The Provincial Business Environment Scorecard in Cambodia. A Measure of Economic Governance and Regulatory Policy. Summary Report.

Transcription

1 The Provincial Business Environment Scorecard in Cambodia A Measure of Economic Governance and Regulatory Policy Summary Report October 26, 2006 A partnership between the International Finance Corporation s Mekong Private Sector Development Facility (IFC-MPDF) and The Asia Foundation with funding support from the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID)

2 Common Abbreviations Asian Development Bank (ADB) Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) Department of Industry, Mines, and Energy (DIME) Department of Commerce (DOC) Department of Tourism (DOT) World Bank s Investment Climate Analysis (ICA) Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (MIME) The International Finance Corporation s Mekong Private Sector Development Facility (IFC-MPDF) Ministry of Commerce (MOC) Ministry of Tourism (MOT) Provincial Business Environment Scorecard (PBES) The Asia Foundation (TAF) Value Added Tax (VAT) World Bank (WB)

3 The Cambodian Provincial Business Environment Scorecard 1 A Measure of Economic Governance and Regulatory Policy Executive Summary Recent research on the development of the Cambodian private sector has highlighted four important and interconnected findings. 2 1) The private sector is the major source of employment in the economy (accounting for 92% total jobs) and will continue to be the dominant source of job creation and poverty reduction for the foreseeable future. 2) Nevertheless, relative to its peers in other Southeast Asian economies, the Cambodian private sector has been inhibited in its ability to grow and create jobs because of a wide spectrum of institutional barriers and constraints to its development. 3) As a result of these institutional barriers, the vast majority of private enterprises have avoided the full formalization of their activities (as measured by whether an enterprise has registered with the Ministry of Commerce). 4) For all unregistered enterprises and most of the registered enterprises as well, the immediate interface with governing institutions is at the local (specifically the provincial/municipal) level. And yet, researchers and those in the donor community understand very little about these interactions, how they affect private sector performance and the choice to formalize, and finally how provincial governance differs across Cambodia. The missing key to our understanding of how to promote the growth and dynamism of the private sector in Cambodia and thereby assist job creation and 1 The Provincial Business Environment Scorecard (PBES) is a partnership between the International Financial Corporation s Mekong Private Sector Development (IFC-MPDF) and The Asia Foundation, with funding support from the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAid). The lead consultant was Edmund Malesky, Assistant Professor at the University of California, San Diego. The field research was carried out by Indochina Research Limited, based in Cambodia. poverty alleviation lies in a thorough understanding of the impact of local institutions on private sector performance. This Provincial Business Environment Scorecard (PBES) is a first attempt to understand this in Cambodia. The PBES is a thorough diagnosis of the comparative economic governance of 10 provinces according to 10 basic criteria (sub-indices). The ultimate goal of the project is to identify the provinces that have excelled at various aspects of provincial governance and communicate the successful practices to struggling provinces. I. The Sub-Indices More detail about how these sub-indices were measured is provided in the final report, but briefly the sub-indices include: i. Entry Costs: A measure of the time it takes firms to register and receive all the necessary licenses to start business, the number of licenses required, and the official costs of obtaining all licenses/permits. ii. Property Rights: A measure of the formal rights to business premises and the security of tenure once land is properly acquired and titled. 2 Development Consulting International, Private Sector Assessment for the Kingdom of Cambodia, TA Report for the Asian Development Bank and Ministry of Industry Mines and Energy. Asian Development Bank: Phnom Penh, December; World Bank Group, 2004a. Cambodia: Economy Profile, Doing Business in 2005: Removing Obstacles to Growth. World Bank: Washington, D.C.; World Bank Group, 2004b. Cambodia Seizing the Global Opportunity: Investment Climate Assessment and Reform Strategy for Cambodia. World Bank: Phnom Penh; Dapice, David Reducing Poverty by Creating a Normal Country, Memorandum to Government of Cambodia; Chandarrot, Kang, The Enabling Environment for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises in Cambodia. Phnom Penh: The Asia Foundation and Cambodian Development Resource Institute. Chandarrot, Kang, Salze- Lozac h, Veronique, and Liv Dannet, Streamlining Local Licensing Procedures in Cambodia. Phnom Penh: The Asia Foundation and Cambodian Institute of Development Study. Cambodia PBES 1

4 iii. iv. Transparency and Access to information: A measure of whether firms have access to the proper planning and legal documents necessary to run their business, whether those documents are equitably available, and whether new policies and laws are communicated to firms and predictably implemented. Participation: The flip-side of Transparency, measuring whether firms are consulted in the creation of provincial policy and whether their interests are represented in policy discussions by business associations or other interest groups. v. Time Costs of Regulatory Compliance: A measure of how much time firms spend on bureaucratic compliance and waiting periods, as well as how often firms must undergo inspections by local regulatory agencies. vi. Informal Charges: A measure of how much firms pay in informal charges, how much of an obstacle those extra fees pose for their business operations, and whether payment of those extra fees are predictable and result in the expected results or services. vii. Crime Prevention: A measure of how much firms pay in explicit costs as a result of crime due to property that is lost or stolen, as well as the implicit costs of preventing crime by paying security and protection money. viii. Tax: A gauge of both the administrative and fiscal burden imposed by tax regulation in the province. ix. Proactivity of Provincial Leadership: A measure of the creativity and willingness of provincial authorities to assist and interpret in favor of local private firms given an often unclear national regulatory framework in implementing central policy and designing their own initiatives for private sector development. x. Dispute Resolution: A measure of the satisfaction firms have in the outcomes of formal and informal modes of dispute resolution in the province. 3 See Appendix 1 for a list of the full set of indicators. II. Methodological Innovation Two general types of data were used to construct the sub-indices. The first is perceptions data, drawn from a face-to-face survey of 500 private firms in 10 provinces. This perceptions (or soft ) data was combined with objective (or hard ) data gathered from published sources, such as statistical yearbooks, the annual provincial budget, first-person collection and interviews with third-parties like state-owned banks and real estate firms. 3 It is important to highlight that while the PBES analysis studies similar issues as previous assessments of the private sector in Cambodia, its methodology differs in two critical ways. First, the PBES research team did not limit its analysis to the formal sector; the explicit goal of the research was to assess the private sector generally and this meant focusing on economic governance toward unregistered firms as well. Fifyeight percent of the firms in our sample are neither registered with the Ministry of Commerce nor even possess the less formal distinction of one-year registration through Municipal/Provincial Department of Commerce. Nevertheless, calling them informal is a misnomer, as 73% have documented their business activities by paying a one-year Patent Tax with the local tax authority. Local officials are aware of their business activities and benefitting from them. The decision to sample from the entire population of enterprises arose from two problems faced in the early stages of the research one methodological and one theoretical. First, in terms of methodology, we found it impossible to obtain similar lists of registered enterprises (or enterprises with one-year operating licenses) between the different provinces; data quality and coverage differed dramatically (if lists existed at all), raising severe concerns about selection bias in the comparison of provincial environments. We thus felt it was necessary to have a well-documented census of all enterprises in the research area from which we could draw a randome sample. Second, theoretically, the ultimate goal of the research was to understand the environment for private sector activity at the provincial level this simply could not be done if 75% of the active private sector was omitted because it was considered informal by government standards, as would have been the case in Banteay Meancheay. Furthermore, as important as it is to understand the constraints faced by the registered sector, it is equally important to understand why such a large portion of private firms (accounting for 80% of GDP and 95% of Cambodia PBES 2

5 employment 4 ) choose not to take the next steps in the formalization of their activities. Certainly, this will be best done in a panel setting with yearly surveys of the same enterprises, but it cannot be done at all if they are eliminated from the study at the outset. The second major difference between the PBES and earlier work on private sector activity in Cambodia is that rather than extrapolating a few provincial-level results from a national-level sample, the research team drew 10 different provincial-level samples, so that it had as accurate a picture as possible of the private sector. To do this, the team performed a detailed census of private sector operation in the capital and the three other major population centers of all the provinces and municipalities. First, the 10 most economically important provinces were selected, including, arguably, all of Cambodia s main economic centers. Collectively, these provinces represent 75% of GDP and 64% of the Cambodian population. 5 While the goal is to eventually extend the PBES analysis to all provinces; in this inaugural year, the decision was made to concentrate on provinces with relatively robust economies. Next, researchers traveled to each of the 10 provinces to undertake a complete census of business activity. Every business operation in a fixed location with at least one employee in addition to the owner was considered an active enterprise for our analysis. In total, 41,775 business operations were identified, and a stratified random sample was drawn from the lists generated by the census. Strata were defined by the number of employees (five different categories) and the sector in which the firms operate (services, manufacturing and construction, and commerce) for a total of 15 different strata. Random selection within these strata ensured that the sample would be reliable representation of the provincial populations. The result of these methodological choices is a far more accurate representation of provincial-level business activity than has been put together thus far in Cambodia. III. The Provincial Business Environment Scorecard The final results of the PBES can be seen in Figure 1 below. The Eastern border provinces of Kampong Cham and Svay Rieng top the list, followed by Kampong Chhnang and Kampot. Kandal, a province encircling the capital city of Phnom Penh, along with Banteay Meanchey and Battambang in the Northwest along the Thai border, rank sixth and seventh Figure 1: The Provincial Business Environment Scorecard (PBES) 4 Development Consulting International, 2003, p Author s own calculation based on Cambodian Statistical Yearbook Cambodia PBES 3

6 respectively. The PBES found that governance is weakest in Phnom Penh, Siem Reap and Sihanoukville. Individual scores can also be seen in Table 1 below. Siem Reap s placement near the bottom of the list may come as a surprise to anyone familiar with the large investment and growth in the hotel and tourist industry in the province. Those who have worked there, however, may be less surprised by Siem Reap s especially low scores on Entry Costs, Transparency, Crime Prevention, Proactivity, and Taxes. Like natural resource rich economies who suffer from the wellknown resource curse, where heavy rent-seeking for access to oil, lumber, and minerals leads to corruption and officials with a little incentive to improve governance, 6 Siem Reap may suffer from an analogous issue related to it tourist potential. Siem Reap s government officials do not have to try as hard as their peers from other provinces to improve their economic situation. Because the Angkor temple complex is located within their borders, they are virtually guaranteed a greater flow of tourist dollars and service activity than their neighbors. Indeed, Siem Riep has the highest GDP per capita outside of Phnom Penh and the PBES survey revealed that its firms enjoyed the highest growth in labor and investment over the past year, while ranking second only to Kampong Cham in willingness of entrepreneurs to expand their business. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that with just small efforts to improve its governance, Siem Riep could be growing even faster. It is important to note that the PBES is solely a measure of economic governance and regulatory policy. It should not be confused with a measure of Total Investment Environment that includes both governance and measures of initial endowments (i.e. structural conditions). If we were measuring the Total Investment Environment, it is obvious that the Phnom Penh, Sihanoukville and Siem Reap would rank significantly higher. 6 Ross, Michael, 2001a. Timber Booms and Institutional Breakdown in Southeast Asia. New York; Cambridge University Press. Ross, Michael, 2001b. Does oil hinder democracy? World Politics 53: Sachs, Jeffrey and Andrew Warner, Natural resource abundance and economic growth. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No Cambodia PBES 4

7 Figure 2: Total Investment Environment Yet such a total investment environment is uninteresting analytically, because provinces with relatively poor initial endowments such as Banteay Meanchey can do little to improve endowments in the short term. Far more useful is the impact in business development than can come from improving the economic governance (measured by the PBES) in the short term. Indeed, all provinces have a great deal of work to do on improving economic governance in particular arenas. The star chart in Figure 3 demonstrates the weakness and strengths of every province relative to the perfect score. No province excels in all areas. Even top-ranked Kampong Cham scores poorly on the Informal Charges, Proactivity, and Dispute Resolution Sub-Indices. Provinces such as Battambang and Kampong Chhnang show highly skewed governance scores with some excellent marks and other areas in need of tremendous improvement. The lowest scoring provinces have room for improvement on every subindex. Figure 3: Star Chart of Provincial Scores on Each Sub-Index Cambodia PBES 5

8 IV. The Impact of Provincial Business Environment While some of these changes may be time consuming and perhaps politically difficult to accomplish, improved governance will almost certainly have an immediate effect on the business development in the region. Statistical analysis of the PBES indicators bears this out. Controlling for firm-level variable such as age, sector, size, and costs, and the provincial-level factors of infrastructure and tourist attraction potential, it can be shown that a one point improvement on the PBES index from the mean score of 56.3 would lead to a 1.2% increase in the probability of firm expansion. Thus, a one standard deviation improvement (7.27 points) from the mean would generate a predicted 8.2% increase in the probability that existing firms will expand their businesses over the next two years. 7 To make this more tangible, if Battambang (given its existing infrastructure, tourist potential, and human capital) were to improve from its present PBES score (56.46 ) to the level of Kampong Cham (72.9), it could expect nearly a 17% improvement in the willingness of existing firms to expand their businesses in the future. Table 2 takes this relationship one-step further by looking at the relationship between governance and willingness to expand in the manufacturing sector thought to be a future source of growth in Cambodia due to its labor cost advantages. 8 On average, there is statistically no difference between the willingness of firms engaged in manufacturing (63.6% of firms) and construction to expand their business than firms in other industries (62.5%). This relationship changes drastically, however, if we look at the options for manufacturing firms in well-governed provinces (defined as provinces with a total PBES score of 59 points or above). Here, we find that in provinces with low PBES scores, manufacturing firms are more reluctant to expand their businesses than firms in other industries (53% to 58%). In provinces with high PBES scores, however, both types of firms envision significant expansion over the next two years with manufacturing far more likely than their peers in commerce or services (73% to 67%). The results are quite striking, the predicted impact of manufacturing expansion will be most pronounced in well-governed regions. Of course a simple willingness to expand can be misleading due to the sometimes irrational optimism of many entrepreneurs, and a more realistic measure of the impact of governance on firm expansion is the actual percentage of employees each firm has added to the labor force over the past year. Once again, we find that the governance is quite influential. A one point increase in PBES from the mean score would likely yield a 2.39% increase in average firm employment. 9 Thus, if Banteay Meanchey were to improve its existing PBES score of to the level of Kampong Chhnang (61.67) without changing its infrastructure or human capital, it could expect firms within its border to increase their employment by 12.7% on average. Indeed, such an improvement would be a much easier short-term goal to accomplish than Banteay Meanchey raising its provincial literacy rate from 62% to the Kampong Chhnang level of 88%, which would yield a predicted 9.36% increase in labor growth per firm. Figure 4 demonstrates the results of the interaction between governance and literacy on net firm hires, controlling for other firm and provincial-level factors. 7 Derived from a firm-level regression with standard errors clustered at the provincial level using Survey Question B_8, Which statement best characterizes your firm s investment plans over the next 2 years? Please see Appendix 2A for more details on regression and robustness analysis. 8 World Bank 2004b; Mohan, T SMEs can be the Drivers of Competitiveness in Cambodia. Cambodian Review, August, p Derived from a firm-level regression with standard errors clustered at the provincial level using three survey questions: [Q7_7a (Number of Permanent Employees Hired 2006) Q7_7b (Number of Permanent Employees Fired 2006)]/ Q6a_b (Number of Permanent Employees in 2005). Please see Appendix 2B for more details on regression and robustness analysis. Cambodia PBES 6

9 Figure 4: PBES and Literacy Rates on Firm Labor Growth Additional hiring in firms is strongly related to improvements in literacy in both high and low scoring provinces. Indeed, the slopes of the two lines are roughly the same indicating that a 10 point improvement in literacy would have about the same 5% increase in labor growth in both types of provinces. But if we take literacy as given, we can see that at each literacy level, firms in well-governed provinces hired more workers on average than those in lower performing regions, controlling for other factors. At the 60% literacy rate, for example, a province with a low PBES score would have experienced a 50% increase in employment on average, whereas a well-governed province about a 62% increase in employment. For provincial officials wishing to prioritize their reform interventions, Table 3 demonstrates that improvements in Entry Costs, Property Rights, Transparency (specifically access to regulatory information), Participation, Informal Charges, and Crime Prevention play the largest role in explaining labor growth. Provincial officials are advised to concentrate on policies that will improve these indicators first before concentrating on the others. Increasing performance on informal charges alone will yield a potential 21% increase in firm labor for every one point improvement. Simply improving the availability of information on registration and licensing would generate a potential 8% average growth in firm level employment. 10 Appendix 3 shows the full regressions that generated these results. Cambodia PBES 7

10 VI. Conclusions This summary has tried to demonstrate three critical points: 1. Provincial governance as measured by the PBES differs drastically across the different regions of Cambodia; 2. All provinces, no matter how high their scores, have room for improvement; and 3. Any governance improvements could generate a large impact on provincial business expansion and employment, but a few key areas will yield enormous returns. The full report of the PBES contains two additional sections: Section 2 documents how each of the PBES subindices was created and how the final scores were assembled into the PBES. Provincial leaders will be best served by paying careful attention to the indicators that comprise each index, as they offer the most vivid portrayal of where they can target their policy initiatives for improvement. The section concludes with an analysis of the impact of individual sub-indices on labor growth. Section 3 provides a detailed methodological discussion of the various phases of the PBES research program. Cambodia PBES 8

11 Appendix: Sub-Indices of the PBES Appendix 1: Detailed Descriptions of Sub-Indices and Components Indicators 1 Entry Costs % of firms registered with the Ministry of Commerce or Municipal Commerce Division Total number of registrations, licenses and permits a firm needs to operate Official fee for One-Year Operating License Waiting period for Registration Certificate from Municipal Commerce Division Official fee for Registration Certificate from Municipal Commerce Division Waiting period for One-Year Operating License Official fee for One-Year Operating License Waiting period for Patent Tax from Local Tax Authority** Official Patent Tax Fee from Local Tax Authority** 2 Land Access and Property Rights % of firms with land documentation % of firms with Solid title to land % of firms who feel expropriation is a risk % of firms renting land from government % of firms who deem rental changes a risk Effective land prices (adjusted for differences in supply and demand)** Rental Revenue per Firm* 3 Transparency Transparency of - and access to - local planning and decrees/ decisions Firm's access to provincial budget % of time that a relationship with a provincial official is necessary for receiving access to land or property documents Favoritism toward firms with political connections is an obstacle to business. Regularity that representatives from the provincial governor s office meet with firms to discuss changes in laws or polices Degree that firms are informed about new economic and finance regulations that affect their business Regularity that a firm receives advance notice about new or changing central government laws Request to Department of Commerce** Request to Departments of Industry Mine, and Energy** 4 Participation Provincial government solicits advice from affected firms on new laws, rules, regulations or decrees There are business associations or clubs in the province Firm membership in any business associations or clubs in the province Number of business associations per 10,000 firms in province** 5 Time Costs % of management time spent dealing with requirements imposed by government regulations Total number of inspections per year Time it took a firm to receive their land title Notes: *Denotes component uses both hard and soft data; **Denotes component uses only hard data; All other indicators are derived from perceptions data; Derived from factor analysis; In all sub-indices each primary component is given equal weight (i.e. Entry Costs has four primary components each worth 25%). 6 Informal Charges Giving gifts to public officials is sometimes required to pass customs, obtain licenses, receive public services, or meet tax requirements % of firms that paid informal charges in application for Patent Tax Firm's assessment of corruption in province Information regarding available public procurement contracts is transparent Importance of government connections for winning public procurement contracts % of firms who believe firms in their industry often pay commissions when doing business with government % of firms that believe government agencies assess additional fees based on what there counterparts are able to acquire Firms usually know how much additional payment is required in their industry Regularity that services are delivered as expected when a firm pays the required additional payment 7 Crime % of firms that experienced losses due to theft, robbery, vandalism, or arson in last year Monetary Value of firm's losses caused by crime % of firms who believe firms in their sector make protection payments to the police % of firms that know firms who have made protection payments in the past 8 Proactivity Provincial government officials' attitude toward private business Attitude of the provincial government toward private business is improving Provincial government interprets law in favor of local firm if certain government regulations are unclear Provincial departments of line ministries tend to interpret in firms favor when central regulation lacks clarity Provincial government is good at working within central laws to create a profitable business environment Provincial government is creative and clever about solving new business problems. Provincial government willingly risks punishment from the central government to pass decisions to aid local businesses There are no initiatives at the provincial level 9 Tax Burden % of Firms that believe bribes to public officials to avoid taxes and regulations are a significant business obstacle % of firms that pay taxes Rate that a firm makes extra payments to expedite tax process % of firms that believe negotiating with tax authority is part of business Tax rates as obstacle (mean) 10 Legal Institutions % of firms who are confident that the legal system will uphold contracts and property rights in disputes Firms ability to go to another official to successfully dispute unjust charges % of monthly total sales in 2005 that were not paid within the agreed time % of monthly sales never repaid in 2005? Firm satisfaction with government dispute resolution Firm's success at recovering money owed to it % of firms in province that believe there is a fair process to dispute changes in rent contracts Cambodia PBES 9 Cambodia PBES 9

12 Entry Costs Sub-Index Transparency Sub-Index Cambodia PBES 10 Annex: PBES Sub-indices Property Rights Sub-Index Time Costs of Regulatory Compliance Sub-Index

13 Informal Charges Sub-Index Crime Prevention Sub-Index Cambodia PBES 11 Participation Sub-Index Tax Administration Sub-Index

14 Cambodia PBES 12 Proactivity of Provincial Authorities Sub-Index Dispute Resolution Sub-Index

15 IFC-MPDF is a multi-donor funded initiative set up by the International Finance Corporation in 1997 in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR, to reduce poverty through sustainable private sector development. The Facility works through six interrelated programs that seek to improve the business environment; develop the financial sector; improve managerial capacity; and increase sustainable business practices in three sectors that are central to economic growth and poverty reduction tourism, agribusiness, and garments. IFC-MPDF s donors are the Asian Development Bank, Australia, Canada, Finland, IFC, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The Asia Foundation is a non-profit, nongovernmental organization committed to the development of a peaceful, prosperous, just, and open Asia-Pacific region. The Foundation supports programs in Asia that help improve governance and law, economic reform and development, women s empowerment, and international relations. Drawing on 50 years of experience in Asia, the Foundation collaborates with private and public partners to support leadership and institutional development, exchanges, and policy research. With a network of 18 offices throughout Asia, an office in Washington, D.C., and its headquarters in San Francisco, the Foundation addresses these issues on both a country and regional level. In 2005, the Foundation provided more than $61 million in program support and distributed 1.1 million books and educational materials valued at $28 million throughout Asia. For more information, visit The Asia Foundation s website at: AusAID is the Australian Government agency responsible for managing Australia s overseas aid program. The objective of the aid program is to assist developing countries reduce poverty and achieve sustainable development, in line with Australia s national interest. AusAID provides advice and support to the Minister and Parliamentary Secretary on development policy, and plans and coordinates poverty reduction activities in partnership with developing countries. AusAID s head office is in Canberra. AusAID also has representatives in 25 Australian diplomatic missions overseas.