The Political Geography of Virginia and Florida: Bookends of the New South

Transcription

1 Table 1. Growth by Migration Components: and Florida, Florida 2007 Population (000s) 7,712 18,251 Growth Rate* Total Migration Rate* Domestic Migration Immmigration * growth rates per 100 populaton ** non-hispanic members of race Source: Authors analysis of U.S. Census estimates Figure 1A. : Net Migration Exchanges with Regions of the U.S., ,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 73,738 30,000 20,000 10,000 17,170 18, ,000-20,000-30,000-53,214-40,000-50,000-60,000 South Northeast Midwest Source: Authors Analysis of Internal Revenue Service Migration Flow data

2 Figure 1B. Florida: Net Migration Exchanges with Regions of the U.S., , ,128 31, ,223 South Northeast Midwest Source: Authors Analysis of Internal Revenue Service Migration Flow data Figure 2. Race-Ethnic Profiles: Total Population vs. Eligible Voters White Black Asian Other Hispanic 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Eligible Voters Total Florida Eligible Voters Source: Author s Analysis of 2007 Current Population Survey

3 Table 2. Demographic, Economic, and Political Indicators: U.S., and Florida Indicator U.S. Florida Demographic Indicators / State Rank % White / / 40 % Age / / 1 % Born in Same State # / / 50 Economic Indicators 2006 / State Rank % College Grads* / / 29 % Professionals** / / 49 % Manufacturing** / / 43 Median HH Income 48,451 56,277 / 9 45,495 / 28 % Persons in Poverty / / 26 State Political Indicators Dem/Rep House Members 3D/8R 9D/16R Dem/Rep Senators 1D/1R 1D/1R Governor: Dem or Rep D R Democratic Margin Pres -8-5 # among native born residents *among persons age 25 and over ** among civilian employed population age 16 and over Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey and state election results

4 The Political Geography of and Florida: Bookends of the New South Metropolitan Areas and Regions Map 1. Metropolitan Areas and Regions Winchester, VA-WV Washington-ArlingtonAlexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV NORTHERN REGIONS Counties Harrisonburg Metropolitan areas Charlottesville SOUTH AND WEST Roanoke Blacksburg RICHMOND AND EAST Richmond Lynchburg BEACH Danville Kingsport-BristolBristol, TN-VA Population Change by County in, Map 2. Population Change by County, Decline NORTHERN Less than 9% Growth 10% to 19% Growth 20%+ Growth RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates

5 Figure 3. Share of Population in Regions, 2007 (%) 29.3 Northern 31.8 Richmond and East 17.6 Beach 21.2 Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates Figure 4. Population Growth in Regions, Percent change Northern Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates

6 Table 3. Eligible Voters in Key Demographic Segments, 2006 and Change since 2000 Share of Percent Total Change Key Demographic Segments Minorities Whites Age White Working-Age College Grads, White Working-Age Non College Grads Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey and 2000 U.S. Decennial Census Figure 5. Eligible Voters in Key Demographic Segments, Regions Minorities White 65+ Whites College Grad WA Whites Non College, WA 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Northern Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey and 2000 U.S. Decennial Census

7 Figure 6. Change in Eligible Voters for Key Demographic Segments, Regions, Minorities White 65+ Whites College Grad WA Whites Non College, WA 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Northern Va. Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates

8 Table Race-Ethnic Attributes of Eligible Voters for Regions in Share in Race-Ethnic Group, 2006 Region White* Black* Asian* Other* Hispanic Total State Total Northern Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey * non-hispanic members of race group Table Age of Eligible Voters for Regions in Share of Group, 2006 Region Total State Total Northern Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey

9 Table Region of Birth of Eligible Voters: Regions in Share of Group in Birthplace, 2006 Region Rest of South Northeast Midwest Foreign Born Total State Total Northern Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors analysis of U.S. Census 2006 American Community Survey Table 7. Voting by Selected Demographic Groups, 2004 and President 2006 Senate Group Democrat Republican Dem-Rep Democrat Republican Dem-Rep White Black Hispanic Asian Men Women White Men White Women HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Grad Postgraduate White Noncollege White College Total Source: Authors analysis of 2004 and 2006 exit polls

10 The Political Geography of and Florida: Bookends of the New South Maps 3A 3C. County Presidential Voting, Presidential Voting in by County 1988 NORTHERN Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin 10%+ RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH 1996 Presidential Voting in by County 1996 NORTHERN Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10%+ Democrat Margin 10%+ RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH 2004 Presidential Voting in by County 2004 NORTHERN Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin 10%+ RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH Source: Authors analysis of election returns