Mexico Kidnap and Ransom Summary. November 2017

Transcription

1 Mexico Kidnap and Ransom Summary November 2017

2 Contents Overview An incomplete picture Statistics and annual comparison Gangs, specialist groups and DTOs Virtual Express Kidnapping Geographical synopsis North East - Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas North West - Baja California, Chihuahua and Sonora Central - Ciudad de Mexico and Puebla Southern - Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacan and Veracruz Victim profile Ransom Values and timeframes Where to watch Future P a g e 2

3 Overview Mexico has historically been associated with Kidnap and Ransom (K&R) cases and the current situation is no different. The country is rated as one of the world s highest risk K&R locations with the leading number of reported incidents globally this quarter. Overall Mexico is rated as 2000 high risk which takes into account 1500 not only the K&R situation but other 1000 concerns such as human trafficking, narco activity, corruption and 500 general crime. 0 K&R Mexico The evolution of the K&R situation in Mexico has transferred through a number of key segments over the last 40 years. The tactic was developed by political groups during the unrest of the 1980 s as a means to take control of parties and states and evolved over the next 20 years to be a powerful tool of the criminal organisations. During Felipe Calderon s presidency (2006 to 2012), there was a large increase in K&R activity as the Cartels and Gangs responded in the worst way to Calderon crime offensives. During this period, the main targets for the Kidnappers were the highly affluent members of society following the more traditional long-term kidnap tactics including both national and foreign victims. The next stage for the K&R evolution came with the election of President Enrique Pena Nieto who had a different strategy to combat the increasing criminal activity in country creating the National Gendarmerie Division and going after the Cartel leaders; actually arresting Sinaloa kingpin Joaquin El Chapo Guzman. However, El Chapo escaped in 2015 (before being re captured) and there was a significant increase in the number of high profile Cartel incidents over the following 12 months which left the K&R industry in Mexico again in a state of change. highest since Over the last 18 months there has been a significant evolution in the mondus operandi of the gangs and cartels to now focus on non-traditional kidnaping strategies including express and virtual tactics. There has also been a change in the internal structures of the Cartels and many have been broken into much smaller informal crews/gangs who are now fighting over the K&R rackets which has meant an increase in violent attacks and now the country s murder tally is on track to be its While K&R in Mexico continues to be primarily carried out for profit, precedent indicates that the 2018 federal elections will bring an increase in politically motivated kidnappings and detentions. An incomplete picture Unfortunately, understanding the K&R landscape in Mexico both historically and currently is made inherently difficult by the limited and unreliable nature of government data on the matter as well as by the chronic problem of underreporting (which stems from the fact that very few K&R victims seek government help as they fear it could undermine their ability to resolve the issue.) Consequently, official figures are generally 30 to 50 times lower than most analysts, academics and NGOs

4 believe the actual rates of KRE crimes in Mexico actually are (these unofficial figures are typically generated by combining government data with journalistic reporting and community surveys.) A 2012 study, for instance, concluded that just one in every 180 kidnappings in Mexico was actually reported to authorities. Connected to this issue of reporting is the increasing involvement of Mexican law enforcement officials in KRE crimes. In 2005, members of the Mexican police force were estimated to be involved in 2 out of every 10 kidnappings; today, that figure is believed to be as high as 8 out of every 10 incidents. The level of coordination is particularly concerning. A police cartel exposed in 2012 counted more than 6500 officers among its ranks. More broadly, police have been implicated in high-profile KRE incidents across the country, including the 2014 abduction and suspected killing of 43 students in Guerrero state, which remains a major national issue. Taking all this into account is acceptable to state that government statistics in Mexico do not accurately represent the real picture in-country. To provide as fuller picture as possible this report utilises the Semáforo Delictivo application which utilises national statistics as well as other multiple sources. Statistics and annual comparison While there have been dips, overall the kidnap figures for 2017 are much higher in 2017 than With an estimated homicides predicted for 2017 the there is strong likelihood that incidents of K&R will increase K&R 2017 vs 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Gangs, specialist groups and DTOs To the outsider kidnapping in Mexico is generally seen as a tool used by the Cartels to generate large financial ransoms or pull political bias. Historically it has, however, the leading drivers in the K&R industry are now organised criminal groups and minor gangs who are able to focus their energy into K&R activities. To break down the reasons for this shift we need to look at the development of the criminal market in Mexico. Due to the killing and arrests of major cartel leaders such as Juan Manuel Loza, also known as El Toro, (Gulf cartel, shot April 2017) and Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman (Sinaloa Cartel, arrested January 2016) there has been a run of internal fallouts within the Cartels. This has created a void in the criminal industry which has now been filled by new groups who are more focused on P a g e 4

5 financial gains rather than territory wars and are able to change their tactics and processes as the government closes in on them. Over the last 18 months there has been a growth in the number of gangs who have K&R as their main modus operandi, they have heavy influence within the local security and political environments and are known to hire their services to the larger organisations. Los Rojos fit this mould, operating in Guerrero and relying heavily on K&R for funding alongside a small amount cocaine trafficking. With close to 20% of cases having been reported to have some link to government, military or police personnel. These new gangs are organised and very driven and as 2017 moves into 2018 we can expect a rise in the number of kidnappings associated with them. Mexico s major drug cartels are also known and Drug Trafficking Organisations (DTOs), are only involved with around 25 to 30% of kidnappings in Mexico, however, they are still a realistic K&R risk threat as they have stronger infrastructure and financial setups so are able to play the long game kidnap strategy with a much higher success rate. Virtual One of the main forms of kidnapping or extortion on the rise in Mexico is Virtual kidnapping (VK), in this situation the assailants attempt to extract a ransom from a family with the false claims that they have seized a relative or loved one. Over the last two years there has been a number of VK incidents reported affecting foreign nationals in Mexico with the perpetrators often targeting holiday makers these figures are on the rise as the criminals become more educated and savvy with regards victim surveillance including social media platforms. The offenders often pose as cartel or known gang members and will have general details of the apparent victim i.e hair colour, clothing etc and regularly have accomplices screaming in the background during the call to add effect. In many cases these VK are conducted from prisons where the inmates have smuggled cell phones and are able to use the internet to find information and details on their victims. One of the larger VK rings discovered was operating from Tijuana and targeting Central American immigrants based in Washington DC, there were over 5000 calls a day recorded and the perpetrators were advising the person who answered that they had kidnapped a family member. There was no specific intel carried out in this case it was purely based on volume and the odds of success. The average payment made was approximately $2,000 which was sent to San Diego and then smuggled as cash into Tijuana. It is estimate that the group made around $500,000. By all accounts virtual kidnapping incidents rates are set to rise and become more inventive and detailed as the criminal s abilities to harness social media and data capture increase Express Kidnapping Short-term or Express kidnapping (secuestro exprés) is becoming very common across Mexico with both low and high-income victims being targeted. There is a modus operandi in place for the attackers, however, these kidnappings are being carried out by varying groups from individual attackers (often taxi drivers) to organised gangs and groups. The general P a g e 5

6 Aguascalientes Baja California Baja California Sur Campeche Coahuila Chihuahua Chiapas Colima Mexico City Durango Guanajuato Guerrero Hidalgo Jalisco Mexico State Michoacán Morelos Nayarit Nuevo León Oaxaca Puebla Querétaro Quintana Roo San Luis Potosí Sinaloa Sonora Tabasco Tamaulipas Tlaxcala Veracruz Yucatán Zacatecas process involves a victim being held at gunpoint and forced to provide PIN details and information or being taken to an ATM at midnight on what is called a paseo millionario (millionaire tour) and forced to withdraw the maximum allowable amount before and after midnight. These incidents mainly take place in urban centres and more than 20% include some sort of assault. Over the last 12 months there has been a number of cases reported from victims of Express Kidnapping when travelling in Ubers with Female travellers are seen as an easy target due to their physical vulnerability Extortions September 2017 Extortion is a highly profitable business for organised crime in Mexico, it far eclipses Kidnapping and is still on the rise. All 32 states have been affected in some way and many national business owners have accepted the fact they will be pressurised into passing over money at some point. The landscape for extortion covers DTOs, organised gangs and opportunistic criminals with a wide scope of targets perused from small local business owners, through to large international organisations. There are large scale volume operations being run by the major Cartels, Sinaloa, CJNG alongside their single target operations. The majority of these single target incidents go unreported, however, over the last few years some examples include a fire being set at Key Energy Services office in Tabasco, they are US Oil and Gas company and the companies legal advisors advised that the fire was due to an extortion scheme. The Zetas Cartel fired a tank at the hotel where Weatherford Oil employees were staying in Cirudad Mier, close to the US border, fortunately no one was killed. A newer form of extortion that is becoming favourable with the more technical Cartels involves a cyber element where the perpetrators threaten to delete or destroy a company s data or information unless they are paid. There is also an element of the release of personal or data protected information onto the internet. This element of crime in Mexico needs to be focused on as we move forward, the government has created a number of specialist agencies dedicated to fighting cybercrime and are investing heavily in the area as the 2018 elections approach. Criminal groups are utilising social media to carry out their extortion schemes, they send messages via facebook, Instagram or twitter using the information they find their victims profiles to add pressure. The Zetas cartel use this method on a high-volume basis as they have a well-known brand which adds an extra level of intimidation, Looking ahead we can extrapolate the current statistical situation to see that the main areas of concern for 2018 and beyond will likely come from P a g e 6

7 online attacks. As technology improves small and major businesses alike will need to up their cyber and online security to combat these assaults. Geographical synopsis Kidnapping is a countrywide threat in Mexico however there are variations on incident numbers depending on location and profile of victim. Foreign nationals are more likely to be taken in major cities, airports or border crossings, nationals can be taken in small towns and from highways while migrants are most often targeted in the southern border states as they enter the country. North East - Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas All three states have shown increased levels of cartel-related violence including a sharp rise in street based gang battles, however, reported K&R incidents have decreased in some areas in comparison to As we consider this in more detail we see that as the cartels operate more in these areas there follows an increase in authority corruption and as such there is a drop in the level or incidents reported due to a decrease in confidence in the authorities from the locals. There are also a growing number of accounts of local and federal police being actively involved in the kidnappings themselves. The shared border between Tamaulipas and the US is close to 360km and it has the highest number of land crossings per day across the entire border this makes it a highly strategic area for the criminal group that can maintain control. The Gulf and Zetas cartels are operating heavily in this North-East region and due to the internal fractions in their operations Express and traditional kidnappings are likely to be the biggest threat to both nationals and foreigners as they generate sort after funds at a rapid rate compared to the more traditional methods. Virtual kidnapping is becoming rife in Reynosa, Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria and as such travellers are advised to maintain regular contact with their families during their trip. North West - Baja California, Chihuahua and Sonora Cartel related violence has been on a rapid increase in the North West through the first half of 2017 with 144 killings in Baja California alone which is a 400% increase on the same period last year. The region is becoming increasingly unstable as the Sinaloa Cartel struggle to maintain control or their territory; battling against the Beltran Leyva Organisation (BLO), the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) and security forces. The number of reported kidnappings is low compared to other violent states, such as Michaoacan, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas, however, as previously discussed areas that have a heavy cartel presence are likely to have elevated areas of corruption from security and government authorities. Therefore, reported figures in these states must be taken as a guide and we should appreciate that the security threat is much higher. Also with the arrest earlier this year of Joaquin El Chapo Guzman there has been a deuteriation in the security situation in the North-Western states as the Sinaloa Cartel continue to make changes internally and externally with an increase in K&R and extortion cases expected. Baja California has been a hotsport for virtual kidnaping scams and this is predicted to continue to rise with assailants targeting victims over the border in the US P a g e 7

8 Central - Ciudad de Mexico and Puebla Kidnapping cases in the central states have historically followed a traditional form targeting high wealth individuals specifically for significant wealth gain or political control. However, over the last 5 years the reported victims have fallen into the middle and lower-class spectrum those with not substantial wealth but who will have quick access to funds. K&R cases in this region do not generally last longer than 10 days with victims being released unharmed after ransom is paid, however, there have been reported cases of victims being tortured and killed. Nationals are more likely to be targeted across Mexico City and Puebla due to language barriers and speed of completion. Kidnappings in this region are generally carried out by smaller gangs who often terrify victims by claiming to be part of a known Cartel to speed up the process. Southern - Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacan and Veracruz kidnapping and traditional KRE activity will remain pervasive in south western Mexico in the medium-term. The crime and murder rates in Veracruz are elevated and it is considered a high-risk state. The CLNG and Zetas are in constant battle and there is now reported to be a new alliance between the Zetas-Vieja Escuela and the Gulf Cartel who are causing significant issues for the new state Governor Miguel Angel Yunes. Traditional kidnapping tactics are still very popular in Veracruz and traveller are advised to avoid non-toll roads and displays of wealth. The highest rated states for K&R risk are Tamaulipas, Morelos, Tabasco, Guerrero, Mexico State and Michoacan. As well as extreme Cartel related violence, express kidnapping has become a significant security risk in Guerrero, Jalisco and Michoacan. There are regular and aggressive violent battles between rival cartels, specifically CJNG (Michoacan); La Familia Michoacana; Los Caballeros Templarios; Los Ardillos, Los Rojos, BLO and Los Caballeros Templarios. The external fighting between these cartels as well as internal power struggles that are flowing on to the streets coupled with the inflated crime rates on the ground has meant that these separate groups are all looking for money fast and are focused on express kidnapping and extortion to do this. These practices are increasing each month and are expected to continue into It is within this context that both short-term express P a g e 8

9 Victim profile Nationals Although seen as a problem for foreign nationals the majority of kidnapping incidents in Mexico (approximately 94%) are involving national Mexican victims. There are a number of factors behind this: Awareness Kidnapping a foreign national generates much more attention and draws a larger scale of resource from authorities both national and international Access Local victims are much more readily available and predictable routines and surveillance operations will go unnoticed Timeframe It is far easier for the kidnappers to deal with in Mexico than across borders in particular where countries have laws in place prohibiting ransom negotiations Originally known as being an issue for the wealthy, kidnap for ransom in Mexico has now moved towards pursuing the general mass market, taxi Drivers, manual workers, small business owners and doctors have all been targeted heavily over the last 24 months. Wealthy Mexicans are known for hiring bodyguards and taking security precautions, which results in a much harder target and now with the typical profile of kidnappers becoming younger and less sophisticated they are more willing to favour quick paydays over substantial ones. This all results in a dramatic change in the victim profile making Mexico s middle class, and even the working poor, the criminals targets of choice. The average time frame for kidnapping incidents is currently 48 hours to 7 days with the assailant preferring to take several victims at once rather than one as this this allows for numerous smaller ransom demands which have a much higher likelihood of being paid. Reports from recent recovered victims include descriptions of 5 to 10 other detainees being held during their captivity. Delving further into reports shows that approximately 70% of kidnapping victims are males and 75% are nonaffluent with the average demand being 100,000 pesos ($5,500 USD). Foreigners Even though the larger scale kidnapping problem in Mexico is based around national population the risk to Foreign Nationals has to be taken very seriously (see diagram 1). Foreign national cases make up approximately 5% of the total K&R cases in country (excluding Central American immigrant incidents). Dual US-Mexican nationals are more likely to be targeted as are city-based foreign national s due to reasons Foreigner Kidnapping Hotspots Q Mexico 321 DRC 26 Sudan 22 Libya 16 Nigeria 12 Thailand 3 Peru 3 Somalia 2 Colombia 2 Philippines 2 mentioned above, ease of contact and negotiation lines. The highest target industries for foreign owned businesses are Construction, Engineering and Extractives (minerals, oil and gas) due to their mix of high wealth individual targets and substantial national employee footprints. There are significantly elevated cases involving these industries in Veracruz, Mexico State, Puebla and Tamaulipas with Oil and Gas cases in the Gulf of Mexico being most prevalent. P a g e 9

10 Migrants Central American refugees who are looking to flee the poverty and violence of the home countries will look to travel to the US and in turn will have to pass through Mexico. During this time, they are more likely to become victims of crime and over the last 6 months, based upon reported K&R cases, they are being targeted by Kidnappers who are often working with local security forces. When the Zetas split from the Gulf Cartel in 2010 they began to build a large-scale venture based upon high volume migrant-kidnapping. The Zetas original members are from a Special Forces background and are known to run Military level operations being responsible for a number Mexico s largest kidnappings, including massacres of 72 migrants in 2010 and 193 in Where migrants were kidnapped from buses, killed and buried in mass graves in the northern state of Tamaulipas. The local police played a part in both cases, and according to reports corrupt officials continue to play a major role in the kidnapping of migrants in Mexico. The state of Tobasco is one of the most dangerous sections for the migrants as it sits on the shortest route between Guatemala and the US it is a very sparely populated state however has one of the highest kidnap rates per headcount in the country Last year, state authorities rescued 53 migrants and arrested 39 people, including a handful of low-ranking police officers, operating in Tobasco. P a g e 10

11 Ransom Values and timeframes Both the value of the ransom demanded and the timeframe for a kidnapping are determined by the context and nature of the victim. In larger high-profile cases carried out by more experienced criminal s higher ransoms are demanded and the assailants are willing to keep the victims for much longer time frames due to them having normally invested in intelligence and pre-operational surveillance prior to the crime and will generally have a full breakdown of the victim s nett-worth or value. Actual values demanded to vary greatly from a few hundred dollars to millions, with the average number being approximately $250,000 for high profile victims and $5000 for the higher volume victims. In general, the actual payments made are close 45% of initial demand. However there have been cases of payments being made of up to $50 Million (Angel Losada Moreno VP of a Mexican Supermarket chain) There has been a drop-in ransom demand values over the last 2 years, this in part can be accounted for by the increase in awareness of kidnapping by the higher profile target industries, however, the main change that has been reported in this time is due to the change in the make-up and structure of the Cartels with the smaller internal gangs now targeting a quick turnaround closure as they do not have the capabilities or means to hold victims for prolonged periods of time. There has also been an increase in the number of Virtual and Express kidnappings which are associated with lower financial demands. The effect this has had on the duration of the kidnappings has become quite apparent with nearly all being resolved within a week and according to a study by the ENVIPE (National Survey of Victimisation and Perception on Public Safety) approx. 60% of kidnappings are resolved within 24 hours. The number of the more original high scale kidnappings has detreated over the last 10 years; however, they are still a concern and the larger Cartels such as Sinaloa are still very capable of carrying out long-term kidnappings for considerable financial gain. In Mexico ransom earnings add up to $50 million a year. Where to watch Colima Tecomán in Colima is now the most violent municipality in Mexico, however, three years ago Colima was considered one of Mexico s safest states. So what has changed? There has been a significant turf war between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel over control of the Manzanillo port. Colima is a sort after state as whoever has control of the port controls one of the largest routes for nacro products out of the country. The government have tried to take back control of the region and have utilized the Navy to control the water access routes. However, the crime rate has continued to rise. P a g e 11

12 Firstly, there have been a number of high profile kidnappings in the state including a Teacher s Union leader and a reporter and bearing in mind the Cartels operating in the region further incidents are expected Secondly, based upon analysis of previous statistical escalations we can extrapolate current crime data and see that there is a considerable likelihood in the rise in K&R activities including express incidents. When traveling into Colima personal security detail is advised a heightened awareness should be maintained at all times 2018 Elections Mexico s general elections will be held on the 1st July 2018, there are nine registered parties and there will be a new President voted in as Mexican law states no second term for Incumbents. As the elections approach a rise in Kidnapping activity can be expected, a number of the Cartels still utilise K&R as a political control weapon and due to the fragmented situation with the groups express kidnapping is likely to be used to gain a financial advantage. Reynosa Crime hike There has been a significant rise in criminal activity across Reynosa over the last month, road blocks are being utilised on the bridge crossings from the US and the Gulf Cartel have been very active on the streets with gang members and civilians being killed. There is a warning on travel into the state of Tamaulipas and travellers are directed to avoid all non-essential journeys and when in country personal security detail is advised. Future Mexico currently has a highly volatile security landscape with numerous crime, political and travel concerns. Judging by the escalating situation in states such as Baja California, Tamaulipas and Colima, K&R incidents are expected to continue through Extortion rates are expected to continue to rise through 2017 and into 2018 as it is proving to be a very effective method for the cartels to generate financial gains rapidly and with minimal risk. Target markets are expected to be Oil and gas (due to the changing situation with Pemex), construction and transportation. Internal fighting between the Cartels is predicted to continue and in fact escalate as more and more splinter groups for, as such an increase in Express kidnappings is likely as these smaller group will be looking for cash quickly to fund their drive for rule. The ever-developing Social media platforms combined with the growing technical ability of the Cartels shows that there will likely be a large increase in Virtual K&R in particular more high-volume schemes with the US being targeted from across the border As the 2018 elections approach it is expected that there will be a drive towards a number of candidates by the Cartels, we cannot advise who will be targeted however kidnap for political power is predicted. P a g e 12

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