IDENTIFYING THE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE EVACUATION DECISIONS OF FLORIDA TOURISTS WHEN HURRICANES STRIKE

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1 IDENTIFYING THE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE EVACUATION DECISIONS OF FLORIDA TOURISTS WHEN HURRICANES STRIKE Executive Summary By Center for Tourism Research & Development Tourism Crisis Management Institute Department of Tourism, Recreation and Sport Management University of Florida P.O. Box Gainesville, FL 32611, USA (352) (phone) (352) (fax) Submitted to: Eric Friedheim Foundation Building Belfort Road Jacksonville, FL January 2010

2 Executive Summary The executive summary is based on responses from 465 surveys completed between July 21, 2009 and August 9, More than half (66.1%) of the respondents had visited Florida before. Only 33.9% were first time visitors. Of those who had been to Florida, 20.2% had visited once, while 16.8% had done so twice during the last five years. About 39.5% respondents indicated that they planned to stay in Florida for 5-10 days, while 39.5% reported 5-10 days, and 31.6% noted days. More than half (64.6%) of the respondents arrived to Florida via air transport; 30.9% noted using a personal vehicle, while a rental vehicle represented 18.4%. Only 2.6% used public transportations. While in Florida, hotels (37.7%) and resorts (34.3%) were most frequently used, while 12.2% reported having stayed at friends and family s house. Lodging at a bed & breakfast and campgrounds were extremely underrepresented (0.4%). The size of the travel group during their visit to the destination varied from two (18.7%), four (31.2%) and five (10.9%) people. A small percentage of travelers traveled alone (4.6%). About one-third (33.3%) of respondents traveled to the destination with age group composition of more than 18 years. Among other respondents, 28.3% traveled with two people under 18 years old, while 20.7% reported one person. Most respondents (46.0%) indicated that they were very likely to take another vacation to Florida, while 17.5% noted they were likely to return in the next two years. However, 13.1% reported that they were very unlikely and 7.7% noted unlikely to return. Also, 15.7% of respondents were uncommitted and could not decide. Respondents were asked to evaluate perceptions of their general attitude and emotion. Majority of respondents (80.7%) reported that they would much rather be safe than sorry. Similarly, respondents (92.1%) also reported that they would like to make well-informed decisions. Additionally, respondents (88.9%) indicated that they were generally a happy person. Slightly more than half of respondents (59.6%) reported that they were not easily frightened. Respondents were asked to evaluate their knowledge about hurricanes and results demonstrated that they were generally knowledgeable about the basics, however, additional education and information dissemination needs to be implemented. More than half of respondents (69.3%) responded correctly that the hurricane season in Florida extended from June 1 to November 30 while 9.6% of respondents were incorrect. However, 21.1% noted that they did not know. More than half of respondents (62.7%) responded correctly that it is rare for hurricane-force winds to affect cities that are located inland away from the coast. About 20.8% responded incorrectly while 16.4% reported that they did not know. Similarly, 69.9 % reported correctly that Category 1 hurricane has the least intensity among all hurricanes, while 10.6% noted otherwise, and 19.5% noted that they did not know.

3 Similarly, 63.2% noted correctly that when a hurricane warning is issued, it means that immediate preparations need to be made as hurricane conditions should begin within 24 hours. However, 16.9% reported incorrectly, while 20.0% reported that they did not know. Most of the respondents (73.4 %) reported that they had no past experience with hurricanes or typhoons when traveling; while 26.6% indicated otherwise. Of those who had past experience, 45.5% indicated that they remained at the destination; 26.1% noted to have relocated to another destination, while 19.4% canceled the rest of the trip and returned home. Participants were also asked if their family or friends have ever been affected by a hurricane or typhoon. Responses were split with 47.9% to have been affected while 52.1% noted otherwise. Respondents used multiple media sources to obtain information about hurricanes, as the majority (85.3%) overwhelmingly noted local television, followed by the Weather Channel (45.0%), internet/websites (43.1%), hotel staff (32.5%) and newspaper (21.6). Only 12.1% respondents reported that they asked other tourists to obtain more information about hurricanes. Respondents were also asked if they had checked the possibility of a hurricane striking their current destination before departing for the trip. Only 31.0% noted to have done so, while 69.0% reported not have checked prior to departure. Respondents were almost evenly distributed between gender groups with slightly more males (51.2%) than females (48.8%). The age of respondents was relatively skewed towards middle age as 54.0% were between years old. About 5.3% were under 20 while 28.6% were between years old. Only 12.1% were representative of respondents that were over 60 years of age. Respondents were fairly well educated with 24.3% reported a Masters or higher degree, and 32.8% had a bachelors degree. High school education was reported by 31.2% of the respondents. Similarly, respondents were also fairly affluent with 39.7% reported a combined household income of $100,000 and above. About 36% had incomes between $50,000-$99,999, while 8.4% noted less than $24,000. The majority of respondents identified themselves as Caucasian (73.5%) and 8.9% reported to be Hispanic or Latino. About 6.4% noted to be African-American and 4.3% were Asian. Slightly more than half (54.0%) of the respondents were from the United States with 16.3% from Florida, followed by Pennsylvania (3.4%) and New York (2.6%). International respondents represented 46 % and were from the UK (54.8%), followed by Canada (7.0%) and Brazil (7.0%). A significant relationship existed between the residence of the tourists when it was segmented into Florida, Non-Florida, UK, and Non-UK, with most tourists from outside Florida were not first time visitors. A significant relationship was found between the residence of the tourists and the likelihood of a revisit to the destination, regardless their residences. More than half of tourists from outside Florida; Non-Florida (71.4%), UK (50.5%), and Non-UK (56.2%), indicated that they were either likely or very likely to revisit the destinations.

4 There was a significant relationship found between the residence of the tourists and their knowledge of hurricanes. Most tourists from Florida (80%) had basic knowledge about hurricanes compared to tourists that were from outside Florida. A significant relationship was also found between the residence of the tourists and their past experience with hurricanes or typhoons while traveling. Those who had no prior knowledge with hurricanes or typhoons comprised of: Florida (60.3%), Non-Florida (72.2%), UK (74.3%), and Non-UK (83.3%). There was a significant relationship found between the residence of the tourists and the actions taken during hurricanes. Out of those who did not have a prior experience with hurricanes or typhoons while traveling, almost half of them chose to stay in the destination, especially from international tourists UK (81.5%) and Non-UK (52.9%). There was a significant relationship found between the residence of the tourists and the past experience of hurricanes or typhoons by their family or friends. More than half of the International tourists; UK (64.4%) and Non-UK (67.4%) did not have family or friends that had been previously affected by hurricanes or typhoons. A lack of a significant relationship was found between the residence of the tourists and the likelihood to checking for hurricane strikes prior departure. Regardless their residence, more than half of the tourists (68.0%) did not check the likelihood of hurricane strikes prior to departure. The stated-preference analysis indicated the strong impacts of several factors on hurricane evacuation decisions. In general, the likelihood for evacuation was higher for more severe scenarios (category 4, 24 hours to land fall, longer duration for hurricane-force winds, etc.). Additionally, the decisions also varied and were dependent on the type of travel behaviors (especially the mode of transportation) demographics (gender), and other factors (attitudes and emotions). More specific summary of findings are noted below: Respondents were less likely to evacuate if the center-line of the projected hurricane-path was offset from the location (i.e., the projected center-line path of the hurricane did not pass right though the survey location). Respondents were less likely to evacuate when a hurricane approached from the Atlantic (as opposed to the Gulf). Respondents were more likely to evacuate if a hurricane was to make land-fall within one day (as opposed to 48 hours). The category of the hurricane had a strong impact as tourists were more likely to evacuate to category 4 as opposed to category 1 hurricane. Tourists were more likely evacuate if the duration of the hurricane activity (hurricane-force winds) at the current location was prolonged. Tourists in a coastal location (St. Petersburg/Clearwater) were more likely to evacuate compared to an in-land location (Orlando).

5 The evacuation decisions were affected by hurricane knowledge and experience as tourists who lacked knowledge were more likely to evacuate. Individuals who were personally affected by hurricanes in the past were less likely to evacuate. Also, respondents decisions were also not affected by their friends /family s experiences with hurricanes. Individuals who had specifically checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike at the destination prior to travel were estimated to be more likely to evacuate. The travel mode had a strong impact on the evacuation decision as those who flew were less likely to evacuate whereas those who drove are more likely to do so. The effect of the group size did not have any significant impact on evacuation behaviors. With respect to gender, men were less likely to evacuate than women. Those who were more frightened or perceived a higher risk also indicated a higher likelihood of evacuation. Similarly, those who were less frightened or perceived a lower risk also indicated a lower likelihood of evacuation. There was a significant relationship between residence of tourists and visitation in Florida, likelihood of traveling back to Florida, their knowledge of hurricanes, and past experiences with hurricanes. Project Lead Coordinator: Dr. Brijesh Thapa