Trade and Labor Market Adjustment: Recent Evidence from Brazil
|
|
- Sheila Jones
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Trade and Labor Market Adjustment: Recent Evidence from Brazil Rafael Dix-Carneiro Duke University, NBER and BREAD January 25, 2018 This chapter reviews recent evidence on how the Brazilian labor market adjusted to the trade liberalization episode of the early 1990s. The results I discuss are important for at least three reasons in the context of this session on Trade and Labor Market Adjustment. First, the Brazilian trade liberalization is a valuable episode from which to learn about trade and labor market adjustment. This episode consisted of large unilateral import tariff reductions between 1990 and Average tariffs fell from 31% to 13% and there was ample variation across sectors. Importantly, trade liberalization in Brazil can be approximately viewed as a once-and-for-all event. Import tariffs were gradually reduced between 1990 and 1995, but import tariffs remained relatively constant thereafter. This allows us to trace the evolution of liberalization s effects over time. Second, Brazil has excellent data sources on the labor market, covering a period including the trade liberalization episode. Among these data sources are the Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (RAIS), an administrative dataset starting in 1986 which provides high quality information on all formal-sector workers and firms in the country. In particular, it is possible to track workers over time across firms, sectors and regions. The research discussed here also employs multiple rounds of the Decennial Demographic Census covering the period ranging from 1970 to 2010 to obtain information about the Brazilian informal sector or about the labor market as a whole. 1 Together, these data make possible a comprehensive I thank Brian Kovak, Rodrigo Soares and Gabriel Ulyssea for collaboration on the topics discussed here. Special thanks to Brian Kovak for comments on this chapter. 1 The informal sector accounts for approximately half of overall employment in Brazil. A worker is considered informal if she is informally employed by a firm (off the books and invisible to the government) or if she is self-employed. In each case, the worker does not receive the benefits or regulatory protections 1
2 and detailed analysis on how the Brazilian labor markets adjusted to trade. Third, it complements the evidence discussed by my co-panelists Gordon Hanson and Lori Kletzer, which focuses on a developed country such as the United States. Given Brazil s status as an important middle-income country and its very different labor market structure compared to the United States, it is interesting to contrast these two countries experiences adjusting to globalization. In addition, although the rise of China was probably the single most important development in the global economy in the past 30 years, it is usually agreed by economists that the emergence of China is a done deal and that it is unlikely that we will witness another comparable episode in our lifetimes. In contrast, even though Brazil went through a major trade liberalization episode in the 1990s, it still remains a relatively protected economy, with import tariffs across sectors averaging 10.4%. 2 Therefore, understanding how Brazilian labor markets adjusted to trade liberalization is useful to inform policy makers planning another wave of trade liberalization. Details about trade liberalization in Brazil can be found in Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b), but Figure 1 illustrates that: (1) trade liberalization led to large import tariff reductions; and (2) there was ample variation on how sectors were affected. For instance, sectors such as Agriculture and Mining were virtually unaffected by changes in trade policy, whereas sectors such as Apparel, Rubber, Pharmaceuticals, and Autos faced large declines in protection. A recent but prominent literature has exploited the fact that sector-specific shocks, such as those illustrated in Figure 1, can have substantially different effects on labor market outcomes across regions within a country. 3 To understand why, suppose that workers face large barriers of mobility across regions within a country. In that case, we would expect labor demand in an Apparel town to fall relative to labor demand in an Agriculture town, as tariff cuts were much steeper in Apparel compared to Agriculture. This intuitive idea was formalized and rationalized by Kovak (2013) who showed how sector-specific tariff changes can be translated into region-specific labor demand shocks, depending on differences in industry composition across locations. In short, Kovak (2013) shows that the regional labor demand shock induced by trade liberalization is given by a weighted average of sectorspecific tariff declines, where weights are given by sector-specific employment shares in that present in the formal labor market. 2 Author s calculations using 2010 UNCTAD TRAINS data and similar level of aggregation as Figure 1. The 25 th percentile of the distribution of 2010 import tariffs is 5.3% and the 75 th percentile is 13.9%, with sectors being protected with over 30% tariffs (clothing and footwear). 3 For example, see Topalova (2010), Autor et al. (2013), Kovak (2013) and Hakobyan and McLaren (2016). 2
3 Figure 1: Tariff Changes Change in ln(1+tariff), Agriculture Metals Apparel Food Processing Wood, Furniture, Peat Textiles Nonmetallic Mineral Manuf Paper, Publishing, Printing Mineral Mining Footwear, Leather Chemicals Auto, Transport, Vehicles Electric, Electronic Equip. Machinery, Equipment Plastics Other Manuf. Pharma., Perfumes, Detergents Petroleum Refining Rubber Petroleum, Gas, Coal Industries sorted based on 1991 national employment (largest on the left, and smallest on the right). region. These shocks are called Regional Tariff Reductions. Figure 2 shows how labor demand was affected across local labor markets in Brazil in response to trade liberalization by plotting the distribution of these regional tariff reductions. Darker regions are mostly specialized in sectors facing small tariff declines, such as Agriculture. In contrast, lighter regions are mostly specialized in sectors facing larger tariff declines, such as Apparel and Autos. It is important to notice that there is ample variation on how regions were affected by trade liberalization. Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) investigate how region-specific labor market outcomes have responded to these local shocks induced by the tariff cuts, tracking the evolution of these effects over time. Figure 3 shows that regions facing larger (negative) shocks induced by liberalization experienced declines in formal-sector employment relative to regions facing smaller shocks. 4 These effects gradually increased following the beginning of liberalization 4 The effects we review in this chapter can only reveal relative effects of Brazil s trade liberalization on local labor markets. This is a well-known limitation of reduced-form estimates in the presence of important general equilibrium effects, which is a common feature of all the trade and local labor markets literature. 3
4 Figure 2: Local Labor Demand Shocks Induced by Liberalization Regional Tariff Reductions Manaus Belém Fortaleza Recife Salvador 8% to 15% Brasília 4% to 8% 3% to 4% 1% to 3% -1% to 1% Curitiba São Paulo Belo Horizonte Porto Alegre Lighter regions faced larger tariff reductions, whereas darker regions faced smaller tariff reductions. Labor demand in lighter regions was negatively affected relative to darker regions. and only stabilized 15 years later. In particular, these results show that formal-sector employment adjustment in response to trade liberalization was large but very slow. Before I discuss how regional wages responded to these local labor demand shocks induced by liberalization, it is instructive to comment on how wages were expected to evolve. A model that is often employed by economists assumes that workers are not very mobile across regions in response to local economic shocks in the short run, but are increasingly mobile as time unfolds. This view is consistent with the dynamic effects illustrated in Figure 3, which shows formal-sector employment gradually responding to the local shocks induced by liberalization. Therefore, following a decline in labor demand in regions facing larger tariff cuts (relative to 4
5 Figure 3: Effects of Liberalization on Formal-Sector Regional Employment 1.5 Pre- liberaliza6on (chg. from 1986) Liberaliza6on Post- liberaliza6on (chg. from 1991) The graph shows the effect of trade-induced local labor demand shocks (from 1990 to 1995) on the change in regional (log) formal employment from 1991 to the year listed on the x-axis. Negative estimates imply larger employment declines in regions facing larger tariff reductions (relative to less affected regions). Dashed lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Pre-liberalization trends are measured relative to See Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) for details. the national average), we would expect wages to fall at impact as workers are stuck in these regions in the short run. However, as workers gradually move away from these harder-hit locations toward other locations, equilibrium wages would move up the local labor demand curve up to the point where wages are re-equalized across regions. This logic suggests that wages in harder-hit locations would decline in the short run relative to the national average, but would then gradually recover, so that long run effects on wages across regions should be negligible. Surprisingly, Figure 4 shows a very different adjustment pattern. Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) document that wages in harder-hit locations steadily decline for years and never recover. The long-run effect is three times as large as the short run effect. The effects of liberalization on wages are also very slow and persistent. These effects are in sharp contrast to the economic logic described in the previous paragraph. What explains them? 5
6 1.0 Figure 4: Effects of Liberalization on Formal-Sector Regional Earnings Pre- liberaliza6on (chg. from 1986) Liberaliza6on Post- liberaliza6on (chg. from 1991) The graph shows the effect of trade-induced local labor demand shocks (from 1990 to 1995) on the change in regional (log) formal earnings from 1991 to the year listed on the x-axis. Negative estimates imply larger employment declines in regions facing larger tariff reductions (relative to less affected regions). Dashed lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Pre-liberalization trends are measured relative to See Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) for details. Two ingredients are essential to explain the effects documented in Figures 3 and 4: slow and incomplete inter-regional labor mobility, and dynamics in labor demand. In particular, these dynamics in local labor demand are driven by: (a) Slow adjustment of capital across regions (because of slow depreciation and new investment being gradually directed toward less affected regions); and (b) slow changes in local productivity driven by agglomeration economies. Using Demographic Census data, we show that migration does not systematically respond to the trade-induced shocks, corroborating the hypothesis of imperfect inter-regional labor mobility in response to shocks. On the other hand, Figure 5 illustrates that firm exit increased very gradually following liberalization, and that investment (measured as firm entry) responded almost immediately and permanently. As suggested by Dix-Carneiro (2014), 6
7 the slow reallocation of capital led to a steady amplification of the initial local labor demand shock, making workers in harder-hit regions even less productive over time compared to those in more favorably affected regions. Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) also suggest that agglomeration economies amplify the labor market effects of trade liberalization: as firms in harder-hit regions leave the market, the productivity of remaining local firms gradually declines, further reducing local wage and employment growth. Using a simple model of local labor markets, they show that capital reallocation and agglomeration economies together can explain the quantitative scale of the wage and employment effects they document. Figure 5: Effects of Liberalization on Establishment Entry and Exit 5 Pre- liberaliza5on (chg. from 1986) Liberaliza5on Post- liberaliza5on (chg. from 1991) 4 Exit Entry Pretrend Exit Pretrend Entry - 3 The graph shows the effect of trade-induced local labor demand shocks (from 1990 to 1995) on (log) cumulative regional formal establishment entry or exit from 1991 to the year listed on the x-axis. Positive exit estimates and negative entry estimates imply larger rates of exit and smaller rates of entry in regions facing larger tariff reductions (relative to less affected regions). Dashed lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Pre-liberalization trends are measured relative to See Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) for details. The evidence reviewed so far focused on how aggregate formal-sector regional-level labor market outcomes responded to liberalization. To complement this evidence, Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017a) analyzed how individual labor market trajectories of workers responded to 7
8 the trade-induced labor demand shocks and through what margins they adjusted. Following individual workers over time using RAIS, Figure 6 shows that workers initially employed in tradable sectors in harder-hit locations tend to spend less and less time employed in the formal sector relative to workers initially employed elsewhere. Perhaps surprisingly, this effect grows over time. Although Figure 3 documents that formal employment gradually declines in regions facing steeper tariff cuts relative to the national average, we would expect that individual labor market outcomes would eventually recover as workers are able to migrate away from harder-hit regions. This suggests that individual workers did not systematically migrate away from negatively affected locations a fact that is corroborated using longitudinal data. Tradable sector workers initially employed in harder-hit locations are more likely to switch to non-tradable sectors in response to liberalization. However, this response does not offset the large losses in employment in tradable sectors. Finally, Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017a) document that the formal employment trajectories of workers initially employed in non-tradable sectors are almost as affected as those of tradable sector workers. This shows important spillovers from tradable to non-tradable sectors locally. These spillovers across sectors raise concerns about policies providing targeted compensation for workers in industries experiencing increased import competition, such as Trade Adjustment Assistance in the United States. When regional labor markets are reasonably integrated across sectors, even workers whose industry did not directly face a trade shock experience the labour market effects of that shock, and policies with industry targeting will fail to address declining earnings and employment rates for these indirectly affected workers. Figure 6 shows that workers initially employed in harder-hit regions are less and less likely to be found working in the formal sector, but it does not tell us how exactly these workers adjust. Unfortunately, the Brazilian administrative data does not have information on workers once they leave the formal sector, so it is unclear if workers who leave the formal sector are unemployed, out of the labor force, self-employed or informally employed. To have a picture of what happens to trade-displaced workers once they leave the formal sector, Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) exploit data from the Demographic Census. The advantage of using such data is that we can identify workers who are formally employed, informally employed or not employed. The disadvantage of such data is that, in contrast with the administrative data, we cannot follow workers over time. Therefore, Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017a) investigate how the structure of local labor markets responded to the trade-induced local shocks. They document that, in the medium run (1991 to 2000), non-employment and informal 8
9 Figure 6: Effects of Liberalization on Workers average months of being formally employed per year 1.0 Liberaliza6on Post- liberaliza6on The graph shows the effect of trade-induced local labor demand shocks (from 1990 to 1995) on individual cumulative average number of months formally employed per year from 1991 to the year listed on the x-axis. Negative estimates imply that workers initially in regions facing larger tariff reductions spend a smaller average share of the relevant years formally employed than workers in other regions. See Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) for details. employment increase in harder-hit locations relative to the national average. However, in the long run (1991 to 2010) non-employment does not respond to local trade shocks, but informal employment strongly increases in harder-hit regions. Together with the individual worker results, it seems that trade-displaced workers spend time unemployed or out of the labor force, but eventually find re-employment in the informal sector. Therefore, the informal sector seems to partly smooth the labor market outcomes of trade displaced workers. Without this fall-back sector, trade-displaced workers would likely have experienced even longer non-employment spells. Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017b) and Dix-Carneiro and Kovak (2017a) document that the Brazilian economy adjusted very slowly to trade liberalization. It is therefore important to understand what are the implications of such slow adjustment for the gains from trade. This 9
10 question has been addressed by Dix-Carneiro (2014) who showed that slow reallocation of workers and capital toward export oriented industries leads to substantially lower gains from trade compared to traditional models (which assume that the new equilibrium is reached instantaneously). In that paper, I estimate 11% to 26% lower gains from trade compared to a situation where reallocation occurs immediately. In Dix-Carneiro (2014), I also estimate that adjustment costs are very heterogeneous across the population. For example, older, less educated and female workers face substantially higher barriers to mobility across sectors. These workers in import-competing sectors experience substantial losses following liberalization, so governments willing to compensate the losers from trade should pay particular attention to workers with these characteristics. A recent literature has been emphasizing that globalization can have important effects beyond the labor market. 5 For instance, in the Brazilian context, Dix-Carneiro et al. (forthcoming) show that Brazilian regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. These results highlight an additional dimension of adjustment costs to trade shocks. Given that crime generates substantial externalities, these results show that the adjustment costs triggered by trade shocks can go well beyond the individuals directly affected by them. In conclusion, recent work on the Brazilian experience following the 1990 s trade liberalization episode showed that the adjustment of the labor market was slow and that not every region benefitted in the same way. As discussed above, the welfare implications of this slow adjustment can be substantial. In addition, the pattern of adjustment was more complex than conventional theories would predict, highlighting several features absent in existing models of trade and labor markets. First, to understand labor market adjustment in response to globalization, capital and labor markets must be studied simultaneously. Second, the large response of informal employment to trade liberalization (especially in the long run) highlights an additional margin of adjustment that has been under-studied in the literature. Finally, globalization can have important effects beyond the labor market, leading to important externalities within regions. 5 For example, recent studies have estimated the effects of trade shocks on crime (Iyer and Topalova, 2014), the provision of public goods (Feler and Senses, 2016), health and mortality (McManus and Schaur, 2016; Pierce and Schott, 2016), household structure (Autor et al., 2015) and political outcomes (Dippel et al., 2017; Autor et al., 2016; Che et al., 2016). 10
11 References Autor, D., D. Dorn, and G. Hanson, The Labor Market and the Marriage Market: How Adverse Employment Shocks Affect Marriage, Fertility, and Children s Living Circumstances, Mimeo.,,, and K. Majlesi, Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure, NBER Working Paper, No Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson, The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States, American Economic Review, October 2013, 103 (6), Che, Y., Y. Lu, J. Pierce, P. Schott, and Z. Tao, Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?, Mimeo. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics, Econometrica, 2014, 82 (3), and Brian K. Kovak, Margins of Labor Market Adjustment to Trade, NBER Working Paper, No and, Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics, American Economic Review, October 2017, 107 (10), , Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea, Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from The Brazilian Trade Liberalization, American Economic Journal: Applied, forthcoming. Feler, L. and M. Senses, Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods, Mimeo. Gold, R. Dippel C.and, S. Heblich, and R. Pinto, Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters, NBER Working Paper No Hakobyan, Shushanik and John McLaren, Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98 (4),
12 Iyer, Lakshmi and Petia B Topalova, Poverty and crime: evidence from rainfall and trade shocks in India, Harvard Business School BGIE Unit Working Paper Kovak, Brian K., Regional effects of trade reform: What is the correct measure of liberalization?, American Economic Review, 2013, 103 (5), McManus, C. and G. Schaur, The Effects of Import Competition on Worker Health, Journal of International Economics, 2016, 102, Pierce, J. and P. Schott, Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties, Mimeo. Topalova, Petia, Factor immobility and regional impacts of trade liberalization: Evidence on poverty from India, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2010, 2 (4),
The Effects of Trade Policy: A Global Perspective
The Effects of Trade Policy: A Global Perspective Nina Pavcnik Dartmouth College and NBER Conference on Firms, Trade and Development Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development December 6, 2018 Public
More informationLabor Market Adjustments to Trade with China: The Case of Brazil
Labor Market Adjustments to Trade with China: The Case of Brazil Peter Brummund Laura Connolly University of Alabama July 26, 2018 Abstract Many countries continue to integrate into the world economy,
More informationThe impact of Chinese import competition on the local structure of employment and wages in France
No. 57 February 218 The impact of Chinese import competition on the local structure of employment and wages in France Clément Malgouyres External Trade and Structural Policies Research Division This Rue
More informationThe Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries
The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries Nina Pavcnik I. Introduction There is a real invasion of imported products, most of them coming from China. The consequence is that we are transferring
More informationBenefits and Challenges of Trade under NAFTA: The Case of Texas
Benefits and Challenges of Trade under NAFTA: The Case of Texas AUBER Fall Conference Albuquerque New Mexico October 2017 Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The views expressed in this presentation
More informationEnforcement of Labor Regulation and the Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from Brazil
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11783 Enforcement of Labor Regulation and the Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from Brazil Gabriel Ulyssea Vladimir Ponczek AUGUST 2018 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES
More information14 The distributional implications of US trade liberalisation with China
14 The distributional implications of US trade liberalisation with China Justin R Pierce and Peter K Schott 1 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Yale School of Management The Ricardian model
More informationThe Backlash Against Globalization
The Backlash Against Globalization DEC Lecture World Bank March 13, 2018 Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg Yale University, NBER and BREAD The 21 st century political debate is not big versus small government,
More informationEconomic and Political Consequences of China s Rise: Lessons from the China Shock
Economic and Political Consequences of China s Rise: Lessons from the China Shock David Autor Ford Professor and Associate Head MIT Department of Economics Rodolfo Debenedetti Lecture Milan. 3 May 2018
More informationThe Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries * Nina Pavcnik Dartmouth College and NBER
The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries * Nina Pavcnik Dartmouth College and NBER * This paper was presented at Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy, a symposium sponsored by the Federal
More informationThe China Syndrome. Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States. David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H.
The China Syndrome Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson AER, 2013 presented by Federico Curci April 9, 2014 Autor, Dorn,
More informationResearch Report. How Does Trade Liberalization Affect Racial and Gender Identity in Employment? Evidence from PostApartheid South Africa
International Affairs Program Research Report How Does Trade Liberalization Affect Racial and Gender Identity in Employment? Evidence from PostApartheid South Africa Report Prepared by Bilge Erten Assistant
More informationInternational Trade: Lecture 5
International Trade: Lecture 5 Alexander Tarasov Higher School of Economics Fall 2016 Alexander Tarasov (Higher School of Economics) International Trade (Lecture 5) Fall 2016 1 / 24 Trade Policies Chapters
More informationPolicy brief ARE WE RECOVERING YET? JOBS AND WAGES IN CALIFORNIA OVER THE PERIOD ARINDRAJIT DUBE, PH.D. Executive Summary AUGUST 31, 2005
Policy brief ARE WE RECOVERING YET? JOBS AND WAGES IN CALIFORNIA OVER THE 2000-2005 PERIOD ARINDRAJIT DUBE, PH.D. AUGUST 31, 2005 Executive Summary This study uses household survey data and payroll data
More informationTrade Policy and Research in an Era of Free Trade
Trade Policy and Research in an Era of Free Trade 19 th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis The World Bank, Washington DC Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg Yale University, NBER and BREAD June 15,
More informationThe Changing World We Live In
The Changing World We Live In Keynote Address WTO Economic Conference Updating Trade Cooperation: An Economic View Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg Chief Economist The World Bank Group Thirty years ago At Stanford
More informationGender Inequality in U.S. Manufacturing : Evidence from the Import Competition
Gender Inequality in U.S. Manufacturing : Evidence from the Import Competition Chan Yu February 9, 2019 Most Recent Draft Here Abstract In this paper, I analyze the effect of import competition from China
More informationThe Effects of Trade Exposure on Marriage and Fertility Choices: Evidence from Brazil
The Effects of Trade Exposure on Marriage and Fertility Choices: Evidence from Brazil By Breno Braga (Urban Institute and IZA) GrOW Working Paper Series GWP-2018-15 Research Contribution Paper Produced
More informationChanges in Wage Inequality in Canada: An Interprovincial Perspective
s u m m a r y Changes in Wage Inequality in Canada: An Interprovincial Perspective Nicole M. Fortin and Thomas Lemieux t the national level, Canada, like many industrialized countries, has Aexperienced
More informationTrade, informality and employment in a lowincome country: The case of Vietnam
Trade, informality and employment in a lowincome country: The case of Vietnam Brian McCaig Wilfrid Laurier University G-24 Special Workshop on Growth and Reducing Inequality September 5, 2017 Trade and
More informationDistributional Consequences of Trade and Technology
Distributional Consequences of Trade and Technology Gordon Hanson UC San Diego and NBER Conference on Labor Market Consequences of International Trade October 2018 Political Opposition to International
More informationUS Exports and Employment. Robert C. Feenstra University of California, Davis and NBER
US Exports and Employment Robert C. Feenstra University of California, Davis and NBER National Press Club, Washington, D.C., October 4, 2018 Global Decline in Manufacturing Employment in manufacturing
More informationTrade And Inequality With Limited Labor Mobility: Theory And Evidence From China Muqun Li and Ian Coxhead APPENDIX
A-1 Trade And Inequality With Limited Labor Mobility: Theory And Evidence From China Muqun Li Ian Coxhead Contents: APPENDIX A.1. Proof of lemma 1... 1 A.2. Relative labor dem... 2 A.3. Trade balance conditions...
More informationtitle, Routledge, September 2008: 234x156:
Trade Policy, Inequality and Performance in Indian Manufacturing Kunal Sen IDPM, University of Manchester Presentation based on my book of the same title, Routledge, September 2008: 234x156: 198pp, Hb:
More informationHow does international trade affect household welfare?
BEYZA URAL MARCHAND University of Alberta, Canada How does international trade affect household welfare? Households can benefit from international trade as it lowers the prices of consumer goods Keywords:
More informationPoverty and inequality in the Manaus Free Trade Zone
Poverty and inequality in the Manaus Free Trade Zone Danielle Carusi Machado (Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil) Marta Menéndez (LEDa DIAL, Université Paris-Dauphine) Marta Reis Castilho (Universidade
More informationInternational Trade Revised: November 8, 2012 Latest version available at
International Economics and Business Dynamics Class Notes International Trade Revised: November 8, 2012 Latest version available at http://www.fperri.net/teaching/20205.htm Virtually all economists, liberal
More informationGlobalization, Gender, and the Family
Globalization, Gender, and the Family Wolfgang Keller and Hâle Utar University of Colorado, CESIfo, CEPR and NBER Bielefeld University, CESIfo This draft: April 2018 Using population register data on all
More informationWelcome. Our region Outlook for Tucson. A Look Ahead 6/6/ Breakfast with the Economists ebr.eller.arizona.edu
1 Breakfast with the Economists //1 Welcome. Paulo Goes Dean, A Look Ahead Our region Outlook for Tucson George Hammond, Ph.D. Director, Revised Arizona job data show stronger growth Particularly for Tucson
More information2 EU exports to Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand across
1 EU exports to Indonesia Malaysia and In 2017, the EU exported goods to Indonesia Malaysia and worth EUR 39.5 billion. This is equivalent to 2.1 per cent of total EU exports of goods to non-eu countries.
More informationLocal Labor Market Conditions and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization
Local Labor Market Conditions and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization Rafael Dix-Carneiro Duke University Rodrigo R. Soares EESP-FGV Gabriel Ulyssea PUC-Rio Ÿ August 28, 2015 Abstract
More informationOnline Appendix: Robustness Tests and Migration. Means
VOL. VOL NO. ISSUE EMPLOYMENT, WAGES AND VOTER TURNOUT Online Appendix: Robustness Tests and Migration Means Online Appendix Table 1 presents the summary statistics of turnout for the five types of elections
More informationGlobalization: What Did We Miss?
Globalization: What Did We Miss? Paul Krugman March 2018 Concerns about possible adverse effects from globalization aren t new. In particular, as U.S. income inequality began rising in the 1980s, many
More informationChapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution
Chapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution Chapter Organization Introduction The Specific Factors Model International Trade in the Specific Factors Model Income Distribution and the Gains from
More informationEarnings Inequality: Stylized Facts, Underlying Causes, and Policy
Earnings Inequality: Stylized Facts, Underlying Causes, and Policy Barry Hirsch W.J. Usery Chair of the American Workplace Department of Economics Andrew Young School of Policy Sciences Georgia State University
More informationInternational Trade Theory College of International Studies University of Tsukuba Hisahiro Naito
International Trade Theory College of International Studies University of Tsukuba Hisahiro Naito The specific factors model allows trade to affect income distribution as in H-O model. Assumptions of the
More informationADJUSTMENT TO TRADE POLICY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ADJUSTMENT TO TRADE POLICY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Gordon H. Hanson UC San Diego and NBER July 2009 1 INTRODUCTION How do developing countries adjust to changes in trade policy? Until the last decade,
More informationChapter 17. The Labor Market and The Distribution of Income. Microeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools NINTH EDITION
Microeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools NINTH EDITION Chapter 17 The Labor Market and The Distribution of Income A key factor in a worker s earnings is educational attainment. In 2009, the
More informationWorld Bank Employment Policy Primer March 2008 No. 9
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Employment Policy Primer March 2008 No. 9 THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON
More informationTHE RECENT TREND OF ROMANIA S INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS
THE RECENT TREND OF ROMANIA S INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS Andrei Cristian Balasan * Abstract: The article analyses the recent developments regarding the Romania trade in goods. We highlight how Romania
More informationEconomic Consequences of Trade
Economic Consequences of Trade Robert Feenstra UC Davis and NBER NBER July 10, 2018 Economic Consequences of Trade and Trade Policy Robert Feenstra UC Davis and NBER NBER July 10, 2018 Background All recent
More informationChristopher Wilson. U.S.-Mexico Trade and the New NAFTA Negotiations
Christopher Wilson U.S.-Mexico Trade and the New NAFTA Negotiations Results of NAFTA and State of Regional Integration U.S.-Mexico Trade in Goods and Services (1993-2015) Source: U.S. Census Bureau for
More informationBenefits and costs of free trade for less developed countries
Benefits and costs of free trade for less developed countries Nina PAVCNIK Trade liberalization seems to have increased growth and income in developing countries over the past thirty years, through lower
More informationIs the American Middle Class Losing Out to China and India?
Page 1 of 5 http://nyti.ms/ocntgp THE OPINION PAGES CONTRIBUTING OP-ED WRITER Is the American Middle Class Losing Out to China and India? APRIL 1, 2014 Thomas B. Edsall President Obama may be right: Free
More informationL 216/10 Official Journal of the European Union
L 216/10 Official Journal of the European Union 21.8.2007 COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) No 973/2007 of 20 August 2007 amending certain EC Regulations on specific statistical domains implementing the statistical
More informationThe Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure ] Rev. March 2, 2017 (First version November 16, 2016)
ANoteontheEffectofRisingTradeExposureonthe2016PresidentialElection [Appendix to Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Majlesi Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure ]
More informationThe Challenges of Global Trade: Globalization or Fragmentation? Dany Bahar, PhD The Brookings Institution
The Challenges of Global Trade: Globalization or Fragmentation? Dany Bahar, PhD The Brookings Institution The city of Pittsburgh, and the State of Pennsylvania, have lost one-third of their manufacturing
More informationGlobalization, Wages and Working Conditions: An Agenda for Research
Globalization, Wages and Working Conditions: An Agenda for Research Raymond Robertson Professor of Economics Director, Latin American Studies Macalester College Non-resident Fellow, Center for Global Development
More informationCan free-trade policies help to reduce gender inequalities in employment and wages?
Janneke Pieters Wageningen University, the Netherlands, and IZA, Germany Trade liberalization and gender inequality Can free-trade policies help to reduce gender inequalities in employment and wages? Keywords:
More informationOnline Appendix. Capital Account Opening and Wage Inequality. Mauricio Larrain Columbia University. October 2014
Online Appendix Capital Account Opening and Wage Inequality Mauricio Larrain Columbia University October 2014 A.1 Additional summary statistics Tables 1 and 2 in the main text report summary statistics
More informationCommentary: The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developed Countries
Commentary: The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developed Countries David Dorn, University of Zurich Address: Department of Economics, Schoenberggasse 1, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland E-mail: david.dorn@econ.uzh.ch
More informationComputerization and Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the United States 1
Computerization and Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the United States 1 Gaetano Basso (Banca d Italia), Giovanni Peri (UC Davis and NBER), Ahmed Rahman (USNA) BdI-CEPR Conference, Roma - March 16th,
More informationCommentary: The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries
Commentary: The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries David Dorn I. Income Inequality Between Countries The past three decades witnessed a dramatic expansion in global merchandise exports,
More informationDiscussion Paper Series
Discussion Paper Series CPD 11/15 International Import Competition and the Decision to Migrate: Evidence from Mexico Kaveh Majlesi and Gaia Narciso Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration Department
More informationUNION COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, FALL 2004 ECO 146 SEMINAR IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES GLOBALIZATION AND LABOR MARKETS
UNION COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, FALL 2004 ECO 146 SEMINAR IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES GLOBALIZATION AND LABOR MARKETS The Issues wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor the effects of
More informationGlobal Employment Trends for Women
December 12 Global Employment Trends for Women Executive summary International Labour Organization Geneva Global Employment Trends for Women 2012 Executive summary 1 Executive summary An analysis of five
More informationEthnic networks and trade: Intensive vs. extensive margins
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Ethnic networks and trade: Intensive vs. extensive margins Cletus C Coughlin and Howard J. Wall 13. January 2011 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30758/ MPRA
More informationAID FOR TRADE: CASE STORY
AID FOR TRADE: CASE STORY THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE CENTRE Gender sensitisation of trade policy in India 1 AID FOR TRADE CASE STORY: ITC CASE STORY ON GENDER DIMENSION OF AID FOR TRADE GENDER SENSITISATION
More informationRewriting the Rules of the Market Economy to Achieve Shared Prosperity. Joseph E. Stiglitz New York June 2016
Rewriting the Rules of the Market Economy to Achieve Shared Prosperity Joseph E. Stiglitz New York June 2016 Enormous growth in inequality Especially in US, and countries that have followed US model Multiple
More informationMidterm Exam Economics 181 PLEASE SHOW YOUR WORK! PUT YOUR NAME AND TA s NAME ON ALL PAGES 100 Points Total
NAME Midterm Exam Economics 8 PLEASE SHOW YOUR WORK! PUT YOUR NAME AND TA s NAME ON ALL PAGES 00 Points Total PART I. Short-Answer. (40 points). Please explain your work whenever possible. 8 questions
More informationIntroduction [to Imports, Exports, and Jobs]
Upjohn Press Book Chapters Upjohn Research home page 2002 Introduction [to Imports, Exports, and Jobs] Lori G. Kletzer University of California, Santa Cruz Citation Kletzer, Lori G. 2002. "Introduction."
More informationRural and Urban Migrants in India:
Rural and Urban Migrants in India: 1983-2008 Viktoria Hnatkovska and Amartya Lahiri July 2014 Abstract This paper characterizes the gross and net migration flows between rural and urban areas in India
More informationEXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Executive Summary
Executive Summary This report is an expedition into a subject area on which surprisingly little work has been conducted to date, namely the future of global migration. It is an exploration of the future,
More informationInternational Import Competition and the Decision to Migrate: Evidence from Mexico
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11346 International Import Competition and the Decision to Migrate: Evidence from Mexico Kaveh Majlesi Gaia Narciso FEBRUARY 2018 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 11346
More informationPreview. Chapter 9. The Cases for Free Trade. The Cases for Free Trade (cont.) The Political Economy of Trade Policy
Chapter 9 The Political Economy of Trade Policy Preview The cases for free trade The cases against free trade Political models of trade policy International negotiations of trade policy and the World Trade
More informationIssues in Education and Lifelong Learning: Spending, Learning Recognition, Immigrants and Visible Minorities
Issues in Education and Lifelong Learning: Spending, Learning Recognition, Immigrants and Visible Minorities Dr. Michael Bloom Executive Director, Strategic Projects, & Director, Education and Learning
More informationThe Association between Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 9436 The Association between Immigration and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States Gaetano Basso Giovanni Peri October 2015 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
More informationThe Changing Landscape for International Trade: Protectionism, Bashing China, and the American Worker
The Changing Landscape for International Trade: Protectionism, Bashing China, and the American Worker Ann Harrison, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, NBER, and CEPR Jackson Hole Symposium,
More informationHas China Lost Its Edge? Todd C. Lee Managing Director, Greater China Country Intelligence Global Insight
Has China Lost Its Edge? Todd C. Lee Managing Director, Greater China Country Intelligence Global Insight China s Export Powerhouse Guangdong Province Reported Large Scale Factory Shutdowns More than 1,000
More informationParental Response to Changes in Return to Education for Children: The Case of Mexico. Kaveh Majlesi. October 2012 PRELIMINARY-DO NOT CITE
Parental Response to Changes in Return to Education for Children: The Case of Mexico Kaveh Majlesi October 2012 PRELIMINARY-DO NOT CITE Abstract Previous research has shown that school enrollment in developing
More informationChapter One: people & demographics
Chapter One: people & demographics The composition of Alberta s population is the foundation for its post-secondary enrolment growth. The population s demographic profile determines the pressure points
More informationTrade liberalization and gender inequality
JANNEKE PIETERS Wageningen University, the Netherlands, IZA, Germany Trade liberalization and gender inequality Can free-trade policies help to reduce gender inequalities in employment and wages? Keywords:
More informationThe Effect of International Trade on Wages of Skilled and Unskilled Workers: Evidence from Brazil
The Effect of International Trade on Wages of Skilled and Unskilled Workers: Evidence from Brazil Aris Bijleveld E-mail: 336250ab@student.eur.nl June, 2011 ERASMUS UNIVERSITY ROTTERDAM Erasmus School of
More informationEx-ante study of the EU- Australia and EU-New Zealand trade and investment agreements Executive Summary
Ex-ante study of the EU- Australia and EU-New Zealand trade and investment agreements Executive Summary Multiple Framework Contract TRADE 2014/01/01 Request for services TRADE2015/C2/C16 Prepared by LSE
More informationNBER WORKING PAPER SERIES LOOKING FOR LOCAL LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF NAFTA. John McLaren Shushanik Hakobyan
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES LOOKING FOR LOCAL LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF NAFTA John McLaren Shushanik Hakobyan Working Paper 16535 http://www.nber.org/papers/w16535 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050
More informationAdjusting to Trade Liberalization: Reallocation and Labor Market Policies. by Kerem Cosar
Adjusting to Trade Liberalization: Reallocation and Labor Market Policies by Kerem Cosar Discussion by Cecilia Fieler University of Pennsylvania Cecilia Fieler () Adjusting to Trade Liberalization May
More informationRural and Urban Migrants in India:
Rural and Urban Migrants in India: 1983 2008 Viktoria Hnatkovska and Amartya Lahiri This paper characterizes the gross and net migration flows between rural and urban areas in India during the period 1983
More informationThere is a seemingly widespread view that inequality should not be a concern
Chapter 11 Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Do Poor Countries Need to Worry about Inequality? Martin Ravallion There is a seemingly widespread view that inequality should not be a concern in countries
More informationAre married immigrant women secondary workers? Patterns of labor market assimilation for married immigrant women are similar to those for men
Ana Ferrer University of Waterloo, Canada Are married immigrant women secondary workers? Patterns of labor market assimilation for married immigrant women are similar to those for men Keywords: skilled
More informationHOW ECONOMIES GROW AND DEVELOP Macroeconomics In Context (Goodwin, et al.)
Chapter 17 HOW ECONOMIES GROW AND DEVELOP Macroeconomics In Context (Goodwin, et al.) Chapter Overview This chapter presents material on economic growth, such as the theory behind it, how it is calculated,
More informationTHE IMPACT OF RISING TRADE ON WAGE INEQUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON U.S.-CHINA TRADE FROM
Clemson University TigerPrints All Theses Theses 5-2013 THE IMPACT OF RISING TRADE ON WAGE INEQUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON U.S.-CHINA TRADE FROM 2000-2010 Jie Chen Clemson University, jchen8@clemson.edu
More informationThe gendered labor market impacts of trade liberalization: evidence from Brazil * Isis Gaddis The World Bank
The gendered labor market impacts of trade liberalization: evidence from Brazil * Isis Gaddis The World Bank Janneke Pieters ** Wageningen University and IZA Abstract This paper investigates the impact
More informationITC by Country Report
ITC by Country Report Iraq 05/12/2014 ITC by country - Iraq 1 Table of Contents 1. Country / Territory Brief 2. People and Economy 2.1 People 2.2 Economy 3. Trade Performance 3.1 General Trade Performance
More informationLEFT BEHIND: WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES IN A CHANGING LOS ANGELES. Revised September 27, A Publication of the California Budget Project
S P E C I A L R E P O R T LEFT BEHIND: WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES IN A CHANGING LOS ANGELES Revised September 27, 2006 A Publication of the Budget Project Acknowledgments Alissa Anderson Garcia prepared
More informationEmployment Sector Employment Working Paper No. 55
Employment Sector Employment Working Paper No. 55 2010 The Impact of Crisis-related Changes in Trade Flows on Employment, Incomes, Regional and Sectoral Development in Brazil Scott McDonald Marion Jansen
More informationLabor Supply at the Extensive and Intensive Margins: The EITC, Welfare and Hours Worked
Labor Supply at the Extensive and Intensive Margins: The EITC, Welfare and Hours Worked Bruce D. Meyer * Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University and NBER January
More informationInclusive growth and development founded on decent work for all
Inclusive growth and development founded on decent work for all Statement by Mr Guy Ryder, Director-General International Labour Organization International Monetary and Financial Committee Washington D.C.,
More informationLDC Urban Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges and Opportunities. Matthew E. Kahn USC and NBER
LDC Urban Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges and Opportunities Matthew E. Kahn USC and NBER kahnme@usc.edu 1 Introduction Urbanization should bring about poverty reduction through raising economic opportunities
More informationThe Poor in the Indian Labour Force in the 1990s. Working Paper No. 128
CDE September, 2004 The Poor in the Indian Labour Force in the 1990s K. SUNDARAM Email: sundaram@econdse.org SURESH D. TENDULKAR Email: suresh@econdse.org Delhi School of Economics Working Paper No. 128
More informationRecent trade liberalization efforts, including the North American Free Trade Agreement
Industries important in nonmetro areas, such as agriculture, food processing, and tobacco products, have benefited from increasingly open markets and increased exports. However, the textile and apparel
More informationChina and the Dutch economy
Wim Suyker CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Henri L.F. de Groot CPB, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute Presentations at the European Commission (DG Trade) and at the
More informationThree papers on Quality of Jobs and Quality of Labor
Three papers on Quality of Jobs and Quality of Labor Comments from David S. Kaplan Inter-American Development Bank ABCDE conference in Mexico City June 15, 2015 3 papers, 3 very different topics Some comment
More informationTrade Liberalization and the Great Labor Reallocation
Trade Liberalization and the Great Labor Reallocation Yuan Zi December, 2016 JOB MARKET PAPER Please click HERE for the most recent version Abstract The extent to which a country can benefit from trade
More informationNon-tariff Measures in the Lao People s Democratic Republic
Chapter 6 Non-tariff Measures in the Lao People s Democratic Republic Amphaphone Sayasenh National Economic Research Institute, Lao People s Democratic Republic April 2016 This chapter should be cited
More informationLabor market consequences of trade openness and competition in foreign markets
Labor market consequences of trade openness and competition in foreign markets Daniel Chiquiar Enrique Covarrubias Alejandrina Salcedo Banco de México January 2016 We analyze the labor market consequences
More informationEurasian Economic Union: prospects and challenges
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at Forum Eurasian Economic Union Vienna, November 14, 217 Eurasian Economic
More information5A. Wage Structures in the Electronics Industry. Benjamin A. Campbell and Vincent M. Valvano
5A.1 Introduction 5A. Wage Structures in the Electronics Industry Benjamin A. Campbell and Vincent M. Valvano Over the past 2 years, wage inequality in the U.S. economy has increased rapidly. In this chapter,
More informationRace and Economic Opportunity in the United States
THE EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY PROJECT Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren Racial disparities in income and other outcomes are among the most visible and persistent
More informationInternational Economics Day 2. Douglas J Young Professor Emeritus MSU
International Economics Day 2 Douglas J Young Professor Emeritus MSU djyoung@montana.edu Goals/Schedule 1. How does International Trade affect Jobs, Wages and the Cost of Living? 2. How Do Trade Barriers
More informationProductivity, Output, and Unemployment in the Short Run. Productivity, Output, and Unemployment in the Short Run
Technological Progress, Wages, and Unemployment 1 Technological Progress, Wages, and Unemployment There are optimistic and pessimistic views of technological progress. Technological unemployment a concept
More information