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1 WIPPO Snap Poll I: How the U.S. Public and U.S.-based IR Scholars Compare on Iran Nuclear Agreement, Use of Force, Migration Crisis, Greece, Trade Agreements, and FIFA July 8, 2015 Wisconsin International Policy and (WIPPO) Project University of Wisconsin Madison and Teaching, Research & International Policy (TRIP) Project Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations (ITPIR) College of William and Mary Principal Investigators: Acknowledgements: Media Contact: Data Contacts: Methodology: Daniel Maliniak, College of Susan Peterson, College of Jon Pevehouse, University of Wisconsin Madison Ryan Powers, University of Wisconsin Madison Michael J. Tierney, College of We would like to thank Sooyeon Kim, David Singer, and Eric Voeten for their valuable input on survey questions and would like to thank the Carnegie Corporation of New York for supporting this research. Sasha Maliniak Phone: (757) Elizabeth Martin, Katie Paulson-Smith Phone: (757) For the public opinion poll, we surveyed 1,000 Americans from an existing panel provided by Qualtrics. The poll was open June 9, 2014 to June 18, The margin of error is approximately +/-3.1 percent. Table 1 shows that this sample is representative of the U.S. public in terms of age, gender, and income. We report results of three polls of scholars. For these polls, we attempted to contact all international relations (IR) scholars in the United States. We define IR scholars as individuals who are employed at a college or university in a political science department or professional school and who teach or conduct research on issues that cross international borders. WIPPO Snap Poll I 1

2 The 2014 TRIP Faculty Survey was open September 9 to November 3, Of the 4,187 scholars across the United States who we contacted, 1,615 responded. The resulting response rate is approximately 38 percent, and the margin of error for the poll is +/-1.91 percent. For additional details see the full report here. TRIP Snap Poll 5 was open April 6 to April 7, Of the 4,169 scholars across the United States who we contacted, 921 responded. The resulting response rate is approximately 22.1 percent, and the margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.85% percent. For additional details see the full report here. TRIP Snap Poll 6 was open May 31 to June 2, Of the 4,094 scholars across the United States who we contacted, 655 responded. The resulting response rate is approximately 16.0 percent, and the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.51% percent. For additional details see the full report here. WIPPO Snap Poll I 2

3 Introduction We are pleased to share the results of the first Wisconsin International Policy and (WIPPO) Snap Poll of the U.S. Public. WIPPO Snap Polls of the public are conducted in parallel with TRIP Snap Polls of IR scholars in order to understand how expert opinion on international politics and policy issues differs from that of the public. With support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, we field TRIP/WIPPO Snap Polls several times a year. Our polls provide real-time data in the wake of significant policy proposals, during international crises, and on emerging foreign policy debates. In this series of polls, we asked about support for military use of force, ongoing negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, Greece and the future of the Euro, international migration, FIFA, and free-trade agreements. A related essay identifying some interesting patterns and raising new questions is published on ForeignPolicy.com. For a direct link to that article click here. How WIPPO/TRIP Snap Polls work WIPPO Snap Polls of the U.S. public are fielded using a standing internet-based panel from Qualtrics. In this first public opinion poll, we surveyed 1,000 Americans. The sample is representative of the U.S. public in terms of gender, age, and income. TRIP polls survey all IR scholars in the United States. To be included in our sample, individuals must be employed at a U.S. college or university in a political science department or professional school and teach or conduct research on issues that cross international borders. The number of responses to each question is listed below. See each report for a detailed breakdown of the demographic characteristics of respondents compared to the population of IR scholars identified by the TRIP project. WIPPO Snap Poll I 3

4 Survey Results Question 1: Would you support or oppose taking military action if it were certain Iran was close to producing a nuclear weapon? Response Option Strongly support military action % % Support military action % Neither support nor oppose military action % % Oppose military action % Strongly oppose military action % % 5 Would you support or oppose taking military action if it were certain Iran was close to producing a nuclear weapon? 38.6% % 31.9% 23.5% 21.8% % 17.2% 1 5.3% 9.4% 4. Strongly support military action Source: Teaching, Research and Support military action Neither support nor oppose military action Oppose military action Strongly oppose military action WIPPO Snap Poll I 4

5 Question 2: Would you support or oppose taking military action to prevent genocide of ethnic Rohingya in Myanmar (Burma)? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % Would you support or oppose taking military action to prevent genocide of ethnic Rohingya in Myanmar (Burma)? 34.6% % 28.4% 26.2% 26.3% % 9.4% % Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly Oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 5

6 Question 3: Would you support or oppose taking military action to enforce a comprehensive peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % Would you support or oppose taking military action to enforce a comprehensive peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians? 33.8% % 28.3% 27.1% % 18.3% 13.4% 13.6% % 6.3% Strongly Support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly Oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 6

7 Question 4: Would you support or oppose taking military action if Sudan continues to perpetrate human rights abuses within its borders? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % Would you support or oppose taking military action if Sudan continues to perpetrate human rights abuses within its borders? 35.7% 35.8% % 22.9% 24.4% % 13.4% % 3.6% 4.7% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly Oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 7

8 Question 5: Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the Iraqi government's effort to defeat ISIS forces? Response Option Count Percent Strongly support % Support Neither support nor oppose % Oppose % Strongly Oppose % Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the Iraqi government's effort to defeat ISIS forces? % 25.7% % 3.4% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly Oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 8

9 Question 6: Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the government of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the government of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island? 39.8% 35% % 25% 23.8% % % 1 5% 6.8% 11.2% 14.8% 6.3% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly Oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 9

10 Question 7: Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the government of Estonia in the event that Russia intervenes militarily in support of ethnic Russians living in Estonia? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % 5 Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the government of Estonia in the event that Russia intervenes militarily in support of ethnic Russians living in Estonia? 36.5% 40.5% % 21.1% % 17.4% 14.5% 11.7% 11.4% 1 5.2% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 10

11 Question 8: Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the government of Ukraine in the event that Russia intervenes militarily in support of ethnic Russians living in Ukraine? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % Neither support nor oppose Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % 5 Would you support or oppose taking military action to support the government of Ukraine in the event that Russia intervenes militarily in support of ethnic Russians living in Ukraine? 39.9% 37.2% % 22.5% % 19.2% 17.8% 11.3% 1 3.3% 5.4% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching, Research and Oppose Strongly Oppose WIPPO Snap Poll I 11

12 Question 9: What impact will the nuclear agreement signed by Iran and the P5+1, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have on regional stability in the Middle East? Response Option Positive impact % % Negative impact % % No impact % % Don t know % % 8 What impact will the nuclear agreement signed by Iran and the P5+1, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have on regional stability in the Middle East? 69.8% % 25.8% 31.2% 2 9.6% 16.7% 11.2% 9.4% Positive impact Negative impact No impact Don t know Source: Teaching, Research and WIPPO Snap Poll I 12

13 Question 10 (if answered Positive impact to Question 9): Why do you believe the agreement will have a positive impact on regional stability in the Middle East? Please select all that apply. Response Option It decreases the likelihood that other states in the region will pursue nuclear weapons % Other states in the region will become less assertive towards Iran % % Iran will become less involved in conflicts in the region % % Iran will be less able to support terrorist organizations % % Other (please explain) % % None of the above % % 8 Why do you believe the agreement will have a positive impact on regional stability in the Middle East? % % 30.8% 31.7% 22.7% % It decreases the likelihood that other states in the region will pursue nuclear weapons 10.2% Other states in the region will become less assertive towards Iran Iran will become less involved in conflicts in the region 7. Iran will be less able to support terrorist organizations 1.6% Other (please explain) 6.2% 3.8% None of the above Source: Teaching,Research and WIPPO Snap Poll I 13

14 Question 11 (if answered Negative impact to Question 9): Why do you believe the agreement will have a negative impact on regional stability in the Middle East? Please select all that apply. Response Option It increases the likelihood that other states in the region will pursue nuclear weapons % Other states in the region will become more assertive towards Iran % % Iran will become more involved in conflicts in the region % % Iran will be more able to support terrorist organizations % % Other (please explain) % % None of the above % % 10 Why do you believe the agreement will have a negative impact on regional stability in the Middle East? % % 45.5% 52.3% 48.9% 51.1% 40.9% 2 It increases the likelihood that other states in the region will pursue nuclear weapons Source: Teaching,Research and 15. Other states in the region will become more assertive towards Iran Iran will become Iran will be more more involved in able to support conflicts in the terrorist region organizations 19.3% 7.8% 8.8% 2.3% Other (please explain) None of the above WIPPO Snap Poll I 14

15 Question 12: With which of the following obligations specified in the agreement do you believe Iran will fully comply? Please select all that apply. Response Option Allowing IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities and uranium supply chains % % Limiting uranium enrichment % % Shipping spent nuclear fuel out of Iran % % None of the above % % Don t know % % 8 With which of the following obligations specified in the agreement do you believe Iran will fully comply? % 59.7% 42.8% % 20.5% % % 24.4% Allowing IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities and uranium supply chains Source: Teaching,Research and Limiting uranium enrichment Shipping spent nuclear fuel out of Iran None of the above Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 15

16 Question 13: Would Iran have accepted the agreement if the Obama administration had threatened to increase sanctions in the absence of an agreement? Response Option Yes % % No % % Don t know % 6 Would Iran have accepted the agreement if the Obama administration had threatened to increase sanctions in the absence of an agreement? 48.9% 28.6% 31.1% 34.6% 40.3% % Source: Teaching,Research and Yes No Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 16

17 Question 14 (if answered Yes to previous question): Would Iran have agreed to more concessions in the JCPOA if the Obama administration had threatened to increase sanctions in the absence of an agreement? Response Option Yes % % No % % Don t know % % 10 Would Iran have agreed to more concessions in the JCPOA if the Obama administration had threatened to increase sanctions in the absence of an agreement? % % 27.6% % 21.7% 12.1% Source: Teaching,Research and Yes No Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 17

18 Question 15: If a future U.S. president were to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement, would that increase, decrease, or have no effect on the likelihood of Iran renewing its nuclear weapons program? Response Option Increase % % Decrease % Have no effect % Don t know % % 10 If a future U.S. president were to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement, would that increase, decrease, or have no effect on the likelihood of Iran renewing its nuclear weapons program? % % 2 Source: Teaching,Research and 2.3% 9.5% 8.6% 24.5% 23.2% 4.4% Increase Decrease Have no effect Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 18

19 Question 16: One year from now, will Greece still be using the Euro as its currency? Response Option Yes % % No % Don t know % % 8 One year from now, will Greece still be using the Euro as its currency? 65.4% % 26.8% % 18.6% 21.6% Yes No Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 19

20 Question 17: Would Greece be better off if it stopped using the Euro as its currency? Response Option Yes % % No % % Don t know % % 8 Would Greece be better off if it stopped using the Euro as its currency? % 58.8% % 23.2% 17.4% Source: Teaching,Research & Yes No Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 20

21 Question 18A: Does conducting search-and-rescue operations for migrants traveling in international waters increase, decrease, or have no effect on future migration flows? Response Option Increases future flows % % Decreases future flows % No effect on future flows % % Don t know % % 8 Does conducting search-and-rescue operations for migrants traveling in international waters increase, decrease, or have no effect on future migration flows? % 33.6% 29.4% 30.4% 29.6% 2 2.8% 6.4% 10.3% Increases future flows Decreases future flows No effect on future flows Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 21

22 Question 18B: There has been a recent increase in African migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Does conducting search-and-rescue operations for migrants traveling in international waters increase, decrease, or have no effect on future migration flows? Response Option Increases future flows % % Decreases future flows % % No effect on future flows % % Don t know % There has been a recent increase in African migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Does conducting search-and-rescue operations for migrants traveling in international waters increase, decrease, or have no effect on future migration flows? % 31.5% 28.2% 33.2% 27.6% 2 3.1% 7.7% 10.1% Increases future flows Decreases future flows No effect on future flows Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 22

23 Question 18C: There has been a recent increase in Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants attempting to cross the Andaman Sea. Does conducting search-andrescue operations for migrants traveling in international waters increase, decrease, or have no effect on future migration flows? Response Option Increases future flows % % Decreases future flows % % No effect on future flows % % Don t know % % There has been a recent increase in Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants attempting to cross the Andaman Sea. Does conducting search-and-rescue operations for migrants traveling in international waters increase, decrease, or have no effect on future migratio % 32.9% 37.2% 32.3% 25.2% % 0.5% 5.3% Increases future flows Decreases future flows No effect on future flows Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 23

24 Question 19A: The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA (the world governing body for soccer) for corruption. Do you support or oppose the indictment? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % Don t know % % 6 The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA (the world governing body for soccer) for corruption. Do you support or oppose the indictment? 53.1% 31.5% 29.9% 28.9% 25.9% % 11.6% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching,Research & 2.3% 1.3% % Oppose Strongly Oppose 2.3% Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 24

25 Question 19B: The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA (the world governing body for soccer) for corruption, even though the FIFA officials are not U.S. citizens and the crimes were not committed in the United States. Do you support or oppose the indictment? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % Don t know % % The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA for corruption, even though the FIFA officials are not U.S. citizens and the crimes were not committed in the United States. Do you support or oppose the indictment? % % 28.9% 25.8% % 1 7.8% 5.2% 7.2% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose 2. Oppose 0.4% Strongly Oppose Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 25

26 Question 19C: The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA (the world governing body for soccer) for corruption. Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized this as a political attempt to extend U.S. jurisdiction to other states. Do you support or oppose the indictment? Response Option Strongly support % Support % Neither support nor oppose % % Oppose % Strongly Oppose % % Don t know % % 6 The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA for corruption. Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized this as a political attempt to extend U.S. jurisdiction to other states. Do you support or oppose the indictment? 49.1% 30.3% 33.1% 23.8% % 10.9% 13.4% 4.2% 5.2% 3.6% 4.8% 1.8% Strongly support Source: Teaching,Research & Support Neither support nor oppose Oppose Strongly Oppose Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 26

27 Question 19D: The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA (the world governing body for soccer) for corruption. The day before the indictments, Senators John McCain (R) and Robert Menendez (D) criticized FIFA s plan to hold the 2018 World Cup in Russia because of that country s continued involvement in Ukraine. Do you support or oppose the indictment? Response Option Strongly support % % Support % % Neither support nor oppose % Oppose % % Strongly Oppose % % Don t know % % 6 The U.S. Justice Department has indicted officials from FIFA for corruption. The day before the indictments, Senators John McCain (R) and Robert Menendez (D) criticized FIFA s plan to hold the 2018 World Cup in Russia because of that country's continued i 47.5% 36.1% 27.4% 25.9% 29.7% 2 7.6% Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Source: Teaching,Research & 3.2% 4.1% 2.5% 3.2% 1.1% Oppose Strongly Oppose 11.7% Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 27

28 Question 20A: Do you think the decision to award the 2018 World Cup to Russia made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? Response Option Significantly more likely % % Somewhat more likely % % Neither more nor less likely % % Somewhat less likely % % Significantly less likely % % Don t know % % 6 Do you think the decision to award the 2018 World Cup to Russia made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? 53.6% 41.8% 31.9% 24.8% 2 6.2% 6.7% Significantly more likely 3.4% Somewhat more likely Neither more nor less likely 6.7% 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% Somewhat less likely Significantly less likely 7.7% Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 28

29 Question 20B: Do you think awarding the 2018 World Cup to the United Kingdom would have made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? Response Option Significantly more likely % % Somewhat more likely % % Neither more nor less likely % % Somewhat less likely % % Significantly less likely % Don t know % % 6 Do you think awarding the 2018 World Cup to the United Kingdom would have made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? 53.3% 45.5% 25.5% 25.3% 2 0.6% 8.2% Significantly more likely Source: Teaching,Research & 1.5% 12.6% Somewhat more likely Neither more nor less likely 5.4% Somewhat less likely 9.7% 9.4% 3. Significantly less likely Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 29

30 Question 21A: Do you think the decision to award the 2022 World Cup to Qatar made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? Response Option Significantly more likely % % Somewhat more likely % Neither more nor less likely % % Somewhat less likely % % Significantly less likely % % Don t know % % 6 Do you think the decision to award the 2022 World Cup to Qatar made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? 50.5% 41.4% 29.1% 28.8% % 10.2% 9.5% 7.4% Significantly more likely Somewhat more likely Neither more nor less likely 3.2% 1.9% Somewhat less likely 1.3% 0.1% Significantly less likely Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 30

31 Question 21B: Do you think awarding the 2022 World Cup to the United States would have made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? Response Option Significantly more likely % % Somewhat more likely % % Neither more nor less likely % % Somewhat less likely % % Significantly less likely % % Don t know % % 6 Do you think awarding the 2022 World Cup to the United States would have made the U.S. decision to indict FIFA officials more or less likely? 40.2% 45.1% 33.5% 22.9% % 16.2% 7.2% 5.6% 6.4% 7.9% 0. Significantly more likely 1.8% Somewhat more likely Neither more nor less likely Somewhat less likely Significantly less likely Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 31

32 Question 22: The United States is negotiating a free trade agreement with twelve Pacific nations called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (or TPP). Do you support or oppose this free trade agreement? Response Option I strongly support it % % I somewhat support it % % I neither support nor oppose it % % I somewhat oppose it % I strongly oppose it % Don t know % % The United States is negotiating a free trade agreement with twelve Pacific nations called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (or TPP). Do you support or oppose this free trade agreement? 35.7% 27.3% 25.4% 27.8% % % 11.6% 11.3% 6.7% % I strongly support it I somewhat support it I neither support nor oppose it I somewhat oppose it I strongly oppose it Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 32

33 Question 23: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed free trade and investment agreement between the United States and twelve other countries in the Asia Pacific region. If the TPP were approved today, would it have a positive, negative, or have no effect on your financial situation? Response Option Positive effect % % Negative effect % % No effect % % Don t know % % 6 The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed free trade and investment agreement between the United States and twelve other countries in the Asia Pacific region. If the TPP were approved today, would it have a positive, negative, or have no effect on % 35.6% 31.8% % 12.3% 16.3% 5.2% Positive effect Negative effect No effect Don t know Source: Teaching,Research & WIPPO Snap Poll I 33

34 Question 24: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a proposed free trade and investment agreement between the United States and the European Union. If the TTIP were approved today, would it have a positive, negative, or have no effect on your financial situation? Response Option Positive effect % % Negative effect % No effect % % Don t know % 6 The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a proposed free trade and investment agreement between the United States and the European Union. If the TTIP were approved today, would it have a positive, negative, or have no effect on your fi 47.9% 38.4% 30.6% 31.6% % 17.2% 11.7% 4.3% Source: Teaching,Research & Positive effect Negative effect No effect Don t know WIPPO Snap Poll I 34

35 Table 1: Public Sample vs. Population Comparison Respondents Population Male Female Total Fisher s exact test p = Respondents Population Less than $15, % % $15,000 - $24, % $25,000 - $34, % % $35,000 - $49, % % $50,000 - $74, % % $75,000 - $99, % % $100,000 or more % % Total Pearson s Chi-squared test p = Respondents Population 15 to 19 years % % 20 to 24 years % % 25 to 34 years % % 35 to 44 years % % 45 to 54 years % % 55 to 59 years % to 64 years % % 65 to 74 years % Total Pearson s Chi-squared test p=0.229 WIPPO Snap Poll I 35