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1 OLESIA KOZLOVA JUNIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE (INET) AND PHD STUDENT (UNH) 10 Garrison Ave, Phone: (609) Home Page: EDUCATION Ph.D. in Economics, with Cognate in College Teaching, Expected defense March 2014, GPA 3.9 Dissertation: Imperfect Knowledge and Forward-Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: Does Risk Matter? M.A. in Economics,, May 2009, GPA 3.9 B.S. in Economics, National Technical University of Ukraine, May 2008, GPA 4.0 Certificate in Macroeconomics, University of Copenhagen, August 2012 Summer School in Cointegrated VAR: Methodology and Application Certificate, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, June rd Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar, ABC Certificate, CEEL Program at University of Trento, July th Summer School in Macroeconomics and Financial Crisis TEACHING AND RESEARCH INTERESTS International Finance and Trade, Macroeconomics, Financial Markets and Policy, and Econometrics TEACHING EXPERIENCE Instructor, International Economics Principles of Macroeconomics Fall 2013 (35 students) Fall 2010 (50 students), Spring 2011 (50 students) Combined Teaching Evaluations Enthusiastic about subject 4.8/5 Well prepared for class 4.6/5 Encouraged discussions 4.5/5 Fair with students 4.7/5 Content reflect objectives 4.7/5 Overall evaluation 4.3/5 Teaching Assistant,, Fall 2008-Spring 2010 ACADEMIC APPOINTMENTS Junior Research Associate, July 2013-Present Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) Program on Imperfect Knowledge Economics Olesia Kozlova - 1

2 Intern, Department of Investment Policy, June-August 2006 Ministry of Economy of Ukraine REFEREEING Journal of Economic Methodology, Politics, Psychology, and Economics HONORS AND AWARDS Young Scholars Award, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), April 2013 Dissertation Year Fellowship, UNH one of 15 students across entire University, 2012 Ph.D. Dissertation Year Fellowship, Economics Department, UNH, 2011 Outstanding Master s Paper, Economics Department, UNH, 2009 Full Assistantship, Economics Department, UNH, Travel Grants: SEA, EEA, CSAE conferences, WORKING PAPERS Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries (Job Market Paper) prepared for INET s 4 th plenary conference on Changing of the Guard, Hong Kong, China, April 4-6, Cross-Country Differences in the Persistence of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Microstructure Approach (September 2013) The Forward Discount Anomaly: Imperfect Knowledge, Conditional Rationality, and Risk (August 2013) FDI and Growth in the EU: Does Country of Origin Matter with B.T. Elmslie and T. Ford (April 2012) INTERNATIONAL PRESENTATIONS Invited Paper The Forward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries, INET s 4 th Annual Plenary Conference, Hong Kong, April 4-7, 2013 Conference Presentations Cross-Country Differences in the Persistence of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Microstructure Approach, XVI Applied Economics Meeting, University of Granada, Spain, June 6-7, Forward-Rate Bias and Currency Swings: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries, CSAE Conference, University of Oxford, March 17-19, The CVAR Approach to Measuring the Persistence of Exchange Rate Swings, University of Copenhagen, August, Limiting Exchange Rate Swings in Developed and Developing Countries, 11 th Trento Summer School on Macroeconomics and Financial Crises, July Paper Acceptance (was unable to attend), 5 th International IFABS Conference, University of Nottingham, UK, June 26-28, 2013 Olesia Kozlova - 2

3 U.S. PRESENTATIONS Forward Rate Bias and Currency Swings: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries, Southern Economic Association Conference, November 16-18, Chair and Discussant, The Next Step in African Development: Aid, Investment, or Another Round of Debt? Southern Economic Association Conference, November 16-18, Forward Rate Bias and Currency Swings, Graduate Economic Research Seminar, November 9, The Forward-Discount Anomaly and Risk: Allowing for Piece-Wise Linearity, Eastern Economic Association Conference, March 9-11, Discussant, The Predictive Power of Survey-Based Exchange Rate Forecasts: A Detailed Analysis, Eastern Economic Association Conference, March 9-11, Foreign Direct Investment in the EU, Eastern Economic Association Conference, February 26, Discussant, Regional Determinants of FDI Distribution in China Spatial Analysis Eastern Economic Association Conference, February 26, WORKSHOPS Workshop on Stock Flow Consistent Models INET s workshop at the Festival in Economics, Trento, Italy, May 29 - June 3, Workshop on Statistical Learning with Applications in Economics INET, Hong Kong, April 1-3, Workshop on Cointegration and Time Series Econometrics, July 2011 PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS American Economic Association member, 2010-Present Eastern Economic Association member, 2009-Present Southern Economic Association member, 2011-Pesent Economists Professional Network Group, 2012-Present UACC Diversity Network Program at UNH, 2012-Present UNH Alumni Association member, 2010-Present COMPUTER SKILLS SAS, Stata, R, Rats, Cats, Eviews, Matlab, OxMetrics, Nlogit, Limdep, Latex, and Scientific Workplace LANGUAGES English (fluent), Ukrainian (native), Russian (native), German (basic) U.S. LEGAL STATUS Permanent Resident Olesia Kozlova - 3

4 REFERENCES Dr. Michael D. Goldberg Todd H. Crockett Professor of Economics and Senior Research Associate, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) Phone: (603) Dr. Bruce Elmslie, Professor of Economics Phone: (603) Dr. Roman Frydman Professor of Economics and Chair of INET Program on Imperfect Knowledge Economics New York University 269 Mercer Street New York, New York Phone: (212) Dr. Neil Niman Chair and Associate Professor of Economics Phone: (603) Dr. Yosef Bonaparte Assistant Professor of Finance Faculty of Management University of British Columbia EME University Way Kelowna, BC Canada V1V 1V7 Phone: (250) Olesia Kozlova - 4

5 WORKING PAPERS ABSTRACTS Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries (Job Market Paper, April 2013) This paper examines the stability of the basic regression underpinning the forward-discount anomaly for 20 developed and 32 developing countries. It finds that the correlation between the change of the spot exchange rate and forward discount is piece-wise linear in every country, involving stretches of time in which forward-rate bias is negative and other stretches of time in which it is positive. The results also point out to a new empirical finding that the average magnitude of the positive and negative biases that are found in each developed country tends to be larger than those for developing countries. The paper shows that a new risk premium model based on Imperfect Knowledge Economics can account for this pattern across developed and developing countries, thereby undercutting the widespread view in the literature that developed-country currency markets are characterized by a greater degree of irrationality than those for developing countries. The Forward Discount Anomaly: Imperfect Knowledge, Conditional Rationality, and Risk (August 2013) This paper asks whether survey-based studies of the forward-discount anomaly would yield greater evidence of a time-varying risk premium if the usual assumption of a stable correlation between the risk premium and the forward premium was dropped. The study finds a piece-wise linear relationship for each of the three currency markets examined, involving stretches of time in which the forward rate bias is negative and other stretches of time in which it is positive. It also finds much more evidence of a time-varying risk premium in each currency market after allowing for structural change. In two of these markets, the risk premium accounts for nearly half of the forward rate bias that is found in the separate linear pieces of the data. These findings contradict behavioral-finance models that assume that speculators invariably overreact or underreact in a fixed way. They also undercut the widespread view in the literature that currency markets are characterized by irrational participants. Cross-Country Differences in Exchange Rate Persistence: A Microstructure Approach (August 2013) In this study, I investigate why exchange rate swings are more persistent in developed-country currency markets than in those for developing county. This finding is traced back to two new considerations that characterize developed countries: 1) a currency market whose overall volume entails a greater fraction of speculative flows relative to flows connected to the international trade in goods and services; and 2) a relative absence of central bank intervention aim at limiting exchange rate swings away from benchmark values. These results indicate that central bank intervention can be much more effective than previously understood. FDI and Growth in the EU: Does Country of Origin Matter? with B.T. Elmslie and T. Ford (April 2012) European Union countries have experienced a substantial increase in inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years. Nevertheless, there has been little empirical research investigating the growth impact of FDI coming from different source countries. This paper explores the determinants of growth effect of FDI on core EU countries. This research finds a negative relationship between economic growth and differences in capital and labor endowments between the source and the host countries. It also finds that the growth effect from FDI weakens as the geographic distance between the source and the host countries increases. Olesia Kozlova - 5

CURRICULUM VITAE. Lei (Jane) Ji

CURRICULUM VITAE. Lei (Jane) Ji CURRICULUM VITAE Lei (Jane) Ji Nov 11 th, 2010 ADDRESS CELL PHONE (919) 946-3519 Department of Economics Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA 23529 USA Work: (757) 683-3496 E-MAIL lei.ji2004@gmail.com WEBPAGE