Armenia National Voter Study

Transcription

1 Armenia National Voter Study July 007 International Republican Institute, Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization, Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development

2 INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This national voter survey was conducted on July -, 007.,00 Armenian residents aged 8 years and older were interviewed face-to-face. The margin of error does not exceed three percent. The survey was carried out on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization (Dr. R. Alisauskiene). The fieldwork was carried out by the Armenian Sociological Association.

3 MOOD OF THE COUNTRY

4 Mood of the country: % of Armenians think that the country is on the wrong track, while 8% think that the country is going in the right direction Do you think that things in Armenia are going in the... Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer July March November August May

5 Mood of the country: % of Armenians see improvement in the country s economy, while 7% think it is declining Over the last three months, the economic situation in Armenia has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer July March November August May

6 Mood of the country: % of Armenians say their household s financial situation has improved, while 7% say it has declined Over the last three months, the financial situation of your household has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer July March November August May

7 Mood of the country: 0% of Armenians are satisfied with the development of democracy, while 6% are not How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA July March November August May

8 Mood of the country: An overall majority of Armenians think that it will take a long time to improve things in their country Do you believe that things will get better in a short time, or will it take a long time for things to get better in the country? Short time Long time Not sure/refused July March November August May

9 Mood of the Nation: Expectations No answer Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future 0 Apathy Not much hope for the future Hope that the future will be somewhat better July 007 March 007 November August 006 May 006 Belief that the future will be definitely better 9

10 Mood of the Nation Optimism Neutral Pessimism July March November August May

11 Over the last year attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia has become: DK/NA More pessimistic Stayed the same More optimistic July 007 March 007 November 006 August 006 May 006

12 ISSUES

13 Most important issues facing Armenia July 007 (%) Unemployment 0 Social-economic situation 0 Problem of Nagorno Karabakh* 6 Corruption 8 Development of the economy, industry 6 Migration 9 Foreign policy Recognition of genocide Implementation of laws First mention Educational issues, culture All mentions Democracy, respect for human rights Other 7 DK/NA 0 0 * Between Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in military conflict for possession of this disputed territory

14 Most important issue facing towns/villages in Armenia July 007 (%) Unemployment 6 Social-economic problems 7 Transport, road improvement Ecology Culture, sport 6 0 Development of economy /industry/agriculture 9 Implementation of laws Migration Corruption First mention All mentions Other DK/NA

15 Most important issue facing households in Armenia July 007 (%) Social-economic situation 7 Unemployment 6 Housing, communal problems 9 Education, healthcare 0 Migration Military service, conscription Other First mention All mentions DK/NA

16 Acceptability of Forms of Social Protest July 007 (%) Legal demonstrations 76 Legal strikes 68 0 Collecting signatures for petition, letter Boycott 6 Demonstrations without permission 6 Strikes without permission 7 7 Occupation of buildings or enterprises 8 Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion 6

17 People s Fears July 007 (%) Civil war Problem of Nagorno Karabakh Social-economic situation Unemployment Migration Corruption Healthcare Uncertainty regarding the future Natural disaster Lack of recognition of the genocide First mention All mentions Turkish economic blockade Other DK/NA

18 POLITICS 8

19 What should the Armenian government accomplish first to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? July 007 (%) Create jobs 7 Increase salaries, pensions 7 Develop economy 8 6 Solve problem of Nagorno Karabakh 7 Fulfill promises 6 8 Increase democracy 6 9 Fight corruption Improve educational and healthcare systems Foreign and internal policy Solve migration problem 6 8 First mention All mentions DK/NA 9

20 Interest in Politics (%) Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA July March November August May

21 Do you plan on voting in the next presidential elections? Definitely no % Have not decided yet % DK/NA % Definitely yes % Probably no 8% Probably yes %

22 When considering which party to vote for, what is more important? Leader is more important Party is more important None No answer July March November August May

23 All other things equal, would vote for: More active, younger candidate More experienced, older Does not matter No answer July March 007 November August 006 May

24 All other things equal, would vote for: Male Female Does not matter No answer July March November August May

25 Major mistakes and failures of Armenian authorities over the last year: July 007 (%) 0 Did not fight enough against corruption 8 Did not prevent rise of prices 9 Sale of state assets Economic issues 7 Lack of attention to people Not fulfilling promises Migration First mention Educational system All mentioned Falsification of the 00 constitutional referendum Not solving the problem of Nagorno Karabakh Ignoring laws Legislative changes Not returning bank deposits Foreign and internal policy Other DK/NA 9 9

26 The wrongdoing and corruption of political leaders and authorities is (%) Very serious problem Rather serious problem Not very serious problem Not a problem at all DK/NA July March November August May

27 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 7

28 Evaluation of relations with July 007 (%) Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 98 Iran 8 European Union 80 0 USA Georgia 8 7 Turkey 8 7 Azerbaijan

29 International Relations: Partners and Threats July 007 (%) Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? And which comprise the greatest political and economic threat? Partners Threats Russia France European Union Iran USA Georgia Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA 9

30 How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future? Is it (%) Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA July March November August May % 0% 0% 60% 80% 00% 0

31 Thinking about the future of Nagorno Karabakh, do you think it should (%) July 007 March 007 November 006 August 006 May Be an ordinary region of Armenia, without any autonomy Be an autonomous region of the Armenian state Be an independent country Be a part of Azerbaijan DK/NA

32 Do you think that the current situation in regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh should be resolved through negotiations and peaceful means, or should some force be used if necessary? (%) July March November August May Negotiations and peaceful means Using force if necessary DK/NA

33 Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA July March November August May

34 In your opinion, does the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia have a positive or negative influence on Armenian independence and stability in the country? Positive influence Neither positive nor negative Both positive and negative Negative influence DK/NA July March November August May

35 Should the government of Armenia agree to open the border for trade, etc., with Turkey even if the Turkish government does not recognize the genocide? Should open the border regardless Should not open the border DK/NA July 007 March 007 November August May

36 Do you have friends or relatives working abroad? Yes No July March November August May

37 Do you personally benefit from remittances being sent from friends or relatives working abroad? (Those who have friends or relatives abroad, %) Yes No July 007 (N=690) March 007 (N=796) 8 November 006 (N=797) 6 August 006 (N=780) May 006 (N=77)

38 Which countries are your relatives working in? (Those who have relatives/friends working abroad (N=690)) July 007 (%) Russia 6 USA France 6 Germany Belgium Iran Spain Australia Poland England Scotland Other DK/NA 8

39 Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? (%) Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA July March November August May

40 Should Armenia in the future July 007 (%) Join NATO 0 Join the European Union Remain a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States 9 Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA 0

41 INSTITUTIONS

42 Confidence In Institutions: July 007 (%) European Union 8 Army 80 9 United Nations Organization 79 7 Commonwealth of Independent States 77 0 Church 76 9 Armenian media 68 9 Oorganization for Security and Cooperation in Europe NATO Educational system President's office Central Bank 9 0 Police 6 Government (Cabinet of Ministers) 6 Political parties 6 Armenian Parliament 6 Favorable Unfavorable No opinion

43 SITUATION OF SOME SOCIAL GROUPS IN ARMENIA

44 Please say about each social group, whether the needs of this social group are considered in Armenia or not? July 007 (%) Youth 0 Elderly 0 Women 8 Disabled 8 War veterans 6 Refugees Considered Partially Not considered at all DK/NA

45 Prevailing attitude of Armenian population towards disabled persons in Armenia (%) July March Very positive Rather positive Rather negative Very negative DK/NA

46 In your opinion, do disabled people in Armenia have adequate access to social services or not? (%) DK/NA July March 007 The majority of disabled people have no adequate access to social services Only some services are accessable for disabled people in Armenia The majority of social services are accessable for disabled people in Armenia 6

47 Who should care for the needs of disabled people and solve their problems first? (%) Government of Armenia 9 97 Nongovernmental organizations 76 8 Local government 7 87 Family members, relatives 7 9 Political parties July 007 Other 0 March 007 7

48 Please speak about each of the following groups, do they take care of the needs and problems of the disabled in Armenia or not? July 007 (%) Family members, relatives 9 Nongovernmental organizations Government of Armenia 0 9 Political parties 0 6 Local government Yes No DK/NA 8

49 Institutions, organizations, nongovernmental organizations who care for the needs and problems of the disabled in Armenia. July 007 (%) Armenian Red Cross society Paros Pyunik United Nations Huysi Kamurj Oksifarm Unison UNICEF United States Agency for International Development Other 6 None 69 9

50 In your opinion, do the disabled in Armenia have adequate possibilities for active participation in the political life of Armenia or not? (%) July March Yes, have all possibilities Yes, have some possibilities No, have no possibilities DK/NA 0

51 In your opinion, do disabled members of society in Armenia face challenges in finding employment opportunities or not? July 007 (%) Yes, they have some difficulties 0% No, they do not have difficulties % DK/NA % Yes, they have major difficulties finding jobs 7%

52 In your opinion, do those people who use wheelchairs have adequate access to public places? July 007 (%) DK/NA % Yes, they have a adequate access in the majority of places % No, they do not have adequate access in the majority of places % Yes, they have access in some places 6%

53 Do those members of society who are disabled face challenges in seeking higher education? July 007 (%) No, they do not have difficulties % DK/NA % Yes, they have major difficulties in getting higher education % Yes, they have some difficulties %

54 HEROES OF OUR TIMES

55 Heroes For Our Times Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present? (Open-ended ended question, %) July Vazgen Sargssyan Andranik Karen Demirchyan Tigran Metz Vardan Mamikonyan Garegin Njdeh Dro Monte Melkonyan Andranik Magaryan Mesrop Mastoc Marshal Baghramyan Sayat-Nova Davit Bek Other None DK/NA

56 Tolerance July 007 (%) It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions 7 68 Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups 7 9 In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to these minority groups must give up such parts of their religion or culture which may be in conflict with Armenian tradition 0 7 Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities we would have problems 8 9 Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted members of Armenian society depends on which group they belong to 7 Tend to agree Tend to disagree DK/NA 6

57 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7

58 Sources of Political Information (%) TV - news, programs Articles in newspapers Radio - news, programs Relatives, friends Meetings with politicians Billboards, streetsigns Articles in magazines Internet Colleagues at work Leaflets, and other free information by post July 007 March 007 November 006 8

59 Sources in Election Campaign July 007 (%) Meetings with politicians Meetings with/opinions of respected people TV ads Personal letters to you from the candidate Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home Articles in newspapers about the candidates Paid ads in the media for the candidate or party 7 0 Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate 0 Leaflets Radio ads 6 7 Billboards 7 7 Slogans, texts on public transportion 0 7 Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA 9

60 Recall of communication means used during the last Parliamentary Election campaign (%) TV ads Leaflets 9 Articles in newspapers about the candidates 6 67 Meetings with politicians you participated in Slogans, texts on public transportion Paid ads in media for the candidate or party 9 8 July 007 March 007 November

61 Recall of communication means used during the last Parliamentary Election campaign (%) Billboards Radio ads Meetings with popular people you participated in Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate 6 July 007 March 007 Personal letters to you from the candidate 6 November 006 6

62 In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA July March November August May

63 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS 6

64 Gender Male 7% Female % 0+ % Age groups 8-9 7% 0-9 % 6

65 Unfinished higher % University, higher 9% Education Primary % Unfinished secondary % Vocational % Secondary % Five 6% Household size Six % Seven and more 7% One % Four 7% Three % Two % 6

66 Sector of Employment Nongovernmental 0% Don't work 6% State % Private 9% Member of a nongovernmental organization % Member of a party 0% Membership in Organizations None 89% 66

67 Religion None % Other % Other Christian % Yezidi 0% Armenian Apostolic 97% Attendance of religious service Once a month % Once a week 7% A few times a week % Every Day % Never % A few times per year % 67

68 Type of settlement Capital 6% Rural % Towns 0% Regions Yerevan 6% West-Center 0% South 6% North % East 7% 68