Labor market integration within the NAFTA region: beyond the migration rhetoric. Miguel Jimenez. August, 2013
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1 Labor market integration within the NAFTA region: beyond the migration rhetoric Miguel Jimenez August, 2013
2 I. SCOPE AND REASONS FOR THE RESEARCH 1. Free Trade Agreement and Migration debate over the 1990s: the challenges ahead a) US. Increase unwanted migration. b) De-industrialization as has happened in Europe, traditional manufacturing cities and regions. b) Canada increase the brain drain c) Mexico: Mexican Industrial Sectors hit by price-quality competition Factors to consider affecting migration: Push-pull factor, the availability of jobs in the US Labor market government interventions vs lesser faire EU -Schengen Trade and Investment, Economic growth rates, total work force, unemployment, Demography.
3 US-Mexico FDI & Foreign Trade milion dollars Mexico FDI Exports Mexico Imports Mexico Source: World Trade Organization. Yearbook of World Trade Statistics. Various years
4 100% Mexico's exports destinations by region % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Million US dollars (Thousands) REST OF THE WORLD CHINA NIC S AELC EU (27) CENTRAL AMERICA ALADI NAFTA Total Trade 0% Source: World Trade Organization. Yearbook of World trade Statistics. Various years
5 Imports from Mexico and Legal Migration milion dollars Imports Mexico T Legal migration Source: World Trade Organization. Yearbook of World Trade Statistics. Various years and Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate
6 US Annual Unemployment Rate & Employment Related Visas Issued , % 500, % 400, % 300, % 200, % 100, % % US E, H, L, TN Unemployment rate Source: United States Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Seasonally Adjusted, various years and Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate. Various years
7 II. Migration 1. Migration. Legal: US definition according to the US Immigration Law a) Illegal Entry with out Inspection (EWI) b)total migration: Legal Naturalization (Citizen) Immigrant (LPR) Visa Preferences: Family, Asylum Refugees; Work-related Non-Immigrant Temporary Visa
8 2,500,000 US New Legal Permanent Residents (Immigrants) ,000,000 Axis Title 1,500,000 1,000,000 South America Oceania Europe Asia North America Mexico 500,000 - Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
9 2,000,000 US New Immigrants (all countries) and All Employment Preferences new Immigrants ,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Axis Title 1,000, ,000 Total, all immigrants Employment-based immigrants 600, , ,000 0 Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security
10 Job related preferences 1996 All preferences China, People's Republic 12.9% 1 Mexico 17.9% 2 Canada 9.1% 2 Soviet Union, former 6.8% 3 India 8.0% 3 Philippines 6.0% 4 Philippines 7.4% 4 India 4.7% 5 United Kingdom 4.9% 5 Vietnam 4.4% 6 Korea 4.7% 6 Dominican Republic 4.0% 7 Taiwan 3.3% 7 China, People's Republic 3.9% 8 Mexico 3.0% 8 Cuba 2.9% 9 Soviet Union, former 3.0% 9 Canada 2.4% 10 El Salvador 2.3% 10 Jamaica 2.0%
11 II. Migration 1. Migration. Legal: US definition according to the US Immigration Law Total migration: Legal VS Illegal Non-Immigrant Visa Immigrant (LPR) Naturalization (Citizen) b) Immigrant Preferences: Family, Asylum & Refugees Preferences VS Work-related Preferences c) Non-Immigrant Visas Pleasure and Business VS Work related Work related breakdown Visa Type and Countries (education India) H1B Visa and India, education
12 10,000,000 Total US (all countries) Non-immigrant Visa & Work related Visa ,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 Axis Title 5,000,000 4,000,000 Total US nonimmigrant issued visa 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, US Total labor related visa (H, L, TN) Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
13 600,000 All Countries Issuance by Work Related Visa Type , , , , ,000 Intra company H2B Non agricultural s services H2A Agricultural s services H1B High Skill Treaty Trader and investor (E1) Temp-worker performing agricultural services (H1A) Trainee (H3) NAFTA Proffessional (TN) Temp-worker of distinguish merit and ability (H-1B) Temp-worker performing services (H2B) Intracompany Transferee (L) Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
14 45% Work Related Visas (E, H, L, & TN) Top Countries % India 35% 30% Japan MEXICO Axis Title 25% 20% UK SKOREA CHINA INDIA 15% UK Mexico JAPAN 10% 5% 0% Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
15 50,000 Master s Degrees in STEM Fields Awarded to Foreign Nationals ,000 40,000 35,000 Psychology Social Sciences 30,000 Mathematics Physical Sciences 25,000 20,000 15,000 Engineering Economics Computer Science Agricultural Biological Sciences 10,000 5,000 0 India China Taiwan South Korea Nepal Saudi Arabia Canada Japan Turkey Thailand Source: Immigration of Foreign Nationals with Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Degrees Ruth Ellen Wasem. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Ruth Ellen Wasem
16 II. Migration 1. Migration. Legal: US definition according to the US Immigration Law a) Total migration: Legal VS Illegal b) Naturalization (Citizen) c) Immigrant (LPR) Visa VS Non-Immigrant Temporary Visa d) Immigrant Preferences: Family, Asylum & Refugees Preferences VS Work-related Preferences e) Non-Immigrant Visas Pleasure and Business VS Work related Work related breakdown Visa Type and Countries Total legal migration and job related share f) Actual Migration
17 2.000% All countries Non-immigrant E, H, L, & TN Visas holders Admitted as share of Total US-Employment % 1.600% US Total Population ,709, ,421, ,745, % 1.200% 1.000% 0.800% 0.600% 0.400% US All visa admittances 17,574,000 33,660,320 36,231,554 Mexico all admmitances 1,348,000 4,135,319 8,648,763 Canada 1,897,000 2,321,071 2,362,223 All countries admittances 7.1% 12.0% 11.7% Mexico as % US population 0.5% 1.5% 2.8% Canada 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.200% 0.000% Work-Rel Entries/ Labour Force Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security and Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate
18 45,000,000 40,000,000 All Countries Non-Immigrant Admission & All VisaTypes ratio 35,000, ratio 30,000,000 Axis Title 25,000,000 20,000,000 All countries Admission All Countries All Visa Type 15,000,000 10,000, ratio 5,000, Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security and Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
19 All Countries. Job Related Immigrants Admitted as Temporary workers Total temporary workers and families 1, ,210, % Canada 1,186, % Mexico 665, % India 315, % Japan 178, % United Kingdom 114, % Korea, South 81, % Germany 70, % France 63, % China 45, % Australia 34, % Top % All other 453, % Total temporary workers and 1996 All countries 335, % United Kingdom 43, % Canada 39, % Japan 32, % India 31, % Mexico 24, % Germany 16, % France 14, % China 13, % Brazil 7, % Australia 7, % Top % All other 105, % Source: Year book of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security.
20 45.0% 40.0% - HB1 Visa Holders (Workers in Specialty Occupations) Admitted into the US. Top 10 Countries % 30.0% % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% % All other India United Kingdom Japan Germany France Mexico China Canada Brazil Australia S. Korea Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security
21 H2B Visa Holders (NON-Agricultrural Seasonal Workers) Admitted into the US. Top 10 Countries % 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% % % 20.0% 10.0% % Australia Canada China France Germany India Japan Mexico United Kingdom All other Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security
22 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% - L Visa Holders (Intra-company Transferees) Admitted into the US. Top 10 Countries % % % 5.0% % All other United Kingdom Japan Germany China France Canada Mexico Brazil Australia India S. Korea Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security.
23 60.0% E1/E3 & TN Visa Holders (Treaty Trader & Investors + NAFTA) Admitted into the US. Top 10 Countries % 40.0% 30.0% E1/E3 & TN 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Canada Mexico Japan India S. Korea United Kingdom Germany France Australia China All other Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security.
24 III. Mexico 1. Total Migration 2. Legal-Illegal estimations
25 Annual immigration from Mexico to the US (Thousands) Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates compiled from various sources; US and Mexico Census estimations
26 Five-Year Migration Flows Between the U.S. and Mexico, and (Thousands) Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates from population, household and migrant microdata samples of Mexican censuses of 2000 and 2010; Mexico to U.S.
27 Main occupation of Mexican immigrants in the US. Percentages (foreign born) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% AGRICULTURE PROFESSIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICE RETAIL & WHOLESALES RECREATION AND FOOD SERVICE Source: Based on the Current Population Survey. U.S. Bureau of the Census MANUFACTURE CONSTRUCTION
28 MEXICO-US LEGAL IMMIGRATION
29 IV. Mexico Total Legal Migration. Key Findings 1. Total. All-Visa types 2. Total work-related visas Breakdown by Class and Share of Total
30 3,000,000 Mexico Total Legal Migration Work related shares ,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Employment related visas Mexico Non-immigrant Employment-based preferences Mexico immigrant 500,000 - Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
31 2,500,000 Mexico. All Visa Type and Work-Related Visa as percent of Total % 16.0% 2,000, % 12.0% Axis Title 1,500,000 1,000, % 8.0% 6.0% 500, % 2.0% % Mexico Visa all Types Labor related as Percent of All Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
32 180,000 Mexico. Work-related NON-Immigrant Visas Share of All Countries W-R Visas % 160, , , % 25.0% 100, % 80, % 60,000 40, % 20, % % Mx E, H, L & TN Mx % of All countries E, H, L, TN Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
33 450,000 Mexico's Breakdown Temporary Work-related Visas % 400, % 350,000 TN cap ended 25.0% 300,000 Axis Title 250, ,000 NAFTA 20.0% 15.0% NAFTA (TN) Intra-company (L) Temporary other services (H2B) Temporary agriculture (H2A) Temporary distinguish merit (H1B) 150,000 % of Total 10.0% 100,000 50, % - 0.0% Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
34 IV. Mexico Total Legal Migration 1. Total. All-Visa types 2. Total work-related visas 3. Total Admittances and Visa Ratios Labor-related Visas by Type and share by Class Skill VS Non-skilled 4. Share of Total Employment Canada and Mexico
35 10,000,000 Non Immigrant Admissions (All Classes) & Visa (All Types) ,000,000 8,000,000 7,000, % of Total Admissions 7.29 ratio 20.7% of Total Legal Admissions 6,000,000 Axis Title 5,000,000 Mexico Admissions (all classes) Mexico Visa Issuance (all types) 4,000, ratio 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ratio Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security and Source: Report of the Visa Office. Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate.
36 Mexico. Work related Non-immigrant Visa Holders Admitted ,000 17% 300, , , ,000 93% Mexico 1996 Mexico ,000 50,000 8% 78% 11% 1% 3% 91% 39% 3% 0 (H1B) (H2A) (H2B, H2R) (L1) (E1 to E3) & TN * % of Total Visa Type
37 70.0% Mexico: High Skill VS Low Skills Admitances in the US 1996 and % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% High Skill (H1B, L1 & TN) Low Skill (H2A & H2B) 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Mexico 1996 Mexico 2011 Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security and
38 35.0% Mexico and Canada Shares All countries Non-immigrant E, H, L, & TN Visas holders Admitted (Adjusted to size of labor market) % 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% CANADA MEXICO Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. United States Department of Homeland Security and Bureau of Consular Affairs. United States Department of Sate
39 IV. Mexico Total Legal Migration 1. Total. All-Visa types 2. Total work-related visas 3. Total Admittances and Visa Ratios Labor-related Visas by Type and share by Class Skill VS Non-skilled 4. Share of Total Employment Canada and Mexico 5. PERMANENT CERTIFICATON. Immigration by Class, Sectors of the Economy, Work Type, Cities
40 Sector of the Economy & H Visa Type (PERM ) US Sector H-1B H-2A H-2B Total Cumulative EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 28.0% % 25.6% ADVANCED MFG 20.0% - 4.8% 18.7% 44.2% OTHER ECONOMIC SECTOR 12.7% 10.3% 36.4% 16.7% 60.9% IT 13.4% % 73.2% FINANCE 6.8% % 79.4% CONSTRUCTION 2.0% % 3.7% 83.1% AEROSPACE 6.5% % 86.7% AGRIBUSINESS 1.0% 84.6% 12.3% 2.8% 89.5% HOSPITALITY 0.8% 5.1% 19.3% 2.1% 91.6% HEALTH CARE 2.3% % 93.7% AUTOMOTIVE 1.9% - 1.1% 1.8% 95.5% RETAIL 1.5% % 96.9% TRANSPORTATION 1.3% - 1.6% 1.3% 98.2% ENERGY 1.2% % 99.3% BIOTECHNOLOGY 0.5% % 99.8% GEOSPATIAL 0.1% % 99.9% HOMELAND SECURITY 0.04% % 99.96% UNCLASSIFIED 0.04% % 100% Column 100% 100% 100% 100% N=2654 Row 91.5% 1.5% 7.0% 100% Source. United States Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration. Historical Case Disclosure Data on Permanent Labor Certifications.
41 25.0% Main occupation of Mexican Non-immigrants in the US Percentages % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source. United States Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration Case Disclosure Data on Permanent Labor Certifications.
42 Rank/6000 PERM Frequency Percent Cumulativ e Percent 1 Software Developers, Applications Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Software Engineer Computer Systems Analyst Software Developers, Systems Software Electronics Engineers, Except Computer Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Computer and Information Systems Managers Mechanical Engineers Medical, General Network and Computer Systems Administrators Financial Analysts Accountants and Auditors Database Administrators Marketing Managers Operations Research Analysts Industrial Engineers Computer Software Engineer, Applications Management Analysts Electrical Engineers
43 Educational Services
44 Financial Sector H, L, TN
45 Advance Manufacturing
46 Information Technology and Computer Systems
47 Aerospace and Geospatial
48 Conclusions System Works TNC Trade Theory now prevails Legal migration has increased and claims of spite of total migration has decreased Qualitative Change of migration: High skills Legal Framework. Mexico NO-privileges Visa Waiver program Canada Bermuda Exceptions NAFTA Visa, is Mexico Visa
49 Policy Recommendation Mexican Government To gain more access on H1B visas by No Caps to Mexican in H, and L visas for Mexicans as it is on TN Visa Waiver program, Canada Bermuda Exceptions along with enforcement. bolster work programs to facilitate the entry of both highand low skilled workers Benefits. Disincentives to illegal crossings, experience demonstrate that the tougher the measures the more likely the immigrants to remain. Better knowledge of foreign nationals whereabouts, more security. More efficient Labor Market allocation Obama initiative 100K Strong in the Americas Brasil, no other Latin American Country has taken advantage of this program.
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