Migration Characteristics and Trends GREY COUNTY

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1 Migration Characteristics and Trends September 2016 Four County Labour Market Planning Board Bruce Grey Huron Perth

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3 The material contained in this report has been commissioned by the Four County Labour Market Planning Board (FCLMPB) and is drawn from a variety of sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. In providing this material, FCLMPB does not assume any responsibility or liability. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Ontario. This report is funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Government of Ontario. Report written by Paul Knafelc Community Benchmarks Inc. September 2016 Contact Us 111 Jackson St., S, Suite 1, Box 1078, Walkerton, ON N0G 2V0 Toll free: Phone: executivedirector@planningboard.ca 1

4 BACKGROUND Community Benchmarks was originally approached in 2012 for research that would heighten the Four County Labour Market Planning Board s understanding of the migration characteristics and trends of each of the four counties (Bruce, Grey, Huron and Perth) within the Four County LMPB area. A report covering the 2006 to 2011 time period was delivered, as was an updated report profiling 2011 and 2012 data. This most recent update examines the current data available, covering the 2009 to 2014 time period. 2

5 MIGRATION CHARACTERISTICS Between 2009 and 2014, Grey County attracted 20,161 persons through in-migration and lost 18,652 to out-migration, with net-migration resulting in a modest increase of 1,509 persons. Of note, Grey has experienced five consecutive years of net migration gains; however, the net gain between 2013 and 2014 is the smallest at 85 people. Details are presented in Table 1. Migration Characteristics: Grey County TABLE 1 Net-Migration: ,794 Out 4,371 In ,688 Out 3,853 In ,079 Out 4,315 In ,336 Out 3,782 In ,755 Out 3,840 In ,161 In +1,509 18,652 Out 3

6 MIGRATION BY AGE COHORT In addition to looking at the total number of people who moved into or out of Grey County, Table 2 shows migration by age cohort over the 2009 to 2014 period. The data reveals that the 25 to 44 age cohort accounts for the majority of migrants moving into and out of Grey, at 5,743 and 5,782 persons respectively. The 45 to 64 age cohort accounted for the greatest net gain of persons, at 1,511, while the 18 to 24 cohort accounted for the greatest net loss of people. Details are presented in Table 2. Migration by Age Cohort: Grey County TABLE 2 Net-Migration: 4,334 In 0-17 Years ,705 Out Years 3,173 Out 2,451 In Years 5,782 Out 5,743 In -39 5,151 In Years +1,511 3,640 Out 2,482 In 65+ Years ,352 Out Total (all age groups) 18,652 Out 20,161 In Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler 4

7 TYPES OF MIGRATION Further knowledge of Grey County s migration patterns is provided by examining the three different types of migration. Intra-provincial migration refers to migration within Ontario; inter-provincial migration refers to migration between Ontario and other provinces; and international migration refers to migrants leaving and entering the country. Intra-provincial migration accounted for the greatest number of movers both in and out of Grey. Grey County also realized the greatest net gain of people from intra-provincial migration at 2,088 people over the 2009 to 2014 time period. Grey also experienced a small net gain of people (71) due to international migration, but experienced a net loss of people due to inter-provincial migration. In-Migration: 20,161 Out-Migration: 18,652 International: 408 Inter-Provincal: 1,214 Intra-Provincal: 18,539 International: 337 Inter-Provincal: 1,864 Intra-Provincal: 16,451 Net-Migration: +1,509 Intra-Provincial: +2,088 Inter-Provincial: -650 International: +71 Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler 5

8 MIGRATION FLOWS BY ORIGIN AND DESTINATION Additional insight into Grey County s migration patterns is gained by assessing where migrants have moved from and where they have moved to. An understanding of the communities and the distances people move from and to provides a spatial perspective of Grey s migration characteristics. Since labour markets typically extend beyond a particular county, people who move from Grey to neighbouring regions may not affect the skills available to the local labour market. However, migration to and from regions further afield may contribute to the loss or gain of labour market skill sets. Grey received in-migrants from many regions stretching across Ontario: the greatest number of people moved from Bruce County. The main regions outside of Grey s local labour market from which people were attracted include: Wellington (1,776), Toronto (1,566), Waterloo (1,384), Peel (1,308) and Dufferin (1,115). Details are presented in Table 4. 6

9 In-Migration by Place of Origin Grey County 2009 to 2014 TABLE 4 Moved From Number Bruce 3,797 Simcoe 2,378 Wellington 1,776 Toronto 1,566 Waterloo 1,384 Peel 1,308 Dufferin 1,115 Halton 666 York 641 Middlesex 450 Hamilton 323 Perth 306 Durham 287 Huron 265 Niagara 235 Ottawa 155 Renfrew 148 Essex 135 Oxford 131 Division No. 6, AB 119 Greater Vancouver 113 Peterborough 108 Brant 100 Sub-total (regions with 100 or more movers) 17,506 All other regions 2,655 Total 20,161 Source: Statstics Canada, Taxflier 7

10 With respect to out-migration, Grey County lost the most people to neighbouring Bruce and Simcoe County. The loss of people to Wellington, Toronto and Waterloo accounted for the greatest loss of people outside the Grey local labour market (Table 5). 8 Out-Migration by Destination Grey County 2009 to 2014 TABLE 5 Moved To Number Bruce 3,319 Simcoe 2,641 Wellington 1,484 Toronto 1,226 Waterloo 1,116 Dufferin 955 Middlesex 628 Peel 614 Halton 414 York 294 Hamilton 290 Niagara 285 Durham 262 Huron 262 Ottawa 256 Perth 247 Division No. 6, AB 176 Essex 172 Division No. 11, AB 165 Renfrew 162 Oxford 150 Elgin 137 Greater Vancouver 134 Muskoka 108 Nipissing 107 Lambton 104 Algoma 103 Brant 101 Sub-total (regions with 100 or more movers) 15,912 All other regions 2,740 Total 18,652 Source: Statistics Canada, Taxflier

11 While certain communities account for greater numbers of in and out-migrants to Grey, net numbers reveal where the greatest gains or losses where realized. For example, the greatest net gain of persons into Grey County moved from Peel (694), followed by Bruce (478), York (347), and Toronto (340). Grey experienced its greatest net loss of people to Simcoe County (263), Middlesex (178) and Ottawa (101) respectively. Details are presented in Table 6. Net-Migration Top Ten Grey County 2009 to 2014 TABLE 6 Net-Gain Peel +694 Bruce +478 York +347 Toronto +340 Wellington +292 Waterloo +268 Halton +252 Dufferin +160 Foreign +71 Perth +59 Net-Migration Bottom Ten Grey County 2009 to 2014 TABLE 6 Net-Loss Simcoe -263 Middlesex -178 Ottawa -101 Division No. 11, AB -73 Nipissing -63 Division No. 6, AB -57 Muskoka -55 Niagara -50 Elgin -41 Essex -37 Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler

12 Four County Labour Market Planning Board 111 Jackson Street South, Suite 1 Walkerton, ON N0G 1L executivedirector@planningboard.ca