Urban Demography. Nan Astone, PhD Johns Hopkins University

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2 Urban Demography Nan Astone, PhD Johns Hopkins University

3 Objectives of This Lecture Define main measures used by urban demographers Examine global trends Consider recent research by demographers concerned with urban health 3

4 Section A Definitions and Trends

5 Urban Population Is Growing Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200. 5

6 Urban or City Population Population of urban areas within countries Common metric for categorizing cities 10 million or more (megacities) 5 10 million 1 5 million 500,000 to 1 million Less than 500,000 6

7 City Size by Region and Year 7

8 Megacities over Time 1950 (2) 1. New York Newark 2. Tokyo 1975 (3) 1. Tokyo 2. New York Newark 3. Mexico City 8

9 Megacities over Time 2000 (18) 1. Tokyo 2. Mexico City 3. New York Newark 4. São Paulo 5. Mumbai 6. Shanghai 7. Calcutta 8. Delhi 9. Buenos Aires 10. LA Long Beach Santa Ana 11. Osaka 12. Jakarta 13. Rio de Janeiro 14. Cairo 15. Dhaka 16. Moscow 17. Karachi 18. Manila 2005 (20) 1. Tokyo 2. Mexico City 3. New York Newark 4. São Paulo 5. Mumbai 6. Delhi 7. Shanghai 8. Calcutta 9. Jakarta 10. Buenos Aires 11. Dhaka 12. LA Long Beach Santa Ana 13. Karachi 14. Rio de Janeiro 15. Osaka 16. Cairo 17. Lagos 18. Beijing 19. Manila 20. Moscow 9

10 Urbanization Characteristic of a nation or region Percent of a population (e.g., a country) that lives in urban areas 10

11 World Urbanization Percentage of the population living in urban areas, 2005 Map source: United Nations. 11

12 Urbanization by Region Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/

13 Urban Growth Characteristic of a city or of a number of cities aggregated together Growth rate of the urban population 13

14 Worldwide Urban Growth Average annual rate of change of the urban population, Map source: United Nations. 14

15 Urban Growth in the Six Biggest Cities (as of 2005) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/

16 Section B Health and the City

17 Recent Research Recent research by urban demographers interested in health NRC reading Cities Transformed Huge volume devoted to urban demography Two chapters on health 17

18 Is City Life Good for Your Health? Chapter 7: Mortality and Morbidity: Is City Life Good for Your Health? What is urban health? Are urban/rural health differentials a matter of kind (totally different health profiles) or degree (levels of cause-specific morbidity and mortality)? Are the determinants of health different for city dwellers than for rural dwellers, or are the levels of universal determinants of health simply different for urban and rural dwellers? 18

19 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 19

20 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 20

21 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 21

22 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 22

23 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 23

24 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 24

25 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 25

26 Unique Determinants of Urban Health Dependence on cash Informal social networks are weaker Higher levels of parental participation in the formal sector Higher intake of fat and sweets/lower levels of physical activity Sanitation Environmental toxins Limits on social mobility 26

27 Particular Issues Injuries Mental health Emerging chronic disease New infectious disease (HIV/AIDS) 27

28 The Urban Penalty In historical Europe, morbidity and mortality were much higher in cities, despite the fact that urban dwellers (as individuals) were richer Over time, the rural advantage eroded because Investments in infrastructure NGO action leading to political will Knowledge Income Contemporary LDCs did not have an urban penalty because of knowledge Question: Is an urban penalty emerging? 28

29 Urban Child Health Urban residence is associated with child survival, and city size does not matter Urban poor children have much lower survival than urban non-poor children, and sometimes have lower survival than rural children (still a minority) Less stunting in urban areas, and, generally, city size doesn t matter (except in Latin America) Wasting is less clear, although urban children generally fare better No clear and compelling evidence of urban penalty emerging, but area where much research is needed 29

30 Urban Child Health Urban residence is associated with child survival, and city size does not matter Urban poor children have much lower survival than urban non-poor children, and sometimes have lower survival than rural children (still a minority) Less stunting in urban areas, and, generally, city size doesn t matter (except in Latin America) Wasting is less clear, although urban children generally fare better No clear and compelling evidence of urban penalty emerging, but area where much research is needed 30

31 Section C Residential Segregation in Urban Areas

32 Objectives of This Lecture At the end of this lecture and the accompanying readings a student will be able to: Define residential segregation Identify the five usual measures of residential segregation Describe recent trends in residential segregation by ethnicity in the U.S. Identify areas of public health research where the concept of residential segregation might be useful 32

33 Residential Segregation Tendency for groups to cluster geographically in cities and metropolitan areas Ethnicity Social class 33

34 Originally Studied by Immigration Scholars For the first half of the twentieth century, immigrant groups were residentially segregated in the U.S. Major hypothesis: residential segregation of immigrants is in large part due to Concentration in particular occupations Poverty and low socioeconomic status Ability to participate in cultural organizations Discrimination 34

35 Process of Assimilation As immigrants and their children Shift cultural orientations Expand into different occupations Get richer Segregation will lesson substantially, but not completely disappear 35

36 How to Measure Residential Segregation Requires some sub-unit into which cities or metropolitan areas can be divided U.S. census tract 36

37 How to Measure Residential Segregation Five dimensions Evenness Exposure Clustering Concentration Centralization 37

38 Evenness The degree to which groups (e.g., ethnic groups) are evenly spread across the city How many people would have to move in order to make each census tract have the same distribution as the city as a whole? 38

39 Evenness in Selected Metropolitan Areas Evenness in selected metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity (European American comparison) 39

40 Exposure Inverse of the probability that a person of one ethnic group shares a census tract with a person of a particular other ethnic group 40

41 Exposure in Selected Metropolitan Areas Exposure in selected metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity (European American comparison) 41

42 Clustering The degree to which census tracts with a large percentage of a particular ethnic group are contiguous 42

43 Clustering in Selected Metropolitan Areas Clustering in selected metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity (European American comparison) 43

44 Centralization Closeness of the census tracts with a large percentage of a particular ethnic group to the central business district of the city 44

45 Centralization in Selected Metropolitan Areas Centralization in selected metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity (European American comparison) 45

46 Concentration The proportion of geographic space occupied by census tracts with a large percentage of a particular ethnic group 46

47 Concentration in Selected Metropolitan Areas Concentration in selected metropolitan areas by year and ethnicity (European American comparison) 47

48 Basic Trends African Americans down a little bit on every measure All others stable or up, somewhat different for different measures 48

49 Ethnic Differences Now 49

50 Can Measure Segregation by Social Class or Income Relatively little research on this, compared to ethnicity What studies there are show that social class segregation has increased a little over the last part of the 20th century In particular, has increased among ethnic minorities 50

51 Spatial Concentration of Poverty Combination of unrelenting ethnic segregation and slightly increasing social class segregation Neighborhoods in many American cities where a very large majority of the population is poor Neighborhood effects on health 51

52 Residential Segregation in Public Health Research Very prominent theme in recent public health research Very old models Only use evenness Think about a city that was completely even, which was 80 percent African American (that is, all tracts are also 80 percent African American and 20 percent non-african American) Now think about a city that is (overall) 50 percent African American and that is somewhat uneven Could the exposure measure of segregation be higher in the more segregated city than the less segregated city? 52