Can Russia Compete? Enhancing Productivity and Innovation in a Globalizing World. Raj M. Desai The Brookings Institution

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1 Can Russia Compete? Enhancing Productivity and Innovation in a Globalizing World Raj M. Desai The Brookings Institution Itzhak Goldberg The World Bank October 15, 2008, The World Bank

2 Outline Introduction Productivity Innovation Skills Policy Environment Recommendations

3 Increasing dependence on oil and vulnerability to price changes Oil and Gas exports (% total exports) Oil revenue (% of total revenues) Brent Oil price US$/ bbl (right scale)

4 Economic Diversification Diversification is at the top of the Putin-Medvedev agenda But can it happen via topdown, state-sponsored efforts?

5 Productivity What do productivity patterns tell us about the sustainability of Russia s economic performance?

6 Russia s manufacturing productivity lags behind other large economies Productivity (national accounts, left axis) Productivity estimates (surveys, left axis) Value added (US$) per employee Wages (manufacturing firms, right axis) US$ per month (log scale) Russia China India Poland Brazil South Africa SpainGermanySouth Korea 1

7 Real wages increases are outpacing productivity gains Labor productivity growth, % Real wage growth, %

8 Sources of growth Output Growth 50 % K, L Training Innovation Investment Climate Education Labor Legislation Labor Turnover R&D Policy Stability Technology Governance absorption Competition

9 Innovation Russia s R&D sector is large, but underperforms in publications and patents Russian R&D Institutes commercialize less than in Poland, Croatia, Serbia

10 Barriers to innovation Benefits from increased globalization have been limited Trade in critical parts and components for electrical machinery remains low FDI inflows in general, and inflows into information, communication and technology sectors (which could speed absorption) are low

11 Russia s research intensity does not correspond to productivity Manufacturing value-added per worker (thousands US$) Germany Spain South Korea South Africa Poland Brazil China Russia India Reseachers per thousand population

12 U.S. patents granted, US Patents Granted (per million population) Czech Rep S Africa China Russia Poland Brazil India

13 Firms that operate in less competitive environments also spend less on R&D and innovate less Share of firms realizing innovations Competitive Pressure 0 High R&D Low R&D No competitive Pressure

14 Skills Are the skills of Russian workers sufficient for firms to become internationally competitive?

15 Training is critical for innovation and productivity By international standards Russia s workforce is highly educated But under-funding and deterioration of secondary education, and the absence of effective professional training are potential problems Russian firms that train Are more productive and pay higher wages Invest more in R&D and are more innovative High labor turnover reduces firms investment in training

16 Labor skills is one of the main obstacles for all firms Taxes Skills Uncertainty Unfair competition Corruption Finance Legal system Licensing Land Safety Infrastructure Small Large and Medium Labor regulations Percent of firms reporting obstacle as "most severe"

17 Russian firms cite a shortage of skilled labor as a primary constraint Overstaffed 40 Percent of firms Understaffed

18 Many firms offer training but few workers are trained Workforce Trained (% of Workers) Portugal Spain Malaysia Korea Greece Brazil Chile Serbia Germany Bulgaria Lithuania Russia Ireland China Incidence of Training (% of Firms)

19 The Business Environment To what extent does the Russian business climate provide opportunities for competitive firms to expand and grow?

20 Russia has reduced the costs of doing business Start-up costs now lower than in Brazil, China, and India Reforms enacted in streamlined regulations, reduced administrative barriers for firms, simplified licensing and inspection procedures World Bank-CEFIR monitoring reveals some backsliding

21 ... But firms still bear costs of a poor business climate Bribes Infrastructure Problems Security, Protection, Theft Supply Delays Percent of Sales Indonesia Ukraine Russia China South Africa

22 Costs are not the only problem Policy uncertainty In Russia, the #1 problem (according to firm surveys) According to the World Economic Forum, Russia ranks 75th out of 117 countries in regulatory unpredictability (China ranks 48th, India 50th, and Brazil 65th) Often a result of regulations applied inconsistently or selectively Deters investment Barriers to competition Preferential treatment Informal practices

23 Does Russia s investment climate hinder innovation? Firms facing weaker competitive pressures do not innovate as much Innovative firms suffer from harsher IC constraints: Are more likely to pay bribes Suffer from more non-payment by customers Pay more in protection payments Monopolistic firms (the least innovative) are relatively sheltered from IC problems

24 The investment climate is worse for firms that operate in a competitive environment Firms facing the least competitive pressure Firms facing the most competitive pressure Governance Administrative Taxation Labor Finance Land Infrastructure Percent of firms that consider each constraint to be major

25 Recommendations What can be done to improve the global competitiveness of the Russian economy?

26 Towards a more innovative environment? Current obstacle Firms fall short of their innovative potential Workers lack skills to compete globally Policy environment constrains dynamic firms Way forward Incentives for greater R&D and an improved R&D regime Improved in-house and vocational training Competition in product markets, reduced policy uncertainty, and

27 Recommendations Facilitate the commercialization of R&D through Matching grants, public-private collaboration But avoid use of tax-based incentives or stateowned venture capital funds Use employer-targeted incentives to invest in in-service training Payroll-levy funds Matching grants

28 Recommendations (continued) Privatize municipally-held land Improve allocation and protection of intellectual property rights Strengthen consultative processes in designing regulations Updated administrative reform package Limit warrant-less inspections Reduce duplication between governmental bodies in licensing Consider regulatory-review mechanism

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