Hartlepool. Local Migration Profile. Quarter

Transcription

1 Hartlepool Local Migration Profile Quarter This document summarises the main migration trends and data that we can access for Hartlepool up to 30 th September 2011 You are welcome to share this document within your own organisation, however, please be aware that the data on asylum and refugee numbers are sensitive and should be not be shared publicly. Any reproduction of the data contained in this document must acknowledge the original source. See annexe for list of abbreviations. For further information please contact Kieron Bridges, Regional Policy and Information Officer at kieron.bridges@newcastle.gov.uk or on

2 Summary of Migration trends in Hartlepool Overall population change The local population was estimated at 91,304 people in 2009 (the mid year estimate ); an increase of 356 since At around 1% of the population, Hartlepool has a lower non-british population compared to the average 3.2% for the North East region. Similarly, the percentage born outside the UK 2% is lower than the regional average at 5% (See charts A and B). Chart A Chart B Population growth is affected by births, deaths and migration. In the past year, natural change (births and deaths) accounted for 72% of this growth, and net migration 28%. The steadily increasing fertility rate in Hartlepool (Chart C) is higher than the average across the North East. However, the proportion of births to mothers who were born outside the UK remains consistently below the regional average. In 2009 only 6 of all new births were to mothers born outside the UK compared to 10.32oss the North East (see chart D) 2

3 Chart C Chart D New international arrivals In 2010, between 175 and 320 new migrants who will stay more than a year arrived in Hartlepool ( long term migrants ); the formal estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the higher end of this range compared to the administrative source which actually counts new migrants. Flag 4 data measures (new) GP registrations to foreign nationals. It is probably the most comparable alternative source to the ONS estimates as GP registrations will capture all migrants (if they choose to register) and individuals are more likely to register if they are resident for more than 12 months. However, there are biases in the Flag 4 data due, in particular, to underregistration of young males which means that the comparison is not perfect. But a direct comparison of the pattern and trend evident from the two sources is a useful starting point when attempting to confirm the true scale of long-term migration to an area. (Chart E) The other administrative source on Chart E is for National Insurance Number (NINo) allocations to overseas nationals entering the UK which suggests the lower figure of 160. The NINo data only records migrants over the age of 16, who are planning to work or claim benefits and would therefore not take account of dependants. 3

4 Chart E While Net migration to Hartlepool was 190 in 2010, future net migration is expected to stabilise providing a slight overall loss as immigration decreases and emigration increases. This projection assumes no changes in policy or international conditions. (Chart G) Chart F Around 380 migrants visited Hartlepool for between one and 12 months (shortterm migrants) including tourists (this latest estimate is for 2007) The overall number of new migrant workers arriving in Hartlepool in 2009 was 130. This was a sharp rise from the 90 in 2009, but still below the peak of 200 in (Chart G). The top country of origin is Poland, followed by Latvia (Chart H). 4

5 Chart G Chart H The number of new workers arriving from the 12 EU accession countries 1 is higher than last year at 90, but remains and significantly lower than the peak of 200 in 2006 (Chart H) 1 Made up of A8 Countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia), A2 Countries (Romania and Bulgaria), Malta and Cyprus. 5

6 While the number of new migrant workers from EU accession countries has been very changeable during the past six years, there has been a fairly predictable flow of just under 50 workers from other countries arriving each year (in 2010 this was 40). (Chart H) Chart J shows the total number of A8 workers registered onto the Workers Registration Scheme and also highlights this downward trend. The total number of registrations received for 2010 was 20: considerably lower than the peak of 90 in Chart J Asylum numbers In Q there were 88 asylum seekers accommodated in Hartlepool representing just over 4% of the asylum population of the North East region. However, this is a 35% increase in the total number from Q The top country of origin is Nigeria, followed by Zimbabwe and Iran. There has been a steady increase in the number of asylum seekers being dispersed into Hartlepool, contradicting the trend being seen in the rest of the North East. This trend started when a Stockton-based private accommodation provider was awarded the Target Contract for asylum accommodation in February This provider already had a number of properties in the Hartlepool area and was able to use these properties to accommodate dispersed asylum seekers. Chart K shows this increase in supported asylum cases (which represent the main applicant) as well as supported asylum persons (which include all named dependents) in Hartlepool. For information, ASYS is the name of the UKBA database from which these figures are derived. 6

7 The reason that the number of accommodated persons is significantly higher then the number of cases reflects the fact that it is only families who are accommodated in Hartlepool by this provider. Chart K Refugees Data from the Refugee Integration and Employment Service indicates that there have been 10 people granted a positive granted "Refugee" status or "Humanitarian Protection" status since 1 October 2008 and whose asylum claim was dealt with under the New Asylum Model (i.e. those who lodged an asylum claim since March 2007). 7

8 ANNEXE Abbreviations A8 APS ASYS DWP EU GOR GP HESA IPS LGA MYE NINo NIRS ONS PRDS RIES RMP SNPP STM TFR TIM UKBA WRS Accession countries: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia Annual Population Survey Asylum Statistics (received from UKBA) Department for Works and Pensions European Union Government Office Regions General Practitioner Higher Education Statistics Agency International Passenger Survey Local Government Association Mid-year estimate (population) National Insurance Number National Insurance Recording System Office for National Statistics Patient Register Data Service Refugee Integration and Employment Service Regional Migration Partnership Sub-national Population Projections Short-term migration Total Fertility Rate Total International Migration United Kingdom Border Agency Workers Registration Scheme 8