Other End Use Market Segment Outlook Rubber Gloves
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1 4/23/217 Other End Use Market Segment Outlook Rubber Gloves IISRP AGM 217 Taipei, Taiwan No Dock Moung Senior Consultant ICIS Analytics & Consulting ICIS is part of RELX Group RELX is the world-leading provider of information solutions for professional customers across industries Reed Business Information provides data, analytics and insight that enable customers to evaluate and manage risks, and develop market intelligence, supporting more confident decisions, improved economic outcomes, and enhanced operational efficiency. ICIS is the world's largest petrochemical market information provider, and has fast-growing energy and fertilizer coverage. Its aim is to give companies in global commodities markets a competitive advantage by delivering trusted pricing data, high-value news, analysis and independent consulting. 1
2 4/23/217 ICIS - Global Presence, Local Insight More than 3 years of industry insight and data Over 1, industry customers Weekly contact with thousands of market participants Over 9,2 price assessments in 1,2 reports covering 18 commodities 7+ global employees Customers include virtually every major chemical company 17,+ annual news stories ICIS has Coverage Along the Entire Value Chain Price Assessments Market News Data Analysis and Short-Term Supply & Demand Consulting and Long-Term Supply & Demand Dashboard Price reports 24 hour real-time news Single client bespoke consultancy Margin reports Market insight & analysis Long term price forecast Price alerts Training & conferences Plant capacities, outputs & shutdowns Price indices Historical supply & demand database Forecast supply & demand database In the Industry. On the ground. Powered by Data. Driven by Insight. 2
3 4/23/217 Agenda Rubber Gloves Demand Raw Materials Demand & Supply Summary 5 Rubber Gloves Demand 3
4 4/23/217 Demand increased by nearly 4-folds in 2-215, an despite changes and North together account for the majority share of the market. Billion pieces Billion Pieces World Total Rubber Gloves Demand N S & C F. USSR Africa Middle East NE Asia Asia and Pacific >155 billion pieces increase in 16 years, over 4-folds increase World Total Rubber Gloves Demand The rubber gloves industry is one of the most dynamic of the rubber industries, CAGR 9.3%, Total However, it is not recession proof. Growth Rates 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% North 45% N 35% Asia and Pacific 6% Asia and Pacific 5% Regional Shares, 2 NE Asia 9% North East Asia 4% Africa 2% Middle East 1% Regional Shares, 216 Middle East Africa 3% 3% S & C 13% South & Central 6% Former USSR 2% F. USSR 3% 35% 28% Dramatic Regional Transformation In 21, North and together accounted for 8% of the total demand In 216, the share decreased to 61%, losing to all other regions South & Central made the most gains, increasing to 13% from 6% To understand the dynamism of the industry is to understand the changes that have taken place to the population and wealth of the world within the context of the publicly acknowledged awareness and need for protection against communicable diseases. Population is the potential. Millions 7,5 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 There are 282 million people in the Former USSR Asia & Pacific has the largest population: 1.6 billion India joins China in the 1. billion club South & Central surpasses North : 425 million vs 424 million World population rises above 6. billion Asia & Pacific s populations tops 2. billion There are 282 million people in the Former USSR World population rises above 7. billion Africa joins NE Asia and Asia & Pacific in the 1. billion Club There are now more 5 million people in South & Central 4,
5 4/23/217 Wealth is the ability. Absolute wealth has more than doubled in , however the relative wealth has been lagging behind, increasing by less than 1.5 times. 8 GDP/K of the world will be US$1,293 11, GDP, US$ Trillion, Constant World GDP/K is US$7,79 in 199 World GDP/K shrinks for the first of 3 times in The wealth of the world reaches US$4. trillion for the first time. World ushers in the 3 rd millennium with GDP/K increasing above US$8, Following year, the absolute wealth of the world hits the US$5. trillion mark. GDP/K of the world decreases by US$275 Absolute wealth of the world shrinks. US$7. trillion mark is breached. 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, GDP per Capita, US$, Constant , World GDP per Capita 9 The real story of world population growth has been about the rise of Africa, and the continuation of expansion in Asia. North South & Central Africa: Population expands by 85% in ,164 Former USSR 284 Middle East Asia & Pacific: 5% growth = 792 million 2,377 North East Asia 1,619 1,37 NE Asia: Comparatively slower rate of growth, but still adds 248 million Top = 216 Bottom = Africa 1,585 Asia & Pacific 1 5
6 4/23/217 and North now share the absolute wealth space with North East Asia, but not in relative terms. Absolute Wealth, US$, Trillion North North East Asia 16.6 North 4,862 32,25 GDP/K, US$ Top = 216 Bottom = South & Central Former USSR Middle East Africa 7.1 Asia & Pacific Top = 216 Bottom = 199 8,53 South & Central Former Middle East USSR 7,462 1,753 1,259 Asia & Pacific 1,964 3,4 Africa North East Asia Asia and Pacific increased its absolute wealth by more than 3.5 times NE Asia has added an extra US$1.4 trillion, in and North still accounts for the majority share of the absolute wealth (53% in 216). The GDP/K of the most populous regions are disproportionately small Africa s GDP/K is US$1,964, while that of the Asia and Pacific is US$3,4 11 Growing population (the number of potential consumers) and wealth (the ability to buy the goods) came together and drove the rubber gloves industry. 25 GDP K/Rubber Gloves Consumption per Person/Year 2 Pieces per Person/Year US$/Person 12 6
7 4/23/217 But, what now? Will the demand continue to grow, and where will it come from? Number of Vehicles per Person Total Vehicles in Use, Japan, Total Vehicles in Use, Japan, % 65 45% 6 5 4% 55 35% 4 3% 5 25% % % 35 1% 1 5% 3 % 25-5% , 25, 3, 35, 4, 45, 5, Vehicles in Use Growth Rates GDP per Capita Percentage Number of Vehicles per Person Index Passenger Car Sales Japan Germany France Yes, but there is an upper limit neither population or wealth growth could breach example from an older, established industry Japan measured against population, and against wealth both show a ceiling Cross-sectional example Japan, France and Germany all show that an upper limit was reached in the early 199s. 13 North North East Asia Rubber Gloves/Person/Year N Rubber Gloves/Person/Year S & C F. USSR Middle East Chart Title NE Asia Africa Asia and Pacific Afica & Asia and Pacific There are signs of rubber gloves demand coming close to hitting a ceiling in North and Trend of rubber glove demand per person has more-or-less been flat since the late-2. Gloves/Person/Pieces Rubber Gloves Consumption per Person Regional 216 [X VALUE] 18 [BUBBLE SIZE] [X VALUE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [X VALUE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [X VALUE] [X VALUE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [X VALUE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [X VALUE] [X VALUE] [X VALUE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [BUBBLE SIZE] [BUBBLE SIZE] All other regions are showing firming increasing trend, except for the Former USSR. The gap between the fastest growing and largest populated regions and the North and are huge, representing 14 space for potential growth of the regions. 7
8 4/23/217 Some growth scenarios built around the gloves/person/year of regions and constant growth: 216 gloves data, population, and the assumption that the world consumption will reach one of the higher numbers. Billion Pieces World - Rubber Gloves Demand Scenarios North Constant, Most Likely Scenarios 9.3% Extrapolation Pieces World - Rubber/Person/Year y = 7.38x.4546 R² = By 23, the GDP/K gap between the Africa and Asia and North and will remain substantial. In fact, GDP/K of North East Asia will be lower than s in 216. This makes the and North scenario being achieved highly unlikely within the next fourteen years US$ 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Regional GDP per Capita, 23 North South & Central Former USSR Africa Middle East North East Asia -1, Asia & Pacific 15 The most likely scenarios are the Extrapolate and the 9.3%, and for the demand to fall within the range between the two. Billion Pieces GAP is the difference between the 9.9% (High) and Extrapolate (Low) scenarios. Rubber Gloves World - Two Scenarios, Pieces GAP 9.3% Extrapolate GAP, Billion Pieces 16 8
9 4/23/217 Raw Materials Demand & Supply Demand for NBR Latex has been growing rapidly, and the future appears bright. Rubber Gloves World - Rubbers Demand Rubber Gloves World - Total Rubber Weight ' Tonnes It is assumed that the weight of the gloves will continually decrease through to GAP, ' Tonnes ' Tonnes Total, ' Tonnes ' Tonnes GAP 9.9% Extrapolate Rubber Gloves World NBR Latex Demand Constant share between natural rubber and NBR has been assumed for NBR Latex NR Latex Total
10 4/23/217 The supply of natural rubber latex is highly concentrated, with Thailand accounting for 88% of it in 215. However, the gloves industry is adequately supplied with natural rubber latex: it took up only 53% of the total exports. ' Tonnes NR Latex Exports - Leading Countries Guatemala Liberia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Others NR Latex Exports - Leading Countries, 215 Malaysia 3% Liberia % Guatemala 3% Others 1% Vietnam 5% Thailand 88% Guatemala, Liberia, Malaysia and Vietnam are the other significant sources of Latex However, the Latex from Guatemala and Liberia are nearly all consumed outside Asia Malaysia and Vietnam, the majority of the exports are going to the non-rubber gloves producing countries. 19 There are six countries with NBR latex capacity, all in Asia, but it is more evenly distributed, with Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan the leading producers. 16 China 56 South Korea Japan Malaysia 2% NBR Latex Capacity , Tonnes South Korea 31% Thailand 44 Taiwan 173 Japan 7% China 9% Malaysia Thailand 7% Taiwan 26% *Volumes in tonnes Copyright 216 ICIS Private & Confidential 1
11 4/23/217 There is sufficient NBR latex capacity at present, but additional capacity will be required from 222 onwards. By 225, incremental demand is expected be large enough to require additional 2 world scale plants. ' Tonnes Rubber Gloves World NBR Latex Market Situation Capacity Gloves Consumption Operating Rate Operating Rates, % ' Tonnes Rubber Gloves World NBR Latex Demand and Supply Confirmed world NBR latex capacity 218, 753, tonnes NBR Latex Range Capacity Average 2 World scale plant (9, tonnes) requirements 6 21 Summary 11
12 4/23/217 Summary The rubber gloves industry is a dynamic one, having expanded at CAGR 9.3% in The key demand drivers are growing population, and increasing wealth or GDP/K At present and in the recent past, the demand has been driven by and North Going forward, the potential lies with Asia, especially Asia and Pacific NBR latex has been winning market share of the raw material supplies Of course, new investments will be needed over the medium-to-longer term in NBR latex capacity 23 THANK YOU Contact us No Dock Moung Senior Consultant ICIS Analytics & Consulting Tel: (DID) dockmoung.no@icis.com ICIS Consulting: Powered by Data. Driven by Insight. 12
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