The Auckland Region s Economy: A Stock-take Report

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1 The Auckland Region s Economy: A Stock-take Report Prepared for the Auckland Regional Economic Development Group By Catherine Syme, Synchro Consulting November,

2 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 4 OVERVIEW: HIGH LEVEL INDICATORS AND TRENDS. 9 High level indicators of economic and general well-being... 9 Short term outlook. 12 Auckland region s population 13 THE DYNAMICS OF AUCKLAND S ECONOMY Industry structure 15 Where are Auckland s markets? 18 Our position in the global economy Company size and ownership.21 The labour force. 21 THE ENVIRONMENT FOR BUSINESS. 24 Ability to participate in the new economy. 24 Infrastructure.. 25 Democracy and Governance.. 28 Location of business activity in the Auckland Region.. 29 QUALITY OF LIFE.. 31 Distribution of income 31 Health and well-being 32 Quality of the environment 33 SKILLS OF THE LABOUR FORCE. 34 Education and training 35 Occupational Structure 38 Migration and skill loss...38 Entrepreneurship.39 CONCLUSION. 40 GLOSSARY.. 41 BIBLIOGRAPHY

3 The Auckland Region s Economy: A Stock-take Report: Introduction How well is the Auckland Region performing? If growth in GDP is the only measure of performance, then it is not doing well. Real GDP per capita fell during the 1990 s although it had recovered to 1990 levels by the end of the decade. But this is only part of the picture. New Zealand (including Auckland) compares poorly with other OECD countries on some other measures of well-being such as health and income distribution. The poor economic status of many Maori and Pacific Island people is the main reason for this. On the other hand Auckland is perceived as a great place to live with a magnificent natural setting; a multicultural life-style and diverse recreation and leisure opportunities. Should these attributes be seen as compensating for poor economic performance or can they be the foundation for creating a prospering economy? This report is a comprehensive stock-take of information about the Auckland regional economy, known to be available at November It was commissioned by the combined Auckland local authorities as an input to the development of an Auckland Regional Economic Development Strategy. The report draws together a wide range of information in an attempt to paint a picture of how the Auckland economy is structured, what factors may be influencing it, and how or to what extent the economy is contributing to the general well-being of the people of Auckland. Although the focus of the report is on the region s economy, it emphasises the strong relationship between economic prosperity; human well-being; and environmental quality. The report is mainly descriptive. Its main purpose is to set out what we know about the regional economy and its people, rather than to analyse the underlying causes of economic performance. Each part of the report also includes a small section on what we don t know or don t understand. These sections highlight information gaps in data as well as issues of debate. Where possible the report uses information that is specific to the Auckland Region. However often the only available information relates to the whole of New Zealand. Because Auckland accounts for 30% of New Zealand s population and about 35% of its GDP it is usually safe to assume that New Zealand-wide trends are relevant to the Auckland Region. Layout of Report The first section of the report summarises some high level trends and indicators. It starts with a review of some indicators of Auckland and New Zealand s performance, using both conventional economic measures and broader measures of well-being. This is followed by a brief review of the likely short-term prospects for the domestic economy, during a period of global downturn in economic activity. The section 3

4 finishes with an overview of Auckland s population structure and growth. This is important because the local population is both a vital market and the source of labour. The rest of this report provides more detail under each of the following headings. The dynamics of Auckland s economy Industry structure, enterprise characteristics, labour force characteristics and a discussion of our place in the global economy are covered in this section. The environment for business This section discusses the location of business activity in Auckland and describes characteristics of the environment within which business operates such as the state and cost of Auckland infrastructure. It also considers the evidence on whether Auckland is well-placed to participate in the new knowledge economy. Quality of life This section looks at factors affecting quality of life for Aucklanders. It focuses on how well different sectors of the community are faring, as well as looking at more general indicators of well-being such as the quality of our environment. Skills of the labour force Skills, education, training and entrepreneurship affect the quality of our human capital. This section looks at how skilled our workforce is, as well as the educational achievements of our children. Executive Summary Overview: High Level Indicators and Trends Auckland, along with the rest of New Zealand has experienced low economic growth rates over the last few decades. Real, per capita, income has not improved, for the Auckland region since Despite poor economic performance international studies rate New Zealand s growth competitiveness quite well suggesting unrealised potential. Auckland (and the rest of New Zealand) also rates quite well in international quality-of-life indices. But a high quality of life is not shared by all Aucklanders. In the short-term New Zealand is expected to avoid recession and achieve modest growth, during the current global economic downturn. The short-term outlook for Auckland is slightly better than for the rest of the country. This is because 4

5 Auckland s economy is dependent on its local market, and consumer spending is expected to remain strong. Auckland region s population has been growing at 2.5% per annum throughout the last century and will continue to grow much faster than the rest of the country. Auckland has a diverse ethnic mix that will become even more diverse over the next twenty years. Its population is ageing but at a slower rate than the rest of the country and at a slower rate than other OECD countries. The dynamics of Auckland s economy The two sectors of most importance to the Auckland economy are manufacturing, and business and financial services. The former is shrinking relative to other sectors, while the latter has rapidly expanded through the 1990 s. New Zealand is a trading nation, however its exports are still largely commodity based and the level of import penetration 1 is high. Recent strong growth in export earnings can be attributed to strong commodity prices rather than volume growth, and is not likely to be sustained. Auckland plays an important role as a gateway to international trade, however its economy appears to be less export oriented than the rest of New Zealand s. Also the price of non-food related manufacturing exports has fallen recently, suggesting that Auckland has not benefited directly from the country s export boom. Over eighty percent of Auckland businesses employ less than six people and firm size has been falling. While manufacturing businesses tend to be much larger than average, the rapidly growing business services sector is dominated by small businesses. Auckland s labour force 2 is well over half a million people. Labour force participation rates are high and unemployment 3 rates low, compared to the rest of the country. Maori and Pacific people in New Zealand, are more likely to be unemployed or employed in low skill jobs, and less likely to participate in the labour force. They make an important contribution to the informal economy and are more likely to take part in unpaid work. Maori and Pacific people will make up a much larger share of the labour force in twenty years time. 1 Import penetration means the value of imports relative to a country s GDP. 2 The labour force includes the working age population working full or part-time, or unemployed and actively seeking work. 3 The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labour force without work, actively seeking a job, and available for work. 5

6 New Zealand s labour productivity rates were low in 1994 compared to other OECD countries, and growth in productivity has been sluggish in the last five years. New Zealand has, however, experienced lower rates of unemployment than many OECD countries, and there may be a trade-off between high productivity and low unemployment. The Environment for Business On some measures New Zealand appears well equipped to participate in the new knowledge based economy. For example households and businesses have been quick to adopt new information technology. A recent international study has also found that New Zealand is a nation of entrepreneurs. Signs in other areas are less encouraging. For example, there is evidence that businesses have been slow to apply e-commerce in some areas. Auckland s water, energy, communications and transport infrastructure appear to be reasonably reliable, and water and energy prices low, compared with other cities around the world. However, population growth is beginning to outstrip capacity of both the transport and water systems, with increasing traffic congestion being a daily cost to the Auckland economy. Significant expenditure on publicly owned infrastructure is planned over the next years. Benchmarking of its transport system suggests that despite perceptions, congestion levels are lower than in many other cities. Expenditure on road transport as a proportion of regional income is high, however. The port and the airport play a pivotal role in linking Auckland and New Zealand with the rest of the world. They handle nearly three quarters of the country s imports and 40% of exports. New Zealand consistently scores well in international surveys of governance, suggesting a lean public sector and low administrative barriers to business, despite occasional publicity to the contrary. Economic activity is unevenly distributed across the region but patterns are changing. The CBD and Auckland City in general are growing more slowly than other parts of the region. 6

7 Quality of Life Auckland household incomes are higher than the rest of the country but also more disparate. Nationally income inequality has been growing in New Zealand. Pacific people and Maori are much more likely to have low household and personal incomes. Auckland has a high percentage of households living in areas that have been defined as deprived according to an index of deprivation. New Zealanders health has improved markedly over the last fifty years but health statistics have not kept pace with other developed countries. Maori and Pacific people have lower life expectancies than the rest of the population and do not score as well on other measures of health. The clean green image is important to Aucklanders but the evidence doesn t always support the image. For example water quality and air quality measures suggest room for improvement. The complex and sometimes poorly understood relationships between the environment and the economy are illustrated in issues such as climate change. Businesses may be affected by the physical effects of climate change, and by policies to mitigate climate change. There may also be economic opportunities for New Zealand associated with the Kyoto 4 protocol such as the development and exporting of energy efficient technologies. Skills of the Labour Force There is little information available that is specifically about Auckland, but we do know that Aucklanders tend to be slightly more educated than the rest of the country s population. New Zealand s workforce is slightly less educated than in other OECD countries, however skill levels are improving. Tertiary participation has been rapidly improving, and New Zealand s rates of participation are now high. Pacific and Maori people are less educated with fewer qualifications and less likelihood of progression to tertiary education, however Maori, in particular, have made progress on some indicators including both pre-school and tertiary enrolment. The proportion of science and technical graduates is quite low in New Zealand and there is some evidence of skill shortages in technical areas. 4 The Kyoto protocol is an international agreement, due to be ratified in mid 2002, to reduce net greenhouse emissions to 1990 levels. 7

8 New Zealand has relatively high levels of adult education and training, however it is not clear whether training is adequately targeted (in terms of both people and skills). There has been a lot of debate about brain drain over the last few years. Whilst there is disagreement about whether, or the extent to which it is occurring, most commentators agree that skilled migrants coming to New Zealand are not being employed in jobs appropriate to their level of skills and qualifications. 8

9 Overview: High Level Indicators and Trends High Level Indicators of Economic and General Well-being New Zealand was one of the richest countries in the world in the 1950 s but by 1999 it had dropped to 20 th in the OECD in terms of real GDP 5 per capita. Over this period New Zealand s real, per capita, growth rate has averaged 1% per annum compared with the OECD median of 2.1%. Australia s real per capita GDP, for example, is now 37% higher than New Zealand s. (Skilling 2001) Figure One: Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, Average growth OECD Australia New Zealand Source: Statistics New Zealand (note that this graph illustrates total GDP and not per capita GDP) During the 1990 s Auckland s real gross regional product (GRP) 6 grew at an average rate of 2.1% per annum. Auckland s population grew at the same rate over this period, 5 GDP or gross domestic product measure the sum of the money values of all final goods and services produced by the economy in one year. 6 Note that gross regional product figures are estimates and are less accurate than gross national product figures. 9

10 suggesting that economic growth has been mainly driven by population growth. This means that there was no improvement in real per capita income during the 1990 s. 7 During the first part of the decade real per capita income actually fell, as economic decline affected the manufacturing sector in particular. Since then real per capita income has recovered to 1990 levels. In 2000, Auckland s GRP was $36 billion just over 35% of the country s GDP. Per capita GRP was $30,374. (Andersen, 2001, and Competitive Auckland, 2001a.) Associated with low GDP growth has been low productivity growth; high current account 8 deficits; low household savings rates; and the poor performance of New Zealand s stock exchange (NZSE) over the last fifteen years. (eg Skilling, 2001) For example an article in the New Zealand Herald on October 31 st compared the performance of the NZSE with the ASX (Australian All Ordinaries index) since In New Zealand dollar terms the ASX is now twenty times the size of the NZSE, whereas in October 1986 it was only four times the size. Since this time the value of the NZSE has fallen from 90% to 37% of GDP, while the ASX has risen from 53% to 103% of Australian GDP. Ease of accessing credit has been blamed for New Zealand s poor savings record. The percentage of savings to household income peaked for New Zealand in 1981 at 12% but has now become negative. (Cook, 2001) These gross measures tell us little about how individuals within Auckland are faring. In later sections of the report we find that the gap between the richest people and the poorest people is growing and that Maori and Pacific Island people are disproportionately represented amongst the poorest. We also find that these groups will make up an increasing proportion of Auckland s population in future and in particular an increasing proportion of Auckland s working population. This suggests that the economic prosperity of Auckland depends, increasingly, on the wealth of those with the lowest incomes. But on the economic front the news is not all bad. For example there is some evidence that New Zealand (even in the age of information technology) is disadvantaged by its location, and that if this is taken into account its economic performance improves. For example a model used by Gallup and Sachs found that in 1995 New Zealand s geographically adjusted per capita income was US$10,000 higher than what might have been expected from their model. (Quoted in MED, unpublished paper). Another view is that economic performance is cyclical, that it is unusual for any country to perform well for a sustained period, and that New Zealand s turn may be next. For example the latest Global Competitiveness Report, just published, scored New Zealand well on growth competitiveness. The report, which assesses 75 7 If per capita income is expressed in US currency terms then Auckland s growth rate has been negative. The same is true for Australian cities but Auckland s performance has been worse. (Competitive Auckland, 20001a). 8 The current account is the value of New Zealand s transactions in goods, services, income and transfers with the rest of the world. 10

11 countries, measures both their current competitiveness (productivity) (CCI) and their future growth prospects (GCI). New Zealand ranked 20 th on CCI but it ranked 10 th on GCI, indicating a big gap between current performance and growth potential. The GCI measure included three underlying indices technology (NZ ranked 11 th ); public institutions (NZ ranked 4 th ) and macroeconomic conditions (NZ ranked 14 th ). (New Zealand Herald, 2001c) Auckland also performs well, compared with other cities, on cost of living. Competitive Auckland (2001a) quotes the Mercer cost of living survey which places Auckland at 100 th (where the most expensive city is 1 st ). Toyko is the most expensive city in the survey, while Sydney is also more expensive than Auckland, ranking 54 th. New Zealand and Auckland tend to perform better in international rankings when factors, other than purely economic, are included in the mix. For example New Zealand recently ranked 7 th in the world in the Mercer Quality of Living survey (2000). 9 This survey benchmarks cities against New York. Auckland ranked particularly well on its education and health services; its air and water quality; its relatively low crime rate; and its liberal, stable social and political environment (Competitive Auckland, 2001a). New Zealand also ranked in the top 10% in the World Conservation Union s Wellbeing index. Overall New Zealand ranked 14 th out of 180 countries ahead of both Australia and the US. This index is made up of two other indices. The first of these is the HWI (human well-being index). This includes measures of wealth, health, knowledge, community and equity. The second is the EWI (environmental well-being index) which assesses land, water, air, species and resource use. 10 Finally a recent Porter/Arthur Anderson report Best Cities for Business 2000 ranked Auckland as fourth for the Asia Pacific region (after Hong Kong, Sydney and Signapore). Auckland scored well on a number of measures including computers per 1000 people; internet connections per 1000 people; women as a percentage of the workforce; women managers as a percentage of the workforce; cost of office space; and the quality of life index. What we don t know or don t understand GDP has long been recognised as a flawed indicator of economic well-being because it includes some things that do not contribute to the wealth of a country and excludes other things, which do. For example money spent on pollution clean-up increases GDP, while the contribution of non-paid work does not affect GDP. GDP also tells us nothing about how that income is distributed amongst a country s population. In addition to these problems GDP is poor indicator of general well-being because it does not measure a range of factors that contribute to people s quality of life such as good health, a high quality environment, and strong social networks. 9 Although Sydney ranked one place higher at sixth. 10 Note that no country rated well on the EWI and that only three countries rated well on the HWI (Norway, Finland and Denmark). 11

12 Research has focused both on improving GDP measurement (for example by estimating the value of unpaid work) and developing alternative indicators of wellbeing. There is, however, a limit to what can be measured. Furthermore, alternative indicators will always be subjective. They typically involve measuring, or scoring quite different factors and then combining the values of these factors into an overall indicator, using some form of weighting. Putting aside the issue of GDP measurement, it is perplexing as to why we appear to rate well on some indicators and yet have failed to keep pace with growth rates of other nations. Short Term Outlook Fears of global recession, present before September 11 th, have intensified in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. The US is now officially in recession. Commentators expect that many Asian and European countries will also enter a recessionary period. Global recovery is expected by mid Optimism about reasonably quick recovery is based, partly, on confidence that monetary and fiscal authorities in major economies have moved quickly to provide conditions conducive to recovery. However commentators acknowledge the possibility that recession could be prolonged if there are further terrorist attacks, and/or if US consumer spending starts declining. Commentators expect New Zealand to be, at least partially, sheltered from the effects of global recession. However the longer the recession the more likely that New Zealand will be affected. On the negative side, our exports and tourism revenue are likely to be affected. Recent strong commodity prices are not expected to hold and exports to the US are likely to be affected. The US is an important export market for New Zealand accounting for 15% of merchandise 11 exports. Also if the US recession drags down other economies, then other markets will be affected. Tourism is also likely to be affected, and imports are forecast to increase. On the positive side, growth is expected to be driven by domestic demand. Low unemployment rates, strong wage and salary growth, net in-migration, and the possible return of skilled New Zealanders from overseas, are expected to support strong consumer spending. The result is that modest growth of about 2% 12 for the current year, rising to 3% in 2002/3, is expected. (Infometrics, 2001 and ASB, 2001) If these predictions are borne out this should be reasonably good news for the Auckland economy in the short term. As discussed in other parts of this report, Auckland appears to have strong reliance on servicing local markets, suggesting that it 11 Merchandise exports are the exports of manufactured products and commodities. It does not include services such as tourism. 12 There are, of course, a range of forecasts and some commentators expect the current year s growth to be lower than this. 12

13 may be more cushioned from the effects of global downturn than the rest of the country. Auckland Region s Population Auckland s population structure and growth rate are integral to its economy. The population of 1.2 million is an important source of domestic demand for goods and services. The geographic concentration of people also enables a concentration of economic activity that is important for a thriving economy. The ethnic mix and age structure may also have important implications for the economy s productive capacity. Auckland is home to 30% of New Zealand s population. Auckland has consistently grown faster than the rest of New Zealand, averaging 2.5% per annum throughout the 20 th century compared with the rest of New Zealand, which has averaged 1.4% per annum. During the period roughly half of Auckland s population increase has been from the natural increase and the other 50% from migration (overseas and the rest of New Zealand.) Even during the 1980 s when the rest of the country was experiencing a loss, Auckland continued to experience net in-migration. (Auckland Regional Council, undated) The period was one of rapid immigration. This has slowed down somewhat in the last five years. In 1996, half of all new immigrants to New Zealand were living in Auckland. (Auckland City Council et al, 2001) The main ethnic group in Auckland is New Zealand European, making up 61% of the population in However compared to the rest of country Auckland has a higher percentage of people of other ethnic origins. New Zealand Maori make up 12% 13 of the population; Pacific Island people 13% and Asian people 10%. There are also strong sub-regional differences. For example 30% of Manukau City residents are of Maori or Pacific heritage. (Garnier 1998 and Manukau City Council 1996) Compared with other countries New Zealand has a young average age. This is because the Maori and Pacific Island populations who have a much younger age structure. Compared with the rest of New Zealand, Auckland has a younger average age (32.1 years in 1996). Again there are regional variations with Rodney having the oldest average age and Manukau the youngest. A huge 40% of Manukau residents are under the age of 20. (Auckland Regional Council, undated and Manukau City Council, 1996) Key likely trends for the future include continued population growth, an increasing ethnic mix and a population which is ageing but at a slower rate than the rest of the country. 13 This is actually lower than for NZ as a whole throughout NZ Maori people make up 15% of the population. 13

14 Auckland is now the fifth largest city in Australasia and is growing faster (in percentage terms) than Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. (NZBCDS ) As shown in the following table by 2041 the Auckland region may accommodate nearly 40% of the country s population. Table One: Auckland s share of New Zealand s population, Auckland Region New Zealand Auckland Region percentage m 3.792m 31% m 4.33m 33% m 4.256m 39% ( Source: Auckland Regional Council, Auckland Demographic Profile) Populations throughout the Western world are ageing. In New Zealand this is true for all of the main ethnic groups but is much more pronounced for European and Asian people than for Maori and Pacific peoples. Nationwide by 2051 the median age for non-maori is projected to be 49.1 years compared with only 31.2 years for Maori. Because Auckland has a higher percentage of Pacific people its population is ageing more slowly. This has implications for the age and make-up of the labour force as discussed later in this report. (Auckland Regional Council, undated) What we don t know or don t understand Data presented in this section is based on medium population projections which assume medium levels of fertility and migration. Low and high population projections are also available. It is highly likely that actual figures will fall within this range (of low to high) but we don t know exactly where. The trends discussed in this section including increasing ethnic diversity and an ageing population, are unlikely to be affected by a higher or lower growth rate. 14 New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development 14

15 The Dynamics of Auckland s Economy Industry Structure The two biggest sectors in the Auckland economy are business and financial services and manufacturing. Each sector accounts for nearly one fifth of gross regional product and one fifth of regional employment. The manufacturing sector accounts for nearly 40% of New Zealand s total manufacturing output (in terms of value added). (Auckland Councils, 2001 and Johnson, 1999) Despite its size, Auckland s manufacturing sector has been shrinking relative to other sectors. In 1986 manufacturing accounted for 29% of regional jobs. In 1997 it accounted for 20%. In the early 1990 s there was considerable job loss in the manufacturing sector, due to economic restructuring and downsizing as tariffs and other protective measures were removed. Meat and wood processing industries, and import replacement industries were particularly hard hit. During the period nearly 13,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the Auckland region. Other sectors within the manufacturing sector have grown, however. The leading manufacturing sectors are currently chemicals and fabricated metals, which combined, account for 45% of manufacturing output. (Auckland Regional Growth Forum, 1998) The big growth sector of the 1990 s has been business and financial services. This diverse sector covers real estate, finance, insurance, IT, management consulting, and legal and accounting services. Although Auckland is sometimes described as New Zealand s financial capital 15 home to the stock exchange, banks, financial companies and brokers most of the employment is in real estate and business services (including management consulting, IT and legal and accounting services). Other sectors of importance to the Auckland region are trade and hospitality; transport and communications; and community and personal services. Each of these sectors account for roughly 15% of Auckland s GRP. (Auckland Councils, 2001) 15 Eg Auckland Regional Enterprise Board,

16 Figure Two: Industry Value Added Source: Statistics New Zealand/Infometrics Tourism is also an important part of Auckland s economy. It is not classified as a separate sector so can be difficult to quantify, however it has been estimated that in 1999 tourism contributed $1.661 billion to the Auckland economy about 5% of GRP and nearly one quarter of New Zealand s total income from tourism. 70% of visitors of visitors to New Zealand arrive in Auckland and 34% of international visitor nights are spent in the Auckland Region. For the year ended August 2001, 1.34 million visitors arrived in Auckland. This number has increased by 20% over the last five years. Growth in visitor numbers is forecast to continue at 6.7% per annum, however this does not take into account the effect of the September terrorist attacks. (Tourism Auckland, 2001) 16

17 Figure Three International Visitor Arrivals Source: Tourism Auckland Estimates of the economic benefits from the America s cup are interesting because they show the impact that one event can have on a small economy. The America s cup has been estimated to have generated $640 million of value added to the New Zealand economy (nearly three quarters of this in Auckland) and to have had a significant impact on New Zealand s GDP growth rate (of 4.7%) for (McDermott Fairgray et al, 2001) The recently developed Auckland economic model predicts growth in industry sectors for the Auckland economy. Over the period real GDP is forecast to grow by 116% in total. Most sectors within manufacturing are expected to grow at this rate or slower. The same is true for trade and hospitality. The big growth sectors are expected to be transport and storage; communication services (over 600% growth); finance and insurance; and cultural and recreational services. (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, 2001) What we don t know or don t understand Data about the structure of the local economy is sound. What we know less about is the significance of the structure and of structural change. For example do recent structural changes indicate a greater or lesser reliance on the local economy? Are our industries becoming more high tech or less high tech? In the absence of reliable data to answer these sorts of questions, structural change is often analysed by classifying industries and then tracking change. 17

18 Where are Auckland s Markets? There is no reliable method of calculating the percentage of goods and services that are consumed locally; exported out of New Zealand; and consumed in other parts New Zealand. Existing models which would enable an estimate of this, contain data that is five years old and of questionable quality for this purpose. In the absence of such data the main alternative is to analyse industry structure and change. The information that we have about Auckland, suggests that recent growth has come from industries that are servicing the local economy rather than overseas markets and the rest of New Zealand. Competitive Auckland (2001a) reports an estimated growth of 9.4% (in GRP) in industries primarily servicing the local economy between 1995 and During the same period, industries primarily exporting goods (internationally and to other parts of New Zealand), grew by only 2.9%. Recent high growth sectors have tended to be those servicing the local economy. Examples include real estate, finance, cultural and recreational services, and construction. Figure Four: Growth in Locally Oriented Versus Export Oriented Businesses 35 ($b) Industries primarily exporting goods or services domestically or internationally Industries Primarily Servicing the Local Region / /98 Source: McDermott Fairgray input/output model reproduced from Competitive Auckland (2001a) It should be noted that while this methodology gives us some indication, it is subject to error. For example many retailing and entertainment businesses rely on both local consumers and tourists. Also the time period for analysis is quite short. 18

19 Our Position in the Global Economy Reductions in barriers to trade and international capital flows, over recent decades, together with advances in information technology, have helped create a new global economy. Global trade has increased by about 331% over the last 33 years (due to growing populations and an increased propensity of countries to trade). In 1950 New Zealand accounted for 1% of all global trade, however this has now dropped to.26% (with New Zealand exports accounting for a mere.22% of all exports). Little information is readily available about Auckland s position in that global economy relative to the rest of New Zealand. (NZBCSD, 2000) What we do know about New Zealand s position in the global economy suggests that we could be doing better. New Zealand s high balance 16 of payments deficit has been a concern for some time. In 2000 the deficit was 7% of GDP. Recent figures show that it has improved significantly since that time. One commentator forecasts that, for the year ended March 2002, the balance of payments deficit will be 2.8% of GDP the lowest figure in ten years. It is forecast to worsen again, however. (Infometrics, 2001) Latest merchandise trade figures from Statistics New Zealand, put the value of New Zealand s exports at nearly $33 billion for the year ended September This represents an impressive 20% increase on the previous year. However recent export growth is mainly due to a favourable exchange rate and high commodity prices for meat, and, to a lesser extent, dairy products. High prices are not expected to be maintained. This also suggests that Auckland has not necessarily benefited from recent export growth. In fact the price of non-food manufactured goods has fallen over the past few years. (Statistics New Zealand, 2001b and Infometrics, 2001) New Zealand s export base is small in 1999, 119 companies accounted for 73% of merchandise export volumes by value. Also 60-70% of exports are still commodity based, making New Zealand vulnerable to downturns in commodity prices. New Zealand s exports are relatively low tech compared to other countries. One estimate classifies 12% of exports as high tech compared with an average for the rest of the OECD of nearly 50%. ( NZBCSD, 2000) New Zealand s performance in attracting foreign direct investment has not been startling. New Zealand accounts for.8% of global foreign direct investment flows. Its annual inflow of foreign investment as a percentage of GDP is about 4% (compared to Belgium, which attracts 17.4%). Most foreign investment has been in the form of overseas acquisition of New Zealand assets. The recent spate of international takeover bids has fuelled concerns about the shrinking size of New Zealand s stock exchange and the possibility that New Zealand companies are undervalued, making them targets for overseas bargain hunters. (NZBCSD, 2000, and Competitive Auckland, 2001b) New Zealand has a relatively high level of import penetration. Imports as a percentage of GDP are about 28% - compared with an OECD average of 19%. However for the 16 Balance of payments means the value of New Zealand s transactions in goods, services, income and transfers with the rest of the world; and changes in New Zealand s financial claims on assets, and liabilities to, the rest of the world. 19

20 year ended September 2001, Statistics New Zealand figures show a small trade 17 surplus (of less than $1 billion). (Cook, 2000, and Statistics New Zealand, 2001b) There has also been a lot of recent publicity and debate about brain drain the loss of highly skilled and talented people overseas. See the section below, Does Auckland have a Skilled Community? for more discussion. What we don t know or don t understand An obvious gap is the lack of information about Auckland s contribution to overseas exporting. Another gap is in information about foreign direct investment. Although we know the total level of foreign investment there is limited information about the form it is taking for example foreign acquisition of New Zealand assets versus foreign capital being used to establish new companies in New Zealand. There is also insufficient debate about foreign investment and how it can be useful to us. While higher levels of foreign investment are usually considered good there is a downside. Foreign investment indirectly worsens our current account, through payments of dividends and interest to overseas interests. It can also lead to job losses if foreign acquisition results in companies relocating overseas. There is also a lack of good data about the exit of firms from New Zealand. Information presented by Competitive Auckland (2001a) suggests that we are facing the following four pressures: Centralisation businesses who operate in New Zealand and offshore are rationalising their New Zealand operations as they centralise (overseas). Expansion New Zealand firms seeking to globalise are moving overseas and locating their headquarters in larger markets. Increased opportunity firms now exposed to global competition are choosing not to locate here because of the lack of factors such as the limited market and lack of financial incentive. Acquisition New Zealand firms are being acquired by overseas companies and the assets and workforce being shifted overseas. Although there is plenty of anecdotal evidence, there does not appear to be any hard data available to analyse these trends in more depth. There is also the need for a better understanding about the drivers and impact of these pressures. For example, if there is sufficient growth in small and medium businesses, so that firms that are exiting are being replaced by others who are expanding locally, then it may not be an issue. Company size and ownership Eighty two percent of businesses in the Auckland Region employ fewer than 6 people. In 1996, 25% of people were employed in firms employing fewer than six people while 23% were employed in firms employing more than 100 people. Between The trade balance is the balance of merchandise exports minus the value of merchandise imports. 20

21 and 1996 the absolute number of people employed in large firms decreased as large firms downsized. (Auckland Regional Growth Forum, 1998) Firm size has continued to decline since In 1996 the average size was 5.6 full time equivalent employees. By 1999 this had dropped to 4.7. (Competitive Auckland (2001(a)). There are some significant differences in firm size between sectors, with Auckland s too biggest sectors having very different characteristics. Manufacturing, and business and financial services, both account for nearly one fifth of regional output and employment. Manufacturing, however, accounts for only 8% of total businesses in the region, while business and financial services accounts for 37%. In other words manufacturing businesses tend to be much bigger. (Competitive Auckland (2001a)). The business and financial services sector also accounts for the lion s share of growth in small businesses over the last decade. In 1996, 95% of all businesses in this sector employed fewer than six people. (Auckland Regional Growth Forum, 1998) Although most employment is full-time, part-time employment is increasing. In 1973, 10.8% of the New Zealand workforce was in part-time employment this had risen to 23.3% in About 70% of those in part-time employment are female. (NZBCSD, 2000) What we don t know or don t understand Data is available from the business directory about the ownership structure of New Zealand enterprises, however it has not been sourced and analysed for this report. We do know that self-employment has been rising suggesting that more people are probably operating as sole traders. This is consistent with results of a study, discussed below, showing that New Zealanders are entrepreneurial (New Zealand Herald, 2001.) This study (called the GEM report) has also found that most New Zealand entrepreneurs have chosen this course, rather than being forced into it by unemployment or redundancy. The Labour Force In 1996 Auckland s labour force totalled 568,000 people 30% of the national labour force % of males aged 15 years and older were in the workforce, and 59% of females. Auckland s labour force participation rate is slightly higher than the national average. (Statistics New Zealand, 2001a) Maori made up 10.6% of the Auckland labour force, Pacific people 10% and Asian people 8%. Maori, and particularly, Pacific people have lower participation rates than the rest of the population. (Ministry of Pacific Island Affairs, 1999) According to the latest Household labour force statistics the European participation rate for New Zealand is 69% compared to 64% for Maori and 60% for Pacific peoples Note that these participation rates are not directly comparable with those in the previous paragraph because they are based on the Household labour force survey while the others are based on the census. 21

22 The Auckland unemployment rate is currently 5.1%. (September 2000). Unemployment for New Zealand rose between 1996 and 1999, however Auckland s rate has been lower than the rest of the country for that period. In fact, except for the downturn of the early 1990 s Auckland s unemployment rate has been below the national average in the last decade. There have, however, been regional differences for example Manukau has had a much higher unemployment rate than the rest of the region. (Auckland Councils, 2001, and Auckland City Council et al, 2001) Nationally Maori unemployment rates are much higher than non-maori possibly a major contributing factor to the lower socio-economic status of Maori in New Zealand. The Maori age standardised employment rate for the March 2000 quarter was 11.3% - nearly twice that for non-maori. When unemployment peaked in 1992, 8% of non-maori and 29% of Maori, were unemployed. Of particular concern are the high rates of youth unemployment and long-term unemployment amongst Maori. (Te Puni Kokiri, 2000a and 2000b). Pacific people s unemployment rates are also high and similar to those of Maori. Another significant difference between Maori and the rest of the labour force, is in the percentage that are self employed. In 1999, 23% of non-maori were self-employed compared to 8% of Maori. (Pacific peoples figures are also low in % were self-employed.) According to the Closing the Gaps report this gives some indication of the activity of Maori in the business sector in New Zealand. However despite lower rates of self-employment, the GEM report has found that Maori are just as entrepreneurial as other New Zealanders. New Zealand s overall participation and unemployment rates compare favourably with many other OECD countries 19 although they are not as good as the US, the UK and Denmark. (Treasury, 2001) Future projections for the make-up of Auckland s labour force reveal some interesting trends. The two main trends will be an ageing of the labour force and a distinct change in ethnic mix. Under a median population projection the Auckland labour force is expected to grow by 4% per annum until 2021, however the Maori labour force is projected to grow at 6.2% per annum, the Pacific peoples labour force by 10.4% per annum and the Asian labour force by 7.7%. In 20 years time, about 40% of new entrants to the labour force in Auckland will be non-european. If the Maori and Pacific characteristics of high unemployment, lower incomes, and employment in less skilled professions, prevail in 20 years time this could have profound implications for New Zealand s economy. The other major trend will be an ageing of the labour force. This is particularly true for New Zealand Europeans but all ethnic groups will follow a similar pattern. Those aged years made up 16% of the labour force in 1996 but are expected to make up 27% by It is important that employment prospects for this group are maintained, highlighting the importance of on-going training and life-long learning. (Statistics New Zealand, 2001a) 19 For example the Australian unemployment rate is now over 7% per annum. 22

23 Dependency ratios Total dependency measures the number of people of working age (15-64) compared to the number of people under 15 and over 64. Old age dependency measures the number of working age people compared to the number of people aged 65 and over. Total dependency ratios are expected to fall over the next 10 years and then start rising again by 2021 they should start to exceed current levels. Old age dependency ratios will rise over the next 20 years with accelerated growth beyond that period. Currently there are five people of working age for every person over 64 in New Zealand. By 2050 it is expected that there will only be two people of working age for every person over 64. (New Zealand Government, 2001) Unpaid work The labour force only includes people who are in paid employment (or officially unemployed). According to the 1996 census, 1.1 million people were involved in some form of unpaid work in the 4 weeks leading up to the census. Some of these people would also have been in the labour force and some would not. Women were are likely than men to undertake some form of unpaid employment both inside and outside of the home. (New Zealand Government, 2001) The third sector or community sector is becoming increasingly important in terms of delivering services in our society and the distinction between the business sector and third sector is becoming blurred. Yet much of the activity of the third sector is not included in official measures of economic output. Maori are more likely than non- Maori to be involved in unpaid work, and this is probably true for Pacific people too. This needs to be taken into account in interpreting statistics about labour force participation rates and unemployment. Apart from what we know about unpaid work there is also anecdotal evidence that Maori have developed important skills that they are applying through their involvement in the third sector. Labour Productivity New Zealand s growth in labour productivity has been low throughout the 1990 s. In 1994 New Zealand ranked 19 th out of 22 OECD countries in terms of GDP per hour worked. (Ministry of Research, Science and Technology) Although a more recent comparison is not readily available we do know that labour productivity 20 only grew by an average of.8% per annum during the period This rate was one of the lowest in the OECD with only Mexico and Switzerland performing worse. The Australian growth rate was 2.5% per annum (average) exceeding even the US rate of 2.2%. New Zealand s low productivity growth rate, does, however, need to be interpreted alongside its low unemployment rate. Australia, in contrast, has had a faster rate of growth in wages and salaries but a higher unemployment rate. 20 Measured in terms of output per person employed. 23

24 What we don t know or don t understand We don t fully understand why Maori and Pacific people s unemployment rates are so high, although there are strong indications that it is related to lower educational achievements and less training. Maori, in particular, were affected by the economic restructuring of the early 1990 s which resulted in a loss of low skilled manufacturing jobs. There is also a need to establish better measures of the contribution of the third sector to our economy and the contribution of the people operating within that sector. Without this information it is easy to underestimate the contribution and skills of some groups especially women, Maori and Pacific people. The Environment for Business Ability to participate in the new economy The emergence of the new economy or the knowledge-based economy has received much attention in recent years, fuelled by the observation that the US economy appears to have defied business cycle laws by achieving a long period of sustained growth. The most popular explanation for this is the emergence of a new, technology based economy which is not subject to the same cyclical forces of a more traditional manufacturing economy. (The current recession is evidence against this especially as signs of recession were apparent before September 11 th.) A key question is how well is New Zealand placed to participate in this new knowledge based economy? There is limited information available about this, mainly because it is not clear what factors are most important, and because factors such as a capacity for innovation are extremely difficult to measure. The limited information that is available tends to relate to New Zealand as a whole, rather than Auckland in particular. On the plus side commentators point out that New Zealand has been quick to embrace personal information technology use. For example compared to other OECD countries New Zealand has a relatively high number of computers and internet connections per thousand people. (NZBCSD, 2000). Also a recent major study on entrepreneurship, involving 29 countries (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor or GEM) has found that New Zealand is one of the most entrepreneurial countries in the world. It also found that entrepreneurs tend to be Auckland based. This study is discussed more fully under the last section Does Auckland have a Skilled Community? On the negative side other commentators point out that New Zealand has a small ICT (information and communication technology) producing sector (although so has Australia); that its exports tend to be low tech and that manufacturing in general tends to be low tech. The low proportion of science graduates is also often highlighted. 24

25 A recent report from the OECD (2001), on the new economy suggests that the key to benefiting from ICT is to foster its use in business. In other words it is not necessary to have an ICT producing sector but to apply e-commerce to business operations. Although the OECD report shows that New Zealand performs well in terms of the number of secure servers per million inhabitants (an indicator of the diffusion of electronic commerce ) some commentators claim that New Zealand has been slow to apply e-commerce in business to business (B2B) transactions. (ASB, 2000) New Zealand s low level of R&D expenditure is often bandied around as another indication that it is poorly equipped for innovation. New Zealand spends just over 1% of GDP on R&D compared with nearly 4% for Sweden. Patents per million population are also low 51 for New Zealand compared with 119 for Denmark and 202 for Finland. (Competitive Auckland, 2001b) But there is another view, that for a small country such as New Zealand, technology and incremental innovation is much more important than investment in basic R&D. (Eg Perry, 2000) Such factors are harder to measure. Interestingly the OECD report also rates New Zealand well in terms of barriers to entreprenuership. New Zealand ranks 5 th for 21 countries in 1998 ahead of the US and Scandinavian countries, although behind the UK, Canada, Australia, and Ireland. What we don t know or don t understand This section has already identified many of the gaps. Although we have a good idea that a highly skilled workforce and capacity for innovation are important for participation in the new knowledge economy, our understanding is incomplete. The OECD work, for example, provides some insights but it is not clear how applicable it is to a small and geographically isolated economy such as New Zealand. New Zealand appears to perform quite well on many of the OECD criteria and yet its economic performance is lagging. Infrastructure Cheap, efficient, and reliable infrastructure is important to a competitive economy. Auckland s water, energy, communications and transport infrastructure appear to be reasonably reliable, and water and energy prices low, compared with other cities around the world. However, population growth is beginning to outstrip capacity of both the transport and water systems, with increasing traffic congestion being a daily cost to the Auckland economy. Significant expenditure on publicly owned infrastructure is planned over the next years. This expenditure is necessary to ensure reliable services and to protect the quality of our environment. It will be important to ensure, however, that environmental improvements are achieved, and that the cost does have a major impact on households and businesses. 25

26 Road transport Ministry of Transport staff estimate that $3.5 billion may be spent on Auckland roads over the next 15 years if Auckland traffic continues to grow at its current pace and if all growth is accommodated by new roads. The more likely alternative is that investment in passenger transport systems will substitute for some roading investment. A report undertaken by Ernst and Young, estimated that congestion costs the Auckland economy about $185 million per annum in time delays and increased transport costs (.4% of GRP). If transport induced stress is factored in, the figure is considerably higher ($570 million). This figure still does not take into account the personal opportunity cost of time for people stuck in traffic. Although Auckland s increasing levels of congestion are well recognised, interestingly Auckland seems to perform better than many cities internationally. For example Decision Lab (2000) applied the methodology of a Sydney study to find that New Zealand ranked 1 st out of 7 cities for journey to work time and average speed. The other cities were Sydney, Vancouver, Atlanta, New York, London, Frankfurt, Singapore, and Kuala Lumper. However, even if Auckland is less congested than other international cities, it is more congested than other New Zealand cities and this places it at a disadvantage. For example, access to the port is affected by congestion, and may result in some businesses choosing alternative ports. A report on business location in the region found that access through local streets appears to be an important factor in terms of business location and one on which the Auckland Region appears to do quite well. (Johnson, 1999) Bachels et al, (1999) in a study benchmarking New Zealand cities with other international cities found that Auckland spends 15.5% of its GRP on total passenger transport cost (ie vehicles and public transport). This is high compared to other cities. The Australian average is 13.2%; the US average is 12.4% and the Asian average 12.2%. New Zealand s investment in roading per capita is low but when adjusted for earning power New Zealand was middle of the international sample. These statistics suggest some room for improvement in the efficiency of transport systems. Water Auckland water is provided to businesses and households at a relatively low price, however there have been constraints on supply particularly during periods of drought. It has been estimated that Auckland needs to spend $4.7 billion on water related infrastructure (water supply, sewerage and stormwater) over the next 17 years. This level of investment is unprecedented and the challenge will be to fund this expenditure in ways that do not place undue burden on Auckland households and businesses. 26

27 Ports and Airport Auckland plays a pivotal role in linking the domestic economy with the rest of the world. The Ports of Auckland (POA) and the airport combined handle 73% of the country s imports by value, and 40% of exports. (McDermott Fairgray, 2000) In the year ended June 1999 the POA handled 28% of New Zealand s exports by value and 48% of imports ($6.4 billion and $11.5 billion respectively). 95% of Auckland s manufactured exports go through the POA. In an evaluation of the POA on Aucklands economy it was estimated that the POA facilitates nearly $10.6 billion worth of economic activity in the Auckland region both through its operation as a port and through the imports and exports that it handles. This suggests that one third of regional economic activity is facilitated 21 by the POA. Nationally it is estimated that the POA facilitates $13.24 billion of total economic activity about 13% of total output. (McDermott Fairgray, 1999) Telecommunications New Zealand s deregulated telecommunications market has delivered lower cost national and international calls. However an OECD study, quoted by the Ministry of Economic Development (2001), shows that New Zealand is not amongst the cheapest countries for telecommunications. New Zealand ranked 23 rd out of 30 countries for costs for national calls for business. However the study also showed that New Zealand has high fixed costs and low unit costs. Because average business usage in New Zealand is much higher than assumed by the study, the results under-estimate New Zealand s competitiveness. Energy Data from the OECD website suggests that New Zealand s energy prices for businesses are relatively low. The current price of electricity, in particular, is very competitive, and is slightly cheaper than in the United States. This does not, however, take into account price increases as a result of the recent shortage. Petrol prices are more expensive than in the US but much cheaper than European countries. What we don t know or don t understand While Auckland s infrastructure appears to be of reasonable quality and cost we don t know how much future upgrading is going to affect business costs. We also do not have a clear picture of the quality of local infrastructure compared to other cities overseas. 21 The report clearly points out the difference between facilitated and dependant some of this activity will be dependant on the POA in that it would not take place if the POA was not there. However much of this activity makes use of the POA and would probably face higher prices if the POA did not exist, but is not dependant as such. 27

28 Democracy and Governance About 18% of New Zealand s workforce is employed in the public sector in New Zealand. This is one of the lowest rates in the world. (Cook, 2000). This statistic may tend to under-represent the size of the public sector however, because of a relatively high level of contracting out. According to the New Zealand Treasury, New Zealand consistently scores well in international surveys of governance. For example in the OECD report quoted above where New Zealand ranked well in terms of barriers to entrepreneurship, it ranked quite well on all three factors underlying this barriers to competition ; regulatory and administrative opacity and administrative burdens on startup. (Treasury, 2001) In a similar vein the New Zealand Herald (2001b) recently reported the results of a survey on compliance costs for small to medium businesses in 11 OECD countries. New Zealand had the lowest average compliance costs and the third lowest costs per employee. The average business in the study spent US$27,000 per annum, whilst the average for New Zealand businesses was US$8900 per annum. Figure Five: Annual Compliance Costs Per Employee country average Australia Austria Belgium Finland Iceland NZ Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Source: OECD/Herald Graphic 28

29 What we don t know or don t understand There is little data specifically related to local government. Anecdotally the Resource Management Act is sometimes cited as an impediment to business activity. However overall there is no reason to assume that local government performs worse than central government. Local government has undertaken the same reforms to central government over the last 12 years, and has similar accountability requirements. Location of Business Activity in the Auckland Region Economic activity is unevenly distributed across the Auckland region. The following table shows the percentage that each local authority area contributes to total regional output. Table Two: Sub-regional distribution of economic activity Auckland City 50% Manukau 20% North Shore 14% Waitakere 8% Rodney 4% Papakura 3% Franklin 1% Source: Auckland City Councils, Business and Economy, 2001 Key facts to note about location characteristics and trends are:. Locational patterns are changing with dispersion and conglomeration forces both in evidence. Dispersion of economic activity is the over-riding trend. The CBD is declining in importance in 1991 it accounted for 14.9% of the region s jobs. By 1996 it accounted for 13.5%. Employment in Auckland City is growing more slowly than employment in the rest of the region. (Bachels et al, 1999) Nearly half of all economic activity in the Auckland area is located outside commercial and industrial centres. This pattern is similar to that of many North American cities. (Johnson, 1999) At the same time there is strong growth in some sub-regional centres. Johnson s report identifies three growth areas. These are the Albany Basin; The South Eastern Isthmus; and East Tamaki. Manukau and Auckland Cities are strongly reliant on manufacturing and related activities, although manufacturing has declined in importance for Auckland City. Business and Financial services is the biggest sector in Auckland City. The North Shore, Waitakere and Rodney all have an economic base that is centred around servicing their local populations although each also plays a regional role in some industries. (Johnson, 1999) 29

30 There is some evidence of clustering of related industries. For example Waitakere City has a strength in boat building and Manukau City in food and beverages. In both cases the clusters are not confined to manufacturing but extend into related sectors. (Johnson, 1999) There is plenty of vacant land or land capable of redevelopment in all parts of the region. Auckland City is the most constrained, however even here nearly 20% of zoned land is vacant or has development potential. (Auckland Regional Growth Forum, 1998) Figure Six: Share of Auckland Region s Employment Growth by Territorial Authority, Source: Business Directory Update, 1997 and 1996 (Reproduced from Regional Growth Forum 1998) Because population and business activity has followed different geographic patterns many people in the region do not live and work in the same area. In 1996, 77% of people who lived in Auckland City also worked there. This was the highest figure for all local authorities. Of the four cities Waitakere had the lowest percentage of people working locally 41% although this was higher than in (Auckland Regional Growth Forum, 1998) The high number of workers commuting out of the city to work is a concern for some local authorities. For environmental and lifestyle reasons some local authorities consider that it would be highly desirable to have more local job opportunities, to achieve a better match between the local labour force and local jobs. 30

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