The Over View of Economic Situation and Strategy of Industrialization in CLMV

Transcription

1 The Over View of Economic Situation and Strategy of Industrialization in CLMV 1. Introduction 2. The Context of ASEAN and the Effectiveness of a Free Trade Area 3. The Strategy for the Economic Development and Industrialization Prof. Minoru Kiryu Faculty of Economics Osaka Sangyo University

2 ASEAN Member Country of ASEAN

3 Map of CLMV

4 12th ASEAN SUMMIT in Cebu

5 Leaders in the Summit

6 Leaders in the Summit

7 Economic Indicators of CLMV (Y2003 ) Myanmar Vietnam Laos Cambodia GDP(M.US $) 21,152 45,210 2,412 4,597 Growth Rate Population (M.) GDP/Capita($) Rate of CPI(%) Export (M.$) 2,510 25, ,771 Import (M.$) 1,932 31, ,732 Rate of Currency($1=) 909Kyat 15,773Dong 10,377Kip 1,027Riel

8 GDP and Population by Country Population and GDP/capita(2003) Population (million) GDP/capita ($) Singapore ,825 Malaysia ,141 Thailand ,244 Indonesia Philippine Vietnam Myanmar Laos Cambodia

9 Industrialization of CLMV GDP Share of Major Group(%) 2004 Agriculture Industry Services Cambodia M 20.2 Lao PDR M 21.3 Myanmar M 9.9 Vietnam M 21.7 Thailand M 38.7 M=manufacturing industry Sources: ASEAN Statistics and Others

10 FDI in CLMV Myanmar Vietnam Laos Cambodia Total FDI in Value (M $) Number of enterprise 7,592 45,917 12,789 3,924 (upto 02) 379 5,130 1,082 N.A FY2004(M.$) 91 2, major country of investment type of industry 1.Singapore, 2.U.K 3.Thailand (in value) Since04,inve stment from China is expanding 1.Singapore 2.Taiwan 3.Korea Manufacturing industry, oil &gas 80% is for hydro power station Thailand Investment from China is increasing Hotel, Garment

11 The Case of Myanmar

12 Economic Conditions Advantageous Constrains Diversification of Land Reasonable Population Good Location Various Natural Resources Cheaper Labor Unforeseeable Political Situation Economic Sanctions from EU,USA Inappropriate Macro Economic Policy Defect of Transparency Lack of Capital Formation Lack of Infrastructure and Energy

13 Strategy of Industrialization Basic Policy Development of Agro-based Industry Development of Export-oriented Industry Encourage of FDI Actual Situation Sluggish of FDI (Discouraged by the Policy) Stagnation of Privatization No Progress of Industrialization

14 Promising Industry in Myanmar Food Processing Industry

15 Garment Industry in Yangon

16 Garment Industry in Myanmar State Foreign Firms (JV) Foreign Firms Domestic Total Enterprises State private -100% Private Provided by Mr..Kudoh,IDE

17 Economic Key Indicators of Myanmar Myanmar GDP, Trade and Social development figures. ( ) GDP (Kyat Billion) GDP - Official growth rate: 13.20% GDP - per capita (PPP): (Kyat) 221,217 GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 50.10% industry: 15.20% services: 34.70% Inflation rate (consumer prices): 16.40% Labor force:(in Million) Current account balance:(us$ billion) 1.23 Exports:(US$ billion) 3.56 Imports:(US$ billion) Population: (million) 55 Sex Structure Male: 49.71% Female: 50.29% Electricity - production: billion kwh Source: Myanmar's Economic Development (Ministry of NPED).

18 Border Area between Myanmar and China

19 Border Trade :Thailand and Myanmar(Mae Sot)

20 Border between Myanmar and Thailand (Mae Sai)

21 The Case of Laos

22 Center of Vientiane

23 Economic Conditions Advantageous Political Stability Rich Water Resource Cheaper Labor Linkage with Thai Economy Vast Undeveloped Land Constrains Land Locked Country Few Population Few Usable Resources Lack of Capital Formation Lack of Infrastructure

24 Strategy of Industrialization Basic Policy Development Subcontracts from Thailand Development Import Substitute Industry Encourage of FDI Utilization of E-W Corridor Actual Situation Expansion of FDI from Thailand and China Established SEZ on the way of E-W Corridor Investment to SMI from Japanese Firms in Thailand

25 Economic Key Indicators of Laos Growth Rate GDP % Agriculture Industry Services Structure of GDP % Agriculture Industry Services External Trade change % Export Import Trade Balance Population (million)

26 Promising Industry in Laos

27 The Case of Cambodia

28 Economic Conditions Advantageous Constrains Political Stabilization Potentiality of Agriculture Resources of Tourism Industry Progress of Liberalization Utilization of ODA Weakness of Government Administration Lack of Infrastructure Lack of Capital Formation Undeveloped of Industrial Structure

29 Strategy of Industrialization Basic Policy Encourage of FDI Stabilization of Macro Economy Promotion of Export-oriented Industry Actual Situation Expansion of SEZ FDI for Garment Industry Development of Agro-Industry

30 Economic Key Indicators of Cambodia * Growth rate of GDP % GDP per capital (US$) Total Investment/GDP % Private Investment/GDP % National Saving/GDP % Export/GDP % Import/GDP % Trade Balance/GDP % Population (million) source: Ministry of Economy and Finance, Cambodia

31 Promising Industry

32 Tourism in Cambodia

33 The Case of Vietnam

34 The Economic Condition and The Strategy of Industrialization in Vietnam Economic conditions (advantageous) Strong law and regulation Suitable macro economic policy Favorable flow of FDI Political stability (constrains) (1) Strong control by the state (2) Precedence of State enterprises (3) Workers trouble (4) Increase of wage Strategy of Industrialization (Basic Policy) *Utilization and encourage of FDI *Parallel development for Import substitution and export Industry (Actual situation) High growth rate of industrial production Expansion of export FDI smoothly increase (Strategy) From labor intensive to high tech. industry (automobile, various spare parts, electrics)

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36 Thank You