Thunder Bay Local Immigration Partnership Immigration and migration in the Northwest: Why do we need immigrants?

Transcription

1 Thunder Bay Local Immigration Partnership Immigration and migration in the Northwest: Why do we need immigrants? Charles Cirtwill, President & CEO Thunder Bay, 20 September 2017

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3 Agenda 1. Demographic Trends: How are Thunder Bay and the Northwest Doing? 2. Socio-Economic Consequences: Increasing Demographic Dependence, and Decreasing Productivity 3. Immigration and Migration: One of the Solutions 4. Not the ONLY solution: Closing the Education Gap

4 Demographic Trends Little Population Growth in the Northwest 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% CUMULATIVE POPULATION GROWTH CROISSANCE CUMULÉE DE LA POPULATION Projections Kenora, 20.7% Northwest, 3.1% Thunder Bay, -0.6% -20% Rainy River, -20.7% -25% Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, estimates of population, and on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring 2016

5 Demographic Trends Population is Aging in the Northwest 35% 30% POPULATION 65 YEARS OLD AND OVER AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION, BY DISTRICT POPULATION ÂGÉE DE 65 ANS ET PLUS EN PROPORTION DE LA POPULATION TOTALE, PAR DISTRICT 30.2% 31.6% 30.2% 25% 24.5% 20% 15% 10% 12.8% 19.4% 19.4% 14.6% 9.7% 14.2% 12.4% 16.7% 5% 0% Thunder Bay Rainy River Kenora Ontario Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Census, Various Years and Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring 2016

6 Demographic Trends Labour Force is Projected to Decrease in the Northwest 10% CUMULATIVE GROWTH OF THE LABOUR FORCE (15 TO 64 YEARS OLD) BY DISTRICT CROISSANCE CUMULÉE DE LA POPULATION ACTIVE (15 À 64 ANS) PAR DISTRICT 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Kenora, -3.3% Northwest, -9.0% Thunder Bay, -10.3% Rainy River, -16.6% -20% Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring 2016

7 Socio-Economic Consequences More and More Dependents 0.9 DEMOGRAPHIC DEPENDENCY RATIO (DDR) RATIO DE DÉPENDANCE DÉMOGRAPHIQUE (RDD) DDR, TBAY DDR, NWO DDR, ON Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring 2016 DDR = (Population Population 65+) (Population 15-64)

8 Socio-Economic Consequences Decreasing Productivity PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS TENDANCES DE PRODUCTIVITÉ Thunder Bay Kenora Rainy River Northwest Source: Cuddy, J., and Moazzami, B. (2017). Northern Projections: Human Capital series.

9 Socio-Economic Consequences Skills shortage as workers will retire NUMBER OF RETIREMENTS BY 2021 AND GRADUATES BY OCCUPATION IN NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO NOMBRE DE DÉPARTS À LA RETRAITE D ICI À 2021 ET DE DIPLÔMÉS PAR OCCUPATION DANS LE NORD-OUEST Sales & service occupations Trades, transport & equipment operators & related occupations Management occupations Business, finance & administration occupations Natural resources, agriculture & related production occupations Occupations in manufacturing & utilities Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport Health occupations UNDER SUPPLY OFFRE INSUFFISANTE OVER SUPPLY OFFRE EXCESSIVE Natural & applied sciences & related occupations Occupations in education, law & social, community & government services ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Number of worker who will reach 65 by 2021 / Nombre de travailleurs qui auront 65 ans en 2021 Total Number of Graduates, 2014 / Nombre de diplômés, 2014 Sources: Jarrod Sundmark, Labour Market Alignment: Education in the North Northern Policy Institute, based on Statistics Canada Job Vacancies and Wages Survey, and CUDO/data provided by Colleges; Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011.

10 Immigration and Migration A Source of Population Growth 400 NET MIGRATION AND MIGRATION COMPONENTS - THUNDER BAY DISTRICT MIGRATION NETTE ET COMPOSANTES DE LA MIGRATION - DISTRICT DE THUNDER BAY Net International Migration / Migration internationale nette Net Intraprovincial Migration / Migration intraprovinciale nette Net Interprovincial Migration / Migration interprovinciale nette Net Migration / Migration nette Source: author's calculations based on Statistics Canada. Table Components of population growth by census division, sex and age group for the period from July 1 to June 30, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2011, annual (persons)

11 Immigration and Migration A Source of Population Growth 500 NET MIGRATION AND MIGRATION COMPONENTS - NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO MIGRATION NETTE ET COMPOSANTES DE LA MIGRATION NORD-OUEST Net Interprovincial Migration/Migration interprovinciale nette Net International Migration/Migration internationale nette Net Intraprovincial Migration/Migration intraprovinciale nette Net Migration/Migration nette Source: author's calculations based on Statistics Canada. Table Components of population growth by census division, sex and age group for the period from July 1 to June 30, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2011, annual (persons)

12 Immigration and Migration Between 356 and 1,861 newcomers per year needed REQUIRED ANNUAL NET MIGRATION - THUNDER BAY DISTRICT MIGRATION ANNUELLE NETTE REQUISE - DISTRICT DE THUNDER BAY Annual Net Migration, Target 1: DDR constant at 2015 level Migration annuelle nette moyenne, Cible 1 : RDD constant au niveau de 2015 Average Annual Net Migration, Target 2 Migration annuelle nette moyenne, Cible 2 Annual Net Migration, Target 2: Ontario Growth Rate Migration annuelle nette, Cible 2 : RDD croît au même taux que celui de l'ontario Average Annual Net Migration, Target 1 Migration annuelle nette moyenne, Cible 1 Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring 2016

13 Immigration and Migration Between 354 and 2,921 newcomers per year needed 6000 REQUIRED ANNUAL NET MIGRATION NORTHWEST MIGRATION ANNUELLE NETTE REQUISE NORD-OUEST , Net Annual Migration - Target 1/Migration annuelle nette - Cible 1 Net Annual Migration - Target 2/Migration annuelle nette - Cible 2 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 1/Migration annuelle nette moyenne - Cible 1 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 2/Migration annuelle nette moyenne - Cible Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring 2016

14 Immigration and Migration A Source of Productivity Growth Immigrant Education 150 HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX FOR THE WORKING AGE POPULATION, 2011 INDICE DE CAPITAL HUMAIN POUR LA POPULATION EN ÂGE DE TRAVAILLER, Northwest Thunder Bay Kenora Rainy River Immigrants Total Population / Population totale Source: Cuddy, J., and Moazzami, B. (2017). Northern Projections: Human Capital series.

15 Solutions and Next Steps Lifestyle 5% Education prospects 5% PRIMARY REASON FOR CHOOSING DESTINATION (CMA) RAISON PRINCIPALE DERRIÈRE LE CHOIX DE LA DESTINATION (RMR) Housing 4% Job prospects 14% Other 13% Presence of friends and family 59% Education prospects 12% PRIMARY REASON FOR CHOOSING DESTINATION (OUTSIDE TMV) RAISON PRINCIPALE DERRIÈRE LE CHOIX DE LA DESTINATION (EN DEHORS DES CMA) Business Prospects 6% Lifestyle 6% Job prospects 32% Other 8% Presence of friends and family 36% Source: Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, 2001.

16 Solutions and Next Steps State of the North Conference September 27-28, Timmins Speakers Panel on Local Immigration Pilots: Suzanne Ley Executive Director Nova Scotia Office of Immigration, Atlantic Immigration Pilot Monika Feist Success Skills Centre, Manitoba Nominee Program Ronald Labrecque Assemblée Communautaire Fransaskoise, linkage with Mauritius

17 Solutions and Next Steps Community Matchmakers Project Concept Our community is good at attracting interest estimate 600 resumes from last marketing trip Our community is good at settlement experienced, effective, committed There is a GAP between attraction and settlement Pre-arrival services Help businesses: small, medium and large process and paperwork Help businesses: small, medium and large match to a candidate Help immigrants: find the job that gets them the points they need Help immigrants: process and paperwork

18 Solutions and Next Steps Tell our story CEDC has already started this Not just trees and streams Affordable housing at all levels Competitive wages Job vacancies Amazing food and entertainment choices Short commutes Great schools and hospitals You CAN get anywhere from here Internet and Cell needs some work

19 Solutions and Next Steps Be CONSISTENT Work Together Three goals no more ONE would be better Everyone buy in Everyone send the same message NOT distracted by flavour of the month fad NOT put off if growth happens first somewhere else It is going to take TIME, MONEY and EFFORT

20 NOT an Either/Or Choice Labour Force Increasingly Composed of Indigenous People INDIGENOUS SHARE OF THE TOTAL LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS POPULATION AUTOCHTONE EN PROPORTION DE LA POPULATION ACTIVE - PROJECTIONS 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 44.0% 40.3% 29.3% 25.1% 27.1% 18.4% 17.9% 11.7% Thunder Bay Rainy River Kenora Northwest Source: Cuddy, J., and Moazzami, B. (2017). Northern Projections: Human Capital series.

21 NOT an Either/Or Choice We must ALSO close the education gap 145 HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX FOR THE WORKING AGE POPULATION, 2011 INDICE DE CAPITAL HUMAIN POUR LA POPULATION EN ÂGE DE TRAVAILLER, Northwest Thunder Bay Kenora Rainy River Indigenous / Autochtones Total Population / Population totale Source: Cuddy, J., and Moazzami, B. (2017). Northern Projections: Human Capital series.

22 Conclusion The Northwest s labour force is aging and declining. That decline impacts the future economic sustainability and productivity of our communities. In the short-medium term migration could help mitigate this trend. In the medium-long term, investing in Indigenous education could help close the skills gap. We MUST do BOTH. Success depends on WORKING TOGETHER surprise?!

23 Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch. / NorthernPolicy Northern Policy Monthly e- Institute newsletter