1H6 ADB GLOBAL CRISIS, REMITTANCES, AND POVERTY IN ASIA B Asian Development Bank

Transcription

1 ADB 1H6 GLOBAL CRISIS, REMITTANCES, AND POVERTY IN ASIA B Asian Development Bank

2 CONTENTS Foreword iii Acronyms and Abbreviations '.". xvii Contributors I...-.,;-:: xix Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Guntur Sugiyarto A. Background : 1 B. Motivation and the Main Purpose of the Study 2 C. Organization of the Book 4 Chapter 2: Effects of Global Crisis on Remittance and Poverty in Asia 5 Guntur Sugiyarto and Ernesto Pernia A. Introduction 5 B. The Pros and Cons 8 C. The Latest Progress 11 D. Distilling Key Lessons from the Study Results 11 E. Results Summary Global Asia Bangladesh Indonesia Pakistan The Philippines VietNam Overall i Migrants and Their Families 23 F. Conclusions and Policy Implications Policy Implications Other Key Issues 28 Chapter 3: A Macro View of the Impacts of International Remittances: Changing Measures, Changing Results? 31 Guntur Sugiyarto and Carlos Vargas-Silva A. Introduction 31 B. The Ideal Measure of Remittances 32 VII

3 viii Contents C. Estimation Procedures 34 D. Empirical Results Economic Growth Poverty." Consumption, Exports, and Investment 38 E. Conclusion and Implications 38 F. Tables 39 Chapter 4: Effects of Global Crisis on Remittances and Poverty: Country Case Studies 49 A. Bangladesh 49 Selim Raihan and Guntur Sugiyarto 1. Introduction Effects of the Global Crisis Remittances A..r Ready-Made Garment Exports Conclusion and Policy Implications Tables 56 B. Indonesia 64 Kecuk Suhariyanto, Guntur Sugiyarto, and Ahmad Avenzora 1. Introduction Effects of the Global Crisis ~ 65 a. Labor migration and remittances 65 b. Remittances in household incomes 68 c. Remittances and consumption expenditure patterns 70 d. Remittances, poverty, and inequality Conclusion and Policy Implications Tables 74 C. Pakistan ;.' 78 Vaqar Ahmed and Guntur Sugiyarto 1. Introduction Crises, Migration, and Remittances 79 a. External shocks and developing economies 79 b. Remittance flows to Pakistan during the global crisis Previous Research on Remittances to Pakistan : Pakistan's Rising Remittances: Initiatives and Response to Crisis 86

4 Contents ix 5. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Pakistani Exports Quantifying the Impact of Remittances 91 a. Macro and meso level effects 91 b. Welfare analysis Conclusion Tables 97 D. Philippines 104 Alvin P. Ang and Guntur Sugiyarto 1. Introduction Crisis and Demand for Migrant Workers Cushioning the Impact on Migrants and Their Families Impact of the Crisis on Host Countries Impact of the Crisis on Households with Migrant Members 115 a. Impact of international remittances on the income ranking of households. i...r. 116 b. Impact of the global economic crisis on the income ranking of remittance-receiving households Conclusion and Recommendations Tables 119 E. VietNam 124 Nguyen Due Thanh, andhoang Thi Chinh Thon 1. Introduction An Overview of International Remittances to Viet Nam Related Previous Studies International Remittances and Poverty in Viet Nam: An Update 131 a. Data sources 131 b. Poverty: A brief assessment 132 c. Receipt of international remittances 133 d. Summing up Impacts of Remittances on Poverty: A Microeconometric Analysis 134 a. Model specification and data 134 b. Results and interpretations Impacts of Remittances at Macro and Sector Levels Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model 136 a. Model and data ; 136 b. Simulation results Key Findings and Policy Implications Tables 141

5 x Contents Chapter 5: Impact on Migrants and Their Families: Survey-Results 159 Guntur Sugiyarto A. Introduction 159 B. Main Results Profile of Migrants and Migrant Households Knowledge and Expectations about the Crisis Impact on Out-Migration Impact on Household Income Impact on Savings and Investments Impact on Remittance Dynamics ' ;: Migrant Household Coping Mechanisms Migrant Worker Coping Mechanisms Assistance to Migrant Households 175 C. Conclusion and Policy Implications 175 D. Tables : : 178 ^ Appendix: Survey Design and Methodology 186 i. Bangladesh 186 ii. Indonesia 187 iii. Philippines 187 References 189 Box Box4B.l: Data Source Susenas 69 Figures Figure 2.1: Global Remittances and Other Financial Flows, Figure 2.2: Trends of Remittance Inflows, Figure 4A.1: Effects of Remittance Shock on Various Aspects of the Economy 52 Figure 4A.2: Effects of a Reduction in Ready-Made Garment Exports on Sectoral Outputs and Prices 54 Figure 4B.1: Trends of Indonesian Exports and Imports ($ billion) 65 Figure 4B.2: Number of Indonesian Migrant Workers by Gender, Figure 4B.3: Occupational Distribution of Migrant Workers, Figure 4B.4: Number of Indonesian Migrant Workers by Major Destination Countries, Figure 4B.5: Province of Origin of Indonesian Migrant Workers, Figure 4B.6: Total Migrant Workers and Remittances in Indonesia, Figure 4B.7: Share of Household Income by Source and Migrant Status, 2007 (%) 70 Figure 4C.1: Pakistan: Workers' Remittances, (S million) 82