Canact OVERVIEW. Leading Indicator: Thirteenth Straight Drop. Leading Indicator: Thirteenth Straight Drop

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1 Catalogue E (Français F) SSN Friday, May 10, 1991 OVERVEW Leading ndicator: Thirteenth Straight Drop The composite leading indicator declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in February The rate of decline (-09%) was little changed from January, after a steadily worsening trend in the second half of 1990 Business Conditions Outlook Remains Pessimistic n April 1991, expectations for production during the following three months remained low, while the proportion of manufacturers reporting a lower than normal backlog of unfilled orders jumped significantly Little Change in Wages and Salaries The seasonally adjusted estimate of wages and salaries for February was little changed (-01%) following two consecutive monthly declines Demand for Labour Flat The Help-wanted ndex, which serves as an indicator of the demand for labour, remained constant in April after having declined steadily over the previous four months Farm nput Price ndex Continues to Rise The Farm nput Price ndex was up 05% in the first quarter, reflecting a sharp rise in the machinery and motor vehicles component S1AT3TOS ETAT8TQUE CANADA CANADA 10 Leading ndicator: Thirteenth Straight Drop The composite leading indicator declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in February The rate of decline (-09%) was little changed from January, after a steadily worsening trend in the second half of 1990 The housing index fell by 26% in February, less than the drop in January The decline was slower due to a sharp increase in sales of existing homes, and to a rise in housing starts in British Columbia and Quebec Employment in business and personal services also fell at a slower rate than in the previous few months Sales of durable goods continued to fall rapidly as incomes remained sluggish and employment dropped The decline in new orders for durable goods accelerated, reflecting weakness in export industries, as industrial production in the United States fell for the first three months of the year Shipments continued to decline relative to inventories The average workweek posted a fifth straight decline (-03%) (continued on page 2) Smoothed 1981 = Composite Leading indicator M j J JF L1EJRARY Stabshcs Stahsbque Canada Canada Canact

2 2 Leading ndicator: Thirteenth Straight Drop The TSE 300 index recorded its first increase since December 1989, while the real money supply was down slightly (-01%), after drops of more than 1% a few months ago The drop in the US leading indicator moderated to 05% in February from 08% in December and January For further information, order the Canadian Economic Observer (catalogue number ) or contact Current Analysis Section at (613) Business Conditions Outlook Remains Pessimistic On balance, Canadian manufacturers continued to show pessimistic views about business conditions in the second quarter n April, seasonally adjusted expectations for production during the following three months remained low About 40% of manufacturers believed that production during the following three months would remain at its current level The proportion of manufacturers who felt that upcoming production would be higher rose by one percentage point as did the proportion who felt that production would be lower Up 11 percentage points from January, 63% of those surveyed responded that their backlog of unfilled orders was lower than normal This drop in order backlogs is mostly concentrated in transportation equipment, primary metals, paper and allied products and chemical and chemical products industries The balance of opinion on unfilled orders (the difference between the "higher than normal" and the "lower than normal" answers) was close to the record low registered in the recession The percentage of Canadian manufacturers who reported that finished product inventory levels were about right rose slightly to 55% The proportion of manufacturers who felt that finished product inventory levels were too high remained constant at 42%, after having jumped 11 percentage points in January For further information contact ndustry Division at (613) PROVNCAL PERSPECTVES Business Conditions Survey, April 1991 Province Production expectations Backlog of unfilled orders lower than last 3 months* lower than normal (% of manufacturers) (% of manufacturers) April April April April April April Canada Newfoundland x x x x x x Prince Edward sland x x x x x x Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia x confident ml * This is raw data, unlike the seasonally adjusted data referred to in the article

3 Little Change in Wages and Salaries n February, wages and salaries remained virtually unchanged, dropping only 01%, following declines of 06% in January and 05% in December The decline was concentrated in four of the 14 industry groups Wages and salaries in manufacturing fell 20%, in line with the steadily declining trend begun in March 1990 Mines, quarries and oil wells registered a drop of 14%, more than offsetting the January increase Trade posted a fourth consecutive decrease (-08%), while wages and salaries fell slightly in health and welfare services Wages and Salaries, February Seasonally Adjusted % change, p(evious month -1' Wages and Salaries M J J JF :: 1 Province Wages and % change, % change, Salaries previous previous (millions of$) month year Canada 28, Newfoundland Prince Edward sland Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec 6, Ontario 12, Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta 2, British Columbia 3, The construction industry posted its first increase since August 1990 (19%) Wages and salaries increased 17% in transportation, communication and other utilities, after having declined since October 1990 Prince Edward sland, Manitoba and Alberta were the only provinces to show changes of more than 1% in wages and salanes (See accompanying table) For further information order Estimates of Labour ncome (catalogue number ) or contact Labour Division at (613) (FAX: ) Demand for Labour Flat The seasonally adjusted Help-wanted ndex for Canada remained unchanged at 74 in April 1991 After reaching a peak of 157 in April 1989, the index started to drop The declining trend accelerated during 1990, but slowed in 1991 n Quebec the Help-wanted ndex jumped 103% This was the first increase in nine months for Quebec n British Columbia the index rose 26%, again the first increase in nine months The index fell 61 % in the Atlantic provinces and 56% in Ontario, in both cases the third decrease in four months n the Prairie provinces the Helpwanted ndex showed a decline (-18%) for the seventh consecutive month i:,] Help-wanted ndex, Canada M J J J A For further information contact Labour Division at 3) ,,,,,

4 4 Farm nput Price ndex Continues to Rise n the first quarter, the Farm nput Price ndex grew 05% to a level of 1116, the fifth consecutive increase Of nine major components, three decreased and six rose The machinery and motor vehicles component registered a second quarterly increase (32%) Price increases were concentrated in licences and petroleum products Licence prices have been rising for the past nineteen years Prices for motor vehicles declined An increase in furnace oil prices contributed to the 57% rise in the supplies and services component of the FP This component has increased in eight of the past nine quarters The building and fencing component decreased 36%, the second decline in a row Prices for building materials for all three elements (building replacement, building repairs and fencing construction) fell The interest component dropped 49%, offsetting most of the increases in the other components of the FP This was the second straight decline for interest costs, which had been rising since 1987 For further information contact the Prices Division at (613) PUBLCATONS RELEASED FROM MAY 3 TO 9 Price: issue/subscription Division/title Period Catalogue Number Canada ($Cdn) United States sus Other Countries AGRCULTURE Cereals and Oilseeds Review February / / /193 Livestock Report April / /92 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Canada's nternational Transactions in Securities February /158 19/ /221 EDUCATON, CULTURE AND TOURSM Culture Communiqué - Government Expenditures on Culture /59 690/69 NDUSTRY Asphalt Roofing March /50 6/60 7/70 Cement March /50 6/60 7/70 Coal and Coke Statistics February / / /140 Factory Sales of Electric Storage Batteries March / ndustrial Chemicals and Synthetic Resins March /56 670/ New Motor Vehicle Sales August / / /202 Pack of Processed Corn Retail Trade January Rigid nsulating Board (Wood Fibre Products) March /50 6/ Shipments of Solid Fuel Burning Quarter Ended Heating Products March /19 575/23 675/27 Specified Domestic Electrical Appliances March /50 6/ Wholesale Trade January / / /202 NDUSTRY MEASURES AND ANALYSS Gross Domestic Product by ndustry February / / /178 NTERNATONAL TRADE Exports by Commodity February / / /771 mports by Commodity February / / /771 NVESTMENT AND CAPTAL STOCK Private and Public nvestment in Canada ntentions JUSTCE Juristat Service Bulletin- Children as Victims of Violent Crime, Vol11 No / /126

5 NEW FROM STATSTCS CANADA Children as Victims of Violence, Violence against children has become a major source of concern in Canadian society A new Statistics Canada publication, entitled Children as Victims of Violent Crime, makes an effort to assess the nature and extent of this problem Here are some highlights of the publication: Among child sexual assault victims, just over two thirds were girls and just under one-third were boys Males accounted for 98% of those accused of sexual assault n only very few cases was the accused a stranger to the victim: 8% of girls and 14% of boys (These data come from seven police departments They are not necessarily indicative of the national trend) Over two-thirds of all child victims of homicide for whom an accused was identified were killed by a parent Almost one-third of all child victims were killed before they reached the age of one Over 70% were killed before they were five years old For further information, order Juristat - Service Bulletin, Vol 11, No8, Children as Victims of Violent Crime (catalogue number ) or contact the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, at (613) Short-term Expectations Survey For the last 13 months, Statistics Canada has been canvassing a small group of economsts and asking them to forecast some important economic indicators Here are the most recent results of this survey The mean forecast for the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price ndex for April is 62% For the period between April and December 1990, the average of the mean forecasts and the average of the actual numbers were identical n the first three months of 1991, however, the forecasts show a negative bias The mean forecast for the April unemployment rate is 107% On average, mean forecasts have slightly underestimated the unemployment rate for the last twelve months The mean forecast for the trade balance in March 1991 is $651 million From March 1990 to February 1991, the average of the mean forecasts was 188% below the average of the actual trade balance For further information, contact Diane Lachapelle at (613) or Christian Lajule at (613) June 4 CENSUS OF AGRCULTURE

6 6 CURRENT TRENDS S % change, previous month 1 5 Gross Domestic Product % change, previous month 15 Composite Leading ndicator M J J JF Due to a pickup in activity in service-producing industries, real GOP at factor cost was unchanged in February, after declining steadily since October M J J JF The composite leading indicator declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in February 0 change, previous year Consumer Price ndex 11 Unemployment Rate 1 10 o ood A J J JM n March, the Consumer Price ndex posted a yearover-year increase of 63%, slightly higher than in February A J J JM n March, the unemployment rate rose to 105%, as a result of increased participation in the labour force Billions of dotlars Manufacturing 32 erl Billions of doltars 13 Merchandise Trade Exports Shipments 24 ' - 22 i i i i i i i i i tiiiiii i 1 ((11111 M J J JF Manufacturing shipments declined by 03% in February following sharper decreases in the previous three months Unfilled orders fell 14%, the seventh straight drop 9 mports titittitittit litti lit itil M j J JF Substantial decreases for exports and imports in February were consistent with the recession in Canada and the United States Nota' All ser/e5 are seasonaiy adjusted except the consumer pnce index

7 S LATEST MONTHLY STATSTCS Chaige Change Previous Previous Period Level Period Year GENERAL Gross Domestic Product ($ billion, 1986) February % -31% Composite Leading ndicator (1981= 100) Februaryt k -59% Profits of ndustrial Corporations ($ billion) 3rd Q % -295% DOMESTC DEMAND RetailTrade ($billion) February % -81% New Motor Vehicle Sales ('000 units) February % -73% LABOUR Employment (millions) March % -24% Unemployment Rate (%) March Participation Rate (%) March Labour ncome ($ billion) Februaryt % 21% Average Weekly Earnings ($) February % 62% NTERNATONAL TRADE Merchandise Exports ($ billion) February % -55% Merchandise mports ($ billion) February % -92% Merchandise Trade Balance ($ billion) February MANUFACTURNG Shipments ($ billion) February % -61% New Orders ($ billion) February % -56% Unfilled Orders ($ billion) February % -88% lnventory/ Shipments Ratio February Capacity Utilization (%) 4th Quarter PRCES Consumer Price ndex = 100) March % 63% ndustrial Product Price ndex (1986= 100) March % 09% Raw Materials Price ndex (1986= 100) March % -37% New Housing Price ndex (1986= 100) February % -110% Note: All series are seasonally adjusted with the exception of auerage weekly earnings and the price indexes * New this week 1N'FOMAT A Weekly Review Published by the Communications Division Statistics Canada Senior Editor: Greg Thomson (613) Editor: Alison Gardner (613) RH Coats Building, Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa, Ontario K! A 0T6 Catalogue: 1 l-002e Price: Canada: $250 per issue, $12500 per year; United States: US$300 per issue, US$15000 per year; Other Countries: US$350 per issue, US$17500 To subscribe: send money order or cheque payable to the Ret eiver General for Canada/Publication Sales, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K! A 0T6 To order by telephone dial: within Canada or from all other countries Published under the authority of the Minister of ndustry, Science and Technology All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior written permission of the Minister of Supply and Services Canzida

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