Colombian Longitudinal Survey ELCA International Seminar on Design, Collection and Analysis of Longitudinal Data

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1 Colombian Longitudinal Survey ELCA International Seminar on Design, Collection and Analysis of Longitudinal Data Adriana Camacho Universidad de los Andes, Department of Economics Noviembre 2015

2 Similar Poverty, higer inequality Poverty Colombia LAC Inequality LAC Colombia

3 Some additional peculiarities: The longest running armed conflict in the world. (High levels of crime and violence). Large vulnerabilities due to climate change. High informality in the Labor markets >50% Regional inequalities and great regional differences in development.

4 ELCA

5 What are the main objectives of ELCA? Understand and study the economic and social changes that people and households experience.(rural and urban households) Understand factors that influence households vulnerability, risk management and strategies for coping with socioeconomic o violence shocks

6 ELCA Sample Sample: 10,800 households (Representative at the National and Regional level) urban, rural households Urban area: 5 Regions Bogotá,Central, Oriental, Atlantic, Pacífica Urban sample: representative of low and middle income status (strata 1-4 out of 6) Rural area: 4 Regions Middle Atlantic, Cundi-Boyacense, Coffee region, Central-East Targeted children: 8,695 children under 10 years old: 4,282 urban children and 4,413 rural children.

7 Follow up (2013, 2016) Target respondents : Head of household Partner Head of Household s sons, step sons, grand children and grand grand children under 10 years old in 2010 Migrants are surveyed in the follow up if they moved to municipalities close to original municipalities Attrition in % of the sample

8 Municipalities in 2010 and 2013 Sample in 2010: 80 municipalities Sample in 2013: 171 municipalities

9 2010 Urban- Rural: Samples and questionnaires 171 Missing households Urban area households Rural households 163 missing households households Urban sample Urban Questionnaire 276 hogares Rural sample Urban questionnaire 46 hogares Urban sample Rural questionnaire 4,305 Hogares Rural sample Rural questionnaire TOTAL: households Urban Questionnaire TOTAL: households Rural questionnaire

10 The panel data allows us to study people s experiences and changes through time ,000 households 94% of sample was surveyed for the first followup 2019 Early Chilhood Youth Adolescence Young Adult Cognit. And SE tests Schooling, risky behaviors, teenage pregnancy Labor market-nini

11 ELCA: innovations Child development (cognitive, socio emotional tests and antropometrics) Strategies of households to mitigate impact of shocks: Armed conflict Natural disasters Land tenure and informality of property rights: Agricultural production Conflict dynamics Community questionnaire: institutional services, infrastructure, public services, shocks and conflict.

12 Other information collected Access to financial and insurance markets Labor markets: employment history, labor income and time use Economic conditions: consumption and income Housing conditions Agricultural production Health: status, perception and insurance Education Transferences: informal and government Access to social programs Participation in organizations and social networks Political participation and preferences Household s geographic location: GPS

13 Households, poverty, shocks and conflict

14 Households change overtime Urban area Households that receive and expel members 10.2 Households thtat transform: 56,9% Households that expel members 18.4 Divided Households 6.3 Fuente: ELCA 2010, 2013 households that receive members 18.7 New households that receive follow up persons 3.3 Households that remain unchanged 43.1 Households thtat transform: 62% Rural area (4micro-regions) Divided Households 5.7 Households that receive and expel members 12.7 Households that expel members 21.3 households that receive members 18.8 New households that receive follow up persons 3.6 Households that remain unchanged 38

15 Rural and Urban Migration Urban 0,5% Rural Permanecen zona urbana (99,5%) Different town,same department 17% Change of department 2% Same municipality 81% 3,0% Change of department 47% Same municipality 25% Different town, same department 28% Households that remain un urban area Fuente: ELCA 2010, 2013 Fuente: ELCA 2010, 2013 Households that remain un rural area

16 Changes in income and migration Áreas Urbanurbanas areas 95% 968,950 Other Otro municipality municipio (rural area) (zona rural) -195,348-19% Change of vereda Otra vereda -482,448-48% -1,000, , ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Migrating to urban areas is associated with a higher income (95 % higher) Migration to rural areas implies a reduction in the rural households income.

17 Poverty Dynamics: some remain in poverty, others overcome it and others fall into it 60 % of poor households (Income poverty, spending under the poverty line) ,5 get out of poverty 29,9 7.5 Fall into poverty 24,1 get out of poverty 37,7 9.1 Fall into poverty Stay in poverty 22.4 Stay in poverty Only original households Source: ELCA 2010, 2013 URBANO RURAL (4Microrregiones)

18 Source: ELCA 2010, 2013 Households experience unexpected shocks Urban area employment Empleo Salud Familia Vivienda Health Family Housing activos assets High or Alta o media medium Baja Low Desastres Producción Violencia Disasters Production Violence % of households that suffered shocks during the last three years Rural area (4 Micro regions) 5.8 Alta High y or media medium Baja Low Production Producción Health Salud Disasters Desastres Housing Vivienda Familiar Empleo Violencia Family employment Violence assets activos

19 Microrregiones rural Impact of violence shocks on socioemotional development Employment Empleo Health Salud Disasters Desastres The violence shocks that households experience have a negative effect on the children s socioemotional development. Violence Violencia Housing Vivienda assets Muerte del jefe Dead of the head Mayores problemáticas socioemocionales Had a Tuvo choque No Had shock tuvo No choque Shock

20 Microrregiones rural Impact of violence shocks on nutritional development The percentage of children who suffer from chronical malnutrition is considerably higher in rural households that suffered violence shocks Health Salud Violencia Violence 12% 17% Desastre Disasters Employment Empleo Housing assets Vivienda Producción Production 4 Had a 9 14 Tuvo shock choque No Had tuvo no choque shock

21 Labor market transitions

22 Children & Youth

23 ELCA is an ideal instrument to study the evolution of Colombian children and adolescents Elca contains information of nearly children, socioeconomic household information Antropometric data. Cognitive test PPVT 3-9 years Socioemotional test Ages and Stages Questionaire(ASQ:SE) (2013) 0-5 years Strengths and Difficulties Questionaire (SDQ) (2016) 6-16 years Pregnancy information (prenatal care, breastfeeding) Children s education and health information and vaccination. Caregivers information and parental practices

24 Source: ELCA 2010, Child malnutrition was reduced in the past three years Chronic, acute and global malnutrition by area and year (%) RURAL(4 Micro-regions) URBAN Chronic Global Acute

25 Source: ELCA 2010, 2013 Gaps in receptive vocabulary tests remain unchanged between socioeconomic status PPVT results of panel children: Urban area Puntaje PPVT TVIP score por by age edad Línea Base de line base Puntaje PPVT score TVIP por by age edad First follow-up Primer seguimiento Edad en meses Edad en meses 25% más poorer pobre 25% menos least poor pobre 25% más poorer pobre 25% menos least poor pobre

26 Source: ELCA 2010, 2013 Gaps in receptive vocabulary tests remain unchanged between urban & rural areas PPVT results of panel children Puntaje PPVT TVIP score por byedad age Línea Base de base line Puntaje PPVT TVIP score por byedad age First follow-up Primer seguimiento Edad en meses 95% CI CI Urbano Microrregiones Rural micro-regions Rural Edad en meses 95% CI CI Urbano Rural Microrregiones micro-regions rural

27 PPVT score Relationship between malnutrition in 2010 and verbal ability in No Yes Global 2010 Acute 2010 Chronic 2010 Global 2010 Acute 2010 Chronic 2010 Urban Rural micro-regions

28 Urban Rural (4Micro-regions) The overage is greater among the poorer Overage by wealth tertiles Panel children 2010 (5-9 years old) 2013 (7-13 years old) Tercil Highest 3 Middle Tercil 2 4.5% 5.9% 10.1% 11.2% Lowest Tercil 1 5.1% 20.9% Tercil Highest 3 1.6% 6.7% Middle Tercil 2 1.9% 10.6% Lowest Tercil 1 3.8% 21.0% Source: ELCA 2010, % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

29 % of pnel children Fuente: ELCA 2010, 2013 Household shocks affect educational attainment 7% Dropped out of school at least for two consecutive months over the last three years (Urban area) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Health Choque shock Salud No tuvo choque Had no shock Tuvo choque Had a shock Employment Choque Empleo shock

30 Rural Development

31 ELCA is an ideal instrument to study the social well-being in rural areas (case of postconflict) Changes in land ownership and land use. Access to social protection programs. Political participation and electoral behaviour Security perception The sample includes regions that have been occupied by guerrilla groups and armed conflict.

32 Fuente: ELCA 2010, 2013 Land owning % of rural households Land owner Does not own land but works it Informal property Self report Unaware

33 Fuente: ELCA 2010, 2013 Land dynamics in rural households Land adquisition 9.1 Formalization of land property rights 10.2 Sold Land 2.6 Lost land % Households

34 Land use related to years of presence of armed groups 25% 20% * 15% 10% 5% * * * * * * 0% -5% crops Pasture Unexploited land -10% -15% Investment The presence of illegal armed groups leads to more cattle raising and to more unexploited lands. For example, households in regions where armed groups have been present for four years, have 7.4pp more land unexploited.

35 Changes in consumption and land owning Total Consumption Sold Land 1,023,973 Land adquisition -559,972 Formalization of land property rights 564, , , , , , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 The formalisation of lands relates with higher well being Selling land: Are the households selling land to finance their consumption Buying Land: Are the households adjusting their consumption so they can buy land?

36 Strategies to reduce attrition First wave: Results of cognitive and nutrition development: sent to each household Contact information of friends and relatives (contacts) Small gift for each household Call center: permanent contact with households to update location information SMS each month: (birthday, mother/father day, Christmas, new year) Raffles (each household has a raffle ticket) 5 bathroom kits (tiles, toilet, sink, shower) 2 monthly gift cards to redeem at largest supermarket in Colombia (US$275)

37 Difficulties in the field Questionnaire length In urban area it takes on average 3.2 hours + tests In rural area it takes on average 5 hours + tests Rejections Especially in urban areas, people are not willing to spend too much time on the survey. People see no benefit from the survey The survey delivers the book of the ELCA to households of higher socioeconomic status. In 2016 the survey will deliver a flier explaining the use of the information.

38 Difficulties in the field Others In 2010 the survey asked the households what gift they would like in 2013, so households were expecting these gifts. Children results: Many results did not arrive and some people did not understands them. The community leaders expect the University to help them resolve the community needs reported on the questionnaire.

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40 Thank you