Immigrant Legalization: Assessing the Labor Market Effects. Magnus Lofstrom Laura Hill, Joseph Hayes

Transcription

1 Immigrant Legalization: Assessing the Labor Market Effects Magnus Lofstrom Laura Hill, Joseph Hayes

2 Comprehensive Immigration Reform Likely to Include Legalization Approximately million unauthorized immigrants currently in the U.S. Pathway to legalization likely component of comprehensive immigration reform Potentially widespread economic effects from legalization program Same impact as 1986 IRCA amnesty? 2

3 Main Findings A legalization program is unlikely to lead to dramatic changes in the labor market for most: Unauthorized workers Native workers Some gains for unauthorized workers may be attributed to legalization, but only among highskilled workers We do not expect significant changes in tax revenues or public assistance expenditures 3

4 Overview Differences among groups Labor market effects Tax filing and public assistance Other economic effects Conclusions and recommendations 4

5 We Compared Unauthorized and Continuously Legal Immigrants New Immigrant Survey (NIS) All became legal permanent residents (LPRs) in 2003 Detailed work and migration histories Look two points in time First U.S. job First year after receiving green card Unauthorized immigrants Border crossers (sample: 945) Visa overstayers (sample: 1071) Continuously legal immigrants (sample: 2470) 5

6 We Looked at Outcomes Before and After Legalization Analyzed two labor market outcomes Occupational mobility Gains in self-reported wages Methods Compared changes among previously unauthorized workers to continuously legal workers After accounting for differences in individual factors, remaining differences attributed to legalization 6

7 Low Levels of Education Among Border Crossers Educational Attainment Border crossers Visa overstayers Continuously legal Perce ent Less than high school diploma Bachelor's degree or higher 7

8 Border Crossers Have Worked Longest in U.S. 12 Average Years Since Start of First U.S. Job 10 8 Years Border Crosser Visa overstayer Continuously legal 8

9 Overview Differences among groups Labor market effects Tax filing and public assistance Other economic effects Conclusions and recommendations 9

10 Many Newly Legalized Workers Remain in Low-Skill Jobs Many low-skilled unauthorized workers remain in same occupations Those that change occupations remain in low-skill occupations Former dishwashers work in food service Former child care workers become maids and housekeepers 10

11 Earnings Increase After Legalization Median Annual Occupational Earnings Border crosser Visa overstayer Continuously legal 1 st U.S. job $15,200 $19,700 $23,900 Post-LPR job $18,300 $23,400 $25,600 Increase $3,100 $3,700 $1,700 11

12 But Time in U.S. Is Key Factor Men Earnings gains relati ive to the continuously lega al (%) ** ** ** ** Border crossers Visa overstayers ** ** ** -2-4 Legal status Demographic characteristics and state And year of arrival And country of origin And category of admission ** Indicates statistically significant at the 1% level 12

13 Occupational Mobility Related to Education Level Upward mobility (relative to the continuously legal) is related to educational attainment rather than legal status group 9.1% for border crossers with B.A. or more 10.5% for visa overstayers with B.A. or more No evidence of gains attributable to legalization for workers with less than a B.A.

14 Why Didn t We Find Large Gains in Employment Outcomes? After IRCA, large gains observed Post-LPR interview too soon to tell? No evidence of being in the process of making changes that will lead to improved long term outcomes No more likely to be looking for work No more likely to invest in education Isolating the effects of policy change Challenge of appropriate comparison group Employer sanctions different today No longer binding for low skill Still true threat for higher skill 14

15 Overview Differences among groups Labor market effects Tax filing and public assistance Other economic effects Conclusions and recommendations 15

16 Majority of Formerly Unauthorized Paid Taxes Before Becoming LPRs Border Crossers Required to File (80%) Visa Overstayers Required to File (82%) Filed Did not file Filed Did not file 10% 6% 90% 94% 16

17 Although Many New LPR Families Live in Poverty Percentag ge Less than to to % of Federal Poverty Level 0 Border crosser Visa overstayer 17

18 Effects of Legalization on Social Programs Likely to Vary Increase in TANF unlikely in short term LPRs need to wait 5 years to be eligible Same/more stringent restrictions for newly legalized immigrants likely EITC might see effects Newly legalized may meet SSN requirement 18

19 Overview Differences among groups Labor market effects Tax filing and public assistance Other economic effects Conclusions and recommendations 19

20 In Short Term, No Impact on Natives Wages Research on the effects of immigration on natives wages finds Mostly small impacts Negative impact mainly among lower skilled Perhaps positive effects for higher skilled Our legalization findings suggest little short term impact Lower skilled do not show greater upward occupational mobility Higher skilled do move up 20

21 Economic Recovery Mostly Unaffected by Legalization Program Employment outcomes mostly unaffected Tax revenues and public assistance mostly unchanged in the short term Do not expect that a legalization program would significantly affect the economy Neither speeding up nor slowing down the economic recovery 21

22 Recent Research Predicts Large Effects from Legalization Large economic growth expected (Hinojosa-Ojeda) Rely on results from previous research based on the experiences of IRCA Gains for newly legal immigrants expected (Pastor et al) Unlike our NIS data, need to predict which workers are likely to be unauthorized Estimated legalization effect may be due to other factors 22

23 Overview Differences among groups Labor market effects Tax filing and public assistance Other economic effects Conclusions and recommendations 23

24 Conclusions Minimal short-term impact on labor market outcomes for immigrants or native-born due to legalization Low-skilled unauthorized workers do not improve occupations or wages High-skilled unauthorized workers gain Results consistent with ineffective employer sanctions of low-skill workers Little short-term change to most public assistance programs and tax revenues Legalization may lead to more investment in community and children s education 24

25 Recommendations Current employer sanctions are ineffective Reliable and accurate verification system needed Comprehensive immigration reform should promote English fluency States should prepare to advocate for their fair share of any federally funded impact grants 25

26 Immigrant Legalization: Assessing the Labor Market Effects Magnus Lofstrom Laura Hill, Joseph Hayes

27 Visa Overstayers More Skilled Than Border Crossers Border crosser Visa overstayer Continuously legal Distribution of legal status (%) Mean age Mean time since start pre-lpr job From Mexico (%) From Other Latin Am. & Carrib Education < HS diploma (%) HS diploma (%) Some college (%) BA or more (%) Excellent English (%) Number of observations 945 1,071 2,470 27