Metro 2040 Performance Monitoring Update

Transcription

1 5.2 Metro 2040 Performance Monitoring Update SECTION G AMENDMENT Lauren Klose REGIONAL PLANNER Regional Planning Committee March 10, 2016

2 Background 2

3 55 15 Performance Measures Key Summary Measures Complete set of improved measures will be provided in the proposed Performance Monitoring Guideline Amending Metro 2040 Section G 3

4 PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 1) Create a Compact Urban Area 1. Regional Land Use Changes 2. Urban Containment 3. Residential Growth in Priority Areas 4

5 PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 2) Support a Sustainable Economy 1. Employment Growth in Priority Areas 2. Employment Accessibility 3. Industrial and Mixed Employment Area Use 4. Agricultural Area Use 5

6 PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 3) Protect the Environment and Respond to Climate Change 1. Ecosystem Health 2. Climate Change Mitigation 3. Climate Change Preparedness 6

7 PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 4) Create Complete Communities 1. Housing Affordability 2. Housing Diversity 3. Complete Communities and Health Status 7

8 PROPOSED KEY SUMMARY MEASURES (GOAL 5) Support Sustainable Transportation 1. Travel Mode Choice 2. Road/Vehicle Use and Safety 8

9 Improved Annual Reporting 9

10 Adopting a Performance Monitoring Framework 10

11 Performance Monitoring Online Dashboard 11

12 Process Metro 2040 Amendment Framework Adoption Initiation Draft 1 st and 2 nd Readings Draft Notification Draft 3 rd and Final Readings Final Adoption 12

13 Questions?

14 Census First Impressions METRO VANCOUVER S REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY Terry Hoff SENIOR REGIONAL PLANNER, METRO VANCOUVER Regional Planning Committee March 2017

15 Statistics Canada Census Benchmark data for planning and monitoring Metro Vancouver role in acquisition and distribution Thematic Reports 2

16 Population in Canada s Metropolitan Areas 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000, , Total 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000, , ,000 (9%) 70% of Canada s Growth 1,000, , , ,000 - Toronto Montréal Vancouver Ottawa - Gatineau Calgary Edmonton 3

17 Metro Vancouver s Historic Growth 5 year intervals 250, , , ,000 50,

18 Metro Components of Population Growth 40,000 Growth Immigration (79%) Natural Increase (28%) Inter Provincial (6%) Intra Provincial (-14%) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Net Immigration Births Natural Increase Net Inter Provincial ,000 Deaths Net Intra Provincial -20,000 5

19 Immigration to Metro Vancouver by Origin 12,000 10,000 8,000 China China, People's Republic of India Iran Korea, Republic of Philippines United Kingdom and Colonies United States of America 6,000 Philippines 4,000 India 2,000 Korea Iran 0 US

20 Subregional Growth Distributions 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% South of Fraser Central Areas Tri-Cities Metro 2040 Projected Share North Shore Census Share Ridge Meadows 7

21 Municipal Population Growth , , ,000 Vancouver 400, ,000 Surrey 200,000 Burnaby 100,000 Richmond Coquitlam Langley

22 Projected and Actual Growth Regional Shares 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Burnaby Coquitlam Delta Langley City Langley Dist Lion's Bay Maple Ridge New North Van City North Van Dist Pitt Meadows Port Coquitlam Port Moody Richmond Surrey Vancouver West Vancouver White Rock U.E.L. "Metro 2040 Projected Share " Census Share

23 Net Dwelling Unit Growth Distribution 70,000 Units 10

24 Metro 2040 Growth Objectives and Targets 99% within the Urban Containment Boundary to % within Urban Centres to % within Transit Corridors (existing and future) to % within the General Urban Areas to % in Rural, Agricultural to

25 Urban Centres Roughly estimate 39% of dwelling unit growth was within Metro 2040 Urban Centre boundaries Urban Centre Unit Growth Share of Metro Unit Growth Metro 2040 Target for 2021 Urban Centres Total About 27,000 39% 40% Metro Core About 11,000 16% 8% Surrey City Centre About 2,100 3% 7% Regional Centres About 9,000 13% 14% Municipal Centres About 4,600 7% 12% 12

26 Major Transit Corridors Frequent Transit Network 2016 including Urban Centre locations About 50% of Metro dwelling unit growth proximate to FTN includes Urban Centre locations 26% outside UCs 13

27 General Urban Areas 34% of dwelling growth Includes future transit corridors 15-20% in the remaining urban lands within the UCB 6,000 hectares 14

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29 Municipal Population , , , , , , ,000 Vancouver Surrey Burnaby Richmond Coquitlam Langley Township Delta North Vancouver District Maple Ridge New Westminster Port Coquitlam North Vancouver City West Vancouver Port Moody Langley City White Rock Pitt Meadows Greater Vancouver A Bowen Island Anmore Lions Bay Tsawwassen First Nation Belcarra 2001 Base Growth 2006 Growth 2011 Growth

30 5.5 Anticipating the Next 100 Years METRO VANCOUVER S REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGIES Terry Hoff SENIOR REGIONAL PLANNER, METRO VANCOUVER Regional Planning Committee March 2017

31 Growth Forecasting Purpose / Applications Metro Planning and Monitoring Utilities Demand Modeling Transportation Demand Modeling Coordinating Regional and Municipal Plans Planning Context for Regional Agencies / Businesses 2

32 Growth Modeling Method Scenarios and Assumptions Modeling Techniques Data Sources and Quality Validation

33 Long Term Regional Development Scenarios Base Case Scenario Alternative Scenarios Metro 2040 goals and strategies Contextual factors are resilient and relatively stable Includes some trending of primary and contextual factors Includes a high - low range of variability Reference point for alternative scenarios Land capacity, saturation Transportation, Transit Service Coverage Economy global, national, regional - boom or bust employment Environment climate change, catastrophic events Political global, national, regional, community

34 Base Case Scenario - Population Demographic Cohort Projection Model - Annual Modules for each subregion Natural Increase birth, death rates baseline, trends and projections Immigration regional share, age composition trends Inter Provincial Migration regional, municipal in/out allocations Intra Provincial Migration regional, municipal in/out allocations Inter Municipal Migration in/out reallocations

35 Natural Increase - Births Births Fertility rates / trends and projections by population of women of child bearing age Trends , projected toward stable rate Deaths Longer life span, aging population 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Under 25 0%

36 Immigration - Municipal Distribution 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Vancouver Surrey 15% Burnaby 10% 5% Richmond Coquitlam Langley 0%

37 Domestic Migration Inter-Provincial Average net annual regional inflow +2,500 and declining through to 2121 Intra-Provincial Average net annual regional outflow -4,000 increasing to -14,000 (0.28%) through to 2121

38 Inter-Municipal Migration Trends establish baseline reference Assume this pattern generally continues, but at a decreasing rate, through the projection period Out to Other Municipalities Vancouver In From Other Municipalities

39 Baseline Projections - Growth Components 500,000 International Migration 400, , ,000 Metro Growth 100,000 Inter Provincial Migration Intra Provincial Migration (100,000) (200,000) Natural Increase (300,000) 10

40 Base Case Scenario Land Capacity Established Metro 2040 land use designations assumed static some minor amendments Net Urban land = 43,000 ha, ~4,000 5,000 ha remaining for new urban 100% redevelopment post 2030s Assume that the land base, market and political governance will accommodate projected development and densities

41 Metro Vancouver Baseline Scenario Population Growth 12

42 Draft Scenario Population Growth Subregions North Shore (N Vans, W Van, Lions Bay) North East Sector (Coquitlam,Port Coq, Port Moody, Anmore, Belcarra) South of Fraser (Surrey, Langleys, Delta, White Rock) 2011 Base Growth to Central (Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, New West, UBC/UEL) - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

43 Baseline Scenario Housing Development Units 897,000 1,450,000 2,000,000 Apartments Row Housing Multi Unit Semi-detached Single Detached

44 Share of Total Dwelling Units Apartments Single Detached Multi Unit Semi-detached Row Housing 15

45 Regional Residential Densities persons per hectare or 13 units per hectare persons per hectare or 20 units per hectare persons per hectare or 24 units per hectare persons per hectare or 27 units per hectare Current City of Vancouver density 16

46 Alternative Growth Scenarios Baseline Scenario Projection Land Base - UCB / ALR Economic Shifts Climate Change Political Movements Capacity / Density Saturation Working Scenario 17

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50 Metro 2040 Growth Concept

51 Stats Can Population Forecast Scenarios Canada High, medium and low scenarios Migration Regional Economies 62 Million 51 Million 40 Million 0 22

52 Comparative Regional Growth Forecasts to ,700,000 3,600,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 3,300,000 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 Stats Can Med High CBC Urban Futures Metro 2040 BC Stats P2014 Stats Can Low 23

53 Employment Assume regional economic sectors and activity relatively consistent Assume increasing technology / capitalization and aging population decreases regional employment to population ratio.53 to.44 Assume FTE remains generally consistent Assume subregional employment growth allocations by sector in association with existing sector locations and population related employment demand Metro jobs from 1.2 million in 2011 to 2.07 in 2121

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