AGRARIAN COMMUNITIES AGRARIAN COMMUNITY THEORY. AUICK First 2005 Workshop. Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved.

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Brian Gilbert
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DECLINE FOLLOWS BY FERTILITY DECLINE AGRARIAN COMMUNITY HIGH BIRTH RATE TO COMPENSATE HIGH MORTALITY MORE PEOPLE NEEDED FOR AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES THE ROLE OF MOTHERS AND WOMEN WAS LOW ESPECIALLY ON

1 EMPOWERMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES : FUTURE POPULATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMS BY : PROF. DR. HARYONO SUYONO AUICK, IAC MEMBER THEORY AGRARIAN COMMUNITIES AGRARIAN COMMUNITIES HAVE HIGH DEATH RATE MODERN SELF RELIANCE COMMUNITIES TEND TO USE MORE ADVANCE TECHNOLOGY 1 2 GENERAL MODEL MORTALITY DECLINE FOLLOWS BY FERTILITY DECLINE AGRARIAN COMMUNITY HIGH BIRTH RATE TO COMPENSATE HIGH MORTALITY MORE PEOPLE NEEDED FOR AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES THE ROLE OF MOTHERS AND WOMEN WAS LOW ESPECIALLY ON DOMESTIC MATTERS PRIMITIVE REGIME INTERMEDIATE REGIME FIST HIGH FERTILITY AND HIGH MORTALITY EXP. OF LIFE = 45 YEARS TFR 4,5 6, SECOND MODERATE FERTILITY AND MORTALITY EXP OF LIFE = YEARS TFR 3, 4,5 COMPLETED WHEN NRR = 1 AFTER TRANSITION = CONTEMPORARY REGIME OR PRE INDUSTRIAL WAS AREA OF EUROPEAN SETLLEMENT TOTAL NUMBER OF POPULATION DOUBLED BETWEEN WAS TOTAL NUMBER OF POPULATION TRIPLED TOTAL NUMBER INCREASED BY SIX TIMES 6 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 1

TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT MORE URBAN COMMUNITY FERTILITY AND MORTALITY DECLINING FASTER BECAUSE OF INVENTION IN DRUGS, INNOVATION AND SPECIAL INTERVENTIONS LOW POPULATION GROWTH LOW FERTILITY AND LOW

OF LIFE >65 AND TFR =< 2, 7 8 THE SPEED OF MORTALITY DECLINE FOLLOWS BY STRONG FERFTILITY AJUSTMENT IN MANY PLACES MORTALITY DECLINE FOLLOWS BY FERTILITY DECLINE 9 1 China s rapid fertility decline

2 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT MORE URBAN COMMUNITY FERTILITY AND MORTALITY DECLINING FASTER BECAUSE OF INVENTION IN DRUGS, INNOVATION AND SPECIAL INTERVENTIONS LOW POPULATION GROWTH LOW FERTILITY AND LOW MORTALITY AFTER PRIMITIVE, INTERMEDIATE AND PRE INDUSTRIAL REGIME IN MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPLODE VITAL REVOLUTION NRR = 1 MAY HAPPEN BETWEEN EXP. OF LIFE >65 AND TFR =< 2, 7 8 THE SPEED OF MORTALITY DECLINE FOLLOWS BY STRONG FERFTILITY AJUSTMENT IN MANY PLACES MORTALITY DECLINE FOLLOWS BY FERTILITY DECLINE 9 1 China s rapid fertility decline has given it a (BONUS) of greater advantage DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS Child Dependency South Asia and China Bangladesh 8 Pakistan 6 India 4 PR CHINA China 2 OLD AGE AND CHILD DEPENDENCY IS LOW G. NESS 1 Population, China and India Thousands China 8 India INDIA and CHINA (the two giants) Half a century ago they were less than half their current size POPULATION CONTINUES GROWING G. NESS 11 The same percapita education expenditure means a higher expenditure per student 1 Child Dependency Southeast Asia Indon Phil Thai VTN Mal G. NESS 12 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 2

The three now over 1 million; They, too, have more than doubled Population: Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan 35 Thousands

countries All have also more than doubled Population: Southeast Asia 195-23 12 Thousands 1 8 6 Philippines Thailand Vietnam 4 2

INDONESIAN SUCCESS STORY INFANT MORTALITY 159 > 38 PER 1, LB MATERNAL MORTALITY 6 36 PER 1, LIFE EXPECTANCY 41 66.

3 REDUCTION IN FERTILITY LEADS TO LOW POPULATION GROWTH 16 118 MILLION HIGH ADDITIONAL POPULATION 1971 24 > 215 MILLION POP

3 The three now over 1 million; They, too, have more than doubled Population: Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan 35 Thousands Pakistan 25 Indonesia 2 Bangaladesh Finally there are the four smaller countries All have also more than doubled Population: Southeast Asia Thousands Philippines Thailand Vietnam 4 2 Malaysia G. NESS G. NESS SAMPLE WHAT CHANCES? INDONESIAN SUCCESS STORY INFANT MORTALITY 159 > 38 PER 1, LB MATERNAL MORTALITY 6 36 PER 1, LIFE EXPECTANCY ADULT ILLITERACY 61 PERCENT 12 PERCENT INCOME PER CAPITA FOURFOLD BUT HDI REMAINS LOW 15 TFR CBR CDR GR REDUCTION IN FERTILITY LEADS TO LOW POPULATION GROWTH MILLION HIGH ADDITIONAL POPULATION > 215 MILLION POP INCREASES BY 17% = 1 MILLION 17 YOUTH AND OLD AGES EXPLOTION -14 > > 215 MILLION > > > 65 > 3-1 (MILLION) 18 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 3

HDI Indonesia BUT INDONESIA HAS VERY LOW HDI RANKING 111 OUT OF 177 COUNTRIES 19 PEOPLE AND COMMUNITY EMPOWERMENT IMPROVEMENT OF FAMILY, WOMEN, CHILDREN AND YOUTH 2 1 CLEAR VISION AND MISSIONS HUMAN

POVERTY THROUGH IMPROVEMENT OF PEOPLE QUALITY IN HEALTH, EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES 2 ADOPTION OF BEHAVIOR STRATEGY NOT ATTITUDE BUT BEHAVIOR EFFECTIVE STRATEGY TO SELL IDEAS AND PRODUCTS

4 HDI Indonesia BUT INDONESIA HAS VERY LOW HDI RANKING 111 OUT OF 177 COUNTRIES 19 PEOPLE AND COMMUNITY EMPOWERMENT IMPROVEMENT OF FAMILY, WOMEN, CHILDREN AND YOUTH 2 1 CLEAR VISION AND MISSIONS HUMAN RIGHTS FREEDOM FROM GENDER, RACE, ETHNIC, ETC FREEDOM TO FULFILL THE NEEDS FOR PROSPEROUS LIVES FREEDOM TO EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES FREEDOM FROM FEAR ETC VISION : PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST MISSIONS : ERADICATE POVERTY THROUGH IMPROVEMENT OF PEOPLE QUALITY IN HEALTH, EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES 2 ADOPTION OF BEHAVIOR STRATEGY NOT ATTITUDE BUT BEHAVIOR EFFECTIVE STRATEGY TO SELL IDEAS AND PRODUCTS CHANGING AWARENESS AND ATTITUDE BEHAVIOR, PARTICIPATION AND BUY MDGs and HDI INTRODUCE MDGs and HDI COMPONENTS ERADICATING EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER UNIVERSAL BASIC EDUCATION PROMOTING GENDER EQUALITY AND WOMEN EMPOWERMENT REDUCING CHILD MORTALITY AND MATERNAL MORTALITY COMBATING HIV/AIDS, MALARIA ETC ENSURING ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION THRU PEOPLE CENTERED DEVELOPMENT 23 4 FOCUS ERADICATING EXTREME POVERTY THRU : IMPROVEMENT IN HEALTH, EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES INTRODUCE STRATEGY : TO HELP PEOPLE THRU THREE INTEGRATED APPROACHES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT FAMILY INCOME ENVIRONTMENT THREE INTEGRATED PACKAGES : EVERY ONE CAN PARTICIPATE ACCORDING TO THEIR OWN CHOICES 24 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 4

5 MAINTAIN LOCAL GOV AND NGO COMMITMENT PEOPLE PARTICIPATION IN MDGs PROVISION OF SERVICES BY GOV AND NON GOV

KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDE AND FULL PARTICIPATION 26 FOCUS ON STRONG IMPROVEMENT FOR MAIN HDI COMPONENTS HEALTHY LIFE

FAMILIES MDGs HDI PEOPLE WITH < US $1 5 % LESS HDI LEADS TO INTEGRATED TARGET 28 LABOR FORCE WITH LOW QUALITY LOW

5 5 MAINTAIN LOCAL GOV AND NGO COMMITMENT PEOPLE PARTICIPATION IN MDGs PROVISION OF SERVICES BY GOV AND NON GOV COMMUNITIES, FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS TO HELP PEOPLE HELP THEMSELVES 25 POP PROGRAM EMPOWERMENT FOR BETTER KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDE AND FULL PARTICIPATION 26 FOCUS ON STRONG IMPROVEMENT FOR MAIN HDI COMPONENTS HEALTHY LIFE EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT OF INCOME PEOPLE CENTERED DEVELOPMENT 27 1 ERADICATING EXTREME POVERTY TARGET : POOR FAMILIES MDGs HDI PEOPLE WITH < US $1 5 % LESS HDI LEADS TO INTEGRATED TARGET 28 LABOR FORCE WITH LOW QUALITY LOW PERFORMANCE AND LOW INCOME IMPROVE QUALITIY OF WOMEN IN LABOR FORCE 29 SCHOOLING AND PRACTICAL PARTICIPATION IN LABOR FORCE 9.9 MILLION RURAL GILRS 2-3 : 7,8 MILLION MARRIED AND 2,1 NOT MARRIED 1 MILLION URBAN : 5,3 MIL MARRIED AND 4,7 MILLION NOT MARRIED STUDY, WORK OR LOOKING FOR WORK 3 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 5

MICRO CREDIT HELPING MOTHERS DEVELOPING VILLAGE BANKING

BUSINESS FOR INDIVIDUAL FOR INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP THRU

MARKET INTEREST 32 2 EDUCATION AND GENDER EQUALITY SPECIAL

QUALITY OF SCHOOLING AND UNDERSTANDING OF REPRODUCTIVE

SCHOOLING ERADICATE STOP POVERTY CHAIN 33 34 3 PROMOTING

THAN 5 % OF HIGH SCHOOL CHILDREN NOT IN SPECIAL TRAINING

SUPPORT GIRLS FOR 12 YEARS OF SCHOOLING 35 HAPPY AND

6 MICRO CREDIT HELPING MOTHERS DEVELOPING VILLAGE BANKING SYSTEMS TO HELP MOTHERS TO EARN THRU MICRO BUSINESS BUSINESS FOR INDIVIDUAL FOR INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP THRU BANKING SYSTEMS BASE ON MARKET AND OPEN SYSTEMS 31 WITH MARKET INTEREST 32 2 EDUCATION AND GENDER EQUALITY SPECIAL ATTENTION FOR GIRLS IMPROVE QUALITY OF SCHOOLING IMPROVE QUALITY OF SCHOOLING AND UNDERSTANDING OF REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH IMPROVE PARTICIPATION TO PREPARE GIRLS FOR HIGHER SCHOOLING ERADICATE STOP POVERTY CHAIN PROMOTING GENDER EQUALITY TOTAL NUMBERS OF ===> 2x TIMES MORE THAN 5 % OF HIGH SCHOOL CHILDREN NOT IN SPECIAL TRAINING TO PREPARE GIRLS FOR HEALTHY LIFE AND SELF RELIANCE SUPPORT GIRLS FOR 12 YEARS OF SCHOOLING 35 HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS FUTURE 36 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 6

4 TWO IS ENOUGH NKKBS REDUCING CHILD MORTALITY PEOPLE CENTERED PRIVATE SECTOR FAMILY PLANNING VILLAGE

38 5 MATERNAL MORTALITY IS HIGH? MMR 36 PER 36 1.

MOTHERHOOD INITIATIVE HIGH MORTALITY INFLUENCES HDI 39 4 6 HIV/AIDS, MALARIA THREADS HIV/AIDS IN

7 4 TWO IS ENOUGH NKKBS REDUCING CHILD MORTALITY PEOPLE CENTERED PRIVATE SECTOR FAMILY PLANNING VILLAGE HEALTH SERVICES PROVISION OF CONTRACEPTIVES AT LOCAL LEVEL IMPROVEMENT EVERY VILLAGE WITH ONE MIDWIFE MATERNAL MORTALITY IS HIGH? MMR 36 PER BIRTH HIGHEST IN ASEAN MATERNAL MORTALITY HAS DECLINED BUT REMAINS THE HIGHEST IN ASEAN IMPROVE SAFE MOTHERHOOD INITIATIVE HIGH MORTALITY INFLUENCES HDI HIV/AIDS, MALARIA THREADS HIV/AIDS IN INDONESIA, CHINA AND VIETNAM HIV/AIDS WOMEN AND CHILDREN VICTIMS DRUG USERS AND SEX WORKERS Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 7

7 HEALTHY FOR THE POOR ENSURING ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY SPECIAL ATTENTION FOR THE POOR DEVELOP NEW

ENVIRONMENT 43 IMPROVE ACCESS TO FINANCIAL CAPITAL AND MARKETING 44 8 MAINTAIN GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE

LEMBAGA INDONESIA UNTUK PENGEMBANGAN MANUSIA INDONESIAN INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT NETWORKING IN

AND INTERNASIONAL NETWORKING WORKING TOGETHER WITH INTERNATIONAL BODIES AND INTERNASIONAL NETWORKING AUICK

8 7 HEALTHY FOR THE POOR ENSURING ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY SPECIAL ATTENTION FOR THE POOR DEVELOP NEW FACILITIES FOR UNDER PRIVILAGES AND WOMEN NEW FACILITIES : ROADS, MARKETS TO HELP THEM LIVE IN A DECENT ENVIRONMENT 43 IMPROVE ACCESS TO FINANCIAL CAPITAL AND MARKETING 44 8 MAINTAIN GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE SECTORS PARTNERSHIP NASIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL NETWORKING INDONESIAN INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT LEMBAGA INDONESIA UNTUK PENGEMBANGAN MANUSIA INDONESIAN INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT NETWORKING IN HEALTH, EDUCATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF FAMILY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND INTERNASIONAL NETWORKING WORKING TOGETHER WITH INTERNATIONAL BODIES AND INTERNASIONAL NETWORKING AUICK IN KOBE JAPAN 47 WORKING TOGETHER FOR BETTER ACTIONS THANK YOU 48 Copyright Asian Urban Information Center of Kobe. All rights reserved. 8

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