Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

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1 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire Introduction Improving access to quality information through partnership working Over recent years population change in Lincolnshire has been more rapid than in most other areas of the country. The latest 2007 estimates place the county population at 692,800, a 7% increase on the 2001 Census figure, whereas nationally and regionally, increases have been in the region of 4% and 5% respectively. With birth rates and death rates having been fairly static in recent years, inmigration has been the main driver behind this population growth. However population estimates only take into account internal migration and long-stay international in-migration. Better transport links, advances in the way people travel, and the effects of globalisation mean that migrating is no longer the long term life option it once was. Short term migration, in particular economic migration in the search for better paid jobs, has become commonplace. Lincolnshire has experienced an influx of international migrants particularly since the accession of the Eastern European countries to the European Union in As a result the population in the county, particularly in the south, is considered by local partners to be much higher than official figures suggest. Local analysis of migration has been restricted by the lack of up-to-date data at lower geographical areas. As a result 2001 Census data and the NHS Central Register data releases at regional and county level have been relied upon by local partners to provide an indication of what is happening at the local level. This information has shown that in general UK internal migration into Lincolnshire is predominantly from other areas in the East Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber, and from the South East. Demographically, the county has tended to experience a net loss of younger people aged and net gains amongst all other age groups 1. In order to help facilitate a better understanding of both the demographic and social impacts of migration on local communities and cohesion, the Lincolnshire Research Observatory (LRO) was asked to investigate the scale and impact of migration in Lincolnshire. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 1

2 In particular, this project attempted to address the four key issues listed below which were all cited as being of major interest to organisations delivering services within the county: To identify the geographical areas within the county with the highest levels of out-migration and international in-migration. To determine the social impact, if any, on those geographical areas with high migration patterns. To calculate how migration is affecting the age profile of those areas, in particular the proportion that is now aged 65 and over. To produce a monitoring tool that enables partners to track changes and trends in population demographics and movement. This report brings together the findings of this work along with a suggested way forward in terms of monitoring changes in migration in the future Population Projections Consultation This work began with the recent consultation on the 2006 based Office for National Statistics (ONS) subnational population projections. The LRO, on behalf of the Lincolnshire Community Cohesion Partnership, analysed the local GP register population data provided by Lincolnshire Primary Care Trust (PCT), along with both Worker Registration Scheme and National Insurance Registration data, to question the baseline migration data calculated for the annual mid-year estimates. The analysis showed that the GP register placed the county population 2% higher than the corresponding 2007 ONS population projection and that since 2005 this gap has been widening. This figure differed across the districts and was as high as 10% in Boston. On this basis, the levels of population and inmigration projected by the ONS were suggested to be insufficient at both county, and in most cases, district level. Whilst a number of authorities applied this same method, the ONS deemed the analysis to provide insufficient evidence of the need for revising upwards estimates for internal and international migration. The ONS made no changes as a result of these responses. It was noted by the ONS that research was underway into the use of administrative resources for measuring migration. This no doubt a reflection of the recent House of Commons report that concluded that mid-year population estimates are not fit for purpose as they fail to properly account for levels of both internal and international migration 2. Whilst the ONS rejected local GP register data analysis, the Audit Commission has recommended its use by local authorities in understanding their local international migrant population 3. It is still the most up-to-date and 2 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

3 reliable data source the county has on population and has therefore formed a key element of this project work. Access to this data down to post code level has enabled much deeper analysis and understanding of the nature of levels and types migration, and the demographic profiles of migrants. Using GP register data There are a number of caveats around the use of GP register data that must be considered when reading this report: National research has highlighted the fact that young people, in particular males, who are fit and healthy are less likely to register with a GP. This creates the potential for both the under recording of numbers of young people and limits the ability to track their movements. Local research has highlighted the fact that approximately half of those international migrants entering the country to work, register with a GP 4. People do not necessarily register with a GP in their district or even their county. Some people living close to the county border may have registered with a GP outside of the county and therefore will not be present in the GP register data for Lincolnshire. Equally practice areas and post codes do not align to political or administrative boundaries such as the County Council or Local Authority District boundaries. Key Findings The results of this work highlight a number of key issues which could impact on the delivery of local services and these are listed below: Levels of population and in-migration projected by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are insufficient at both county, and in most cases, district level. The GP register places the county population 2% higher than the corresponding 2007 ONS population projection and since 2005 this gap has been widening. This figure differs across the districts and is as high as 10% in Boston. These findings were presented, on behalf of the Lincolnshire Community Cohesion Partnership, to the ONS consultation on the 2006 based sub-national population projections. Whilst the number of working age international migrants is falling, increasing numbers of family members are coming to the county. Both National Insurance (NI) and Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) data show falling numbers in those registering in the county from overseas, a fact supported by the GP register. However, whilst showing a fall in the proportion over time of working age international migrants coming to the county, the GP register shows that the numbers of those of school age and retirement age Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 3

4 has been on the increase since 2004/5. Further indications of this trend can be seen in the numbers of international migrant s children in schools. The average age of people moving to the county is lower than the average age of people residing in the county. Between 2001/2 and 2007/8 the average age of county residents increased from 41 years to 41.9 years. Without the effects of migration the average age would have been 42.1 years. This is due to the average age of migrants being lower than the average age of county residents. This is most likely a result of the growing influence of the University of Lincoln and the recent number of young eastern Europeans entering the county to work. There has been a large increase in the average age of in-migrants moving to the coastal area with the result that there is a clear east/west divide in the county in terms of areas where above average age residents and those aged 65+ tend to reside. These areas are concentrated along the coast, in South East Lincolnshire, and around the central and North Lincolnshire towns and their hinterlands. These same areas also tend to have very low levels of out-migration, whilst their distribution across the county has changed very little between 2001 and This implies that these areas are becoming both older and are popular destinations for older in-migrants. There are three key areas in Lincolnshire where out-migration has been consistently high. These areas have been identified in and around the University of Lincoln (yearly turnover of students), RAF bases (regular turnover of personnel and families), and areas on the coast (a result of seasonal employment and the presence of caravan sites). Whilst there are no clear links between levels of out-migration in an area and residents views on levels of community cohesion, levels of crime, Anti- Social Behaviour or deprivation, there appears to be however, a correlation between high international migration and lower than average levels of community cohesion. 4 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

5 The Changing Demographic of Lincolnshire Previous analysis of the county population has highlighted the fact that older people (aged 65+) are making up an increasingly larger proportion of the county population, whilst the proportion of younger people (aged 0-19) has declined 5. Population projections show that this trend is likely to continue. What this analysis was unable to determine were the specific areas in the county where this was happening, and overall what the demographic effect on the county was. The changing demographic of the county is an important issue to consider as it raises a number of challenges both now and in the future for the delivery of services. An ageing population places an increased strain on a number of services, in particular health, making it essential to understand where these age groups are moving too and settling in. It also increases the age of the working age population ensuring that numbers of retirees from the workforce becomes an issue. This places a strain on employers in terms of replacing skills particularly when the county is a net exporter of its young people. In order to better understand the demographic effects of migration on the county, the average age of the county GP registered populous was calculated for both 2001 and 2007 from the GP register. This analysis revealed that over that time period the average (mean) age of a county resident increased from 41.0 years to 41.9 years. This is higher than the average (mean) age of the national population calculated by ONS which was placed at 39.6 years in What is not clear from these figures is the role migration has played in changing the average age the population, and what can be attributed to natural change i.e. birth and mortality rates. To answer this at the local level, a scenario of zero migration was established. This scenario involves taking the GP registered population in 2001 and ageing all the county residents on it by 6 years. Birth and mortality figures for the period 2001 to 2006 were then taken into account. As detailed information on the ages of the people who died during that period was not available, the proportions of deaths during 2007 across a range of age groups were applied to the population. This zero migration scenario revealed that the county population would have naturally aged over the time period by 1.1 years from 41.0 years to 42.1 years. The effect of migration was therefore to reduce the average age of the county by 0.2 years. Whilst analysis of in and out migrants showed that the average age of people moving to the county has over a number of years been consistently higher than people moving out, the average ages of migrants in general has been consistently lower than the average age of a county resident. This is most likely a result of the growing influence of the University of Lincoln and the recent number of young eastern Europeans entering the county to work. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 5

6 Map 1 below shows those areas where the effects of migration have been least apparent. Areas along the coast, in central Lincolnshire, and towards the south of the county show above average ages of residents. When those areas with above average proportions of people aged 65 and over are mapped it also shows a similar pattern. Analysis of 2001 GP register data shows very little difference to 2007 in terms of the distribution of above average age residents. Map 1: Average Age of Areas in Lincolnshire, 2007 Above Average Below Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Lincolnshire County Council Levels of Out-migration in Lincolnshire It has been established that population movements are impacting on the county. In order to understand the driving forces and the levels of movement in the county, GP register data concerning out-migrants for the period 2001/2 to 2007/8 was analysed at Super Output Area (SOA) level. Whilst data on in-migration to the county was analysed as part of this study, in order to ascertain whether a relationship exists between migration and other social factors, out-migration data has formed the bulk of the analysis. This is due to the fact that areas of high in-migration are heavily influenced by new 6 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

7 housing builds, preventing the measurement of the full influence of other factors which may impact on migration. Each SOA was assigned a ranking based on the out-migration movements of its populous over that time period. Areas which experienced consistently high levels of out-migration compared to the rest of the county were ranked 1, whilst those areas where it has been consistently low were ranked 4. Map 2: Out-migration in Lincolnshire 2001/2 2007/8 Rank 1 - Highest Levels of Out-migration Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 - Lowest Levels of Out-migration Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Lincolnshire County Council Map 2 shows that the majority of the county is characterised by areas where out-migration is low (Rank 4 areas) with levels of out-migration increasing the closer you get to the edge of the county. Throughout this central area though are pockets of high out-migration (Rank 1) areas located in Lincoln City, Waddington, Coningsby, Digby and Ingoldmells. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 7

8 Figure 1 below shows how levels of out-migration are impacting demographically on these areas across the county. Whilst the average age of Rank 4 area residents is above the county average and increasing, Rank 1 areas have the lowest average age of residents in the county and are the only areas where it is decreasing. Figure 1: Average age and proportion of 65+ by out-migration rank of area % of Total Average Age of Proportion of 65+ Area Population Resident (years) (%) Rank Rank Rank Rank Lincolnshire Average The proportion of residents aged 65 years and over is below the county average in Rank 1 areas, and both Rank 1 and 2 areas have seen a fall in the proportion these people make up of the resident population. As the population of the county has increased over the period, the fact that the percentage of the total population in these areas has stayed close to that of 2001 would suggest that in general, people aged below the county average moving in rather than older people moving out of these areas is the main cause of this. Rank 3 areas appear to be relatively stable with residents whose average age is close to that of the county average and no change in the proportions of those aged 65 years and over. The existence of Rank 1 or high out-migration areas can in part be explained by the employers, institutions and facilities that are present within, or in close proximity to, these areas. The pockets of high out-migration in the centre of the county are a result of the RAF bases and colleges sited in these areas, namely Waddington, Coningsby and Digby. The high levels seen here reflect the high levels of movement of armed forces employees. Census statistics demonstrate clearly the transient nature of life in the armed forces, in which a third of the population change their address each year 7. High population churn in the centre of Lincoln City can be explained by the presence of the University of Lincoln. The student population changes on an annual basis, and whilst some graduates will remain in the county, the majority leave the area to pursue higher skilled and higher paid jobs outside of the county. The area highlighted on the coast around Ingoldmells has a high concentration of caravan parks and as a result contains a highly mobile population. The seasonal nature of employment on the coast will also be a factor in migration patterns in this area of the county. 8 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

9 Figure 2 below presents further analysis of those areas with significantly above average levels of out-migration (Rank 1). It reveals that the fall in the average age of these areas is a result of the influence of Lincoln City, with areas in central Lincolnshire and on the coast both showing an increase in the average age of residents. Figure 2: Average (mean) age of residents, and average (modal) age of out and in-migrants (excluding children 0-15) in Rank 1 out-migration areas Rank 1 Area Average Age (mean) of resident (years) Average Age (mode) of Outmigrant (years) Average Age (mode) of Inmigrant (years) Lincoln City Central Lincolnshire East Coast Lincolnshire Average The age profile of Lincoln City in and out-migrants sits well with the assumption that movement here is primarily driven by students. The age profiles of in and out migrants in the central Lincolnshire areas are most likely a result of service personnel being stationed in and posted away from these areas. Further analysis shows that these service personnel and partners have young families accompanying them, with their children generally aged between 1 and 5 years old. Analysis of the high out-migration area on the east coast reveals a dramatic ageing of in-migrants to the area over the time period whilst out-migrants have tended to be much younger. At the county level, modal average ages of in and out migrants show the strong influence on migration patterns of both national targets for higher education participation rates amongst younger people, and locally the presence of the University of Lincoln. Levels of International In-migration into Lincolnshire International in-migration into Lincolnshire is not a recent phenomenon, yet the scale of change in numbers of international in-migrants into Lincolnshire (particularly since the accession of a further 8 countries to the European Union in 2004) has brought this issue to prominence both locally and nationally. Boston and South Holland in particular have been placed in the top 5 local authorities nationally for A8 citizens registered per thousand of the total population 8. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 9

10 International migration poses a number of challenges for an area receiving large numbers of international migrants. The lack of information on both definitive numbers and movement presents a clear challenge to any organisation providing a service to the populous within its borders. Local Authority budgets are dictated by population numbers and therefore an unaccounted for population or community can place a strain on resources. Although a range of national datasets exist, such as National Insurance (NI) registrations and the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS), it has long been recognised that they do not tell the whole story and are therefore considered inadequate for monitoring change at a local level. The latest figures on NI registrations for overseas nationals show that 7,140 international in-migrants registered in Lincolnshire during 2007/8 9. Overall, this was a decline on last years county figure (7,780 registrations), though Boston and South Holland districts both experienced increases. With 2,160 of these registrations in Boston alone, based on the ONS 2007 population estimate of 58,400 people, this represents nearly a 4% increase in one year. Not every international migrant registers for NI contributions. Those who come here to study will not register unless for part time work, whilst other international migrants particularly older ones will come into the country to assist family already here with childcare and again will not be required to register. The use of the GP register in tracking international migrant movements offers up new and improved data down to post code level though it is not without its own limitations. A recent local survey of 692 international migrants in South Lincolnshire found that only 53% of them had registered with a GP 10. Those that had not were instead choosing to access Accident & Emergency services as and when required. This points to the possibility of a significant undercount in the GP register data of international migrants. The fact that the majority of international migrant workers are generally young, fit and healthy means that only a small proportion of international migrants access these services, limiting the capture of information on their stay in the country (on average only approximately 50 people a year in Lincolnshire access the A&E service or have a hospital episode that are not registered with a GP). Whilst the NI and WRS data normally highlight Boston and South Holland as popular destination areas for international in-migrants, GP register data tells a different story. Referring to figure 3, analysis of the GP register shows that Lincoln received the most international migrants during 2007/8, possibly a reflection of the influence of the University of Lincoln in attracting overseas students (1,035 non UK nationals were studying at the university during 2006/7). Overall, whilst the NI data shows a reduction in numbers registering in the county, the GP register data shows that all districts apart from South Holland experienced their largest influx of international migrants during 2007/8. 10 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

11 Figure 3: International in-migration by District 2006/7 2007/8 No. of International Migrants /7 2007/8 Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey Locally the GP register, more often than not, also records international migrant in-flows as being higher than those recorded by NI registrations. Figure 4 below shows that GP registrations by overseas nationals has been higher than the corresponding NI registrations figure for every year apart from those immediately after the accession of the 8 eastern European countries to the European Union. Figure 4: Numbers of NI and GP registrations between 2002/3 and 2007/ No. of registrations NI registrations GP registrations 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 As NI registrations capture only those that are registering here to work, the GP register data shows increased numbers of family members coming to join workers already established here. This is supported by the fact that the GP register shows a fall in the proportion over time of working age international migrants coming to the county, whilst the proportions of those of school age and retirement age has been on the increase since 2004/5. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 11

12 Whilst figure 5 shows that in-migration from Poland into the county is strong, it also highlights the problems with the data in that large proportions of international migrants have country of origins that are unidentifiable or unknown, particularly in East and West Lindsey. This is a result of insufficient or incorrect country of origin information being recorded as part of the GP registration process. There were variations in the top 8 countries across the districts. 2% of international in-migrants to Lincoln were from South Africa, whilst North Kesteven was a popular destination for in-migrants from the USA, Zimbabwe and Cyprus. South Kesteven was the only district to experience a high number of Hungarian in-migrants during 2007/8 (5% of all international inmigrants). Mapping levels of international in-migration (Map 3) shows that it has not been uniform across the county. Large areas of the county have either experienced very low numbers of international migrants or in some cases have seen a decline in numbers. Areas in Boston and South Holland (in particular Spalding) have experienced consistently high numbers of international inmigrants. These areas are known to have received large numbers of Portuguese migrant s pre 2004 and Eastern Europeans (mainly Polish) post Map 3: International in-migration in Lincolnshire 2001/2 2007/8 High Consistently Increase since 2001 Increase since 2004 Increase since 2007 Low Decline Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Lincolnshire County Council Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

13 Figure 5: Proportion of GP registrations (2007/8) by overseas nationals from the most popular countries coming into the county by district Lincolnshire East Lindsey Country Undefined Poland Lithuania Germany Latvia Portugal India China Rest of the World Boston Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 13

14 Map 3 goes on to show that a number of areas in the county have experienced an influx of international migrants since It would appear that recently international migrant workers have been moving north in the county, up from Boston and South Holland and into East Lindsey and West Lindsey, in the search for work. Interviews with people at the forefront of delivering services, and who therefore make the most regular contact with international migrants, revealed a number of anecdotal trends which subsequently have been analysed against the GP register data. These interviews also highlighted a number of issues, both positive and negative, resulting from international migration which were being experienced in the county. These included: Growing school populations Whilst some schools across the county are facing closure or merger due to falling numbers of children, schools in Boston and South Holland have reported increases in school numbers to the point that some are now full. As a result though schools can find it difficult to resource and cater for the educational needs of international migrant children. For example, children who do not speak English as their first language may initially require interpreter services. Alternatively, settling in to new surroundings and getting to grips with a different curriculum may place more of a requirement on teacher s time in the classroom. Racial incidences in schools Records show that on average only 3 incidences were recorded each year between April 2000 and March This figure has increased though with 47 and 77 incidences being reported in 2005/06 and 2006/07 respectively which could be as a result of the growing presence of children of international migrant workers in county schools. The changing demographic of international in-migrants Analysis of the GP register data for international in-migrants shows that those coming to the county from Eastern European countries are on average younger than those from Portugal. Whilst the numbers of migrants from Portugal has reduced, service providers have indicated that those coming to the county now from Portugal are the parents or grandparents of international migrant workers already settled here and will most likely provide childcare support on arrival. Indications are that international migrants are also starting families in this country. Boston in particular has seen a rapid increase in its fertility rate since 2003, and is currently amongst the top ten authorities nationally for high fertility. In 2006, over 19% of births in Boston were to women born outside the UK Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

15 The presence of migrant workers from the A2 countries This is the first full year that Romania and Bulgaria can be counted among the EU Accession countries, joining the EU from the 1st January However, the expected surge in registrations from these countries does not seem to have affected Lincolnshire. Neither GP registration data nor the latest National Insurance registration data show significant numbers entering the county since the beginning of Whilst it is difficult to predict whether the county will experience increases in numbers in the future, national studies predict that numbers will be lower than those experienced from the A8 countries. This will be due to both a lack of established migratory links (unlike with Poland) and the fact that countries such as France, Italy and Spain are a more attractive prospect as they have a similar languages to that of Romania 12. Migrants returning to their country of origin Whilst GP de-registration data is available doubts have been raised as to its accuracy and reliability. The figures provided by the PCT show that there were 16,599 deregistrations in total in the period 2001/2 to 2007/8 (compared to 39,913 registrations over the same period) and that these have increased over time (Figure 6). Figure 6: International migrant GP registrations and de-registrations No. of International Migrants GP de-registrations GP registrations /2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 Service providers are reporting that a lot of the Portuguese migrants have now returned home. Those that remain here have effectively settled in the county. Interviews with Citizens Advice Bureaux staff revealed that Portuguese migrants who were using the service were now experiencing problems similar to those of the indigenous population e.g. debt. Conversely, Eastern Europeans accessing the service were seeking help with problems related to recent arrival in the country such as housing and work related issues. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 15

16 A number of organisations commented that they had experienced a rise in the number of eastern European migrants stating that they were returning home. The Polish economy is performing better now than it was in and there have been reports of adverts being placed encouraging Polish workers to return home and fill jobs. As part of this study, NI deregistration data (showing numbers leaving the country and claiming back tax and national insurance contributions effectively short term stay migrants) was sought in order to compare it with the GP de-registrations. A Freedom of Information request for this data was made to the Department for Work and Pensions but the information was refused on the basis that it was unavailable. The impact of international migrant workers in the labour market Figure 7 below shows that whilst unemployment levels have increased since the A8 countries joined the EU (though not necessarily as a result of); the unemployment rate in Lincolnshire has consistently remained below that of the regional and national rates. Figure 7: Unemployment rate over time 3.0 Unemployment Rate (%) Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 UK EM Lincolnshire Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Locally, rates of international migrant workers (as measured by NI registrations) as a proportion of those in employment are not dissimilar to national rates (Figure 8). The fact that Lincolnshire has proved a popular destination in the East Midlands for international migrant workers is shown in the differences between local and regional rates of international migrant workers. Boston and South Holland districts, along with Lincoln City, again show particular high proportions (relative to county and national rates) of international migrant workers compared to the total numbers of those employed in the area. 16 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

17 Figure 8: NI registrations as a percentage of those in employment, 2006/7 No. in employment NI registrations % of those in employment Boston 26,200 2, East Lindsey 54, Lincoln 43,200 1, North Kesteven 47, South Holland 36,300 1, South Kesteven 58,600 1, West Lindsey 42, Lincolnshire 308,600 7, East Midlands 2,054,400 40, UK 27,747, , Analysis of Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) data shows that post 2004, workers arriving in the county from the A8 countries were most likely to register for work in the agricultural and manufacturing industries (48% of WRS applicants between May 2004 and April 2006). Figure 9 below shows that over time, positions within administration, business and managerial services have become increasingly popular and now form over half of all WRS applicants on a regular basis. Figure 9: WRS applicants by top 5 sectors over time % of all Lincolnshire WRS applicants Sector May 2004 Mar 2006 Apr 2006 Mar 2007 Apr 2007 Mar 2008 Admin, Business & Managerial Services Agriculture Manufacturing (inc. food) Hospitality & Catering Transport Please note not all sectors shown so percentages do not sum to 100% Latest data on benefits claimants shows that nationally, whilst numbers of international migrant workers registering for NI in the country have increased over time, the proportion of these claiming out-of-work benefits has dropped from 12.5% in 2002/3 to 2.9% in 2006/7 14. The Social Effects of Migration in Lincolnshire A number of social datasets were considered as part of the study to determine whether there were any links between high levels of population change (both out-migration and international in-migration) and social cohesion. A recent report by the Commons Communities and Local Government Committee 15 concluded that rapid immigration damages community relations. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 17

18 In the study, community cohesion was measured by the percentage of people who believe people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area. This indicator is measured through the national Citizenship Survey and as a Best Value Performance Indicator, is reported on by all local authorities. The study found that nationally there was no straightforward relationship between migration and levels of cohesion. Areas could experience high levels of migration (both internal and international migration) and yet residents still felt that community cohesion was high. Figure 10 shows that local level analysis mirrors the national findings with Boston district, for example, experiencing a county average level of migration yet residents felt that levels of community cohesion were much lower than the county average. When levels of international migration are broken out separately it does show that the districts of Boston and South Holland have had the highest number of international migrants registering with a GP per 1,000 of the population and also have the lowest levels of community cohesion. Figure 10: Levels of Community Cohesion and GP Registrations 2006/ Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey Lincolnshire % of people who believe people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area 2006/7 No. of new GP registrations per 1,000 of the population 2006/07 No. of new international GP registrations per 1,000 of the population 2006/07 Comparing data on deprivation and high levels of migration presented no clear relationship between the two. Whilst some of those areas that exhibited high out-migration are classed as deprived (referring to the Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2007) they were the exception rather than the rule. This finding is backed up by a recent national report which looked at the correlation between deprivation and population turnover 16 and found that it was neighbourhood demographics rather than neighbourhood deprivation that determined population turnover. The highest turnover was in areas with concentrations of young adults (aged 19-29) and households with very young children (aged 0-4). 18 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

19 Figure 11 shows local level analysis of the age groups highlighted by this national study. In part it supports the national findings with the proportion of year olds in high out-migration areas being over 3 times the county average. Analysis of the proportion of 0-4 year olds in these areas though was inconclusive. Figure 11: Proportions of 0-4 and year olds by rank of area Area Proportion of 0-4 year olds (%) Proportion of year olds (%) Rank Rank Rank Rank Lincolnshire Average UK Average Use of Mosaic data, in particular information collected on how people view their neighbourhoods, demonstrated that in areas of high out-migration (Rank 1 and Rank 2 areas) and international in-migration, residents were more likely to view their neighbourhood as a bad place to live (Map 4). Map 4: Residents more likely to view neighbourhood as a bad place to live Significantly above average Average Below Average Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Lincolnshire County Council Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 19

20 Levels of Anti-Social Behaviour and incidences of crime also showed no evidence of any clear relationship with high levels of population movement, with the data only serving to highlight those areas in the county with high population density. % Monitoring Change A Way Forward In carrying out the work for this project a number of issues became apparent that if addressed, could improve the county knowledge base on migration and its impacts. They were as follows: Accurate recording of country of origin information The accuracy of international migrant s country of origin information in the GP register was brought into question due to the large proportion of those whose country of origin was unidentifiable from the records. Figure 12: International in-migrants whose country of origin is undefined or unknown as a proportion of all international in-migrants over time /2 Q1 2001/2 Q3 2002/3 Q1 2002/3 Q3 2003/4 Q1 2003/4 Q3 2004/5 Q1 2004/5 Q3 2005/6 Q1 2005/6 Q3 2006/7 Q1 2006/7 Q3 2007/8 Q1 2007/8 Q3 Figure 12 above shows significant fluctuations in the accuracy of data over time. The fall in proportion from quarter /05 onwards suggests a drive in accurate record producing by the PCT in response to the in-migration from the A8 countries. Since quarter /06 the proportion has increased suggesting a relaxation of or a change in the recording procedure or those responsible for collecting the data. This could also be the result of a rise in the number of international migrants from unfamiliar countries as opposed to Poland and Portugal. More accurate information in this area would certainly give a better picture of what is happening on the ground, particularly in East and West Lindsey where the numbers of the unidentified migrants were high in 2007/08 (72% and 63% respectively). 20 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

21 Up to date and easily accessible Information on new house builds The lack of this information meant that as part of this project, the impacts of in-migration could not be analysed in the same detail that out-migration was in terms of comparing with social datasets. Access to this information would enable a better understanding of the effects of population churn on the county down to low geographical levels. More detailed international migrant de-registration data The fact that the PCT are able to derive detailed international in-migration data would suggest that with more time and resources, the production of deregistration data of similar quality would also be a possibility. With the current lack of an out-migration data source (NI de-registration information has been refused by the DWP and the WRS only tracks inward movement), more information in this area would help in understanding why people of different nationalities move away from the county. A count of registered international migrants in the county Closer working with the PCT in arriving at a GP registered international migrant population in the county at a given point in time and provided at geographies useful to service providers would be invaluable. The LRO understands that this work is currently in progress with results expected to be produced as part of the Director of Public Health Annual Report. Partnership lobbying approach to the DWP for access to National Insurance de-registration information A joined-up partnership approach between those local authorities most affected by international migration to lobby for the release or production of statistics relating to those de-registering for National Insurance. Whilst this will still not give a complete picture of movements of short term international migrants it will at least add to other data sources and our knowledge on this issue. County co-ordination and on-going maintenance of the Migration Impact Monitoring Tool One of the key issues identified through interviews with individuals and organisations was the lack of local data on migration issues that is both easily accessible and maintained with up-to-date data. In order to do this, the Lincolnshire Research Observatory has created a simple tool that enables the user to track changes in population, both in terms of internal movements and of international migrants, down to a low level. The key demographic issues and trends that have been analysed as part of this report are also presented. Analysis of the local GP register and its ability to monitor movement and change down to post code level has formed the backbone of this project. Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 21

22 Assistance from the PCT in sourcing and providing this data has been pivotal in enabling this. Whilst the limitations of the GP register have been outlined earlier in this report it is still the best method available for tracking changes in the local population on a regular basis. The PCT have confirmed that this data can be provided on a quarterly basis. This could be made available, along with other relevant information, via the monitoring tool which local authorities and partner organisations can access to keep abreast of issues and developments in their locality. Examples of relevant information that could augment the GP register data include: information from the Citizens Advice Bureaux on the international migrants accessing their services; schools pupil language data (PLASC) library usage data The latest version of the monitoring tool, entitled Migration Impact Tool, is available to use via accessing the Lincolnshire Research Observatory The tool is located is under Interactive Maps in the Other LRO Tools section. 22 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire

23 References 1 Migration Patterns in Lincolnshire, Lincolnshire Research Observatory, 2 House of Commons Select Committee on Treasury Eleventh Report The Dynamics of Migrant Labour in the South Lincolnshire Economy, Zaronaite and Tirzite, South Holland District Council Lincolnshire A changing and challenging landscape, Lincolnshire Research Observatory, 6 ONS News Release UK population set to increase to 65 million over the next ten years Office for National Statistics 7 Mosaic data, Experian 8 Migrants from central and eastern Europe: local geographies, Population Trends No 129 Autumn 2007, Office for National Statistics 9 National Insurance Registrations , Lincolnshire Research Observatory, 10 The Dynamics of Migrant Labour in the South Lincolnshire Economy, Zaronaite and Tirzite, South Holland District Council Population Trends No.133 Autumn 2008, Office for National Statistics 12 Floodgates or turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK, Pollard et al, ippr Soaring pay lures Poles back home, BBC News, 14 National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals entering the UK:Summary Tables, Department for Work and Pensions, 15 Community Cohesion and Migration House of Commons, Communities and Local Government Committee, Tenth Report of Session Population turnover and area deprivation, Bailey & Livingston, Joseph Rowntree Foundation 2007 Population Patterns in Lincolnshire 23