Trends in Gulf Demographics and Labour Migration (focus on Bahrain)

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1 and Labour Migration (focus on Bahrain)

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3 and Labour Migration (focus on Bahrain)

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5 1 Abstract: This paper examines the relationship that India shares with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries with a particular focus on India-Bahrain relations. Movement of labour is a critical aspect of this relationship. The trends in the economy and nationalization of the workforce have repercussions for future movements. However, this paper presents how this relationship vis-à-vis labour movement can be enhanced. It also presents a plan for the way forward with employers' perspectives and the direction that governments of both countries may take. 1 This paper is written for the IISS Bahrain India Forum to be held on 6th April, 2015 in New Delhi, India on the subject, "Trends in Gulf Demographics and Labour Migration" by Dr. A Didar Singh & Natasha Chhabra, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Labour Migration

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7 Contents A. Background B. Introduction I. India- Gulf relations II. India- Bahrain relations C. Gulf Demographics (focus on Bahrain) I. Population composition II. Population Pyramid III. Fertility Rates and the Demographic Transition D. Labour Migration to Bahrain E. Arab Spring, unemployment and nationalization of workforce F. Challenges I. Common challenges II. for Employers G. Way forward I. Employers II. What can the Government of Bahrain do? III. What can the Government of India do? IV. What can be done collectively? H. Conclusion and Labour Migration

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9 Background For hundreds of years and especially from the middle ages onwards, it were the 'Global- Tailwinds' that carried goods, persons and ideas across the seven seas. It were these seawinds that resulted in organised and sustained international trade and its corollary - migration. Migration has always been the other side of the coin of globalisation. In previous eras, population movements have taken place side by side with the development of contacts and flows between different societies and cultures. In particular, large human migrations played a fundamental role during the first phase of economic globalization, which took place between the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. In this respect, the present situation is paradoxical, because in a world which is more interconnected than ever, in which financial and trade flows have been liberalized, the mobility of persons runs up against severe barriers which restrict it. (The only exception is probably the Gulf.) The movements of Indian migration can be broadly classified into three phases: ancient, colonial and modern. During the ancient period, migration was mainly intended to promote trade, conquer, and spread the teachings of Buddha. In that period, traders from India crossed the seas to the Persian Gulf region and the east coast of Africa and over land to Central and West Asia and South East Asia in search of fame and fortune (Jayaram, 2004). R. K. Jain has distinguishes between two main phases of Indian migration (Jain, 1993): voverseas emigration in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century (colonial period). vlate twentieth century migration to industrially developed countries (post-colonial period). A new and significant phase of migration began after India became independent in Broadly, two patterns of emigration can be identified in the post-independence emigration: vthe emigration of professionals to the industrially advanced countries like the United States of America, England and Canada, and vthe emigration of skilled and unskilled labourers to West Asia. The emigration of skilled and unskilled labourers to West Asia is entirely different in its economic and social implication from the 19th and early 20th century emigration. The process of migration to West Asia has been voluntary and temporary in its nature (Pant, 1998). In the wake of the oil price boom in the 1970s in the Gulf region, the demand for labourers grew stupendously. The fixed temporary contacts attracted labourers from the South Asian countries to work in the oil producing countries of the Middle Eastern region. and Labour Migration 01

10 By the year 1975, the labour supplies from Arab countries seemed to have been depleted (Knerr, 1990). This created an increasing demand for expatriate labour in these oil exporting countries of the Gulf region such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. This demand could not be satisfied locally because of small domestic populations (Weiner, 1982). Most of the emigrants here were semi-skilled and skilled workers (as construction workers, housemaids, cooks and drivers) recruited by agents operating in major cities of India. As of now, it is estimated that the Gulf region accounts for 6 million or 50 per cent of the Indian emigrants. Migration to the Gulf began in 1970s and gained momentum over the years. Indians in the Gulf constitute nearly 6 million with a majority of them in UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait; working in the construction, oil and natural gas, trading and financial sectors. Although a clear majority are low and semi-skilled labourers, the presence of professional emigrants cannot be ignored. The Indian expatriate population in West Asia increased from 0.2 million in 1975 to 3.3 million in 2001 and is estimated at around 5 million in 2010 (Irudya Rajan and Narayana 2010) and 6 million in Moreover, the opportunities for skilled workers are poised to increase further as recruitment becomes open for nearly 300,000 jobs, with new refineries and power plants being set up in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi in the course of the next five years. The boom in the investment sector and the associated migration of skilled workers refute the former notion that Indian emigration to the West Asia comprises exclusively of unskilled and semi-skilled labour (Khadria, 2009). Having considered the historical and contemporary proclivity of Indian migrants towards the Gulf region, the importance of the India-GCC corridor cannot be overemphasized. 02 and Labour Migration

11 Introduction I. India- Gulf relations The relationship between the countries of the GCC and India is one that has evolved gradually over the years. Experts, academics and researchers have reiterated the reasons for the importance of this relationship. The general consensus rests with the importance of the trade links (West Asia is the largest trade bloc partner of India); geopolitical importance of this relationship; long term energy security for India (India imports almost 70 per cent of its energy needs from the Gulf countries); labour migration to the Gulf (6 million Indians in the Gulf) and remittances to India (more than 25 billion USD in 2014); security concerns (maritime security, security in the region); capital flows (important for India's growth); education; and tourism (Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 2012; Baru,2014; Pradhan, 2014) Energy hungry India's oil import from the GCC countries: and (All figures in US $ Millions) Country Year Bahrain Kuwait 4, , Oman Qatar , Saudi Arabia 10, , UAE 3, , GCC Total 19,957 63, (Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India cited in Pradhan, 2014) India's largest trading partner bloc is West Asia. It has vast potential as India's investment partner in the near future (Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 2014) and Labour Migration 03

12 Imports from GCC Countries S.No. Country (Apr-Dec) 1. BAHRAIN KUWAIT 17, , OMAN 2, , QATAR 15, , SAUDI ARABIA 36, , U ARAB EMTS 29, , The new Government's 'Link West Policy' acknowledges the importance of continuing a strategic partnership with this region. This idea has also been mooted in the past but despite the right intentions, it didn't go very far. However, former Diplomats, Commentators, researchers, and academics have called with renewed energy for prioritizing a multi-dimensional relationship with the region. India must proactively engage to promote an institutional engagement with the region (Krishnamurthy, 2014; Siddiqui, 2014; Raja Mohan, 2014) The Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, Government of India has signed Agreements with all the GCC countries in the realm of labour migration: 1. Labour Co-operation for Domestic Service Workers with the KSA 2. MoU with Bahrain 3. MoU with Oman Total 101, , (Ministry of Commerce, Government of India, 2015) 4. MoU with the UAE 5. MoU with Kuwait 6. Agreement between India and Govt. of Qatar on Manpower 7. Additional protocol Agreement between India and Qatar The rest of the paper focuses on India's relationship with Bahrain. 2 (Accessed on 30th March, 2015) 04 and Labour Migration

13 II. India- Bahrain relations 1. Trade Relations with Bahrain (Values in US $ Millions) S.No. Year EXPORT %Growth India's Total 178, , , , , Export 4. %Growth %Share IMPORT %Growth India's Total 288, , , , , Import 9. %Growth %Share TOTAL , , , , TRADE 12. %Growth India's Total 467, , , , , Trade 14. %Growth %Share TRADE BALANCE 17. India's Trade -109, , , , , Balance Note: The country's total imports (S.No.6) since does not include import of Petroleum Products ( ) and Crude Oil ( ) 3 (Ministry of Commerce, Government of India) India and Bahrain have enjoyed cordial political, economic and cultural relations for a long period of time. In fact, their relations can be traced back around 5000 years ago. Of course, more recently, the oil boom of 1970s resulted in a fresh impetus in trade relations between the two countries. The oil boom also resulted in a migration boom.as can be seen in the 3 (Accessed 30th March, 2015) and Labour Migration 05

14 table above, the total exports to Bahrain in the year were US $ million whereas the imports were US $ million resulting in a total trade of US $ 1, Million. However, one of the most important export, as it were, to the Kingdom of Bahrain remains the large number of skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled workforce from India. Bilateral Agreements and MoUs signed between Bahrain and India: a) Air Service Agreement (April 2000) b) MOU on Cooperation between Ministries of Foreign Affairs (January 2004) c) Agreement on Juridical and judicial Co-operation in Civil and Commercial Matters (January 2004) d) Extradition Treaty (January 2004) e) Agreement on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters (January 2004) f) Agreement on the Promotion and Protection of Bilateral Investment (January 2004) g) Agreement for Media Co-operation between Prasar Bharati and Bahrain Radio & TV Corporation (March 2007) h) MOU on Labour and Manpower Development (June 2009) i) Agreement regarding exchange of information with respect to Taxes (May 2012) j) MOU on Cooperation in the field of Information and Communication Technology (May 2012) k) MOU on the establishment of a Joint High Commission (February 2014) l) MOU on cooperation between the Foreign Service Institute, Ministry of External Affairs, India and the Diplomatic Institute (February 2014) m) MOU for cooperation in the field of youth and sports (February 2014) 06 As can be seen from the range of agreements signed between the two countries, the relationship has certainly diversified and has been steadily moving on from remaining a typical buyer-seller relationship to partners in progress. The Minister of External Affairs, Ms. Sushma Swaraj, visited Manama in 2014 to strengthen this relationship further and show India's commitment to the relationship. Key areas for cooperation so far include agriculture, infrastructure, healthcare, medical tourism, real estate and pharmaceuticals. Also, Bahrain being a member of the GCC; and a party to several Free Trade Agreements with European nations as well as the NAFTA can provide access to Indian goods for other destinations as well. Recently, Governments of Bahrain and India have partnered to "undertake sustained effort" to boost joint ventures and initiatives in ICT including measures on e-commerce, e-government and information security (FICCI Arab Division, 2015). and Labour Migration

15 Gulf Demographics (focus on Bahrain) I. Population composition of Bahrain Citizen and Expatriate Population Citizens Expatriate Population Composition of Bahraini Population Citizens Indian Labour Other Foreign guest workers (Based on data from the World Bank, 2015 and data from the Indian Embassy in the 4 Kingdom of Bahrain, 2015) 4 Total population of Bahrain million (2014 projections by the World Bank) Expatriate Population- 666,172 (Bahrain Census, 2010) Citizen Population Indian Expatriate Population- 350,000 (Estimates by the Indian Embassy in the Kingdom of Bahrain, 2015) and Labour Migration 07

16 II. Population pyramid of Bahrain Population pyramid, Bahrain, 2010 Age groups Males Females Percentages Population pyramid, Bahrain, 2050 Age groups (UNESCWA projections) Percentages Males Females The current population pyramid (2010) and the projection both depict the total population of Bahrain. As seen in the figure, the pyramid is skewed towards the working ages of male population with the highest percentage of population being males from the age of It is also telling that the population pyramid projection of 2050 is quite different clearly showing signs of an ageing population and an advanced stage of the demographic transition. 5 (Accessed on 20th March, 2015) 08 and Labour Migration

17 III. Fertility rates in Bahrain and the Demographic Transition From a fertility rate of 4.63 in , the fertility rates have dropped to replacement levels of 2.10 in and will face a further reduction of below replacement levels to reach 1.69 in (UN ESCWA). The reduction in fertility rates have been assisted by the support of the state towards education of women. For this reason, pro-natalist policies may not be easy to implement as they are in direct contradiction to the reality of the stage of demographic transition. Fargues (2011) avers that the lack of naturalization and intermarriages makes the two populations reproduce in isolation. As a result of which, Nationals and non-nationals have grown as two independent populations. Gulf countries are an extreme example of nonintegration into societies of host countries. He warns that at this rate, the demographic base of the host countries will continue to become narrower necessitating a drastic reform in immigration policies. and Labour Migration 09

18 Labour migration to Bahrain "Migrants are incorporated into the economic structure but are excluded from the social structure. Separation, not integration or assimilation is the goal" (Weiner (a), 1982: 27) Migrants in Bahrain are usually referred to as "guest workers" or "Non-Bahraini Nationals" at both legal and policy levels. The presence of foreign workers is not treated as the presence of 'migrants' (Dito, 2007) The MoU between the Government of India and the Kingdom of Bahrain in its Article 1 defines a migrant worker as an 'employee', "The term "employee" means all temporary contractual expatriate employees employed in Bahrain for a certain period of time as per the contract after the expiry of which such employees will leave the Kingdom of Bahrain for India or any other country" It is important to keep in mind that the increase in labour migration from non-arab countries and especially from South Asia to the Gulf countries was post 1970s after a substantial increase in oil prices which fuelled growth in other sectors especially construction. The oil boom therefore resulted in a migration boom (Fargues, 2011; Rajan and Singh, 2015). This also is a marker for an increase in the import of goods from the subcontinent. The relations between the two countries have only intensified since then (Pradhan, 2010). Indian labour movement to Bahrain: According to estimates of the Indian Embassy in the Kingdom of Bahrain, of the nearly 650,000 expatriates, approximately 350,000 Indian nationals form the largest expatriate community in Bahrain along with Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans, Pakistanis, Filipinos, Indonesians and Arabs of different nationalities. The Indian workforce is the largest of the expatriate workforce. Majority are from Kerala (about 200,000) followed by Tamil Nadu (about 50,000), AP/Telangana (about 40,000), Karnataka (about 25,000) and rest from Maharashtra, Goa, Punjab, UP and Rajasthan. Over 65 percent of the Indian expatriate workforce is employed in construction, contracting and maintenance sectors. There are also a relatively small number of Indian housemaids estimated at around They come mostly from AP/Telangana. The retail and other business activities include provisions, hardware, jewelry, electronic etc. Some others have taken up jobs such as storekeepers, chemists, carpenters, barbers etc. In addition to the predominant blue-collar labour force, there is a sizeable number of doctors, engineers, chartered accountants, bankers, managers and other professionals who play a vital role in 10 and Labour Migration

19 Bahrain's socio-economic development. Professionals such as doctors, engineers, accountants etc. have also found opportunities in Bahrain. Migration to Bahrain will certainly be affected if the downward trend in prices of oil continue as this has a direct impact on the construction industry which employs the maximum number of Indian expatriate workers. Almost half of the population/ residents in Bahrain at any given point of time is composed of temporary workers/guest workers. However, Bahrain is not a country of immigration. Herein lies the contradiction, There are two separate demographic profiles in Bahrain- one of the citizens and another of these temporary migrant workers. Therefore, the structural changes in the demography of Bahrain cannot be corrected in the short term (Fargues, 2011). and Labour Migration 11

20 Arab Spring, unemployment and nationalization of workforce There has been a demonstrated intersection between demography, security and the Arab Spring (LaGraffe, 2012). A large number of unemployed youth present a recipe for unrest and an extremely dissatisfied society looking for a sense of purpose. What is striking is that demographic transitions work across space and time and the problems that they bring in their wake are structural and not cyclical (Gollerkeri and Chhabra, 2015). The Arab Spring that has gone down in history as one of the most striking revolts against established governance structures and authority. In order to address the problem of unemployment amongst its youth, a number of countries responded by intensifying their nationalization programmes for the labour markets of the private sector. Affirmative action and positive discrimination have been used as strategies in different countries ranging from the United States of America and India. Nationalisation of the workforce is one such strategy. It has been identified as a good political decision to address the problem of unemployment amongst a large number of youth especially in the GCC countries. There is also a general consensus that a long-term dependence on an expatriate workforce has long term implications and consequences (Randeree, 2012). However, it may not necessarily translate to good economics especially if this is policy is not accompanied by other strategies to educate and skill nationals and an increase in the participation of women in the workforce (Ibid). To take the example of one nationalization programme in the largest GCC country, let us turn to the example of Saudi Arabia. There are several businesses especially in Saudi Arabia who have protested against the strict enforcement of the unprecedented 'Nitaqat' law in 2011 that stipulates quotas for hiring of nationals in private firms. This distortion of the labour market assumes ex ante that the supply of workers in the host country is sufficient; that sufficient competition exists in the labour market. However, this does lower the competitiveness of businesses especially as it raises costs as the minimum wages for nationals are invariably higher. Some estimates suggest that the salaries of foreign workers may only be 1/4th of the average salary of Saudi nationals. In 2009, the average monthly private sector wage for nationals was SR 3137 per month, and for the same job, a foreign worker was paid around SR 765 (Hussain, 2014). There is also a concern for nationals not willing to do certain types of jobs for which many expatriate guest workers might be available from the sub-continent. The result is that even though the programme has succeeded in generating employment for nationals, there has been a significant impact on the performance of these firms. The competitiveness of firms has 12 and Labour Migration

21 been severely impacted resulting in the exit of a large number of firms and a reduction in the overall number of jobs available (Peck, 2014). Despite the shortcomings, this strategy has been adopted across GCC countries as a human resource management strategy (Randeree, 2012). The economic boom of the 1970s brought with it a commitment towards citizens through generous welfare programmes towards healthcare and housing (Dito, 2007). This was the beginning of the Bahrainisation policy in the early 1980s through the 'Project 10,000' aimed at increasing the participation of young Bahraini citizens in the private sector. This was followed by the introduction of a 'Strategic Choices Committee' in mid-1980s to address unemployment in Bahrain. This programme then took shape of a five-year plan. This programme, in 2001, took the shape of a more holistic programme with training programmes for employees and wage subsidies. The result, however, has been a substantial increase in the employment of Bahraini nationals in the public sector with the private sector still being dictated by market forces (Randeree, 2012) and Labour Migration 13

22 Challenges I. Common Challenges: 1. Demographic challenges: Structural changes in the demography of Bahrain; issues of citizenship, the nature of migration and the changing demographic profiles will create compelling conditions and issues of sustainability while ageing populations will necessitate in situ services. On the other hand, India's large population of youth will continue to look for gainful employment within and outside of India. 2. Incorporating the idea of access through commonly agreed to social security systems: A Survey of Blue-collared workers done recently revealed very poor housing conditions for these workers (Kanchana and Rajan, 2014). It is important for governments of both countries to negotiate and agree to a basic set of facilities for migrant workers to ensure their safety and welfare. The policy of importing labour and not people may be counterproductive in an increasingly interconnected and globalized world. 3. Skills will be at a premium (investment by both countries in training and skilling a huge chunk of the population) 4. Reducing costs of remittances 5. Tackling Irregular Migration II. for Employers 1. Shortfall in level of skills of the employed migrant worker (A lineman is hired instead of an electrician.) 2. Inability to adapt (There is a different work culture and atmosphere in the Gulf countries to which workers may or may not be able to adapt. This can also result from a lack of training for the work place requirements.) 3. Low productivity (The shortfall in the level of skills and the inability to adapt lead to a worker who is not as productive as she/he could have been.) 14 and Labour Migration

23 4. High rate of attrition (Locked in with an employer may lead to desertions. Also, the tenure is limited. This high rate of turnover impacts the productivity of the employer.) 5. Reduction in Competitiveness: (Following the quotas of nationalization programmes has resulted in a general decrease in competitiveness. It has also resulted in the overall decrease in the number of jobs available.) This is due to the nature of migration to the Gulf countries: 1. Kafala system or Visa sponsorship: There is evidence to suggest that this still exists despite the fact that it has been outlawed in most of the GCC countries. This kind of visa sponsorship system is unique to the Gulf countries wherein workers are tied to their employers. This increases the scope for abusive working conditions. François Crépeau, the special rapporteur of the United Nations on the human rights of migrants in a special report called for a fundamental reformation in the labour laws of the Gulf countries. There has been a plea to specifically abolish the Kafala system. Ironically, the Kafala is not a law but a tradition. It directly contradicts labour laws but it still has precedence (Khan, 2014) 2. Reliance on third party recruitment: The lack of the 'first mile connectivity'; an absence of the state or any credible authority where it's desperately needed- in providing credible information to an intending migrant- results in the presence of a large number of intermediaries increasing the risk of exploitation for the migrant and increasing employer detriment. A bulk of the workers to the Gulf are unskilled or low skilled workers being recruited by recruiting agents on behalf of the employers overseas. The Recruitment Agents in India are largely unorganized and therefore pose a huge challenge in regulation. and Labour Migration 15

24 Way forward I. Employers The possible solutions to these problems include: 1. Standard contracts 2. Direct recruitment/check on unscrupulous intermediaries: This may be done through innovative means through the use of technology. There are already a number of job portals that connect the employers and employees directly without having to go through the route of intermediaries or recruitment agents thereby making the process easier and more ethical. 3. Regulations for contract enforcement 4. Proactive role of Employers a. Commitment towards adherence to common standards b. Investing in skill development c. Mutual recognition of skills 5. Bilateral agreements between governments with the inclusion of employers in upholding commonly agreed standards which are enforceable II. What can the government of Bahrain do? 1. Impact assessment of programmes for Nationalization of workforce: Reconsider the impact of nationalization of workforce and find better and more innovative methods for addressing the issue of unemployment amongst its youth 2. Long term investment in education, skill and training programmes 3. Strict abolition of the Kafala system III. What can the Government of India do? 1. Organise mandatory pre-departure orientation programmes in India 2. Gender sensitivity in migration discourse: Even though a large number of women migrate from India to the Gulf countries, the discourse surrounding the discussions on 16 and Labour Migration

25 the labour migration remains rather desensitized towards the gender aspect of this migration. In fact, the number of female migrants will increase as the domestic service industry is rather unaffected by the economic downturn or the consequences of reduction in oil prices that the construction Industry may face (Abella, 2014). 3. Programmes for reintegration of returnee migrants: Studies and trends show (ICOE, 2009; Abella, 2014) that the downward trend in the prices of crude oil will affect the number of jobs available in sectors such as construction and therefore a number of migrants are expected to return as there will not be enough jobs. Therefore, there will be a fairly large number of Indian returnee workers from Bahrain and the other GCC countries that will need employment opportunities in their home countries. India can respond suitably by encouraging entrepreneurship opportunities to these migrant workers or involve them in skill development efforts in the country. 4. Reform in the Emigration Act, 1983: It is imperative for the Government to address the need for reforms in the existing Act. There is a need for a more holistic policy that also addresses immigration. The policy must take into consideration the voice of the Industry as well. 5. Organisation of Recruitment Agents: Assisting in organizing Recruitment Agents into an Industry so that they may be better regulated. To illustrate, at the moment, INR 20,000 is fixed as the maximum amount of money that Recruitment Agents can charge for the emigration process. However, this has been fixed arbitrarily without extensive consultation with Recruitment Agents. This has resulted in underhand dealings which results in exploitation of migrant workers. 6. The government is almost absent from the financing of migration resulting in huge debt burdens for migrant workers. The Government is also not involved in providing necessary information pro-actively to intending migrants which results in migrants obtaining information from intermediaries which include Recruitment Agents, family and friends. This information may not be entirely credible. IV. What can be done collectively? 1. Moving forward on the Abu Dhabi Dialogue. The Abu Dhabi Dialogue was an initiative by the United Arab Emirates to host ministerial consultations between Asian destination countries and the Colombo Process countries with the GCC States, plus Yemen and two additional Asian countries of destination namely Malaysia and Singapore. It constituted a milestone in regional cooperation on contractual labour mobility because it launched a collaborative approach to address development in temporary labour mobility in Asia. and Labour Migration 17

26 However, even though this platform served to discuss issues related to the recruitment system and the problems faced therein by the employers and the employees, it has not found a concrete way forward yet. Instead of reinventing the zero, any plans to work collectively to address challenges faced in labour movements must take advantage of this platform. 2. Post 2015 Development Agenda The need for integrating migration as one of the key subjects in the Post-2015 Development Agenda has been expressed a number of times by International and Intergovernmental organisations such as the United Nations and the International Organisation for Migration. Temporary migration is just as important, if not more, than permanent migration and especially in the South-South corridor. Discussions on temporary contractual mobility must be incorporated in the Agenda. 3. Use of existing initiatives by International Organisation Signing up to programmes such as the International Recruitment Integrity System (IRIS) which is a voluntary, online platform of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) for committing to a basic set of Ethical Recruitment Principles. 18 and Labour Migration

27 Conclusion The relationship between the GCC States and India will continue to grow in importance. This is a direct result of the overall geo-politics of the region. India will grow for a long period of time at a comparatively high growth rate. This makes India's appetite for energy rather large. However, dependence on the GCC states for energy is just one reason underpinning the importance of this relationship. Other reasons include security in maritime trade, investment flows, trade of goods and services and of course the large number of Indians who reside in the GCC States. There has been a marked change in the engagement of the Indian Government with its Diaspora. Therefore, the relationship that the Government shares with its Diaspora in the Gulf will continue to be of importance. Remittances from these Indians residing in the Gulf countries are important as they serve to promote and maintain consumption stability and are more or less unaffected by cyclical changes (Global Economic Prospects, 2015). The Indian Government must therefore consciously serve to reduce the costs of remittances. Another major reason for concern visà-vis Indian migrants in the Gulf countries has been the huge cost of migration due to the wide prevalence of the intermediaries and the absence of the Government in providing information and finance to these intending migrants thereby making them vulnerable to exploitation. With reference to protection of these migrants there must also be an investment in pre-departure orientation programmes and these should be made mandatory especially for women as the number of women migrant workers is set to increase. A long term concern has also been the absence of standard contracts and the absence of a social protection system for these migrants. Moving forward, it is important that these are negotiated and a minimum set of facilities agreed to. Also, on return, there may be opportunities to gainfully employ these migrants in the various skill development efforts of the country across various flagships programmes of the new government. The nature of this migration is circular. When the migrant leaves the country he/she is young, healthy and indebted and when they return they are older and may or may not still be indebted. The Indian government must commit itself to reintegration of these migrant workers into the Indian economy. The Gulf countries must commit towards ethical recruitment practices. The Kafala system of visas persists despite a ban on these by all GCC countries. There are also reports of poor housing and other facilities to low skilled migrants. A commitment by the Governments to rectify this will be very welcome. and Labour Migration 19

28 As India makes efforts towards facilitating an easier and more conducive environment for investors, the hope is that investment from GCC will also improve. Skills will be at a premium in the coming years and therefore the private sector from these countries may benefit immensely from investing in skill development programmes in countries of origin. This will also remain important as the demographic base of the countries of the GCC is rather narrow with dwindling fertility rates due to the stage of demographic transition they are in. The marker for an increase in labour migration from the subcontinent to the GCC countries was the increase in oil prices in the 1970s which fuelled growth in other sectors. It is quite possible that the downward trend faced in oil prices which have almost halved cost of per barrel in the past 20 years will have a substantial impact on the employment of foreign workers. The decline in oil prices coupled with nationalization programmes for employment generation in the GCC countries will reduce the number of jobs available to migrant workers especially in sectors such as construction but jobs in the domestic sector as well as for other in situ services is expected to grow. The Indian government must be prepared to accommodate these workers who would have otherwise found employment in the GCC countries. Finally, there are plenty of opportunities to find ways of maximizing the potential and benefits of temporary, contractual migration between the GCC countries and the subcontinent. Focusing on good economics, keeping in mind the competitiveness of the businesses and a commitment to ethical recruitment is the way forward. 20 and Labour Migration

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