucester, Warren, and Burlington counties. As shown in Table 2 below, there are 12 counties with net outmigration in New Jersey. On average, these counties have a population density of almost 3400 people per square mile, and an average property value of $395,000. In contrast, in the 9 counties with net in migration, population density is about 430 per square mile (about one eighth the average density of the net out migration counties), and an average property value of about $280,000 (roughly $115,000 lower than the average in the out migration counties). In short, congestion and housing costs whether compared across New Jersey s counties or, as we show below, across states are key factors in explaining recent migration trends. State Net Migration New York New Jersey -5.5 Connecticut -5.3 Rhode Island -5.3 Massachusetts -5.2 Pennsylvania -1.6 Vermont 0.6 Maine 1.2 New Hampshire

14 Table 2. Average Annual Net Migration Rates, Population Density, and Average Property Values, by New Jersey County, Counties with Net Out-Migration Counties with Net In-Migration Migration Median Migration Median Per 1000 home Per 1000 Population home population Density value population Density value.hudson County ,957 $387,100.Ocean County $310,800.Essex County ,288 $409,300.Gloucester County $226,900.Passaic County ,651 $406,300.Warren County $309,100.Union County ,073 $419,000.Burlington County $259,300.Middlesex County ,420 $365,000.Salem County $184,000.Bergen County ,778 $493,400.Hunterdon County $475,300.Morris County ,003 $488,900.Atlantic County $264,200.Mercer County ,552 $314,300.Sussex County $332,400.Cape May County $348,000.Cumberland County $161,800.Camden County ,288 $208,600.Monmouth County $444,800.Somerset County $457,000 Average ,359 $395,142 Average $280,422 Note: Median home values are from Tax Foundation (2008). These patterns are not unique to New Jersey or the New York metropolitan area. A recent study found that between , 19 out of the largest 20 metropolitan areas in the US have seen net domestic out migration part of a continuing exodus to the suburbs and beyond (Demographia 2006). In summary, the Census Bureau s migration estimates show that New Jersey has experienced net domestic out migration since at least This trend has closely paralleled the overall migration trends in the Northeast. New Jersey is currently losing about 70,000 people a year to domestic migration, or about 8 people per 1000 New Jersey residents. The net out migration is happening in the high density areas of northern New Jersey, partially compensated by net inmigration in the less expensive and less populated parts of the state. While New Jersey s population has continued to grow due to natural increase and international in migration the rise in net domestic out migration from 2002 to 2006 reduced population growth rates below the rates experienced during the mid to late 1990s. 11

15 Part II. American Community Survey Data This section of the report examines data from the American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS is a large scale project of the US Census Bureau, surveying roughly 3% of the US population every year. Sample sizes are far larger than other major survey data sources, permitting a detailed analysis of rare events like migration. Historically, the best available data on migration has come from the census long form a 17% sample of the population added on to the census and providing much more detailed socio demographic information. The ACS is the new long form census : the best source of data on migrant demographics (Koerber 2007; Franklin and Plane 2006). Prior to 2000 when ACS went online for the entire U.S. demographers could examine the migration demographics only over longer time periods. With the ACS, we can analyze migration behavior on an annual basis. Determinants of Migration in New Jersey Why do people move away from New Jersey? This is a hard question to answer, but we can gain insight into the migration process by looking at the sociodemographic predictors of moving. For example, is it young people or retirees who are more likely to move away? Wealthy people or poor people? Working people or the unemployed? What are the features of other states that attract New Jerseyans? Are out migrants drawn to states that have better climates? Lower unemployment rates? Higher wages? Better schools? Less crime? Lower taxes? By looking at the predictors of moving, as well as the state attributes that attract New Jersey residents who move away, we can get a good sense of why people move. How is domestic migration changing the socio demographic makeup of New Jersey? To what extent does in migration compensate for out migration? To examine this, we look at the balance of in flows and out flows for different segments of the population. 12

16 Finally, how does international migration affect the balance of flows? How do inmigrants from abroad compare with in migrants from other American states (in terms of income, employment, etc.)? We use ACS data to determine the extent to which international in migrants are able to effectively make up for the net domestic out migration. Why Do New Jersey Residents Move Out of State? In this section we use a logistic regression model to see what individual characteristics predict out migration. Table 3 gives the odds ratios of migration for characteristics like age, education, employment status, and the like. An odds ratio of 1 is the baseline; higher than 1 indicates greater odds of moving, while lower than 1 indicates lesser odds of moving. For example, the first two rows of Table 3 show that men have 5% greater odds of out migration than women. The overall regression results fit well with the idea that migration is driven by job matching, and constrained by social attachments. Those with more advanced education, who often work in more specialized markets, are more likely to migrate. Someone with a Ph.D. has 3.38 times the odds of moving out of state as someone who never completed high school. Further, a person with low earnings (given their level of education, age, etc.) is more likely to move. These findings suggest that out migrants are looking for a better match between their skills and the available job openings. People are more likely to move early in life, while they are still choosing a career path and before they have many attachments and obligations. People aged 65 and older are the least likely to move, having only one fifth the odds of migrating as New Jerseyans aged This fits with the idea that people accumulate ties and connections to place as they get older. Having some retirement income makes no significant difference. Blacks are more likely to migrate out of state. In addition to the substantial (and fairly continuous) effect of age, having children also sharply lowers the odds of moving. Interestingly, people are more likely to 13

17 move out of state when they are married than when they are single. The mixture of effects here is interesting: married people are more likely to move, but those with children are less likely to move. This suggests that people move in anticipation of having children. Compared to the those currently employed, those without a job have more than 2.5 times the odds of migrating, regardless of whether they are looking for work ( unemployed ) or not ( out of labor force ). Employment is one of the strongest deterrents to out migration. Why Do People Move to New Jersey? The foregoing only looked at out migration. Of course, while some people are moving away from New Jersey, others are moving in. The determinants of inmigration are shown on the right side of Table 3. Generally, the same factors that predict out migration also predict in migration. There are several differences, however, that are worth emphasizing. First, employment status influences both types of migration, but the effect is much stronger for outmigration. In other words, the unemployed are much more likely to leave New Jersey than to move into the state. There is a similar pattern with respect to education. Those with more advanced education are more mobile in general: they have higher rates of both in migration and out migration. Nevertheless, those with more education are notably more likely to move into New Jersey than to move away. These results suggest that New Jersey is relatively less attractive for those who are not working, and relatively more attractive for those with advanced education. This suggests that cost of living is an important factor in New Jersey s migration patterns. 14

18 Table 3. Determinants of New Jersey Migration American Community Survey Micro Data. Ages 18+. Logistic Regression Models Determinants of Migration Out-Migration In-Migration Gender Odds Ratio z Odds Ratio z Female Male Labor Force Status Working Unemployed Out of the Labor Force Wage Income ($ '000) Attending School? Yes No Education Level Less than HS Graduated HS Some college Graduated College Masters or Prof. Degree PhD Marital Status Single Married Separated, Divorced, or Widowed Speaks English Well? Yes No Age Any Retirement Income? No Yes Race White Black Asian Other Ethnicity Non-Hispanic Hispanic Number of Children at Home Number of Observations 230, ,770 Pseudo R-sqr

19 Net Migration Flows The comparison above of in migration to out migration leads directly into an examination of net migration. Suppose that US states were all equally desirable and accessible places to live and work; in this situation, any out migration would tend to be balanced out by in migration. Similarly, states may be more desirable or accessible for some parts of the population than others. Between 2000 and 2006, ACS estimates that 1.05 million people (aged 18+) migrated out of New Jersey, while 0.90 million moved into the state. Stated differently, for every 100 out migrants, there is a net loss of 14.2 people. In this section, we examine which segments of the population account for net outmigration. The main source of net out migration in New Jersey is lower income individuals. The bottom 20 percent of income earners alone account for most of the net outmigration. Net migration remains negative up to the median family income. Middle and upper income individuals, on the other hand, are more likely to move to New Jersey than they are to leave the state. Among people in the 51st to 90th percentiles of family income (between $65,855 and $168,408), about 112 people move into New Jersey for every 100 who leave. At the very top individuals with family income greater than $168,408 there has been a net outmigration since About 113 very high earners leave the state for every 100 who arrive. Nevertheless, the rate ( 13.3) is only about one third of that among the bottom 10% ( 35.9). In fact, among those with very high employment earnings ($200,000+), there is a small net in flow of individuals. For every 100 highly salaried individuals who leave the state, about 110 move into the state. In contrast, among those with very high non labor earnings (such as capital gains or interest income), there is a large net out migration: for every 100 who leave, only about 45 move into the state. This emphasizes that NJ is a location of highly paid professional 16

20 occupations. It is not, however, a destination for people whose incomes are more independent of an employer. Similarly, for those with retirement income, there is a large net out flow of people ( 41.2 per 100). Table 4. New Jersey Net Migration Flows American Community Survey Micro Data. Ages 18+ In-migrants Out-migrants Gain / Loss per 100 out-migrants All Migrants (aged 18+) 901,329 1,050, Education Level Less than HS 93, , High School Grad 174, , Some college / AA 188, , BA 289, , MA / Prof. 135, , PhD 21,128 18, Employment Status Working 592, , Out of Labor Force 249, , Unemployed 59,855 90, Income Decile 1 (Bottom 10%) 112, , Deciles Decile 2 87, , Decile 3 107, , Decile 4 94, , Decile 5 72,028 94, Decile 6 84,488 83, Decile 7 78,137 70, Decile 8 77,826 73, Decile 9 86,447 63, Decile 10 (top 10%) 99, , Very high labor earnings ($200,000+) 13,798 12, High non-labor income ($50,000+) 12,661 27, Some Retirement Income 45,622 77, Age , , , , , , , , Race White 618, , Black 102, , Asian 51,999 51, Other 77,701 84, Hispanic 132, , By education, net out migration is due to persons with less than a college degree. Among those with Ph.D.s, there is a modest net inflow of individuals 17

21 (+11.7 per 100). This suggest that, rather than a brain drain problem, New Jersey enjoys a net brain gain. Among working people, the net flow is essentially zero ( 1.8 per 100). Again, net out flows are accounted for by people who are either unemployed ( 33.6 per 100) or out of the labor force ( 30.3 per 100). Clearly, these net flows help to keep New Jersey s unemployment rate low. Which Features of Other States Attract New Jerseyans? When New Jerseyans move, what kind of places do they move to? The places that out migrants move to say something important about what out migrants dislike about New Jersey. Do they move to places with better job prospects? Lower Taxes? Lower cost of living? Less crime? Better schools? Are out migrants looking for a nice place to retire, or a good place to raise a family? Table 5 lists the top 20 destination states for New Jersey out migrants. 3 Florida the income tax free retirement Mecca tops the list. Neighboring states Pennsylvania and New York round out the top three. California and North Carolina fill out the top five. These top five account for about 60% of New Jersey s out migrants. The full top 20 list accounts for 90% of out migrants. It is hard to draw conclusions from the top 20 list. Certainly, southern states are prominent not only Florida, but North Carolina, Virginia, Texas, and Georgia rank in the top 10. But what is it, specifically, that draws New Jersey outmigrants to these states? 3 For interested readers, a list of the top 20 origin states of New Jersey in migrants is provided in Appendix B. 18

22 Table 5. Top 20 Destinations for New Jersey Out Migrants, Ages 18+ State Share of out migrants Florida 18.7% Pennsylvania 16.2% New York 13.6% California 6.5% North Carolina 4.1% Virginia 3.7% Texas 3.6% Maryland 3.5% Massachusetts 2.8% Georgia 2.7% Illinois 2.5% South Carolina 2.0% Connecticut 1.9% Delaware 1.8% Ohio 1.4% Arizona 1.3% Alabama 0.9% Tennesse 0.9% Michigan 0.8% Nevada 0.8% In Table 6 below, we examine 13 state level attributes for both New Jersey and the average destination of out migrants. Some of the most striking patterns are related to the geography of living costs. New Jerseyans tend to move to states with substantially lower property values (35% lower), property taxes (41% lower), sales taxes (1 percentage point lower), and overall costs of living (17% lower). New Jersey, compared to the states to which out migrants move, is a very expensive place to live. In terms of the other quality of life variables, destinations tend to have somewhat better climates (+5 degrees winter temperature), marginally lower school quality ( 2%), and markedly higher rates of both violent crime (+47%) and property crime (+39%). In destination states the rate of child death is notably higher (+42%), as is the rate of infant mortality (+27%). In terms of the labor market, unemployment rates are negligibly higher in destination states (+0.05 percentage points); both median annual incomes 19

23 (22% lower) and usual weekly earnings (15% lower) are substantially lower in destination states. All of this emphasizes the link between the labor market and the housing market. As noted earlier, it is primarily lower income individuals who, on balance, are moving away from New Jersey. These are the people who cannot afford the high cost of living particularly the high price of housing and property tax in New Jersey. As a tradeoff, however, they move to areas with substantially higher rates of crime, slightly lower school quality, and notably higher infant and child mortality. It is also notable that for people earning $20,000 per year, New Jersey imposes a significantly lower income tax rate (1.75%, vs. 3.86% for the average out migrant state). And as noted above, it is primarily low income earners in this tax bracket that account for the net out migration from New Jersey. This suggests that most of the net out migrants pay higher state income taxes than they would if they stayed in New Jersey. Table 6. Attributes of Destination States, Compared to New Jersey State Attributes Out-migrant Destination States New Jersey Difference % Difference Cost of Living Index % Avg. Property Value $ 236,802 $ 366, ,798-35% Property tax rate % Avg Sales Tax % Income Tax rate ($20,000) 3.86% 1.75% 2.11% 120% Income Tax rate ($100,000) 4.39% 6.37% -1.98% -31% Income Tax rate (Top Rate) 4.52% 8.97% -4.45% -50% Median Incomes $ 48,405 $ 61,868-13,463-22% Weekly Earnings % Winter Temperature % Violent Crime Rate % Property Crime Rate 3,197 2, % Child Death % Infant Mortality % School Quality % Unemployment Rate % Note: Data on property values, property tax rates, and sales tax data are from the Tax Foundation (2008); Child Death, and Infant Mortality and Cost of Living Index: Kaiser Family Foundation (2008); School Quality: NCES (2008); Winter Temperature: NOAA (2002); crime rates: FBI (2008). Income tax rates are for single filers. 20

24 Income and Migration In most states, net migration is not related to the incomes of migrants. In general, the poor, the middle class, and the wealthy are all equally likely to move into (or move out of) a state. For example, in Iowa, there is no obvious relationship between income decile and net migration (see Graph 3). The correlation between net migration and income decile is basically zero ( 0.008). This is fairly typical for most US states. Graph 3. Iowa: Net Migration by income decile (no correlation) Net Migration Low income decile High income decile However, there are a handful of states where things are quite different where income is strongly related to net migration patterns. In New Jersey, there is net out migration of about 70,000 people per year (according to the Census Bureau estimates). However, all of this net out migration is due to an exodus of lowerincome individuals (see Graph 4). The correlation between income decile and net migration is This positive correlation indicates that there tends to be outmigration (negative net migration) at low income levels but in migration (zero or positive net migration) at high income levels. A positive correlation means that wealthy people have a stronger preference for a state than poor people. Alternatively, one might say that poor people have a greater dislike of the state than do rich people. In New Jersey, the positive correlation between income and 21

25 migration shows that richer people are more attracted (or attached) to the state than poorer people. Graph 4. New Jersey: Net Migration by income decile (positive correlation) Net Migration Low income decile High income decile The states that have the highest correlation between income and net migration are California (.63), New York (.51), Alaska (.43), New Jersey (.38), and Massachusetts (.34). All of these states are experiencing a large net outflow of poor people, but a much smaller or zero net outflow of high income earners. These are the states where migration patterns are most like New Jersey. On the other hand, there are states that tend to attract low income individuals, while seeing a relative outflow (or much smaller inflow) of wealthy individuals. Wisconsin is a good example, shown in Graph 5 below. At low income levels, there is strong net in migration into Wisconsin; however, at higher income levels, in migration is small or negative. Hence, one can say that Wisconsin is more attractive to low income individuals than high income earners. The states that show this pattern the strongest (have the most negative correlation between income and net migration) are Arizona (.40), Delaware (.35), North Dakota (.34), Wisconsin (.34), and Arkansas (.30). These states are experiencing a large net inflow of poor people, but a much smaller or zero net 22

26 inflow of high income earners. These are the states where migration patterns are the least like New Jersey. Graph 5. Wisconsin: Net Migration by income decile (negative correlation) Net Migration Low income decile High income decile In summary, most states (such as Iowa) are more or less equally attractive as places to live for both the wealthy and the poor. In some states, however, income is a major factor in migration. New Jersey is part of a group of states with similar patterns: California, New York, Alaska, and Massachusetts. On average, poor people leave, but rich people do not. On the opposite end are the five states that have migration patterns least similar to New Jersey: Arizona, Delaware, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Arkansas. These states primarily attract low income individuals. On average, poor people move into these states, but rich people do not. Comparing the five states that are most like New Jersey to the five states that are least like New Jersey is a way of understanding what is causing the migration patterns seen in New Jersey. As shown in Table 7, the states most like New Jersey have a much higher cost of living (+30%), much higher property values (+118%), and have seen much greater rises in housing prices since 2000 (+83%). The states most like New Jersey have the same school quality, almost identical sales taxes, and only modestly higher property taxes compared to the states 23

27 least like New Jersey. In states most like New Jersey, violent crime is higher but property crime is lower, so there seems little overall difference in crime. State income tax is an interesting factor. States most like New Jersey have more progressive tax systems: the poor pay a lower tax rate, and the rich pay a higher tax rate than they do in states least like New Jersey. Yet these are states where poor people are more likely to leave, and rich people are more likely to stay. Table 7. Comparison of States with Migration Patterns Most Like New Jersey and Least Like New Jersey "Most Like New Jersey" "Least Like New Jersey" Difference % Difference Correlation Cost of Living % Avg. Property Value 357, , , % Property Tax % Rise in Housing Prices 273% 149% % Income Tax ($20,000) 3.6% 4.6% % Income Tax ($100,000) 5.6% 5.7% % Income Tax (Top Rate) 6.3% 6.0% % Sales Tax 4.2% 4.0% 0.2% 5% School Quality % Winter Temperatures % Violent Crime % Property Crime % Note: Data on property values, property tax rates, and sales tax data are from the Tax Foundation (2008); Child Death, and Infant Mortality and Cost of Living Index: Kaiser Family Foundation (2008); School Quality: NCES (2008); Winter Temperature: NOAA (2002); crime rates: FBI (2008). Income tax rates are for single filers. When one compares migration patterns that are most and least like those of New Jersey, one finds that the key difference is cost of living and specifically the cost of housing. Taxation, either of property, sales, or income, does not seem to play a role; nor do quality of life factors including school quality, climate, or overall crime rates. In summary, this examination of how income interacts with migration patterns again suggests the overarching importance of living costs and housing prices. There are a number of states other than New Jersey that face the same pattern of out migration led by low income earners: where poor people leave and rich people do not. These states share one major thing in common: high cost of living 24

28 (especially housing). On the other side, there are a handful of states where migration patterns are the complete opposite of New Jersey: poor people move in, but rich people do not. These states also share one major thing in common: low cost of living (especially housing). 4 Domestic vs. International In Migrants Over the last seven years, there has been a net domestic out flow of 330,000 residents. However, New Jersey has also received a large net inflow of international immigrants (353,000) which more than compensates for the domestic out flow. In other words, for every New Jersey resident lost to domestic migration, the state gains about 1.1 residents from net international migration. International in migrants may arrive with significant deficiencies in language and human capital that create problems for their integration into New Jersey communities. Table 8 compares international and domestic in migrants. International immigrants have substantially less education than domestic inmigrants. For example, internationals are more than twice as likely not to have graduated from high school (23% compared to 10%), only about half as likely to have a Ph.D. (1.3% v. 2.3%). However, the proportion with a Masters or professional degree is roughly the same in both groups (14% v. 15%). Another notable though not too surprising difference is English language skills. Some 40% of internationals do not speak English, compared to 6% of domestic inmigrants. Internationals are also much less likely to be employed (45% v. 66%). This is partly because they face a higher unemployment rate (8.2% v. 6.6%), but mostly because many internationals are simply not in the labor force neither working nor looking for work (47% v. 28%). This is probably because many women in international immigrant families are homemakers rather than paid 4 For readers particularly interested in how New Jersey compares with its closest neighbors, in terms of migration by income decile, these data are graphed in Appendix A. 25

29 workers. Finally, internationals are much less likely to be white (46% v. 69%), and more likely to be Asian (31% v. 6%) or an other race (15% v. 9%). In terms of ethnicity, 28% of internationals are Hispanic, compared to 15% of domestic inmigrants. With less human capital, poorer English skills, greater risk of facing discrimination, and lower labor force participation, it should be no surprise that international in migrants earn about half the incomes as domestic in migrants ($17,500 v. $35,000). From the perspective of a state budget planner, international in migrants do not compensate very well for the net domestic out migration. They face a number of deficiencies in the labor market, meaning that they contribute much less in tax revenues. Table 8. Domestic vs. International In migrants American Community Survey Micro Data. Ages 18+ International Domestic Difference Working 45.0% 65.7% -20.8% Out of Labor Force 46.8% 27.6% 19.2% Unemployed 8.2% 6.6% 1.6% Education Levels Less than HS 23.1% 10.3% 12.8% High School Grad 25.2% 19.4% 5.8% Some college / AA 12.9% 20.9% -8.0% BA 23.5% 32.1% -8.6% MA / Professional 14.0% 15.0% -1.0% PhD 1.3% 2.3% -1.1% Mean total income $17,447 $34,923 -$17,475 Mean wage income $15,563 $30,861 -$15,298 Male 51.0% 50.5% 0.5% Female 49.0% 49.5% -0.5% Race / Ethnicity White 46.2% 68.6% -22.4% Black 8.0% 11.4% -3.4% Asian Other 30.7% 15.0% 5.8% 8.6% 25.0% 6.4% Hispanic 27.7% 14.7% 13.0% No English 39.6% 6.4% 33.2% Age Number of Children

30 Part III. New Jersey Income Tax Data Migration among New Jersey s Half Millionaires As a result of the new 8.97% New Jersey tax rate on annual income above $500,000, one focal point of recent policy debate in New Jersey concerns the migration behavior of half millionaires. Some have suggested that the new bracket makes New Jersey a less desirable residential choice for half millionaires, causing some of them to seek greener tax pastures. We use a new data source to address this question, which has previously provoked much speculation but no answer. We find that the new bracket has marginally increased the out migration of halfmillionaires presently residing in New Jersey. We also find that, under a very conservative estimation procedure, the new bracket may have reduced potential half millionaire in migration from other states. In the end, the new tax bracket has generated an average of $895 million in state tax revenues per year. We find that the opportunity costs of the tax rate increase whether estimated in terms of half millionaire households or tax base are small. How does one estimate the impact of the new tax bracket on migration patterns? Basically, we want to see whether, and by how much, the tax appears to have the changed the migration patterns of households earning more than $500,000. Net out migration among half millionaire households has certainly increased since the new tax bracket was introduced in Graph 6 shows that, from 2000 and 2003, net half millionaire out migration averaged about 450 households. From 2004 to 2007, net out migration has averaged almost 700 households. This would seem to suggest that the tax has had a substantial impact: a loss of about 350 half millionaire households per year. The average half millionaire household generates about $120,000 in income tax revenues, so this net outflow represents more than $40 million in lost income tax revenue. 27

31 Graph 6. Net Out Migration of Half Millionaire Households 900 Half-millionaire tax effective However, the total number of New Jersey half millionaires also increased sharply, from about 26,000 in 2002 to 44,000 in 2006 and increase of 70%. Overall, net out migration rates the number of net out migrants per halfmillionaire households have not changed much. As shown in Graph 7, the net out migration rate peaked in 2002 at 2.1 per 100. Graph 7. Net Out Migration per 100 Half Millionaire Households 2.5 Half-millionaire tax effective Since 2004, the out migration rate has been slightly higher than the average rate between 2000 and 2003, but the difference (about 0.13 per 100) is negligible. 28

32 This implies a net loss of about 50 half millionaire households per year, or about $6 million in tax revenues. In short, a quick look at Graph 6 suggested a notable increase in out migration by half millionaire households since the tax rate increase in However, as shown in Graph 7, the propensity of halfmillionaires to move out of New Jersey has changed very little. What has happened is a large increase in the number of New Jerseyans earning $500,000 or more, and they are leaving the state at very similar (marginally higher) rates. These estimates indicate the opportunity cost of introducing the higher tax rate for incomes over $500,000. As we estimate below, the higher tax rate raises about $895 million per year. An opportunity cost may arise if people leave the state to avoid the tax. Using the estimates above, the state missed out on additional $6 million (or $40 million if the first estimate is preferred) due to tax avoidance via out migration. In other words, the state would have raised $901 million (or $935 million if the first estimate is preferred) if there were no additional net out migration due to the tax rate change. Both of these are simple estimates, however, and below we undertake more sophisticated calculations. In particular, we account for the fact that the pool of half millionaire households in other states (and thus the number of potential inmigrants to New Jersey) has increased. Just as we emphasized the rate of outmigration (rather than absolute number of out migrants), we also need to develop an appropriate baseline (i.e., the number of half millionaire households in the rest of the United States) for in migration. 5 Estimating the State Income Tax Revenue Impact of the Half Millionaire Tax Previous research has relied on aggregate federal and state tax return data to estimate domestic migration and income growth trends in New Jersey (Hughes 5 The potential out migrants are the half millionaire households in New Jersey. The potential inmigrants are the half millionaire households in the rest of the United States. 29