What s Your Political DNA: METHODOLOGY & TOPLINES

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Hugo Rice
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1 What s Your Political DNA: METHODOLOGY & TOPLINES How the segmentation analysis was conducted: To analyze how opinions and characteristics segment respondents, each of the questions being asked was classified as pertaining to Ideology, Lifestyle, or Engagement based on its content, and that matters involving Faith intersected all three. The relationship between the responses within each of these three dimensions was separately analyzed using a Bayesian item response model to identify the relationship between each question and the general pattern of responses within each category, and to also estimate how individuals opinions and characteristics compare to one another. Using these individual-level scores as well as selfreported partisanship, ten groups were chosen to characterize the observed variation. The plausibility of the ten groups we identify was determined by evaluating the ability of the segmentation to explain differences in presidential approval and other political opinions not included in the classification procedure. How the polls were conducted: The first NBC What s Your Political DNA survey was conducted online by SurveyMonkey June 3-5, 2015 among a national sample of 2,153 adults aged 18 and over, including an oversample of 260 U.S. adults with an education level of high school or less. Respondents for this nonprobability survey were selected from among those who have volunteered to participate in the SurveyMonkey Audience panel. SurveyMonkey panelists are ed no more than once every three days, and on average panelists receive one every two weeks. SurveyMonkey also imposes a daily limit on the number of surveys a panelist can take. The June SurveyMonkey Audience project was run using a balanced sample. The process of sample balancing starts by setting targets for desired numbers of completed responses among certain groups (in this case: by gender, age, and race groupings). After that, a specified number of potential respondents are allocated to the project based on expected completion rates. Panelists are either linked directly to the survey from an invitation, or routed to the survey after agreeing to take an additional survey after completing a prior one. Once the survey is put into the field, the system calculates actual completion rates by group, and uses that information to re-adjust the flow of new panelists to the survey. Data for the June survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and division using the Census Bureau s American Community Survey, marital status using the Current Population Survey, along with data from the Kaiser Health Tracking Poll on evangelicalism and the Pew Research Center on religious attendance to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be 1

2 subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. The second NBC What s Your Political DNA survey was conducted online by SurveyMonkey July 20-26, 2015 among a national sample of 8,228 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 10,000 independent samples and calculate the standard deviation of the weighted average using those samples, producing an error estimate. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (such as gender): Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Unweighted N Plus or minus June 3-5 Percentage points July Percentage points Total sample 2, , , , , , White 1, , Black Hispanic Other

3 POLITICAL DNA TOPLINES 1. In general, do you think things in this country are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Net Strongly approve Somewhat approve Net Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove DK/ NA [ROTATE 3 & 4] 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Net Strongly approve Somewhat approve Net Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove DK/NA [RANDOMIZE 5-9] 4. For each of the following pairs of statements, please say which comes closer to your opinion, even if neither is exactly right. Which comes closer to your opinion? [ROTATE RESPONSES] In today's economy, everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the long run. In today's economy, it's mainly just a few people at the top who have a chance to get ahead. DK/NA Which comes closer to your opinion? [ROTATE RESPONSES] 3

4 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest. Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. DK/NA Which comes closer to your opinion? [ROTATE RESPONSES] Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care. DK/NA Which comes closer to your opinion? [ROTATE RESPONSES] Racial discrimination is the main reason why many black people can t get ahead today. Blacks who can t get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition. DK/NA Which comes closer to your opinion? [ROTATE RESPONSES] The government should promote traditional values in our society. The government should not favor any particular set of values. DK/NA Do you think the United States should or should not take the leading role among all other countries in the world when trying to solve international conflicts? Yes, the U.S. should take the leading role No, the U.S. should not take the leading role DK/NA And from what you have heard or read, do you believe increases in the Earth's temperature over the last century are due more to the effects of pollution from human activities or natural changes in the environment that are not due to human activities? Human activities Natural causes DK/NA 4

5 Which is more important to you? [ROTATE RESPONSES] Protecting American industries and jobs 66 by limiting imports from other countries. Allowing free trade so you can buy products 31 at low prices no matter what country they come from. DK/NA Here s a list of activities some people might do. Please select all of the activities you have done in the past 12 months: [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] Attended an organized protest of any kind 9 Attended a meeting on county, town or local school issues 27 Worked with other community members to solve a local problem 22 Been part of a group that tries to influence government action, besides a 23 political party, such as an environmental or religious group Volunteered in your community, such as at a soup kitchen or school 45 None of the above 36 DK/NA Do you belong to or work with any of the following local groups or organizations, or not? Please select ALL that apply A sports league A youth group 8 11 A church, synagogue, mosque, or temple A charity or social organization A community or neighborhood association that focuses on local issues None of the above Other 6 4 DK/NA Here s a list of activities some people might do. Please select all of the activities you have done in the past three years: [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES]

6 Attended a political rally, speech, or campaign event Worked or volunteered for a political candidate Displayed a bumper sticker, button, or campaign sign for a political candidate, party, or issue Posted or tweeted information about a political cause or candidate online None of the above DK/NA Do you personally see the Confederate flag more as a symbol of Southern pride, or more as a symbol of racism? Symbol of Southern pride Symbol of racism DK/NA Do you display the American flag at your home, in your office, or on your car, or not? Yes, I display the American flag No, I don t display the American flag DK/NA Do you or does anyone in your household own a gun, or not? Yes, I own a gun Yes, someone else owns a gun No, no one in my household owns a gun DK/NA Imagine that you could live anywhere in the United States that you wanted to, where would you prefer to live the most? [ROTATE LIST] A large city A small city A suburban area A small town A rural area DK/NA Still imagining that you could live wherever you wanted to, which of the following would be the most important to you when deciding where to live? You can select up to THREE. [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] Close to outdoor activities, like hiking and fishing Being near art museums and theaters

7 Mix of people from different racial and ethnic backgrounds Being able to walk to most of the places you wish to go Many people who share your religious beliefs Dependable and affordable public transportation Large discount or warehouse stores 9 10 Mix of housing types for people of all economic backgrounds Properties with a lot of space and privacy Quality schools Other 8 7 DK/NA When you are at work, which of the following best describes what you do? Would you say you spend most of your time: Doing heavy labor or physically demanding Currently unemployed or not looking Walking or Sitting Standing doing light activity work for work DK/ NA

8 [SPLIT SAMPLE Q 21 & Q 22] 21. When it comes to professional sports, which one sport do you watch or follow the most, or don t you follow sports? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] (n: 1052) Football 34 Baseball 11 Basketball 7 Golf 1 NASCAR 3 Soccer 5 Cycling 1 Hockey 4 Tennis 1 Don t follow sports 28 Other What type of vehicle do you currently drive most often, or do you typically not drive? (n: 1054) Sedan 26 Pickup Truck 10 Small SUV (Sport Utility Vehicle) 20 Large SUV (Sport Utility Vehicle) 6 Compact car 15 Mini-van 6 Sports car 5 Motorcycle 1 Take public transportation/don t drive 9 None of the above 3 8

9 [SPLIT SAMPLE Q 23 & Q 24] 23. Among the following, which is your favorite holiday? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] (n: 1081) Hanukkah 1 Christmas 46 Thanksgiving 19 Valentine s Day 1 Fourth of July 9 Halloween 10 New Year s Eve 3 Easter 5 Passover 1 None of these Among the following places, where do you generally get your fresh fruits and vegetables? [ROTATE 1-6] (n: 1082) Grocery Store 65 Superstore, like Wal-Mart or Target 14 Farmers market or Community- 10 Supported Agriculture (CSA) Family member s backyard garden or 4 farm Nearby roadside farm stand 4 Fresh fruits and vegetables are difficult 1 to find in my area None of the above In general, which of the following do you think best describes the current Supreme Court? [ROTATE 1 & 2] It is too liberal It is too conservative It is just about right DK/NA In general, how much do you think the Supreme Court justices are influenced by their own political views when making their decisions? 9

10 Very influenced Somewhat influenced A little influenced Not at all influenced DK/NA Overall, in attempting to fight terrorism, do you think the U.S. government s surveillance program has: [ROTATE RESPONSES 1 & 2] Gone too far in infringing on 38 people s privacy Been too restrained when it comes to 24 fighting terrorism favor Been relatively balanced between 35 privacy concerns and fighting terrorism DK/NA How concerned are you, personally, that the government might be collecting your own phone call records or monitoring your Internet activity--are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned? Very Somewhat A little Not at all Concerned concerned concerned concerned DK/NA Which of the following do you trust MORE to keep records of your phone calls and Internet activity private and secure? Businesses like cellular 21 telephone companies and internet providers Government agencies 11 Both equally 14 Neither 53 DK/NA How much stigma or negative social judgment, if any, do you think a transgender person faces in your community? A lot Some Only a little None at all DK/NA 10

11 Looking ahead 10 years from now, do you think the level of social acceptance of transgender people in this country will be a lot more accepting, a little more accepting, no different, a little less accepting, or a lot less accepting? A lot more accepting A little more accepting No different A little less accepting A lot less accepting DK/NA Caitlyn Jenner, the transgender Olympic champion formerly known as Bruce Jenner, recently revealed her transition on the cover of Vanity Fair. Do you think Caitlyn Jenners public transition will help society become more accepting of transgender people? Will help a lot Will help a little Will not help DK/NA Demographics 33. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Republican Democrat Independent No answer [ASK IF INDEPENDENT or SKIP] As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? Republican Democrat Neither N/A In general, how would you describe your views on most political issues? Are you: Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very liberal DK/NA

12 36. In general, do you support the Tea Party movement s ideas, or not? Yes No DK/NA ** **Half sample 37. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the election district where you now live, or aren t you? Yes, registered to vote No, not registered to vote Don t know* N/A Do you or someone in your household belong to a labor union, or not? Yes, I am in a labor union 8 Yes, another household 9 member is in a labor union Yes, myself and at least one 2 other family member are in a labor union No 80 DK/NA 1 12

13 39. Do you have any children, or not? Yes, one or more children Yes, all 18 under 18 years of age or over No children DK/NA Are you gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender, or not? Yes No DK/NA Are you now married, widowed, divorced, separated, or have you never been married? Never Married Widowed Divorced Separated married DK/NA Some people think of themselves as evangelical or born again Christians. Do you ever think of yourself in either of these ways? Yes No DK/NA What is your current religion, if any? Protestant/ Methodist/ Lutheran/ Baptist/ Other Christian 42 Roman Catholic 19 Mormon 2 Greek or Russian Orthodox 1 Jewish 2 Muslim 1 Buddhist 1 Hindu 1 Atheist or agnostic 9 Nothing in particular 13 Something else (specify) 9 DK/NA How often do you attend religious or worship services, not including weddings and funerals? 13

14 More than once a week Once a week One or twice a month A few times a year Seldom Never DK/NA How old are you? 65 and older DK/NA What was the last grade of school you completed? Did not complete high school High school or G.E.D Associate degree College Post graduate degree DK/NA Are you: White 65 Black 12 Hispanic 15 Asian 4 Other 4 DK/NA My total family income last year was: Under $15,000 Between $15,000- $29,999 Between $30,000- $49,999 Between $50,000- $74,999 Between $75,000- $99,999 Between $100,000- $150,000 Over $150,000 DK/ NA Are you: Male Female

1. In general, do you think things in this country are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Strongly approve. Somewhat approve Net

TOPLINES Questions 1A and 1B held for future releases. 1. In general, do you think things in this country are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NA