Trends and Changes Affecting Upstate New York. David L. Brown & Robin Blakely-Armitage State of Upstate Conference June 8, 2011

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1 Trends and Changes Affecting Upstate New York David L. Brown & Robin Blakely-Armitage State of Upstate Conference June 8, 2011

2 Challenges & Opportunities Change, not stability, is the normal situation Some changes enhance opportunities Other changes pose challenges for people, communities, and regions

3 Demographic Changes are Fundamental Changes in: Population size, Geographic distribution of population Socioeconomic composition of population Affect, and are affected by, most aspects of Society Economy Natural environment But demography is not destiny

4 Some Major Changes in Upstate s Demography Changes in Population Size between NYS grew by 7.7% Most growth concentrated in downstate areas mil. (10.8%) Upstate + 200,000 (2.9%) All upstate growth occurred in metro areas Especially in their outlying counties Nonmetropolitan areas lost 100,000 persons Mostly in counties with small to medium sized cities More rural counties held their own

6 Migration is a major component of NYS population change NYS receives and sends migrants both to/from other parts of the US and internationally International migration has been a source of population growth for NYS Slowed dramatically during the recession International migration gains are concentrated in downstate Upstate also has positive migration from abroad, but much more moderate Internal migration has been a source of NYS population loss Net Domestic outmigration is much higher in downstate areas Upstate also lost more domestic migrants than it gained but at much lower rates of loss than downstate

7 Migration is specific of certain ages Upstate has been losing young adults since the 1960s Age Source: U.S. Decennial Censuses

8 The Aging of the baby boom in Upstate NYS NYS Median Age increased by 1.8 years since 2000 More rapid aging in Upstate-- by 2.3 years Pct. 65+ reached 15% in 2010 in Upstate Estimated to reach 20% by 2030

9 NYS is ethnically & racially diverse NYS is much more diverse than upstate 15.2% African American vs. 7.8% 16.8% Hispanic vs. 4.9% 21.3% foreign born vs. 5.8% Upstate metropolitan areas are more diverse than nonmetropolitan areas BUT: the most highly rural areas are more diverse than small and medium sized cities

Changing Landscape of Diversity Hispanics are now the largest race/ethnic group in NYS In Upstate, African Americans still outnumber Hispanics But, Hispanic rate of growth > African American The

10 Changing Landscape of Diversity Hispanics are now the largest race/ethnic group in NYS In Upstate, African Americans still outnumber Hispanics But, Hispanic rate of growth > African American The vast majority of Upstate counties experienced Hispanic population growth NYS County Percentage Change in Hispanic Population, Source: Center for Disease Control, Race and Ethnicity dataset

11 Demography is Not Destiny Demographic changes can propel communities upward or downward Can pose challenges Can enhance opportunities Impacts of population changes are not automatic Mediated by Local social structure National and international environments in which they are embedded

12 Example: Out migration of young adults can affect the school system Net Out migration of School aged Pop. Decline of enrollment Is the school system response to loss of school age kids the same in all communities?

13 The impacts of Population change are mediated by social structure Community A Net Out migration of school age pop. Economic resources Leadership Citizen mobilization Technical know how School Closure Community B Net Out migration of school age pop. Economic resources Leadership Citizen mobilization Technical know how Consolidate Share admin. services Out-source special classes School Remains open

14 Communities & Regions are Embedded in Macro Structural & Policy Environments Policy Choice Efficiency Equity Population Change Size Composition Distribution Local social & economic structure Social & Economic Well Being Unemployment Poverty reduction Land conversion Service provision Macro Economy & Polity Devolution Privatization Globalization

15 Opinions and Perspectives of Upstate New Yorkers

16 In our chartbook we present both secondary data and survey data The survey data comes from our SOUS Survey 600 Upstate NY households, randomly selected, 60 question phone interview Why both secondary data and survey data? Both have utility, value, and influence

17 What is the value of a survey of public opinion? What is the impact of opinion on public policy? In other words, should it matter what people think?

18 Why opinions are important to public policy An article in Political Research Quarterly (March 2003 vol. 56 no ) showed: the impact of public opinion on public policy is substantial; Relevance/currency enhances the impact of public opinion on policy; the impact of opinion on policy remains strong even when the activities of political organizations and elites are taken into account;

19 What about secondary, or hard data? Can it influence opinion? Made-up Minds, by Chris Mooney (THE WEEK magazine, May 20, 2011, Volume 11, Issue originally appeared in Mother Jones). Some beliefs are so rooted in emotions that facts (data?) are often irrelevant. Motivated Reasoning helps explain why groups are still polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal. Which is why using evidence and argument may backfire when attempting to persuade people may actually hold only their views more strongly. Some examples are climate change, abortion, gun control, etc. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts. (based on the research, that is)

20 So if hard data doesn t always sway opinion, and opinions influence public policy, it is doubly important to understand public opinion. But let s not discount or ignore the hard data.

21 We should use both opinions (survey data) and hard data (secondary sources) to understand the complexity of issues in Upstate New York. Some examples

22 Economic Issues

23 Employment/unemployment Unemployment shows significant variation by region. Among the Upstate regions, the North Country posts the highest unemployment as of June 2010, while the Capital Region shows the lowest. All regions report slight declines in unemployment between 2009 and Unemployment Rates by NYS Region, June 2008, 2009, and 2010

24 What is the most important issue in the state and your community? The Economy ranks highest on people s minds, whether employment, taxes, economic issues, etc. At the community level, people are more concerned about employment, and less about taxes, budgets & local government. 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% state community

25 How do you rank these 4 goals of local economic development? 100 Over 60% of respondents identify creating local jobs as most important goal of local economic development Least Important 3rd While the other three goals are ranked equally in terms of most important, 40% of respondents said that reducing poverty was the least important goal creating local jobs increasing tax base reducing poverty improving the quality of life 2nd Most Important

26 Taxes

27 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Local Government Revenue Sources, Upstate NY, Average County Revenues, by source Average City Revenues, by source 100% 90% Other 80% Other Federal Aid 70% Federal Aid 60% State Aid State Aid 50% Charges for Services 40% Charges for Services Other local Sales Tax Property 30% 20% 10% Other local Sales Tax Property 0% Average Town Revenues, by source Average Village Revenues, by source 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other Federal Aid State Aid Charges for Services Other local Sales Tax Property 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other Federal Aid State Aid Charges for Services Other local Sales Tax Property Property taxes account for 18% of City and County revenues, almost 50% of Town revenues, and 30% of Village revenues. Is often viewed as the major tax with the most local control.

28 Specific tax identified as one of the most important issues facing NYS (24%) Property taxes are by far the most frequently cited tax (as an important issue), particularly among those living in non-core counties (50%) Other Income tax All taxes School tax Gas tax Property tax Metropolitan Micropolitan Non Core

29 Support for Property tax caps Levels of support for proposed property tax cap of 2% % of respondents support property tax caps Oppose strongly Oppose somewhat Neutral Support somewhat Support Strongly

30 Support for Property tax caps Levels of support for proposed property tax cap, alone and if local government would need to reduce current level of services When faced with the prospect of generally reduced local services, support for tax caps declines Support or oppose property tax cap of 2%? Support or oppose property tax cap if local services are reduced? Oppose strongly Oppose somewhat Neutral Support somewhat Support Strongly

31 Schools & Taxes

32 School Enrollment Declining Percent Change in Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, NYS by County Type: Between 1997 and 2007 enrollment in Upstate public schools declined by 8% (a decline of more than 92,000 students), compared to a loss of 3.5% for the state as a whole (a decline of more than 98,000 students). Non-core counties lost over 11,000 public school students during this period, a loss of 12.6%. Metropolitan counties lost 55,000 students or a decline of 6.2%. 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% NYS Upstate Metropolitan Micropolitan Non Core As a percentage, declines were even more significant among districts in micropolitan counties, with enrollment declining by 14.6%, a loss of 26,300 students. -12% -14% -16%

Expenditures per pupil increasing Expenditures per pupil 2000 Expenditures per pupil 2008 Upstate New York public school districts are spending an ever increasing amount on their students (New

In 2000, the vast majority of upstate districts spent between $10,000 and $15,000 per pupil. By 2008, most districts were spending significantly more per pupil at a pace far exceeding inflation.

33 Expenditures per pupil increasing Expenditures per pupil 2000 Expenditures per pupil 2008 Upstate New York public school districts are spending an ever increasing amount on their students (New York State has consistently been in the top three of all states in per-pupil spending and led the nation in 2010). In 2000, the vast majority of upstate districts spent between $10,000 and $15,000 per pupil. By 2008, most districts were spending significantly more per pupil at a pace far exceeding inflation. Several district in the Adirondacks were spending more than $30,000 per student, and in two cases were spending about $55,000 per pupil. There is also a cluster of districts in the Sullivan and Ulster County areas that are spending substantially more than the state average per pupil.

34 Support for property tax limits with specific impacts on schools We saw the conditional attitudes on levels of support for the property tax cap Support or oppose property tax cap of 2%? Support or oppose property tax cap if local services are reduced? Oppose strongly Oppose somewhat Neutral Support somewhat Support Strongly

35 Support for property tax limits with specific impacts on schools Support for tax cap declines further when faced with cuts to school budgets Support or oppose property tax cap of 2%? Support or oppose property tax cap if local services are reduced? support of oppose property tax cap if local school budget is cut Oppose strongly Oppose somewhat Neutral Support somewhat Support Strongly

36 Support for property tax limits with specific impacts on schools But there is also significant support to merging neighboring districts if property taxes are reduced Support or oppose property tax cap of 2%? Support or oppose property tax cap if local services are reduced? support of oppose property tax cap if local school budget is cut Support or oppose merging local schools to reduce property tax 0.0 Oppose strongly Oppose somewhat Neutral Support somewhat Support Strongly

37 Poverty

38 Trends in Poverty Rates Percent of People of all ages in poverty Poverty has increased across the board in New York State. Upstate New York s poverty rate increased from about 11 percent in the year 2000 to about 13 percent in New York Upstate Metropolitan Micropolitan Non Core The percent of children in poverty in Upstate has also increased since 2000, to almost 18% in Particularly high rates are noted among non-core and micropolitan county children (around 20%). Percent of Children (<18 yrs) in poverty New York 15 Upstate Metropolitan 10 Micropolitan 5 Non Core

39 Public policies for assisting lower income individuals and families are received with varying degrees of support. Public sentiment towards whether poor people are deserving or not of government assistance often weighs heavily into these levels of support or opposition.

40 Which is the bigger cause of poverty today? 60% of Upstate New Yorkers believe poverty is largely due to circumstances beyond people s control, and 40% believe it is due to poor people not doing enough to help themselves. circumstances beyond one's control poor people not doing enough to help themselves

41 If poverty is due to poor people not doing enough to help themselves, please tell us what you mean Among those believing poverty is caused by poor people not doing enough, the main reasons cited were that poor people are lazy and the abuse of government programs Other Unwilling to take available jobs Lack of education Abuse of govt. programs People are lazy 10 0 Metropolitan Micropolitan Non Core

42 If poverty is due to circumstances beyond poor people s control, please tell us what you mean Lack of jobs, poor economic conditions, and the outsourcing of jobs accounted for the majority of reasons identified why people felt poverty was due to circumstances beyond poor people s control Other Not enough government help Jobs outsourced Poor economic conditions Lack of jobs 10 0 Metropolitan Micropolitan Non Core

43 Issues are often more complex than either the secondary data or the survey data can convey on their own. Best used in combination.

44 We view you, the presenters and participants, as another source of valuable data. Experiences, Perspectives, Practices, Values, Paradigms, Research, Local innovation, etc. Combining these different data and having engaged discussions in our workshops is a major goal of this conference.

45 Intended outcomes of these discussions are strengthened partnerships, examples of local resiliency and innovation, and the identification of future research, policy, and practice.

Demographic Data. Comprehensive Plan

Demographic Data. Comprehensive Plan Comprehensive Plan 2010-2030 4 Demographic Data Population and demographics have changed over the past several decades in the City of Elwood. It is important to incorporate these shifts into the planning