Pulling Back from the Brink: Options for National Dialogue in Burundi

Transcription

1 MAENDELEO POLICY FORUM Pulling Back from the Brink: Options for National Dialogue in Burundi Report of the Maendeleo Policy Forum held on 8 October 2015 UNDP Regional Service Centre for Africa, Addis Ababa Ethiopia Disclaimer The views expressed at the Maendeleo Policy Forum and report do not represent UNDP s position on the issue under discussion and remain the position and opinions of participants and panellists. Page 1 of 17

2 Table of Contents Background... 3 The Maendeleo Policy Forum... 4 Panelists and participants... 4 Current situation in Burundi: Dr. Agostinho Zacarias... 5 Regional Perspective of the Conflict: Dr. R. Yolande Bouka... 6 Key Discussion Points... 7 Summary of key Recommendations... 9 Conclusion Annexes: Short Bio of Panelists Concept Note The event Agenda Page 2 of 17

3 1.0 BACKGROUND Burundi runs a presidential system based on multiparty democracy. The legislative arm is a bicameral assembly, consisting of the Transitional National Assembly and the Transitional Senate. In April 2015 protests broke out after the ruling party announced that President Pierre Nkurunziza would seek a third term in office. The aspiration of the President to seek a third term in office was sanctioned by the country s constitutional court. There are differing interpretations of the provisions of the Arusha Accord of 2000 which had prescribed a maximum of two terms for any elected president. The opposition claimed that under the terms of the Arusha Accord, the President could not run for a third term in office. The President s claim of legal right to a third term has been met with stiff opposition and violent resistance. Some see the current crisis as disregarding the country s constitution and the spirit of the 2000 Arusha Accord, a power-sharing agreement which sought to steer the Burundian society from recurrent socio-political convulsions to a stable society. In order to arrest the situation and stem the escalation of violence before the election, the African Union (AU), United Nations (UN), and the East African Community (EAC) had called on the President to shelve his ambition for a third term. Nonetheless, the elections were held on 21 July 2015 which returned President Nkurunziza to office. While the current conflict has been framed as a political crisis, it is pertinent to pay attention to the ever-present intergroup conflicts which seem to have challenged political solutions, administrative formulae, and even legal response. The persistent problem in the Burundian society is its ethnic duopoly, and how to craft systems, mechanisms, and processes for effective governance, pacific co-existence, and social cohesion. Like most ethnic duopolies, if not all, no other groups exist to attenuate conflict between the two major groups in the country. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in its 27 September 2015 update on Burundi 1 reported that a total of 197,269 Burundian refugees and asylum-seekers had arrived in the neighbouring countries of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the United Republic of Tanzania, Rwanda, as well as Uganda and Zambia since April This is a huge rise from the update provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in June The UNOCHA had reported 2 in June 2015 that the crisis had so far resulted in the displacements of more than 70,000 people, many of them children since the political violence and civil unrest broke out in the capital Bujumbura in April. Some 46,000 Burundians found refuge in Tanzania and 26,000 in Rwanda. With the spiralling violence, these figures will be on the increase. In August 2015, the AU Chairperson Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, declared that the post-election situation in Burundi was catastrophic for the country and the wider region, and likely to get out of hand if not contained. In addition to the human cost, the economic effects of the political instability can be observed in almost all sectors of the economy. The Burundi Revenue Authority states that 10b and 16b Burundian Francs (BIF) were lost in total revenues in April and May of this year alone because of the crisis. Business activities have been paralyzed as shops close early because of insecurity, and the banking sector continues to suffer because of large cash withdrawals by those fleeing the crisis. The worst hit is the hospitality industry; most workers in hotels have 1 Burundi Situation: UNHCR Regional Update September OCHA press releases are available at or Page 3 of 17

4 been laid off because of lack of patronage. To make matters worse, certain donors have also stopped bilateral aid to the country. The country requires stability without which development cannot be guaranteed. 2.0 THE MAENDELEO POLICY FORUM The Maendeleo Africa Policy Forum is one of UNDP s contributions to the search for workable solutions to new and persistent problems of developmental transformation and effectiveness in Africa. Through this forum, UNDP provides thought leadership, spaces and platforms where issues are vigorously interrogated, within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals. The collective thinking and recommendations of Africa s best and brightest and its friends are then put forward before decision makers at the national, regional and continental levels. The inaugural Maendeleo Policy Forum was officially opened by Gerd Trogemann, Deputy Director of the UNDP Regional Service Centre for Africa and was moderated by Ozonnia Ojielo, Director of the UNDP Africa Governance and Peacebuilding Cluster. 3.0 PANELISTS AND PARTICIPANTS The Panelists were Mr. Agostinho Zacarias, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator and UNDP Resident Representative in Burundi and Dr. Yolande Bouka, a researcher from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division and a lecturer for American University s study abroad program in Nairobi, Kenya. Well over 50 participants took part in the discussion among them development partners including UN agencies, AU agencies, bilateral and multilateral partners. Page 4 of 17

5 4.0 CURRENT SITUATION IN BURUNDI The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reported a "rapidly worsening security and human rights situation in Burundi, in its press (UNHRC) release on 23 October According to the UNHCR, Burundi has faced unrest since President Pierre Nkurunziza announced his decision to seek a third term in April. In September 2015, the UNHCR expressed concern about "an alarming upsurge in arrests, detention and killings" that have been occurring in Burundi since the beginning of September. The UNHCR stated that many bodies have been found bound with their hands behind their back in the streets of Bujumbura with marks that appear to be consistent with torture. The killing and umping of bodies has become a daily spectacle. Image copyright AFP Dr. Zacarias noted that the security situation in Burundi is worrying, with a growing pattern of politically motivated violence and targeted assassinations. Grenade attacks, arbitrary arrests and torture have become commonplace. If current trends of political intolerance and curtailment of civil liberties continue, the situation may get out of control. The economy has stalled, hardest hit being the hospitality, manufacturing and health sectors, with dire consequences on employment. The number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees fleeing to neighboring countries is on the rise. At the regional level, there is mistrust, accusations and counter-accusations between Burundi and some of the neighbouring countries, particularly on training of militias and harboring of dissidents. The European Union (EU) has imposed an asset freeze and travel ban on some high-ranking Burundi officials accused of undermining democracy or obstructing efforts towards a political 3 Press briefing notes on Burundi, Yemen, Cambodia and Congo by the Spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights: Rupert Colville - See more at: Page 5 of 17

6 solution to the current crisis through acts of violence, repression and other acts which constitute serious human rights violations. Photo credit: Red Cross 5.0 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE OF THE CONFLICT The panelists suggested the need to analyze the political trajectory Burundi has followed over the last years to better understand the dynamics at play in the country. Noticeably, there are accusations of a slow erosion of the Arusha Accord (2000) in disregard to the concerns raised by the AU and the international community, further worsening the situation. Dr Bouka in particular argued that the AU s policy of subsidiarity to Regional Economic Communities (RECs), in this case the EAC, is certainly not quite productive in pushing for a political settlement in Burundi. She suggested that since some of the member states are perceived as being interested actors in the conflict in Burundi, tasking them with resolving the same would not necessarily contribute to lasting peace and stability in the region. The panelists lamented that history seems to be repeating itself with the constant re-displacement after a relative period of stability. They proposed that the cycle of violent conflict should be brought to an end through a negotiated settlement. Perhaps approaching things differently this time Page 6 of 17

7 round, would assist in reshaping Burundi s political and development trajectories, hence the opportunity for expert dialogue, afforded by UNDP s Maendeleo Policy Forum. Dr Bouka suggested in particular to look at the capacity of civil society organizations to effectively contribute to the on-going discussions. She also argued that only a truly neutral party can play the role of broker which is very much needed in a situation where there is mistrust amongst the protagonists, which seems to be the case in Burundi. She opined that there would be no return to peace if Government did not include opposition within the national dialogue. She advised that it was also important that the cycle of impunity is addressed once and for all in the country, for peace, stability and development in Burundi. 6.0 KEY DISCUSSION POINTS The presentations by the panelists generated a lively debate. One participant drew attention to the apparent disconnect between the Africa rising narrative and the steady economic growth rate at an average of 5% on the continent on the one hand, and the increasing levels of politically-driven violence, extremism, youth unemployment on the other hand. This is the apparent paradox of development in Africa. Another participant suggested that Burundi presents a classic case of a country at crossroads; the current conflict has interrupted Burundi s recovery path from its previous conflicts and eroded the gains achieved under the Arusha Accord. The controversial elections raises doubts on the legitimacy of the current government and has given rise to the current political crisis that has subsequently impacted the economic and social spheres in Burundi and the region. The security situation is deteriorating with increasing incidences of crimes and targeted assassinations especially in Bujumbura. The economy is on the decline as evident in the tourism and manufacturing sectors. In the social sector, health services are deteriorating. A significant number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees are recorded. The prevailing situation has the potential to create tensions between Burundi and it neighbors. In Rwanda, refugees compete for limited economic and social opportunities with nationals. Attention was drawn to the fact that there was a Presidential decree for the creation of a commission for an inter-burundian national dialogue. However many noted that the composition and structure of the commission was still unclear 4 as at the end of September It was suggested by several participants that a critical missing element is the guarantee of safety, security and stability for a successful inclusive national dialogue to take place. 4 The Commission was inaugurated on 23 October The Commission is composed of 10 males and 5 females. Among these, there are 3 representatives of religious faiths, 3 representatives of political parties in Parliament, 2 Representatives from political formations outside Parliament, 2 Representatives of Civil Society, and 1 Representative of the autochthone people of Batwas, an army colonel, and a police officer, one representative from the judiciary and 1 representative from the Youth Forum. As a method of work, the Commission is expected to conduct dialogue at all levels and throughout Burundi via meetings, workshops and seminars. The decree that established the Commission encourages it to discuss all issues including the social, political, peace consolidation, security, economic development, evaluation of the Arusha Accords, the Constitution, ceasefire agreements, the Charter of National Unity. Details of the members are provided in the attached table. The Commission has been established for a period of 6 months renewable. The Commission is also mandated to present reports to the Head of State every 3 months. The final report will also be presented to the President with copies to the Parliament and Senate. The Commission will be supported by administrative, technical and finance staff coordinated by an Executive Secretary, all to be recruited by the Commission. The decree also states that the Commission can avail itself of independent experts who are experts in their field on a temporary basis. Page 7 of 17

8 Participants explored the options for brokering peace in Burundi and there was general agreement on the need for a neutral and trusted arbiter to broker peace in Burundi. Given the mistrust between the government and the opposition, an external broker might provide the strongest potential for success of a national dialogue. Participants disagreed on which could be the external broker with varying views expressed about the East African Community, the AU, COMESA and the United Nations. However it is not yet clear whether the government would accept an external arbiter/broker to mediate issues around this national dialogue, and help address tensions and challenges arising from it. In the absence of an external broker, many participants suggested that the government should, as a minimum, create space for all voices to be heard, citing the case of South Africa s national reconciliation efforts under Mandela s leadership. However, this could be a tall order for Burundi, given the level of intolerance and targeted assassinations of alternative voices, as currently witnessed. The Forum noted that the perceived mistrust among leaders in EAC, could mean that leadership role by one country in mediating the crisis might be undermined by others. There were also accusations that some countries were financing and training militias to undermine the peace process in Burundi. It was further pointed out that the mandate conferred upon the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, was to mediate agreement on an inclusive electoral process. The post-election dilemma called for a new re-defined mandate. Participants noted that the different expectations among key players in Burundi could frustrate efforts at setting a common agenda for the national dialogue. For this reason, it was critical for all to have a common understanding of what exactly an inclusive national dialogue implied and how this could guarantee quick and sustainable results. The Forum expressed the need for minimum guarantees, including agreed milestones leading to a political settlement in Burundi. They finally called for tolerance of all voices and narratives from the ruling and opposition parties, civil society organizations, women s associations, and faith-based organizations and youth groups. The Forum discussed the role of the international community in resolving the conflict and noted the weak coordination of the international community response to the Burundi crisis. It was critical that the current efforts by the international community to support the national dialogue process be better coordinated in a timely manner and lessons documented and disseminated. Some of the posers that could set the stage for an inclusive dialogue: Who should be at the negotiating table? What are the main issues to be addressed? What are the shared expectations? What will the agenda be? What format and shape should the decreed national dialogue take? Participants agreed on the need to identify the real drivers as well as the root causes of the conflict in Burundi and to propose targeted interventions to address them. Some participants indicated that this would require a mapping and an analysis of the situation to understand the cyclic nature of the crisis in Burundi. Opinion was varied on whether the Burundi crisis is a purely political issue or whether there were cultural drivers of the recurring conflict, with some participants suggesting that ethnicity and other cultural factors be part of the agenda during the national dialogue. Page 8 of 17

9 Questions were raised on the credibility and source of evidence on the conflict situation in Burundi. Attention was drawn to the 2015 IIAG 5 report that ranked Burundi 38 (out of 54) in Africa, registering a steady improvement in its overall governance score, a sharp contrast to the prevailing situation. But this contrasting scenarios between statistics and reality could well be a reflection of the political volatility and instability in African nations. The Forum highlighted the need to address the emergence of perceived illegitimate governments born of election processes that are not free, fair nor constitutional. Some participants mentioned that what qualifies as free and fair elections may be interpreted and perceived differently by the various groups of stakeholders at the national level, as well as by the international community. Some participants gave examples of countries which undertake changes to laws and regulations that hinder opposition or media from truly playing their role during the electoral process. They indicated that election Observer reports compiled after only a few weeks in a country and which in most cases endorsed elections as being free and fair, hardly captured the well-calculated manipulation of electoral laws, institutions and processes in favor of the incumbent government. Under such circumstances, the political playing field was perceived as uneven by opposition parties and their supporters. Some participants also mentioned the lack of maturity, internal democracy and tolerance within opposition parties. Participants concluded that what happens between elections matters because it impacts election outcomes, with potential to create conflict and crisis. Participants noted that national constitutions guaranteed the sovereignty of states, including Presidential terms and tenures. Currently, no regional entity, including the AU, had the authority nor policy to influence Presidential terms and tenures in Africa. Participants highlighted the fact that the violent political crisis are often triggered by the ruling political parties directing constitutional review to suit their own agenda and sole interest, to the exclusion of others. Considering the recurrent political violence and conflicts in Africa, some participants proposed that it could be an opportune moment for experts to re-think leadership and governance models for sustained peace and development in Africa. The cyclical nature of conflict in Burundi could suggest that the current models of governance may not be suitable for sustaining peace and development in Africa. Revised narratives and models of democracy and governance could be nuanced on Africa s unique cultures, history, opportunities and capacities. Participants discussed the possible scenarios likely to play out in Burundi, based on the current trends. The best-case scenario would be an inclusive national dialogue process that halts the violence and leads to a quick political settlement for restoration of peace and inclusive development. The worst-case scenario would be protracted negotiations and/or political impasse that would cause the International community and other stakeholders to disengage, leading to an escalation of the crisis in Burundi. 7.0 SUMMARY OF KEY RECOMMENDATIONS Possible solutions to Burundi s crisis should take into account the plurality of the Burundi society; ethnic groups, political parties, civil society and regional institutions. Participants at the Maendeleo Policy Forum supported the view that a national dialogue will be necessary to , IIAG report, Mo Ibrahim Foundation. Page 9 of 17

10 address the ongoing crisis. Such a national dialogue should be all-inclusive, with clear mandate and expected outcomes, able to review current situation, propose far reaching recommendations and follow through with implementation. Taking into consideration that the worst-case scenario would be too grave to contemplate, the participants concluded that there is need for a quick political settlement and restoration of peace in Burundi. They acknowledged that the Government is keen on a locally-led Burundian national dialogue process to solve the political crisis, as decreed in September Burundi should therefore be supported by all, in its efforts to seek long-lasting peace and a return to normalcy. The Forum made the following recommendations: 7.1. Establish and institutionalize an all-inclusive National Dialogue Process Participants acknowledged that the envisaged national dialogue is an opportunity to solve the current political crisis, but its success will largely depend on respect for, and observance of commonly-agreed conditions. They encouraged government, political parties and civil society organizations to fully commit to the process and also requested that all Burundians take responsibility for a meaningful national dialogue in pursuit of peace co-existence. The forum strongly supported the call for an independent, empowered and representative preparatory commission which will organize the national dialogue. The commission must consult stakeholders in setting up the national dialogue agenda and in establishing the rules of engagement. They further recommended that the Arusha Accord be included as part of the building blocks for the dialogue. Participants noted that a nationally-led process similar to South Africa s Truth and Reconciliation Commission might have wider local acceptance and ownership, thus increasing the chances for sustained peace and development. The Forum also recommended that the national dialogue process should attempt to get to the root causes of the recurring conflict, including interrogating the cultural drivers of conflict in Burundi. These may include, but are not limited to ethnic divisions, culture, religious orientation, economic and social disparities, gender, as well as cross-border power relations Address the security situation in the country The violence and insecurity in parts of the country continue to degenerate. Burundi is on the brink of another civil war. This trend needs to be urgently arrested. The various armed groups allied to the government and the opposition parties need to lay down their arms to allow the national dialogue to take place. Part of the discussions during the dialogue should include disarming the various groups and enabling peace, security and stability in all parts of the country. Without stopping the violence, it will be difficult to generate public confidence to participate in the dialogue. This is the time for respected critical voices in Burundi to stand up and encourage the various groups to stop the violence and work towards a consensus solution to the crisis Appoint an independent broker to facilitate the National Dialogue Considering the low level of trust amongst the protagonists, the Forum recommended the appointment of an external broker for Burundi s peace process. Participants indicated that a trusted broker might help create a conducive environment for a genuine and owned dialogue, Page 10 of 17

11 and mainly help ease the tensions that exist between the different parties. The broker would gradually build trust, somewhat offer security guarantees and provide incentives that will encourage all parties to jointly find sustainable solutions to save their country and people from any further bloody conflict. The Forum emphasized that the role of a broker is not to impose any framework or solutions but rather: Facilitate communication amongst all parties regarding their respective concerns and potential divisions among them, the root causes of recurrent conflicts and above all, affirm their commitment in seeking lasting solutions to the conflict. Help the parties learn from their past experiences such as the national dialogue that led to the Arusha Accord. Work with the parties to identify and build on shared values to reach a common understanding and acceptance of each other as full members of the Burundi nation. Assist them build or renew trust amongst each other, build consensus and reach agreements on Burundi s immediate and future peace and inclusive development pathway Ensure women play a key role in the resolution of the crisis The participants were of the view that the involvement of women in the national dialogue and peace making process could make a difference. Girls and women are mostly abused during conflicts and therefore there is a need to bring solutions to protect their rights and ensure their security. Participants indicated that women could also be players in peace making and that in various experiences have shown that women have been actively engaged in stopping wars in including in African countries. The Forum supported the idea that women representatives from civil society, political parties, women s groups and other constituencies participate equally as members of the commission in charge of the national dialogue, including as participants to the national dialogue. Participants suggested that the quality of the broker could include the following: Be a national or international person; Be neutral and potentially accepted by all parties; Have ability and patience to listen to all parties; Have the ability to build consensus among the Burundians to establish the foundation for a sustainable peace and inclusive development Promote diversity and inclusiveness in all processes of governance The forum invites Burundi to consider the issue of aligning ethnicity to competencies particularly in public appointments, while addressing the issue of ethnicity as a driver of conflicts. The Forum reiterated that hammering clannism will continue to destabilize the country and has not been proven to be the solution from the Burundi history. Burundi might learn from countries which have gone through the same crisis and focus on improving competencies of all Burundians as citizens of one Nation that are able to build an egalitarian and prosperous Nation. Page 11 of 17

12 7.6. Ensure a coordinated and collective response from the international community The Forum recommended that the international community continue to support the peace process in Burundi through a coordinated approach and a collective response. The AU, EAC and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) should play their respective and complementary role within this framework. The international community contribution to the mediation or the peace building process will greatly assist the country pull back from the brink The UN to sustain its support Within the UN family, the UNDP has the mandate to coordinate recovery processes for countries emerging from crisis. The UNDP should therefore remain engaged in the process of seeking lasting peace and inclusive and sustainable development in Burundi. Part of this process includes rebuilding trust, social cohesion among the people of Burundi and supporting the strengthening of the social contract between the people and the government. UN agencies will continue to provide technical support as needed, including through the UN peacebuilding commission. 7.8 Protect the rights of refugees and IDPs The Forum recommended that the international community steps up its efforts to protect the rights of refugees and IDPs. Participants recommended that the opportunities that exist within the region be explored in dealing with refugees to avoid any further conflict that might destabilize the whole sub region. 7.9.Implement national-level actions including, but not limited to the following: Building capacity of political parties and other institutions of governance There is a need to build the capacity of political parties to play their role in nation building and democratic governance. This will require sustained investment in building strong institutions and capacities that are resilient and can survive regime change Inclusive constitutional processes The Forum recognized that each nation and its people are fully within their constitutional rights to draft, review and implement its constitution. While respecting this state sovereignty, the AU and the international community should support inclusive and participatory processes in making or reviewing national constitutions. Participants recommend that national constitutional making and review processes should be devoid of any forms of manipulation and threats to alternative voices. Popular ownership of the process and outcomes of constitutionmaking, significantly increases the chances of peaceful co-existence including during periods of transition Investing in Early warning systems to avert potential conflicts and sustaining early action The importance of investing in early warning systems to avert likely conflicts cannot be overemphasized. This needs to be coupled with early response. Many participants alluded to the fact that there was substantive early warning signs on Burundi but the response was at times Page 12 of 17

13 tepid or muted. There is need to identify and invest in the missed opportunities that can forestall election-related crisis Addressing the gender dimensions of the conflict Outstanding issues such as security and rule of law as well as gender and security should be addressed. Evidence suggests that women and children are the most vulnerable in conflict situations. The role of women peacebuilding should also be promoted Promoting a culture of tolerance should be nurtured nationally. Ethnicity should be viewed positively, recognizing the potential of unity in diversity. State-building and nationbuilding need to go together. All too often, international development actors focus on statebuilding, ignoring the software of sustainable national development, which is nation building Regular data collection and analysis of the cyclic nature of the crisis will ensure evidence-based and practical interventions to the conflict. 8.0 CONCLUSION The forum concluded that opportunities for dialogue can only be found within a re-defined and refocused space and agenda, which provides security guarantees for all participants and enables all voices to be heard, with assistance of a neutral and trusted arbiter who can promote consensus building and agreement among the parties. It should be clear what the various stakeholders national and external-, including the AU, UN and the rest of the international community are offering towards a peaceful settlement in Burundi. The recommendations above would be submitted by the UN Resident Coordinator to the national authorities as part of the contributions to an effective and successful national process in Burundi. Page 13 of 17

14 Annex 1: Short Bio of Panelists Agostinho Zacarias, is the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General to Burundi as well as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resident Representative, UN Resident Coordinator and UN Humanitarian Coordination in Burundi. Mr. Zacarias brings to the position several years of professional and academic experience in the field of peace, security and development. Prior to this appointment, he served for more than four years as United Nations Resident Coordinator and Resident Representative of UNDP South Africa. From 2005 to 2009, Mr. Zacarias served as United Nations Resident Coordinator and Resident Representative of UNDP Zimbabwe. Prior to that, he served in various positions for the United Nations in Angola and New York. Earlier in his career, Mr. Zacarias taught international relations at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa, Princeton University in the United States and the London School of Economics. He also taught political science at the Higher Institute of International Relations in Mozambique. Mr. Zacarias holds a PhD in international relations from the London School of Economics. Dr. Yolande Bouka is a researcher for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division and a lecturer for American University s study abroad program in Nairobi, Kenya. She completed a doctoral degree in International Relations from American University in Washington DC on transitional justice in Rwanda. At ISS, Dr. Bouka provides political and security analysis on the Great Lakes Region and East Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya) and researches the role of women in military institutions and non-state armed groups. She balances her policy work with various academic projects on micro dynamics of violence, state society relations, and gender and security in Africa. Dr. Bouka s work includes a number of peer-reviewed publications, policy reports, and news contributions. Page 14 of 17

15 Annex 2: Concept note Maendeleo Policy Forum: Hosted by UNDP Africa Topic: Pulling Back from the Brink: Options for National Dialogue in Burundi Context Burundi runs a presidential system based on multiparty democracy. The legislative arm is a bicameral assembly, consisting of the Transitional National Assembly and the Transitional Senate. In April 2015 protests broke out after the ruling party announced that President Pierre Nkurunziza would seek a third term in office. The aspiration of the President to seek a third term in office was sanctioned by the country s constitutional court. There are differing interpretations of the provisions of the Arusha Accord of 2000 which had prescribed a maximum of two terms for any elected president. The opposition claimed that under the terms of the Arusha Accord, the President could not run for a third term in office. The President s claim of legal right to a third term has been met with stiff opposition and violent resistance. Some see the current crisis as disregarding of the country s constitution and the spirit of the 2000 Arusha Accord, a power-sharing agreement which sought to steer the Burundian society from recurrent socio-political convulsions to a stable society. In order to arrest the situation and stem the spiralling violence before the election, the African Union (AU), United Nations (UN), and the East African Community s (EAC) had called on the President to shelve his ambition for a third term. Nonetheless, the elections were held on 29 June 2015 which returned President Nkurunziza to office. While the current conflict has been framed as a political crisis, it is pertinent to pay attention to the ever-present intergroup conflict which seem to have challenged political solutions, administrative formulae, and even legal response. The persistent problem in the Burundian society is its ethnic duopoly, and how to craft systems, mechanisms, and processes for effective governance, pacific co-existence, and social cohesion. Like most ethnic duopolies, if not all, no other groups exist to attenuate conflict between the two major groups in the country. The propensity for escalated violent clashes is still very high due to the presence of armed groups loyal to both the government and the opposition. Politically-motivated assassinations which are still rampant has to stop no matter who is responsible - government or the opposition. For the benefit of all Burundians and her neighbours, the time to bring the crisis to an end is now. The crisis has so far resulted in the displacement of more than 70,000 people, many of them children since the political violence and civil unrest broke out in the capital Bujumbura in April. Some 46,000 Burundians found refuge in Tanzania and 26,000 in Rwanda. The United Nations in June 2015 released some US$15 million from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to support life-saving relief work for thousands of Burundian refugees in Rwanda and Tanzania. 6 The economic effects of this political instability can be found in almost all sectors of the economy since 25 April The Burundi Revenue Authority states that 10b and 16b Burundian Francs (BIF) were lost in total revenues in April and May of this year alone because of the crisis. Business activities have been paralyzed as shops close early because of insecurity, and the banking sector continues to suffer because of large cash withdrawals by those fleeing 6 CERF Burundi Press Release 1 June 2015 Page 15 of 17

16 the crisis. The worst hit is the hospitality industry; most workers in hotels have been laid off because of lack of patronage. And to make matters worse, certain donors have also stopped bilateral aid to the country. The country requires stability without which development cannot be guaranteed. The current crisis represents the most significant threat to Arusha Accord. It also raises the question whether the accommodations made in Arusha can help address today s needs or whether the people need a new national consensus through a national dialogue. A forum for national dialogue has thus become imperative to mobilize the nation towards solving the current problem and enthroning a culture of inclusive consultation. Besides, the new government needs broader acceptance and legitimacy by Burundians to be able to steer the country through the crisis. In addition, the economic situation is dire and only a national mobilization can lead to overcoming it. The government also needs the confidence of other African countries and the international community to help the country overcome the economic crisis. No average Burundian citizen would want to see a return to the pre-arusha Accord days. The national dialogue will bring together all stakeholders to assist in finding a lasting solution. Such solution will be owned and implemented by all to ensure stability in the polity. The Maendeleo Policy Forum The Maendeleo Policy Forum has been launched to provide space for African leaders, international mediators and negotiators, researchers, policy makers, development practitioners and writers on African issues, to dialogue and debate on critical issues of development in Africa. Objectives: The Maendeleo Policy Forum on the topic: Pulling Back from the Brink: Options for National Dialogue in Burundi provides space to reflect on: 1. The historical causes of the Burundian conflict and how they affect the present-day political crisis 2. Institutional or structural barriers to finding a workable solution to the crisis 3. The role of the Burundian society in finding a national or a home-grown solution to the conflict 4. The role of the international community, including the East African Community (EAC), the Great Lakes region as a whole, the African Union and the United Nations in finding a workable solution 5. The role of civil society in identifying solutions and sustaining the outcomes of any national dialogue 6. Learn lessons from comparable perspectives 7. Propose recommendations for facilitating an inclusive dialogue process in Burundi. Outcome The Maendeleo Policy Forum on Burundi is expected to produce clear and implementable recommendations in the form of a summary report which will be submitted to the Government of Burundi, the United Nations, the African Union, the East African Community and other key stakeholders. Page 16 of 17

17 Annex 3: Maendeleo Policy Forum Forum Politique Maendeleo Pulling Back from the Brink: Options for National Dialogue in Burundi Venue: UNDP Regional Service Centre for Africa Date: 8 October 2015 Time Activity Responsible Party Registration Welcome remarks/ Introduction of the Maendeleo Policy Dialogues series Gerd Trogemann Deputy Director UNDP Regional Service Centre for Africa Intervention by Panelists Moderator - Ozonnia Ojielo Q & A and contributions from participants 1. Director, Governance and Peacebuilding Cluster 2. Dr. Agostinho Zacarias, DSRSG/RR/RC Burundi 3. Dr. Yolande Bouka, Researcher, ISS Summary of the session/ way forward Moderator End of session/lunch Page 17 of 17