INTERNATIONAL AND INTERNAL MIGRATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTER-GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS AND SERVICE DELIVERY REPORT WITH BIBLIOGRAPHY

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL AND INTERNAL MIGRATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTER-GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS AND SERVICE DELIVERY PROF. JONATHAN CRUSH REPORT WITH BIBLIOGRAPHY

2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Dimensions of International Migration to South Africa Legal Immigration for Permanent Residence Legal Migration for Temporary Residence Contract Migration Forced Migration Education Migration Irregular Migration Emigration Inter-Provincial Migration Within South Africa Definition of Internal Migration Data Sources Volume of Inter-Provincial Migration Race and Inter-Provincial Migration Age and Inter-Provincial Migration Gender and Inter-Provincial Migration Marital Status and Inter-Provincial Migration Education and Inter-Provincial Migration Spatial Patterns of Inter-Provincial Migration Employment Status and Inter-provincial Migration Inter-Provincial Migration Trends Volume and Direction Net Inter-Provincial Migration Inter-Provincial Migration and Gender Labour Migration Volume of Inter-Provincial Labour Migration Labour Migration and Race Labour Migration and Gender Labour Migration and Marital Status Labour Migration and Education Labour Migration and Employment Inter-Provincial Patterns of Labour Migration Appendix A List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Global Migration Stock of International Migrants Table 2: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, Table 3: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, Table 4: Immigration to South Africa, Table 5: Work Permits Issued and Renewed, Table 6: Migrant Labour on South African Mines, Table 7: Refugee Applications/Approvals in South Africa by Country of Origin, Table 8: International Students at South African Public Universities, Table 9: International Students attending South African Universities and Colleges Table 10: Total Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Coutries Data Table 11: Professional Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Countries Data

3 Table 12: Measures of Total Inter-Provincial Migration Table 13: Total inter-provincial Migration by Population Group, Table 14: Age Distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, Table 15: Age and Sex distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, Table 16: Spatial Organization of Migrant Moves, Table 17: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest In-Migration of Population Between 2001 and Table 18: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest Out-Migration of Population Between 2001 and Table 19: Migrant Origins by Province, Table 20: Migrant Destinations by Province, Table 21a: Inter-Provincial Migration in South Africa ( ) Table 21b: Inter-Provincial Migration in South Africa ( ) Table 21c: Estimated Inter-Provincial Migration ( ) Table 22: Total Inter-Provincial Migration, Table 23: Ten Major Migration Streams Table 24: Provincial Inter-Provincial Migration Rates, Table 25: Net Inter-Provincial Migration, Table 26: Inter-Provincial Migration by Gender and Province Table 27: Inter-Provincial Migration by Province of Origin and Destination and Gender, Table 28: Labour Migration by Household, Table 29: Inter-Provincial Migration of Migrant Workers by Racial Group, Table 30: Migrant Workers by Gender, Table 31: Migrant Workers by Province of Origin and Gender, Table 32: Levels of Education of Migrant Workers, Table 33: Migrant Labour in South Africa by Province of Employment, Table 34: Net Inter-Provincial Labour Migration Table 35: Inter-Provincial Flows of Migrant Workers, Figure 1: Immigration to South Africa, Figure 2: South African Emigration to Five Most Important Destination Countries, Figure 3: Population Pyramid of Inter-Provincial Migration, Figure 4: Population Pyramid of South African Population, Figure 5: Marital status of Migrants, Figure 6: Marital Status of Non-Migrants, Figure 7: Major Migrant Destination Muncipalities, Figure 8: Major Migrant Origin Muncipalities, Figure 9: Employment Status of Female Migrants, Figure 10: Employment Status of Male Migrants, Figure 11: Net Migration by Province, Figure 12: Marital Status of Migrant Workers by Province of Origin (%) Figure 13: Employment Sectors of Migrant Workers,

4 1. Introduction Globally, migration is at an all-time high, with 190 million people now living outside their country of birth (up from 75 million in 1960) (Table 1). Internal migration within countries is even more voluminous (Deshingkar and Grimm 2005; GCIM 2005). For example, in China alone, 120 million people migrated internally in In Vietnam, 4.3 million people migrated internally between , compared to only 300,000 who left the country. Closer to home, in Gauteng Province, the total population in 2001 was 8.8 million. Of these, 3.6 million were internal migrants (born outside the province) and 473,000 were international migrants (born outside the country). Both forms of migration (internal and international) are reshaping national, regional and local economies throughout Africa and the world. Population redistribution, both within and between countries, has considerable implications for economic growth and investment, service consumption and delivery, and government expenditures. In federal systems of governance, migration looms increasingly large in budget allocations and inter-governmental transfers. Countries with federal systems, such as Canada, Australia and South Africa, need to devise measures to configure migration into their calculations (Bird and Smart 2002; Bucovetsky 2003). In the South African case, migration is not only increasing rapidly but it has proven to be very difficult to accurately measure with existing methodologies and instruments. Table 1: Global Migration Stock of International Migrants Millions World Developed countries Developing countries Source: UNDP, Trends in Total Migrant Stock: The 2005 Revision (Online Database) This report for the South African Financial and Fiscal Commission in South Africa will provide a detailed picture of migration trends and dynamics using existing data and information sources. The report will (a) examine the dimensions and trends in internal and international migration to South Africa since 1990; (b) construct a profile of the migrant population in South Africa (internal and international) at the present time; (c) assess the spatial dimensions of internal and international migration in terms of where migrants are moving to (destinations of international migrants, inter-provincial movements); (d) assess the implications of migration for service delivery; and (e) identify which services are likely to be most affected by shirts in population as a result of migration. The overall aim is to assess the scope and scale of internal and cross-border migration and to assess the implications of migration for the activities and brief of the Financial and Fiscal Commission. 2.0 DIMENSIONS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TO SOUTH AFRICA The international migrant population of South Africa has increased since 1990 but by how much? The 1996 Census showed a migrant stock (defined by the UN as the number of foreign-born people recorded in the national census) of 813,764 (Table 2) and the 2001 Census a stock of 1,025,072 (Table 3), an increase of 211,308 in the five year period. The bulk of the increase (76%) was made up of migrants from other SADC countries. The numbers from the rest of Africa nearly doubled from 23,000 to 42,000 while the number from Europe rose by a mere 11,000. Unfortunately, this data does not show the absolute number of new migrants for two reasons: (a) census inaccuracies of unknown magnitude; and (b) the fact that the increase is a net figure (i.e. 4

5 balance between immigration and emigration rather than showing the absolute number of immigrants). Table 2: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, 1996 SADC Countries Rest of Africa Europe Asia North America Central & South America Australia & New Zealand Province M F M F M F M F M F M F M F Total Eastern Cape 4,285 5,041 1,542 1,217 6,022 5,753 1, ,989 Free State 55,857 13, ,163 1, ,855 Gauteng 155,736 55,842 5,834 3,829 52,237 48,756 7,377 6,388 1,237 1,238 1,738 1, ,520 KZN 16,902 15,379 1,712 1,630 20,564 20,831 2,223 2, , ,172 Limpopo 32,963 27, ,903 Mpumalanga 35,134 20, ,861 2, ,016 N. Cape 4,643 4, ,503 North West 40,740 12, ,676 1, ,067 Western Cape Total from region Total from region (males and females) 12,509 12,683 1,993 1,596 24,120 23,968 2,191 1, ,719 35, , ,210 9, , ,195 15,277 13,280 2,766 2,921 4,352 4,351 1,901 1, ,764 Source: SSA 1996 Census Data 526,648 23, ,204 28,577 5,687 8,703 3, ,764 The 2001 international migrant stock of South Africa included 687,678 migrants from other SADC countries, 41,817 from the rest of Africa, 228,318 from Europe (a legacy of apartheid-era immigration) and 40,889 from Asia. Although these numbers may be an undercount, and do not distinguish between those legally and illegally in the country, they are the best, and most recent, approximation of the migrant stock of the country. They also represent the accumulation of many decades of immigration to the country. For example, the bulk of the foreign-born population from Europe entered the country during the apartheid era. As in other countries, migrants tend to congregate in certain areas. As Table 2 shows, nearly 50% of South Africa s migrant stock (473,000 out of 1.02 million) is in Gauteng with the Western Cape the next most important destination (at 109,000). Migration from SADC and the rest of Africa is heavily male-dominated. Sixty three percent of the 2001 SADC-born migrant stock and 66% of the rest of Africa-born migrant stock was male. Asian immigrants were 58% male. The gender division of European, North American, Central and Southern American and Australasian immigrants was very similar. 5

6 Table 3: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, 2001 SADC Countries Rest of Africa Europe Asia North America Central & South America Australia & New Zealand Province M F M F M F M F M F M F M F Total Eastern Cape 7,359 8,066 2,242 1,284 5,996 5,952 1,392 1, ,840 Free State 25,125 18,299 1, ,676 1, ,928 Gauteng 20, ,442 14,522 7,117 58,092 55,359 11,569 8,870 2,076 2,079 2,259 2,967 1, ,073 KZN 24,324 20,368 7,117 2,089 18,293 18,928 2,837 2, ,764 Limpopo 40,194 33,390 2, , , ,840 Mpumalanga 48, , ,503 2, ,693 N. Cape 5,274 5, ,317 North West 58,484 21, ,245 1,715 1, ,707 Western Cape Total from region Total from region (males and females) 20,153 18,645 4,305 2,296 25,211 25,651 3,418 2,541 1,141 1,252 1,545 1, , , ,246 27,650 14, , ,714 23,562 17,327 4,474 4,675 6,456 6,334 2,192 2,239 1,025,072 Source: SSA 2001 Census Data 687,678 41, ,318 40,889 9,149 12,790 4,431 1,025,072 Six major channels of international migration to South Africa can be identified (this excludes temporary migrants such as visitors, tourists and traders). Three of these channels have been in decline since 1994 (legal immigration, legal temporary residence, contract migration), the other three have shown a marked increase (forced migration, education migration and irregular migration). In other words, with the exception of education migration, the migration streams over which the state has a greater degree of control have been in decline, partly as a result of policies designed to achieve this outcome. The streams over which the state has less control (irregular and forced migration) have dramatically increased. On balance, the declining streams have been outweighed by the increasing streams, leading to the net gain in the number of foreign citizens living in South Africa. A seventh stream of migration consists of those who have emigrated from the country, temporarily or permanently. Emigration must also be configured into this analysis since the emigrant no longer utilizes public services. However, few entirely cut their ties with the country, Many continue to own property, to pay taxes and to remit to relatives still in the country. 2.1 Legal Immigration for Permanent Residence During the apartheid era, the National Party government used immigration policy as a tool to boost the white population of the country by recruiting immigrants from Europe (Peberdy 1999). As Figure 1 shows, the success of this policy varied over time. White immigration peaked during periods of greatest political oppression of the majority black population and fell during periods of heightened opposition to the system. 6

7 Figure 1: Immigration to South Africa, After 1990, legal immigration for purposes of permanent residence declined considerably (Table 4). The reasons have been attributed to a restrictionist immigration policy pursued under then Minister of Home Affairs, Dr Buthelezi (Crush and Dobson 2007). However, since 2002, the numbers have begun to increase again under the new Immigration Act. The impact of JIPSA, which focus on priority skills acquisition from abroad, could further accelerate the numbers of new immigrants. Table 4: Immigration to South Africa, Year Immigrants African Immigrants % African ,499 1, ,379 2, ,686 1, ,824 1, ,220 1, ,221 1, ,608 1, ,271 1, ,711 1,

8 1999 3,367 1, , ,030 1, ,176 3, ,578 5, ,159 4, Total 110,185 30, Source: Department of Home Affairs 2.2 Legal Migration for Temporary Residence Temporary residence in South Africa for purposes of employment increased in the early 1990s and then began to fall, as the government pursued a policy of favouring South Africans in the labour market (Table 5). The peak year for new work permits and renewals was 1996 (at 52,000). By 200, the number of work permits and renewals had declined to 15,000. Again, this is likely to change with the implementation of the new Immigration Act and JIPSA. Table 5: Work Permits Issued and Renewed, Year New Work Permits Renewals Total ,657 30,915 38, ,117 32,763 36, ,581 33,318 38, ,741 30,810 36, ,714 29,352 38, ,053 32,838 43, ,498 33,206 52, ,361 17,129 28, ,828 11,207 22, ,163 10,136 23, ,643 9,191 15, ,430* Total 104, , ,650 Source: DHA Annual Reports * The figure for 2001 is based on new work permits and renewals issued abroad. Figures for new permits issued and renewals obtained inside SA are not available 2.3 Contract Migration The South African mining industry is the main employer of contract miners from outside the country. However, the numbers have been in decline in recent years as a result of downsizing 8

9 and retrenchments. In 1990, the mines employed 173,000 non-south African migrants from four neighbouring countries (Table 6). By 2004, this number had fallen to 110,000. Table 6: Migrant Labour on South African Mines, Year South Africa Botswana Lesotho Mozambique Swaziland B/L/M/S Total ,338 14,497 98,788 43,951 16, , , ,961 11,979 93,072 46,102 17, , , ,177 12,000 92,727 49,022 16, , , ,158 11,827 87,326 44,255 15, , , ,876 10,939 87,248 49,250 15, , , ,038 9,525 87,098 53,321 14, , , ,762 9,608 80,485 54,891 14, , , ,326 8,552 71,415 52,520 11, , , ,483 7,229 56,132 49,507 9, , , ,923 5,376 44,958 42,002 6,308 98, , ,146 5,373 50,472 44,245 8, , , ,260 4,763 49,477 45,893 7, , , ,824 4,227 54,154 51,355 8, , , ,438 4,205 54,478 53,828 7, , , ,146 3,924 48,962 48,918 7, , ,548 Source: TEBA 2.4 Forced Migration The civil war in Mozambique forced over 300,000 refugees to settle in South Africa in the 1980s. Many of these had their status in the country regularized between 1999 and Since 1994, however, the country has had growing numbers of asylum seekers crossing its borders. Between 1994 and 2004, a total of 158,000 asylum claims were made in South Africa from a wide variety of African and Asian countries (Table 7). However, in 2004, only 27,000 (or less than 20%) of these claims had been accepted. Refugees from only six African countries have been accepted in any number (DRC, Angola, Somalia, Burundi, Congo-Brazzaville and Rwanda). Most asylumseekers from other countries have been automatically turned down (Handmaker 2002). There is noinformation on what happens to failed refugee claimants or where in the country successful applicants are living. 9

10 Table 7: Refugee Applications/Approvals in South Africa by Country of Origin, Country Africa Asia Applications Approvals No. % No. % DRC 24, , Angola 12, , Somalia 14, , Nigeria 12, Kenya 10, Zimbabwe 6, Ethiopia 6, Tanzania 4, Senegal 4, Burundi 4, , Congo-Brazzaville 3, , Malawi 2, Rwanda 2, , Ghana 2, Cameroon 2, Ivory Coast 1, Pakistan 12, India 10, Bangladesh 4, China 2, Bulgaria 1, Others 10, Total 157, , Source: DHA 2.5 Education Migration The number of international student migrants in South Africa has increased since 1994 as many training institutions have a positive attitude to allocating places to higher fee-paying international students (Kishun 2006). In the case of SADC students, the SADC Education Protocol has made it much easier for students from other SADC countries to attend South African institutions of higher learning (Table 8). The total number of international students registered at South African universities was almost 50,000 in ,703 in The majority (nearly 70%) are from SADC countries. Table 8: International Students at South African Public Universities, 2006 Region Number % 10

11 SADC 33, Rest of Africa 8, Rest of the World 7, Totals 49, Source: Department of Education A provincial breakdown shows that although international students are present in all provinces, over half (54%) are at Gauteng institutions (Table 9). Another 17% study in the Western Cape. In other words over two-thirds of international students live and study in only two provinces. Table 9: International Students attending South African Universities and Colleges Province of Study SADC Rest of Africa Other Total % Eastern Cape 3, , Free State 164 1, , Gauteng 18,811 4,451 3,633 26, Kwa-Zulu Natal 2, , Limpopo North West 3, , Western Cape 5, ,302 8, Total 33,327 8,592 7,705 49, There is considerable anecdotal evidence that schoolchildren from countries surrounding South Africa (particularly Swaziland, Lesotho and more recently Zimbabwe) cross the border and enroll in South African schools. There are also reports that some South African children in border areas cross into Lesotho to go to school. The extent of this phenomenon is unknown although the DHA has attempted to make it more difficult in recent years for non-south African children to attend South African schools without proper documentation. 2.6 Irregular Migration The migrant stream that attracts most attention is undocumented, illegal or irregular migration. Clandestine border crossing in Southern Africa is nothing new although the numbers have probably never been as high as they are at present. While the volume has undoubtedly increased in the last two decades, its extent is often exaggerated by the media. Finally, enforcement tends to focus on identifying and deporting violators rather than prosecuting employers (so-called employer sanctions). South Africa has deported over one million people since Significantly, the vast majority of deportees (upwards of 80%) are sent home to only two countries: Mozambique and Zimbabwe. There has been a vigorous debate in South Africa about the numbers of irregular migrants in the country (Crush and Williams 2003). Estimates of the numbers grew from the 1-2 million range in the early 1990s to 8-10 million in the late 1990s. Recent newspaper reports claim there are 3 million Zimbabweans in South Africa, figures without basis in fact. Popular and official estimates contrast sharply with census data and those of organizations such as SAMP who put the number 11

12 in the ,000 range in the.late 1990s. Whatever its size, the irregular population is a floating one since many are temporary migrants and go home regularly. It also decreased by over 250,000 as a result of immigration amnesties between 1996 and 2000 (Crush and Williams 1999). Methods devised for measuring irregular migration to South Africa are extremely flawed and lead to highly dubious statistics. While some have doubted the value of trying to count the uncountable, irregular migrants do consume resources and use services (even as many also contribute economically to the country). Whether these migrants are entitled to the services they access is a point of constitutional debate. From the perspective of the FFC, it would be useful to get a better sense of the range of numbers and the provincial distribution of irregular migrants. 2.7 Emigration South Africa is experiencing considerable emigration at the present time (McDonald and Crush 2002). This is sometimes called the brain drain to reflect the fact that many emigrants are skilled people who leave with their training and skills. One of the common criticisms of the brain drain is that it represents a lost investment for South Africa. Government invests heavily in the training of skills and the trainees subsequently leave, in effect subsidizing the country of destination (usually advanced industrial countries). While the term brain drain is appropriate for those who take skills and qualifications with them, it is not an appropriate term to describe all emigration. Many skilled emigrants leave as family units, taking with them spouses and dependents. Official statistics on emigration are based on self-declaration. There is considerable evidence that not all emigrants declare their intentions on departure or, alternatively, leave for another reason and later decide to stay away permanently. This hypothesis has been tested by comparing South African data on emigration with data on immigration of South Africans to five major countries of destination (Stern and Szalontai 2006). As Table 10 shows, SSA figures show that 130,965 people emigrated to Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA between 1989 and However, data from those countries show that a total of 368,829 people emigrated from South Africa during that same time period. In other words, nearly three times as many people emigrated from South Africa as official South African statistics show. In every case, there is significant undercounting. However, the undercounting is worst in the UK case: 40,408 versus 219,856. The numbers emigrating from South Africa have increased every year since 1990 (Figure 2) Professional emigration from South Africa over the same time period is calculated by SSA to have involved 29,142 people (Table 11). Again, there is undercounting with 80,831 professionals from South Africa recorded by the same five destination countries. To re-emphasize the earlier point about the brain drain, for every professional who lands as an emigrant in these five countries, an additional 4.6 people also arrive (368,829 versus 80,831). Research by the Southern African Migration Project indicates that emigration potential remains high both amongst established professionals and recent graduates (Mattes and Mniki 2005; Crush, Pendleton and Tevera 2006; Pendleton, Crush and Lefko-Everett 2007). 12

13 Figure 2: South African Emigration to Five Most Important Destination Countries,

14 Table 10: Total Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Coutries Data Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States StatsSA AUS StatsSA CAN StatsSA NZ StatsSA UK StatsSA USA Five Country StatsSA total Five country recipient total All countries StatsSA total Table 11: Professional Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Countries Data Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States StatsSA AUS StatsSA CAN StatsSA NZ StatsSA UK StatsSA USA Five Country StatsSA total Five country recipient total All countries StatsSA total

15 15

16 3.0 INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRATION WITHIN SOUTH AFRICA 3.1 Definition of Internal Migration Internal migration is usually defined as a temporary or permanent change of primary place of residence within the boundaries of a nation-state. Opinion differs as to how long a person should have relocated for before they are considered to have migrated. People who make short-term movements (one time or regular) are usually not seen as migrants. This excludes categories such as visitors, tourists, shoppers, traders, commuters etc. An additional complication in the African case is that many people migrate for work from their usual place of residence and live temporarily somewhere else, returning home at regular intervals but cumulatively staying away from home for what may amount to many years. This form of circular migration is extremely common in South Africa. In this paper, this phenomenon is designated as labour migration and the individuals involved are labeled migrant workers. In the South African context, migrants move both within and between the nine provinces. For the purposes of this report, it is inter-provincial rather than intra-provincial migration that is the primary focus of interest. In other words, we are interested in those internal migrants who have temporarily or permanently changed their primary province of residence in a defined time period. We are also interested in migrant workers who are working or looking for work in a province other than their usual place of residence since they do ruse services while living in another province. 3.2 Data Sources Internal migration within South Africa was profoundly affected by the ending of influx controls in the late 1980s and the freedom of movement guaranteed by the 1994 Constitution. At the same time, South Africa has been undergoing an accelerating process of urbanization common to many other developing countries, and for many of the same reasons. The result is that the South African population as a whole is extremely mobile and many South Africans have changed their principal place of residence in the last decade. In addition, what sets South African migration (and African migration generally) apart is its circulatory character. In other words, there are many people who cross inter-provincial boundaries for work but maintain close links with their household in another province. This makes the measurement and understanding of both types of migration movement particularly complex and challenging (Simkins 2006). Two major data sets are used here to examine the volume and dimensions of inter-provincial migration and labour migration within South Africa: (a) Census Data for 1996 and 2001: The primary source of data for measuring internal migration is the Census. Unfortunately, South Africa s last Census was in 2001 and its next will not be until Census data can be used to make projections and estimates for the period since 2001, but unfortunately, the most accurate and comprehensive picture of internal migration available to us is now 6 years old. To gain a picture of the situation at the present time is therefore extremely challenging, although SSA has made some useful general projections about migration movements up to More detailed analysis of data from the 2001 Census of South Africa s migrants for the period is still useful since it provides an important picture of the character of post-apartheid internal migration in terms of variables such as age, gender, marital status, education, occupation and so on. Data for internal migration can be derived in two ways using the Census. First, migrants can be defined as individuals who no longer live in their place (province) of birth. Second, they can be defined as those who moved their province of residence after the previous Census. In the 2001 Census, individuals were explicitly asked whether they were still living in the same place as in 1996 and, if not, when they moved. In cases

17 where individuals moved more than once, information pertaining to the last move only was recorded. From a policymaking perspective, recent migrants (those who have moved in the last five years) may be of greater interest than the group of individuals who merely no longer live where they were born (Collinson and Kok 2006). Both of these methods have problems. Defining migrants by province of birth means that there are no time limits i.e. the data set could include people who migrated in 1920 and Thus, analyses of migration flows based on this data include a century of cumulative migration. Defining migrants in terms of the last move between 1996 and 2001 misses migrants who: (a) had moved from one province to another and then moved again within the new province between 1996 and 2001 (counting them only as intraprovincial migrants), (b) had moved to another province after 1996 but then returned to their home province before 2001 and (c) were born between the two censuses (i.e. the data set does not include migrants aged 0-4). The Census is not particularly good at measuring circular labour migration since it does not ask specific questions about reason for migration and periodicity of migration. However, it is quite possible that the Census does include labour migrants, depending on how those individuals interpret question about place of residence. For example, many migrant workers are known to have two homes, one where they work and one in a rural area in another province. Labour migrants would almost certainly be included in any analysis of migration based on place of birth data. However, even here, migrants might well be missed. For example, it is quite possible that a person from Limpopo province was recorded in Gauteng in 1996 and back in Limpopo in Even more problematically, he or she could have been recorded as a resident of Limpopo in 1992, 1996 and 2001 if they happened to be at home during the Census. Yet they might have spent the majority of those nine years out of the province, working in Gauteng. (b) Labour Force Surveys (LFS): The measurement of labour migration to another province relies on data from household surveys (which record those absent from a household). These are sample rather than comprehensive surveys and the data is only as good as the methodology used (Posel 2003). For example, the HSRC conducted a household migration survey in 2002 but has since admitted that there were considerable methodological irregularities (van Zyl 2005). This report therefore does not use the HSRC survey at all, relying instead on SSA household surveys. The SSA 2002 and 2004 Labour Force Survey included a module about labour migration, collecting information from households about the number and whereabouts of migrants absent from the household. Unfortunately, this module has not been part of every annual survey. In addition, the 2004 survey contains puzzling anomalies and irregularities. This report therefore relies on the 2002 survey, even though it is more dated. 3.3 Volume of Inter-Provincial Migration The volume of inter-provincial migration in South Africa since the end of apartheid is large and growing. Nearly 5 million people are estimated to have changed their province of primary residence since This is far larger than the number of international migrants either arriving in or leaving South Africa. The number of migrants moving each year has also steadily increased over this time period. As Table 12 shows, the average annual number of migrants was 283,000 between 1992 and SSA estimates that the number has now risen to 418,000. Cumulative migration (the number of people living in a province other than their province of birth) was 5.5 million in 2001, or more than 10% of the total South-African born population. 17

18 Table 12: Measures of Total Inter-Provincial Migration Changed Place of Residence No. Ave P.A ,133, , ,687, , * 2,091, ,323 Total 4,912, ,920 Cumulative Migration** ,582,816 Migrant Workers*** ,877,167 * SSA Estimate ** Province of Birth (Census 2001) *** LFS, 2002 Inter-provincial migration (whether of population in general or temporary labour migrants) is therefore an extremely significant phenomenon in South Africa with considerable implications for provincial budgeting and service delivery and national-provincial fiscal relations. The evidence suggests that migration has accelerated since the demise of apartheid and is continuing to grow. This is true both of inter-provincial migration and inter-provincial temporary labour migration (Bekker 2002, Kok 2003, Kok and Collinson 2006). 3.4 Race and Inter-Provincial Migration Race is an important determinant of the probability of internal migration in South Africa. During the inter-censual period , the greatest number of migrants (over two thirds) were black, followed by whites (23.2%), coloureds (5.4%) and Indian/Asians (2.3%) (Table 13). Relatively speaking, however, whites are the most mobile. While 3.8% of the black population migrated between provinces, the equivalent figure for whites was 10.4%. In addition, though whites made up less than 10% of the total population (9.6%), they constituted 23.2% of the total number of migrants. In other words, whites were relatively more mobile than any other population group. This is unsurprising given the historical legacy of apartheid. Whites are considerably more affluent and internal and international mobility is strongly correlated with economic circumstances. Table 13: Total inter-provincial Migration by Population Group, Population Migrants ( ) Proportion migrants Proportion Total Migrants Black African % 69.2% Coloured % 5.4% Indian/Asian % 2.3% White % 23.2% Total % Source: SSA 18

19 3.5 Age and Inter-Provincial Migration Migration is usually dominated by the young. As Table 14 shows, 80% of South Africa s migrants between 1996 and 2001 were less than 40 years old. People aged between 20 and 24 constituted the largest group of migrants (356,463). Followed by the age cohort (with 337,605). The total number of migrants in their 20s was therefore 694,068 or 36% of the total number of migrants. People in these age groups were also relatively more mobile. Between 9-10% of the total number of people in their 20s migrated, compared with less than 6% for all other age groups. As Table 12 shows, the probability of migration increases with age up until 30 and then declines. Less than 3% of retirees (over 65) migrated. While the census data does not provide information on those aged between 0-4, the numbers migrants of school going age was significant at 24% of all migrants. Table 14: Age Distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, Total Migrants % of Migrants Total Non-Migrants % of Total Total Child and youth migration is therefore a major and largely unrecognized phenomenon with massive implications for service delivery. Most people under the age of 20 are consumers of services not producers of wealth. The reasons for youth and child migration need to be more fully explored. Traditionally, they relate to children accompanying parents (in one direction) and children being sent back to rural homes for education (in the other). The picture is increasingly complicated by the AIDS epidemic which has seen the emergence and acceleration of children s (often orphan) migration. 19

20 3.6 Gender and Inter-Provincial Migration The process leading to greater female involvement in migration is known generally as the feminization of migration. International migration flows to South Africa are male-dominated. This is not the case for contemporary internal migration in South Africa. The most striking feature of contemporary internal migration in South Africa, is that there are very similar numbers of male and female migrants. Between 1996 and 2001, for example, there were only 30,000 more male inter-provincial migrants than female (975,000 male v 945,,000 female) (Table 15). Females make up 49.5% of the total number of inter-provincial migrants. There is not any appreciable gender difference in the age structure of migration with roughly similar numbers of male and female migrants in each age category (Figure 3). In other words, whatever the motivation and reasons for migration (usually thought to differ for males and females), overall the gendered patterns of migration are roughly similar for all age groups including children, scholars, the working-age population and seniors. This, again, is a distinctive though unusual finding (Figure 3). Figures 3 and 4 show that migrants have a very distinctive age-gender distribution which differs markedly from that of the population as a whole. While individuals under the age of 20 dominate the general population, the migrant population is dominated by people in their 20s. Table 15: Age and Sex distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, Age Range Migrants Non-Migrants Males Females Total Males Females Total Total

21 Figure 3: Population Pyramid of Inter-Provincial Migration, Males Females Figure 4: Population Pyramid of South African Population, Males Females 21

22 3.7 Marital Status and Inter-Provincial Migration Traditionally, unmarried people are more disposed to moving and seeking out other opportunities than people who are married. In Southern Africa, on the other hand, increasing numbers of migrants are also household heads which suggests that marriage is no longer the stick factor that it one was (Pendleton et al 2006). Studies show that poverty-induced migration is largely responsible for the increase in married migrants and migrants with regular partners (Posel and Casale 2005). Figure 5 shows the marital status of South Africa s total migrant population in Very few migrants under the age of 20 are married. However, after the age of 25, the proportion of migrants who are married or are living together with regular partners increases dramatically. In the age band, over half of the migrants are married or in regular relationships. This is in sharp contrast to non-migrants where the vast majority of people under the age of 30 are unmarried (Figure 6). The proportion of unmarried migrants declines with each succeeding age cohort such that very few migrants over the age of 40 are not married or in a relationship. In contrast to non-migrants, migrants tend to marry younger. The highest modal cohort for married migrants is compared to for non-migrants. No data was available from the Census on whether or not married migrants were also household heads. Figure 5: Marital status of Migrants, Marital status of Migrants Divorced Separated Widow er/w idow Never married Living together like married partners Polygamous marriage Married traditional/customary Married civil/religious Source: SSA 1 Figures 5 and 6 are based on intra and inter-provincial migration data. Data on marital status for inter-provincial migration alone was unavailable. 22

23 Figure 6: Marital Status of Non-Migrants, 2001 Marital status of Non-Migrants Divorced Separated Widower/widow Never married Living together like married partners Polygamous marriage Married traditional/customary Married civil/religious Age Source: SSA 3.8 Education and Inter-Provincial Migration 3.9 Spatial Patterns of Inter-Provincial Migration Collinson and Kok (2006) develop a five point settlement typology from Census 2001 data and apply it to both current place and previous place of residence. Places are categorized into one of the following: Metro formal Other urban formal Urban informal Tribal area (former homelands) Formal rural (private land). A cross tabulation was then computed of place of residence and previous place by settlement category. The most striking feature of the matrix is the dominance of metro formal areas as destinations. In each of the five categories of origin, 55% or more of the moves were to metro formal places. Over 90% of moves from metro formal places were to other metro formal places. The proportion of moves from urban to rural areas was extremely low (only 4% of moves from metro formal areas were urban to rural). Around a quarter (26%) of moves from urban informal settlements were to other urban informal settlements. In terms of rural-rural moves, 30% of moves from tribal areas were to other rural areas and 20% of moves from formal rural areas were to other rural areas. Table 16: Spatial Organization of Migrant Moves,

24 Origin Metro formal Other urban formal Destination Urban informal Tribal area Formal rural Total Metro formal 91% 2% 3% 2% 2% 100% Other formal urban 64% 16% 4% 6% 9% 100% Urban informal 55% 9% 26% 6% 5% 100% Tribal area 55% 8% 6% 23% 7% 100% Formal rural 67% 8% 5% 10% 10% 100% Source: Collinson and Kok (2006) There is thus a substantial shift from all settlement categories of origin to a formal metropolitan destination. Urbanisation (through migration) is therefore happening at what Collinson and Kok (2006) call an almost alarming rate. The Metro formal is a the most frequent destination category and the reverse flow is very thin indeed, i.e. there is very little migration from metro formal areas to any of the other categories. The metro formal category is thus the major net migration attractor. At the municipal level, most internal migration is towards municipalities that are highly urbanized (the so-called metro-formal areas). For example, Table 17 shows the municipalities experiencing the greatest in-migration of population between 2001 and 2006, as estimated by SSA. The majority of these municipalities contain large urban centres. Five of the top ten are in Gauteng and five of the top twelve are in the Western Cape. By contrast Table 18 shows the municipalities with the greatest out-migration between These are primarily heavily populated rural and semi-urban areas. Five of the top ten are in the Eastern Cape; three of the top ten are in Limpopo and five of the top twenty are in Kwazulu Natal. Table 17: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest In-Migration of Population Between 2001 and 2006 Name of Municipality Province Net In- Migration Total Pop. In 2006 In-Migration as % of Total Pop. In 2006 Ekurhuleni MM Gauteng City of Tshwane MM Gauteng City of Cape Town MM Western Cape City of Johannesburg MM Gauteng West Rand DM Gauteng ethekwini MM KwaZulu-Natal Eden DM Western Cape Bojanala Platinum DM North West Boland DM* Western Cape Metsweding DM Gauteng West Coast DM Western Cape Overberg DM Western Cape Umgungundlovu DM KwaZulu-Natal

25 Waterberg DM Limpopo Nelson Mandela MM Eastern Cape Southern DM North West Ehlanzeni DM Mpumalanga Siyanda DM Northern Cape Nkangala DM Mpumalanga Source: SACN, 2006 * Boland DM is now Cape Winelands DM Table 18: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest Out-Migration of Population Between 2001 and 2006 Name of Municipality Province Net Out- Migration Total Pop. In 2006 Out-Migration as % of Total Pop. In 2006 OR Tambo DM Eastern Cape Amatole DM Eastern Cape Chris Hani DM Eastern Cape Sekhukune DM Mpumalanga Capricorn DM Limpopo Vhembe DM Limpopo Mopani DM Limpopo Central DM North West Alfred Nzo DM Eastern Cape Lejweleputswa DM Free State Bohlabela DM* Limpopo and Mpumalanga Umzinyathi DM KwaZulu-Natal Ukhahlamba DM Eastern Cape Thabo Mofutsanyane DM Free State Zululand DM KwaZulu-Natal Bophirima DM North West Umkhanyakude DM KwaZulu-Natal Gert Sibande DM Mpumalanga Uthukela DM KwaZulu-Natal uthungulu DM KwaZulu-Natal Source: SACN, 2006 Bohlabela District Municipality was disestablished under boundary changes in March 2006 and incorporated into the Mopani and Ehlanzeni District Municipalities Figure 7: Major Migrant Destination Muncipalities,

26 Western Cape 1. Cape Town * 2. West Coast 3. Cape Winelands 4. Overberg 5. Eden 6. Central Karoo Eastern Cape 7. Nelson Mandela * 8. Cacadu 9. Amatole 10. Chris Hani 11. Ukhahlamba 12. OR Thambo 13. Alfred Nzo Free State 14. Xhariep 15. Motheo 16. Lejweleputswa 17. Thabo Mofutsanyane 18. Northern Free State Northern Cape 19. Namakwa 20. Karoo 21. Siyanda 22. Frances Baard 23. Kgalagadi North West 24. Bojanala Platinum 25. Central 26. Bophirima 27. Southern Gauteng 28. West Rand 29. Johannesburg * 30. Sedibeng 31. Ekhuruleni * 32. Metsweding 33. Tshwane * Limpopo 34. Mopani 35. Vhembe 36. Capricorn 37. Waterberg 38. Sekhukhune Mpumalanga 39. Gert Sibande 40. Nkangala 41. Ehlanzeni KwaZulu-Natal 42. Amajuba 43. Zululand 44. Umkhanyakude 45. uthungulu 46. Umzinyathi 47. Uthukela 48. Umgungundlovu 49. ilembe 50. ethekwini * 51. Ugu 52. Sisonke 26