PIE Plastics Information Europe SPAIN

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1 Seite 1 von 5 SPAIN Industry on solid course for growth / Both exports and imports of plastics on the rise / Plastics processing activities continue to increase / Automotive segment a key driver / Political impasse in Madrid slows economic dynamics Olé España. No other leading European industrial nation saw as strong economic gains last year as Spain. The latest estimates indicate that the country s gross domestic product rose by 3.2% in 2015 the highest figure since The prospects for 2016 are also good, with the European Commission forecasting a solid GDP rise of 2.8%. However, political uncertainties could put a brake on economic growth. The gains made by the Spanish economy are attributable to strong export activity, rising domestic consumption and high growth in gross fixed capital investment, says Germany Trade and Invest (gtai, Berlin; Provisional figures from the Economics Ministry in Madrid indicate that the value of Spanish exports rose by 4.3% in 2015 to EUR 250 bn. However, gtai points out that export activity is declining, as domestic demand from the country s 46.4m inhabitants begins to rise. This is illustrated by the fact that the number of exporting companies fell to just under 140,500 in 2015 after having reached 151,200 in 2013, the last year of the recession. Rising domestic demand is also attracting more imports. In 2015, Spain bought goods worth EUR 274 bn from abroad, which translated into a 3.7% rise over Higher demand for new cars was good news for German suppliers in particular. Total Spanish imports from Germany the country s largest supplier country rose by 11% to nearly EUR 36 bn, gtai says. Local plastics processing industry continues to make gains Looking only at plastics, imports rose at a higher rate than exports in The latest data published by chemical producers association Feique (Madrid/ Spain; shows that from January to August 2015 the export value of plastics increased by 1.9% year-on-year to EUR 3.67 bn, while imports climbed by 4.8% to EUR 2.99 bn. Higher demand for feedstocks also serves as an indicator of an increasingly lively local processing sector. The impression that the industry is flourishing is further underscored by the provisional estimates from the Centro Español de Plásticos (CEP, Barcelona / Spain; which expects the total output value of the country s plastics processing industry to come in at EUR bn for Although this would translate into a year-on-year rise of 4.9%, the figure remains below that of 2008, when output value stood at EUR bn. Looking ahead towards the period 2016 to 2018, the plastics processors that are part of the Confederacion de Empresarios Espanoles de Plásticos (ANAIP, Madrid / Spain; are targeting annual growth of 3%.

2 Seite 2 von 5 Not only did sales of the plastics processing segment rise in 2015, the number of industry employees also increased for the first time in several years. Even though the number of companies engaged with plastics actually fell by 3.8% to 2,976, the number of employees rose by 1.4% to 432,000. The renewed fall in the number of plastics enterprises is attributable to the advancing consolidation, which impacts small companies in particular. The number of firms with less than 20 employees declined by an above average rate of 5.9% to 2,230 last year, whereas the number of companies with at least 20 employees rose by 2.9% to 746. The extent of sector consolidation is illustrated by a look at the pre-crisis figures: In 2008, there were still 3,943 plastics processing companies in Spain with a total of 688,000 employees. The ongoing recovery in the various plastics application segments is supported by a range of factors. After seven meagre years, the construction industry in 2015 reported a rise in investment. Initial forecasts indicate a rise of 5.2% in 2015, and the forecast for this year is for another 4.9% increase. The main growth driver in this industry is the refurbishment, renovation and maintenance business and the high potential for energy efficiency measures. The housing market also appears to have recovered. However, there were a lower number of public tender for civil engineering projects, and companies active in this business have started to call for a public infrastructure program. The revival in the construction segment and its impact across the entire industry is also benefitting the E&E sector. Production output and sales in this segment rose by 3.8% and 6.1% respectively in 2015, gtai reports, adding that the gains for electronics were even higher, coming in at 12.5% in production output and 10.3% in revenues. The prospects for this year are also good, not least since the government stepped up its funding for energy efficiency at the end of Spain's automotive industry is already growing at a dynamic rate. The aim is to increase production in the country the EU s second-largest car manufacturer after Germany by 200,000 vehicles per year to around 3m units by Apart from that, investments amounting to several billion euro will go into production if VW makes good on its planned investment at the Seat plant in Martorell and the Volkswagen plant in Navarra. Last year, Spain s car exports increased by 24% to EUR 30.3 bn, while exports of vehicle components rose by 10% to EUR 12.3 bn. Domestic demand is also booming. The number of new car registrations climbed by 21% in 2015 twice the EU average of 9.3%. With the reward scheme for the scrapping of old vehicles prolonged to 2016, domestic demand

3 Seite 3 von 5 will likely remain lively this year, too. The strong development of the automotive and E&E segments will presumably also drive demand for engineering plastics. Although data for 2015 are not yet available, the figures published recently by CEP for 2014 are already pointing in this direction. Spain s post-recession engineering plastics consumption rose by 13.6% in 2014 to 544,000 t, with particularly high growth rates for PC, and somewhat lower increases for POM. Demand for standard thermoplastics, on the other hand, rose by "only" 4.6% to 3.26m t. There were significant increases for EPS (up 53%, albeit but from a low level), HDPE (up 13%) and PP (up 8.2%), while PVC demand saw a steep fall (down 25%).

4 Seite 4 von 5 In terms of the main end markets for plastics, the packaging sector remained the largest consumer in 2014, accounting for 46.5% of total demand (up slightly from 46% in 2013). Demand from the second-largest segment, construction, on the other hand, continued to decline, falling to 11% (2913: 12%). By contrast, both the automotive and E&E segments saw gains, rising to 9.5% (2013: 9%) and 6.2% (2013: 6%) respectively. All the other sectors combined accounted for 26.8% (2013: 27%). Political impasse threatens current economic drive On the whole, recent data clearly show that Spain's plastics industry and indeed its entire economy is on a solid growth path and well on the way to overcoming the recession. However, trouble is looming in the political scene. With no definite winner emerging from the December 2015 parliamentary elections, all efforts to form a government in Madrid have so far failed. If no viable majority emerges in parliament in the coming weeks, new elections will be held in June. Until the impasse is solved, Spain is being administered by a government headed by conservative prime minister Mariano Rajoy. The political impasse and the resultant inability to act are taking a toll on the economy, too. Financial experts warn that the political hiatus is hurting investor confidence a luxury that Spain cannot afford at a time when things are finally picking up again following years of crisis. Nowhere is this better illustrated than by the latest data from the labour market: Although employment figures have risen recently, 20.9% of the working population remained without a job in February Another major problem is the country s high level of indebtedness, which has reached 100% of GDP. Against this background, no one seriously expects Madrid to be able to meet its promise to the EU and limit its 2016 household deficit to 2.8%. Doing so would require the government to launch a series of unpopular saving plans worth EUR 20 bn. The Commission s reply was not long in coming the European authorities recently sent a reminder to Spain, warning of a risk that the targets would be breached. Due to Spain s repeated failure to meet fiscal targets, the Moody's rating agency in February downgraded the prospects for the Euro zone s fourth-largest economy from "positive" to "stable". The political uncertainty could also have a negative impact on forecasts for economic growth according to the large Spanish bank BBVA, the figure could drop to just 2.2%.

5 Seite 5 von 5 The power vacuum in Madrid continues to play into the hands of the secession-seeking Catalans. For the Spanish economy and its plastics industry in particular, a split from the country s north-eastern region would be a massive blow. The region, which has a population of around 7.5m, is home to about one third of the country's plastics and rubber processing activities. It also houses the two largest of the country's three crackers with capacities for 1.3m t/y of C2 (equal to 84% of total Spanish C2 capacity) as well as important downstream facilities for PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET and PA. Catalonia has already carried out a symbolic act of separation: The quintessentially Spanish sport of bullfighting has been banned in the region since The CEP is marketing its 100-page study "El sector des los plásticos: Estadística, situación y perspectivas, Edición 2015" (in Spanish) on the Spanish plastics industry as a hard copy for EUR 200 plus 21% VAT. Contact: cep@cep-plasticos.com PIE [ ] 2016 by Plastics Information Europe, Bad Homburg All rights reserved. Access und use is subject to our terms of use. Date of print: 31/03/2016 Ref: d11yd345ujxjdofokaboie55 KIVBHI URL:

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