How Americans See Trade

Transcription

1 How Americans See Trade Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes AAPA, March 20, 2018

2 Pew Research Center Established 1996 Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington Research topics: U.S. politics Media and the news Social trends Religion Internet and technology Science Hispanics Global public opinion and migration

3 DON T UNDERESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CHANGING SOCIAL CONTEXT IN VIEWS OF TRADE March 22,

4 Americans Have Experienced Dramatic Change in One Lifetime % % Non-white Foreign-born White, no college education , living with parents Births to unmarried women Women in the workforce Share of wealth owned by top 1% Source: Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas analysis based on data from U.S. Census Bureau, Pew Research Center, U.S. Dept. of Labor and T. Piketty. March 22,

5 AMERICAN VIEWS ON TRADE ARE PARTISAN AND CHANGING Sept. 18,

6 Americans Have Opinions About Trade But It Is Not a Priority is a top priority for the president and Congress Change Note: In 2013 and earlier, the item dealing with the issue of immigration asked about illegal immigration. In 2015 and earlier, the item Dealing with global climate change asked about global warming. Significant differences in bold. Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan.10-15, Change % % % % % % Defending against terrorism Improving education Strengthening nation s economy Reducing health care costs Protecting environment Improving job situation Problems of poor and needy Reducing budget deficit Strengthening the military Dealing with immigration Dealing with climate change Dealing with global trade March 22,

7 In Principle Americans Favor Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a for the United States 80% Good thing Bad thing Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, March 22,

8 But Its Democrats Not Republicans Who Favor Such Agreements Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing for the United States 100 % Democrats Republicans Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, March 22,

9 Women, Young People, Minorities Most Supportive of FTAs Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing for the United States TOTAL Women Men 50 52% Hispanic Black White 47 Note: Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, March 22,

10 Older White Men Are the Most Negative on Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a for the United States Good thing Bad thing % % TOTAL Population White men Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, March 22,

11 People in Midwest, Rural Areas Most Likely to See FTAs as Bad Free trade agreements have been a for the United States TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Urban Suburban Rural % % % % % % % % Good thing Bad thing Source: Pew Research Center survey, conducted Oct , March 22,

12 Americans Are Split on the Value of Involvement in the Global Economy When Reminded of the Costs Which statement comes closer to your view about U.S. involvement in the global economy? Bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs in the U.S. Good thing because it provides U.S. with new markets and opportunities for growth 49% 44% Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 12-19, March 22,

13 Three-in-Ten Say Increased Outsourcing Has Hurt Their Job or Career Each of the following has done more to Increased outsourcing of jobs to other countries Help their job or career 7% Hurt their job or career 30% Growing number of immigrants working in U.S More foreign-made products being sold in U.S Automation of jobs Growing emphasis on diversity in the workplace More women in workforce 30 5 More U.S.-made products being sold abroad 23 5 Note. Based on those who are employed, unemployed but looking for work or who have looked but couldn t find a job. Majorities (not shown here) say these trends haven t made much of a difference for their job or career. Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted Aug and Sept 14-28, March 22,

14 And Few Think Free Trade Deals Boost the Economy, Wages or Jobs Free trade agreements Make economy grow 25% Make wages higher Create jobs Slow economy down 42% Make wages lower Lead to job losses Don't make a difference 18% Don't make a difference Don't make a difference Note: Other and Don t know responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, March 22,

15 Before the Election a Sharp Partisan Divide Existed on TPP % of registered voters saying the Trans-Pacific Partnership would be a for the U.S. Bad thing Good thing All voters 44% 35% Clinton supporters Trump supporters Note: Based on registered voters. Source: Survey conducted Oct 20-25, 2016 March 22,

16 NAFTA Seen as Good for U.S., Especially by Democrats Total All in all, NAFTA is for the U.S. Bad Good Postgrad College grad Some college HS or less Rep/Lean Rep Conserv Mod/Lib Dem/Lean Dem Cons/Mod Liberal Source: Pew Research Center survey, conducted Oct.25-30, March 22,

17 Republicans Say NAFTA Benefits Mexico More Than the U.S. NAFTA benefits Mexico more than U.S. U.S. more than Mexico Both about equally Total Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem Canada more than U.S. U.S. more than Canada Both about equally Total Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem Source: Pew Research Center survey, conducted Oct.25-30, March 22,

18 All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic March 22,