Economic Development Framework of Small Communities in Canada

Transcription

1 Economic Development Framework of Small Communities in Canada Prepared by: David Bruce, Rural and Small Town Programme, Mount Allison University Laura Ryser, Geography, University of Northern British Columbia Greg Halseth, Geography, University of Northern British Columbia and Kelly Giesbrecht, University of Northern British Columbia Prepared for: Jessica Yen Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Ottawa February 2005

2 Table of Contents Page Number Executive Summary v 1.0 Introduction Methodology Defining Rural and Small Town Places Clustering of Communities by Economic Activity Framework for Understanding Economic Change Case Studies Agriculture: Wood River, Saskatchewan Fishing: Trout River, Newfoundland and Labrador Forestry: Port Clements, British Columbia Mining: Fermont, Québec Tourism: Ear Falls, Ontario Manufacturing: Gold River, British Columbia Dynamic Services: Valemount, British Columbia Non-market Services: Springhill, Nova Scotia Retirement: Preeceville, Saskatchewan Dual Specialization: Churchill, Manitoba Non-Specialized: Digby, Nova Scotia Conclusion Bibliography 151 Appendices Appendix A Summary of Key Socio-Economic Census Characteristics Which Indicate Stage of Economic Development Activity 160 Appendix B - Summary Tables Showing Change in Percent Values for Each Socio-Economic Characteristic for Each Economic Sector 163 i

3 List of Tables Page Number Table 3.1 CMA/CA Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) 12 Table 3.2 Distribution of Communities by MIZ Designation and Population Group, Less than 5,000 Population, Incorporated and Unincorporated Communities, Canada 13 Table 4.1 Functional Classification of Small Towns - Everitt and Gill 25 Table 4.2 ERS Typology for Rural Diversity I 26 Table 4.3 ERS Typology for Rural Diversity II 27 Table 4.4 Hawkin s Typology of Small Towns Across Canada 28 Table 4.5 Range of Approaches for Clustering Small Towns 29 Table 4.6 Degree of Reliance of Rural Communities on the Forest Products Sector by Province, Table 4.7 Distribution of Communities Heavily Reliant on the Forest Products Sector by Size of Community, Table 4.8 Location Quotients of Relative Intensity of Employment by Industry in Rural and Small Town Areas Compared to the Province 31 Table 4.9 Comparison of SIC and NAICS Classification Schemes Used by Statistics Canada for Employment 33 Table 4.10 Variables for Community Classification Census, Statistics Canada 37 Table 4.11 Economic Type of Community by % of Labour Force Employed in Specific Sectors (and % age 65+), All Communities, Table 4.12 Distribution of Economic Type of Community by (25% or more of the labour force employed in specific sectors and % age 65+), Communities with Weak and No MIZ Status, and Communities with Less Than 2,500 and with 2,500-4,999 Population 40 Table 5.1 Changes of Residence Related to Life Cycle Stages 43 Table 5.2 Model of Community Development - Lucas (1971) 45 Table 5.3 Model of Community Development - Bradbury (1988) 46 Table 5.4 Population Life-Cycle Model for Resource Towns - Bone 47 Table 5.5 Ability of Towns to Sustain the Life Cycle Through Revitalization / Diversification 47 Table 5.6 Model of Community Development - Halseth and Sullivan (2002) 48 Table 5.7 The Recovery Process 50 Table 5.8 Freudenberg s and Gramling s Framework for Assessing Impacts of OCS Development 53 Table 5.9 Butler s Community Development Model for Tourism Towns 54 ii

4 Page Number Table 5.10 Changes in Experienced Labour Force and Herfindahl Index of Rural Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCS), Canada, 1986 to Table 5.11 Change in Economic Sector Classification, 1991 to 2001, Communities with Population Loss Table 5.12 Summary of Rural and Small Town Places in Decline, Population Changes for all Communities with 1991 Population of 50-4,999, Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Wood River, Table Change in Characteristics for Agricultural Communities in Decline 80 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Trout River, Table Change in Characteristics for Fishing Communities in Decline 85 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Port Clements, Table Change in Characteristics for Forestry Communities in Decline 91 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fermont, Table Change in Characteristics for Mining Communities in Decline 97 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Ear Falls, Table Change in Characteristics for Tourism Communities in Decline 105 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Gold River, Table Change in Characteristics for Manufacturing Communities in Decline 111 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Valemount, Table Change in Characteristics for Dynamic Services Communities in Decline 119 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Springhill, Table Change in Characteristics for Non-Market Communities in Decline 125 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Preeceville, Table Change in Characteristics for Retirement Communities in Decline 130 Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Churchill, Table Socio-Economic Characteristics of Digby, Table A-1 Table A-2 Table A-3 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , All Communities with 2001 Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 160 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , All Communities with 2001 Population 100-2,499 and 2,500-4,999 Which Lost Population 161 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , by Weak and No MIZ Status for All Communities with 2001 Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 162 iii

5 Page Number Table B-1 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Agricultural Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 163 Table B-2 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Fishing Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 164 Table B-3 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Forestry Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 165 Table B-4 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Mining Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 166 Table B-5 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Tourism Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 167 Table B-6 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Manufacturing Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 168 Table B-7 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Dynamic Services Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 169 Table B-8 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Non-Market Services Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 170 Table B-9 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Retirement Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 171 Table B-10 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Dual Specialization Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 172 Table B-11 Percent Change in Socio-Economic Characteristics, , Non-Specialized Communities (1991 Classification) with Population 100-4,999 Which Lost Population 173 iv

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Many rural and small town places and larger rural regions within Canada are experiencing a long period of economic and social restructuring initiated by plant restructuring, mechanization of industries, changes to transportation and communication infrastructure, as well as the regionalization of services. This is evidenced by population loss, an out-migration of youth, an aging population, a decline in primary sector resource activity, an increase in tourism activity, and a shift to retail, dynamic services and non-market services activities. The impacts of continued population loss and shifting economic realities have been many. They include, but are not limited to: fewer opportunities for economic development, new business development, and job creation; depression of the resale housing market; rising vacancy rates in rental properties; diminished access to and provision of social services (health care, education, etc.,) as population levels fall below demand thresholds; and diminished municipal capacity to provide critical and necessary municipal infrastructure due to an eroding tax base. From a housing perspective, there are some very important linkages. Housing developers and builders make decisions about new housing investments based on their projected future of the community and its region. Private sector employers looking to relocate to or expand within a small community may face difficulties if there is insufficient housing choice or a lack of affordability. Providers of mortgage insurance make their decisions in part based on an assessment of whether or not there is an ability to recover losses on a property in default of its mortgage. In the context of a long run period of population and economic decline, many housing stakeholders face tough decisions. The focus of this report is on relatively isolated rural and small town places which are more likely to experience population and economic decline, and which have fewer resources and less capacity to respond to economic shocks. There are significant variations among these communities across rural and small town Canada, with respect to their economic base, proximity to urban centres, and socio-economic characteristics. This means that for those interested in understanding economic development activity and change over time, there is a need to define relatively isolated rural and small town places, and to understand the context within which these communities function and change over time. This is important from a public policy and program perspective because decisions about changes to policies and programs can have important consequences for these places collectively. Decisions made using broad assumptions about the future of such places collectively can have damaging outcomes if they are not grounded in, or supported by, a well-developed understanding of the significant variation that exists from one place to the next in terms of their economic development activity and potential alternative futures. This report developed a framework that enables analysts to assess the stage of economic development of relatively isolated rural and small town places. This report developed an understanding of the conditions under which communities move through a period of economic decline and into one or more Alternative Futures. v

7 Project Objectives The purpose of this project was to provide an understanding of how economic development activity within relatively isolated rural and small town places in Canada changes over time. More specifically, the four objectives identified for this project included: 1. Develop a definition of relatively isolated rural and small town places for the purpose of quantifying and classifying such places for further analysis to assess economic development changes over time. 2. Develop an appropriate scheme for classifying relatively isolated rural and small town places based on their economic base(s) for the purpose of understanding how different types of these communities change over time. 3. Develop a framework for understanding how relatively isolated rural and small town places change over time, the variations that might be exist among different types of such communities, and the types of socio-economic indicators which help to explain changes over time within the framework. 4. Illustrate the usefulness of the framework by using case studies which show how different communities change over time and how socio-economic indicators may provide some insights into these changes. Methodology The project was completed in four phases. In each, a combination of a literature review and an analysis of Census data, primarily from 1986 to 2001, was used to characterize communities, as well as to develop and apply the framework. Defining Relatively Isolated Rural and Small Town Places To define the geographic parameters of the study, a focus was placed on analytical reports and working papers prepared by Statistics Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture s Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS). Scholarly work defining small communities, or defining rural and small town places was also reviewed, with a particular emphasis on those which employed or 'tested' the models, approaches, and ideas developed by the two statistical agencies. Census Subdivisions (CSDs) from the 1996 Census, which had been previously coded by their population and 'zone of metropolitan influence' (MIZ) (by Rambeau and Todd), were used to sort the CSDs into clusters based on the parameters identified in the literature review. A population threshold of more than 50 but less than 5,000 population, and a Weak MIZ or No MIZ status, were used as the parameters for defining Census Subdivisions (including both incorporated and unincorporated places, but excluding First Nations reserves) which were relatively isolated rural and small town places. vi

8 First Nation reserves and other federal reserve lands were excluded from the analysis due to their unique property tenure and housing market characteristics that limit comparisons to other places. Places which have fewer than 50 residents were excluded because they are too small to have a functional housing market. The upper population threshold of 5,000 was chosen because Statistics Canada uses 5,000 as a low end cut off for reporting data on urban places. Clustering by Economic Activity A range of clustering approaches were examined to provide a foundation for developing economic indicators by which to cluster rural and small town places by economic activity. The 1980 Standard Industry Classification (SIC) codes were applied to the 2001 Census data, and a threshold of 25% of the labour force employed in a sector was used as the cutoff to categorize each CSD by economic activity. This was supplemented with a threshold of 25% of the population 65 years of age or more for the purpose of determining if a community was a retirement community. Below this 25% threshold, more than half of the communities have more than one dominant sector (dual specialization). Beyond this 25% threshold, many communities have no specialization. Therefore, the 25% threshold provides balance between the presence of dual specialization and non-specialization. Using a 25% threshold, the economic sectors identified were: agricultural communities, fishing communities, forestry communities, mining communities, tourism communities, manufacturing communities, dynamic services communities, non-market services communities, dual specialization communities (two sectors with at least 25% of the labour force employed in each sector), and non-specialized communities (no sector with at least 25% of the labour force employed). Framework for Stages of Economic Development Previous studies were examined to propose a framework suitable to identifying the stage of a community s economic development activity. The recommended framework includes the following stages: Startup, Growth, Plateau, Decline, and Alternative Futures. Within this framework, socio-economic characteristics (e.g. population, population change, age structure, labour force characteristics, incomes, and migration) were described that could be used as a starting point for understanding the directionality of a given place. An analysis of socioeconomic data from Statistics Canada between 1991 and 2001 was completed to examine those changes for the communities within the definition of relatively isolated rural and small town places. vii

9 Case Studies A case study methodology was used to illustrate how the framework could be applied in practice. A purposeful sampling methodology was used to identify case studies for each of the eleven different types of sectors identified. Case studies were also selected based on the availability of a range of additional sources of information, such as newspaper articles, reports, books, journal articles, and other types of statistical information. The case studies explored the characteristics of communities as they moved through a period of Decline into one or more Alternative Futures. Key Findings The Universe of Relatively Isolated Rural and Small Town Places There are 1,432 CSDs (or communities, or places) which meet the criteria of 50 to less than 5,000 population, excluding First Nation reserve CSDs, and within the Weak MIZ and No MIZ designations. Slightly more than half of the communities are within the Weak MIZ designation. Most of the larger communities are within the Weak MIZ designation. On the other hand, most No MIZ communities have less than 2,500 people. Distribution of Communities by MIZ Designation and Population Group, 50-4,999 Population, Incorporated and Unincorporated Communities, MIZ Code Total Population Group No MIZ Weak MIZ 2,500-4,999 Count % within population group 3.7% 96.3% 100.0% % within MIZ code 0.8% 15.9% 9.4% 50-2,499 Count % within population group 47.3% 52.7% 100.0% % within MIZ code 99.2% 84.1% 90.6% Total Count % within population group 43.2% 56.8% 100.0% % within MIZ code 100.0% 10.7% 100.0% Source: Derived from Table 35 in Rambeau, S. and K. Todd Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ) with Census Data. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Classification into Economic Sectors Many previous studies have used labour force by industry type to cluster places into economic sectors. However, they are not consistent in identifying a threshold defining what percent of the labour force employed in a given sector should be used as a cutoff for determining 'concentration'. Clemenson (1992) used 30% as a cutoff for rural and small town places in Canada. Elo and Beale (1985) used 20% for rural communities in the United States, as did Wilson (2004) in looking at mining communities in the United States. viii

10 Within our parameters, at the 20% threshold, many communities have at least 20% in one sector and employment in other sectors is spread thinly below the 20% mark. More than half the communities have at least 2 or more 'dominant' sectors (763 in dual specialization). At the 25% threshold, much of this 'dual specialization' begins to disappear, but one begins to see an increase (to 179) in the number of non-specialized communities (meaning that they have no sectors with at least a 25% concentration). At 30%, there are so many communities (almost one-third) which have no specialization under this criteria. To balance these, we use a 25% threshold for classification purposes. Economic type of community by % of labour force employed in specific sectors (and % age 65+), All Communities with 50-4,999 Population, 2001 Economic Type Percent of Labour Force Employed in Sector 20% 25% 30% Agricultural Fishing Forestry Mining Tourism Manufacturing Dynamic Services Non-market Services Retirement Dual Specialization Non-Specialized Total Source: Statistics Canada The distribution of communities at this 25% threshold, by both MIZ and population clusters, shows relatively few variations in the distributions within each of these two clusters. However, there are relatively more agricultural and non-market services communities within the Weak MIZ group and relatively more dual specialization communities within the No MIZ group. There are relatively more agricultural and dual specialization communities within the population group 50-2,499, and relatively more non-market and non-specialized communities in the larger population group. ix

11 Distribution of Economic Type of Community by (25% or More of the Labour Force Employed in Specific Sectors and 25% Age 65+), Communities with Weak and No MIZ Status, and Communities with 50-2,499 and 2,500-4,999 Population Economic Type Total Weak MIZ No MIZ # % # % # % # % # % Agricultural Fishing Forestry Mining Tourism Manufacturing Dynamic Services Non-market Services Retirement Dual Specialization Non-Specialized Total Source: Statistics Canada Framework for Exploring Stages of Economic Development Activity Drawing from a range of ideas in the literature, the following stages of economic activity were applied to understanding of the economic trajectory of small places: Startup: Characteristics of town start-up may include a range of activities. The municipal charter establishing the settlement would have been recently granted. There would be evidence of new construction of buildings and municipal infrastructure (water supply and sewerage, roads and streets, municipal administration and service buildings, houses and other residential buildings). Basic and essential services would also be established in the early part of the Startup period, as would a large population influx. The community may experience changes in its population with the emergence, and perhaps subsequent out-migration, of construction crews, as well as changes in local economic employment opportunities. Growth: Characteristics of town growth may include new developments in the community, such as retail stores in the downtown core, an expansion of essential services, or construction of an industrial park. Expansion of municipal boundaries may be another indicator of growth. Sustained population and/or household growth over a long period of time, and a high pace of building starts for all types of structures are other features that would also be indicators of growth. Plateau: There are fewer physical signs of change in a town during the plateau stage. New economic activity, as well as new building construction, is limited. There is also little net population growth or decline. Services peak in terms of the volume of activity and staffing, and there is a progressive aging/maturing of the population. Decline: The decline stage is characterized by a decline in the resource industry or economic activity which fueled the initial growth and sustained the Plateau period. This might include a x

12 depletion of the resource, the closure or withdrawal of public services or institutions, or the closure of the both major employers and small retail or supply businesses. Net population decline from out-migration is a key characteristic. Alternative Futures: At any point within the framework, but often following a period of decline, conditions may change to the point where a very different community economy develops. Depending upon local history and context, such transition may occur through a diverse range of individual pathways. These include: Transform to some other economic activity and grow again. The community responds to change by aggressively transforming its economy into other activities which place it in a growth stage again. Transform to some other economic activity and plateau at a similar or lower level than before. The community transforms its economy into other activities, or allows the community to adopt a new primary economic activity by default, either of which provides a measure of stability, but one which is at a lower economic and population level than before the change. Transform to some other economic activity and decline more. The community attempts to transform its economy into something else, but the efforts do not halt a further period of decline. Remain in the same primary activity, but function at a lower plateau than before. A period of decline may occur over a finite period of time, after which there is a leveling off of economic and population change and the community settles in to a period of stability which is at a lower level compared to previously. Decommission or closure. The community, or an outside agency, makes the decision to close the community (often after a long and sustained decline). In some cases, the decision is made quickly where nearly the entire workforce may be employed when a major employer closes. Population change (loss) is the primary indicator of a community in decline. Most of the rural and small town places in this study are declining. There are very few instances where new communities are being established. This trend is evident regardless of the size of place examined, the degree of metropolitan influence, or the economic sector of a place. For example, only about 27% of the No MIZ communities grew in population, and only about 31% of the Weak MIZ communities grew between 1991 and xi

13 Summary of Rural and Small Town Places in Decline, Population Changes for all Communities with 1991 Population of 50-4,999, Category Total % Total % n= Lost Gained All communities % % 1342 All communities, 2001 population of 100-2, % % 1139 All communities, 2001 population of 2,500-4, % % 113 Communities with Weak MIZ Communities with No MIZ Agricultural communities % % 278 Fishing communities % 1 4.5% 22 Forestry communities % % 13 Mining communities % % 26 Tourism communities % % 12 Manufacturing communities % % 112 Dynamic communities % % 50 Non-market communities % % 265 Retirement communities % % 42 Dual specialization communities % % 298 Non-specialized communities % % 221 Source: Statistics Canada 2001, The framework pointed to a need for understanding of the indicators of movement into and through a period of Decline, and in understanding the various local and contextual conditions which might shape the Alternative Future of a community after a period of Decline. For this reason, analysis of socio-economic characteristics to explain the stages of economic development through the Decline period was completed, with the following question in mind: How can changes in various social and economic characteristics of communities be used to understand if a community is in a period of Decline, and what its Alternative Future might be? The analysis found that there is significant variation in the values of various socio-economic characteristics from one community to the next, and from one cluster of similar types of communities (based on economic sector classification) to another. The significant diversity from one place to the next does not permit the identification of a threshold for each characteristic to show when a community is in Decline. But, findings did reveal some consistent directions of change for each characteristic, through the period, in terms of their increase or decrease in value. The framework identified that context is important to understanding changes in the local economy. Key questions that should be asked about a given community to understand much more about the nature of the Decline, and which type(s) of Alternative Future(s) might be possible, including: What is the nature of the regional economy surrounding this community? Is it healthy or unstable? xii

14 What is the potential for commuting to work in other communities in the region, while maintaining residence in this community? What is the strength / quality of local leadership to help move the community forward or to address the problems it faces? What is the nature of ownership of industry and business in the community? Is it local or from outside? Is it diversified or concentrated? How exposed is the local economy to global economic forces (e.g., what are the commodity prices for the local resource, and how is it change?) What federal and provincial policies affect this community? Are they likely to change? What about larger economic policies, such as GATT, NAFTA, and others? Are there a range of core services (health, education, justice, etc.) present in the community, or within 30 minutes drive of this community? What are the strengths, if any, of development regional agencies who may play a role in the transformation of this community? For communities which are classified as either dual specialization or non-specialized, how has the distribution of the labour force across all sectors changed in recent years, and where is the distribution headed? Is the community moving towards greater concentration or more diversity in its economy, and if so, to which or from which economic sector(s)? Answers to these questions provide a much better position to make sound judgments and decisions about the nature and extent of the period of economic Decline in the community, where the community might be headed in terms of an Alternative Future, and how best to support its future development. Case Study Findings The eleven case studies showed reasonable consistency in terms of how changes to specific socio-economic characteristics of declining communities behave like those identified in the framework. There were, however, some variables in each case study which moved in the opposite direction, or showed no change, relative to expectations. As such, there are some contextual issues that are not captured within the range of comparable statistics which are collected and published for Canadian communities. Communities move through many changes over time, and they often have different economic sector classifications over those time periods. Within this context, each community is unique even though it may share some or many features in common with others. Exposure to the global economy is an important factor influencing rural change. The regional economy also helps to shape the local economy of small places. There are also differences between seemingly similar communities. Within a general framework, there is still a need to recognize the importance of context and the uniqueness of place. xiii

15 Limitations The methodology employed has some limitations. Using socio-economic data for any characteristics may occur when a town experiences a change in its stage of development during or shortly after a census. In the early stages of development, a community may be too small to reveal changes in socio-economic characteristics. There may also be long periods over which a community may be within a single stage. On the other hand, other places may go through a number of stages in the short time between two census periods. Furthermore, time lags mean that trigger events may not show their implications for a period of time. For example, Wilson (2004) notes that the impacts of boom and bust cycles in mining towns will differ by mineral and often lag behind many years. One possibility for filling census time gaps could be the use of small area tax filer data (available on an annual basis, two years after the current year). The characteristics associated with varying economic activities may also change over time (Stedman et al. 2004). For example, women have not traditionally found employment in resource towns, particularly in resource industries, but this has been changing (Everitt and Gill 1993; Krahn and Gartrell 1981). Characteristics associated with agricultural communities may also vary according to farm size, structure, agricultural commodity, and region (Stedman et al. 2004). Within manufacturing communities, characteristics may differ according to the product (i.e. veneer, construction wood, pulp and paper, or wood chips). Even in fishing communities, characteristics may be influenced by market niches (Peluso et al. 1994). The framework for clustering small communities in rural Canada has some limitations. Given the dynamics of economic change over time, individual CSDs may move in and out of categories over time. For example, a community with 25% of its labour force employed in mining in 1986, for example, may have less than that in 2001, and thus be classified as a different type of community. The framework provides a tool for assigning a given community to a given type of economic activity at any one point in time. This may provide a challenge for examining changes in a community over time. For example, a community may be classified as mining in 1996, but may become a retirement community in However, mining characteristics are used to demonstrate or track socio-economic characteristics over the decline period even though the economic sector, and corresponding socio-economic characteristics, may have changed. This produces a complex landscape that is not easily understood by Statistics Canada data or without further research in the community. Like other classification systems, such as Statistics Canada Low Income Cut Off, the 25% threshold is an issue which can be revisited in other research. Its purpose, however, is not to set an absolute measure of economic orientation, but rather to give a baseline against which change within economic orientation can be evaluated. The selection of the 25% level as the threshold for assigning a community to a particular type of economic activity might need to be reviewed and modified at some future time. Flexibility in the approach is required. For example, as our economy changes over time, there might be a need to adopt different thresholds other than 25%. As employment levels decline in the primary sector, it might be necessary to think about lowering the threshold for a community to be assigned to a particular resource sector. In a similar xiv

16 way, there might be a need to adopt a broader or narrower range of economic cluster categories, to reflect a new reality of economic activity in small places. For example, as economies in small communities evolve over time, there might be a need to identify a range of specific dual economy communities, such as retirement and forestry, or non-market services and agriculture. The definition of specific for either or both would need to debated and tested. The characteristics of a particular economic cluster may change over time. As communities age, mature, and move through different economic development processes and cycles, their social and economic characteristics may change. Although the directionality of change for each socio-economic variable examined offers potential insights into changes in each economic cluster of communities, its usefulness is limited in the cases of 'dual-specialization' and 'non-specialization' communities. While there may be some general patterns within each of the clusters, there is significant variation in the labour force composition from one individual community to the next within each of these clusters. For example, dual-specialization communities could include up to 55 different combinations of dual specialties (e.g. agricultural and retirement; agricultural and manufacturing; manufacturing and tourism; etc.). In a similar way, there will be significant variations within the non-specialized cluster, where any individual community may have a single labour force component that is very close to the 25% threshold we use, while another may have widespread distribution of its labour force across a number of sectors. Taken together, the relative influences of the various economic sectors present in a community will have different outcomes in terms of directionality of the various socio-economic characteristics over time. Therefore, it is not possible to 'map' the directionality of the change in variables over time from the general pattern of these clusters as a whole onto individual communities. Greater reliance on local knowledge is required to understand the change dynamics in these dual-specialization and non-specialization communities. Conclusions Across Canada, there are many different types of rural and small town places, and the ways in which service restructuring and economic development is occurring in communities varies significantly. Despite this diversity, decisions about changes to housing policies and programs are based upon broad assumptions about the future of such places collectively. This research on relatively isolated rural and small town places in Canada builds upon previous research and makes an important new contribution to rural development research because it provides: A categorization / differentiation of relatively isolated rural and small town places from all other such places by using a population threshold of 50 to less than 5,000 and by using Weak and No MIZ status. This allows for a closer examination of those places most vulnerable to population decline and economic restructuring. A classification of communities by economic type based on labour force activity in each sector. Although this is an imperfect approach, and has its limitations because it xv

17 may not fully capture other employment which is directly or indirectly related, this approach uses widely available Census data which can be used to make assessments of the types of important local economic activities and how they may have changed over time. Recognition that communities may have different types of economic drivers over time, and that this is influenced by a complex process of labour force expansion and contraction which may contribute to increasing or decreasing specialization in rural and small town communities. A framework for understanding how different types of communities change over time, with a particular emphasis on what is happening in communities as they move through stages in a community development model. Case studies were then used to explore examples of rural and small town places as they move through a period of population decline and explore alternative economic and community development futures. A way to incorporate and acknowledge the importance of local, regional, and global contexts which significantly shape and influence the economic trajectory of our relatively isolated rural and small town places. For public policy and program decision-makers, this research provides important new information about the evolution and economic trajectory of relatively isolated rural and small town places. Decisions made about policies and programs which may affect the future viability of these places must be taken with care, caution, and appropriate information. This research shows that not all of these places are alike, and that there are also large differences among those which have the same economic orientation. The framework points to the importance of understanding context in order to fully understand how an individual community is moving through a period of Decline and how it might proceed with an alternative future. In other words, place matters. xvi

18 1.0 INTRODUCTION Many rural and small town places and larger rural regions within Canada are experiencing a long period of significant economic and social restructuring. This is evidenced by population loss, an out-migration of youth, an aging population, a decline in primary sector resource activity, an increase in tourism activity, and a shift to retail, dynamic services and non-market services activities. The impacts of continued population loss and shifting economic realities have been many. They include, but are not limited to: fewer opportunities for economic development, new business development, and job creation; depression of the resale housing market; rising vacancy rates in rental properties; diminished access to and provision of social services (health care, education, etc.,) as population levels fall below demand thresholds; and diminished municipal capacity to provide critical and necessary municipal infrastructure due to an eroding tax base. The picture appears somewhat bleak. However, there are many different types of rural communities and small towns in Canada, and the ways in which these changes play out in individual communities varies significantly. The variation among different community types is influenced or conditioned by many factors, including, but not limited to: $ the size of the population; $ the presence or absence of a local government (with the ability and mandate to govern locally, manage the assets, and take action on opportunities or threats); $ the relative distance from and relationship with larger urban centres (which provide opportunities for employment, shopping, services, and much more); $ the type(s) of economic activity within the local community and the surrounding region; and $ the role of the community within a larger settlement pattern (communities with the same population size may play different roles as service centres, for example, depending on their relationship with other communities in their larger region). It is not surprising, therefore, that economic development activity in rural Canada varies significantly from one community to the next given the broad range of variations noted above. For example, communities located near large urban centres typically have growing populations while those in more isolated places have declining population. Those with larger populations have more diversity in their economy compared to those with smaller populations. But these are gross oversimplifications of the complexity and diversity that one would find throughout rural Canada. The focus of this report is on communities which are more likely to experience population and economic decline, and which have fewer resources and less capacity to respond to economic shocks. These can generally be described as relatively isolated rural and small town places. The variations within rural Canada, as noted above, mean that for those interested in understanding economic development activity and change over time in rural Canada, there is a need to identify the parameters that define relatively isolated rural and small town places, and to understand the 1

19 context within which these communities function and change over time. This is important from a public policy and program perspective because decisions about changes to policies and programs which affect these places collectively, or decisions made using broad assumptions about the future of such places collectively, can have damaging outcomes if they are not grounded in or supported by a well-developed understanding of the significant variation that exists from one place to the next in terms of their economic development activity and potential future alternatives. Thus, this report is intended to develop a framework that will enable analysts to assess the stage of economic development of relatively isolated rural and small town places, and to understand the conditions under which communities move through a period of economic decline and into one or more Alternative Futures. From a housing perspective, there are some very important and key linkages. Housing developers and builders make decisions about new housing investments based on their projected future of the community and its region. Private sector employers looking to relocate to or expand within a small community may face difficulties if there is insufficient housing choice or a lack of affordability. Providers of mortgage insurance make their decisions in part based on an assessment of whether or not there is an ability to recover losses on a property in default of its mortgage. The purpose of this report is to provide an understanding of how economic development activity within relatively isolated rural and small town places in Canada changes over time. More specifically, the objectives include: Develop a definition of relatively isolated rural and small town places for the purpose of quantifying and classifying such places for further analysis to assess economic development changes over time. Develop an appropriate scheme for classifying relatively isolated rural and small town places for the purpose of understanding the range of different types of such places based on their economic base(s), and for the purpose of understanding how different types of these communities change over time. Develop a framework for understanding how relatively isolated rural and small town places change over time, the variations that might be exist among different types of such communities, and the types of socio-economic indicators which help to explain changes over time within the framework. Illustrate the usefulness of the framework by using case studies which show how different communities change over time and how socio-economic indicators may provide some insights into these changes. The report begins with a detailed discussion of the methodology employed to assess the literature on rural development, and to develop a longitudinal approach to using Census data (from 1986 to 2001) for analytical purposes. The report then discusses an appropriate definition of relatively 2

20 isolated rural and small town places and quantifies their number, type, and geographic distribution. The next section examines a variety of approaches which might be used to classify or cluster such places, and uses concentration of the labour force by industry type to cluster these places into eleven different economic activities. This is followed by the development of a framework for understanding and assessing how economic development activity in these different types of relatively isolated rural and small town places changes over time, and the implications for public policies and programs. A series of brief case studies are presented to illustrate how the framework might be employed. The report concludes with a short discussion of the usefulness of the framework, the importance of this research, and some potential further research questions which might be pursued. 3

21 2.0 METHODOLOGY Four steps were undertaken to develop a framework approach for understanding community development change in rural and small town Canada. The first step included defining parameters for identifying the universe of relatively isolated rural and small town places which may experience economic development challenges. This also entailed providing background information on the different types of small places across Canada. Differences provide a foundation for evaluating the housing impacts on rural and small town places, and for facilitating an appropriate decision making process about future housing investments in such communities. The second step identified a clustering approach to categorize rural and small town places into economic sectors. The third step involved developing a framework to identify the community s stage of economic development activity. Finally, a case study methodology was applied to illustrate how the framework could be applied in practice. A range of sources were used to develop and apply this framework approach including literature from previous studies, newspaper archives, documents by both private and public service providers, and government sources. Furthermore, Statistics Canada data, primarily from 1986 to 2001, was used to characterize communities, as well as to develop and apply the framework. This section will describe the methodology for each of these steps, including a discussion of the limitations of the methodology. Rural and Small Town Places To define the parameters for rural and small town places, a focus was placed on searching for analytical reports and working papers prepared by national statistical agencies in both Canada (Statistics Canada) and the United States (USDA-ERS). Both agencies have worked extensively over the past 15 years to develop more appropriate ways to differentiate the broad range of rural and small town places within each of their national contexts. In addition, the work of the Organization for Economic and Cooperation and Development (OECD) to develop a set of indicators or measures of rural that would be applicable internationally was consulted. To supplement these, a search was also conducted for scholarly work on the issue of defining small communities or defining rural and small town places, with a particular emphasis on examining work which employed or tested the models, approaches, and ideas developed by the two statistical agencies. For the purpose of developing the inventory of small communities based on recommendations from the literature review, the electronic version (spreadsheet) of the 1996 Census developed by Rambeau and Todd, which coded all Census Subdivisions (CSDs) by their population and zone of metropolitan influence (MIZ), was used to sort the CSDs into clusters based on the parameters identified in the literature review. 4

22 Limits to Sample It is important to note that the sampling frame for this study is the 2001 Census; however, we have also included analysis of Census data from 1986, 1991, and 1996 for the purpose of examining change over time. To maintain our focus upon small places, we used an upper threshold of 5,000 people as the cut off for inclusion on the sample and comparison against the community development framework. At the other end of the population scale, we used a low threshold of 50 people as the cut off for inclusion in the sample and comparison against the economic development framework. To maintain the focus on rural and small town places that are not under influence from large urban centres, we used Statistics Canada s MIZ (metropolitan area influenced zone) measure to include only those CSDs noted as having Weak or No MIZ. Clustering by Economic Activity To categorize rural and small town places by economic activity, previous studies were examined to explore characteristics of small towns associated with a particular economic sector. From this, a range of clustering approaches were examined to provide a foundation for developing economic indicators by which to cluster rural and small town places by economic activity. Based on previous studies, and using the 1980 Census SIC codes, a threshold of 25% of the labour force employed in a sector was used as the cutoff to categorize each CSD by economic activity. This was supplemented with a threshold of 25% of the population 65 years of age or more for the purpose of determining if a community was a retirement community. The economic sectors identified are: agricultural communities, fishing communities, forestry communities, mining communities, tourism communities, manufacturing communities, dynamic services communities 1, non-market services communities 2, dual specialization communities, and non-specialized communities. If an individual CSD had a labour force concentration of 25% in any one sector (or 25% or more of the population was 65 years of age and over), it was classified or clustered into that sector. To 1 Includes transportation and storage industries, communication and other utility industries, wholesale trade industries, finance and insurance industries, real estate operator and insurance agent industries, and business service industries (Alasia 2004). 2 (Includes government service industries, educational service industries, and health and social service industries (Alasia 2004). 5