Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe. Final Country Report. Croatia

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1 On behalf of the European Commission DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe Final Country Report Croatia April 2012 Authors: Silva Mežnarić Paul Stubbs Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication.

2 Table of Contents 1. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL OVERVIEW War and Independence Political Developments Demographic Developments Economic Development, Labour Markets and Poverty and Social Exclusion MAIN EMIGRATION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION TRENDS AND PATTERNS Main emigration trends Main internal migration trends Main characteristics of emigrants in Status of refugee return to Croatia NATIONWIDE LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIGRATION Economic and Labour Market Developments Social Security Poverty and Social Exclusion LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN NET MIGRATION LOSS AREAS Net Migration Loss Regions Labour Market and Human Capital Development in Migration Loss Regions Poverty and social exclusion in net migration loss regions IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON VULNERABLE GROUPS Women Children Older people Post-conflict Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Roma POLICY RESPONSES Encouragement of circular migration Return Migration and the Integration of Returnees Return of Diaspora Reintegration of IDPs and Refugees Development of Net Migration Loss Regions Support to Vulnerable Groups Best practice examples of policy responses KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Key challenges of the social impact of emigration and internal migration Policy Suggestions References List of interviewees ANNEX: Final Country Report Croatia 2

3 ACRONYMS CITED IN TEXT ASSC Areas of Special State Concern B-H Bosnia-Herzegovina CAP Common Agricultural Policy CARDS Community Assistance for Reconstruction, Development and Stabilisation CBS Croatian Bureau of Statistics ECFIN Directorate General for Economics and Finance ERRC European Roma Rights Centre EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product ha. Hectares HBS Household Budget Survey HDZ Croatian Democratic Union HGK Croatian Chamber of Commerce HRK Croatian Kuna (April 2011 Euro 1 = 7.3 HRK) HSLS Croatian Social Liberal Party HSU Croatian Pensioners Party HZZ Croatian Employment Service ICTY International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IDS Independent Democratic Serbian Party IOM International Organisation for Migration IPA Instrument of Pre-accession Assistance IPA-RD Instrument of Pre-accession Assistance Rural Development Programme ISPA Instrument for Structural Policies for Pre-Accession JAP Joint Assessment of Employment Programme JIM Joint Memorandum on Social Inclusion JNA Yugoslav Peoples Army LFS Labour Force Survey MAFRD Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development MIC Migration Information Centre NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations MIPD Multi-annual Indicative Planning Document NMS New Member States NN Official Gazette NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics ODA Overseas Development Aid OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PPP Purchasing Power Parity ROP Regional Operational Plan RSK Republic of Serbian Krajina SAPARD Special Accession Programme for Agriculture and Rural Development SDP Social Democratic Party SFRY Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises UKF Unity Through Knowledge Fund UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNPROFOR United Nations Protection Force UNTAES United Nations Transitional Authority, Eastern Slavonia Final Country Report Croatia 3

4 1. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL OVERVIEW 1.1 War and Independence Between 1945 and 1991, the Republic of Croatia was one of the six republics of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). Throughout this period there were significant waves of emigration and internal migration in Croatia, with the period marked both by large-scale rural-urban migration and the growth of significant communities of Croatian Diaspora and guest workers abroad. In the 1980s, in the context of an economic and political crisis, demands for greater autonomy came from the richer northern republics of Croatia and Slovenia. In multi-party elections held in 1990, the newly formed Croatian Democratic Union (Hrvatska demokratska zajednica, HDZ), led by Dr. Franjo Tuđman, backed by section of the Diaspora, won a clear majority in Parliament (Sabor). Following a referendum largely boycotted by the republic s Serbian population, Croatia declared independence, together with Slovenia, on 25 June Following a ten-day war in Slovenia, the conflict in Croatia between the Yugoslav People s Army (Jugoslavenska narodna armija, JNA) and Serbian paramilitary forces, on one side, and Croatia s ill equipped police and territorial defence forces, on the other side, escalated. The JNA originally sought to occupy the whole of Croatia and negate independence but, later, its goal was to secure as much territory as possible, named the Republic of Serbian Krajina (RSK). The heaviest fighting occurred between July and December 1991, resulting in waves of large-scale forced migration. Croatia s independence was recognised by the European Union on 15 January 1992 and on 22 May 1992 Croatia became a member of the United Nations. In March 1992, a UN Peacekeeping force, UNPROFOR, was deployed in Croatia following a UN Security Council Resolution effectively recognising the status quo on the ground with the Croatian government not in control of large swathes of territory in Dalmatia (UNPROFOR Sectors North and South), Western Slavonia (Sector West), and Eastern Slavonia (Sector East) (see map, Figure 1.1). At the time of UNPROFOR s deployment, approximately 26% of Croatia s land was not under the control of the Croatian government. In the next three years, there was little change on the ground. The war in Bosnia- Herzegovina, between 1992 and 1995, led to large-scale forced migration into Croatia and many Bosnian Croats received Croatian citizenship and settled in Croatia. In early May 1995, Croatia retook Western Slavonia in three days of military and police actions, followed by large population movements out of the area and the return of many who had left or been expelled earlier. Operation Storm recaptured the whole of Dalmatia between 5 and 8 August 1995, leading to a mass outflow of the Serbian population from this area. The signing of the Erdut Agreement on 12 November 1995 averted armed conflict in Eastern Slavonia which came under the authority of a new UN mission, the UN Transitional Authority for Eastern Slavonia (UNTAES). Its initial one-year mandate was extended to two years and on 15 January 1998 the area was peacefully reintegrated into Croatia. The war between 1991 and 1995 cost some 20,000 lives and led to massive population displacement and return of different populations Political Developments President Tuđman continued a rather authoritarian politics until his death in December 1999, with HDZ continuously in power during this period. The 1990s have been termed a period of ethnic engineering (Koska, 2011) in which citizenship rights were highly dependent on national or ethnic origin, with the Croatian Diaspora in Bosnia-Herzegovina and elsewhere given seats in the Croatian Parliament. In addition, there were programmes encouraging the return or settlement of the Croatian Diaspora abroad and a pro-natality policy to reverse 1 See chapters 2 and 5 below. Final Country Report Croatia 4

5 negative demographic trends. In the January 2000 Parliamentary elections, HDZ was defeated by a centre-left coalition of six parties, led by the Social Democractic Party (SDP) of Ivica Račan, offering a different vision of Croatia in terms of deeper democracy, a Parliamentary rather than semi-presidential system, and the prospect of membership of the European Union. The Presidential elections which followed were won by Stipe Mesić who served two full terms in office. In October 2001, Croatia signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the European Union, applying for membership on 21 February 2003, with refugee return and respect for human rights seen as key tests of Croatia s ability to meet the political criteria for EU membership. Under the new leadership of Ivo Sanader, HDZ began to reform into a more pro-european party winning the November 2003 elections and forming a coalition government in early 2004 with the support of the Pensioner s Party (HSU) and the main Serbian political party, the Independent Democratic Serbian Party (IDSS). Croatia was not given the green light to begin EU accession negotiations until October 2005 when the Government was judged to be cooperating fully with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). In the Parliamentary elections held in late November 2007, HDZ was re-elected as the largest party, again governing in coalition. Following objections from Slovenia regarding disputed land and sea borders which effectively blocked the closure of a number of chapters of the acquis communautaire for many months, Sanader unexpectedly resigned as Prime Minister on 1 July 2009, handing over to Jadranka Kosor. Sanader was later expelled from HDZ and is currently facing several charges of corruption. Parliamentary elections were held in Croatia on 4 December 2011, resulting in an overwhelming victory for the SDP-led coalition, under Prime Minister Zoran Milanović. Following the completion of negotiations, Croatia signed the EU accession treaty on 9 December 2011 and, following a yes vote in a referendum held on 22 January 2012, is expected to become the 28 th member state of the European Union on 1 July Demographic Developments Independent Croatia held a full population census in 1991, 2001, and 2011, albeit with a different methodology each time, not least relating to those absent at the time of the census, making reliable comparisons difficult. Although some preliminary data from the 2011 census has been released, this is not yet official and significant gaps in knowledge remain. Croatia s recorded population declined between 1991 and 2001 by some 2.9%, from 4,784,265 in 1991 to 4,437,460 in Preliminary results of the census of 2011 are that Croatia has a population of 4,290,612. The total number of enumerated persons was 4,456, If the same methodology had been used in 2011 as in 2001, Croatia would have approximately the same population in both censi. A study on the likely trends in the Croatian population between 2004 and 2051 (Grizelj and Akrap, 2006) predicts sharp declines in the Croatian population of between 470,000 (given high fertility and medium migration) and 830,000 (low fertility and medium migration) or between 10.5% and 18.8%. Even in high migration projection scenarios, the impact of migration in the future is forecast to be rather low. As Figure 1.3 shows, the working age population is set to fall dramatically over time and the dependency ratio to increase significantly. Mainly as a result of the war and associated large-scale migrations, the proportion of Croatian citizens declaring themselves as ethnic Serbs fell from 12.16% in 1991, a total of 581,663, to 4.54% in 2001, a total of 201,631. In the context of the return of some who left, discussed below, it will be extremely interesting to see what the figures are for the Serbian minority in the 2011 census. 2 The methodology for the 2001 census was changed. If the same methodology had been used as in the 1991 census, the Croatian population would be 4,492,049 (CBS, Statistički ljetopis 2010, Table 5-1). 3 (accessed 12 January 2012). Final Country Report Croatia 5

6 For EU administrative purposes Croatia has three NUTS II regions: North West Croatia; Central and Eastern Croatia; and Adriatic Croatia. At NUTS III level there are 21 counties (županije) of regional self-government, including the City of Zagreb. Below this are municipalities (općine), including towns or cities (gradovi) and, in a recent change to the law, larger cities (veliki gradovi). There are currently 556 units of local self-government, including 429 municipalities, many of which have less than 1,000 population, and 127 towns or cities, which have 10,000 population or more. Larger cities are those with a population of 35,000 or more. Croatia has rather low levels of decentralization with the proportion of income and expenditure of local government 7.0% and 7.6% of GDP respectively in 2009, compared to 12.0% and 12.3% for the EU-27 (Jurlina Alibegović et al., 2010; ). Croatia has a population density of 75.8 inhabitants/sq. km, with a range from 9.5 inhabitants/ sq. km in Ličko-Senjska County to in Međimurska, and in the City of Zagreb. Croatia does not have a definition of rural and urban areas. Using the OECD criteria of a threshold of 150 inhabitants/sq. km, 47.6% of the population lived in rural areas in 2001 and 52.4% in urban areas (MAFRD, 2009; 10). A total of 14 out of 21 counties are classified as predominantly rural, with over 50% of their inhabitants living in rural areas. Of these, five have extremely high levels of rurality, with over 90% of the population living in rural areas (See figure 1.4 in Annex). Four of these are chosen in chapter 4 as those disadvantaged rural areas which have faced high population losses since Economic Development, Labour Markets and Poverty and Social Exclusion After a dramatic decline in GDP during war-time, Croatia began to grow in the mid- to late- 1990s and has grown more than the EU average but less than many of its neighbours, throughout the last decade (Figure 1.5). The economic and financial crisis hit in the middle of 2008, with GDP falling -5.8% in 2009 and forecast by the European Commission to fall by - 1.8% in 2010, with growth returning at levels of 1.5% and 2.1% in 2011 and 2012, respectively (EC 2011b; 7). Eurostat data show Croatia s GDP at PPP in 2008 as 16,000, about 64% of the EU-27, rising slightly to 65% in In terms of GDP per capita by county the richest county the City of Zagreb had 1.8 times the per capita GDP of the poorest county Brodsko-posavska in 2005 (see Table 1.6). The Croatian economy has been characterised since independence by rather low overall labour market participation. Using the LFS data from 2009 (CBS, 2010), compared to the EU-27 employment rate 5 of 64.6% (58.6% for women and 70.7% for men), Croatia had an employment rate of only 56.6% (51.0% for women and 62.4% for men). In terms of progress towards key EU 2020 targets, Croatia faces a difficult task to meet the targets on employment rate, and the proportion of 30 to 34 year olds having completed tertiary education. The figures on early school leavers, whilst impressive, are considered by Eurostat to be inaccurate (Table 1.6). Looking at employment based on the classifications used in the Labour Force Survey, namely Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Industry; and Services (Table 1.7), the low numbers employed in agriculture, compared to those self-employed or as family workers, and the large proportion of part-time workers in the sector, indicates the dominance of small scale and subsistence work in the sector. The decline in the proportion of the active population involved in agriculture can be traced from 1961 when it was 50.6% to 1971 (40.3%) and 1981, although the classification changed (22.3%) (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1991). Whilst the classification again changed in the meantime, by the time of the 2001 census only 7.9% of the active population was involved in agriculture, forestry and fishing (CBS web site). 4 (accessed 6 October 2011). 5 Proportion of those aged in employment as a proportion of the total population. Final Country Report Croatia 6

7 Interesting comparisons are made between Croatia and the, then, EU-25 in Croatia s Agricultural and Rural Development Plan (MAFRD, 2009; 156-7). Whilst 7.3% of the Croatian population worked in agriculture compared to the EU-25 s 5.2%, agriculture contributed 6.5% of GDP in Croatia compared to 1.6% in the EU-25. The average farm size in Croatia was only 2.4 ha compared to 13.5 ha in the EU-25. Only 19% of available land is used for agriculture compared to 42% in the EU-25. The latest headline figure on at-risk-of-poverty in Croatia, based on 2010 SILC data, using 60% of median income, including income in kind, is 20.6% 6, higher than previous Household Budget survey data had shown. Children 0-17 had an at-risk-of-poverty rate of 20.5%. Poverty risk was highest for those aged 65 and over, at 28.1%, with significant gender variation: 23.3% for men and 31.3% for women. By household type, high at-risk-of-poverty rates are faced by single person households (44.8%); single parent households with dependent children (34.6%); households with three or more children (33.1%); and single person households aged over 65 (50.2%). The Gini coefficient of inequality was 0.32 and the quintile ratio As noted below, poverty rates are higher in areas which have experienced out migration. The only breakdown of poverty figures by counties has been done using cumulative data from the HBS between 2002 and 2004, using a consumption basket poverty line. These figures (Table 1.5) should be treated with caution, therefore, because of their age, the methodology used, and the high level of margin of error particularly in the smaller counties 8. Table 1.7 contains basic data on NUTS II regions of Croatia. In the 2010 SILC data, Croatia had levels of material deprivation at 32.2%, including 57.2% of those at risk of poverty and 25.7% of those not at risk of poverty. A recent Quality of Life survey gives a sense of levels of material deprivation, based on an index consisting of six items (European Foundation, 2009). The Croatian sample showed 63% of households lacking at least one of the items, a rate more comparable to the NMS-12 than the other candidate countries which had rates of 83% (Turkey) and 85% (Macedonia) respectively. An earlier Quality of Life study undertaken in 2006 (UNDP, 2007) sought to address inequalities in median equivalent household income in PPS and deprivation using the same six indicators by county (see Table 1.6), with the Human Development Report (UNDP, 2007) based on the same data set calculating a social exclusion measure based on three dimensions: economic, labour market participation and social participation. When counties are ranked on different indicators, a clear picture emerges of the war-affected counties being the most deprived. 6 (accessed 12 January 2012). If Croatia were already a Member State, this would mean that it would have the fifth highest poverty rate in the EU. 7 The quintile ratio is the share of income of the top 20% of the population, divided by the share of income of the bottom 20%. 8 We return to them in Chapter 4 of the report. Table 1.7 contains data on NUTSII regions of Croatia. Final Country Report Croatia 7

8 2. MAIN EMIGRATION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION TRENDS AND PATTERNS In general terms we can speak of three main periods of emigration and rural-urban 9 migration in Croatia since 1991, as follows: A Periodisation of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Croatia Period Pattern Description Conflict Post-conflict Normalisation Dissolution of Yugoslavia; ethnicised conflicts; wars in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina Refugee and IDP crisis Human rights and discrimination; Reintegration of territory; Stabilisation of emigration and return flows Regular, economic emigration and return; circular migration In the first period ( ), the conflicts in Croatia and in Bosnia-Herzegovina led to an outflow of refugees from Croatia, some to neighbouring Serbia as well as to third countries, depending upon a range of factors, notably the existence of an extant Croatian population, family reunion, and/or the nature of different countries refugee and asylum regimes. Most of the refugees were ethnic Serbs, leaving in significant numbers during and after the military actions in May and August 1995, mainly to Serbia. In the second, post-conflict period ( ), the reintegration of territory and the focus on return contrasted, somewhat, with continued problems of emigration of those facing discrimination and human rights abuses. Hence, whilst ethnic Croats returned in significant numbers to territories reintegrated under Croatian government control, both from abroad and from other parts of Croatia, the exodus of ethnic Serbs tended to continue. The normalization of migration flows after coincided with the relative normalization of life in Croatia. Programmes were developed to facilitate the return of the Serbian population to war-affected territories which, whilst partly successful, tended to involve older people returning more than the active age population, still concerned by the lack of general economic prospects and the threat of discrimination. 2.1 Main emigration trends Our analysis of emigration stock here refers to the stock of population abroad described as citizens of Croatia by country of residence outside Croatia in respective censi. 11 Persons born in Croatia but residing out of Croatia, who are not Croatian citizens, are not addressed in this analysis. The main residence countries for Croatian citizens in Europe, updated for 2008, were as follows: Germany (239,961), Austria (56,695), Switzerland (37,998), and Italy (21,308) (Kupiszewski, 2009: 122). 9 After the 2001 Census terminology concerning rural-urban migration changed to urban and non-urban migration (Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS), 2011b; p. 11). 10 The surprising negative crude rate of net migration for the year 2000 (Table 2.1) is most probably the result of adjustment and consequently of recalibration of data both in Eurostat and Croatian statistics. There is also a possibility of a mistake, because this rate is highly inconsistent with Croatian official data on immigration in 2000 in Table Census 2001 includes 8 questions (36 variables) concerning population abroad and 4 questions (11 variables) related to immigrants from abroad, /popisnice/Template P1 Final Country Report Croatia 8

9 When a comparison is made between Croatian official statistics on emigration for instance to Germany - and German statistics on immigration from Croatia for the same year (2009), it is evident that Croatian statistics lead to a significant under-estimation of the emigration stock of Croatians. Although the basis of each calculation is different, the discrepancy between Croatian data (Table 2.5), showing 459 emigrants to Germany in 2009 and German data (Table 2.7) showing 2,811 (first) entrances in 2009 for emigrants from Croatia, is significant 12. As a result of independence, war and transition, the period between 1991 and 2000 was a turbulent decade regarding migration into and out of Croatia 13. Related to the war, emigration was particularly high in 1991, 1995, and 1996; immigration, largely of refugees from Bosnia- Herzegovina, was high in 1993 (Table 2.1). The period from 2001 onwards has witnessed much smaller flows, with eight successive years of very small positive net migration followed in 2009 by a slight negative net migration (Tables 2.1 and 2.2). The 2009 and 2010 figures are the result of a 40% reduction in the number of immigrants to Croatia, which is probably related to the impacts of the global economic and financial crisis, not least in terms of a significant reduction in the demand for foreign labour in the building, construction and service sectors in Croatia (see below). The impacts of the war in Croatia and in Bosnia-Herzegovina are complex, with data questionable not least since, for much of the 1990s, large parts of Croatia were not under Croatian government control. As noted above, military actions in 1995 which returned parts of Croatia to Government control resulted in a new wave of forced migration and subsequent return, a process still not completed today. Even in 1998, the peaceful reintegration of Eastern Slavonia nevertheless led to an exodus of a proportion of the Serbian population. Subsequently, patterns of emigration can be said to have normalized, although there remain features of involuntary migration insofar as many movements are a result of continued discrimination and lack of sustainable livelihood conditions for members of the Serbian minority, through a combination of lack of employment opportunities and the continuing problem of landmines. Whilst estimates vary considerably, the total emigration connected with the war in the 1990s is in the region of 510,000, about 11% of the total population. Some 270,000 ethnic Serbs emigrated to Serbia and to Bosnia- Herzegovina and some 240,000 emigrated elsewhere, mainly to Western Europe (Nejašmić, 2008: 113). At the same time, there were significant numbers of internally displaced within Croatia as well as temporary refugees from the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, some of whom obtained Croatian citizenship. The most accurate demographic data seems to be that the net migration balance for this period is negative by some 247,000 (Gelo et al., 2005). What is clear is that, barring unforeseen circumstances, the high rates of migration which characterised the 1990s are now over. Croatia has consolidated political and economic reforms, is stable, and has control over the whole of its territory. As a future EU member state, Croatia closed Chapter 2 of the Treaty concerning the Accession of the Republic of 12 According to an expert interviewed (R. Mišetić, 10 October 2011) there is a problem of validity and harmonization of various levels of data on immigration/emigration and on foreigners collected in Germany. The two principal data sources on foreigners are: the local registers of the whole population and the central foreigners register, including non-eu citizens. The validity of these sources is diminished by the fact that they sometimes overlap with the evidence of repeated cross-border arrivals/departures. In addition, Croatian citizens who reside in Germany most probably arrive from Croatia but possibly also from other countries; they may include migrants with multiple citizenships, such as ethnic Croats from Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo* and overseas countries. Regarding the figures on international migration, Croatian sources are broadly consistent but not reliable. They draw on Ministry of Interior registration of permanent residence which is mandatory for all persons upon entering the country while optional when leaving the country. The latter is a possible source of serious underestimation of emigration from Croatia to Europe and overseas. 13 Croatia has no Register of Population; data are estimated on the basis of the Register of Permanent Residence combined with data about the actual state of residence of persons on specific addresses of the Ministry of Interior and with registers based on lists of voters within Croatia and abroad (Migration of Population of the Republic of Croatia 2010, First Release, Vol. XLVIII, No , 15 June 2011, p. 1). Final Country Report Croatia 9

10 Croatia on free movement of persons 14. The provisions concerning movement of the labour force include a arrangement, meaning that for the first two years after joining the EU, the labour force from Croatia would have access to EU labour markets on the basis of a default clause of limitations and on the basis of bilateral arrangements 15. For the last years for which data are available (2009 and 2010), of the total regarded by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics as having emigrated from Croatia, almost two thirds departed to the countries of former Yugoslavia (Tables 2.5 and 2.6). Looking at a longer time period, we can conclude that there have been, and to an extent still are, two main destination clusters in terms of emigration from Croatia. One is regional, to the Yugoslav successor states, particularly Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. This migration is, often, based on national and ethnic identification and family ties, but also includes a degree of labour market migration. The second is to the European Union, including the new member states, as well as Switzerland. Although a small proportion of this may be based on national and ethnic affiliation, the largest part is labour migration either directly or indirectly. As noted above, Germany is still the EU member state with the largest stock of emigrants from Croatia and the country which will mostly be in the focus of this analysis. Data for 2010 compared to 2009, show a higher difference between rates of emigration and immigration (Table 2.2). In 2010, just over half of all emigrants, some 50.2%, were women (Table 2.4). Tables 2.5 and 2.6 show international migration out of, and into, Croatia in 2009 and 2010, in terms of country of previous residence/destination and citizenship. Some 68% of all immigration 16 and some 62% of all emigration was to the countries of former Yugoslavia, not including Slovenia, with the largest number of immigrants coming from Bosnia-Herzegovina and the largest number of emigrants leaving to Serbia. Only around 20.5% of immigration is from the EU and slightly less than 10% of emigration is to the EU, with the largest exchange in both directions being with Germany. In contrast to the period of large-scale labour emigration to Western Europe from the 1960s to the early 1980s (when migration streams became dominated by family reunification), there are now significant controls on labour migration to Western Europe from outside the EU which helps to explain the rather low numbers in the last decade. A look at numbers of international migrants broken down by county (Table 2.3) shows that in 2009, the largest number of emigrants, 13.5% of the total, was from Sisačko-moslovačka county, followed by the City of Zagreb (9.1%) and Brodsko-posavina county (8.3%). If we look at trends in the four largest net migration loss counties overall between 1991 and 2001, we see that three of these counties - Sisačko-moslovačka; Karlovačka; and Ličko-senjska - subsequently also lost population through international migration between 2005 and 2009, whereas Šibensko-kninska tended to gain population until the trend was reversed in In general terms, a trend is emerging in which those counties bordering Serbia and Bosnia- Herzegovina have both the largest negative net internal and net international migration. Overall, in terms of the EU and European cluster, the main countries of destination remained as they had been before independence: namely Germany, Austria and Switzerland (Tables 2.5 and 2.6). Slovenia s status, in particular, is not clear yet, in terms of whether flows concomitant on the break-up of Yugoslavia are still in effect or whether new patterns are emerging. 14 Freedom of Movement for Persons, Annex 1, 14509/11, p , in: Treaty concerning the Accession of the Republic of Croatia, Council of the European Union, Brussels, 21 September 2011, 14509/ National Coordinator of the Croatian Parliament for the EU negotiations, V. Pusić, telephone interview, 11 April Data on immigrants to Croatia (including returnees to Croatia) comprised also foreigners and persons of unknown residence and destination. Final Country Report Croatia 10

11 2.2 Main internal migration trends In the period between 1945 and 1991, there was significant depopulation of rural settlements and high levels of rural-urban migration in Croatia. Between 1981 and 1991, some workers employed abroad returned to Croatia, mainly to urban settlements. After 1991, rural-urban migration trends were rather weak. Indeed, the stabilisation of the rural population can be said to have begun in the decade , when rural areas lost only 5% of their inhabitants. The war between 1991 and 1995 interrupted this stabilisation, intensifying depopulation in the war-affected territories, particularly in rural areas. Between 1991 and 2001, it has been calculated that non-urban 17 areas lost 120,652 residents (Nejašmić and Štambuk, 2003; 479). Whilst this is significant, representing around 2.5% of the 1991 population, it should be remembered that the overall population of Croatia fell by over 350,000 in the same period. Altogether, both areas lost population, non-urban areas more than urban, since between they were more exposed to war. It seems that negative rates of natural change are much higher in rural areas than in the overall population; the negative net migration balance is twice as high as in the general population, and the lack of inhabitants in the age group is pronounced (Nejašmić and Štambuk, 2003; ). Within the age group in rural areas, there are fewer women than men. Hence, it has been suggested recently, rural-urban migration, though weak, has been gendered, with women... leaving sooner and in larger numbers (Nejašmić and Štambuk, 2003; 481). Thus the rural population left behind is homogenized in terms of a very low birth-rate, a stable and high death-rate, and a higher proportion of men. In non-urban settlements in the most important age group for reproduction and work, namely between 20 and 29 years of age, there are only 91.7 women for every 100 men. In the medium-term, hypothetically, this imbalance could induce a more significant emigration of younger men from rural areas and subsequently set up a vicious circle so that, in turn, more younger women leave 18. A particularly important feature of the Croatian migration pattern is the linkage between international emigration and rural-urban migration. In the period of the greatest depopulation of rural areas, between 1961 and 1971, when rural areas lost 557,500 people, it can be seen that the rural population assumed two major migration directions: the dominant one, towards large Croatian cities, and the other towards abroad (Akrap, 2004; 680), mainly to European countries. According to the 1971 census, of the 256,334 persons who resided or worked abroad, 78.6% were from rural settlements. Out of the total of 224,722 persons employed abroad, 42.7% were farmers and 35.2% industrial workers before emigration (Akrap, op.cit., p ). This bifurcation of migration also occured in the 1970s but with a lower intensity, 17 The model for the differentiation of urban, rural and semi-urban settlements in Croatia has been used by Croatian Bureau of Statistics in the 2001 Census. This model refers to definitions of urban vs. semi-urban and rural areas put forward by the UN Demographic Yearbook 2006 (CBS 2011b, p. 11). According to the Yearbook and Methodological Guidelines 2011 of CBS, urban settlements in Croatia include (1) all settlements that are seats of administrative towns regardless of the number of inhabitants (2) all settlements with population over 10,000 (3) settlements with population between 5,000 9,999 inhabitants, and with more than 25% employed (4) settlements with the population between 2,000 4,999 inhabitants with more than 25% employed in their place of residence. According to the 2001 Census, urban settlements where those with administrative and employment functions which had more than 2,000 inhabitants (ibid 2011b; 13-14). All other settlements that do not meet the abovementioned criteria are considered rural and semi-urban settlements. This group includes villages and other, less and more urbanised settlements in rural areas, as well as suburban settlements (ibid 2011b, p. 13). Consequently, Census 2001 identified 143 urban settlements in Croatia with 53.6% of the total Croatian population (ibid 2011b, p. 19). 18 It can be doubted that the gender imbalance would cause such a cycle. If men stayed because of good work prospects, the imbalance would cause a reverse movement in the future. However, recent data on internal migration do not support such speculation: in 2010 the largest number of migrated population within the Republic of Croatia was aged (47,7%), while the share of women in the total number of migrated population was 55.2% and has been growing since the mid-1990s (Migration of Population of Republic of Croatia, 2010, First Release, No 7.1.2, Vol. XLVIII, June 2011; 1, available at 02_01_2011.htm (accessed 14 May 2012)). Final Country Report Croatia 11

12 and the economic crisis in 1973 stopped temporarily the emigration of the work force whilst inducing family reunion and a rise in marriages. In the 1960s, the majority of emigrants who left Croatia were young single males. Comparative analysis of the natural permanent population trend (the sum of inhabitants in Croatia and registered persons temporarily working and living abroad with their family members) and the population in Croatia at the level of rural and urban settlements based on census and other data from showed that the emigration between quickened the pace of deagrarianisation and deruralisation considerably more than could have been done by the domestic economy (Akrap, 2004; 698). As a consequence, the depopulation in rural areas in Croatia from the 1990s onwards can be said to have been induced by the depopulation by emigration in the 1960s and 1970s (Wertheimer-Baletić, 2004; Nejašmić and Štambuk, 2003). Dispersed small settlements with a weak supportive logistics network were not attractive enough to retain the rural population. There was no developed system of micro-regional or regional centres which would neutralize the strong push factors for the rural population to leave their settlements (Nejašmić and Štambuk, 2003; ). The dispersivity of small non-urban settlements is evident from the 2001 census data: out of a total of 6,759 settlements, only 143 were classified as urban. The great majority among the rest of the 6,616 non-urban settlements were villages and semi-urban settlements (Nejašmić and Štambuk, 2003; 473). Overall, emigration from, and depopulation of, non-urban settlements led to a significant decrease in the proportion of those living in non-urban settlements in the total population. It was 56.3% in 1971, falling to 44% in 2001, with expectations of a further fall to around 40% in the 2011 census. The nature of trends in net migration loss regions are discussed at length below. Between 1991 and 2001, 18 out of 21 counties lost population and only three, Zagrebačka, Brodskoposavska and Splitsko-dalmatinska displayed a natural growth of population (Wertheimer- Baletić, 2004: 640). Interestingly, whilst Zagrebačka county gained the most, some 10%, the city of Zagreb itself grew only 0.3% which, compared to earlier censi, represented a notable slowing down of population growth (Antić, 2001: 308). This was surprising, because warinduced internal migration between 1991 and 1995 directed the majority of refugees and IDPs to Zagreb. However, it has been argued that this flow was not accompanied with permanent settlement (Antić, 2001; 308). 2.3 Main characteristics of emigrants in 2009 As noted above, Croatia as part of SFRY experienced a long period of regular emigration for a variety of economic reasons between 1961 and This wave of emigration included temporary migration and guest workers permanent labour migration based on subjective economic utility as well as family reunification. In over 25 years of migration flows before 1990, Croatia had sent hundreds of thousands of guest workers to Western Europe, at its height supplying 30% of former Yugoslavia s foreign currency reserves. Compared to the resident population in Croatia, emigrants who are citizens of Croatia in the EU member states are older, better educated, have the same share of women as the resident population and approximately the same proportion, about one third, is single. These are characteristics for the emigration flow to EU countries as displayed by Croatian emigration statistics. Receiving country data from Germany are analysed in more detail, as most Croatians in the EU live there. It can be assumed that the structural characteristics for most other receiving countries are similar. Table 2.8 shows the Croatian population in Germany between 2002 and 2009, showing a slight decline in this period and a slight change in gender distribution so that women are now a slight majority (51.4%). Table 2.9 shows the 2009 Croatian population in Germany in terms of its age structure. Almost a quarter of the entire population is aged between 55 and 65, with a dramatic fall to only 11% aged 65 to 75. Whereas there are more women in the group, men predominate in the group. This may be a product of the different gender basis of initial emigration of different cohorts. The figures may also Final Country Report Croatia 12

13 indicate a trend of a significant number of Croats in Germany returning to Croatia upon retirement, in which case the most significant wave of returns is imminent. For example, female shares are around 50% in other destination countries, except for Slovenia where two thirds of Croatian citizens are male. 19 As the Slovene data indicate, Croatians living in neighbouring countries are likely to have different characteristics. However, there is no specific data on the main flows to Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. According to our assessment, emigrants who go there are older and less well educated. As noted above, women represent 51% of Croatian emigrants in Germany, a rate which has been growing steadily (Table 2.8). The stock of Croatian emigrants in Germany is relatively old; 38% are over 55 years of age, with women being slightly younger than men. There is also a significant proportion of the generation of young, active emigrants (25-45 years). They represent 37% of the total population of Croatian citizens in Germany. The average age for men is 45.3 and for women 45.1 (Table 2.9). The length of stay in Germany is also quite long: on average, in 2009, it was 28.2 years for men and 27.3 years for women. Whilst the majority are married (51%), more women are married (56%) than men (45.7%). Over one fifth of Croatian citizens in Germany are not emigrants but are born in Germany (22%) (Tables 2.12 and 2.13). The legal status through residence in Germany for the vast majority of Croatian citizens is regulated, for the majority before 1990, according to the old law on the status of migrants, and for others afterwards, by 2004 regulations (Table 2.14). According to the 2004 regulations, 74% of Croatian emigrants have permission to live permanently in Germany. Traditionally, Croatian emigrants have settled mostly in four federal states: Baden- Wuerttemberg (33%), Bavaria (23%), Hessen (13%) and North Rhine-Westphalia (16%) (Table 2.15). Recent immigrants (including first entrants) from Croatia to Germany show a quite different picture (Tables 2.10 and 2.13). Out of 4,985 persons who came to Germany in 2009, the majority were men (66%) and they were young (69% between years of age and 42% between 25 and 35 years old). The average age is 34.4 years old, being higher for men (35.1) compared to women (32.5) (Table 2.13). Those who emigrated from Germany to Croatia in 2009 have rather different demographic features 20. These emigrants (returnees) 21 to Croatia (Tables 2.11 and 2.12) are considerably older (47.7 years on average, upon returning home), with women significantly older than men (52.6 compared to 45.9). Within the entire stock of returnees in 2009, 38% of persons were over 55 years old upon returning. Younger persons (25-45) represent also a significant portion of returnees (36.7%). This bifurcation is possibly due to the circulation of younger migrants and/or to the economic crisis in 2007/8. In any case, returnees had rather a long period of permanent stay in Germany (Table 2.12) before returning (19.7 years on average). 2.4 Status of refugee return to Croatia Croatian authorities registered over 132,872 returnees in total belonging to the Serb minority. This figure corresponds to about half of those Croatian citizens of Serbian nationality who fled the country between 1991 and It is estimated that 54% of returnees have remained in Croatia. The rest most probably migrated further to Serbia and Bosnia and 19 Eurostat (2011): Population by sex, age and citizenship (migr_pop1ctz). in: Statistics Database. 20 These figures most probably include persons who did not immigrate to Germany from Croatia, such as former Yugoslavia nationals with Croatian passports. 21 Data on immigrants to Croatia (including returnees to Croatia) do not include only citizens of Croatia. They comprised also foreigners and persons of unknown residence and destination. Also, figures concerning those who emigrated from Germany to Croatia include emigrants which are not former immigrants from Croatia. (Migration of Population of HR in 2011, First Release, Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Vol. XLVIII, No June 2011 ( Final Country Report Croatia 13

14 Herzegovina (Tables 2.5. and 2.6). Housing care programmes for returnees are being implemented but considerable problems remain, given the low capacity for handling applications for housing reconstructions (in March 2011, 2,500 applicants were still waiting for their accommodation requirements to be met 22 ), for validation of pension rights, and for creating the economic and social conditions needed for the sustainable return of Serbian refugees NATIONWIDE LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIGRATION 3.1. Economic and Labour Market Developments It is difficult to isolate the impacts of emigration from other factors in terms of labour market impacts and social development trends. Nevertheless, the scale of two major waves of emigration, the first of guest workers mainly to Germany and other parts of Europe from the 1960s onwards, and the second the wave of forced migration out of Croatia as a result of the war in the early 1990s, as well as the uneven nature of return subsequently, have had significant effects. In terms of the profile of Croatians in Germany at the end of 2009, 80.5% were between 15 and 65, constituting a significant addition to the Croatian labour force if they were in Croatia (Table 2.7). The extent of labour emigration combined with very low rates of immigration and a rather inflexible labour market in terms of internal movement for work clearly contributes to problems in the establishment of a dynamic labour market in Croatia. Emigration between the 1960s and 1980s was linked to relieving the pressure on the labour market and limiting levels of unemployment. Subsequently, in the 1990s, such pressure was countered in other ways, with significant long-term impacts, notably the granting of early retirement to large numbers of workers in the 1990s. Whilst high rates of unemployment, particularly long-term, persisted in the new millennium and worsened during the economic and financial crisis 24, this has had no appreciable impact on rates of emigration in general although, as we note below, there have been impacts in particular sectors of the economy. There are a number of labour market and skills shortages in specific economic sectors in Croatia which appear to have a link to emigration insofar as it is known that there are significant numbers of Croatians working in those same sectors abroad. In shipbuilding, as a result of war, Croatia lost orders and lost the place it had as third in the world in terms of weight of boats produced which it held in Whilst those employed in the shipbuilding industry was around 21,900 in 1990 (Barisic, 2008; 24), this dropped to a low of 8,698 in 1997 (Kersan-Škabić, 2002). The number of employees has risen steadily since, from 13,952 in 2000 to 16,445 in 2007 (HGK, 2008), with the majority working in the five major shipyards which are currently in the process of restructuring and privatisation. The decline in employment in the early 1990s meant that a significant number of skilled workers found work abroad, where wages were higher, particularly in neighbouring Italy. A core of the skilled labour force was lost to emigration during the war with as many as 2,600 highly skilled shipbuilding workers in Italy (Skupnjak-Kapić et al., 2005; 12), a significant proportion of 22 EC, 2011a; 13) 23 Some of these issues are discussed further in section 5 below. 24 Croatia has an employment rate of 57.0% in 2011, Eurostat, (accessed 14 May 2012) Final Country Report Croatia 14

15 whom are recruited through Croatian sub-contracting companies or work illegally. The drain of Croatian shipyard workers can be seen from the fact that, in the three largest shipyards surveyed, some 16,000 workers left between 1990 and The annual employment quota for new employment of foreigners in shipbuilding in 2004 was 409, and in 2009 it was 1,148, reduced to 243 in In the construction industry the highest number of new quota work permits, 2,518, were issued for foreign workers coming to work in Croatia in 2009, although this was reduced as a result of the crisis to 300 in Foreign workers in this sector are mainly bricklayers and carpenters. Employment in construction fell dramatically during the war. In 1990 some 118,700 persons were employed in construction, around 7.6% of the employed in Croatia. By 1995, this had fallen to some 59,000 or 4.9% of the workforce. By 2000, the number had picked up to 65,200 or 6.2% (Đukan and Đukan, 2002). HGK figures suggest that, by 2008, employment figures had almost returned to pre-war levels at 108,260, falling in the context of the economic crisis to 97,503 in 2009 (HGK, 2010; 2). Although data is scarce, the studies noted suggest that a significant number of Croatian construction workers work abroad, on temporary or more permanent contracts, in Western Europe, in neighbouring countries in South East Europe, and elsewhere. Crucially, according to 2008 data in an unpublished study, 71% of year olds in Croatia who are registered as construction workers are inactive, with significant numbers retiring every year, and too few schools training their replacements (Crnković-Pozaić and Meštrović, 2011). There are suggestions that tourism is a sector marked by some seasonal labour emigration and labour shortages, particularly of cooks and waiters (Pavic, 2010). In any case, tourism is the third largest sector for the issuing of work permit quotas: 160 ordinary permits and 10 seasonal permits in 2009 and 138 ordinary plus 20 seasonal permits in 2010 (Narodne Novine (official gazette), ). These three industries are those were there are suggestions that, in fact, the quota of work permits may have been too low and that some employees used business permits instead (Pavic, 2010). In addition, many of those foreigners found to be working in irregular work, each year between about 1,600 and 2,800, worked in construction, tourism and seasonal agriculture. In any case, the rigidity, lack of mobility, skills mismatch, and segmentation of the domestic labour market is combined with a rather low population of foreign migrant workers, some 10,669 in 2009, 91% of whom are male, in a total of 32,160 regular migrants (Pavic, 2010; 53-6). In this sense, in the context of relatively high unemployment, it can be argued that emigrations may have eased general labour market pressures. In terms of the emigration of highly skilled professionals and scientists, whilst there are clear indications of a significant number of those with PhDs and masters degrees leaving Croatia during the 1990s, it is harder to show the impact in terms of labour market shortages. The estimation is that by 2004 there were around one thousand highly qualified persons in reputable world universities and research corporations (Pifak-Mrzljak et al., 2004, table 3.1). In the period between 1990 and 2000, it is estimated that 849 scientists left Croatia (ibid, table 3.2), mainly from the natural and technical sciences. The reasons for the exodus of young scientists appear to be multiple and complex, although many relate to dissatisfaction with the status of science in Croatia and lack of prospects within a hierarchical system (Golub, 2003). The issue of emigration of qualified doctors from Croatia has been raised on a number of occasions in political debate, although research tends to focus on intention to leave rather than on those who actually leave (cf Kolčić et al., 2005). Some research (Džakula et al., 2006) notes high levels of unemployment in the 1990s but reported shortages in In October 2005, there were 1,107 registered unemployed medical personnel in Croatia, including 437 medical doctors, but most of these were in the process of internship after 25 (accessed 14 May 2012) Final Country Report Croatia 15

16 graduation and therefore did not have a medical licence. There is some level of migration abroad but also migration to other professions by skilled medical personnel. One text (Adamović and Meznarić, 2003) states that, in the 1990s, some 139 medical scientists left the country. In terms of remittances, Inward Remittance flows including workers remittances, employees compensation and migrants transfers was estimated at $1.513 billion in 2010 (approximately billion using average yearly exchange rates). The figure for 2009 was $1.476 billion ( billion) or 2.34% of GDP (World Bank, 2011). Trends over time as a proportion of GDP (Figure 3.3), suggest that, at their peak, remittances were 3.35% of GDP in The fall in absolute terms between 2008 and 2009, whilst not very significant, probably relates to the global economic and financial crisis although, as figure 3.3 shows, there was actually a slight rise in remittances as a percentage of GDP since overall GDP fell. Whilst relatively low by regional standards as a proportion of GDP, Croatia s remittances represent about three times the value of net Overseas Development Aid (ODA), and around 30% of net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. Whilst there is widespread agreement that official figures significantly underestimate the total flow of remittances in the region of Eastern Europe (cf. World Bank 2006), there are no estimates of by how much in the Croatian case. The amounts are probably significant as the majority of remittances come from Germany which is not so distant and with good travel connections to Croatia (Schiopu and Siegfried, 2006: 29). The same report shows that remittances to Croatia in 2004 tended to be higher from countries with a higher GDP, and that there was a clear negative relationship between the level of remittances per migrant and the proportion of low skilled migrants from Croatia in each country (ibid; 17). The role of remittances in development in Croatia has not been studied systematically. Nevertheless, in the context of general development planning in Croatia, and particularly in the context of rural and island development planning, there are examples of remittances supporting small-scale development. This has also occurred where large-scale emigration from specific localities has been to one or two places, such that the Diaspora is encouraged, sometimes through mediating authorities such as the Catholic Church, to provide income for local projects. The small islands of Unije (cf. Magaš et al., 2006; Starc, 2004)) and, even more particularly, Susak, where a whole generation of active young people left for the United States in the 1950s, offer interesting examples of this (Sokolić, 1994). In both cases, renovations to church and community infrastructure, as well as roads facilitating tourism, have been developed with funding coming, in part at least, from the Diaspora. 3.2 Social Security Croatia has a number of bilateral agreements on social security in place which enable pensions to be paid on the basis of aggregate contribution years. Other principles include: equal treatment, determination of applicable legislation, time based proportionality, exportability of benefits with no restrictions, equivalence of territories to avoid overlap, and maintenance of rights acquired (Council of Europe, 2009). Some agreements were made by SFRY but have been taken over by Croatia pending the signing of new agreements. In addition, Croatia has signed bilateral agreements with five successor states of the SFRY. In total, as at April 2011, there are 24 bilateral country agreements, plus an agreement with the Canadian province of Quebec, with a number of other agreements being negotiated 26. Once completed, these will cover the main countries of Croatian emigration. In addition, upon EU accession, the EU rules for social security co-ordination among all member states will also apply to Croatia. The accession treaty of Croatia with the EU ensures the exportability of 26 The countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Macedonia, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Quebec province, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. The agreement with Turkey is signed and ratified but not yet in force. Negotiations are also being undertaken with New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, and Romania. Final Country Report Croatia 16

17 social security benefits on the basis of reciprocity between Croatia and the nationals of all EU member states. The agreements with European countries apply to almost all aspects of social security: health insurance and medical care; occupational injuries; old age, disability and survivors pensions; and unemployment benefits. Some also cover death grants and family benefits. Agreements with overseas countries apply only to pension schemes. Croatia also has fourteen bilateral agreements covering family benefits 27. These vary in terms of whether or not they totalise relevant periods completed in different countries. Under these agreements, Croatia pays pensions to those who worked in Croatia but who now live abroad and other countries pay those who worked in those countries and have now returned to Croatia. In terms of the payment of Croatian pensions abroad, in 2010, 130,627 pensioners were included under these agreements, with an average monthly pension of only HRK (approximately 97). This is much less than the general average pension of 2,160 HRK (about 291) in January 2011, which itself represented only 40.45% of the average net wage. The pensions are low as they apply to workers with an average work record in Croatia of only 12 to 13 years, and to mainly lower skilled workers (Rismondo, 2011). There are no statistics available regarding the total amounts these workers receive in pensions from other countries. The totals and averages of different pensions paid by Croatia to those living abroad are shown in Table 3.4 below. As can be seen, there is a significant difference between pensions paid to those in successor states to SFRY compared to other countries. The breakdown of the numbers in these other countries is shown in Table 3.5, with the largest numbers of pensions being paid to those resident in Germany, followed by Australia (Rismondo, 2011). Receiving a Croatian pension entitles the returning migrant to health insurance in Croatia. It may be that those who spent most of their working life abroad but who have returned to Croatia, who cannot prove their entitlement to a Croatian pension, face problems in terms of health insurance. However, there are no figures on the extent of the problem 28. Although non-insured persons are entitled to free emergency medical treatment, other health fees for non-insured persons can be high and prohibitive. In addition, sources in the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute suggested that there are problems in accumulating records on who receives pensions from abroad. In some cases, those lacking a Croatian pension may seek social assistance although, in reality, their income is boosted by a pension from abroad. The numbers of those receiving pensions from abroad in Croatia in 2009 is shown in Table 3.6, with the largest numbers being from Bosnia-Herzegovina and from Germany 29. The figures regarding Germany differ quite significantly from those provided by the German Pension Insurance fund. In 2009, a total of 105,299 payments of pensions were made to those of Croatian nationality, a rise of some 5,700 from 2008, and almost 50,000 more than in ,591 of these payments were made to addresses in Croatia. German statistics include the amounts only for the years In 2002, average payment was , although all disability pensions and old age pensions for men were, on average, above this amount. The large numbers of those in receipt of pensions from Bosnia-Herzegovina is, without doubt, a product of war-time and post-war migration of Bosnian Croats with work records primarily or exclusively in Bosnia-Herzegovina. In contrast, those in receipt of pensions from Germany are, in large part, Croatian guest-workers who have returned to retire in Croatia. Hence, it is likely that the average pension paid from Germany will be significantly higher than the average Croatian pension, and, in contrast, that the average pension from Bosnia-Herzegovina will be considerably lower. 27 These are with: Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. 28 Interview with senior official of the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute, April Administrative data compiled by the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute. 30 Compliled from the Statistics of the German Pension Insurance Fund Table 903. Final Country Report Croatia 17

18 In reality, despite formal agreements, the regulation of social security contributions and entitlements between Croatia and both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia are complex, in the context of the wars. Croatian Serbs who worked between 1991 and 1995 in that part of Croatia not under Croatian Government control (so-called Republic of Serbian Krajina or RSK) and who fled to either Serbia or Bosnia-Herzegovina, originally were given only a short period of time to validate their work records under a controversial 1997 Convalidation Law in Croatia. This led to significant difficulties in realising pension rights in terms of those years. There is also an issue regarding those already receiving a Croatian pension who lived in the RSK in that period and who received, on the whole, only very small amounts from the parastate pension fund set up in that area. Also, those who had paid into the farmer s pension fund from its inception in 1980 until 1991, but who then stopped paying in 1991 because they lived in RSK, were originally not entitled to any benefits. This decision has now been amended but the back payments are determined by when a claim was made, with those claiming before November 1999 receiving approximately three times the amount received by those who claimed afterwards. As part of agreements relating to minority rights, the period for claiming pensions from 1991 to 1995 was extended in The 2009 EU Progress report on Croatia notes that 17,586 claims were made following the change, and that by November 2008 some 9,610 had been processed with a 52% acceptance rate 31. The 2010 Progress Report notes the possibility of appeals but also that the rejection rate remained high, at 44% 32. The latest, 2010 Croatia Progress Report notes good progress in terms of meeting the demands of the acquis regarding the co-ordination of social security systems but that additional efforts are needed in terms of building administrative capacity in this field. It also notes that Croatia is participating as an observer in a working group on new EU regulations on electronic exchange of data in this area Poverty and Social Exclusion The evidence on the linkages between emigration and poverty and social exclusion in Croatia is far from clear. The Household Budget Survey contains a category money received (without the promise of returning it) from a long-term absent member of the household, family, or other person. A category on in-kind gifts combines gifts from within the country and from abroad. It is the case that single parent households are, on the whole, likely to face a greater risk of poverty than the general population, a rate of 34% in 2010 compared with a general rate of 20.6%, with risk measured in terms of being below 60% of median income, based on the SLC methodology. However, there is no evidence of a linkage between this status and having a partner abroad (CBS, 2011). The most recent World Bank poverty survey (World Bank, 2007) using 2004 HBS data and constructing a basic needs consumption basket poverty line, found a headline poverty rate of 11.1%, but a significantly higher risk for one or two person households, for large households (6 or more members) and for households aged 65 or over. Again, no data is available for poverty risk linked to having someone abroad. It is extremely hard to posit any clear linkage between periods of significant emigration and trends in inequality in Croatia. The picture is complicated by the change from a socialist to a market based economy. An author noted that inequality in 1998 was lower than had been assumed (Nestić, 1998) but that there was a mild increase in inequality between 1998 and 2002 (Nestić, 2005), with the Gini coefficient rising from to He suggests that the Gini coefficient in 1988 was 0.276, so that the out-migration during the war coincided with an increase in inequality but this is more likely to be a result of transition effects. Whilst other income, including remittances, was relatively constant between 1988 and 2000 (between 6.7% and 8.7% of total income) it fell considerably in 2002 to 3.7% but the reasons for this are far from clear and may be a statistical aberration. This broad pattern is verified by Leitner The Gini coeffocient measures income inequality and the range is from 0 (total equality) to 1 (total inequality). Final Country Report Croatia 18

19 and Holzner s study (2009), suggesting Croatia had a rather low and stable level of inequality throughout transition, calculating the Gini coefficent at between and 0.300, although the fact that statistics do not include income from property sales, a source of considerable inequality, as income, from 2003 onwards, distorts the figures somewhat. A longer-term focus on wage inequality, covering 1970 to 2006, a period chosen because of a remarkably consistent data set, also does not address migration issues even though it does discuss different political and economic turbulences (Bičanić and Vukoja, 2009). The rather counter-intuitive finding that wage dispersion, i.e. relative wages for different levels of education attainment, actually reduced over time, with particularly sharp reductions during periods of macro-economic instability during the early 1970s and early 1980s, is an important finding. The authors do not discuss the fact that these were also periods of significant labour emigration in Croatia, although they do make the point that there was internal labour mobility within what was then SFRY. Wage inequality, whilst largely cyclical, tended to increase over time with a steady increase since The fact that the shocks of war, large-scale forced migration and transition in the early 1990s had little effect on either measure of wage inequality tends to support a hypothesis regarding the inflexibility of the Croatian labour market. A recent study, addressing the role of remittances on households in Croatia (Poprzenovic, 2007), suggests that most remittances were used for savings and investments, although no reasons are posited for why these may have been preferred to consumption expenditures. Her examination of household budget data, albeit with the problems noted above, suggests that single households of working age without children and single persons over 65 were the major recipients of remittances. Remittances have a poverty alleviation effect, even though the rich tend to receive more remittances in absolute terms, with the richest quintile receiving three times as much in remittances as the poorest quintile (Poprzenovic, 2007; 41). Whilst the poorest decile received only 4% of all remittances in 2002, the second poorest decile received 10%, more than middle-income groups. This decile received around 6% of all their income from remittances. The study shows that whilst remittances have a small poverty alleviation effect, they have a significant effect on the depth and severity of poverty, particularly in older single households. Their impact on inequality is small, reducing overall inequality in general, but tending to widen the gap between the richest and the poorest. 4. LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN NET MIGRATION LOSS AREAS 4.1. Net Migration Loss Regions In terms of the Croatian counties, five out of 21 Croatian counties lost more than 20% of their population between the 1991 and 2001 censi: Ličko-senjska (a loss of 37%); Sisačkomoslovačka (a loss of 26.2%); Šibensko-kninska (a loss of 26%); Zadarska (a loss of 24.3%); and Karlovačko (a loss of 23.2%). Four of these, the exception being Zadarska, are, along with Virovitičko-podravsko, the most rural counties, with over 90% of the population living in rural settlements. In total, out of 21 counties, 15 suffered a net population loss, including 10 losing more than the country as a whole (which lost 7.2% of its population). All were war affected during the 1991 to 1995 war. The previous period, 1971 to 1991, was a period of net population growth in Croatia, although four of the five net loss counties noted above already lost population in this period, most notably Ličko-senjska which lost 20%, making almost a 50% loss from 1971 to The preliminary results of the 2011 census are not fully comparable with population results from the 1991 and 2001 censi. Nevertheless, it is significant that, as well as beginning to fare better in terms of economic results, Zadarska county actually appears to have grown in the period from 2001 to 2011, with total population now 170,398. For this reason, in terms of the most affected net population loss counties, the Final Country Report Croatia 19

20 developments will concentrate on four counties: Ličko-Senjsa; Sisačko-Moslovačka, Šibensko-kninska, and Karlovačko. In total, by population, they constitute more than 10% of the entire Croatian population. In addition, the Croatian islands represent a specific case of depopulation which has a long history only partially compensated for by the growth of mass tourism. Croatia has 48 populated islands. There was some recovery between 1981 and 1991 in island population (see Table 4.1), largely due to the expansion of tourism but also linked to an economic crisis which impacted most on urban areas. The total fall in population, whilst significant over a longer period of time, reflected in the fact that the peak of the island population was in 1910 when it reached some 173,000, has been less dramatic than the fall in the war-affected counties. Perhaps more pertinent is the fact that, according to the 2001 census, 27% of the island population was 60 years old or over, compared to 22% of the general population. Using the 2001 census data, in our four net migration loss counties, the proportion of those 60+ is also higher than the national average, and the ageing index (those 60+ divided by those 19 or under) is also the highest in Croatia (Table 4.2). Hence, the depopulated areas can be seen to also face a more problematic demographic structure, in terms of ageing populations, than the country as a whole. In general terms, the four net migration loss regions represent less favoured rural regions (MAFRD, 2009), with trends of out-migration in terms of a loss of the predominantly younger, better educated, population abroad, to urban areas, or to centres of tourism within the county itself. The specifics of each county can be gleaned from very recently completed Regional County Social Plans (mostly from 2011), as well as their Regional Operational Plans (ROPs) drawn up in the mid 2000s or, in one case, from a more recent County Development Strategy (CDS) from Karlovačka county had 141,787 inhabitants at the time of the 2001 census, with 43.2% living in the city of Karlovac itself. The southern parts of the county and, in particular, the parts bordering Bosnia and Herzegovina, are very sparsely populated. The fall in population of 23% between 1991 and 2001 is mainly accounted for by the war. There has also been some rural to urban migration with some smaller rural municipalities having had a 50% reduction in population. The ethnic mix has changed with only 11% of the 2001 population declaring themselves as of Serbian origin, compared to 22.7% at the 1991 census. However, up until August 2010, some 35,603 refugees and IDPs returned to the county, of which were Serb returnees, around 9% of the county s total population. These are mainly older people, however (Karlovačka 2011). The period between 1991 and 2001 saw a 36% reduction in the population aged 0-14, and a 26% reduction in those aged At 20%, the proportion of those aged 65 and over was the second highest in Croatia (Karlovačka, 2011). Manufacturing, civil engineering and trade accounts for 90% of revenue in the county, but there has been a significant decline in manufacturing as part of a general process of deindustrialisation (Karlovačka, 2005). In terms of agriculture, 19,171 households or 60,705 people (43% of the total population in the county) own and manage agricultural land. The majority of agriculture is based in small-holdings with the average parcel of land only ha. In addition many households engaged in agriculture are managed by elderly people who do not possess sufficient knowledge, interest or the financial ability required for modern, commercially profitable, agriculture (ibid; 30). In terms of the labour market, the county is marked by high and long-term unemployment, registered unemployment being 24.8% in 2010 (Table 4.4). In terms of agriculture, whilst only 871 persons were employed in agriculture there were an additional 7,742 individual farmers. There are few qualified young people, and almost no vocational schools in the county for the most needed skills in terms of the labour market, namely in engineering and metalwork, transportation and construction (Crnković and Meštrović, 2011). Karlovačka county also lacks higher education programmes so that qualified young people are likely to either remain unemployed, seek other work, or migrate outside the county. The education system faces Final Country Report Croatia 20

21 declining numbers in elementary schools in rural areas. There are severe problems in terms of access to pre-school education for those in remote rural and war-affected areas. Schools are said to be ill-equipped and ageing, although the issue of transport of children to secondary schools from remote areas is partly solved by accommodating children in homes for secondary school children in the cities and towns. The health care system is noted in the ROP as in debt and understaffed with 1 doctor per 450 population compared to one per 390 as the national average. Lička-senjska county is both the largest in size in Croatia (9.5% of territory) and the least populated with only 1.2% of Croatia s population, 53,677 at the 2001 census with an average density of only 10 persons per sq. km. The county has the highest proportion of those over 65 in the whole of Croatia (22.7%), of which 56% live alone. Whilst having a coastal area and one island (Pag), most of the county, some 80%, is hilly, with three National parks including the Plitvice Lakes. Difficult conditions have led to depopulation since the peak of the county s population at the end of the nineteenth century when it was around 187,000. As a result of the war from , the population fell by 31,500 between the census of 1991 and that of The population density in the war-affected areas is as low as 4.9 per sq. km (Ličkasenjska, 2011). The Serbian population was 11.1% in 2001, whereas in 1991 it was 37%. The bulk of return, some 14,871 of which 10,576 were Serbs, took place between 1998 and 2003 (Lička-senjska, 2011). Trade is by far the largest contributor to income, followed by manufacturing. There is high unemployment, with registered unemployment reaching 18.9% in 2010 (Table 4.4). There is little replacement of older and retiring workers by younger workers in catering and tourism and in engineering, shipbuilding and metalwork. In addition, the lack of higher educational programmes in the county means that young people are at high risk of leaving the county (Crnković-Pozaić and Meštrović, 2011). In addition, 7.6% of those employed are farmers, despite the fact that conditions for agriculture are difficult, with low temperatures in winter in the continental part of the county and poor water supply on the coast. In 1991, agriculture was the sole source of income for 3,860 households but much of this was destroyed in the war. The major problems for agriculture lie in the large population decline, the old age of the rural population, the unclear nature of property rights, insufficient investment, and imports undercutting local producers (Lička-senjska, 2005). Sisačko-moslovačka county had a population of 185,387 at the 2001 census, a decline of 65,691 from % of the population declared themselves as Serbs in the 2001 census, compared to 34.5% in the 1991 census. The county seat Sisak has been a centre of the oil industry since 1927 and a major refinery still operates there. There are five other towns and 13 rural municipalities. The central area is the most populated, with the western and southern parts traditionally areas of out-migration to major cities, especially Zagreb and abroad. The war meant that there was significant out migration across the whole territory. The overall population density is 41.5 persons per sq. km (Sisačko-moslovačka, 2011). The age structure of the population has changed considerably: in 1991, 13.5% of the population was 65 or over, by 2011 this had risen to 18.1%. Unemployment is high (registered unemployment in 2010 was 29.9%, the highest in Croatia) and tends to be long-term and to affect older people with some 35% of the registered unemployed over 45 years of age. Šibenska-kninska county had a population in 2001 of 112,891, some 26% less than in 1991, reducing its population density from 51 inhabitants per sq. km. to 38. The most densely populated is the coastal area, including the city of Šibenik which has a population of 49,000. A feature of this area is that it has been a site of immigration both during and after the war, particularly by Croats from Bosnia-Herzegovina. There are also some islands which are scarcely populated, with a total population in 2001 of only 1,191, representing a 25% decline in population over 30 years. The hinterland, including the town of Knin, was the most affected during the war, and lost around half of its total population. This area is marked by an ageing population, depopulated villages, and large stretches of uncultivated and unmanaged land (Šibensko-kninska, 2005; 5). The other feature of the hinterland is that there has been some Final Country Report Croatia 21

22 return of refugees and displaced persons as well as settlement of immigrant Croats from Bosnia-Herzegovina. The area around Knin was one of the hardest hit in the war and Knin was the central objective of the military actions in August 1995 which returned the territory to Croatian control. After Sisačko-moslovačka and Vukovarska-srijemska counties, the county suffered the third highest level of forced migration during the war. It now accounts for some 13% of all returnees. As at 1 June 2005, some 43,368 people had returned, including 23,166 refugee Serbs and 20,202 displaced Croats. There are an estimated 12,500 new immigrant Croats from Bosnia-Herzegovina also settled in Knin, Kistanje and Biskupije. Hints at the implications for social cohesion are given by the statement in the ROP that some 60% are on social assistance. The County Social Plan (2011) suggests that the majority of these are older people relying on seasonal work and/or on remittances from family working abroad. Now almost 21% of Knin s population is Serbian, much reduced from before the war. In four municipalities surrounding Knin, Serbs are again the majority population, but much lower than before the war. In the 2001 census, the Serbian population was 9.1%, compared to 34.2% in Labour Market and Human Capital Development in Migration Loss Regions Whilst labour market trends are complex, there is evidence that the four migration loss counties had significantly lower activity rates in 2001 than the national picture. Indeed, the four counties are among the eleven whose activity rate was below the national average, and including the two counties with the lowest activity rates (Ličko-senjska and Šibensko-kninska) (Table 4.3). All except Karlovačka have below average male activity rates and all have below average female activity rates, three of which are significantly lower than the national average. In terms of unemployment rates, using the definition of unemployed in the 2001 census 34, all of the four net migration loss counties were among the nine counties with unemployment rates above the national average, including the highest rate: Šibensko-kninska (31.0%) compared to the Croatian overall rate of 20.4% (Živić and Pokos, 2005; 219). In the last decade, these net migration loss regions, with the exception of Sisačko-moslovačka county, have not been the hardest hit by unemployment. Rather, rates have increased in other waraffected counties such as Vukovarska-srijemska, Virovitičko-podravska, and Brodskoposavska. In the latest unemployment figures all four of these counties have registered unemployment rates of between 29.1% and 29.9% (Table 4.4) 35. Whilst unemployment rates are continuously high, and rise over the period, in both Sisacko-moslovačka and, to a lesser extent, in Karlovačka counties, they fall in the other two counties over the period. In counties with lower rates initially, the impact of the crisis has been greatest, in part as a result of the fact that the crisis impacted most severely on the traditionally strong industrial regions of Croatia. In terms of the stock of human capital and the educational qualifications of the workforce, whilst Ličko-Senjska county has the lowest proportion of university and high school graduates in the workforce, taking an average between 2004 and 2008, at 5.5%, the other three net migration counties group around the average, ranging from 9.8% in Šibenskokninska to 13.4% in Karlovačka (HZZ, 2010: 18). At the other end of the educational spectrum, however, in part reflecting the age structure of the population, and based on the 2001 census data, the four net migration loss counties have a high percentage of the population without any schooling, as high as 7.9% in Šibensko-kninska, by far the highest rate in Croatia; 5.0% in Sisačko-moslovačka; 4.7% in Ličko-senjska; and 4.0% in Karlovačka, compared to a national average of 2.9% (Živić and Pokos, 2005: 220-1). The authors 34 Namely those without a job but actively seeking work in the last 12 months. 35 Table 4.4 shows the average rate of registered unemployment by county between 2007 and 2010 and the ranking in order of highest unemployment of the five net migration loss counties. Final Country Report Croatia 22

23 combine 7 indicators: demographic loss, ageing, dependency ratio, activity rates, employment and unemployment rates and an index of education, to rank the 21 counties. Whilst Karlovačka is tied for 16 th and 17 th position 36, all the three other net migration loss counties occupy the last three places in terms of overall development indicators, with Sisačko-moslovačka 19 th, Ličko-senjska 20 th and Šibensko-kninska 21 st (ibid; 222). Hence, it is clear that those counties with the largest net migration loss between 1991 and 2001 are among the most deprived in terms of a number of broad indicators. There is some evidence, however, that in the last decade, particularly in terms of labour market trends, there has been more of a convergence between these counties and other war affected counties. In more general terms, regional inequalities between the four counties, other waraffected counties, and the rest of Croatia remain significant and may even be widening. The complex causal mechanisms for this are elaborated upon in Pejnović (2004) suggesting that there is a vicious circle of out migration of the most skilled and able; a change in the age structure of the work force in terms of an ageing population; a reduction in local markets through a reduction in purchasing power; a reduction in the size and quality of local services; a fall in investment; and a concomitant increase in the gap between core and peripheral areas. Others have noted, in addition, the slow pace of demining; the inefficiency of small local government units; the lack of reform in agriculture; and problems of waste water management (MAFRD, 2009; 158). This does seem to have been the pattern in terms of migration out of the four counties but also in terms of rural-urban migration, migration to the county centres, and migration from islands. Nevertheless, in terms of productivity, there is some evidence of recovery within the net migration loss counties. The recent HZZ report calculates Entrepreneurial Assets (fizicki kapitala poduzetnika) per member of the workforce for by county. Whilst Sisačkomoslavačka (16 th ) and Karlovačka (19 th ) are still in a difficult situation, assets are higher in Šibensko-kninska (6 th ) and Ličko-senjska (11th), although there is a gap of 10:1 between Grad Zagreb at the top and Brodsko-posavska at the bottom. Trends in regional GDP per capita have been calculated for 2001 and 2007 (Table 4.5) showing that two of the four net migration loss counties grew much faster than the national average, considerably so in the case of Šibensko-kninska counties. In part, this is a result of major infrastructure projects. At the same time, Karlovačka county grew at a rate just over half of the national average and Sisačko-moslovačka county suffered a loss in GDP per capita Poverty and social exclusion in net migration loss regions As noted earlier, there is little data on poverty, social exclusion and material deprivation broken down by county in Croatia. A study (Nestić and Vecchi, 2007) calculated county poverty rates by aggregating three years of HBS data ( ). The study shows that two of the net migration loss regions have the highest county poverty rates in Croatia: Karlovačka at 33.8% and Sisačko-moslovačka at 28.3%. According to their study, whilst accounting for only 7.1% of Croatia s population, these counties account for 18.9% of the poor. The picture is more mixed regarding the other net migration loss counties. Šibensko-kninska has a rate only just above average at 13.6%; and Lička-sinjska with the lowest rate in the country at 2.5%, perhaps as a result of remittances (Nestić and Vecchi, 2007; 85). Although the nature of the urban/rural division is not made clear, using 2004 data, they state that urban poverty is 5.7% and rural poverty 17%, with almost 75% of Croatia s poor living in rural areas. In terms of social exclusion, data from the first Croatian Quality of Life survey is the most useful but rather old. In terms of levels of deprivation, three of the net migration counties are in the six Croatian counties with the highest level of material deprivation. The only exception is Sisačko-moslovačka which is ranked joint tenth worst (UNDP, 2007). In terms of housing, there is some suggestion that the migration loss counties have more problems, with the proportion with two out of four housing problems (lack of room; problems with door, windows 36 With Vukovarsko-srijemska. Final Country Report Croatia 23

24 and floors; problems of damp; lack of an indoor toilet) being 22% for Croatia as a whole but 28% in Ličko-senjska; 30% in Šibensko-kninsk; and 34% in Karlovačka county. Sisačkomoslovačka county had a lower rate of 17%, with the worst affected county being Brodskoposavska at 40%. Table 4.6 shows that access to health care, costs involved, and waiting periods tend to be above average in the four net migration loss counties, with all net migration loss counties in the eight counties with the most problems in terms of health service access. In terms of the proportion of children aged 3-4 attending pre-school, a recent text which compiled cumulative data from 1998 to 2009, found a wide range by county from 13.8% in Brodsko-Posavina to over 65% in Istarska, city of Zagreb and Zagrebačka counties. The four net migration loss counties are not amongst the 6 counties with the lowest rates, although rates are low in both Sisačko-moslovačka county (in seventh worst place with 28% enrolment) and Karlovčka (eighth worst at 29%). Ličko-senjska county had average enrolment of 33% (close to the average), and Šibensko-kninska at 46%, reflecting intense post-war investment in pre-school education. Interestingly, the authors find a strong correlation between proportion of children in kindergartens and female activity rates (Dobrotić et al., 2010). Pupil:teacher ratios for each county at primary school level (Table 4.7) show a rather narrow range around the national average, with only one of the four net migration loss counties (Sisačko-moslovačko) having a pupil:teacher ratio marginally above the average. The others are below the national average, with Ličko-senjska county by far the county with the most favourable pupil:teacher ratio. These figures hide the real issue which is the need to double up classes in some smaller rural communities. Indeed, what is perhaps most significant is that of all counties, Ličko-senjska has the fewest primary school pupils of all the Croatian counties. Regarding access to health care by county (Table 4.8), it can be observed that whilst the four net migration loss counties are worse than the national average in general, Ličko-senjska county fares particularly badly on all indices, with the lowest health coverage (if we exclude, or rather merge Zagrebačka county with the city of Zagreb which it surrounds). 5. IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON VULNERABLE GROUPS 5.1. Women There is a lack of data and research on the situation of women left behind as a result of emigration and/or rural-urban migration in Croatia. As has been discussed above, whilst the first waves of international emigration tended to involve young men, subsequent migration involved women as workers, family reunions, and the migration of married couples. At the same time, it is important to notice that there are actually fewer women, particularly women of active age, in rural areas than men. The issue of women left behind is more significant in terms of older women, particularly in rural areas. The nature of the labour force profile of women who work abroad is not clear. It is likely that, in line with other countries in the region, they are involved in caring related work Children There are no studies which estimate how many children are left behind in Croatia in situations where one or both of their parents have emigrated abroad, nor how many children have returned either with or without their parents. Annual statistical reports on the educational system in Croatia include the number of pupils learning in a language other than Croatian, and the number of foreign citizens enrolled 37, but do not give any statistics on returnees or on the extent of instances where one or both parents work abroad. The Ministry 37 Final Country Report Croatia 24

25 of Science, Education and Sport has no plans to keep such data and no policies in place 38. A series of studies undertaken by the Institute of Migration 39 in the early 1990s suggested, based on estimates from German researchers, that approximately half of all workers from former Yugoslavia in Germany had children back home, living either with one parent or with grandparents. A study from the late 1980s studied three groups of Zagreb school pupils aged 10-15: a control group; a group of returnee children from Germany; and a group of children where one or both parents worked in Germany. The study showed that, in fact, it was the control group which demonstrated the greatest problems in behaviour although there was a tendency towards some particular psychological problems in the group where one or both parents were abroad (Švob et al., 1990). Another study, apparently on the same group, found some greater health problems of returnees, correlated more with the lower educational qualifications of their parents (Đuranović et al., 1991). A study in Medjimurje County in the north-east of Croatia (see map in annex) of 134 IV to VI graders in elementary school found 31% lived only with grandmother; 58% with both grandparents and the rest with other relatives or, in one case, another caregiver. 57% of the sample had never lived with their parents (Ciglar, 1990). There is little later research on this issue. In addition, it is likely that the number of children of school age significantly decreased over the last 20 years. Nejasmić (1994) already detected a trend in which there were more family members with those working abroad in 1991 compared to 1971, although the proportion of emigrants under 15 fell from 19.7% in 1981 to 13.3% in 1991 (ibid; 150). There is a long tradition of mother tongue instruction for children of Croatian migrants abroad. This is still maintained, and governed by relevant legislation (NN 41/09 and NN 194/03). According to the Ministry of Education, the Croatian government funds or partly funds Croatian lessons for some 6,850 children abroad, through some 90 teachers in 20 countries. A recent ethnographic study of workers in Germany (Čapo Žmegač, 2007) found that a typical scenario would be for a child of a working parents to spend the first six years of life in Germany, followed by elementary school in Croatia under the care of grandparents, and then to return to Germany for secondary school. Most families who migrate are bifocal, in terms of maintaining strong links with the household back home, such that the changing migrant families living arrangements are dependent as much on macro-structural policies regulating migration as on the entire migration biography, their plan of return, and the phase in the (migratory) life course of the family (Čapo Žmegać, 2009) In this sense, we posit that the wave of family migration after 1991 was more forced migration and, thus, potentially more disruptive of children s lives than earlier migrations. The last ten years has seen significant return of children who lived abroad and were schooled abroad. However, figures are still hard to obtain. The lack of detailed policy oriented research on the issue in Croatia should not, necessarily, lead to the conclusion that it is a non-issue. The above mentioned case studies (Čapo Žmegać, 2009) illustrate the contrast between plans to stay in Germany for only a short period and, in most cases, the reality of stays for most of one s adult life. In this sense, initial ideas to leave spouses and children in Croatia were changed as circumstances changed, including the war events of the early 1990s. The study also shows that children s schooling is not a major factor in migrants choices Older people Whilst there are no specific studies on older people and migration, a recent study points to migration, both in terms of emigration and the move to urban areas by the active population, as a major cause of increasing numbers of older people living on their own in Croatia and thus needing the support of friends and neighbours as family support moves away (Podgorelec and Klempić, 2007). The Croatian population is not only ageing but increasing 38 Telephone interview csebior official, Zagreb January Notably by Melita Švob and colleagues Carmen Brčić and Sanja Podgorelac. Final Country Report Croatia 25

26 numbers of old people live alone. The 2001 census showed a population of 693,540 aged 65 or over, or 15.7% of the total population, with 14.5% of the urban population (in cities) and 17.3% of the non-urban population over 65 (Nejašmić, 2003: 40). The proportion over 80 has increased from 1% of the population in 1961 to 2.3% in 1991 and As a result of significant gender differences in life expectancy, whilst 56.4% of women over 65 in Croatia were widows, only 16.7% of men were. Even more crucially, according to the 2001 census, 64% of all single person households in Croatia are those where the person is 60 years of age or over, in total some 195,000 persons, and in 78% of the cases that person is female. Of all those 65 years of age and over, 23%, some 159,165, live alone, and a further 4.5% either in non-family households (2.6%) or in institutional care (1.9%) (Podgorelec and Klempić, 2007: 121). There is some regional variation in this figure with suggestions that in Dalmatia and Slavonia 40 there is a tendency to larger families and, therefore, more family support (Petrak et al., 2005: 43). There is little information on how far away relatives may be or how often they visit. One small study (Babić et al., 2004) on inter-generational relations on the islands of the Zadar archipelago found that almost 75% of old people who had living children received visits from them but the frequency varied according to distance away, with those living abroad or in Zagreb tending to visit only once a year. The study found a very high percentage, around 5% of old people in the sample, reliant on formal social services. What is clear is that those older people lacking consistent family support tend to be those with rather low pensions and are disproportionately in rural areas, so that the lack of formal social care services, both community-based and residential, is a key issue. Of this group, one part are those whose children migrated to work abroad. In cases where the sole householder is female, in rural areas, the household income is probably noticeably less, particularly where the woman tended to be working in subsistence agriculture or to have a small number of pensionable years of formal work (Babić et al., 2004). This combination of low income, relative isolation, high costs of transport to major centres, and considerable gaps in the provision of formal social services, combines to produce social exclusion of older people in the rural, war-affected, and net migration loss regions of Croatia Post-conflict Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) As noted above, the wars that raged in the post-yugoslav states in the 1990s created a massive crisis of forced migration, estimated to have directly affected up to 2.5 million people, with some 438,000 registered refugees in Croatia by November 1992 (Winter- Zlatković, 1995). In the complex conditions of war, combined with the uneven and contested nature of citizenship in the post-yugoslav states, accurate numbers are hard to ascertain. What is clear is that the early 1990s saw a large flow of refugees into Croatia, and a large flow out of Croatia, both to neighbouring countries and to third countries. Many were granted only temporary stay until it was deemed safe to return. It is also important that whilst many Bosnian Croats who fled Bosnia-Herzegovina obtained Croatian citizenship and settled in Croatia, Croatian Serbs who fled to Serbia were, often, not granted citizenship. After Croatia retook territory in 1995, the first wave of returnees were ethnic Croats, both IDPs and refugees, although many Bosnia Croats also settled in the newly reintegrated territories. The return of Croatian Serbs was not on the political agenda until after 2000, when commitment to this became a key test of Croatia s progress on accession to the European Union. Even here, numbers of registered returnees appear to include a significant number who retain an address elsewhere and may visit their reclaimed property rather than live in it. Based on a sample of returnees, one study suggests that as many as 50% may not be living at the registered return address (Mesić and Bagić, 2007). The study also found that more return was to small rural areas where returnees may be able to work the land and that returnees tended to be older and less well educated. 40 Dalmatia is located in the south-western part of Croatia on the Adriatic Sea; Slavonia is located in the northeastern part. Final Country Report Croatia 26

27 Total registered returns to Croatia between 2000 and 2009, according to UNHCR, is some 109,174 persons, with numbers decreasing every year to only 718 persons in 2009 (figure 5.1). By January 2010, there were 28,115 persons of concern to UNHCR in Croatia, including 2,285 IDPs (Figure 5.2). Whilst figures for 2010 are not yet available, the number of IDPs is very small, compared to its peak of 250,000 in 1995, including some 32,000 ethnic Serbs. Out of the 2,285, it has been suggested that 1,600 are ethnic Serbs still waiting to return to their property 41. In addition, there are 1,133 refugees from Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo*, and 22,583 persons categorised as others of concern, meaning returnees without a final eligibility decision. Out of the total of returnees, the overwhelming majority came from Serbia (85.8%) (table 5.3). There are still some 71,121 refugees from Croatia in the region, mainly in Serbia (87.1%, table 5.4), suggesting that of all those who fled Croatia during the wars, many have not returned a decade and a half later. Whilst most Croatian IDPs have returned, the main problem still concerns ethnic Serb returns, with many international organizations and human rights NGOs suggesting that almost half of Serb returns to and within Croatia are not sustainable. Whilst both Croat and Serb actual and potential returnees face the problems of the poor economic situation in return areas, compounded by problems of the continued existence of landmines, ethnic Serbs face continuing discrimination in accessing housing, property and employment. Implementation of legislation in areas such as property repossession, housing, reconstruction and access to citizenship has been slow. Ethnic Serb returnees face, therefore, limited access to property, utilities, education, employment, as well as occasional threats to security and, above all, a lack of social cohesion and opportunity for reintegration. One continuing barrier has been the absence of a remedy for the arbitrary cancellation of tenancy rights for former occupiers of socially owned apartments which occurred in the 1990s. This mainly affected ethnic Serbs and, in particular, those in manual work in urban areas. Alternative housing options have been made available to those who wish to return, but many have been left without any durable housing solutions or compensation for the loss of their tenancy rights. A UNHCR study indicated that up to half of Serb IDP and refugee returnees left the country or resettled elsewhere within Croatia (Mesić and Bagić, 2007). Their sample also shows the impact of poor economic prospects and high unemployment on return. Some 37% of returnees in their study were over 65, compared to only 17% of the population as a whole, and children were only 12%, half the figure in the general population. Over time, whilst institutional obstacles have been removed, there has been a noticeable absence of any meaningful incentives encouraging return (Harvey, 2006) Roma Whilst in the 2001 census only 9,463 persons or 0.21% of the population of Croatia, declared themselves to be Roma, best estimates from the Council of Europe, quoted in a 2004 report (Hrvatić, 2004) are that the true Roma population is between 30,000 and 40,000, or around 1% of the total Croatian population, although some Roma associations have suggested figures between 60,000 and even 150,000 (Hrvatić, 2004). Roma are present in 15 counties in Croatia, most significantly in Međimurje county in the east of Croatia, where estimates (Novak et al., 2011) suggest up to 30% of the total Croatian Roma live, in Varaždinska county, in Osiječko-baranska County and in settlements on the edge of Zagreb. Most Roma live in separated settlements, on the outskirts of urban centres or in rural areas, with the size of settlement between 200 and 1,000 people (ERRC, 1998), with the majority of Roma reportedly living in one of 25 such settlements (Novak et al., 2011 and Map figure 5.5). Whilst old research suggests that 51% of Croatia's Roma population were born where they now live, 17% moved within Croatia, and 32% moved into Croatia from elsewhere (UNDP, 20056), there is a lack of current data. Nevertheless, the break-up of Yugoslavia and the wars led to 41 Personal interview, UNHCR, April * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. Final Country Report Croatia 27

28 many Roma moving to Croatia from other former Yugoslav Republics and many Roma leaving Croatia. A consequence of the break-up of Yugoslavia is that a significant number of Roma in Croatia lack Croatian citizenship, in part as a result of never having held a republic passport and partly as a result of strict and probably discriminatory Croatian citzenship requirements. Whilst UNHCR estimates that up to 1,000 Croatian Roma may be at risk of statelessness (UNHCR, 2010; 1), it is likely that a significantly larger number have some citizenship but not Croatian. There is clear and consistent evidence of the systematic over-representation of Croatian Roma amongst those suffering from poverty and social exclusion. Data from a large UNDP sample survey from 2004 show rates of poverty amongst Roma much higher than the general population but, significantly, also from the population living in close proximity to Roma, with Roma poverty rates are 12% compared to 2% for the majority population in close proximity. Crucially, the depth of poverty was also significantly greater. Unemployment rates, using LFS definitions, for Roma in the sample ranged from 35% for the age group to 52% for those and over 55 (UNDP, 2006a; 21). Unemployment rates for women were higher than for men except for the 55 and over age group, where male unemployment reached 57%. A micro-study of employment of Roma in Zagreb and Međimurje (Novak et al., 2007) found that of those registered as unemployed in Međimurje, 17% were Roma, although they make up, officially, only 2.4% of the population or, unofficially, about 5%. A similar 400% over-representation of Roma amongst the unemployed was found in Zagreb (ibid; 14). Many Roma settlements lack electricity and adequate water, sewage and drainage facilities. There is no clear data on the proportion of Roma who have one or more family member abroad nor whether these Roma live better, as a result of remittances, or worse, as a result of loss of a breadwinner, than their peers. It is likely that many Roma households continue to function across national borders. 6. POLICY RESPONSES Migration policy in Croatia from 2010 onwards is founded on two assumptions: that in the period up to 2061 the regional migration component of the change in the number and dynamics of population in Croatia would be substantial (CBS, 2011; 21-22); and that both the demographic and economic development of Croatia cannot be observed in isolation from neighbouring countries. Estimates of net migration for several decades ahead are based on the presumption that the present relations between Croatia and its wider surroundings will be unchanged. Such a projection implies that Croatia will retain low (from 0.5 in 2010 to 1.4 in 2041) variant of migration balance, slightly positive in the period Only for the period is a slight negative (-0.1) migration balance projected. This would indicate that statisticians assume stronger emigration flows after Croatia joins the EU in Croatia s Migration Policy for 2007/8 (NN 83/07) was subjected to considerable criticism, even by experts from the Ministry of the Interior, suggesting that it is too descriptive and lacks directions for implementation (Hrlić, 2009: 178). At the end of the last Parliament, a new Law on the Relationship between the Republic of Croatia and Croatians Living Outside Croatia (NN 124/11) was passed in October 2011, together with a broader strategy document (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2011) Encouragement of circular migration Bilateral arrangements between the Croatian Employment Service and respective agencies in Germany from 2002 to 2010 fulfil some of the conditions for circular migration, including employment of guest workers for up to 18 months (NN14/2002). The number agreed from was just 1,275 guest workers employed in Germany. 42 The Treaty on Croatia s 42 Final Country Report Croatia 28

29 Accession to the European Union (14509/11), allows for Austria and Germany to set limits on temporary workers from Croatia in some sectors, including construction. As regards the nursing professions, a specific bilateral agreement between the German and Croatian employment agencies enables the employment of Croatian skilled workers in the field of nursing and elderly care in Germany on the basis of specific demands expressed from the side of employers. Conditions for employment in Germany are the accomplishment of an officially recognised vocational education in the field of nursing or elderly care in Croatia (or other states of former Yugoslavia before 1991) and good knowledge of the German language. The bilateral agreement foresees close cooperation of both employment agencies for the process of selection and recruitment of each worker in the frame of a standardised and supervised contracting process 43. Besides this, it is a requirement of Croatian professionals that they make a request for the recognition of their formal qualifications in Germany during the first year of their employment in Germany. Under an initiative of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), a Migration Information Centre (MIC) was opened under the auspices of the Croatian Employment Service in Subsequently, centres were also opened in Split, Rijeka, and Osijek 44. The centres offer advice and guidance to migrants and potential migrants. From January 2010, responsibility for all aspects of the centres passed to the CES. In the nine month period between June 2008 and February 2009, 313 people visited the centres, 247 seeking migration, including 114 with a prior history of migration. On average, users were aged 33, 70% were unemployed and, compared to users in other parts of the Western Balkans, users tended to have fewer dependants (Flinterman, 2009). As early as 2005, the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports launched the Unity Through Knowledge Fund 45 to enhance cooperation between Croatia and Croatian top scientists in the Diaspora. The broad aim of the UKF scheme is to promote common projects between Croatian researchers in Croatia and those abroad. Initial funding was some 5 m. to promote scientific and technological development and ensure that know-how remains in Croatian ownership. In the period from December 2007 until March 2011, 80 scientific and technological projects were launched, 30 of which are still ongoing with funds committed some 5.3 m. In the same period 299 project proposals were submitted to all UKF Fund Programs and the overall funds requested were about 30 m., suggesting that there is a large demand for such programmes. The run-up to the referendum on EU membership prompted renewed debate on the loss of skilled labour and the need for policies which promote mobility of skilled labour and which encourage the return of students and scientists from abroad Return Migration and the Integration of Returnees Apart from the services offered by Migration Information Centres, there appears to be no specific programmes of support aimed at integrating returning migrants into the labour market. Some support is offered to returning migrants by Croatian cultural associations and by a small number of NGOs operating in Croatia. The assumption appears to be that returning migrants have sufficient resources to manage their return through normal channels, although there is too little research to actually support this conclusion. Whilst migrants would 43 Employment of Croatian personnel the frame of this programme is open only to institutionalised employers, not to private households in Germany. The minimum working period proposed to the Croatian worker must be one year. The working contract in German and Croatian languages has a standardised form and must comply with German regulations and existing collective agreements as regards wages and working conditions. The Croatian professionals are recruited twice a year in the frame of personal interviews undertaken by officials of the Croatian and German employment agencies. Exempted from the interview are candidates who already hold a recognition of their qualification as a nurse or elderly carer from the competent German authorities. Source: among others ZAV, January See 45 See Final Country Report Croatia 29

30 not be excluded from support programmes in terms of retraining and vocational guidance, the lack of specific attention to their needs may be sub-optimal. Croatia has been a participant in the Bologna process creating a European Higher Education Area since 2001, and its structure has been aligned with Bologna since In theory, this means that, through the European Credit Transfer System (ECTS), there should be no problems in recognising Croatian higher education qualifications abroad and no problem recognising, in Croatia, qualifications obtained abroad. Croatia also has, since 2007, approved a Croatian Qualifications Framework (CROQF), which should also facilitate this process, although there are problems in implementation, particularly relating to selfcertification by the Croatian Government, which has not yet occurred. The 2007 Act on Adult Education also allows for prior informal or non-formal learning to be considered in applications for higher education. In practice, there is still too much discretion and some delays within the system so that recognition of qualifications gained abroad is sub-optimal. Processes of recognition of diplomas are expensive and time-consuming Return of Diaspora A New Law on the Relations between the Republic of Croatia and Croatians outside Croatia, passed at the end of October 2011 by Parliament (NN 124/11), allows for Croatians in the Diaspora to continue to be given Croatian citizenship, whilst extending the time which foreigners need to live in Croatia before being eligible. The Law is vague as to whether it means all those with some links to Croatia or only ethnicised Croats. The Law obliges the Government to strengthen and develop economic and cultural ties with the Diaspora 46. The goals are: to put in motion a new legislative and institutional framework for the implementation of the Strategy, to establish a central authority in charge of the relations with Diaspora, and to establish the Council of the Government for Croatians outside of Croatia. The Council will include, among others, representatives of all three groups of Croatian Diaspora. Some specific tasks of the Council would include encouragement and support to Croatian emigrants in establishing cooperation with local institutions and authorities in the countries they live in and economic, educational and scientific cooperation with Croatian scientists and businessmen outside of Croatia. In the field of circulation of migrants, the Strategy aims to attract specific groups of emigrants such as established scientists and pupils and students. The return of emigrants and their offspring, modelled on other immigration countries, will become a priority (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2011; 11). In order to monitor the processes of cooperation and return of young and established scientists, the Government will introduce a programme of monitoring through mentor-counsellors, and put in place a permanent programme of virtual mentorship and cooperation with a view to transferring the necessary know-how (ibid; 11) between established scientists of Croatian origin and students and teachers in Croatia Reintegration of IDPs and Refugees Immediately after the 1995 military and police actions which reintegrated territory under the control of the Croatian Government, there was a concerted effort to fulfil the conditions for the return of ethnic Croats displaced from these regions. Whilst some of this effort, including the Laws on Areas of Special State Concern detailed in Section 6.5 below, was generally applicable to all returnees, other actions were clearly discriminatory. In particular, a significant number of tenancy rights were terminated on the grounds that the occupants had been absent from their place of permanent residence for more than 6 months. This provision applied mainly to so-called social housing in urban centres and overwhelmingly affected ethnic Serbs who had fled during or after the war. Some 24,000 tenancies were terminated 46 Under the Diaspora, the Law includes Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina (presently about 400,000), members of Croatian minorities in 12 European countries (about 350,000), and Croats who emigrated overseas and their offspring (about 3 million) (NN 124/11; 1). Final Country Report Croatia 30

31 by the Government and many thousands more by local court decisions or by simple repossession. Other Laws also allowed for the legal seizure of vacated property which was then given to ethnic Croat returnees whose property had been destroyed, and also to newly settled Bosnian Croats, thus heightening tensions and creating significant barriers to the later return of Croatian Serbs (Human Rights Watch, 1999: 16). As noted above, after 2000 the issue of return and reintegration of Croatian Serbs became a stated Government policy priority, in line with EU accession requirements. The Knin Conclusions set out the broad framework for the process of return, followed by a Housing Action Plan for , and provisions on political representation and the right to education in minority languages (Koska, 2008: 16). Whilst the reconstruction of housing units began well, the process has now slowed considerably. The Government has not met its target to complete the reconstruction process by the end of In the last three years the government has rebuilt fewer than 1,500 housing units, compared to over 9,500 in 2005, and almost 60,000 out of 200,000 destroyed houses have not been rebuilt. Decisions on reconstruction assistance, in terms of materials and labour costs, are often not made within deadlines set by law, and many proceedings last for several years. As of May 2009, more than 2,500 cases and 7,000 appeals against negative decisions were still to be resolved. In 2008, the government adopted an action plan and established the Department for National Minorities to enforce the Constitutional Law on National Minorities, which obliges local authorities as well as public enterprises to employ representatives of minorities according to their percentage within the overall population. However, these national policies are not necessarily reflected at local levels and the reluctance of some local authorities to implement laws and government policies on non-discrimination, in particular with regard to returnees, has been observed. In the same year, the situation of older IDPs and returnees became a little easier as a new government policy to recognise periods of work in areas under Serb control during the war paved the way for increased pension entitlements. At the end of May 2009, almost 16,000 resulting claims had been lodged with the Croatian pension fund, half of the requests had been processed and 3,500 approved. However, there have been no administrative procedures to help returnees take possession of their agricultural land (Human Rights Watch, 2009). The only option is to initiate a lengthy and costly court procedure which many minority IDPs and refugees cannot afford Development of Net Migration Loss Regions In the context of the process of European integration, and with the support of the CARDS, ISPA and SAPARD programmes and later the IPA programmes, there has been an increased focus on regional and rural development laws and strategies to attempt to narrow the gap between the disadvantaged regions in Croatia and the rest of the country. The first Law on Areas of Special State Concern (ASSC) was passed in 1996, and amended in 2003 (NN 26/03). The ASSC are divided into three categories, with the first two being war-affected territories and the third being those under-developed areas of Croatia based on economic, demographic, structural and geographical criteria. There is also a special Law on the Reconstruction and Development of the Town of Vukovar (NN 44/01). The Laws contain a series of measures aimed to stimulate reconstruction and development, mainly through incentives for businesses, low-cost subsidised housing and favourable terms for the employment of workers in essential services. In 1999, Croatia passed an Islands Act, amended in 2006 (NN 33/06), which sought to introduce the idea of sustainable development planning to islands (cf. Stubbs and Starc, 2007), with a focus on stimulating economic development in the under-developed and depopulated islands. The Act on Hilly and Mountainous Areas, passed in 2002 and amended in 2005 (NN 90/2005) completed the territorial definition of disadvantaged areas, and includes provisions regarding priority rights and incentives for agricultural activities. Final Country Report Croatia 31

32 The financial and strategic framework for regional and rural development has been set since 2000, with the establishment in 2001 of the Fund for Regional Development (NN 107/01) and, much later, with the Law on Regional Development passed on 29 December 2009 (NN 153/09), and in May 2010 the Strategy for Regional Development of the Republic of Croatia, (Ministry of Regional Development, 2010). A guide to the Construction of an Index of Development (NN 63/10) has also been developed, consisting of five elements: unemployment rate; GDP per capita; local/regional government budget; demographic structure; and level of employment. The impacts of this set of activities and measures needs to be addressed in the context of the deep and long-term nature of developmental inequalities in Croatia, the devastating impact of the war in the first half of the 1990s, and the sheer complexity of the diverse Croatian social, demographic, political, economic and territorial landscape. Regional inequalities tended to increase rather than decrease between 2000 and 2005, although they appear not to have widened dramatically since. At the same time, the funds devoted to reducing inequalities have been severely limited in the context of a centralised framework. Most importantly, however, the regional development framework has not yet succeeded at creating clearer co-ordination and partnerships between actors with both horizontal and vertical co-ordination extremely weak. In terms of rural development, Croatia has benefitted from the SAPARD and later IPA-RD programme and elaborated an Agriculture and Rural Development Plan for (Ministry of Agriculture, 2009). This complements a number of Government programmes underpinned by a Law on Agriculture (NN 83/02), and the Law on State Aid in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (NN 141/06). Together, they cover four schemes, one rather large, a production subsidies scheme, and three smaller, covering income support, capital investment grants, and rural development. The rural development scheme covers general rural development, as well as support for product marketing and protected breeds. The scheme covers a wide range of activities including infrastructure development, support to young farmers, and promotion of rural tourism. Again, the impact of the programme on net migration loss rural areas is unclear, although the IPA-RD report notes the deep structural problems facing rural development in Croatia, and the fact that implementation is, again, weakened by poor co-ordination between key stakeholders and policy actors and, crucially, the weak activity or non-existence of regional and local institutions competent for rural development (MAFRD, 2009; 200). The problem is, of course, compounded by the fact that there is a need to modernise agriculture through mechanisation and consolidation of farm sizes in Croatia as well as the need to control subsidies in the context of both fiscal discipline and EU accession and the alignment with the CAP. Whilst, in the longer-term, this objective is likely to improve rural development for all, in the short term it itself may result in negative social impacts which are not being addressed in Government policy to the extent that may be needed, including further loss of the most active and skilled part of the rural population. By far the most significant support comes from the European Union s IPA programmes with two of the five programmes focussing specifically on regional development and rural development, to an indicative value of 72.8m. or 47.4% of the total IPA programming in In addition, the programme on Cross-border co-operation is worth some 15.6m (see Table 6.1). To the best of our knowledge, none of the initiatives are specifically focused on issues of migration although many can be seen to be linked to the goal of reducing the depopulation of underdeveloped regions and rural areas through improved quality of life and enhanced livelihoods. 6.6 Support to Vulnerable Groups Croatia s priorities in terms of social inclusion are set out in the Joint Memorandum on Social Inclusion which was signed on 5 March 2007 with a subsequent cycle of implementation planning and monitoring and regular consultative conferences (Govt of Croatia/European Final Country Report Croatia 32

33 Commission, 2007) 47. There is very little reference in the document or in follow-up initiatives to migration in general, and therefore little on the mitigation of the negative impacts of migration, although the document does address negative demographic trends and regional inequalities. Within the JIM, there is a strong focus on anti-discrimination and the importance of support for vulnerable groups, including Serbian returnees and Roma in terms of the labour market and access to health, education and other social services. There is also a focus on disadvantaged groups in the context of the Joint Assessment on Employment (JAP) (Govt of Croatia/European Commission, 2008). Within the reform of social welfare, closer linkages between welfare and employment services are envisaged, so that, in the future, there may be greater focus on returning labour migrants. Within the JIM, the issue of older people without pensions was established as a key issue, with estimates that this involved some 20% of the population aged 60 or over (Govt of Croatia/European Commission 2007; 28), with a broad commitment to introducing a basic social pension, which might benefit returnees to Croatia and those older people in rural areas lacking sufficient contributions for an insurance-based pension. A later study, used in the JIM reporting, suggested some 12.4% of older people lacked a pension in Croatia (Šućur, 2008). In part because of the economic and financial crisis, and in part because of the difficulty in setting a level for the pension, the commitment has been postponed and its fate is now uncertain given the change in Government. Croatia has a number of programmes, often introduced on a pilot basis through international assistance, to increase the network of community-based social services and to promote the regional planning of social protection services. These initiatives are, still at a relatively early stage and it is far from clear what impact they have had in terms of reducing the social exclusion of those left behind. As noted above, within rural development initiatives, the issue of access to community-based services has not been emphasised sufficiently and, at the same time, supporting NGOs operating in rural areas has been an implicit rather than explicit aspect of the process of state support to NGOs as social service providers with the result that, in open national competitions, there is still a bias towards programmes which focus on urban areas. Croatia has a National Programme for Roma from 2003 and is involved in the Decade of Roma Inclusion Significant funding has been provided by the Croatian authorities and the European Commission to improve infrastructure and housing in some Roma settlements, and there has been a marked increase in total funding of the National Programme for Roma, totalling 5.3m in 2009 compared to 2.4m in 2008, mainly through an increase in EU support. At the same time, a number of initiatives to raise Roma employment and to increase pre-school and school attendance have been implemented. There appear to be no special programmes to support Roma who return to Croatia having been abroad Best practice examples of policy responses Thus far, we would suggest that, at least potentially, the following two programmes are examples of good practice in Croatia which are capable of being transferred to other countries. 1. The Unity Through Knowledge Fund (UKF) As noted in Section 6.1, the UKF seeks to connect Croatian scientists with those of Croatian descent, and others, working in the diaspora. As stated above, the scheme funded some 80 projects from December 2007, 30 of which are still ongoing, to a total of about Euro 5.3 m. with funds requested to around 5 times that amount. The Fund was financed through a World Bank Loan, and included a number of innovative schemes, including a Homeward Grant, 47 See also vanju_rh). Final Country Report Croatia 33

34 Crossing Border Grant, Reintegration Grant, Research in Industry and Academy Grant, and My First Research Topic Grant. Statistics suggest that between 2003 and 2010, some 81 professors, lecturers and other highly skilled scientists returned to Croatia, including 24 women, with the vast majority between 2006 and The economic crisis led to a slow down. In the context of rather low levels of state funding for Croatian scientific institutions, and somewhat poor laboratory conditions for natural scientists, the bigger question is whether there is retention or, at least, a continued commitment to collaboration with Croatian colleagues, amongst those abroad who obtain UKF grants. As an idea, it does seem worthy of exploration in terms of possible transfer to other countries which may have experienced a similar loss of well qualified scientists abroad. 2. Migration Information Centres (MIC) Whilst rather small scale thus far, Migration Information Centres could be a crucial link in the chain supporting circular labour migrants including not only those who wish to seek employment abroad but also those who are considering returning to take up employment again in Croatia. Given their location within the Croatian Employment Service, they have the potential to play a much greater role on terms of providing advice, guidance and assistance and, crucially, in terms of maintaining accurate information on the demand for and supply of migrant and returning labour in Croatia and, in liaison with similar bodies in other countries, also abroad. Again, in the context of the complex regional dimension of migration in Croatia, it may be that there is a need for this service to be more readily available in all of the net migration loss counties in Croatia and not just in the big cities. Linkages with normal Employment Services, with major employers, and with Centres for Social Welfare may also need to be strengthened. As a broad concept, however, the idea is clearly transferable to other countries. 7 KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1. Key challenges of the social impact of emigration and internal migration The analysis thus far has suggested that the following are the most important challenges faced by Croatia in terms of the social impacts of emigration: 1. Croatia has not developed strong links between migration data, analysis and evidencebased policy making, particularly in terms of the social dimension. Migration Policy has been rather fitful, vague, and has lacked clear vision and capacity. There has been poor co-ordination of stakeholders in relation to migration issues. 2. Croatia does not yet have a clear, consistent and credible migration policy which is fit for purpose in terms of managing migration inflows and outflows in the context of labour market needs. There is a lack of clear labour market analysis and hence a mismatch between the needs for labour and a clear encouragement of different forms of migration to meet those needs. This is most apparent in some key high value sectors of the Croatian economy. 3. Whilst return emigration is generally seen as welcome in Croatia, this is largely for demographic reasons. Hence, there has been no real preparation for the fact that there is a potential wave of returnees of an older generation of guest workers who have spent a considerable time abroad. 4. Whilst, in part as a condition of EU accession, there have been more consistent and consolidated efforts to facilitate the sustainable return of Croatian Serbs who left as a result of war events in the 1990s, much remains to be done to ensure that basic employment, housing, residence, and social protection systems are in place, as well as a more rigorous enforcement of anti-discrimination legislation. Final Country Report Croatia 34

35 5. Whilst efforts have been made to limit the loss of well qualified Croatian scientists and professionals abroad, and to create conditions for their sustainable return, more may need to be done, particularly in the context of Croatia s impending membership of the European Union. 6. Those children who have one or both parents working abroad and/or whose schooling takes place both abroad and in Croatia, whilst numbers are not known, face potential problems in terms of their psycho-social adjustment, reintegration and educational attainment which are not sufficiently addressed at the policy level. In terms of the social impacts of internal, rural-urban, and spatially specific migration and in terms of net migration loss regions, we note the following challenges: 1. In the absence of sound regional labour market analysis and planning, there is a real danger that some of the more disadvantaged parts of Croatia, namely the war affected, net migration loss and rural areas, will fall further behind in terms of economic and social indicators, causing an intensification of a vicious circle of out-migration of a significant part of the active, educated and productive population. 2. In this context, the problems of isolated older people locked in poverty and social exclusion with little or no family support in these same areas, are likely to worsen in the medium-term unless remedial action is taken. This applies, particularly, to returnees of Serbian ethnicity who fled during the war. 3. The vulnerability of Roma communities in relation to one or more of their family members living abroad has not been addressed sufficiently either in research or in policy Policy Suggestions 1. There is a clear need for improved data gathering and, crucially, analysis of migration trends in Croatia. The 2011 census provides an opportunity for the elaboration, as soon as possible, by responsible experts, of reliable statistics related to return, internal mobility, immigration and emigration. On the basis of this, a new long-term Migration Policy (for 10 years) and medium-term Action Plan (5 years) should be produced, based on different migration scenarios. This should be led by a clearly designated and competent central body, appointed by Government or Parliament, which can liaise with the European Union and destination countries on a bilateral basis, becoming a centre for reliable and timely migration policy development and monitoring of its implementation. Such a body will need to coordinate and consult with all stakeholders with an interest in the issue of migration in Croatia. The body should prioritise studies and actions to mitigate the negative social impacts of migration. 2. Relevant policy makers need to address two different groups. The first are those target populations which are now, and are likely in the future, to be involved in external mobility. Advice and support in terms of maximizing the possibilities for migration and return will be needed for the young and highly educated, particularly women, not just those who have qualification which fit with emerging EU labour market demands, but also those graduates and post-graduates who have non-complementary qualifications, including those in the humanities fields. The second group are those left behind who may be at risk of poverty and social exclusion as a direct or indirect result of migration. Here, there is a need for a clear focus on vulnerable groups in the context of migration in the development of social inclusion and active employment policies, including older people, children, and minorities. Collaboration between NGOs working on these issues and governmental bodies will be needed in the future. 3. Whilst there is limited capacity within counties, there is a need to improve investments, particularly in net migration loss areas, targeting those skills which are needed, targeting those most at risk of leaving, and promoting entrepreneurship, particularly of women. In addition, closer linkages between Employment and Social Welfare services are needed. In addition, the development of more Migration Information Centres may be considered. Final Country Report Croatia 35

36 Perhaps even more importantly, stronger linkages between the Diaspora and domestic development agencies need to be developed in order to explore ways of channelling remittances for development. The new Law on the Diaspora will be useful if the institutional arrangements relate to all Croatian citizens and potential citizens living outside Croatia. 4. Concerted effort needs to be made by the Croatian government and development partners to ensure the sustainable return of all Croatian Serbs who wish to return, through increased funding for reconstruction, rigorous implementation of anti-discrimination policies and employment programmes, and the removal of remaining barriers to return. 5. Expanding the work of the Unity Through Knowledge Fund to create improved conditions for the return of qualified Croatian scientists abroad and enhanced links between scientists abroad and those in Croatia is a necessary but not sufficient condition to halt the loss of Croatian scientists abroad. More investment in science in Croatia will also be needed. 6. The European Union, through its IPA funding, should prioritise migration related issues in the fields of employment, through supporting initiatives to promote circular migration, as well as supporting social inclusion programmes specifically concerned with those who are at risk as a result of migration. There needs to be much more emphasis on the social dimension of rural and regional development programmes. 7. Studies are needed urgently into those issues where there is insufficient information at this stage to make clear policy recommendations. These include: children left behind or being educated in different countries; intentions of the older generation of guest workers to return and their social conditions; the problems in practice with bilateral social security agreements; and the nature and problems of migration of Roma. 8. As EU membership approaches, there is a clear need to develop a third arm of migration policy beyond unilateral policies based on national sovereignty and binding agreements within the EU, in terms of a flexible, and non-binding, regional focus in relation to neighbouring non-eu member states in South East Europe. A regional approach will need to involve a wide range of stakeholders in pro-active encouragement of circular migration including student mobility. Through exchange of information and good practices in the field of common policies in labour mobility, practical solutions could be developed which tap into some of the available labour in the region, including young educated unemployed or semiemployed women and men who would benefit from being informed and possibly navigated through availability of migration incentives. Crucially, there would be a need to explore more flexible social protection policies to maximise the possibilities of circular mobility for these groups. 9. Debates prior to EU accession have shown the need for a public awareness campaign, involving the mass media, to challenge some of the myths regarding migration and to show the importance of greater tolerance of others in what remains a largely mono-ethnic society. 10. There is no doubt that young women in Croatia will make up a significant part of future migration flows. To work on building coordination and coherence in migration policies at the national and regional level having women and young people, including young women, as a prime focus could foster significantly increased employment rates. 11. A new forum, including EU, regional, and international elements should be established concerned with all aspects of the migration-development nexus for both receiving and sending countries in the region and beyond. This forum could be the source of new ideas on how to strengthen more even development nationally, regionally and internationally. Final Country Report Croatia 36

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39 32. Harvey, J. (2006) Return Dynamics in Bosnia and Croatia: a comparative analysis, International Migration 44(3); HGK (Croatian Chamber of Commerce) (2008) Shipbuilding. Zagreb: HGK. Web: HGK (Croatian Chamber of Commerce) (2010) Croatian Construction Industry, Zagreb: HGK, Web: Hrlić, D. (2009) Razvoj migracijske politike Europske Unije (The Development of EU Migration Policy), Masters thesis, Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb. 36. Hrvatić, N. (2004) Romi u Hrvatskoj: od migracija do interkulturalnih odnosa (Roma in Croatia: from migration to inter-cultural relations), Migracijske teme 20 (4); Human Rights Watch (1999) Second Class Citizens: the Serbs of Croatia. Human Rights Watch 11 (3), available at: (accessed 14 May 2012) 38. HZZ (Croatian Employment Bureau) (2010) Analitički bilten 12(4). 39. Jurlina Alibegović, D. et al. (2010) Analitičke podloge za učinkovitu decentralizaciju u Hrvatskoj (Analytical theses for effective decentralisation in Croatia) Zagreb: EIZ, Web: Karlovačka županija (2005) ROP, (English version), web: Karlovačka županija (2011) Social Plan (in Croatian). Unpublished. 42. Kersan-Škabić, I. (2002) Konkurentnost Hrvatske brodogradnje (Competitiveness of Croatian Shipbuilding), Ekonomski pregled 53(1-2); Kolčić, I. et al. (2005) Research Involvement, Specialty Choice, and Emigration preferences of Final Year Medical Students in Croatia, Croatian Medical Journal 46(1); Web: Koska, V. (2008) Return and reintegration of minority refugees: the complexity of the Serbian returnees experiences in the town of Glina, Politička misao XLV(5); Koska, V. (2011) The evolution of the Croatia citizenship regime: from independence to EU integration. CITSEE Working Paper 15, University of Edinburgh. Web: egimefromindependencetoeuintegration.pdf 46. Krešić, H. and A. Makek (2008) Novi List 14 September, English translation at Kupiszewski, M. et al. (2009) Labour migration patterns, policies and migration propensity in the Western Balkans. IOM/CEFMR. 48. Leitner, S. and M. Holzner (209) Inequality in Croatia in Comparison, wiiw Research Report 355, Vienna: wiiw. 49. Ličko-senjska županija (2005) ROP, (English version), web: Ličko-senjska županija (2011) Social Plan (in Croatian), unpublished. 51. Lovrinčević, Ž. Et al (2004) Područja posebne državne skrbi u Hrvatskoj - razlike u regionalnoj razvijenosti i demografsko-obrazovne karakteristike (Areas of Special State Concern in Croatia: regional disparities and demographic and educational characteristics) Ekonomski pregled: mjesečnik Hrvatskog društva ekonomista Zagreb. 55, 5-6; Final Country Report Croatia 39

40 52. Magaš, D., J. Faričić and R. Lončarić (2006) Geographical Basis of Socio-Economic Revitalization of Unije Island, Croatia, in Geoadria 11(2); Mesić, M. and Bagić, D. (2007) Sustainability of Minority Return in Croatia. Zagreb: UNHCR. 54. Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (MAFRD) (2009) Agriculture and Rural Development Plan , IPARD. 55. Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2011) Strategy on the Relationship Between the Republic of Croatia and Croatians Outside Croatia. Web: Strategija%20o%20odnosima%20RH%20s%20Hrvatima%20izvan%20RH- ENGLESKI.pdf 56. Ministry of Regional Development (2010) Strategy for Regional Development of the Republic of Croatia, , web: (Croatian language version) 57. Nejašmić, I. (1994) Hrvatski građani na radu u inozemstvu: razmatranje popisnih podataka 1971, 1981, 1991 (Croatian citizens working abroad: examination of the census data of 1971, 1981 and 1991), Migracijske teme 10(2); Nejašmić, I. (2003) Značajke biološkog (demografskog) sastava stanovništva Hrvatske (Demographic characteristics of the Croatian population), Hrvatski geografski glasnik, 65 (1/2); Nejasmić, I. (2008) Stanovništvo Hrvatske demografske studije i analize, (The Croatian Population: demographic studies and analyses) Hrvatsko geografsko društvo, Zagreb. 60. Nejašmić, I. and Štambuk, M. (2003) 'Demografsko stanje i procesi u neurbanim naseljima Republike Hrvatske' (Demographic situation and processes in non-urban settlements in the Republic of Croatia), Društvena istraživanja, 12 (3-4); Nestić, D. (1998) Ekonomska nejednakost u Hrvatskoj 1998: manje od očekivanja (Economic inequality in Croatia 1998: smaller than expected), Ekonomski pregled 53 (11-12); Nestić, D. (2005) Income Distribution in Croatia: what do the household budget data tell us?, Financijski teorija i praksa 29(1); NN (Official gazette) (2009) Decision on work permits 2010, Web: NN (Official Gazette) (2011) Law on the Relationship Between the Republic of Croatia and Croatians Outside the Republic of Croatia, Web: (English version Novak, J. et al. (2007) Zapošlavanje Roma i Romkinja u Republici Hrvatskoj (Employment of Roma in Croatia), Study by IDEMO for Office for National Minorities, web: kinja%20%e2%80%93%20procjena%20stanja,%20potrebe%20i%20preporuke.pdf 66. Novak, J. et al. (2011) 'Provedba Akcijskoga plana Desetljeća za uključivanje Roma za Hrvatsku u periodu Godina (Implementation of the Action Plan for the Decade of Roma Inclusion for the period ). Unpublished study by Human Rights Centre for UNDP. Final Country Report Croatia 40

41 67. OECD (2006) International Migrant Remittances and their Role in Development, in OECD Migration Handbook 2006, Web: Pavic, Z. (2010) Croatia, IOM (ed.) Migration, Employment and Labour Market Integration Policies in the European Union, Part 1, IOM. 69. Pejnović, D. (2004) Depopulacija županija i disparitet u regionalnom razvoju Hrvatske, (Depopulation of Counties and Disparities in Regional Development in Croatia), in Društvena istraživanja 13 (4-5); Petrak, O. et al. (2005) Kvaliteta starenja... (The Quality of ageing some characteristics of the elderly population of Istria in comparison with other regions of Croatia), Revija za socijalnu politiku 13 (1); Pifak-Mrzljak, G. et al. (2004) Brain Drain and the Academic and Intellectual Labour Market in Croatia. Zagreb: Ruđer Bošković Institute. 72. Podgorelec, S. and Klempić, S. (2007) Starenje i neformalna skrb o starim osobama u Hrvatskoj (Ageing and informal care of elderly persons in Croatia), Migracijske i etničke teme 23(1/2); Poprzenovic, A. (2007) Remittances and Income Inequality in Croatia. Masters Thesis, Lund University, Sweden. Web: Rismondo, M. (2011) Osiguranici i korisnici mirovina u mirovinskom osiguranju (Insured and Pension beneficiaries in the Pensions Insurance System), presentation to Banka round table, 16 February. 75. Schiopu, I. and N. Siegfried (2006) Determinants of Workers Remittances: evidence from the European Neighbouring Region, European Central Bank Working Paper Series 688, Web: Sisačko-moslovačka županija (2011) Social Plan (in Croatian), unpublished. 77. Sokolić, J. (1994) Otok Susak mogućnosti revitalizacije (The island of Susak the possibilities of revitalisation), Društvena istraživanja 5 (4-5); Starc, N. (2004) Small islands and large scale spatial development patterns story of the Croatian island of Unije, XI World Congress of Rural Sociology, Trondheim, Norway. 79. Šibensko-kninska županija (2005) ROP (in English), web: VISED_.pdf 80. Sisačko-moslovačka županija (2007) County Development Strategy , web: Skupnjak-Kapić S. et al. (2005) Cross Border Labour Migration Flows Croatia-Italy: focus on shipbuilding. IOM: Zagreb. 82. Stubbs, P. and N. Starc (2007) Islanders versus the State?: participation in island development programmes in Croatia. 47th Congress of the European Regional Science Association - Local governance and sustainable development, Paris: European Regional Science Association. 83. Šućur, Z. (2008) Socijalna sigurnost i kvaliteta života starijih osoba bez mirovinskih primanja u Republici Hrvatskoj (Social security and quality of life of older people without pensions in Croatia), Revija za socijalnu politiku 15 (3); Švaljek, S. and D. Nestić (2008) The Croatian demographic reality and labour market challenges, in M. Vehovec (ed.) New Perspectives on a Longer Working Life in Croatia Final Country Report Croatia 41

42 and Slovenia. Zagreb: EIZ and FES; Web: Švob, M. et al. (1990) Ponašanje učenika migranata i nemigranata (The behaviour of school pupils of migrants and non-migrants), Migracijske teme 6 (4); UNDP (2006a) At Risk: Roma and the Displaced in South East Europe. UNDP Bratislava. 87. UNDP (2006b) Unplugged: faces of social exclusion in Croatia. Zagreb: UNDP National Human Development Report, available at: (accessed 14 May 2012). 88. UNDP (2007) Kvaliteta života u Hrvatskoj: Regionalne nejednakosti (uality of Life in Croatia: regional inequalities, Zagreb: UNDP. 89. UNDP (2008) NUTS Classifications in Croatia. Available at: e/198/99182/filename/nuts_klasifikacija_pojasnjenje.doc+undp+2008+nuts+in+ Croatia&hl=en&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESghUsepaK9_oFrnR_1qRb580I0Yvk22Ombb6652 HregwjTxhHxcu6Gzy2tb_Tdt5nf62ulZyXdFxRuDlYRSWP8-5iPHif8YFfnKZwmMefP3ssmRs5wKop6QN1WAX9IXHTMC7eNF&sig=AHIEtbTqk1Xg4 7j9EkMhAxmkSH-6pszHwg&pli=1 (accessed 14 May 2012) 90. UNHCR Croatia Fact Sheet (2010) web: Wertheimer-Baletić, A. (1991) 'Promjene u ekonomsko-socijalnoj strukturi stanovništva Hrvatske u poslijeratnom razdoblju (Changes in economic and social structure of population in Croatia after the war). Zagreb: Ekonomski Fakultet, Institut za ekonomska istraživanja, PAGES. 92. Wertheimer-Baletić, A. (2004) 'Depopulacija i starenje stanovništva temeljni demografski procesi u Hrvatskoj' (Depopulation and ageing crucial demographic processes in Croatia), Društvena istraživanja, 13 (4-5); Winter-Zlatković, J. (1995) 'Izbjeglice iz BiH u Hrvatskoj' (Refugees from B-H in Croatia), Migracijske teme, 8(2); World Bank (2006) Migration and Remittances: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, World Bank, Web: World Bank (2007) Croatia: economic vulnerability and welfare study. Washington: the World Bank. 96. World Bank (2011) Migration and Remittances Factbook, World Bank. 97. Zadarska županija (2006) ROP, Web: Živić, D. and N. Pokos (2005) Odabrani sociodemografski indikatori razvijenosti Hrvatske i hrvatskih županija (Chosen socio-demographic indicators of the development of Croatia and Croatian counties), Revija za sociologiju 36(3-4); Final Country Report Croatia 42

43 List of interviewees 1. National Coordinator of the Croatian Parliament for EU negotiations, Vesna Pusić, April Senior official, Croatian Pension Insurance Institute, April Official, UNHCR, April Dr.sc. Ivan Lajić, Demographer, Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, July Prof.dr. Ivica Nejašmić, Demographer, University of Zagreb, September Dr. Roko Mišetić, Migration Expert, October Senior official, Ministry of Science, Education and Sport, January 2012 Final Country Report Croatia 43

44 ANNEX: For Chapter 1: Figure 1.1: UNPA Zones in Croatia Source: Final Country Report Croatia 44

45 Figure 1.2: Total and Dependent Population, Croatia according to Medium Fertility/ Medium Migration Projection Source: CBS, reproduced in Švaljek and Nestić, 2008; 57. Final Country Report Croatia 45

46 Figure 1.3 CROATIA: Counties and NUTS II Regions Source: UNDP (2008) NUTS Classifications in Croatia. Populations are from 2001 census Final Country Report Croatia 46

47 VT/2010/0001 TABLE 1.4 Population in Croatia, by counties, Population 1971 Population 1991 Population 2001 Population 2011 Population Index 1991/1971 Population Index 2001/1991 CROATIA 4,426,221 4,784,265 4,437,460 4,290, , City of Zagreb 629, , , , Zagrebačka 232, , , , , Krapinsko-zagorska 161, , , , , Varaždinska 184, , , , , Koprivničko-križevačka 138, , , , , Međimurska 115, , , , Karlovačka 195, , , , , Bjelovarsko-bilogorska 157, , , , , Virovitičko-podravska 116, ,625 93,389 84, , Požeško-slavonska 101,750 99,334 85,831 78, , Brodsko-posavska 164, , , , , Sisačko-Moslovačka 258, , , , , Osječko-baranjska 351, , , , , Vukovarsko-srijemska 217, , , , , Primorsko-Goransko 270, , , , , Ličko-senjska 106,433 85,135 53,677 51, , Zadarska 190, , , , , Šibensko-kninska 161, , , , , Splitsko-dalmatinska 389, , , , , Istarska 175, , , , , Dubrovačko-neretvanska 108, , , , , Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics (n.b census figures are based on a different methodology) Size, km² Population density, #2011/ km² Final Country Report Croatia 47

48 Figure 1.5 Croatia, GDP per capita Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe VT/2010/0001 Source: UNICEF TransMONEE Database, Final Country Report Croatia 48

49 TABLE 1.6 Key indicators, Croatian counties GDP p/capita 2005 Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe VT/2010/0001 Unemployment 2005 Poverty rate Median Household Income 2006 PPS Depriv Index Proportion socially excluded CROATIA % Permanent social assistance beneficiaries 2004 % Persons with disabilities 2001 % of persons City of Zagreb Zagrebačka Krapinsko-zagorska Varaždinska Koprivničko-križevačka Međimurska Karlovačka Bjelovarsko-bilogorska Virovitičko-podravska Požeško-slavonska Brodsko-posavska Sisačko-Moslovačka Vukovarska-podravska Osječko-baranjska Primorsko-Goransko Ličko-senjska Zadarska Šibensko-kninska Splitsko-dalmatinska Istarska Dubrovačko-neretvanska Sources: Republic of Croatia Regional Development Strategy; Nestić and Vecchia; UNDP 2007 and UNDP 2006b Final Country Report Croatia 49

50 VT/2010/0001 Table 1.7 Employment in Croatia by Sector, Fourth Quarter, 2009 (in thousands Sector Employed Self- Employed Family Total Part-time No % No % No % No % No % AgFF* Industry Services Total 1, , Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, 2010, Labour Force Survey Croatia 2009 Europe * Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Table 1.8 NUTS II Regions Population (number) Population (%) GDP p/capita PPS 2003 (in including grey economy) GDP p/capita PPS 2003 (including grey economy EU 27 = 100) Central - East (Panonian) Croatia 1,351, , Adriatic Croatia 1,427, , North-West Croatia 1,658, , CROATIA 4,437, , Source: UNDP (2008), NUTS Classifications in Croatia. Final Country Report Croatia 50

51 VT/2010/0001 For Chapter 2: Table 2.1: Crude rate of net migration plus adjustment, Croatia (per 1,000 persons) Year Net migration Source: Eurostat. (The indicator is defined as the ratio of net migration plus adjustment during the year to the average population in that year, expressed per inhabitants. The net migration plus adjustment is the difference between the total change and the natural change of the population). Date of extraction; de=tsdde230 Final Country Report Croatia 51

52 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.2: International migration of population of Croatia, Year Immigrants Emigrants Net migration Sources: Migration of Population of Republic of Croatia 2009, First Release, Vol. XLVII, No , 26 May 2010; Migration of Population of Republic of Croastia 2010, First Release, Vol. XLVIII, No , 15 June 2011, (extracted ) Final Country Report Croatia 52

53 VT/2010/0001 TABLE 2.3 International migration by county, County/Year Immigrants Emigrants Immigrants Emigrants Immigrants Emigrants Immigrants Emigrants Immigrants Emigrants Republic of Croatia 14,230 6,012 14,978 7,692 14,622 9,002 14,541 7,488 8,468 9,940 County of Zagreb County of Krapina-Zagorje County of Sisak-Moslavina , , ,342 County of Karlovac County of Varaždin County of Koprivnica-Križevci County of Bjelovar-Bilogora County of Primorje-Gorski kotar County of Lika-Senj County of Virovitica-Podravina County of Požega-Slavonia County of Slavonski Brod- Posavina County of Zadar 1, , , , County of Osijek-Baranja , County of Šibenik-Knin County of Vukovar-Sirmium County of Split-Dalmatia 2, , , , , County of Istria , , County of Dubrovnik-Neretva County of Međimurje City of Zagreb 2,311 1,044 2,630 1,135 2,438 1,134 2, , Source: CBS Central Bureau of Statistics. Migration of Population of RH in First release. Zagreb, 26 May Vol. XLVII, No , Final Country Report Croatia 53

54 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.4: International migration of population from Croatia by age and sex, 2010 Age Immigrants Emigrants Total Men Women Total Men Women Total 52.76% 47.24% 49.07% 50.93% and over Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Migration of Population of RH in 2010, First release. Vol. XLVIII, No , 15 June 2011, Final Country Report Croatia 54

55 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.5: International migration, by country of previous residence and citizenship (2009: selected data) Country of previous residence/destination Immigrants Total Croatian citizens Emigrants Total Croatian Citizens Total 8,468 7,621 9,940 8,637 EU 1,739 1, Austria Germany Slovenia Former Yu* 5,756 5,308 6,199 6,021 BiH 4,874 4,561 1,666 1,659 Serbia ,458 4,293 Others Switzerland *Without Slovenia Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Migration of Population of RH in 2009, First Release, Vol. XLVII, No May 2010, Table 2.6: International migration, by country of previous residence and citizenship (2010; selected data) Country of previous residence/destination Immigrants Total Croatian citizens Emigrants Total Croatian Citizens Total 4,985 4,176 9,860 9,623 EU ,697 1,689 Austria Germany Slovenia Former Yu* 3,035 2,506 6,690 6,582 BiH 2,589 2,161 3,549 3,542 Serbia ,044 2,949 Others Switzerland *Without Slovenia Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Migration of Population of RH in 2010, First Release, Vol. XLVIII, No June 2011, Final Country Report Croatia 55

56 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.7: Foreigners - Croatian citizens in Germany in 2009 Total Men Women Croatian citizens in Germany by (according to central foreigners register) Came in 2009 (all year, according to local population registers) First entrance (according to central foreigners register) 221, , ,758 9,129 6,717 2,412 2,811 1, Source: Statistisches Bundesamt: Bevölkerung und Erwerbstätigkeit, Ausländische Bevölkerung, Ergebnisse des Ausländerzentralregisters. Fachserie 1, Reihe 2, 04. März 2010, Wiesbaden; 106 (henceforth SB) Source: Statistisches Bundesamt: Bevölkerung und Erwerbstätigkeit, Wanderungen. Fachserie 1, Reihe 1.2, 04. März 2010, Wiesbaden Table 2.8: Foreign population from Croatia in Germany, Total Men % of Women , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009; Final Country Report Croatia 56

57 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.9 Foreign population from Croatia in Germany in 2009, by age (in %) Total Men Women Age > more N 221, , ,758 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009; Table 2.10: Immigration from Croatia to Germany in 2009 by age* Total % Men % Women % under , , , and more Total 4, , , Average age Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009; * Data include also natural population change in Croatian population in Germany Final Country Report Croatia 57

58 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.11: Emigration from Germany to Croatia in 2009 by age Total % Men % Women % under , , , , , , and more Total 7, , , Average age upon returning Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009; Table 2.12: Emigrants from Germany to Croatia 2009 by duration of staying in Germany N % < 1 year , , > 1, Total 6, Average (duration of stay in Germany) 19.7 years Source: SB 2009; ; Statistisches Bundesamt: Bevölkerung und Erwerbstätigkeit, Ausländische Bevölkerung, Fachserie 1, Reihe 2, 04. März 2010, Wiesbaden Final Country Report Croatia 58

59 VT/2010/0001 Table 2.13: Foreign population from Croatia in Germany 2009, by some indicators In total population Men Women Age (average) Years of staying (average) Born in Germany (in %) Married (%) Single (%) Source: SB 2009; 47-57, 63 Table 2.14: Foreign population from Croatia in Germany in 2009 (by regulation of status) Type of regulation Total Status regulated according to law before ,787 - no limitations 113,051 - limitations 3,736 Status regulated according to law ,165 - limitations 24,338 - education international laws, humanitarian, political grounds 3,547 - family grounds 17,518 - prolongation 72,606 N.B.: By 2004 law, 74% of citizens in Germany have permanent permission for staying there. Source: SB 2009; Table 2.15: Foreign population from Croatia in Germany in 2009 by states (Länder) State N % Baden-Wüttemberg 72, Baavaria 50, Hesse 29, North Rhine-Westphalia 36, Berlin 9, Rhineland-Palatinate 7, Lowert Saxony 6, Hamburg 4, Others 4, Total 221, Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009; Final Country Report Croatia 59

60 VT/2010/0001 For Chapter 3: Table 3.1 Geographical distribution of Croatian scientists from different fields in 2004 Country Number of scientists, professors USA 466 Germany 143 Canada 84 Switzerland 75 France 50 UK 39 Austria 37 Australia 34 Argentina 16 Italy 16 Sweden 15 The Netherlands 12 Other 46 Total 1,033 Source: Pifat-Mrzljak, G. et al., 2004 Table 3.2 Brain Drain of Croatian scientists by discipline and titles, Field No % Natural Sciences ,7 PhDs ,7% Technical Sciences ,3 MSc ,6% Biomedicine ,3 Young ,2% Others ,5 Total Source: Pifat-Mrzljak et al. (2004); 37 Final Country Report Croatia 60

61 VT/2010/0001 Table 3.3 Remittances as % of GDP 4,00% 3,50% 3,00% 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00% Source: World Bank Remittances Handbook, 2011 Table 3.4 Pensions Paid Abroad, 2010 Type Number of beneficiaries Average Payment General Pension In countries of former SFRY Other countries Pensions of Police and Army Administration (VO, MUP) In countries of former SFRY Other countries Veterans Pensions In countries of former SFRY Other countries Bosnian Croat Army Pensions In countries of former SFRY Other countries Source: Rismondo (2011) December =7.39 HRK 85,944 1, HRK , HRK , HRK , HRK ,839 7, HRK , HRK ,431 2, HRK , HRK Final Country Report Croatia 61

62 VT/2010/0001 Table 3.5 Beneficiaries of Pensions Abroad, without ex-yugoslavia Country Number % of Total Austria 1, % Czech Republic % France % Germany 12, % Italy 1, % Netherlands % Sweden % Switzerland % Other Europe % Australia 5, % Canada 1, % USA % Other Countries % Total 24,404 Source: Rismondo (2011) Table 3.6 Beneficiaries in receipt of pensions from abroad (2009) Country No. of beneficiaries by type Old age Disability Family Other Total Austria 5,856 2,838 5,222-13,916 Germany 49,932 3,264 27, ,015 Switzerland 2,118 1, ,620 Bosnia and Herzegovina 75,575 33,135 44, ,880 Macedonia Slovenia 9,299 3,875 5,843-19,017 Serbia and Montenegro 2,737 1,170 1, ,575 Source: Croatian Pension and Insurance Institute (2011) Final Country Report Croatia 62

63 VT/2010/0001 For chapter 4: Table 4.1 Population in the Croatian islands, Date Population Index , , , , , Source: Ministry of Regional Development, 1997; 15 and Lajić and Mišetić, 2006; 37 TABLE 4.2 Net Migration Loss Counties and Croatia as a whole 2001 County Coefficient of youth Coefficient of ageing Ageing index Sisačko-moslovačka Karlovačka Ličko-senska Šibensko-kninska Croatia Source: Živić and Pokos (2005); 210. Table 4.3 Net Migration Loss Counties Activity Rates, 2001 County Overall Activity Rate Male Female Sisačko-moslovačka Karlovačka Ličko-senska Šibensko-kninska Croatia Source: Živić and Pokos (2005); Final Country Report Croatia 63

64 VT/2010/0001 Table 4.4 Registered Unemployment by County County City of Zagreb Zagrebačka Krapinsko-zagorska Varaždinska Koprivničko-križevačka Međimurska Karlovačka 24.6 (5) 22.0 (5) 23.0 (6) 24.8 (7) Bjelovarsko-bilogorska Virovitičko-podravska Požeško-slavonska Brodsko-posavska Sisačko-Moslovačka 26.2 (4) 24.8 (2) 26.8 (2) 29.9 (1) Osječko-baranjska Vukovarsko-srijemska Primorsko-Goransko Ličko-senjska 20.1 (9) 17.3 (10) 17.4 (10) 18.9 (11) Zadarska 18.1 (12) 15.9 (12) 16.2 (12) 17.8 (12) Šibensko-kninska 21.0 (8) 17.7 (9) 18.4 (9) 20.7 (9) Splitsko-dalmatinska Istarska Dubrovačko-neretvanska Source: HZZ (Croatian Employment Service) (2010); 5. Final Country Report Croatia 64

65 VT/2010/0001 Table 4.5 Regional GDP per capita PPP, rank and % change in 4 net migration loss counties % change CROATIA % City of Zagreb 15,343 (1) (1) Zagrebačka 5918 (18) 7360 (14) Krapinsko-zagorska 6864 (12) 7144 (16) Varaždinska 8267 (5) 8223 (6) Koprivničko-križevačka 8991 (4) 9142 (5) Međimurska 7231 (9) 7581 (13) Karlovačka 7375 (8) 7825 (11) 6.1% Bjelovarsko-bilogorska 6818 (13) 6691 (18) Virovitičko-podravska 6947 (11) 6923 (17) Požeško-slavonska 6427 (16) 6505 (19) Brodsko-posavska 5309 (20) 5345 (21) Sisačko-Moslovačka 7541 (7) 7200 (15) -4.5% Osječko-baranjska 6746 (14) 7875 (10) Vukovarsko-srijemska 5047 (21) 5756 (20) Primorsko-Goransko (3) (3) Ličko-senjska 6974 (10) 8039 (7) 15.3% Zadarska 6289 (17) 7980 (9) Šibensko-kninska 5549 (19) 7799 (12) 40.5% Splitsko-dalmatinska 6609 (15) 8003 (8) Istarska (2) (2) Dubrovačko-neretvanska 7858 (6) (4) Sources: Lovrinčević et al. (2004) and CBS (2008) Final Country Report Croatia 65

66 VT/2010/0001 Table 4.6 Access to Health Care proportion saying they experienced great difficulties by county and rank County Distance from dr Waiting for appointment Waiting in clinic Cost of travel to dr TOTAL (rank) Sisačko-moslovačka 23% 37% 33% 39% 132 (1) Karlovačka 20% 33% 27% 30% 110 (3) Ličko-senska 26% 20% 15% 26% 87 (7) Šibensko-kninska 18% 21% 17% 30% 86 (8) Croatia 13% 23% 18% 20% 79 Source: UNDP, 2007; 83. Table 4.7 Pupil:teacher ratios, Primary Schools, by county, School year 2009/10 Pupils Full-time Equivalent teachers Pupil:teacher ratio CROATIA 358,574 27, City of Zagreb 58,384 4, Zagrebačka 27,772 1, Krapinsko-zagorska 11, Varaždinska 15,255 1, Koprivničko-križevačka 10, Međimurska 10, Karlovačka 9, Bjelovarsko-bilogorska 10, Virovitičko-podravska Požeško-slavonska 7, Brodsko-posavska 15, Sisačko-Moslovačka 14, Osječko-baranjska 27,082 2, Vukovarsko-srijemska 17, Primorsko-Goransko 20, Ličko-senjska Zadarska 14, Šibensko-kninska 9, Splitsko-dalmatinska 40, Istarska 14, Dubrovačko-neretvanska 10, Source: Final Country Report Croatia 66

67 VT/2010/0001 Table 4.8 Health practitioners and general population Pop 2001 Health workers 2009 Pop:health worker ratio Doctors 2009 Pop:Dr ratio Private general practice Gpractice: Pop CROATIA 4,437, City of Zagreb 779, Zagrebačka 309, , Varaždinska 184, , Međimurska 118, Karlovačka 141, , , Požeško-slavonska 85, Brodsko-posavska 176, Krapinskozagorska Koprivničkokriževačka Bjelovarskobilogorska Virovitičkopodravska Sisačko- Moslovačka 185, Osječko-baranjska 330, Vukovarskosrijemska Primorsko- Goransko 204, , Ličko-senjska 53, Zadarska 162, Šibensko-kninska 112, , Istarska 206, Splitskodalmatinska Dubrovačkoneretvanska 122, Source: Croatian Institute of Public Health, Yearbook; 79 et seq Final Country Report Croatia 67

68 VT/2010/0001 For Chapter 5: Figure 5.1 Source: UNHCR Croatia Fact Sheet, January 2010, Table 5.2 UNHCR persons of concern, January 2010 Refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia/Kosovo* 1,133 Recognized refugees and persons under subsidiary protection 20 Asylum seekers (new applications during 2009) 147 Returnees 710 Internally displaced persons 2,285 Stateless (estimated) * 237 Others of concern ** 23,583 Total 28,115 *Includes 17 de jure stateless persons and 60 persons registered as unknown citizenship as reported by the Government and 160 persons, minority returnees, non-croatian citizens who are at risk of statelessness. In addition, it is estimated that approx. 1,000 Roma are at risk of statelessness. **Returnees, potential beneficiaries of Housing Care, Reconstruction and other legal or technical return assistance programmes who have not yet received final eligibility decision. Source: UNHCR Croatia Fact Sheet, January 2010, Table 5.3 Return of refugees by country of asylum, Final Country Report Croatia 68

69 VT/2010/0001 Country Total returns Serbia/ Montenegro 18,597 10,597 8,069 7,327 6,611 4,450 3,423 1, ,779 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,119 1,270 2,979 1, , ,395 Total 20,716 11,867 11,048 9,280 7,463 5,261 4,616 2,137 1, ,174 Source: UNHCR Croatia Fact Sheet, January 2010, Table 5.4 Refugees from Croatia in neighbouring countries Country Total Serbia 61,996 Bosnia and Herzegovina 6,941 Montenegro 2,148 Total 71,121 Source: UNHCR Croatia Fact Sheet, January 2010, Figure 5.5 Map Showing Major Roma Settlements in Croatia Source: Novak et al. (2011); 3. Final Country Report Croatia 69

70 VT/2010/0001 For Chapter 6 Table and figure 6:1 IPA Assistance to Croatia Component Transition Assistance and Institution Building 49,611,775 45,374,274 45,601,430 39,483,458 39,959,128 40,872,310 Cross-border Co-operation 9,688,225 14,725,726 15,898,570 15,601,136 15,869,158 16,142,542 Regional Development 45,050,000 47,600,000 49,700,000 56,800,000 58,200,000 59,348,000 Human Resources Development 11,377,000 12,700,000 14,200,000 15,700,000 16,000,000 16,040,000 Rural Development 25,500,000 25,600,000 25,800,000 26,000,000 26,500,000 27,268,000 TOTAL 141,227, ,000, ,200, ,584, ,528, ,670,852 Source: Final Country Report Croatia 70