Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity in East Asia May 2013, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

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1 ESCAP High-level Policy Dialogue Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia International Economic Summit 2013 Eleventh Bank Indonesia Annual International Seminar Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity in East Asia May 2013, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Jointly organized by UN ESCAP, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia and Bank Indonesia Roundtable Discussion Rethinking Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in East Asia Presentation Global Growth Engines including USA, European Union, Japan & China to 12 Asian Economies (1980 to 2020), Further Asian Connectivity and Inclusive Growth by Dr Tan Khee Giap Co Directors, Asia Competitiveness Institute, Associate Professor of Public Policy Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore & Chairman, Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation (SINCPEC) May 2013 The views expressed in the paper are those of the author(s) and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. This paper has been issued without formal editing.

2 Global Growth Engines including USA, European Union, Japan & China to 12 Asian Economies (1980 to 2020), Further Asian Connectivity and Inclusive Growth* Dr Tan Khee Giap Co Directors, Asia Competitiveness Institute Associate Professor of Public Policy Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore & Chairman, Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation (SINCPEC) Revised and prepared for presentation for ESCAP High level Policy Dialogue on Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity in East Asia organised by ESCAP, Jogyakarta, May Also presented at the Asia Pacific Real Estate Convention & Expo 2013, March 2013, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore; also presented at the 27 th Pacific economic Seminar Regional Economic Integration Review AND Outlook organized by Chinese Taipei Pacific Economic Foundation Cooperation Committee, 4 5 October 2012, The Regent Hotel, Taipei, Taiwan; presented to China Europe Institute of Business Studies (CEIBS) delegation, 13 October 2012 at Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore Outline of Presentation The dynamic evolution of global growth engines including USA, EU, Japan, China to 11 selected Asian economies over past four decades, Regional competitiveness landscapes including 34 Greater China economies, 35 States of India and ASEAN-10, Differences in economic development approaches and characteristics amongst China, India and Singapore. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) versus Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a pathway to Free Trade Agreement for Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) which is the most widely supported approach for greater economic integration The Global economy in the decade ahead, : Dynamic shifts, challenges and opportunities

3 Estimating Growth Engines China now the largest export market for ASEAN-5 except Indonesia US, European Union and Japan are now weaker engines of growth for ASEAN-5 The importance of indirect growth multiplier US impact on Australia (US is a minor trading partner) through its effect on Japan and China (which are major Australian trading partners) Export shares and trade in intermediates products Growth Engines of ASEAN-5 Traditional external engines of growth: US, EU, Japan. When US sneezes the world catches cold New external engines: China, India??? How to assess? Trade flows versus multiplier effects China the largest export market, does it generate similar multiplier effects?

4 Decoupling Literature Number of studies on business cycle comovements at a global level (Kose and Prasad, 2010). Basic tool: Dynamic factor model. Identify a latent factor to represent global cycles and examine how this correlates with individual country cycles. Results are mixed, but less supportive of decoupling thesis. Focus of ACI-LKYSPP Studies Our focus, not on business cycle synchronization, but on the evolution of Asia s dependence of traditional and emerging growth engines and the dynamics of Asian integration. Common practice: look into direct trade and investment linkages. This ignores indirect multiplier effects and underestimates the power of growth engines.

5 Export shares and trade in intermediates products versus final demand ASEAN Components Japan Components China (Components & final assembly) Final Demand US Components NIEs The Importance of Indirect Growth Multiplier Japan Australia US China Major Impact Minor Impact

6 VAR Model of Estimation on the Engines of Growth The Four Engines of Growth Note: Figures in brackets for refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 10

7 The Four Engines of Growth Thailand Period China India Japan EU US (1.74) (1.06) (1.57) Note: Figures in brackets for refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 11 The Four Engines of Growth Indonesia Period China India Japan EU US (1.37) (1.03) (1.47) Note: Figures in brackets for refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 12

8 The Four Engines of Growth Singapore Period China India Japan EU US (2.52) (0.94) (1.34) Note: Figures in brackets for refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 13 The Four Engines of Growth Philippines Period China India Japan EU US (1.75) (1.05) (1.59) Note: Figures in brackets for refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 14

9 Relative Importance of US vs China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 Period Ratio * * Figure projected assuming a linear trend for the natural logarithm of the ratio. Relative Importance of EU vs China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 Period Ratio * * Figure projected assuming a linear trend for the natural logarithm of the ratio.

10 Relative Importance of China vs Japan as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 Period Ratio * * Figure projected assuming a linear trend for the natural logarithm of the ratio. Relative Importance of US vs China as an Engine of Growth ( ) Country Ratio India 1.94 Malaysia 1.69 Philippines 1.59 Thailand 1.57 Japan 1.53 Indonesia 1.47 Singapore 1.34 Australia 1.15 Korea 1.09 Taiwan 0.99 Hong Kong 0.70

11 Relative Importance of EU vs China as an Engine of Growth ( ) Country Ratio India 1.61 Malaysia 1.03 Philippines 1.05 Thailand 1.06 Japan 0.91 Indonesia 1.03 Singapore 0.94 Australia 0.92 Korea 0.76 Taiwan 0.63 Hong Kong 046 Country Relative Importance of China vs Japan as an Engine of Growth ( ) Ratio Hong Kong 6.33 Taiwan 3.73 Korea 3.20 India 2.98 Singapore 2.52 Malaysia 2.04 Philippines 1.75 Thailand 1.75 Australia 1.52 Indonesia 1.37

12 Relative Importance of (US plus Japan) vs China as Engine of Growth ( ) Country Ratio India 2.28 Malaysia 2.18 Philippines 2.14 Thailand 2.16 Indonesia 2.20 Singapore 1.74 Australia 1.81 Korea 1.40 Taiwan 1.26 Hong Kong 0.86 Engines of Growth among ASEAN-5 ( ) Indo Mal Phil Spore Thai Indo Mal 0.34 (0.49) Phil Spore 0.25 (0.16) 0.31 (0.43) Thai 0.22 (0.39) Note: figures in brackets refer to the period

13 Conclusions China has rapidly become a major engine of growth for ASEAN-5 in the past decade The US growth engine is still 1.53 times more important than that of China for ASEAN-5 The EU growth engine is equally important as that of China for ASEAN-5 The Chinese growth engine has become 1.88 times more important than that of Japan for ASEAN-5 Conclusions US pus Japan is about twice as important as China as the growth engine for ASEAN-5, however, the continued economic integration of China to other Asian economies is unstoppable! India has not yet become a growth engine for ASEAN-5 though it is of increasing importance to Singapore and Malaysia Intra-ASEAN growth engines are confined to among Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The growth engines have actually weakened over the past decade.

14 Conclusions The mutual growth dependence of Singapore and Malaysia has fallen over the past decade Indonesia has become a more important growth engine for Singapore over the past decade US participation in any Asian regional economic grouping is critical as it is still the most important engine of growth for all the Asian economies (except Taiwan and Hong Kong) Conclusions Based on existing trends, for ASEAN to strategically balance the rising dependence on China, the key network linkages with the most future potential are: (1) India-Indonesia-Singapore, Australia-India, Japan-Indonesia- Singapore. (2) Attracting Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and Hong Kong labour intensive industries relocating from China to ASEAN to produce for the US, EU, Japan, India and ASEAN markets. (3) For greater Asian connectivity and integration, attracting massive infrastructure investment and financing from China and Japan to ASEAN in the area of transportation, telecommunication, power & utilities to ensure sustainable economic growth development bottlenecks in ASEAN

15 Regional tension and political agenda involving USA, China, Japan and Korea have disrupted CJK-FTA Further momentum of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJK-FTA) is unlikely in the near future and not too optimistic in the medium term either. Trans-Pacific Strategic economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) evolved from the original P-4 FTA initiated by Singapore in 2006 currently have more than 11 members committed or interested. However, TPP so far has been overshadowed by political agenda with renewed Japanese interests, given the difficulties of China and Indonesia which are unlikely join such a high quality FTA. Japan proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia (CEPEA) so as to play an active leadership role in East Asia which in fact is FTA of ASEAN 3+3 (i.e. India Australia and New Zealand) where all 16 members are members of the East Asian Summit; meanwhile China has taken keen initiative in discussion pertaining to East Asia Free Trade Agreement (EAFTA) where government officials are engaged in the discussions under the four working groups. We strongly urge USA to play an even more pro-active economic role in Asia where political role would emerge naturally later which would lead to greater stabilization of Asia. RCEP or TPP, which is a realistic path way FTAAP to better reflect balanced regional interests? The current American-driven high-quality Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have gained momentum from recent Japanese agreement to participate although two emerging giant Asian economies, namely China and Indonesia, continued to be not keen. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can be seen as a compromise when China and Japan jointly proposed in August 2011 ASEAN to set up three working groups in goods, trade in services and investments. Hence ASEAN proposed in November 2011 an ASEAN-Led RCEP was affirmed by leaders from East Asia Summit in April RCEP could be the most realistic pathway to Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) which would be the most widely supported approach since USA, China and Japan (and surely Chinese Taipei too!) are included. Other interested potential members such as India and other smaller economies would surely be welcome. As Indonesia recovers steadily since 2005 as a rising middle power after her economic set back in Asian financial crisis of 1997, the importance and leadership of Indonesia is noticed especially in view of the recent rising regional tensions over territory sovereignty amongst some members of ASEAN and China.

16 Growth rates of China s GDP, /05/ China s GDP, (at current prices, in USD millions) /05/

17 USA, European Union, China, Japan & India, The US economy appears to be emerging from its worst since the American sub-prime driven-financial crisis through rounds of quantitative easing. The fiscal non-sustainability and weak competitiveness of Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal would continue to drag down the economic prospect of European Union. The Chinese economy would continue to grow steadily at 7.5% per annum for the current decade with external demand, domestic consumption, regional infrastructure development and rapid urbanization as drivers for growth. India would continue to be bogged down by inertia in economic reform programs and the weak coalition government. The current Japanese attempt to restore trade competitiveness through currency depreciation and regionalization of Reminbi would have significant implications to exchange rate alignment for major world currencies. Global quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserves Board, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People s Bank of China would lead to competitive exchange rate devaluation and volatile capital flows with serious negative implications for Asian economies with potential inflationary pressure. 21/05/ Greater Asian Connectivity: Sustainable and Inclusive Growth In the APEC process, there are basically three pillars including trade & investment, regional integration and eco-tech. While APEC economies have made good progress in terms of trade & investment, regional integration in terms of Asian connectivity needed to be further enhanced. However the third pillar, namely eco-tech which encompasses inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, has been lacking in focus and serious attention while the first two pillars progress ahead with good performance by multinational corporations and reward for employers. In view of widening income disparity amongst developing and developed economies, productivity tracking and efficiency monitoring of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) must be serious look into, in particular the management performance of professional, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs) working in SMEs. Unlike Japan, as China is surely and steadily on the way to be the biggest economy in the world, further cooperation amongst SMES in Asia to gain greater access to the big, diverse and increasingly consumption driven Chinese markets would be paramount. Amongst the significant and effective way of ensuring fruits of economic growth to be inclusive and equitably shared, tracking on affordability indices in FOUR areas including education, housing, health and public transportation for public policies formulation and adjustments remained most critical. 21/05/

18 Framework for constructing Competitiveness Ranking (1) Macroeconomic Stability (2) Government & Institutional Setting (3) Financial, Businesses & Manpower Conditions (4) Quality Of Life & Infrastructure Development 1.1 Regional Economic Vibrancy 2.1 Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability 3.1 Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency 4.1 Physical Infrastructure Openness To Trade and Services Attractiveness To Foreign Investors 2.2 Institutions, Governance and Leadership 3.2 Labour Market Flexibility 4.2 Technological Infrastructure 3.3 Productivity Performance 4.3 Standard of Living, Education and Social Stability 1. Indicators for Macroeconomic Stability (26 Indicators) Openness To Trade and Attractiveness To Foreign 1.1 Regional Economic Vibrancy Services Investors Gross Regional Product Trade Balance (%) Planned Foreign Direct Investment (Excl Regional Investment) GRP Growth International Merchandise Exports Realized Foreign Direct Investment (Excl. Regional Investment) GRP Per Capita International Merchandise Imports Foreign Funded Enterprises (%) Primary Industry (%) Openness To Trade Total Taxes on Foreign Funded Companies Secondary Industry (%) International Visitor Arrivals Tertiary Industry (%) International Tourism Receipts Gross Capital Formation (%) Consumer Price Index Retail Price Index Net Regional Trade Regional Tourist Arrivals Regional Tourism Receipts Planned Regional Investment Realized Regional Investment Industry Gross Output Value Business Survey Index

19 2. Indicators for Government and Institutional Setting (13 Indicators) 2.1 Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability 2.2 Institutions, Governance and Leadership Government Revenue Domestic Funded Enterprises Tax Revenue State-Owned Enterprises Tax Revenue/Government Revenue Collective-Owned Enterprises Government Consumption Expenditure Limited Liability Corporations Budget Balance Share Holding Corporations Private Enterprises Foreign Funded Enterprises State-Owned Enterprises to Total Enterprises 3. Indicators for Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions (16 Indicators) Financial Deepening and Labour Market Flexibility 3.3 Productivity Performance Business Efficiency Total Savings Deposits Total Employed Persons Overall Labour Productivity Total Loans Self-Employed Persons (Urban Area) Primary Industry, Value Added per Worker Unemployment Rate (Urban Area) Secondary Industry, Value-Added per Worker Secondary & Tertiary Staff Workers (%) Tertiary Industry, Value-Added per Worker Average Annual Wage of Staff and Workers Total Wages Bill of Employed Persons in Urban Units Wages Paid Out by State-Owned Units Wages Paid Out by Urban Collective Units Wages Paid Out by Other Units Investment in Fixed Assets

20 4. Indicators for Quality Of Life and Infrastructure Development (51 Indicators) Standard of Living, Education and Social 4.1 Physical Infrastructure 4.2 Technological Infrastructure 4.3 Stability Population Persons per Fixed Telephone Subscriber Illiteracy Rate Urban Population Persons per Internet Subscriber Number of Educational Institutions Rural Population Personal Computer Disparity between Primary & Secondary Institutions Population Density High Technology Expenditure Tertiary Institutions Length of Railways in Operation High Technology Proficiency Student-Teacher Ratio (Primary) Length of Highways Persons per Mobile Telephone Subscriber Student-Teacher Ratio (Secondary) Length of Navigable Inland Waterways Urban Television Sets Student-Teacher Ratio (Tertiary) Length of Total Civil Aviation Routes Rural Television Sets Health Expenditure Passenger Distance of Railways in Operation Expenditure on Science and Technology Urban Population Growth Passenger Distance of Highways Scientific and Technical Journals Air Pollution Passenger Distance of Navigable Inland Waterways Patents Granted Ageing Profile Passenger Distance of Total Civil Aviation Routes Old Age Dependency Ratio Motor Vehicles per Person Birth Rate Coal Death Rate Oil Adequacy of Hospitals Electric Hydropower Population per Hospital Bed Crude Steel Population per Medical Personnel Pig Iron Per Capita Annual Urban Household Income Steel Products Cement Total Land Area Cultivated Land Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 34 Greater China Economies, TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Shanghai Beijing Jiangsu Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Shanghai Beijing Jiangsu Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Shanghai Beijing Jiangsu Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Shanghai Beijing Jiangsu Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Jiangsu Shanghai Zhejiang Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Jiangsu Shanghai Zhejiang Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Jiangsu Zhejiang Beijing Taiwan Hong Kong Guangdong Jiangsu Beijing Zhejiang Taiwan Guangdong Hong Kong Jiangsu Beijing Zhejiang Taiwan Guangdong Hong Kong Jiangsu Zhejiang Beijing Taiwan Guangdong Jiangsu Hong Kong Zhejiang Beijing TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Zhejiang Shandong Macau Liaoning Fujian Hebei Zhejiang Shandong Macau Liaoning Fujian Hebei Zhejiang Shandong Liaoning Fujian Macau Hebei Zhejiang Shandong Macau Liaoning Macau Hebei Beijing Shandong Macau Fujian Liaoning Hebei Shandong Beijing Liaoning Fujian Hebei Macau Shandong Shanghai Liaoning Macau Fujian Hebei Shanghai Shandong Liaoning Macau Hebei Fujian Shanghai Shandong Liaoning Hebei Fujian Macau Shanghai Shandong Liaoning Hebei Fujian Tianjin Shanghai Shandong Liaoning Hebei Fujian Sichuan TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Hubei Sichuan Tianjin Heilongjiang Henan Inner Mongolia Sichuan Hubei Tianjin Heilongjiang Inner Mongolia Jilin Sichuan Hubei Tianjin Heilongjiang Henan Chongqing Sichuan Hubei Heilongjiang Chongqing Tianjin Henan Sichuan Hubei Tianjin Henan Heilongjiang Hunan Sichuan Henan Hubei Tianjin Chongqing Hunan Henan Hubei Sichuan Tianjin Hunan Inner Mongolia Sichuan Hubei Henan Tianjin Hunan Inner Mongolia Hubei Tianjin Sichuan Henan Inner Mongolia Chongqing Macau Hubei Sichuan Henan Anhui Inner Mongolia Hubei Tianjin Macau Henan Anhui Inner Mongolia

21 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 34 Greater China Economies, TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Jilin Shanxi Anhui Chongqing Hunan Xinjiang Hunan Chongqing Henan Shanxi Anhui Hainan Jilin Hunan Anhui Shanxi Inner Mongolia Xinjiang Hunan Anhui Inner Mongolia Xinjiang Jilin Shanxi Anhui Chongqing Inner Mongolia Xinjiang Jilin Jiangxi Heilongjiang Inner Mongolia Jiangxi Anhui Jilin Xinjiang Heilongjiang Jiangxi Anhui Jilin Chongqing Guangxi Anhui Chongqing Jilin Xinjiang Heilongjiang Jiangxi Hunan Heilongjiang Anhui Jilin Xinjiang Jiangxi Chongqing Jilin Hunan Heilongjiang Shaanxi Jiangxi Chongqing Hunan Jilin Shaanxi Heilongjiang Shanxi TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Guangxi Hainan Yunnan Ningxia Shaanxi Jiangxi Xinjiang Guangxi Ningxia Yunnan Shaanxi Jiangxi Ningxia Guangxi Hainan Yunnan Jiangxi Shaanxi Jiangxi Ningxia Guangxi Shaanxi Yunnan Hainan Guangxi Ningxia Shanxi Shaanxi Yunnan Hainan Guangxi Shaanxi Ningxia Yunnan Shanxi Qinghai Xinjiang Shaanxi Shanxi Yunnan Ningxia Qinghai Guangxi Shaanxi Shanxi Ningxia Yunnan Hainan Guangxi Shanxi Shaanxi Yunnan Ningxia Hainan Guangxi Shanxi Xinjiang Yunnan Ningxia Hainan Jiangxi Xinjiang Guangxi Yunnan Ningxia Hainan TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score 2000 Qinghai Gansu Guizhou Tibet Qinghai Gansu Guizhou Tibet Qinghai Guizhou Gansu Tibet Qinghai Guizhou Gansu Tibet Qinghai Guizhou Gansu Tibet Hainan Gansu Guizhou Tibet Hainan Guizhou Gansu Tibet Qinghai Guizhou Gansu Tibet Qinghai Gansu Guizhou Tibet Gansu Guizhou Qinghai Tibet Gansu Qinghai Guizhou Tibet Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 35 States and Federal Territories of India, TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Delhi # Lakshadweep # Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Lakshadweep # Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Lakshadweep # Karnataka Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Delhi # Lakshadweep # Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Karnataka Gujarat Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Karnataka Lakshadweep # Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Karnataka Lakshadweep # Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Karnataka Lakshadweep # Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Karnataka Lakshadweep # Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Karnataka Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Delhi # Tamil Nadu Lakshadweep # Karnataka TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Sikkim Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka West Bengal Sikkim Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka West Bengal Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Sikkim Andhra Pradesh West Bengal Sikkim Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka West Bengal Lakshadweep # Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Sikkim West Bengal Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Sikkim West Bengal Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Sikkim West Bengal Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Sikkim Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Sikkim Madhya Pradesh Lakshadweep # Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Sikkim Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Sikkim Madhya Pradesh

22 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 35 States and Federal Territories of India, TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Nagaland Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Jammu & Kashmir Haryana Tripura Haryana Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Arunachal Pradesh Orissa Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Daman & Diu # Dadra & Nagar Haveli # Orissa Arunachal Pradesh Pondicherry # Arunachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Orissa Himachal Pradesh Pondicherry # Daman & Diu # Arunachal Pradesh Manipur Andaman & Nicobar Islands # 2005 Dadra & Nagar Haveli Punjab Haryana Himachal Pradesh Uttaranchal # 2006 Jammu & Kashmir Haryana Himachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Uttaranchal Punjab Himachal Pradesh Kerala Haryana Orissa Pondicherry # Daman & Diu # Uttaranchal Punjab Orissa Haryana Himachal Pradesh Kerala Manipur Punjab Kerala Punjab Haryana Orissa Manipur TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score Himachal Pradesh Meghalaya Orissa & Nicobar Bihar Andaman Islands # 2001 Nagaland Andaman & Nicobar Manipur Tripura Meghalaya Islands # 2002 & Nicobar Nagaland Uttaranchal Manipur Meghalaya Andaman Islands # 2003 Andaman & Nicobar Islands # Manipur Uttaranchal Nagaland Meghalaya Orissa Himachal Pradesh Uttaranchal Nagaland Meghalaya Orissa Manipur Nagaland & Nicobar Meghalaya Andaman Islands # 2006 Orissa & Nicobar Nagaland Manipur Meghalaya Andaman Islands # 2007 & Nicobar Uttaranchal Nagaland Manipur Meghalaya Andaman Islands # 2008 Haryana Andaman & Nicobar Nagaland Manipur Meghalaya Islands # 2009 & Nicobar Orissa Nagaland Uttaranchal Meghalaya Andaman Islands # 2010 Daman & Diu # & Nicobar Uttaranchal Bihar Nagaland Andaman Islands # Overall Competitiveness Ranking of 35 States and Federal Territories of India, TOTAL Rank Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy Score Score Score Score Score 2000 Manipur Uttaranchal Assam Jharkhand Chattisgarh Uttaranchal Assam Chattisgarh Bihar Jharkhand Tripura Assam Bihar Chattisgarh Jharkhand Assam Chattisgarh Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Assam Jharkhand Bihar Chattisgarh Tripura Assam Bihar Chattisgarh Jharkhand Tripura Assam Chattisgarh Bihar Tripura Jharkhand Assam Bihar Chattisgarh Jharkhand Tripura Bihar Assam Chattisgarh Jharkhand Tripura Bihar Assam Chattisgarh Tripura Jharkhand Assam Meghalaya Chattisgarh Jharkhand Tripura

23 ASEAN-10 Economies Indicators List (29 July 2012) to MACROECONOMIC STABILITY 1.1 Economic Vibrancy Gross Domestic Production GDP Growth GDP Per Capita Output Agriculture (Value Added) Output Industry (Value Added) Output Manufacturing (Value Added) Output Services (Value Added) Gross Domestic Savings Gross Fixed Capital Formation Consumer Price Index Inflation Money Supply Growth (M2) 1.2 Openness To Trade and Services Current Account Balance Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Openness To Trade International Tourism Receipts 1.3 Attractiveness To Foreign Investors Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Foreign Owned Companies Total Taxes on Foreign Owned Companies Discrimination Against Investors Levelness of Playing Field Transparency of Processes for Investors Nationalism as an Impediment 2 GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING 2.1 Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability Government Revenue Tax Revenue Tax Revenue/Government Revenue Government Consumption Expenditure External Debt International Reserves Foreign Assets International Monetary Fund Credit Budget Balance Tax Burden Money Supply (M2) Deposit Interest Rate Lending Rate Interest Rate Spread Official Exchange Rate 2.2 Institutions, Governance and Leadership Quality of Government Policies Government Effectiveness Government Environmental Protection Policies Quality of Central Bank/Monetary Authority Government Stability Government Responsiveness Quality of Political Leadership Political System Risk Legislature/Parliament (Functioning of Government System) Conduct of State Affairs by Key Institutions Institutional Sophistication Bureaucracy/Red Tape Corruption Cronyism State-Owned Enterprises 2.3 Competition, Regulatory Standards and Rule of Laws Corporate Governance Quality of Regulatory Environment Transparency of Government Monopolies and Cartel Public-Private Sector Competition Ease of Starting Business Barriers to Trade Intellectual Property Rights Protection Regional Competitiveness Quality of Judiciary Effectiveness of Legal System Integrity of Legal System Quality of Police Political Change Social Stability

24 3 FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS 3.1 Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency 3.1iBanking Efficiency Claims on Private Sector Domestic Credit to Private Sector Quality of Banking and Financial System Domestic Credit Provided by Banking Sector 3.1iiStock Market Efficiency Listed Domestic Companies Market Capitalisation Total Value of Stocks Traded Sovereign Rating Quality of Stock Market Regulatory Authority 3.2 Labor Market Flexibility Labour Force Unemployment Rate Cost of Production Labour High Quality Production Staff Cost of Management Staff High Quality Management Staff Skill Level Work Ethics Labour Turnover 3.3 Productivity Performance Agriculture, Value Added Per Worker Industry, Value-Added Per Worker Manufacturing, Value-Added Per Worker Services, Value-Added Per Worker QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE 4 DEVELOPMENT 4.1 Physical Infrastructure Population Local Road System Rail Facilities Airport Facilities Port Facilities Public Transport System Electric Power Water and Other Utilities 4.2 Technological Infrastructure Telecommunications System Telephone Main Lines Internet Subscribers Cellular Mobile Telephone Subscribers Internet and Services Supporting IT Personal Computers Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Expenditure High Technology Proficiency 4.3 Standard of Living, Education and Social Stability Literacy Rate Primary Schooling Secondary Schooling University and Post Graduate Education Human Development Index Health Expenditure Urban Population Urban Population Growth Public Security and Safety Freedom of Press Freedom of Speech Information Flows Freedom of Religion Religious Unrest Labour Unrest Racial Unrest Labour Activism Water Quality Air Quality Noise Pollution Traffic Congestion

25 Overall Competitiveness Ranking of ASEAN-10, TOTAL Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia TOTAL Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar Macroeconomic Stability Ranking, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Brunei Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Brunei Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Brunei Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Brunei Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Brunei Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Brunei MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Laos Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Myanmar Laos Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar Cambodia Vietnam Philippines Laos Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Laos Myanmar Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Laos Myanmar Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar

26 Government and Institutional Setting Ranking, GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Vietnam Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Indonesia GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Vietnam Cambodia Indonesia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Cambodia Indonesia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Cambodia Indonesia Laos Myanmar Philippines Cambodia Indonesia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Ranking, FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Brunei Indonesia FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Indonesia Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam Myanmar Cambodia Laos Indonesia Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia

27 Quality Of Life and Infrastructure Development Ranking, QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Vietnam Singapore Malaysia Brunei Thailand Vietnam QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Rank Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Philippines Indonesia Cambodia Laos Myanmar Overall Ranking for 79 Asian Economies, Year 2010 Rank Economy Score Rank Economy Score 1 Macau Gansu Taiwan Tamil Nadu Hong Kong Guizhou Guangdong Uttar Pradesh Singapore Ningxia Jiangsu Chandigarh Shanghai Sikkim Indonesia Qinghai Beijing Arunachal Pradesh Shandong Andhra Pradesh Zhejiang Mizoram Tianjin Dadra & Nagar Haveli Liaoning Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra West Bengal Inner Mongolia Gujarat Malaysia Daman & Diu Henan Pondicherry Thailand Uttaranchal Hebei Tibet Sichuan Rajasthan Delhi Jammu & Kashmir Fujian Goa Xinjiang Himachal Pradesh Hunan Nagaland Heilongjiang Bihar Hubei Laos Jilin Meghalaya Anhui Kerala Shaanxi Haryana Shanxi Andaman & Nicobar Islands Guangxi Manipur Jiangxi Punjab Chongqing Chattisgarh Vietnam Orissa Yunnan Assam Brunei Tripura Philippines Jharkhand Lakshadweep Cambodia Karnataka Myanmar Hainan