Outlook for migration and remittances

Transcription

1 Outlook for migration and remittances Dilip Ratha World Bank November 27, 2012 Development Prospects Group (DECPG) BBL Washington, D.C.

2 Outline Cyclical trends for Long-term structural trends Global knowledge partnership - KNOMAD

3 Main messages Remittances to developing countries $406 bn in 2012 ; $534 bn by 2015 Remittance costs averaging 7.5% in top 20 remittance corridors; 9% worldwide; US Remittance Transfer Rule will increase transparency for consumers Migration flows more responsive to economic cycle in host countries

4 Remittances to developing countries to reach $406 bn in $ billions Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank

5 Top remittance recipients in $ million, 2012e as % of GDP,

6 Remittance flows to developing countries $ billion e 2013f 2014f 2015f Developing countries East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle-East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Growth rate Developing countries 8.0% 11.7% 6.5% 7.9% 10.1% 10.7% East Asia and Pacific 10.9% 12.3% 7.2% 8.2% 10.5% 11.3% Europe and Central Asia 0.0% 13.1% -0.9% 9.6% 14.8% 13.1% Latin America and Caribbean 0.9% 7.3% 2.9% 7.6% 10.3% 11.0% Middle-East and North Africa 20.8% 6.3% 8.4% 5.5% 6.2% 6.8% South Asia 9.5% 17.7% 12.5% 8.7% 9.9% 11.0% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.9% 6.8% 0.0% 6.2% 8.7% 9.2%

7 Europe and Central Asia: Remittance Trends (y-o-y growth rate, %) 40% Percent Europe and Central Asia 20% 0% -20% Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

8 Remittance outflows from Western Europe has decelerated 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Growth in remittance outflows from Western European countries has been weak Italy UK Spain 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Growth in remittance inflows to Eastern European countries has also been weak Bosnia & Herz. Romania Poland

9 Latin America and Caribbean: Remittance Trends (y-o-y growth rate, %) 40% Percent Latin America and Caribbean 20% 0% -20% Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

10 Latin America and Caribbean: Remittance Trends (y-o-y growth rate, %) y-o-y growth rate of 3-month m.a. % Mexico El Salvador Honduras Guatemala Dominican Rep. Nicaragua Jamaica

11 In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives* millions millions Natives (left scale) Migrants (right scale) Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul *3-month moving averages Source: Current Population Survey

12 However, unskilled migrants have been affected more than skilled and naturalized foreign-born workers in the US 40% Change in monthly average employment levels between Jan-Sep 2009 and Jan-Sep % 0% Construction Accomodation/food services Trade Professional/tech. services Total Native-born Foreign born, non-citizens Foreign born, naturalized -20% Source: US Current Population Survey

13 Migrant employment is more responsive to Percentage points economic cycle than that of natives Change in employment (Q to Q4-2011) German y Australia USA Belgium Canada UK France Italy Spain Greece Migrants Natives Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2012

14 Sub-Saharan Africa: Remittance Trends (y-o-y growth rate, %) 40% Percent Sub-Saharan Africa 20% 0% -20% Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

15 Middle-East and North America: Remittance Trends (y-o-y growth rate, %) 40% 20% Percent Middle-East and North Africa 0% -20% Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

16 Remittance growth declines in 2012 in most region 40% 20% Percent East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle-East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 0% -20% Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

17 Russia: Oil prices continue to provide a cushion for remittances to Asia $ billions 8.0 $/barrel Crude oil price (right scale) Remittance outflows from Russia (left scale) Source: IMF Balance of Payments and Development Prospects Group, World Bank.

18 Exchange rate depreciation has created additional incentives to send remittances Local currency/us$ (July 2010 = 100 ) Bangladeshi Taka Indian Rupee Mexican Peso

19 Remittance costs remain persistently high 10% Cost of sending $200 in top 20 largest bilateral remittance corridors 8% Simple Average 6% Weighted average 4% 2% 0% 2008 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database (November 2012)

20 Remittance costs remain persistently high 17% Cost of sending $200 from selected remittance source countries, Q % 14% 12% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 2% Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database (November 2012)

21 US Remittance Rule likely to increase transparency and competition The US Remittance rule may increase remittance cost in the short-run Improves transparency, and may spur competition in the industry

22 Mobile remittances promises to reduce costs, but growth is stymied by unclear regulation Lack of clarity and mandate of regulation appears to be a constraint to growth AML/CFT and the know-your-client requirements raise regulatory burden and costs

23 1. Monitoring, analysis, projection - Size, corridors, channels - Counter-cyclicality - Effects on poverty, education, health, investmen - Policy (costs, competition, exchange controls) 3. Financial access - Deposit and saving products - Loan products (mortgages, consumer loans, microfinance) - Credit history for MFI clients - Insurance products International Remittances Agenda 4. Capital market access - Private banks and corporations (securitization) - Governments (diaspora bonds) - Sovereign credit rating 2. Retail payment systems - Payment platforms/instruments - Regulation (clearing and settlement, capital adequacy, exchange controls, disclosure, crossborder arbitration) - Anti-money laundering/countering financing of terrorism (AML/CFT)

24 1. Monitoring, analysis, projection - IMF BPM6 3. Financial access International Remittances Agenda 4. Capital market access - Governments (diaspora bonds) 2. Retail payment systems - Costs - AML/CFT

25 Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)

26 Objectives An open, multidisciplinary platform Generate a menu of policy choices based on evidence and peer-review Pilot policy operations and capacity building efforts

27 Data on migration and remittance flows Rural-urban migration and urbanization Migration and security Skilled labor migration Unskilled labor migration Climate change and migration MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT Integration issues in host communities Mobilizing other diaspora resources Demographi c changes and migration Migrant rights and social aspects Policy and institutional coherence Remittances

28 Outputs of Migration Knowledge Platform Analytical research products Operational toolkits, fact books Web-based anthologies, archives, blogs Best practices: A menu of policy choices for the policy makers Few pilot projects and capacity building activities

29 International Logo Competition

30 KNOMAD Activities Global Experts Meetings: Geneva Dec 3-4, 2012 Washington Dec 10-11, 2012 Workshop on BPM 6 compilation of remittance data Migration and Remittances Factbook 2013