Sociology 201: Social Research Design
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1 Sociology 201: Social Research Design 12. The Logic of Sampling 1
2 Preview Workbook assignments due: 7.1, 72 Review Chapter 6 homework Video on Sampling History of Sampling Logic of Probability Sampling Sampling Techniques 2
3 Review Chap 6 Workbook Assignments Range: 0 to 98 3
4 6.2 Semantic differential Attitudes toward fast food Nutrition: nutritious, junk Taste: Tastes good, tastes bad Cost: Expensive, cheap 4
5 Semantic Differential Format Very Some- Much what Some- Very Neither what Much Nutritious [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] Junk Tastes good [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] Tastes bad Cheap [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] Expensive How would you score the various responses? 5
6 Scoring Semantic Differential Very Some- Much what Some- Very Neither what Much Nutritious Junk Tastes good Tastes bad Expensive Cheap Range = 0 (Bad) to 12 (Good) 6
7 It s Showtime! 7
8 Intuitive sampling Chapman student experience of sexual harassment Have you ever been sexually harassed? Ask all? -- too many Ask some? How many? Which ones? 8
9 Sampling History: Literary Digest Picked winner in Picked Landon over FDR in 1936 Mailed 10,000,000 ballots 2,000,000 came back FDR won with enormous landslide Who knows what went wrong? Sampling frame: cars and phones Excluded the poor--during Depression 20% return isn t very good 70% or more is common in good studies 9
10 Sampling History: Gallup Gallup predicted FDR in 1936 Quota Sampling 10
11 Sampling History: Gallup Gallup predicted FDR in 1936 Quota Sampling Men Women 11
12 Sampling History: Gallup Gallup predicted FDR in 1936 Quota Sampling Men Women Rural Urban 12
13 Sampling History: Gallup Gallup predicted FDR in 1936 Quota Sampling Men Women College Less College Less Rural Urban 13
14 Sampling History: Gallup Gallup predicted FDR in 1936 Quota Sampling Men Women College Less College Less Rural White Non-white White Urban Non-white 14
15 Sampling History: Gallup Gallup predicted FDR in 1936 Quota Sampling Men Women College Less College Less Rural White Non-white % % % % % % % % White % % % % Urban Non-white % % % % 15
16 Sampling History: Gallup Accurate in Predicted Dewey in
17 Sampling History: Gallup Accurate in Predicted Dewey in 1948 Truman won 17
18 What did Gallup do wrong? Quota frames were based on 1940 census Urban migration during WWII Underrepresented urban masses Stopped polling too soon Extrapolation of trends pointed to Truman 18
19 1992 Presidential Election Clinton Bush Perot Oct Gallup/USA Today/CNN Oct ABC News Oct Gallup/USA Today/CNN Oct ABC News Oct 27 NBC News/Wall St Jour Oct Gallup/USA/Today/CNN /31/92 Gallup /31/92 CBS News/New York Times /31/92 ABC News /31/92 Gallup/CNN/USA Today /01/92 Gallup/CNN/USA Today /02/92 ABC News /02/92 CBS News/New York Times /02/92 NBC News/Wall St. Jour /03/92 Harris Poll /03/92 ELECTION RESULTS
20 1996 Presidential Election Dates Agency Clinton Dole Perot Other 10/28-31 Hotline/Battleground /30-11/2 CBS/New York Times /31-11/3 Pew Research Center /1-3 Reuter/Zogby /1-3 Harris /2-3 ABC
21 2000 Presidential Election Gore Bush Nader Buchnan* 11/5: Hotline [Polling Co/GSG] /5: Marist College /5: Fox [Opinion Dynamics] /5: Newsweek [PRSA] /5: NBC/Wall St. Journal [Hart/Teeter] /5: Pew /5: ICR /5: Harris /5: Harris (online) /5: ABC/ Washington Post [TNSI] /6: IDB/CSM [TIPP] /6: CBS /6: Portrait of America [Rasmussen] /6: CNN/USA Today [Gallup] /6: Reuters/MSNBC [Zogby] /6: Voter.com [Lake/Goeas] November 7 th Election Results
22 Probability sampling--epsem Equal Probability of Selection Method 22
23 Calculate sampling error 95 percent confidence level is a standard Count Missing = ± 10 percentage points 400 = ± 5 percentage points 1600 = ± 2.5 percentage points 89 AGE OF RESPONDENT 23
24 Populations and Sampling frames Problem of phone directory Problem of radio call-ins Problem of newspaper writeins 24
25 Types of Sampling designs Simple Random Sample Systematic Stratified Cluster sampling Probability proportionate to size (PPS) 25
26 Simple Random Sample Number each person in the population Select random numbers (from table or computer) Those people are in the sample 26
27 Systematic Sample Divide population size by desired sample to get sampling interval: K e.g., 1,000,000 / 2,000 = 500 Select every 500th person 27
28 Stratified Sample Group population according to some variable(s), e.g., gender Then select random or systematic sample in each subgroup 28
29 Cluster Sample Identify clusters that people exist in Sample the clusters List people in each selected cluster Sample people within each of the selected clusters 29
30 Weighting Recall Quota Sampling Logic Methods 30
31 Next Time Sampling Examples Review Chapter 7 31
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