Bayt.com Middle East Consumer Confidence Index. February 2016

Transcription

1 Bayt.com Middle East Consumer Confidence Index February 2016

2 Section 1 PROJECT BACKGROUND

3 Objectives To understand perceptions and attitudes of consumers in the Middle East regarding the economy of their countries, their personal financial and job situation, their likelihood to purchase and invest, and the job market in general.

4 Project Background Consumer confidence is a measure of the economic wellbeing of a country. It is a reflection of consumer satisfaction levels and expectations based on various factors in the economy, i.e. inflation, stock market performance, job opportunities, salary structures, unemployment, investment avenues and returns, business growth, state economic policies, infrastructure, cost of living, interest rates, exchange rates, etc. Such consumer satisfaction levels and expectations will have an effect on economic variables. For example, if consumers are positive about the economy and have disposable income levels that are perceived as sufficient, they will tend to spend more on consumer goods. This in turn will drive business dependent on consumer spending, thereby creating further economic growth. On the other hand, a pessimistic view of the economy would cause consumers to rein in their spending, creating a spending recession which could effectively cause business losses and economic downturn.

5 Project Background Similarly, if employable adults are optimistic about job prospects and opportunities, job security, have healthy salary expectations and are hopeful about their career growth and development, it will be reflected in their attitudes towards work and the economy as a whole, as well as their spending behaviors. Therefore, the following trends in consumer and employee expectations could help forecast economic variables. This information is useful for professionals, manufacturers/business people, recruitment consultants/agencies, economists, and the general public.

6 Section 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

7 Sample Definition Age and Gender: Adult males and females Aged 18+ years Nationalities: GCC Arabs, North Africans, Levant, Western Expats and Asians Country of Residence GCC: UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain Levant: Lebanon, Syria*, Jordan North Africa: Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia *Small sample size Data Collection All data was collected online. Fieldwork was done between January 27 th February 10 th, The total number of respondents achieved was 3,905.

8 Section 3 RESEARCH FINDINGS

9 Average of Past Indices: April 2007 October 2012 Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Lebanon Egypt Algeria Consumer Expectancy Index (CEI) Propensity to Consume (PCI) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Employee Confidence Index (ECI)

10 Base Period Values March 2013 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

11 Period Values September 2013 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

12 Period Values February 2014 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

13 Period Values August 2014 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

14 Period Values January 2015 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

15 Last Period Values July 2015 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

16 Current Period Values January 2016 Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: 3, Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario Employee Outlook Overall Consumer Confidence

17 Overall Indices Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Current Economic Scenario (CES) Expected Economic Scenario (EES) Employee Outlook (ECI) Overall Consumer Confidence (CCI)

18 Section 3a PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION

19 Summary Overall, approximately a fifth (18%) believe that their financial condition is better now than it was 6 months ago. A higher proportion of GCC residents (22%) believe that, as compared to respondents in Levant and North Africa (11% and 15%, respectively). This is mainly due to Qatar (28%) and UAE (25%). 4 in 10 expect their financial condition to improve in the next 6 months. This belief is higher in the GCC (46%) as compared to other MENA regions (Levant: 27%, North Africa: 36%) and especially in the UAE (51%), in Saudi Arabia (48%) and in Qatar (48%). Majority of respondents (74%) expect the cost of living to increase in the next 6 months. This sentiment is especially high in Bahrain and in Algeria (both at 85%). More than half (56%) believe that their savings have decreased in comparison to last year, while only 14% believe the opposite. This is higher among Levant residents (69%) as compared to GCC and North Africa residents (52% and 59% respectively). About a third of respondents plan to buy at least one vehicle for personal use in the next 12 months. Among those, 39% intend to get a new one, while 36% a used one. Approximately 1 in 4 respondents plan to invest in property in the next 12 months, the intention is lower among Levant residents (12%). Lebanon is at 13% and Jordan at 14%.

20 Personal Finance Evaluation of Current Scenario Q. Compared to 6 months ago, my or my family s current financial position is: Overall, approximately a fifth (18%) believe that their financial condition is better now than it was 6 months ago. A higher proportion of GCC residents (22%) believe that their financial condition is better now as compared to respondents in Levant and North Africa (11% and 15%, respectively). This is mainly due to Qatar (28%) and UAE (25%). 1 in 2 Jordan residents state that their financial condition is worse now as compared to 6 months ago. Base: Total (3,095), KSA (660), UAE (629), Kuwait (264), Qatar (161), Bahrain (164), Oman (168), Lebanon (175), Syria (24), Jordan (176), Egypt (585), Morocco (302), Algeria (486), Tunisia (111) All figures are % s (*)Small base

21 Personal Finance Expectations for the Future Q. In comparison to the current period, in the next 6 months I expect my or my family s financial position to: 4 in 10 expect their financial condition to improve in the next 6 months. This belief is higher in the GCC (46%) as compared to other MENA regions (Levant: 27%, North Africa: 36%) and especially in the UAE (51%), in Saudi Arabia (48%) and in Qatar (48%). Residents of Jordan and Bahrain seem somewhat more pessimistic about their future financial position, with approximately 1 in 4 expecting it to get worse. Base: Total (3,095), KSA (660), UAE (629), Kuwait (264), Qatar (161), Bahrain (164), Oman (168), Lebanon (175), Syria (24), Jordan (176), Egypt (585), Morocco (302), Algeria (486), Tunisia (111) All figures are % s (*)Small base

22 Cost of Living Q. In the next 6 months, I expect Majority of respondents (74%) expect the cost of living to increase in the next 6 months. A larger proportion of respondents in North Africa (80%) expect that, as compared to those living in the GCC (69%) and in Levant (72%) This sentiment is especially high in Bahrain and in Algeria (both at 85%). Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria(*) Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: 3, Cost of living to increase Cost of living to remain the same Cost of living to decrease Don t know can t say All figures are % s (*)Small base

23 Change in Savings Q. In comparison to last year, my savings have: More than half (56%) believe that their savings have decreased in comparison to last year, while only 14% believe the opposite. A higher proportion of Levant residents (69%) claim that their savings have decreased as compared to GCC and North Africa residents (52% and 59% respectively). A much higher percentage of Jordan residents (73%) believe that their savings have decreased. Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria(* ) Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: 3, Increased Remained the same Decreased Don t know/can t say All figures are % s (*)Small base

24 Investment in Vehicle Q. Do you plan to buy at least one vehicle for personal use in the next 12 months? Q. Which of the following types of vehicle would it be? About a third of respondents plan to buy at least one vehicle for personal use in the next 12 months. This intention is higher in the GCC (35% vs. 24% in Levant and 30% in North Africa) and especially in Saudi Arabia with approximately 4 in 10 stating that they are planning to get a vehicle in the next year. Among those planning to get a vehicle in the next 12 months, 39% intend to get a new one, while 36% a used one. Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrai n Oma n Lebano n Syria ( *) Jorda n Egyp t Morocc o Algeri a Tunisi a Base: 3, Yes No Don t know/can t Say Type of Vehicle Base(Plan to buy): 1, (*) 46 (*) 35 (*) 56 (*) 39 (*) 4 (*) 48 (*) (*) (*) New Used Combination of new and used Don't know/can't say All figures are % s (*)Small base

25 Investment in Property Q. Do you plan to invest in property within the next 12 months? Approximately 1 in 4 respondents plan to invest in property in the next 12 months. Respondents from Levant (76%) seem less likely to invest in property (Lebanon: 78%, Jordan: 76%) within the next year. Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria( *) Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: 3, Yes No Don t know/can t Say All figures are % s

26 Investment in Property Type of Property Q. What type of property are you planning to invest in? Q. Which of the following types of property would it be? Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait (*) Qatar (*) Bahrai n (*) Oman Lebanon (*) (*) Syria (*) Jorda n (*) Egypt Morocco (*) Algeria Tunisi a (*) Base (Plan to buy): Kind of Property Apartment Villa/ townhouse/ bungalow Commercial property (office/ shop etc.) Other Base (Plan to buy): Status of Property New Pre-owned Combination of new and preowned Don't know/can't say All figures are % s (*)Small base

27 Consumer Goods Q. Lastly, could you please tell us which of the following are you planning to invest in within the next 6 months? (Please tick all that apply) Total Saudi Arabi a UAE Kuwai t Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria(* ) Jordan Egyp Morocco Algeria Tunisi t a Base: 3, Tablet or Smartphone Furniture Desktop or Laptop LCD or Plasma Television Air Conditioner Washing Machine Refrigerator Cooking Range Digital Camera Vacuum Cleaner Clothes Dryer Home Theatre System Normal or Digital Camcorder Normal Color Television DVD or VCD Recorder or Player None of the above / Don t know All figures are % s (*)Small base

28 Section 3b COUNTRY S ECONOMIC SITUATION

29 Summary While 16% believe that their country s economy has improved relative to the past 6 months, 1 in 2 respondents think it has gotten worse. A higher proportion of respondents from Algeria (73%) and Tunisia (72%) believe that their country s economy has gotten worse. One third of respondents expect the economy in their country of residence to improve in the next 6 months, while another third expect the opposite. Those living in the GCC are more optimistic (40%) about their country s future economy as compared to those living in Levant (12%) and in North Africa (26%). Only 6% believe that the present business conditions are very good, while 17% think that the business conditions are good. GCC residents seem to be the most positive about the current business conditions (very good: 8%, good: 23%) in comparison to respondents from Levant (very good: 2%, good: 8%) and North Africa (very good: 3%, good: 10%). Overall, 44% of MENA residents expect the business conditions to get better within the next year. GCC residents and especially those living in UAE (60%) and in Qatar (59%), are more optimistic about the future business conditions in their country of residence (GCC: 51%, Levant 26%, North Africa: 34%).

30 Summary 38% believe that there are few jobs available across few industries, while 1 in 4 state that there are few jobs available across various industries. Generally respondents seem somewhat negative about the future availability of jobs in their country with 36% of them expecting the number of jobs available in the next 6 months to decrease. This belief is higher among Levant residents (47%) as compared to other MENA regions (GCC: 34%, North Africa: 36%).

31 Country s Economy Evaluation of Current Scenario Q. Compared to 6 months earlier, my country s economy has: While 16% believe that their country s economy has improved relative to the past 6 months, 1 in 2 respondents think it has gotten worse. Those from Levant are more negative about their country s economy, with 62% of them stating that it has receded (GCC: 42% and North Africa: 55%). A higher proportion of respondents from Algeria (73%) and Tunisia (72%) believe that their country s economy has gotten worse. Base: Total (3,095), KSA (660), UAE (629), Kuwait (264), Qatar (161), Bahrain (164), Oman (168), Lebanon (175), Syria (24), Jordan (176), Egypt (585), Morocco (302), Algeria (486), Tunisia (111) All figures are % s (*)Small base

32 Country s Economy Expectations for the Future Q. In comparison to the current period, in the next 6 months I expect my country s economy to: One third of respondents expect the economy in their country of residence to improve in the next 6 months, while another third expect the opposite. Those living in the GCC are more optimistic (40%) about their country s future economy as compared to those living in Levant (12%) and in North Africa (26%). A higher proportion of UAE (48%), Qatar (43%) and Saudi Arabia (41%) residents believe that their country's economy will improve. Base: Total (3,095), KSA (660), UAE (629), Kuwait (264), Qatar (161), Bahrain (164), Oman (168), Lebanon (175), Syria (24), Jordan (176), Egypt (585), Morocco (302), Algeria (486), Tunisia (111) All figures are % s (*)Small base

33 Present Business Conditions Q. Overall, presently business conditions in my country of residence are Only 6% believe that the present business conditions are very good, while 17% think that the business conditions are good. A higher proportion of respondents from GCC are positive about the current business conditions (very good: 8%, good: 23%) in comparison to respondents from Levant (very good: 2%, good: 8%) and North Africa (very good: 3%, good: 10%). Lebanon residents seem to be the least positive (bad: 41%, very bad: 17%). Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

34 Expectations of Future Business Conditions Q. In a year s time, I expect the business conditions to: Overall, 44% of MENA residents expect the business conditions to get better within the next year. GCC residents and especially those living in UAE (60%) and in Qatar (59%), are more optimistic about the future business conditions in their country of residence (GCC: 51%, Levant 26%, North Africa: 34%). Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

35 Current Availability of Jobs Q. Which of the following best describes your opinion on the current availability of jobs in your country of residence: 38% believe that there are few jobs available across few industries, while 1 in 4 state that there are few jobs available across various industries. Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria (*) Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: 3, There are few jobs available across few industries There are few jobs available across various industries There are plenty of jobs available but across a few industries only There are plenty of jobs available across various industries Don t know/ Can t say All figures are % s (*)Small base

36 Future Availability of Jobs Q. In the next 6 months, the number of jobs available in my country will. Generally respondents seem somewhat negative about the future availability of jobs in their country with 36% of them expecting the number of jobs available in the next 6 months to decrease. This belief is higher among Levant residents (47%) as compared to other MENA regions (GCC: 34%, North Africa: 36%). Half of Lebanon and Algeria residents believe that number of jobs available in their country of residence will decrease, percentage which is higher as compared to other countries. Total Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Lebanon Syria (*) Jordan Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Base: 3, Increase Remain the same Decrease Don t know/can t say All figures are % s (*)Small base

37 Section 3c CURRENT JOB

38 Summary One fourth believe that the number of employees in their company has increased in comparison to 6 months ago, while 38% state that it has decreased. This is higher among GCC residents (30%, vs. Levant: 14% and North Africa: 20%) and it is mainly due to Qatar (34%), Saudi Arabia (32%) and UAE (31%). 29% of respondents expect the number of employees in their company to increase in the next 6 months, while another 29% believe the opposite. GCC residents seem more positive (33%) in comparison to Levant (19%) and North Africa residents (25%). 42% claim that they are satisfied with the career growth opportunities in their current job, while about the same proportion state the opposite. 1 in every 2 Levant residents are dissatisfied with their career growth opportunities, percentage which is higher as compared to GCC (36%) and North Africa (43%) residents. Close to half of employed respondents are dissatisfied with their current compensation (49%). Dissatisfaction levels tend to be higher among residents of Levant (64% vs. 43% in the GCC and 55% in North Africa). 2 in every 5 respondents are dissatisfied with the non-monetary benefits they receive at their current job, while 43% claim to be satisfied in this aspect. Higher satisfaction levels are observed in the GCC (46% vs. 34% in Levant and 39% in North Africa) and especially in Saudi (57%) and in Oman (52%). 40% are satisfied with the job security in their current organization, while another 40% claim to be dissatisfied.

39 Change in Number of Employees Q. In comparison to 6 months ago, the number of employees in the organization where I work has: One fourth believe that the number of employees in their company has increased in comparison to 6 months ago, while 38% state that it has decreased. A higher proportion of GCC residents (30%) claim that this number has increased as compared to Levant (14%) and North Africa (20%). This is mainly due to Qatar (34%), Saudi Arabia (32%) and UAE (31%). Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

40 Expected Change in Number of Employees Q. In the next 6 months, I expect the number of employees in my organization to: 29% of respondents expect the number of employees in their company to increase in the next 6 months, while another 29% believe the opposite. GCC residents seem more positive (33%) in comparison to Levant (19%) and North Africa residents (25%). Those living in the UAE (38%) are the most positive. Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

41 Satisfaction Levels: Career Growth Opportunities Q. On an overall level, how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? 42% claim that they are satisfied with the career growth opportunities in their current job, while about the same proportion state the opposite. 1 in every 2 Levant residents are dissatisfied with their career growth opportunities, percentage which is higher as compared to GCC (36%) and North Africa (43%) residents. Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

42 Satisfaction Levels: Current Compensation (Salary & Allowances) Q. On an overall level, how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? Close to half of employed respondents are dissatisfied with their current compensation (49%). Dissatisfaction levels tend to be higher among residents of Levant (64% vs. 43% in the GCC and 55% in North Africa). Respondents in Jordan (65%) and in Lebanon (62%) are the most unhappy about the compensation given in their current jobs. Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

43 Satisfaction Levels: Non-monetary Benefits Q. On an overall level, how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? 2 in every 5 respondents are dissatisfied with the non-monetary benefits they receive at their current job, while 43% claim to be satisfied in this aspect. Higher satisfaction levels in the GCC (46% vs. 34% in Levant and 39% in North Africa) and especially in Saudi (57%) and in Oman (52%). Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

44 Satisfaction Levels: Job Security Q. On an overall level, how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? 40% are satisfied with the job security in their current organization, while another 40% claim to be dissatisfied. Satisfaction with job security is somewhat lower in Levant. Base: Those employed (2,692), KSA (519), UAE (504), Kuwait (230), Qatar (146), Bahrain (126), Oman (122), Lebanon (127), Syria (18), Jordan (113), Egypt (392), Morocco (103), Algeria (248), Tunisia (44) All figures are % s (*)Small base

45 Section 4 DEMOGRAPHICS

46 Respondent Profile 1/4 Personal Base: Total (3,905) All figures are % s

47 Respondent Profile 2/4 Personal Base: Total (3,905) Base: Those Married/Divorced/Separated/ Widowed (2 All figures are % s

48 Respondent Profile 3/4 Professional Base: Total (3,905) Base: Those employed (2, All figures are % s

49 Respondent Profile 4/4 Professional Base: Those employed (2,692) All figures are % s

50 Thank You