The Carbon Content of International Trade: Effects of the Kyoto Protocol

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1 The Carbon Content of International Trade: Effects of the Kyoto Protocol Gabriel Felbermayr LMU München und ifo Institut FIW-Workshop Trade and Environment BMDW, Feb 20, 2018

2 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 2 2 TRADE AND CLIMATE POLICY FACT 1: World merchandise imports over GDP: 25% and growing FACT 2: No world-wide price for carbon, no world-wide carbon emission cap Heterogeneous carbon policies (taxes, standards, caps,...) give rise to concerns about International competitiveness Environmental efficiency (carbon leakage)

3 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 3 3 CARBON LEAKAGE Special case of pollution haven hypothesis Heterogeneous (e.g. unilateral) climate policies change patterns of comparative advantage and lead to relocation of CO 2 -intensive production Potential implications for all factor prices and threat of deindustrialization Emission reductions in green countries may be (more than) offset by higher emissions in brown countries Call for border adjustment taxes (BAT) (Sarkozy, Macron, Krugman, Waxman-Markey bill,...)

4 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics YEARS OF CLIMATE DIPLOMACY 1992: Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro. UN-FCCC established Principle of common but differentiated responsibility Voluntary limitations of national CO2-emissions 1997: Members of UN-FCCC conclude the Kyoto-Protocol Binding CO2 emission targets: 5.2% below 1990 levels until 2012 Rules on trade of emission permits and compensation Countries ratify Kyoto (not US!) 2005: entry into force 2012: Doha Amendment prolongation of Kyoto to : Paris Agreement 2017: President Trump announces that US withdraw from Paris Agreement

5 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 5 5 LEARNING FROM KYOTO FOR THE FUTURE QUESTION 1: Was the Kyoto Protocol effective after all? [A&F: JPAM 2013] QUESTION 2: Did Kyoto commitment lower the carbon footprint of nations? [A&F: JEEM 2012] QUESTION 3: Have Kyoto commitments led to carbon leakage? [A&F: REStat, 2015] (probably) YES NO NO Border Adjustment Tax ( carbon tariff!) would make sense 1. Instrument to foster coalition stability 2. and to improve efficiency of carbon policies

6 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 6 6 AGENDA Introduction Effectiveness of Kyoto Kyoto and the CO2 Footprint of Nations Kyoto and Carbon leakage

7 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 7 7 ECONOMETRIC APPROACH Second-stage regressions Pre-treatment period: Post-treatment period: First-stage regressions

8 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 8 8 KYOTO AND ICC MEMBERSHIP in a large panel of countries (N=133) yes yes yes Other controls: ln GDP (-), ln GDP squared (+), ln population (-), ln manuf. in % of GDP), ln agriculture in % of GDP (-), ln services in% GDP (+), ln stock of other IEA, Government orientation, Openness (-), WTO (-), Polity ( ).

9 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics 9 9 KYOTO AND CO2 EMISSIONS Other controls yes yes yes yes

10 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics CHANNELS OF THE KYOTO EFFECT, I

11 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics CHANNELS OF THE KYOTO EFFECT, II

12 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics Kyoto did affect outcomes despite lack of enforcement and despite incomplete and second-best implementation

13 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics AGENDA Introduction Effectiveness of Kyoto Kyoto and the CO2 Footprint of Nations Kyoto and Carbon leakage

14 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics TRADE AND CLIMATE POLICY International Trade Territorial CO 2 emissions and emissions embodied in domestic absorption (consumption, investment) [= CO 2 footprint] can diverge Patterns of comparative advantage Climate policies (even reciprocal / symmetric ones!) Trade policies Generally, changes in climate policies or trade policies will affect difference between territorial emissions and footprints of nations Here: Focus on Kyoto-Protocol

15 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics ESTIMATING CO 2 FOOTPRINTS Implemented for 40 countries using OECD and UNIDO data

16 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics FOOTPRINTS &TERRITORIAL EMISSIONS

17 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics EMPIRICAL SETUP Second stage regressions Pre ( ) and post-treatment ( ) periods First stage regressions: as before (IV strategy ICC ratification and its spatial lag)

18 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics SIMPLE DIFF-IN-DIFF

19 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics REGRESSION ANALYSIS

20 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics Kyoto did reduce territorial CO 2 emissions, but has not affected countries CO 2 footprints. Non negligible role of trade

21 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics AGENDA Introduction Effectiveness of Kyoto Kyoto and the CO2 Footprint of Nations Kyoto and Carbon leakage

22 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics GRAVITY FOR CARBON

23 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics NEW DATA

24 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics ECONOMETRIC STRATEGY

25 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics DIFF-IN-DIFF POOLED DATA

26 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics CAUSAL EFFECTS

27 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics BASELINE RESULTS

28 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics SECTOR-LEVEL RESULTS

29 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics Kyoto did increase imports from non-committed countries, the carbon intensity of imports, and the carbon content of imports

30 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY Carbon leakage is a real possibility and it is quantitatively relevant Need border adjustment tax (BAT) to stabilize coalition of the willing and to improve effectiveness / efficiency Common but differentiated responsibility: rebate BAT income New free trade agreements: link CO2-emission trading systems, harmonize CO2 taxes, allow for BAT

31 Gabriel Felbermayr ifo Center for International Economics CURRENT ifo RESEARCH Effects of FTAs on CO2 emissions worldwide Ex post analysis (EU-Korea for the EU Commission) Ex ante analysis, with and without BATs Excessive and inefficient international trade due to noninternalization of transportation related CO2 emissions: Analysis using an NQTM Role of trade linkages in mitigating damage caused by global warming

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