Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar"

Transcription

1 Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive. By George Friedman U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke on the telephone with the president of Taiwan. This caused deep upset because it was counter to an understanding in place since President Richard Nixon opened the door with China in This understanding included an American endorsement of the one-china policy, which held that Taiwan is part of China but would continue to behave as if it weren t. The United States agreed not to have diplomatic relations with Taiwan and pretend it isn t a close ally. The agreement was a fairly meaningless concession that allowed the Chinese to domestically claim they had forced the U.S. to capitulate on an important issue. This was important for China. By speaking with the Taiwanese president, Trump undermined that agreement. The Chinese responded by saying that President Trump will be judged differently than President-elect Trump, and they remained calm. The context of this agreement should be recalled. When Nixon went to China, the Vietnam War was still being fought, and it had weakened U.S. military capabilities sufficiently that it was unclear if the U.S. could resist Soviet military action in Europe. The Chinese fought a major battle in 1969 with the Russians on the Ussuri River, along the Siberian-Chinese border. Sino- Soviet relations had plummeted in the 1960s, and China was worried about a Soviet attack, including a nuclear strike. 1 / 5

2 (click to enlarge) The Soviets seemed to be in a position to confront either China or the U.S. in Europe, but not both simultaneously. The U.S. needed to tie the Soviets down by posing a counterthreat of a notional strike against the Soviets in Europe and Asia, simultaneously. Soviet transportation did not allow for rapid force movement, and coercing the Soviets to divide those forces between two fronts dramatically reduced their ability to mass strategically overwhelming power. Coordination between the U.S. and China in the 1970s led to the Chinese permitting American intelligence listening posts in China to intercept Soviet trafficking. This was the context in which the agreement on Taiwan was made. Two powers faced serious strategic problems. Geopolitics trumped ideology, as it often does, and the two powers reached an understanding that achieved vital strategic goals for both. The Chinese asked for something incredibly trivial in this context. They asked the U.S. to acknowledge that there is only one China, while China agreed not to invade Taiwan. Given the stakes, the U.S. readily agreed to such a fantasy. Taiwan was very much independent of China and a close ally of the U.S. China was too weak to invade Taiwan. But China needed domestic political cover, and its ability to claim an American capitulation on the Taiwan issue was important. The U.S. didn t want to expose the Chinese politically, so if this was what they needed, Nixon would capitulate. He knew there would be posturing in the U.S. Congress, but he could weather it. The U.S. closed its embassy in Taiwan and reopened it as the American Institute in Taiwan, a nongovernmental 2 / 5

3 organization that happened to be manned by U.S. diplomats. Travel, trade, investment and arms sales continued as if nothing had happened, since in fact, nothing had. Much time has passed since that deal, and a few things have happened. The Soviet Union collapsed. The Vietnam War ended. Vietnam is the U.S. partner and is hostile to China. Chairman Mao is dead, and China has surged economically as the last generation s low-wage, high-growth economy. The U.S. is obsessed with the Islamic world. The foundations of the agreement on Taiwan have evaporated, but the reality is the same. Taiwan is an independent country despite what anyone including Taiwan says, and it is a close U.S. ally. In addition, Chinese exports have undercut American industry, as the movement of the U.S. industrial sector to China, among many other countries, has created an economic and social crisis in the U.S. Trump won the election because of that social crisis, and one of his major commitments was to restructure the U.S.-China relationship. Hence the phone call. By making the call Trump signaled to China that he is prepared to act unilaterally if the Chinese are not prepared to renegotiate the relationship, and everything is on the table. Trump selected a high-visibility, low-content issue Taiwan to demonstrate his indifference to prior understandings. Critics say Trump attacked the foundations of U.S.-Chinese relations. It s true in a way, but Trump had pledged to change the foundations of that relationship. 3 / 5

4 Chinese magazine Global People features a cover story that translates to Why did Trump win at a newsstand in Shanghai, on Nov. 14, JOHANNES EISELE/AFP/Getty Images Whatever Trump s reasons for moving on the Taiwan issue in this way matters little. His move in the context of U.S. imperatives regarding China and his campaign pledges could alter the U.S.-Chinese relationship established during the Nixon administration. It is important to note the common tendency to assume that observers are smarter than the political leaders whose behavior they are analyzing. This attitude prevents one from realizing that Trump is completely clear on what he is doing and what it means. While the rest of society enjoys belittling political leaders as a sport, becoming president of the United States is an enormous struggle that the brightest professor cannot navigate. There is no reason to assume Trump didn't know what he was doing and simply acted out of malice. China s ability to counter is limited. It has money in American banks, and if the Chinese want to redeposit that money in European banks, it s their risk to take. Their military capabilities remain limited. Their navy remains no match for the U.S. Navy, and they can t afford a war whose outcome they can t predict. The U.S. is 25 percent of the world s economy. China can t walk away from the U.S. without enormous pain. The U.S. can t afford to leave the relationship 4 / 5

5 Powered by TCPDF ( Geopolitical Futures unchanged, and China may not be able to stonewall Trump as they did with other presidents. Taiwan is no more important in 2016 than it was in Accepting the one-china policy never shifted the fundamental reality of Taiwan-U.S. relations, but it gave cover for the Chinese in a strategic context that has long ago disappeared. This puts China in a very difficult situation. China desperately needs access to American markets to avoid slipping deeper into economic stagnation. It understands that trade relations with the U.S. are a core strategic interest. At the same time, President Xi Jinping needs to appear as a strong and intimidating force in the world to bolster his position in China. Trump signaled to China that he can take away what Nixon gave them. By doing what Nixon did using volatility and unpredictability to intimidate Trump set the stage for a negotiation that China can t refuse. China must have access to American markets even if the terms become less favorable. Previous presidents were prepared to posture but did nothing substantial about China. With a single phone call, Trump did what he seems to do best baffle and unnerve a negotiating partner. Is he crafty or is he crazy? Trump has shifted the issue from what China is willing to do, to how far Trump is prepared to go. 5 / 5

Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2 Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2 Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict. By George Friedman This article is the second in a series. Read

More information

The Dispensability of Allies

The Dispensability of Allies The Dispensability of Allies May 17, 2017 Trump brings unpredictability to his talks with Middle East leaders, but some things we already know. By George Friedman U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Turkish

More information

A New Phase in US-China Relations

A New Phase in US-China Relations A New Phase in US-China Relations July 31, 2017 The threat of war on the Korean Peninsula has shifted dynamics between the world s two largest economies. By Jacob L. Shapiro North Korea conducted another

More information

NATO and the United States

NATO and the United States NATO and the United States Jan. 18, 2017 The president-elect has pointed out a reality many choose to ignore. By George Friedman President-elect Donald Trump deeply upset the Europeans by raising the possibility

More information

China s Uncertain Future. Laura DiLuigi. 19 February 2002

China s Uncertain Future. Laura DiLuigi. 19 February 2002 China s Uncertain Future Laura DiLuigi 19 February 2002 From the moment President Richard Nixon visited China and signed the Shanghai Communique in 1972, the precedent was set for the extraordinary relationship

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Evan Medeiros

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Evan Medeiros CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Evan Medeiros Episode 78: Trump Will Honor One China Policy February 11, 2017 Haenle: Welcome to the Carnegie Tsinghua China in the World podcast. I

More information

Elections and Obama's Foreign Policy

Elections and Obama's Foreign Policy Page 1 of 5 Published on STRATFOR (http://www.stratfor.com) Home > Elections and Obama's Foreign Policy Choices Elections and Obama's Foreign Policy Choices Created Sep 14 2010-03:56 By George Friedman

More information

An American Recession and the World

An American Recession and the World An American Recession and the World April 26, 2017 The U.S. appears to be on the cusp of a cyclical recession. By George Friedman A recession in the United States is likely to come in the next two years.

More information

The US Is Not Abandoning Asia

The US Is Not Abandoning Asia The US Is Not Abandoning Asia Feb 13, 2017 A look at US military and investment positions in the Asia-Pacific region. Originally produced on Feb. 6, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC George Friedman and

More information

Feb. 1, 2017 As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk.

Feb. 1, 2017 As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk. Immigration Chaos Feb. 1, 2017 As long as illegal immigration is permitted, the foundations of American culture are at risk. By George Friedman Last week, President Donald Trump temporarily blocked both

More information

The Philippines Criticizes China

The Philippines Criticizes China The Philippines Criticizes China Feb. 24, 2017 The honeymoon phase of the Philippines opening to China is over. By Jacob L. Shapiro China s commerce minister canceled a planned trip to the Philippines

More information

Report Public Talk INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES

Report Public Talk INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES web: www.issi.org.pk phone: +92-920-4423, 24 fax: +92-920-4658 Report Public Talk China s Foreign Policy After the 19th National Congress of CPC and its International Relations

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Robert Ross

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Robert Ross CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Robert Ross Episode 88: Are China s New Naval Capabilities a Game Changer? June 19, 2017 Haenle: Bob Ross, thank you very much for being with us today

More information

Ask an Expert: Dr. Jim Walsh on the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Ask an Expert: Dr. Jim Walsh on the North Korean Nuclear Threat Ask an Expert: Dr. Jim Walsh on the North Korean Nuclear Threat In this interview, Center contributor Dr. Jim Walsh analyzes the threat that North Korea s nuclear weapons program poses to the U.S. and

More information

What the Paris Agreement Doesn t Say About US Power

What the Paris Agreement Doesn t Say About US Power What the Paris Agreement Doesn t Say About US Power June 7, 2017 Trump s decision to pull out of the deal doesn t indicate a waning U.S. presence in the world. By Jacob L. Shapiro U.S. President Donald

More information

A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge

A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge A Purge Is a Purge Is a Purge Aug. 1, 2016 Four major global powers are in the midst of different types of purges. By Jacob L. Shapiro Coups may be going out of style, but purges are in vogue. Some of

More information

The Internet and the Tragedy of the Commons

The Internet and the Tragedy of the Commons The Internet and the Tragedy of the Commons Jan. 4, 2017 The expectation of anonymity online has become extreme. By George Friedman The tragedy of the commons is a concept developed by a British economist

More information

2017 National Security Strategy: Question and Answer

2017 National Security Strategy: Question and Answer 2017 National Security Strategy: Question and Answer 1. How does this strategy put America First? Where is the America First in this Strategy? This strategy puts America first by looking at all challenges

More information

Nationalism, Internationalism and New Politics

Nationalism, Internationalism and New Politics Nationalism, Internationalism and New Politics Nov. 30, 2016 A new political dichotomy is replacing the old left vs. right divide. By George Friedman The world is experiencing a shift from the old liberal-conservative

More information

In China, a New Political Era Begins

In China, a New Political Era Begins In China, a New Political Era Begins Oct. 19, 2017 Blending the policies of his predecessors, the Chinese president is trying to liberalize with an iron fist. By Matthew Massee The world has changed since

More information

The Dutch Elections and the Looming Crisis

The Dutch Elections and the Looming Crisis The Dutch Elections and the Looming Crisis March 17, 2017 A class struggle is emerging in Euro-American society. By George Friedman Geert Wilders, the nationalist candidate for prime minister of the Netherlands,

More information

Puzzling US Policy on North Korea

Puzzling US Policy on North Korea Puzzling US Policy on North Korea February 1, 2018 When will the president make a clear decision? By Jacob L. Shapiro On Jan. 29, 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush gave his second State of the Union

More information

The Roots of Hillary Clinton s Foreign Policy

The Roots of Hillary Clinton s Foreign Policy The Roots of Hillary Clinton s Foreign Policy Oct. 18, 2016 The candidate has not shifted her strategy to respond to the changing reality in the international system. By George Friedman This is an election

More information

China's Strategy. Jan. 11, Originally produced Jan. 4, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC. By George Friedman

China's Strategy. Jan. 11, Originally produced Jan. 4, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC. By George Friedman China's Strategy Jan. 11, 2016 Originally produced Jan. 4, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC By George Friedman The sharp decline in Chinese stock markets on Monday is a reminder of two things. The first

More information

Hearing on the U.S. Rebalance to Asia

Hearing on the U.S. Rebalance to Asia March 30, 2016 Prepared statement by Sheila A. Smith Senior Fellow for Japan Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on the U.S. Rebalance

More information

2. The State Department asked the American Embassy in Moscow to explain Soviet behavior.

2. The State Department asked the American Embassy in Moscow to explain Soviet behavior. 1. The Americans become increasingly impatient with the Soviets. 2. The State Department asked the American Embassy in Moscow to explain Soviet behavior. 3. On February 22, 1946, George Kennan an American

More information

Trump, the Presidency and Policymaking

Trump, the Presidency and Policymaking Trump, the Presidency and Policymaking Jan. 11, 2017 What makes a president great isn t what you think. By George Friedman There are four classes of people in Washington. There are those who research policy

More information

THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS. US HISTORY Chapter 15 Section 2

THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS. US HISTORY Chapter 15 Section 2 THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS US HISTORY Chapter 15 Section 2 THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS CONTAINING COMMUNISM MAIN IDEA The Truman Doctrine offered aid to any nation resisting communism; The Marshal Plan aided

More information

A United India. The Access To Global Stability. Naved A Jafry. November 2009

A United India. The Access To Global Stability. Naved A Jafry. November 2009 A United India The Access To Global Stability By Naved A Jafry November 2009 A United India: The Access To Global Stability A unified India could be the key to world stability. When United States of America,

More information

Beijing s Taiwan Policy After the 2016 Elections

Beijing s Taiwan Policy After the 2016 Elections Sam Nunn School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology September 3, 2017 Cross-Strait Stalemate As a Commitment Problem A Dynamic Cold Peace Cross-Strait Stalemate As a Commitment Problem

More information

POST COLD WAR U.S. POLICY TOWARD ASIA

POST COLD WAR U.S. POLICY TOWARD ASIA POST COLD WAR U.S. POLICY TOWARD ASIA Eric Her INTRODUCTION There is an ongoing debate among American scholars and politicians on the United States foreign policy and its changing role in East Asia. This

More information

Issue: American Legion Statement of U.S. Foreign Policy Objectives

Issue: American Legion Statement of U.S. Foreign Policy Objectives Issue: American Legion Statement of U.S. Foreign Policy Objectives Message Points: We believe US foreign policy should embody the following 12 principles as outlined in Resolution Principles of US Foreign

More information

Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia

Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia June 23, 2017 Jihadism in Marawi is actually a good thing for U.S. strategy in Asia. By Phillip Orchard Cooperation among Southeast Asian states has never come easy, but

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Wang Yizhou

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Wang Yizhou CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Wang Yizhou Episode 3: China s Evolving Foreign Policy, Part I November 19, 2013 You're listening to the Carnegie Tsinghua "China in the World" podcast,

More information

Trump-Modi meet must go beyond power plays and photo ops

Trump-Modi meet must go beyond power plays and photo ops Trump-Modi meet must go beyond power plays and photo ops The maverick persona of Trump and Modi alike offers the potential for their first summit to upend the world order and rewrite the rules that will

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Zhao Hai

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Zhao Hai CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Zhao Hai Episode 72: Electing Donald Trump: The View from China November 10, 2016 Haenle: Today I m delighted to welcome Dr. Zhao Hai, a research fellow

More information

China and Hong Kong s Status Quo

China and Hong Kong s Status Quo China and Hong Kong s Status Quo Nov. 16, 2016 Hong Kong s High Court rules vocal pro-independence members should lose council seats. By Brendan O Reilly Hong Kong s nascent pro-independence movement has

More information

Introduction to the Cold War

Introduction to the Cold War Introduction to the Cold War What is the Cold War? The Cold War is the conflict that existed between the United States and Soviet Union from 1945 to 1991. It is called cold because the two sides never

More information

Cold War Conflicts Chapter 26

Cold War Conflicts Chapter 26 Cold War Conflicts Chapter 26 Former Allies Clash After World War II the US and the Soviets had very different goals for the future. Under Soviet communism the state controlled all property and economic

More information

Strategic Developments in East Asia: the East Asian Summit. Jusuf Wanandi Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, CSIS Foundation

Strategic Developments in East Asia: the East Asian Summit. Jusuf Wanandi Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, CSIS Foundation Strategic Developments in East Asia: the East Asian Summit Jusuf Wanandi Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, CSIS Foundation Economic development in East Asia started 40 years ago, when Japan s economy developed

More information

Europe and North America Section 1

Europe and North America Section 1 Europe and North America Section 1 Europe and North America Section 1 Click the icon to play Listen to History audio. Click the icon below to connect to the Interactive Maps. Europe and North America Section

More information

Campaigning in the Eastern European Borderlands

Campaigning in the Eastern European Borderlands Campaigning in the Eastern European Borderlands Nov. 15, 2016 Countries in the borderlands ultimately won t shift foreign policy to fully embrace Russia. By Antonia Colibasanu Several countries in the

More information

Balance of Power. Balance of Power, theory and policy of international relations that asserts that the most effective

Balance of Power. Balance of Power, theory and policy of international relations that asserts that the most effective Balance of Power I INTRODUCTION Balance of Power, theory and policy of international relations that asserts that the most effective check on the power of a state is the power of other states. In international

More information

NATIONAL SENIOR CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION NOVEMBER 2015 HISTORY: PAPER I SOURCE MATERIAL BOOKLET FOR SECTION B AND SECTION C

NATIONAL SENIOR CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION NOVEMBER 2015 HISTORY: PAPER I SOURCE MATERIAL BOOKLET FOR SECTION B AND SECTION C NATIONAL SENIOR CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION NOVEMBER 2015 HISTORY: PAPER I SOURCE MATERIAL BOOKLET FOR SECTION B AND SECTION C PLEASE TURN OVER Page ii of v SOURCE A An extract from a speech by George C. Marshall,

More information

This Week in Geopolitics

This Week in Geopolitics This Week in Geopolitics Isolationism vs. Internationalism: False Choices BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN MAY 10, 2016 Since World War I, US policy has been split between isolationism and internationalism. From debates

More information

Section 1: Nixon and the Watergate Scandal

Section 1: Nixon and the Watergate Scandal Chapter 25 Review Section 1 Chapter Summary Section 1: Nixon and the Watergate Scandal Richard Nixon was reelected in 1972 by a landslide due in part to his southern strategy. The Watergate scandal caused

More information

American Legion Support for a U.S. Foreign Policy of "Democratic Activism"

American Legion Support for a U.S. Foreign Policy of Democratic Activism American Legion Support for a U.S. Foreign Policy of "Democratic Activism" The American Legion recognizes the unprecedented changes that have taken place in the international security environment since

More information

Anthony Saich The US Administration's Asia Policy

Anthony Saich The US Administration's Asia Policy Anthony Saich The US Administration's Asia Policy (Summary) Date: 15 November, 2016 Venue: CIGS Meeting Room, Tokyo, Japan 1 Anthony Saich, Distinguished Visiting Scholar, CIGS; Professor of International

More information

AUGUST 7, Good morning. My name is Leo Gerard, and I am the International President of the

AUGUST 7, Good morning. My name is Leo Gerard, and I am the International President of the CERTAIN PASSENGER VEHICLE AND LIGHT TRUCK TIRES FROM CHINA PUBLIC HEARING BEFORE THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE AUGUST 7, 2009 TESTIMONY OF LEO W. GERARD INTERNATIONAL PRESIDENT UNITED STEEL, PAPER

More information

STAPLETON ROY, CHAIRMAN, UNITED STATES ASIA PACIFIC COUNCIL OPENING ADDRESS, ANNUAL WASHINGTON CONFERENCE, NOV. 30, 2006

STAPLETON ROY, CHAIRMAN, UNITED STATES ASIA PACIFIC COUNCIL OPENING ADDRESS, ANNUAL WASHINGTON CONFERENCE, NOV. 30, 2006 STAPLETON ROY, CHAIRMAN, UNITED STATES ASIA PACIFIC COUNCIL OPENING ADDRESS, ANNUAL WASHINGTON CONFERENCE, NOV. 30, 2006 Good morning. Let me add my welcome to all of you for participating in the Fourth

More information

Cold War Containment Policies

Cold War Containment Policies VUS.13b Cold War Containment Policies How did the U.S. respond to the threat of communist expansion? "Flags courtesy of www.theodora.com/flags used with permission" Origins of the Cold War The Cold War

More information

Firmly Promote the China-U.S. Cooperative Partnership

Firmly Promote the China-U.S. Cooperative Partnership Firmly Promote the China-U.S. Cooperative Partnership Commemorating the 40 th Anniversary of the Shanghai Communiqué Cui Tiankai Forty years ago, the Shanghai Communiqué was published in Shanghai. A milestone

More information

U.S.-Japan Opinion Survey 2017

U.S.-Japan Opinion Survey 2017 Confronting North Korea s nuclear and missile programs: American and ese views of threats and options compared - Opinion Survey 2017 January 8, 2018 Brookings Institution The Genron NPO Survey Methodology

More information

Session 1: A Multi-polar World in Crisis: A Chinese Perspective

Session 1: A Multi-polar World in Crisis: A Chinese Perspective China, the European Union and the Restructuring of Global Governance 6 and 7 May 2010, Brussels Session 1: A Multi-polar World in Crisis: A Chinese Perspective Intervention by Xiaobing Tang 1. Has the

More information

China Watch. Tremors in the East

China Watch. Tremors in the East China Watch A China Business Report prepared by David Mahon, Executive Chairman, and the partners of Mahon China Investment Management Ltd W I N T E R 2 0 1 6-2 0 1 7 the wise man, embracing unity as he

More information

The Future of the Nation-state in an Era of Globalization

The Future of the Nation-state in an Era of Globalization CADMUS, Volume 3, No.4, May 2018, 32-38 The Future of the Nation-state in an Era of Globalization Abstract Managing Director, Global Directions; Fellow, World Academy of Art & Science This article uses

More information

Public Schools: Make Them Private by Milton Friedman (1995)

Public Schools: Make Them Private by Milton Friedman (1995) Public Schools: Make Them Private by Milton Friedman (1995) Space for Notes Milton Friedman, a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution, won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1976. Executive Summary

More information

JAPAN-CHINA PEACE TREATY (1978):

JAPAN-CHINA PEACE TREATY (1978): Chapter 7 THE CONCLUSION OF THE JAPAN-CHINA PEACE TREATY (1978): SOVIET COERCWE POLICY AND ITS LIMITS 1. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CONCLUSION OF THE TREATY FOR THE SOVIET UNION On August 12, 1978, after six

More information

Xi Jinping s Policy Challenges. Tony Saich Canon Institute Tokyo October 9, 2018

Xi Jinping s Policy Challenges. Tony Saich Canon Institute Tokyo October 9, 2018 Xi Jinping s Policy Challenges Tony Saich Canon Institute Tokyo October 9, 2018 1 Being Explicit can be Problematic Ironically, the international community has been pressuring China to be more explicit

More information

World History (Survey) Restructuring the Postwar World, 1945 Present

World History (Survey) Restructuring the Postwar World, 1945 Present World History (Survey) Chapter 33: Restructuring the Postwar World, 1945 Present Section 1: Two Superpowers Face Off The United States and the Soviet Union were allies during World War II. In February

More information

President-Elect Donald Trump

President-Elect Donald Trump President-Elect Donald Trump Nov. 9, 2016 His victory proves he and the class of voters who elected him cannot be overlooked. By George Friedman Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States.

More information

Chinese Views of Post-2014 Afghanistan

Chinese Views of Post-2014 Afghanistan Chinese Views of Post-2014 Afghanistan Zhao Huasheng Asia Policy, Number 17, January 2014, pp. 54-58 (Article) Published by National Bureau of Asian Research DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2014.0008

More information

<LDP/Komeito coalition DIDN T win in the snap election in Japan>

<LDP/Komeito coalition DIDN T win in the snap election in Japan> East Asia Quarterly Review Third Quarter of 2017 CIGS/FANS November 2017 The following is a latest copy of East Asia Quarterly Review by Canon Institute for Global Studies Foreign Affairs and National

More information

FRANCE. Geneva Conference 1954

FRANCE. Geneva Conference 1954 FRANCE Geneva Conference 1954 Name Instructions: You are representing your country at the Geneva Conference convened in May 1954 to deal with the crisis in Indochina. In attendance are the Democratic Republic

More information

UNIT Y222 THE COLD WAR IN ASIA

UNIT Y222 THE COLD WAR IN ASIA UNIT Y222 THE COLD WAR IN ASIA 1945-1993 NOTE: BASED ON 2 X 50 MINUTE LESSONS PER WEEK TERMS BASED ON 6 TERM YEAR. Key Topic Term Week Number Indicative Content Extended Content Resources Western Policies

More information

China s Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping

China s Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping 10 Пленарное заседание Hu Wentao Guangdong University o f Foreign Studies China s Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping The main external issues confronted with China Firstly, How to deal with the logic o f

More information

Reading Essentials and Study Guide

Reading Essentials and Study Guide Lesson 2 China After World War II ESSENTIAL QUESTION How does conflict influence political relationships? Reading HELPDESK Academic Vocabulary final the last in a series, process, or progress source a

More information

The Clinton Administration s China Engagement Policy in Perspective

The Clinton Administration s China Engagement Policy in Perspective The Clinton Administration s China Engagement Policy in Perspective Peter D. Feaver Associate Professor of Political Science Duke University Durham, NC 27708 (919) 660-4331 (919) 660-4330 {fax} pfeaver@duke.edu

More information

The following text is an edited transcript of Professor. Fisher s remarks at the November 13 meeting. Afghanistan: Negotiation in the Face of Terror

The following text is an edited transcript of Professor. Fisher s remarks at the November 13 meeting. Afghanistan: Negotiation in the Face of Terror 1 The following text is an edited transcript of Professor Fisher s remarks at the November 13 meeting. Afghanistan: Negotiation in the Face of Terror Roger Fisher Whether negotiation will be helpful or

More information

JCC Communist China. Chair: Brian Zak PO/Vice Chair: Xander Allison

JCC Communist China. Chair: Brian Zak PO/Vice Chair: Xander Allison JCC Communist China Chair: Brian Zak PO/Vice Chair: Xander Allison 1 Table of Contents 3. Letter from Chair 4. Members of Committee 6. Topics 2 Letter from the Chair Delegates, Welcome to LYMUN II! My

More information

Paris, Sharm el-sheikh and the Resurrection of Old Europe

Paris, Sharm el-sheikh and the Resurrection of Old Europe Paris, Sharm el-sheikh and the Resurrection of Old Europe Nov. 25, 2015 Europe is considering its options following the Islamic State s attacks on French and Russian targets. By George Friedman The attacks

More information

Reasons Trump Breaks Nuclear-Sanction Agreement with Iran. Declares Trade War with China and Meets with North Korea. James Petras

Reasons Trump Breaks Nuclear-Sanction Agreement with Iran. Declares Trade War with China and Meets with North Korea. James Petras Reasons Trump Breaks Nuclear-Sanction Agreement with Iran Declares Trade War with China and Meets with North Korea James Petras Introduction For some time, critics of President Trump s policies have attributed

More information

National Security Policy. National Security Policy. Begs four questions: safeguarding America s national interests from external and internal threats

National Security Policy. National Security Policy. Begs four questions: safeguarding America s national interests from external and internal threats National Security Policy safeguarding America s national interests from external and internal threats 17.30j Public Policy 1 National Security Policy Pattern of government decisions & actions intended

More information

U.S.-Taiwan Economic Relations: Domestic and International Drivers

U.S.-Taiwan Economic Relations: Domestic and International Drivers U.S.-Taiwan Economic Relations: Domestic and International Drivers President Donald Trump made headlines shortly after his electoral victory by accepting a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan s president,

More information

20 th /Raffel The Foreign Policy of Richard Nixon

20 th /Raffel The Foreign Policy of Richard Nixon 20 th /Raffel The Foreign Policy of Richard Nixon Was the administration of Richard Nixon successful in achieving the goals he envisioned in the realm of foreign affairs? About Richard Nixon: President

More information

Contents. Preface... iii. List of Abbreviations...xi. Executive Summary...1. Introduction East Asia in

Contents. Preface... iii. List of Abbreviations...xi. Executive Summary...1. Introduction East Asia in Preface... iii List of Abbreviations...xi Executive Summary...1 Introduction East Asia in 2013...27 Chapter 1 Japan: New Development of National Security Policy...37 1. Establishment of the NSC and Formulation

More information

How Diplomacy With North Korea Can Work

How Diplomacy With North Korea Can Work PHILIP ZELIKOW SUBSCRIBE ANDREW HARNIK / POOL VIA REUTERS U SNAPSHOT July 9, 2018 How Diplomacy With North Korea Can Work A Narrow Focus on Denuclearization Is the Wrong Strategy By Philip Zelikow At the

More information

One Belt and One Road and Free Trade Zones China s New Opening-up Initiatives 1

One Belt and One Road and Free Trade Zones China s New Opening-up Initiatives 1 Front. Econ. China 2015, 10(4): 585 590 DOI 10.3868/s060-004-015-0026-0 OPINION ARTICLE Justin Yifu Lin One Belt and One Road and Free Trade Zones China s New Opening-up Initiatives 1 Abstract One Belt

More information

The Growth of the Chinese Military

The Growth of the Chinese Military The Growth of the Chinese Military An Interview with Dennis Wilder The Journal sat down with Dennis Wilder to hear his views on recent developments within the Chinese military including the modernization

More information

Take careful note of the instructions in italics. There are several times you will need to hand your phone over to the voter.

Take careful note of the instructions in italics. There are several times you will need to hand your phone over to the voter. Canvass Script Guidelines for using the script Questions in color are tied to screens in the Swing Left Pledge Tool. Sections in [ grey ] are district specific. Ask your host for help if these sections

More information

Contacts with US federal states must be intensified to try circumventing the extensive presidential powers in matters of trade policy.

Contacts with US federal states must be intensified to try circumventing the extensive presidential powers in matters of trade policy. Facts & Findings prospects for german foreign policy December 2017 no. 248 The Future of US-German Relations (I): Trade Policy Working Group of Young Foreign Policy Experts Key Points Should the US enter

More information

The Principal Contradiction

The Principal Contradiction The Principal Contradiction [Communist ORIENTATION No. 1, April 10, 1975, p. 2-6] Communist Orientation No 1., April 10, 1975, p. 2-6 "There are many contradictions in the process of development of a complex

More information

and the role of Japan

and the role of Japan 1 Prospect for change in the maritime security situation in Asia and the role of Japan Maritime Security in Southeast and Southwest Asia IIPS International Conference Dec.11-13, 2001 ANA Hotel, Tokyo Masahiro

More information

The 1960s ****** Two young candidates, Senator John F. Kennedy (D) and Vice-President Richard M. Nixon (R), ran for president in 1960.

The 1960s ****** Two young candidates, Senator John F. Kennedy (D) and Vice-President Richard M. Nixon (R), ran for president in 1960. The 1960s A PROMISING TIME? As the 1960s began, many Americans believed they lived in a promising time. The economy was doing well, the country seemed poised for positive changes, and a new generation

More information

The Washington Post Barton Gellman, Washington Post Staff Writer March 11, 1992, Wednesday, Final Edition

The Washington Post Barton Gellman, Washington Post Staff Writer March 11, 1992, Wednesday, Final Edition The Washington Post Barton Gellman, Washington Post Staff Writer March 11, 1992, Wednesday, Final Edition Keeping the U.S. First Pentagon Would Preclude a Rival Superpower In a classified blueprint intended

More information

NIDS International Security Seminar Meeting the Challenge of China's Rise: A New Agenda for the Japan-U.S. Alliance

NIDS International Security Seminar Meeting the Challenge of China's Rise: A New Agenda for the Japan-U.S. Alliance NIDS International Security Seminar Meeting the Challenge of China's Rise: A New Agenda for the Japan-U.S. Alliance Supported by its remarkable growth as the world s second largest economy, China is rapidly

More information

The Significance of the Republic of China for Cross-Strait Relations

The Significance of the Republic of China for Cross-Strait Relations The Significance of the Republic of China for Cross-Strait Relations Richard C. Bush The Brookings Institution Presented at a symposium on The Dawn of Modern China May 20, 2011 What does it matter for

More information

Interview with Victor Pickard Author, America s Battle for Media Democracy. For podcast release Monday, December 15, 2014

Interview with Victor Pickard Author, America s Battle for Media Democracy. For podcast release Monday, December 15, 2014 Interview with Victor Pickard Author, America s Battle for Media Democracy For podcast release Monday, December 15, 2014 KENNEALLY: Under the United States Constitution, the First Amendment protects free

More information

Guided Reading Activity 28-1

Guided Reading Activity 28-1 Guided Reading Activity 28-1 DIRECTIONS: Filling in the Blanks In the space provided, write the word or words that best complete the sentence Refer to your textbook to fill in the blanks 1 The presidential

More information

Merkel s Twilight Arrives

Merkel s Twilight Arrives Merkel s Twilight Arrives November 21, 2018 Angela Merkel s legacy may not be all she hoped for but her successor won t have it much easier. Tomorrow marks Angela Merkel s 4,748th day as German chancellor

More information

Gemini Shippers Group Update on Trump Trade Policy

Gemini Shippers Group Update on Trump Trade Policy Gemini Shippers Group Update on Trump Trade Policy June 6, 2017 Ronald A. Oleynik Holland & Knight (202) 457-7183 ron.oleynik@hklaw.com Copyright 2017 Holland & Knight LLP. All Rights Reserved Trump Trade

More information

Regime Change and Globalization Fuel Europe s Refugee and Migrant Crisis

Regime Change and Globalization Fuel Europe s Refugee and Migrant Crisis Regime Change and Globalization Fuel Europe s Refugee and Migrant Crisis Right-wing populists are exploiting the migration issue in both the United States and Europe, but dismissing their arguments would

More information

China. Outline. Before the Opium War (1842) From Opium Wars to International Relations: Join the World Community

China. Outline. Before the Opium War (1842) From Opium Wars to International Relations: Join the World Community China International Relations: Join the World Community Outline Foreign relations before the Opium Wars (1842) From Opium Wars to 1949 Foreign Policy under Mao (1949-78) Foreign policy since 1978 1 2 Before

More information

What Is At Stake For The United States In The Sino-Russian Friendship Treaty?

What Is At Stake For The United States In The Sino-Russian Friendship Treaty? What Is At Stake For The United States In The Sino-Russian Friendship Treaty? Nikolai September 2001 PONARS Policy Memo 200 Monterey Institute of International Studies The new Treaty on Good-Neighborly

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Su Hao

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Su Hao CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Su Hao Episode 14: China s Perspective on the Ukraine Crisis March 6, 2014 Haenle: You're listening to the Carnegie Tsinghua China in the World Podcast,

More information

Remarks of Ambassador Locke USCBC Washington, DC Thursday, September 13, 2012

Remarks of Ambassador Locke USCBC Washington, DC Thursday, September 13, 2012 As prepared for delivery Remarks of Ambassador Locke USCBC Washington, DC Thursday, September 13, 2012 Thank you, John, for that very kind introduction. It is a pleasure to be among so many good friends

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Zhao Hai

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Zhao Hai CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Zhao Hai Episode 72: Electing Donald Trump: The View from China November 10, 2016 Haenle: Today I m delighted to welcome Doctor Zhao Hai, a research

More information

qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqw ertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwert yuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyui opasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopa sdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdf

qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqw ertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwert yuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyui opasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopa sdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdf qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqw ertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwert yuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyui opasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopa China and Vietnam: An Enigma in Southeast Asian International Relations sdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdf

More information

Thought Leader Summary. Heather Conley SVP for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, CSIS

Thought Leader Summary. Heather Conley SVP for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, CSIS Prospects and Priorities for U.S. Gray Zone Competition Center for Strategic and International Studies Tuesday, November 27, 2018 Heather Conley SVP for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe

More information

Imperfect Union: The Constitution Didn't Foresee Divided Government - The Atlantic

Imperfect Union: The Constitution Didn't Foresee Divided Government - The Atlantic POLITICS Imperfect Union: The Constitution Didn't Foresee Divided Government Watching the battle between Obama and a Republican Congress for two years may shake Americans' faith in the Framers. 1 of 8

More information