POPULATION GROWTH, STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION IN SAUDI ARABIA

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1 Humanities and Social Sciences Review, CDROM. ISSN: :: 1(4):33 46 (2012) Copyright c 2012 by UniversityPublications.net POPULATION GROWTH, STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION IN SAUDI ARABIA Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan, Asharaf Abdul Salam and Mohamed A. Mouselhy King Saud University, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula, is going through changes on its demographic front; not only on fertility but also on growth, structure and distribution. Still, fertility and reproduction are the most prioritized aspect of demography not only because of the young population but also of the pronatalist population policy. Demographic achievements of Saudi Arabia are remarkable in terms of mortality rates and life expectancy at birth. A rapid growth, especially of expatriate population, and urbanization are considered as demographic challenges. Keeping these challenges in mind, an attempt at exploring growth, structure and distribution is made in this paper. Attempts are made to compare native and expatriate population, male and female population and various age groups. Census data was made use for this analysis. National Census of 1974, 1992, 2004 and 2010 were used. A significant growth of population especially of expatriate population combined with changes in age structure and geographic distribution was noted. Age structure of native population shows reducing childhood population and subsequent increasing adult and old aged population whereas that of expatriate population shows a increasing adult population. Changes in Saudi Arabian demography are indicative of transitions in birth and death rates. It is time for the country to adopt population based information driven development planning. Keywords: Population growth, Demographic transition, Demographic lag, High fertility, Population policy, Age structure. Introduction Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula is going through changes on its demographic front; not only on fertility (Khraif, 2001) but also on growth (Collemore, 2003; Khraif, 2007), transition (Courbage, 1995), distribution (Babay, 2004; Khraif, 2000; Fouad and AlBader, 1995; AlKhalifeh, 1993; Sly and Serow, 1993; Samman, 1985) and ageing (Asharaf and Shekteria, 2007; Sufian, 1993). Population growth in the Kingdom was of concern (Collymore, 2003) and has implications on age structures and expatriate proportion and increasing pressure on social sectors education, labor force and women's participation in employment. This growth has reasons namely the pronatalist policies encouraged by the Kingdom through the ban on import of contraceptives implemented in 1975 and declaration of birth control in any form and under any circumstance as contrary to the faith of Islam (Winckler, 1997). In other words, it is the situation of high fertility and declining mortality (Omran and Roudi, 1993) that Saudi Arabian population experience at present explains the high growth situation. An overwhelmingly young population with a median age of 22.9 years for males and 19.4 years for females (Library of Congress, 2006), having a higher birth rate but a lower death rate, lower infant mortality and higher levels of life 33

2 34 Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan et al. expectancy are characteristics of growing population of the Kingdom. Such a change in the demography, in birth and death rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates was started during 1970s. Declining birth rates along social transformation was evidenced. For example, a study at a region of Saudi Arabia (AlNasser and Bamgboye, 1992) revealed higher fertility levels but indicated decreasing parity along increasing education and increasing age at marriage. Al Mazrou et al. (1995) brought forth low levels of marriages before 18 years; a higher proportion of marriage of males above 30 years and females between 2024 years; an increasing widowhood rate along with increasing age and a large proportion of marriages between first cousins especially among illiterate and rural females, from his analysis of age at marriage, consanguinity, divorces and widowhood by using data of Saudi National Child Health Survey. The current less significant fertility decline (Courbage, 1995) in Saudi Arabia shows its less favorable position for transition at par with female education and infant mortality rates. Improved female education or reduced family income due to lowered prices of petroleum exports have not imparted upon fertility levels. This demographic lag difference from theoreticalactualdemographic dynamics featuring population size and growth, fertility, mortality, status of women and contraceptive use has base on per capita income and rapid economic growth (Sufian, 1993). High fertility in Saudi Arabia was emphasized by Freedman (1995) and Jacobson (1994) as well. Reproductive behavior in the Kingdom was not much researched with national samples even though regional small sample studies were conducted: the results of such studies brought contradictions. Fertility levels in the Kingdom has been declining recently, showing signs of fertility transition (Khraif, 2001) from a high of about 7 to a low of about 4.5 during the last 15 years caused due to (i) delay in marriage and resultant child bearing process along with shift in educational attainment (ii) household characteristics child death and urban residence and (iii) spatial distribution of development. Contraceptive use had no significant effect on birth control but had an effect on birth spacing. Variables namely son preference, child death, type of family and geographic location were significant determinants of fertility. These findings were again emphasized by Khraif, (2009) in a northern desert of the Kingdom that (i) higher average number of children ever born (ii) polygamous marriages and (iii) woman s characteristics and familial attributes were related to fertility behavior. Fertility concept was of debate in Saudi Arabia during the 90s that it had a positive relation with husband's education (AlObaidi, 1995), as against the negative relation revealed by AlOthaibi (1994). A positive relation between fertility and household economy was revealed by AlIsawi (1994).

3 Population Growth, Structure and Distribution in Saudi Arabia 35 The Kingdom has an overwhelmingly young population with a median age of 22.9 years for males and 19.4 years for females (Library of Congress, 2006) due to higher birth rate but lower death rate and lower infant mortality; showing higher levels of life expectancy. A high proportion of Arab (90%) and the remaining NonArab (AfroAsian) population were characteristics of Saudi Arabian population. Parasuraman (2002) showed that Saudi Arabia had higher sex ratio (127 males per 100 females), which was comparable with that of Qatar (191) and Kuwait (138). Sex ratio in Saudi Arabia was analyzed along 1974 and 1992 censuses, revealing a high male dominance, affected by migration, wars and differential mortality (Fouad and AlBader, 1994). Urbanization was characteristic of Saudi Arabia showing a rise in percentage living in urban area from 46 percent in 1974 to 81 percent in 2004: variations from one administrative area to another; increase in number of cities; the eastwest corridor of urban growth and differential growth rates (Khraif, 2007). Residential mobility in the Kingdom during the last three decades were, majorly, long distant movements related to buying/building a home, increase in family size or capability to afford a better dwelling apart from reasons namely high rent, evacuation by owner or inadequate services (Khraif, 1994). These moves were classified as (i) adjustment (ii) induced or (iii) forced. Thus Khraif (2007) recommended to (i) encourage growth of small cities (ii) create unified data base of urbanization in the Kingdom (iii) make national strategies action oriented and timely and (iv) explore factors behind variations in growth rates. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the largest country in Western Asia by land area; constituting bulk of the Arabian Peninsula and the secondlargest in the Arab World. Saudi Arabia is one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world, where population settled, as a result of rapid economic and urban growth, distributed at 13 provinces. Objectives An analysis of the raw data was made here to indicate (i) changes in size, structure and distribution over the period of , (ii) differences in native and expatriate populations on size, growth and structure and (iii) distribution of population across geographical area regions. Methodology Four censuses conducted in the Kingdom were of 1974, 1992, 2004 and Only the preliminary results of 2010 Census have been published. It offers data on population size and age structure by total population, Saudi Arabian native population and expatriate population. Results and Discussion Population of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia grew from a mere 6,167,308 in 1974 (AlGhabbani, 2008) to 27,136,977 by 2010 along technological advances, improvement in infrastructure and immigration flows. The period witnessed changes in age structure and sex composition. While the national population went through significant changes in demographic front, the expatriate population remained more or less similar in terms of demographic characteristics.

4 36 Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan et al. A. Population Growth Growth of population in the Kingdom during was 340 percentages, which varied across geographic localities, various periods and ratio of expatriate to native. population in Saudi Arabia, both native and expatriate, grew fast with an overwhelmingly young population (Library of Congress, 2006; Collymore, 2003). Table 1. Population Growth in Saudi Arabia over the Period. Saudi National Annual growth rate (7492) 3.9 Percentage change (7492) Annual growth rate (9204) Percentage change (9204) 34.3 Annual growth rate (0410) Percentage change (0410) 13.2 Expatriates per 1000 nationals Increase Increase Increase Expatriate Persons Census shows a scenario between 1974, 1992, 2004 and 2010 that the 37 year period made an annual growth rate of 5.0 during (higher for males 5.3 than for females 4.6); during (higher for females % than males %) and 3.2 during (higher for males 3.7% than females %). Annual growth rate was observed to vary in case of both national and expatriate population for these periods (3.9, and for national respectively as against 9.5, and 5.6 respectively for expatriate population). A noticeably low annual growth rate of expatriate females was noted (2.6 percent) during While the percentage growth during the intercensal period of was (165.0 for males and for females); the same during was 33.8 (3 for males and 35.5 for females), and that of was 19.7 (2 for males and 15.4 for females). These figures were incomparable as the duration varied from 12 years to 6 years. Still, it indicated that there was higher growth during (doubling percentage growth). Major factor that made this increase was expatriate population (37.0; 38.9 for males and 32.7 for females). This current trend disagrees with the statement "there are evidences that annual growth rate of population has been declining in Saudi Arabia since 2000" (CIA World Fact book, 2011). Estimates showed that the population of Saudi Arabia shall increase to 40 million in 2025 and to 60 million in 2050 (United Nations, 2002). Saudi Arabia's population growth rate was highest in the world, during 2002 to 2008, which registered a fivefold increase. This growth affected population density equation creating pressure on housing, healthcare, education, transport and the environment. Even though the intercensal period of witnessed a decline in the ratio of expatriate to native population from 377 to 372 (reduction of 5 persons 10 among males but an increase of 3 among females); intercensal period witnessed a high increase in the ratio from 372 to 451 (an increase of 108 males and 44 females).

5 Population Growth, Structure and Distribution in Saudi Arabia 37 B. Population Structure Growth affects structure as it relates to cohorts of children, youths, adults and elderly in the context of demographic transition. Saudi Arabia is a largely immigrant country that attract expatriate labor, exhibits a structure different from theoretically explained. The real picture shall be brought out while distinguishing native from expatriate population. a. Population Changes were observed during the intercensal periods and Decline in childhood proportion (from 46.7% to 4% to 34.3%), a slight increase in adults (from 47.0% to 54.2% to 6%) and a small change in old aged (6.3%, 4.0% and 4.2%). There was a shift in age structure, slowly but steadily. Age Group * * Age group 6569 refers 65 years and above Table 2. Age Sex Distribution of population Age pyramids were not indicative. side agrees the theoretical path whereas male side disagrees. A possible explanation was the influx of immigrants, who were mainly males of working age (2060 years); a large share of them lives as single without their families.

6 38 Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan et al Figure 1. Age pyramid of total population. b. Native Population The native Saudi population, who were born, brought up and continues living as citizens of the country follows a theoretical demographic path. A higher difference in age composition was seen that the percent of children declined from 46.7 (1974) and 49.2 (1992) to 39.9 percent (2004); higher among males (44.6 to 49.4 to 39.5) than females (49.0 to 49.0 to 40.3 percent). But the adult population (1559 years) increased noticeably from 30.1 (1974) to 45.7 (1992) to 55.0 percent (2004): higher among males during (44.9 to 55.4 percent; 10.5 points) than females (46.6 to 54.7; 8.1 points). Old aged population remained same during both the periods (5.1 percent): while that of males declined from 5.7 to 5.1; females increased from 4.4 to 5.0 percent). The childhood proportion was low during Table 3. Age Sex Distribution of Native Population. Age Group *

7 Population Growth, Structure and Distribution in Saudi Arabia * Age group 6569 refers 65 years and above The pyramid of 1974 and 1992 were expansive while that of 2004 was constrictive in shape Figure 2. Age pyramid of native population. c. Expatriate Population Expatriates formed onethird of Saudi Arabia's total population; majority of whom lived as single persons. As their families lived back in their native countries elsewhere, efforts at enumerations and explorations of demographics seemed arduous. Still, there were efforts and coordination, at least on basic characteristics. As shown in Table 1, there were 8,429,401 expatriates in Saudi Arabia (as of 2010 census), whose sex ratio was 238 (males per 100 females). Expatriates increased from a low of 791,105 in 1974 (sex ratio of 201) to 6,150,922 in 2004 (sex ratio of 227). Percentage distribution by broad ages remained more or less equal during all the census years except in case of old aged (an increase from 1.3% to % was noted between 1992 and 2004).

8 40 Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan et al. Age Group Table 4. Age Sex Distribution of Expatriate Population. 1974* * Age group 6569 refers 65 years and above Age pyramids shows the trend of bulged centre, narrow base and narrow apex; especially high in case of males during all the three censuses Figure 3. Age pyramid of expatriate population.

9 Population Growth, Structure and Distribution in Saudi Arabia 41 C. Sex Ratio Sex ratio was on a decline in Saudi Arabia, attributed to change in environmental factors and reproductive health (Babay, 2004). Saudi Arabia along with neighboring countries namely Qatar and Kuwait tops in terms of sex ratio (Parasuraman, 2002), which were influenced by employment oriented immigration. Difference in sex ratio between the native and expatriate population during these periods were indicative. While native population show a balanced sex ratio (between 100 and ), expatriate population show an imbalanced sex ratio (between 202 and 238) that influenced the sex ratio of overall population. Table 5. Sex ratio of population according to various censuses. Age Group Persons Census Native Expatriate D. Distribution by Geographic Location During the census period of 1992, the three regions (Riyadh, Makkah and Eastern Region) took a share of 64.2 percent of population (59.35 of natives and 77.2% of expatriates). The corresponding proportions during 2004 and 2010 were 64.5 (59.7 in case of natives and 77.3 percent in case of expatriates) and 65.6 (60.5% of natives and 77.0 % of expatriates); showing a slow pace of urbanization. Not only has the proportional distribution of native population but also of expatriate population grown in all regions except expatriates in Riyadh and Madina.

10 42 Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan et al. Regions Riyadh Makkah Madina Al Qassem Eastern region Aseer Tabouk Hail Northern border Jazan Najran Baha Jouf Table 6. Proportional distribution of population by regions. Natives Expatriate Over the Census years population grew from 6 million (1974) to 27 million in 2010; a growth of 303 percentage. Growth during the period of was 15.2%; was 33.8 percentage while that for was 19.7 percentage. Annual growth rate showed a hike during as compared to the previous census period. Regions, namely Riyadh, Makah, Al Qassem, Eastern Region, Northern Border, Najran and Jouf reported a hike in annual growth rate. Tabouk reported a reduction in annual growth rate. During , native Saudi grew in numbers; higher in Riyadh, Tabouk, Najran and Jouf. But during , expatriate population grew in all regions. Table 7. Population growth by regions. Regions Annual growth rate 7492 Riyadh Makah Medina Al Qassem Eastern regi Aseer Tabouk Hail Northern bo Jazan Najran Baha Jouf Annual growth rate (9204) Annual Growth rate (0410) Percentage Growth (7492) Percentage Growth (9204) Percentage Growth (0410)

11 Population Growth, Structure and Distribution in Saudi Arabia 43 Native Riyadh Makah Medina Al Qassem Eastern regi Aseer Tabouk Hail Northern bo Jazan Najran Baha Jouf Expatriate Riyadh Makah Medina Al Qassem Eastern regi Aseer Tabouk Hail Northern bo Jazan Najran Baha Jouf E. Native Expatriate Ratio Ratio of expatriate to native a national concern shows an increasing trend over the survey years and the census years. Table 8. Expatriates for every 1000 nationals by regions. Riyadh Makkah Medina Al Qassem Eastern region Aseer Tabouk Hail Northern border Jazan Najran Baha Jouf Percent Increase (7492) Percent Increase (9204) Percent increase (0410)

12 44 Majed Sultan Abu Ashwan et al. Conclusions Major source of national level demographic statistics in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is Census with its coverage and operational methodologies. Census has not been stabilized in the Kingdom even though it started on 1962/63. Population grew noticeably, over a period due to increase in expatriates. Even though policies favoring nationalization and reducing expatriates are in effect, the expatriate count increases as there are increased demands from the labor market and economic sector. Adoption of more effective strategies that encourage family living of expatriates shall pave way for balanced population in terms of structure and community living. Population change is evident in tune with the global scenario showing a pace towards demographic transition especially declining birth rates. Lowered proportion of children in the population creates an increase in proportion of advanced ages. There is constriction of age structure. Sex ratio of the Kingdom favors males, due to higher number of adult male expatriates. Native population has equal number of males and females, showing a balance. A high urbanization resulted from regional development strategies. Emerging regions in the Kingdom has population concentration. National level efforts to redistribute population shall go along with regional development efforts. References 1. AlGabbani, M. (2008.) Aging population in Saudi Arabia: Changes and Challenges. Paper presented at International Geographic Conference held in Tunis on 15 Aug. 2. AlIsawi, (1994). Levels of fertility in Dammam: A study in Population Geography. Fifth Geographic Symposium, King Saud University 2628 April. 3. AlKhalifeh AH (1993). Population spatial distribution policies in Saudi Arabia. In United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (Ed.), Population Spatial Distribution. Amman ESCWA. 4. AlMazrou YY, Khan MU, Aziz KM (1997) Determinants of under five mortality in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Medical Journal Vol 18, No. 1: AlMazrou YY, Farid SM and Khan MU. (1995) Changing marriage age and Consanguineous marriage in Saud s. Annals of Saudi Medicine. Vol 15, No. 5: AlMazrou Y and Farid S (1993). Reproductive Patterns and Child Survival in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh Ministry of Health Saudi Arabia and Executive Board of Council of Health Ministers of GCC States. 7. AlNadedh NN (1999). The effect of sociodemographic variables on child spacing in rural Saudi Arabia. Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal. Vol. 5 No. 1: AlNasser AN and Bamgboye, EA(1992). Estimates of fertility levels in a rural community of Saudi Arabia. International journal of Fertility. 37 (1): AlObaidi, I. (1995) Some Social and Economic Determinants of levels of fertility of Saudi families in gthe city of Riyad (Arab), Arab Journal of Humanities 50: AlOthaibi, M. (1994) The effects of some socioeconomic factors on the number of children in the Saudi family in Riyadh city. Journal of the Social Sciences. 22 (1): AndrzejKapiszewski (2006) Arab versus Asian Migrant Workers in the GCC Countries, United Nations Expert Group Meeting On International Migration and Development in the Arab Region, Beirut, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat. 12. Asharaf A. and Alshekteria, AA. (2008). Population and Health in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Preliminary Examination, Middle East Journal of Age and Ageing, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp 2639.

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