The Global North 2050

Transcription

1 Photo By Catherine McNalty Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 Summary Report The Global North 2050 Jasper, Alberta, Canada November 22 to 25, 2011 Alberta Innovates Technology Futures believes the great challenges of our world will be resolved by innovative leaders working creatively in partnership and across disciplinary boundaries. Compiled by: Lois Macklin, B.Sc., M.A., Ph.D., R.P.F. Axel Meisen, C.M., Ph.D., P. Eng., Eurlng, FCAE

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3 Summary Report Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 The Global North 2050 Jasper, Alberta, Canada November 22 to 25, 2011 Alberta Innovates Technology Futures April 16, 2012 Jasper Innovation Forum REF: JIF 2011 Global North 2050 FINAL REPORT.docx

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5 The Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 was made possible with financial support from: Alberta Innovates - Technology Futures ********* S&T Foresight and Science Promotion Division, Science Policy Directorate, Health Canada ********* Canadian Food Inspection Agency ********* Canadian Commission for UNESCO The views expressed in this report are the views of the participants in the Jasper Innovation Forum and not those of the financial sponsors. The Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 and this Summary Report are governed by the Chatham House Rule

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7 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 4 ALBERTA S INTEREST IN THE NORTH 6 CHALLENGES OF GOVERNING THE CIRCUMPOLAR REGION 10 Social Challenges 11 Environmental Governance Challenges 16 Climate Change 17 Political Challenges 19 The Arctic Council 21 Militarization in the Circumpolar Region 25 The Future Role of Multinationals in Northern Development 27 Summary 28 THE FUTURE OF HEALTH AND EDUCATION IN THE CIRCUMPOLAR REGION 30 Future Scenarios for Health and Education 31 Service Delivery Challenges 33 Summary 35 FUTURE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CIRCUMPOLAR REGION 38 Principal Forces and Factors Governing Future Economic Opportunities 39 Arctic Ocean Transport 47 Arctic Arial Transport 49 Safety and Environment 49 Responses 50 Possible Economic Models for the North 51 CONCLUSIONS 56 GO FORWARD ACTIONS 60 APPENDICES 62 A: Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 Program 64 B: Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 Participants 66 C: Jasper Innovation Forum Discussion Guide 70 D: Scenario Stories about the World in E: Quick Facts About The North 82 F: Map of Selected Natural Resources 91 G: Map of Northern Transportation Routes 92 H: International Sea Boundaries In The Arctic 93

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9 Executive Summary The Global North is defined as the circumpolar region north of the 60 th parallel. It is of immense size (approximately 21.5 million square kilometers), sparsely populated (with just 37 million people) and still relatively unexplored. Global interest in the North has increased significantly as retreating sea ice and rising temperatures increase access to natural resources, opens new pan-continental trade routes, and challenges national sovereignty. The strongest interest in the North is expressed from the perspectives of the eight sovereign nations which comprise the geographic North: Canada, Russia, USA, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden (collectively referred to as the Northern Rim Countries). However, other countries, including members of the European Union, China, India, and South Korea have demonstrated growing interests in the circumpolar region, primarily for climatic, resource and transportation reasons. The future of the North has economic, social and political implications for the province of Alberta. Located just south of the 60 th parallel in Canada, Alberta has long-standing connections with the North in the form of transportation links, natural resource developments and the provision of goods and services. As a result, strong personal and cultural associations have been forged between Albertans and those who live in the North. The prevailing conditions in and the forces impacting on the Global North are complex, interrelated, and most importantly, are in the process of change. The objective of the Global North Project was to examine the long-term future of the Global North, choosing 2050 as the reference year. The first phase of this Project was the Jasper Innovation Forum in which, under the auspices of Alberta Innovates Technology Futures, 48 international participants with diverse backgrounds examined the principal forces and factors, together with their consequences, that will shape the future of the North. This report summarizes and expands on the Jasper Innovation Forum deliberations. It also provides a basis for future work focused on specific subject areas and geographical regions. It is necessary to read the report in its entirety to understand the full complexity of the forces shaping the future of the Global North. However, the principal conclusions that emerged from the Jasper Innovation Forum and subsequent deliberations are as follows: Several potential scenarios could play out in the Global North by 2050, contributing to considerable uncertainty about the long-term future of the region. The characteristics and underlying causes of these scenarios are presented. The degree and pace of climate change, the future of the global financial systems, and the global demand for natural resources are some of the major forces that contribute to future uncertainty. There is a strong possibility that, in the longer-term, the Global North could become a centre of world attention and increasingly important to the South. Except for 1

10 relatively short periods of time (such as the Cold War), the North held little importance for the South. The implications for specific Southern jurisdictions (including Alberta) need to be assessed. Although Indigenous people comprise only a small percentage of the total Northern population, they hold strategic positions in certain jurisdictions (particularly in the Canadian Territories and Greenland) that if used wisely, can improve their future well-being. However, significant challenges lie ahead in terms of overcoming socioeconomic barriers and building the skills and capacities required for successful engagement in the global economy. Digital technologies have a major role to play in alleviating the isolation of remote northern communities and improving the delivery of services, particularly educational, health, social, business and governmental services. Future economic opportunities in the North are strongly dependent on demands from the South. In the case of moving Northern goods to global markets, transportation plays a critical role. Lack of infrastructure is a major impediment to progress. Seven distinct economic models were developed at the Jasper Innovation Forum as long-term future possibilities for the North. The Indigenous Capitalist Model is considered to be the most promising and innovative. The need for internationally recognized regulations and standards to mitigate the future impact of human activity in the North will continue to grow. Strong institutions and wise cohesive governance are essential prerequisites for peaceful progress toward sustainable future northern development. Issues such as outstanding Indigenous claims to land and other rights, and a lack of international collaboration and legal structures, pose risks to future development opportunities. Immediate actions in the following areas are recommended to maximize future opportunity in the North: 1. Capitalizing on opportunities provided by digital technologies 2 3. Developing capabilities for operating in remote and harsh environments 2. Meeting infrastructure needs 4. Developing business in and for the North 5. Governance With the exception of Governance, these areas are well suited to be addressed collaboratively by non-government representatives from the Northern Rim Countries and others with strong interests and expertise regarding the North. Subsequent phases of the Global North 2050 Project will entail deeper explorations of these specific action areas. Consistent with its mandate, AITF s Foresight Group will focus its efforts on recommendations that have strong technological components and will lead to increased commerce for Alberta.

11 Figure 1 Map of the Global North 60 th Parallel 3

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13 Introduction The Jasper Innovation Forum (JIF) concept was created in 2008 to examine critically important issues that can be addressed, at least in part, through the development and application of science and technology. The latter reflects the mandate of the principal JIF sponsor: Alberta Innovates Technology Futures (AITF), a leading-edge research and development organization dedicated to fostering innovation and helping to build commerce for the province of Alberta. The 2008 and 2009 Jasper Innovation Forums focused on the themes of Water, Food and Energy in the Context of Innovation and Next Generation Communities, respectively. The 2010 Forum focused on Improving the Health of Canadians in a Single Generation. JIF 2011 provided a venue for indepth, structured discussion and debate about the forces and factors that will shape the future of the Global North 1 to the year 2050, with particular emphasis on the interaction between transportation and communication systems, the environment and social and economic change. In many respects, the North is one of the last great frontier regions on earth. Approximately 37 million people reside in the circumpolar region, representing less than one percent of the world s population (see Appendix E, Quick Facts about the North). The population is distributed across 21.5 million square kilometres, spanning three continents and eight national jurisdictions (see Figure 1). Due to its immense size and natural resources, the circumpolar region has become a key economic and social priority for many countries. For example, it has been estimated that up to 13% of the world s unproven oil reserves and 30% of the world s unproven gas reserves are to be found in the Arctic. 2 For millennia, the North has been populated by Indigenous peoples, living in self-sufficient ways. More recently, natural resources, new marine transportation routes and security initiatives have attracted many others to the North. In remote regions of the north, social and economic growth is heavily influenced by the establishment of new transportation and communication links, frequently developed to exploit natural resources. These links also become determinants for major social, environmental, economic and other related changes. Consistent with previous Jasper Innovation Forums, approximately 45 participants with wide-ranging expertise and highly creative abilities were invited. For a listing of participants, see Appendix B. Over a period of three days, participants explored the forces and factors that will drive change in the Global North by Their work was performed in plenary and group sessions as well as in informal discussions, all inspired by the extraordinary beauty of Jasper National Park. 1 The Global North is defined as the geographic region located north of the 60 th parallel. 2 Gautier et al. 2009, Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic. Science, 329 (May 29) 4

14 The 2011 Forum discussion was launched using a Foresight methodology called scenario creation to explore what the world and the North may experience over the next forty years. This initial plenary session resulted in the identification of four possible scenarios that may represent the future of the world and by corollary, the circumpolar region, by It is suggested that the reader review these scenarios before reading the remainder of this report (see Appendix D). Participants were then split into three working groups. concentrate on one of three focus areas: Each group was asked to Future Challenges of Governing the Circumpolar Region Future Health and Education in the Circumpolar Region Future Economic Opportunities in the Circumpolar Region Each working group was asked to consider the impact of expansions to northern transportation and communications systems in relation to their specific focus area. A Discussion Guide was provided to direct and help focus the conversation of each group (see Appendix C). Numerous insights and new understandings emerged from the discussions. These insights as well as many that have emerged from post-forum reflections and conversations are presented in this report. The report was written over a period of several weeks following JIF 2011 in order to provide not only a summary of the deliberations and conclusions, but also to build on them and to identify important gaps that were not addressed in Jasper. The report is structured to create a logical progression for the reader and, where appropriate, departs from the chronology and details of the JIF 2011 discussions. The insights and recommendations are intended to be of wide interest; governmental agencies can utilize them in formulating northern policy and AITF will incorporate them into its strategic planning process. Due to the preponderance of Canadian participants, it is important to recognize that the Canadian perspective dominated many of the discussions, as did the role of northern Indigenous people. These perspectives notwithstanding, the information in this report can provide guidance to decision-makers around the world as they consider strategic issues regarding the North. Participants and readers from other regions of the world need to read the report from the perspective of their jurisdictions. It is also important to understand Alberta s interests in the North. 5

15 Alberta s Interest in the North Over the past century, Alberta has become a logistics and supply centre for northern Canada with respect to national security, the transportation of natural resources to southern markets and the provision of services in the areas of health, food, energy, finance and housing. Geographically, Alberta is a natural north-south corridor. The flat traversable northern landscape provides easy road access from Alberta into the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Alaska. In the future, Alberta s relationship with the North could become increasingly important as pan-continental transportation routes are established through the Arctic. New ice breaking and other cold weather technologies, combined with changing climatic conditions, are opening up northern shipping routes that were historically considered impassable. As scheduled shipping through Arctic waters becomes more feasible, the need for marine and port transportation infrastructure to offload and handle cargo will grow. The establishment of deep sea cargo and shipping facilities will require improved land and air based transportation systems connecting northern freight to southern markets. Alberta is strategically positioned to capitalize on the opportunities these future changes may present. Three key routes connect major northern urban centers (Yellowknife, Whitehorse and Fairbanks) to major centres in Canada and the United States of America. All pass through the province of Alberta. The construction of the Alaska Highway in 1942 connected existing Alberta road and rail infrastructure to destinations in the Yukon and Alaska. In 1974 the Dalton Highway expanded this route from Fairbanks, Alaska into the Prudhoe Bay oilfields on the Arctic Ocean. In the 1960s the Mackenzie Highway was built from Grimshaw, Alberta to Hay River (Northwest Territories), and later expanded to Yellowknife (Northwest Territories). By 1994 this route had been expanded to Fort Simpson and Wrigley. The third route is the Dempster Highway that connects Dawson City (Yukon) to Inuvik (Northwest Territories) year round, and by a winter ice road to Tuktoyaktuk on the north coast. Dawson City is connected to Alberta via the Alaska Highway, which in turn connects into the Alberta highway system at Demmit, Alberta. In addition, three major North American pipeline systems converge in north-western Alberta and the Edmonton and Grande Prairie airports are hubs for flights into Yellowknife and other northern communities. The Cold Lake Air Force Base in Alberta provides service and support to two arctic military installations (Rankin Inlet and Inuvik). 6

16 Alberta is also linked to the North West Territories by rail, connecting to the Mackenzie River Barge system at Hay River, NWT. In recent years, digital communication tools and expanding marine, air and land-based transportation systems have removed many historic constraints on travel and communication in and through the Canadian North, improving access to the many rich mineral and petroleum deposits that exist above the 60th parallel. The complete isolation of several remote northern communities has consequently been alleviated. In the future, as northern populations grow, new social, economic and environmental imperatives will drive the need for enhanced services in healthcare and education. The use of satellites to provide broadband Internet service to even the most remote communities in the North opens up new opportunities for Alberta to expand its existing role as a key supplier of services, knowledge and goods. Mining is the largest private industrial sector in the Canadian north, followed closely by oil and gas exploration. Fishing, transportation and tourism also play important roles in northern economies. Alberta has extensive industrial expertise in cold weather engineering, construction, infrastructure design, transportation, and Arctic drilling. This is not to discount the Province s significant expertise in the delivery of health care and education into remote locations, land management, governance, finance and legal matters as they relate to the North. Alberta universities have an excellent record of research and training in the fields of northern culture, language, and climate and environmental change, making them major institutions for study and research focused on the North. Due to its immense size and natural resources, the circumpolar region has become a key economic and social priority for many countries. With a population of only 100,000 people, northern jurisdictions in Canada will be forced to seek outside expertise in order to grow their economies. Alberta should begin now to position herself as a globally recognized centre of knowledge, expertise and commerce about the North. The following are significant opportunity areas where Alberta can strengthen and enhance current jurisdictional advantage: Advancing resource and economic development in and through the North Development of technologies for application in the North, with emphasis on adaptation to northern climatic change Promotion of social and cultural resilience in northern populations Participation in collaborative national and international networks with the governing institutions in the three Canadian territories, Alaska and other circumpolar nations Collaboration and participation in International Circumpolar Research Programs 7

17 The delivery of northern education and training programs and the remote provision of health care services As the circumpolar region continues to develop, the global demand for expertise in northern issues across all disciplines will continue to grow. Understanding Alberta s current and historical relationship with the North is an important first step in capitalizing on the opportunities northern development may present to the province. Understanding the expertise and knowledge that Alberta may contribute to future northern development is the second. This report provides insights and guidance on major future actions that may be undertaken today to ensure that Alberta and the rest of Canada are positioned to play a leadership role in achieving peaceful and sustainable development in the North. 8

18 Figure 2 Map of the Province of Alberta

19 Challenges of Governing the Circumpolar Region As economic and geopolitical links between the North and the South tighten, new governance challenges are emerging around social expectations, environmental issues, legal rights and geopolitics. At present, circumpolar governance entails the multi-layered application of national and international laws and various non-binding international treaties and agreements. International cooperation occurs through mutually agreed upon governance frameworks such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Arctic Council and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Other governance mechanisms are regionally specific, such as the work of the Arctic Council and the Barents Euro-Arctic Council or functionally specific, such as the guidelines for shipping developed under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Governance is further complicated by the fact that the Indigenous peoples of several northern nations have a variety of legally recognized rights and treaty agreements over large tracts of their traditional lands. National interest in the North is mainly expressed from the perspectives of eight sovereign nations: Canada, Russia, USA, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden (collectively referred to as the Northern Rim Countries) which comprise the geographic North. Rules and regulations may be determined by various international bodies, but are ultimately interpreted at the national level by politicians and regulators or occasionally implemented as voluntary initiatives through groups such as industry associations. Several other nations that have commercial and/or national security concerns in the circumpolar region have also indicated major interest the North. The powerful influence of large multinational corporations in the development of governance frameworks is also increasingly a factor in circumpolar governance. Many private sector corporations anticipate future economic benefit from accessing northern resources, such as oil, gas and minerals. Through their investments and other business activities, they expect to have strong direct and indirect influence on northern affairs and development strategies. There are many reasons to conclude that the circumpolar region of the world is in the midst of unprecedented change driven by the interacting forces, including globalization, advances in transportation and digital communication technologies and climatic change. How these and other forces interact in coming decades will define the nature and complexity of the social, environmental, economic and associated governance challenges that will emerge. 10

20 Social Challenges The circumpolar region is a vast geographic area and the people who live there are far from homogeneous. A high degree of variability exists in terms of population numbers, ethnicity and values. For example, the population of the relatively small European Arctic outweighs the combined population of Canada s three territories and a large segment of Russia s northern regions (see Figure 3). A distinct rural/urban divide further delineates between populations of Indigenous people and Non-indigenous people who have migrated north in more recent times. As the circumpolar region becomes more tightly linked to southern economies, all Northerners will experience profound social and cultural changes, but Indigenous people stand to be the most directly impacted. Indigenous Peoples Rights Currently, Indigenous people make up a relatively small portion of the total populations in the Northern Rim Countries (an estimated 1 million of the 37 million who live north of the 60 th parallel are Indigenous). The relative portion of Indigenous versus non- Indigenous people varies greatly between jurisdictions (see Figures 1 and 2). Greenland, a territory of Denmark, and the Nunavut Territory in Canada have the highest proportion of the Indigenous people (90% and 85%, respectively). Other jurisdictions range from less than 1% in the Scandinavian countries and Iceland, up to 50% in the Northwest Territories of Canada. Historically, Indigenous culture and language knew no political boundaries. It was defined by migration and historical occupation. As colonization occurred, some populations such as the Sami of Scandinavia were divided by state boundaries and defined as being Norwegian, Finnish or Swedish. In many cases the imposed national identity continues to define future prospects and is further complicated by inter-racial marriage. Among the Northern Rim Countries, the response to demands from Indigenous people for recognition and self-governance has been disparate. In Canada, the Canadian Constitution recognizes the complex nature and uniqueness of the Indigenous societies who have occupied northern landscapes since time immemorial. Through a system of negotiated treaties, Canada recognizes legal rights conveyed by traditional use and occupancy of the land. The manner and degree to which those rights extend, is in many cases, still open to judicial interpretation. In Russia, Indigenous people have also sought to advance their legal rights, including rights to traditional territories and the resources therein. The Russian government initially responded to an Indigenous lobby by including discrete articles addressing Indigenous rights in a number of its laws, including those related to forests, sub-surface resources, and protected areas. More comprehensive laws, specifically addressing 11

21 Indigenous rights to land, were finally adopted in 1999, 2000, and these laws are unevenly applied and also open to legal interpretation. Currently Figure 3 Population Distribution in the Circumpolar Region, By Country Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal. URL 3 V Fondal, G. & Poelzer, G. (2003). Aboriginal land rights in Russia at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Polar Record, 39,

22 The Nordic countries continue to be considered by many to be leaders in the recognition and protection of the rights of Indigenous people. However, according to a United Nations report released in June 2011, more remains to be done to ensure the Sami people can pursue their self-determination and develop their common goals as a people living across more than one state and that Nordic states should continue existing efforts to advance the rights of Sami people within each of the states in which they live. 4 In Alaska, USA, native claims to almost all of Alaska were extinguished in 1971 in exchange for approximately one-ninth of the state s land plus a substantial cash settlement. Iceland has no Indigenous population. The Inuit in Greenland continue to lobby Denmark for autonomy and recognition. While Indigenous people remain a proportionately small part of the northern population, their assertion of aboriginal rights has become a major governance challenge. The coordination of geo-political interests and national laws with the ambitions and rights of Indigenous people requires nuanced thinking regarding a number of key concepts, including identity, citizenship, community, and sovereignty. In the future, the prosperity of the northern Indigenous people will be determined by many factors. They currently have a strategic position that could become a major factor in future northern development. Unfortunately, success is not assured. Over the long term, the desire of Indigenous people to distinguish themselves as a sovereign people with unique rights to self-governance and the fruits of the lands they have historically occupied may become increasingly problematic to the non-indigenous majority. The social complexity and multiple layers of governance that characterize self-government could become a destabilizing and therefore, a limiting factor in their ability to capitalize upon emerging opportunities. National and territorial laws and regulations must be respected and upheld for the collective good of the region and the country. In many cases Indigenous groups control key resources and represent an important component of the labour force. If national regulations are perceived as a barrier to future economic opportunity for Indigenous people, litigation and conflict have the potential to complicate and even discourage many potential northern economic endeavours. Alternatively, if Indigenous people are able to take full advantage of the opportunities their unique situation affords by raising their prospects through education, good health care, wealth generation and environmental stewardship, many could become major 4 UN Human Rights Council (2011). Report of the Special Rapporteur on the rights of Indigenous Peoples, James Anaya. UN General Assembly, 18 th Session. 13

23 players in the global economy. One possible future scenario (see Appendix D) has Indigenous people as a powerful visible minority who have the skills and sophistication required to exist and prosper within a growing multi-cultural and increasingly urban society. In this scenario, traditional language, knowledge and skills may only be preserved as the result of intentional intervention and a future demand for traditional knowledge. Climate change may result in a paradigm shift in the way the relationship between society and the environment is viewed, prompting decision makers to seek out traditional knowledge as a way to inform key decisions. Like the remainder of the global population, Indigenous people will be significantly impacted if large cross cutting issues such as climate change, geo-economic crisis and global conflict continue to characterize the 21 st century. In a highly disrupted future scenario where national economies are weakened, the trend of northern development may reverse. In this future, Indigenous people who have overcome historic socioeconomic hurdles and who have education and skills, will be better prepared to pursue success elsewhere in the world. Many Indigenous people will be extremely vulnerable if future circumstances dictate that government support must be reduced due to budgetary constraints. In the absence of a willingness or ability to participate in the global economy, the future prosperity of the Indigenous people in the circumpolar region is unclear. The Rural /Urban Divide The urban/rural dichotomy that currently exists in the vast northern landscapes of Canada, Russia, Greenland, and Iceland is likely to persist in coming decades (see Figure 4). For the purposes of this report, rural communities are defined as communities with less than 25,000 people. Under virtually all positive migration scenarios, northern urban centres will experience higher growth rates than rural communities. Within many northern jurisdictions, people who live in remote rural communities feel that their standard of living, including access to good health care and education, is significantly less than those living in larger northern urban centres, let alone those living in the South. The challenges of delivering health and education services in the North are discussed later in this report. Given that the majority of rural Northerners are Indigenous people, the urban/rural dichotomy could remain a source of tension for the foreseeable future if the disparities it represents remain unaddressed. A number of factors could contribute to significant population growth in sparsely populated regions of the circumpolar region over the coming decades. Where resource development occurs, labour and expertise will need to be imported from southern 14

24 jurisdictions to fill jobs and deliver services. Over the longer term, sovereignty issues may prompt some national governments to incent the settlement of remote northern Figure 4 Populations in Northern Cities and Rural Settlements in

25 locations in order to show occupancy and use of the territory. Increased military deployment into the North may create new urban centers staffed with Southerners who provide the workforce and expertise required for deep sea marine ports, communications installations and airports. As global warming progresses, increasingly hot dry conditions in central and southern latitudes may motivate Southerners to migrate to the comfort and greater productivity of cooler northern jurisdictions. It is fair to assume that most of the future migrants to the North will be people from non-indigenous ethnic groups and quite possibly from other nations. Changing demographics in the circumpolar region may exacerbate future regional and local governance issues, particularly if northern Indigenous peoples retain selfgovernment and control over large tracks of resource rich land. In some jurisdictions, small proportional populations mean that Indigenous people will become an increasingly smaller segment of a growing urban and mainly non-indigenous population. Nunavut and Greenland may be particularly challenged as these are regions where governance and ethnicity are closely linked. Many of the predominantly Indigenous citizens view the land within these political boundaries as ethnic homelands. For example, the consensus-based governance model adopted in Nunavut, Canada, where the population is predominantly Inuit, could lose legitimacy in the face of the expectations of an increasingly large and ethnically diverse immigrant population. Alternatively, the negative impacts of forces like rapid climate change or terrorism on global geo-economics and national governments could depress the demand for northern resources leaving much of the circumpolar region as an undeveloped hinterland and the people who live there struggling to subsist. If this is the future, urban centers in the North could stagnate as citizens migrate south and rural communities suffer a loss of services and support. Under such dire circumstances, lifestyles for many Northerners may revert back to those experienced during the first half of the 20 th century. Environmental Governance Challenges The circumpolar region no longer exists in isolation. Historically, much of the circumpolar region was inaccessible due to the inhospitable climate. In recent decades, new cold weather technologies combined with climatic warming have opened the airways, waterways and landscapes to increased human activity. Due to changing climatic conditions, the ecological transformation of the circumpolar region continues apace as does the pressure to exploit the minerals, petroleum reserves, fish and other resources found in northern areas. Environmental degradation of circumpolar terrestrial and marine environments is a key concern associated with future economic growth, 16

26 especially since a significant number of unique ecological ecosystems are represented there. Airborne pollution, improperly stored hazardous wastes from industrial activities, marine shipping accidents, off-shore fishing, military deployment and the impact of climate change are just some of the ways that human activities can impact all circumpolar environments either directly or indirectly. An important and complicating factor is that for the foreseeable future, the environmentally destructive industrial activities that most impact the North (including greenhouse gas emissions) will continue to be driven by economic growth in the South. As the degree and pace of human activities in the North increases, the need for broad and inclusive mechanisms to address the governance challenges related to sustainable development will become of greater importance. Climate Change Climate change is arguably the most significant environmental challenge in northern latitudes. Climate-driven change is biophysical, social and economic in nature and is often non-linear, abrupt, and possibly irreversible. As global climate change alters wind, precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide, ocean currents may reflect these changes in unpredictable ways. In the future, rising sea levels and increased climate volatility could cause high degrees of system level disruption and generate unprecedented future global strife. The projected climate situation in 2090 is presented in Figure 5; the temperatures are annual values from the NCAR-Community Climate Model3 used by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ice and permafrost are from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, commissioned by the Arctic Council in Mitigation of climate change is proving to be a daunting governance challenge and a deeply divisive political issue. After seventeen years of work by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNCCC), the goals set out in a fully ratified international agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction have yet to be achieved. In large part, this is because climate change mitigation presents an unpalatable public policy dilemma. The reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases demands significant short-term sacrifice on the behalf of individuals and organizations today, for the long-term benefit of the undefined collective at some unspecified time in the future. Furthermore, the phenomenon is global in nature but local in implications. Those jurisdictions prepared to incur the cost of mitigation are at a significant economic disadvantage to those which are not. 5 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2005). 17

27 Figure 5 Projected Temperature Increases, 2090 Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal. URL: Climate change is also a North/South issue. Most of the activities that are causing climate change in the North are generated in the larger population centres of the world, which are mainly located in southern latitudes. Many northern people have an increased sense of urgency related to climate change given the profound biophysical changes they are already experiencing but, at the same time, resent the possible imposition of regulations and taxes that could restrict the industrial development required to grow local northern economies. 18

28 Climate change is not only impacting environmental systems, it is also a potential threat to global security. By the end of the 21 st century, climate driven disruptions may take the form of extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts, floods, storms and changes to ocean currents), potentially leading to acidification of the oceans, rising sea levels, rising conflict over food, water and other resources and mass human migration. The European Environmental Commission has stated that environmental changes are altering geostrategic dynamics of the circumpolar region and that these changes could have consequences for international stability and is, therefore, a matter of global security. 6 The World Watch Institute states that climate change may trigger severe disruptions with ever widening consequences for local, regional, and global security. 7 In the future, if the degree and pace of biophysical change outstrips the ability of society to develop effective coping mechanisms, the impact of climate change will be globally destabilizing. For the circumpolar region this bodes poorly. The average temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise twice as fast as in the rest of the world. Locally, the relative abundance and distribution of species will continue to change, as do the types of human activity and the geographic regions in which they occur. If the impacts of climate change destabilize governments and disrupt global market forces, many of the economic opportunities that are expected to be realized in the North may be abandoned. In the face of rapid and profound change, it is reasonable to assume that current environmental laws may need to be refined and new ones developed. Given that the Arctic plays such a key role in regulating global climate, this work will require extraordinary international collaboration to make adaptive social and economic transitions. In the face of rapid and disruptive climate change, decisions may need to be taken that have profound impacts on the North, its people and its environment (i.e., climatic engineering to prevent complete loss of the polar ice cap). Whether Northerners will have a dominant role in these future decisions remains unclear. Political Challenges The politics of the circumpolar region is the result of the interacting interests (whether direct or indirect, conflicting or peaceful) of nation states whose territory lies partly or entirely within the region, other nations which have no geographic proximity but do have 6 European Commission Communication on the European Union and the Arctic Region (EU, Brussels, 20 November 2008). 7 World Watch Institute: Global Security Brief #3. URL: 19

29 significant economic or security interests, and Indigenous people who hold a unique and strategic position in the northern context. For the foreseeable future, nation states will remain the critical players in responding to the governance needs of the circumpolar region. Only sovereign governments currently have the legal power and international recognition to formulate new regulations and negotiate new international treaties to address large cross-cutting issues such as climate change, national security, trans-boundary pollution and sovereign border disputes. The political will and cooperation of Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway and the United States, the five most powerful countries with geographic presence in the circumpolar region (referred to as the Arctic Five), will be major factors in how and whether the circumpolar region is developed. However, nations such as China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany, Singapore and others have demonstrated increasing interest in the North, particularly as it pertains to emergent sea routes, natural resources, economic opportunity and geopolitical power. Most of the existing international agreements are voluntary, without legal force. Holding a country or even a foreign company accountable in the face of environmental damage is very difficult. While several collaborative frameworks related to international scientific research and data collection have been successfully established, reaching the same levels of cooperation on international accountability continues to be much more difficult. Resources that have less commercial value will remain the easiest to govern collaboratively. Whereas polar bears compel international cooperation, precious commodities like oil and gas provoke sovereignty claims. From an environmental perspective, the activities of those operating in the international zones in the circumpolar region remain relatively unregulated and between nations, expectations and standards of practice are often fractured or even absent on some of the most challenging environmental issues. For example, fishery management strategies for open international waters in the Arctic are yet to be developed by the international community. As the polar ice recedes, there are 2.8 million square kilometers of potential new fishing grounds beyond the Exclusive Economic Zones of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Alaska and Norway that are currently unregulated. Some view the circumpolar region as a new frontier requiring its own unique systems of regulation and governance, while others feel that adequate governance structures exist that must simply be applied in the new northern context. Issues related to international zones that are outside national jurisdictions in the circumpolar region have been addressed with varying levels of success, through a complex array of international treaties, conventions and programs, bilateral agreements, 20

30 national and sub national laws, and non-governmental institutions, but more work remains to be done. To date, this multi-layered governance approach has focused on: regulation of specific parts of the Arctic marine ecosystems (e.g., the International Convention on the Regulation of Whaling and the UN Fish Stocks Agreement); regulation in specific geographical segments of the North (e.g., The North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission); regulation of specific activities (e.g., the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships and the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter); and species-based management frameworks, such as the International Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears and protection of the Beluga Whale. In the future, as the nature and scope of human activities in the North expands, the need for broad and inclusive mechanisms to address the governance challenges related to commercial development in the circumpolar region must be of increasing priority to invested parties. There has been growing recognition and respect for nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), such as the Arctic Council, as increasingly important mechanisms for addressing emerging governance challenges related to the environment. Whether this type of organization can accommodate future governance challenges presented by highly divisive issues such as national security and climate change mitigation, is uncertain. The Arctic Council In 1996, the governments of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden and the United States of America formed the Arctic Council. The main purpose of the organization was to: 8 a) Provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic states, with the involvement of the Arctic Indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants on common Arctic issues [Arctic Council does not deal with matters of military security], in particular issues of sustainable development and environmental protection in the Arctic. b) Oversee and coordinate the programs established under the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS) on the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP), Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF); Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME); and Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response (EPPR). c) Adopt terms of reference for and oversee and coordinate a sustainable development program. 8 Ottawa Declaration on the Establishment of the Arctic Council. Sept 19, URL: 21

31 d) Disseminate information, encourage education and promote interest in Arctic related issues. The category of Permanent Participation was created to provide for active participation and full consultation with Arctic Indigenous representatives within the Arctic Council. The Inuit Circumpolar Conference (ICC), the Sami Council and the Association of Indigenous Minorities of the North, Siberia and the Far East of the Russian Federation are permanent participants in the Arctic Council. Decisions of the Council are to be made by consensus of the eight member states and the permanent participants. Observer status in the Arctic Council is currently open to non-arctic states; intergovernmental and inter-parliamentary organizations, global and regional and nongovernmental organizations that the Council determines can contribute to its work. When the Council was formed, military and security issues were deliberately omitted from its mandate. Since then, sea ice has receded significantly thereby opening up previously inaccessible regions to threats from terrorists, smugglers, illegal immigrants and industrial spills and other serious environmental degradations. Many of these emerging governance challenges involve matters that are beyond the current mandate of the Arctic Council. However, the Arctic Council is considered by many to be a model that could be expanded to provide the level of coordination to address the complex and over-lapping governance challenges. The idea of converting the Arctic Council mandate into a more comprehensive treaty may be worth future consideration, but it also raises questions about whether the legal authority, skills and knowledge of current representatives at the table are appropriate to deal with potentially charged geo-political issues such as global security. Recently, countries that have no geographical links to the region like China, Italy, South Korea, Japan and the EU have applied to become permanent observers of the Arctic Council, only to be turned down because Indigenous Permanent Participants fear their interests will be marginalized should large players like China and the EU become part of the Council. It is worth noting that the EU could acquire membership in the Council if Iceland joins the EU. If this were to happen, the EU would bring a different perspective to the table given that its overarching priority is protecting the Arctic environment while allowing for some sustainable resource exploitation. Conversion of the Arctic Council into some form of legally binding international entity would require intentional and intensive international commitment to fiscal and legal obligations that most world leaders are hesitant to make in the absence of binding internationally recognized legal frameworks for accountability. In its current form, the Arctic Council already faces questions of legitimacy and not all international players give it equal commitment or recognition. While the work of the Council remains important, the effectiveness of the organization is constrained by its legal realities and restricted 22

32 mandate. For example, up until 2011 when the Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue agreement (SAR) was signed, none of the agreements negotiated by the Arctic Council were legally binding. Some argue that the ability of the Council to achieve results on the environmental front would be compromised if they try to address politically sensitive issues such as national security and climate change mitigation. Other organizations are beginning to form in response to rising concerns over sovereignty and security. For example, the Arctic Five (Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway and the United States) produced the Ilulissat Declaration 9 in 2008, which clearly states (see quote below) that from the perspectives of the Arctic Five, there will be no negotiation of an alternative regime for the Arctic Ocean that would be contrary to the provisions of the UN Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS). By virtue of their sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in large areas of the Arctic Ocean the five coastal states are in a unique position to address these possibilities and challenges. In this regard, we recall that an extensive international legal framework applies to the Arctic Ocean as discussed between our representatives at the meeting in Oslo on 15 and 16 October 2007 at the level of senior officials. Notably, the law of the sea provides for important rights and obligations concerning the delineation of the outer limits of the continental shelf, the protection of the marine environment, including ice-covered areas, freedom of navigation, marine scientific research, and other uses of the sea. We remain committed to this legal framework and to the orderly settlement of any possible overlapping claims. This framework provides a solid foundation for responsible management by the five coastal states and other users of this ocean through national implementation and application of relevant provisions. We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean. We will keep abreast of the developments in the Arctic Ocean and continue to implement appropriate measures. Critics see the Ilulissat Declaration as an attempt to undermine the Arctic Council, and retract the influence of Indigenous groups. Non-arctic nations see it as an attempt to exclude them from having a role in the future of the region. Failure to develop new collaborative governance mechanisms increases future northern vulnerability in the face of major disruptive forces such as geo-economic dysfunction or climate change. In the absence of strong governance, powerful national or corporate interests could assume unprecedented power positions in world affairs. Under such a scenario, resource rich jurisdictions such as the North could be exploited. 9 The Ilulissat Declaration (2008) 23

33 Those living in proximity may gain little social or financial benefit and experience severe environmental degradation over coming decades. For example, in recent years some in China have been vocal in asserting that the Arctic belongs to all. 10 The concern is that European and North American Arctic powers will exclude other members of the international community from the potential benefits that the North has to offer. Given that nearly half of China s GDP is dependent on shipping, there are substantial commercial implications if shipping routes can be shortened in the future by travelling through the Arctic (see Figures 6 and 12). Figure 6 Shipping Routes: Current vs. Future Arctic Routes Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal. URL: Since 2004, China has had a permanent land-based research station (Huang He Zhan) in the Svalbard Archipelago, in the Barents Sea. The facility is supposedly dedicated to oceanic and climate research. China is building a new 8,000-tonne icebreaker that will be launched in The ship will be a companion to its current vessel, the Xuelong, which already operates in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As the world s largest consumer of many industrial raw materials and energy, China has implemented a coherent and assertive policy on the acquisition of raw materials and energy sources. The ownership of large modern icebreakers can be interpreted as a clear statement of interest from a country that would benefit significantly from new Arctic shipping lanes and the many resource and energy reserves found in the circumpolar region. China can 10 Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo in March 2010: The Arctic belongs to all the people around the world, as no nation has sovereignty over it.... China must play an indispensable role in Arctic exploration as we have one-fifth of the world s population. 24

34 be expected to gain further strategic position north of the 60 th parallel through foreign policy, military presence, trade, and investment. China is not alone in her interest or concern about the future governance of the circumpolar region. A host of non-circumpolar states also seek international recognition of their interests in the region. Historically, an interest in a jurisdiction has not equated to the right to make decisions about that jurisdiction; in the future this may change. If interest in the North remains strong over the coming decades, nations like China will become prominent players in circumpolar development. Proactively, integrating them into some sort of governance structure that preserves the primary role of sovereign northern nations seems preferable to alienating them. If the Northern Rim Countries can find a diplomatic approach to productively channel the interests of powerful emerging nations like China, South Korea and others, the possibility of future international collaboration on many other emerging issues is increased. In the absence of new collaborative mechanisms, achieving multilateral cooperation in the circumpolar region will be challenging as international interest intensifies in the coming decades. The emergence of a new democratically elected governance body that can set and enforce international regulations would go a long way in providing the future stability, accountability and predictability required to facilitate sustainable northern development. The European Union is one possible model. Another may be a United Nations Parliamentary Assembly, made up of elected members who mediate national disputes and make the decisions demanded to ensure future prosperity. There is little assurance that such governance mechanisms will emerge in the future, given the adherence of Northern Rim Countries to their sovereign interests. Militarization in the Circumpolar Region The fact that the nation states most interested in the circumpolar region are highly industrialized and globally powerful is a key consideration for the future of the North. Many industrialized nations have expressed that the Arctic is of high geo-strategic value. Consequently, the circumpolar region is now approaching a level of militarization not witnessed since the Cold War. Militarization appears to be driven to a great degree by sovereignty concerns, commercial ambitions and to a lesser degree, by security threats such as criminal acts and terrorism. Canada, Norway, Denmark and Russia have each indicated a considerable expansion of their respective military capacities in the region. Canada has announced plans to build six to eight offshore vessels; build one large icebreaker; expand Indigenous surveillance capacity, create a Northern 25

35 Reserve Unit based in the Arctic, develop an army training base in Resolute and develop a deep water resupply port in Nanisivik. 11 Denmark has already made a significant investment in armed ice-capable patrol vessels that have the capability to take on additional anti-air and anti-ship defence systems. The Danish Air Force also has recently considered the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets, capable of Arctic operations. Norway is also engaged in a very substantial rebuilding of her forces, including five frigates equipped with superior air combat capability, and the purchase of forty-eight F- 35 fighter jets. Russia s rearmament program calls for a general rebuilding of Russian military forces, including the construction of several new submarines and new nuclear powered icebreakers. Since 2007, Russia has been increasing military activity and the size of her forces in the Arctic. The US has maintained Arctic military capabilities throughout the post-cold War era and has always considered the Arctic as vital to US national security. China is now ranked third in global military capacity, after the US and Russia, the United Kingdom is fifth and South Korea is seventh, followed by France and Japan respectively. 12 In one possible future scenario, some or all of these states will choose to exert their presence in the North through increased arms deployment, physical occupation, and international alliances. It is also reasonable to speculate whether the current military power of the US and others will remain dominant. The emergence of other military superpowers could certainly reposition geo-political players in the North. However, what currently appears to be an upward trend in militarization within the circumpolar region may flatten or even reverse. There are no guarantees that future international interest in the circumpolar region will continue to grow. Should major forces such as global recession or the development of new alternative disruptive energy technologies occur, many nation states may decide to redirect their efforts and investments away from the North. Severe and rapid climatic change could also force many nations to abandon their aspirations in the circumpolar region and reallocate available financial and other resources to addressing national emergencies such as food shortages and drought. 11 Rob Huebert, Canada and the Changing International Arctic: At the Crossroads of Cooperation and Conflict in Northern Exposure: Peoples, Powers and Prospects for Canada s North edited by Frances Abele, Thomas J. Courchene, F. Leslie Seidle and France St-Hilaire (Montreal: IRPP). 12 Source: 26

36 The Future Role of Multinationals in Northern Development Governance is the result of the dynamic interplay of public and private actors. Large multinational corporations have the money and experience required to translate the resources of the North into economic opportunities. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that much future development in the circumpolar region will be driven by corporations. Increasing market demand is expected to drive the exploitation of natural resources well into the 21 st century. Under such a scenario, the opportunity to attract direct foreign investment may be extremely appealing for various Indigenous communities in the circumpolar region. In recent years many multinational corporations have quietly gained control over large portions of the natural resources that exist in the circumpolar regions. In particular, Indigenous people have begun to directly enter into business alliances with large multinational corporations. In exchange for resource exploration and production rights, they are promised benefits such as local employment and profit sharing. The long-term advantages derived from such arrangements will largely be a function of how well they negotiate. Well managed public/private partnerships have the potential to expedite the commercial development of resources in a sustainable manner that benefits all northerners. In the absence of strong institutions and good governance, public private partnerships can pose risks for community dependency and government neutrality. Through taxes, fees and wages, multinationals add hard currency to local economies, build infrastructure, and often raise the local standard of living. As a result, large corporations can wield disproportionate power through the threat of withdrawal, elimination of competition, and aggressive support of favourable political representatives. Interaction between a particular people and the global economy is creating a new governance context that clearly challenges existing political decision-making structures. Multinational corporations are already centres of economic power that increasingly challenge the sovereignty of some nation states. In the future, if national governments are weakened by fiscal constraints or other internal national crisis, multinational corporations could gain extraordinary global dominance. By occupying the void government contraction would create, multinational corporations might undertake northern development in the pursuit of narrow corporate interests. In this future, those who work for large corporate entities would thrive while those who lacked such employment would, in all likelihood, suffer a dramatic reduction in their standard of living, including access to quality education and healthcare. Entities that enter into partnerships with large multinationals could lose control if future 27

37 governing bodies are not strong enough to counter the narrow commercial interests of these corporations. A clear and effective regulatory environment is critical to minimizing negative externalities of foreign investment by large multinationals. It is also worth considering the special role of large multinational insurance companies. Most commercial strategies are based on the willingness of private-sector insurance agencies to underwrite potential loss. If in the future, large multinational insurance companies cease to cover losses resulting from climate change, many commercial endeavours in the North may simply not be pursued. Without the ability to manage risk through insurance, the feasibility of many proposed future activities, such as marine shipping, the installation of communication complexes, expansion of infrastructure, etc. will be deemed unfeasible. Withdrawal of insurance coverage due to natural disaster would have profound implications for any future development in the North. Summary In coming decades, changing climatic conditions will remain a significant driver in the circumpolar region. In order to support costs that must be incurred to address climate change and ensure sustainable future development in the North, intensive and effective international cooperation is required. However the future may evolve, the greatest governance challenges by 2050 will occur when coordinated responses are required that must alleviate significant tensions: the trade-offs between economic prosperity and environmental degradation, individual versus collective rights, racial discrimination, northern versus southern interests, and public versus private sector interests. These are not governance challenges that are unique to the North, but they are more pronounced in a huge geographic landscape inhabited by a small but highly diverse population. Under all future scenarios, harmonization of international agreements with national laws and the ambitions of northern Indigenous peoples will remain challenging. Competing objectives will make the achievement of cohesive governance over such a vast but important region of the world extremely challenging. A significant source of future conflict will be the divide between those who see the North as a resource rich area ripe for extraction and those who are deeply concerned about the fragile ecosystems that characterize the North. In isolation, national and regional approaches will not achieve the cohesion required to address large cross-cutting issues impacting the circumpolar region (such as climate change). While some international organizations have exhibited some capacity to create cohesive governance frameworks to deal with trans-boundary environmental issues, they currently lack the weight of binding international law to ensure appropriate investment, commitment and compliance from all the national and international players involved in northern development. 28

38 Cooperation and resources are required from the international community to respond to the receding Arctic ice and all the future issues associated with climatic change. Nationally, sovereignty issues must be resolved as they relate to the determination of national waters and geopolitical boundaries. Regionally, major adaptation is necessary in the way of life for many northern Indigenous peoples. In the absence of such collaboration, governance in the circumpolar region will likely continue to reflect the will of the most influential, whether they are significant investors such as multinationals, sovereign nations, or the southern majorities. This does not bode well for Indigenous society, small communities and less powerful nations which try to exert their sovereign rights in the region. How future human activities in the circumpolar region should be governed is a question of significant future importance to which the answer is presently unknown. 29

39 The Future of Health and Education in the Circumpolar Region Many of the Northern Rim Countries are recognized for their high standards of living. Factors such as budgetary constraints, workforce skill and mix, geographic remoteness and service delivery models are all factors that will continue to impact the quality and cost of health and education services Northerners will receive in the future. Persistent disparities exist between the health and educational services available to those who live in the urban North and the rural North. Many of the latter live in sub-standard socioeconomic conditions. In particular, Indigenous populations in some Northern Rim Countries continue to receive a lower level of education and suffer a higher than national average prevalence of risk factors for disease and disease development. Poor health and lack of educational opportunities make the disadvantaged more vulnerable to the negative impacts of economic crises, environmental degradation, biophysical change, and disruptive technological advances. To ensure that all Northerners are full and active participants in the future development of the North, attention must be paid to alleviating the outstanding disparities that exist today. Fundamental differences in the governance systems of Northern Rim Countries affect the design and delivery of health and education services to the most vulnerable populations. Northern Rim Countries fall into three categories according to their national health and education systems: the United States of America, with its strong reliance on private sector delivery; Canada and the Nordic countries, with predominantly publically funded systems, and Russia, where public funding exceeds that of the United States of America but is lower than that of Canada and the Nordic countries. 13 The cost and efficacy of northern health and educational services can generally be correlated to the national averages of each system, with some exceptions. For example, the cost of health care in Nunavut, Canada is among the highest per capita in the world but education levels and population health are well below national averages. The situation in Nunavut is complicated by the division of responsibilities between Federal and the Territorial governments and the unique position and entitlements Indigenous people are guaranteed by Canada s Constitution. In contrast, Greenland, a close geographic neighbor to Nunavut, has per capita health care costs that are lower than the national per capita cost of Denmark. In some parts of Siberia, costs are nine 13 Young, K and Chatwood, S, (2011). Healthcare in the North: what Canada can learn from its circumpolar neighbours? CMAJ February 8, :

40 times the Russian national average. In the northern regions of the Nordic countries, costs are indistinguishable from those in southern regions and the levels of health and education are on par with national averages. 13 Future Scenarios for Health and Education For the reasons already discussed, a great deal of uncertainty exists about the future ability of all Northerners to access a high standard of health and education. For example, under all future global scenarios (See Appendix E), digital technologies are expected to play an increasingly important role in the delivery of health and educational services. Technological advances can precipitate fundamental changes in the way people address their own and their families health and educational needs. As digital and web-based health technologies become widely accessible, user friendly and affordable, it is expected that individuals will be able to access many health and educational services tailored to their personal needs and requirements from their home or local health service centre. Emerging technologies such as 3D printing have the potential to provide on-demand products at an affordable price as well as create new economic opportunities at the community level. However, for the full benefit of digital technologies to be realized in remote northern communities, future priority must be given to information and communications (ICT) infrastructure deployment and application development. Historically, expansion of communication infrastructure in northern jurisdictions has been driven by the pursuit of national security interests and private commercial needs. As a result, there is a limited ability to accommodate civilian activities (such as the delivery of health care and education services). The full deployment of ICT technology appropriate for the delivery of health and education (and potentially other public services) to a relatively small population scattered across a broad and often harsh landscape poses significant financial and technological hurdles. In the best case future scenario, there will be an expansion of seamless, affordable and ubiquitous publically funded ICT systems into remote regions of the circumpolar region. All users, regardless of where they live, will have both the ability and the capacity to make optimal use of the information and services provided. High quality health and education services will be delivered into homes of the consumers and into communities at lower per capita costs. Given that digital technologies increasingly free users from the geographic constraints of bricks and mortar institutions, the choice of health service provider, educational institute, or even employer, will no longer be limited by what is locally available. Delivery will be on demand and services will be increasingly customized for the individual consumer. Ubiquitous access to web-based technologies would allow all Northerners to integrate and adapt these technologies in ways that suit them and their lifestyles. For example, 31

41 Inuit families could resume semi-nomadic lifestyles, if their children s education, their job functions and their health care services can be secured through mobile communication devices. Affordable data capacities will also enable people living in remote northern communities to develop web-based businesses that will diversify and stimulate local economies. Some of these could be in the fields of healthcare and education. If future government budgets permit, such public investment can and likely will be made over time. The investment of public funds will be necessary to build a ubiquitous ICT complex and to develop the programs and skills required to deliver and receive public services digitally. It would be astute for governments to engage in public/private and international partnerships to secure public access to privately-built infrastructure. In a less positive future scenario, the ability of fiscally constrained governments making significant funding available to ensure universal access to digital web-based health and education technologies would most certainly be low. Without government support, future generations of disadvantaged populations like Nunavut, will have little ability to change the difficult socio-economic conditions that currently exist. Those unable to become digitally connected could become increasingly socially and economically marginalized. In the face of rapid and profound climatic change, even the well-off in the most industrialized regions north of the 60 th parallel will be impacted by issues such as global food shortages, mass human migration, conflict, and economic failure. A weakening of government in this bleak scenario could seriously diminish government oversight and public services causing a decrease in life expectancy and educational opportunities in some Northern Rim Countries. For many, community led interventions may become the only health and education programs available to many. Mental illness, injury, and increased mortality will affect all populations as people struggle to cope with serious system level dysfunction. Ironically, sub-arctic regions may see an unwelcome growth in population as hot dry conditions and rising sea levels trigger mass human migrations. Linking the delivery of public services such as health and education to the approval of industrial development proposals would create incentives for private investors to assume a larger role in funding and delivery. Those working for major companies who provide these services for their employees and their families would have a distinct social and financial advantage over those who do not. Where the market opportunity is deemed sufficient, these companies might extend these services to the broader community on a user pay basis. Private/public partnerships would be required to ensure that such benefits are extended to the disadvantaged and marginalized segments of the population who may not be part of the workforce. 32

42 Service Delivery Challenges Access to ICT technologies is only part of the future equation for delivery of health and education in the circumpolar region. For the foreseeable future, the need for timely and appropriate personal consultations and services provided by highly trained professionals will still be required. The great geographic distances that characterize most northern jurisdictions will continue to require the use of air and ground transport to bring patients to larger centers for specialized treatments. Even in the best case scenario, many challenges will impede the future ability of the least privileged Northerners to live healthy and productive lives. For example, Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) 14, may be as high as 5.6 cases per thousand amongst some northern Indigenous populations. Other estimates place this number significantly higher. 15 Children with FASD experience a number of physical and mental disabilities that require specific and personal interventions throughout their entire life. FASD is an intergenerational problem. Communities which have already had significant numbers of FASD babies born will continue to struggle with the direct and indirect social impacts for many decades to come. The cost of transportation to major service centres in the South is expensive, and is mainly born by the government. Very few individuals living in remote communities north of the 60 th parallel have the financial means to cover the costs related to medical evacuation or sending their children away to school. Time delays also have implications for health outcomes. In the future, technological innovations, such as temporary cryogenics to stabilize critical patients and smart technologies that monitor and stabilize vital signs will contribute to improved health outcomes if they are affordable and available. Equality and accessibility of service could remain an ongoing challenge. Should governments of the future be unable to fully finance basic services, only those working for progressive employers or those with significant personal wealth will be able to receive the services needed to ensure the health and prosperity of their families. People in northern urban centres will continue to be advantageously positioned since the provision of many health and educational services will continue to be centralized in larger communities. Future expansion of transportation infrastructure will play a critical role in improving access for remote northern communities and cutting costs. In most instances, 14 Fetal Alcohol Syndrome Surveillance Network, "Fetal Alcohol Syndrome - Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and New York, ," Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 51, 20 (May 24, 2002), pp , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 15 Alberta Centre for Child, Family and Community Research, University of Calgary 33

43 investments in transportation infrastructure will occur as a result of local economic development or the construction of military installations rather than social need. Regardless, expansions to the transportation systems in the North will result in significant improvements to the local standard of living, including health and education. Impacted communities will gain distinct advantages with respect to timely access to services such as healthcare and education. The role of community caregivers and service providers is pivotal to changing the future trajectory for those in the North who are likely to be marginalized in the face of change. Despite attainment of self-government, most Indigenous populations have yet to assume control of the delivery of health care and education within their communities. The community-based response systems that do exist are often led by local people (in many cases women) who have a deep and vested interest in the community. Even with the significant advances expected in the fields of tele-health and tele-education, the ability to place required expertise into remote communities and smaller urban centers is likely to remain an ongoing challenge. Miniaturization and simplification of the machine/user interface have improved the portability of many medical devices. Increasingly they can be used by lay practitioners in non-clinical settings such as remote northern communities. Targeted education of women so that they may assume key roles in the community, including the delivery of healthcare and educational services, would make significant future impacts, especially for those Northerners living in disadvantaged socio-economic situations. As indigenous people gain more capacity at the community level, it is reasonable to expect that they will assume more control over health and educational program design and delivery, which may also result in better long-term health and educational outcomes. In the future, collaborative efforts across political boundaries could provide better and more affordable health and education outcomes. As mentioned previously, Nunavut has some of the poorest health and educational outcomes in Canada while Greenland, a near neighbour, has affordable and effective programs. People in Iqaluit, Nunavut would have much to gain if they looked for collaborative opportunities with Nuuk, Greenland. 16 While much of the preceding discussion has focused on the socially and economically disadvantaged, certain segments of the most affluent people living in the circumpolar region will also face health and educational challenges due to unhealthy or high risk behaviours. Sedentary lifestyles and diets high in fat, sugar and sodium will continue to erode population health and productivity. A certain number will continue to drop out of educational programs and consequently fail to achieve their full social and economic 16 Young, K and Chatwood, S, (2011). Healthcare in the North: what Canada can learn from its circumpolar neighbours? CMAJ February 8, :

44 potential. Furthermore, the incidence of depression and suicide may well be a mounting issue amongst all populations of the Northern Rim Countries, especially if the future holds disruptive and/or catastrophic change. Ensuring universal access to health and education for every Northerner now and in the future is an extremely complex and expensive challenge. Large and ongoing future expenditures for infrastructure, technologies, and skill development at the regional and community levels are required. Specific opportunity areas exist for improving the future delivery of health and education in the circumpolar region. These include: 1. Using advanced digital technologies to: monitor and analyse health conditions of individuals, enable and optimize the delivery of appropriate and affordable education and health care services, ensure timely and effective access to health and education services for every northern citizen regardless of where they live, create economic opportunities for Northerners in the fields of health and education, and empower individuals and communities to take a larger role in service provision and support. 2. Placing greater emphasis on the links between future wellbeing and health and education. 3. Allowing all Northerners to be active partners in the design, implementation and delivery of the health and educational services they consume. 4. Improving transportation availability and lowering costs drives up the standard of living. All Northerners will benefit should such investments be made, but the benefits accruing to the most disadvantaged and the very young will be the greatest. Summary The delivery of fundamental services such as health and education across the vast and diverse northern landscape presents many challenges that are difficult to surmount. Advances in digital technologies, including the web-based delivery of health and education services, have great potential to address these challenges and reduce delivery costs. However, personal intervention will remain an important component of future health and education services. While it is conceivable that in the future, digital technologies could become part of every household (even those in the most remote northern locations), it is far from assured that 35

45 this will happen or that the envisioned improvements to the quality of health and education will transpire as desired. Significant amounts of money and considerable skills are required to ensure optimal outcomes for those living in lower socio-economic conditions. The financial and other resources needed may not be available for many decades if a protracted global recession arises and future governments are fiscally constrained. In some situations where it is financially beneficial or the right incentives exist, corporations may take on a larger role in the delivery of health and educational services, but this will not be universal and may result in a user pay model. Even in the best-case scenario, some citizens of the North face bleak futures due to socio-economic determinants beyond their control. To improve lifelong outcomes for those impacted by disease, addiction, and FASD will require targeted services at the community level. The empowerment of community caregivers through education and support services will make important improvements in the quality of life of these people in the coming decades. In a worse-case scenario, if climate change and global recession indefinitely postpones northern development, those living in the most impacted regions of the North will face significant social and economic challenges. To ensure the highest levels of social and economic resiliency in a rapidly changing circumpolar region, universal delivery of health and education must become a leading priority for all the Northern Rim Countries. 36

46

47 Future Economic Opportunities in the Circumpolar Region Future economic opportunities of the Global North are driven by the same general forces that govern such opportunities elsewhere: demands for goods and services that can be supplied by individuals, companies, communities, regions or countries. The demands can be for tangible goods (such as minerals, oil, gas and food), intangible goods (such as cultural experiences) and services (such as education, health care, insurance and finance). The demands can occur within a community or region, or they may occur between communities or regions. Economic opportunities are realized when: there is an interest and willingness of the providers of goods and services to satisfy the demands in a manner and at a cost that meets the expectations of the recipients of the goods and services; the goods and services can be provided in a manner that meets local, regional, national and, increasingly, international expectations of development, safety and environmental sustainability; the ownership of goods, whether natural resources or derived from natural resources, is clearly established and the owners are willing to sell the goods; new technology is introduced that disrupts the status quo and offers consumers better costs and service. As stated before, the Global North is large and varied, with diverse histories, cultures, traditions, economies and forms of governments. These complexities will persist in the long-term, partly due to increased importance of the North to the South. The South is also heterogeneous and will place different future demands on the North. For example, China s demands will probably focus on natural resources (particularly minerals, oil and gas), while the demands from the United States and Europe may also include fresh water and environmental protection. The objectives of this chapter are to: explore economic opportunities resulting from the important forces and factors shaping the world and the Global North, outline the types of organizations that could emerge from the forces and factors as well as their interactions; draw conclusions and identify gaps in knowledge, thereby providing guidance on future work. Consistent with the Global North 2050 Project, the objectives are viewed from the perspective of the long-term future. 38

48 Principal Forces and Factors Governing Future Economic Opportunities The long-term economic opportunities of the Global North are governed by the interaction of four principal forces and factors. Demands The principal future demands for goods and services from the North will result from the needs of the South. The prevailing view is that the world s population, economic activity and demand for goods, especially natural resources and food, will continue to grow. The global population is forecast to reach approximately 9 billion by 2050 (compared with 7 billion in 2012) and the global standard of living is also expected to rise. It is commonly assumed that the mix of goods and services will remain largely unchanged. In particular, it is usually assumed that the demand for petroleum as a source of transportation fuels will continue to grow. If these conditions prevail, they will result in increased demands for goods and services from the North since it is unlikely that the global demands can be met by the South alone. Scenarios 1 and 4 (see Appendix D) reflect these conditions. However, there is no certainty that the prevailing view regarding growing demands from the South are the only plausible possibilities. If the geo-economic systems become impaired or fail (i.e., the financial systems of the world or important regions of the world deteriorate), economic growth and investments will diminish, leading to reduced demands for goods and services globally, including goods and services from the North. This possibility is reflected in Scenarios 2 and 3 (see Appendix D). Special consideration needs to be given to the demand for petroleum. On a global basis, approximately two-thirds of petroleum is presently used to produce gasoline and diesel fuel for transportation purposes. If future transportation systems are powered by electricity or bio-fuels (possibilities, but not certainties) the global demand for petroleum will fall. This fall will make petroleum from the North uncompetitive because it is generally more expensive to produce than petroleum from Southern sources and it is more distant from major markets. The substitution of petroleum-based energy for transportation is motivated by concerns (especially in the major industrial countries) about long-term security of petroleum supplies, climate change resulting from the emission of CO 2, and trade imbalances between major petroleum consuming and producing countries. Similar concerns are unlikely to apply to minerals since substitutions are more difficult and there are fewer concerns about greenhouse gases. 39

49 The South s demands for intangible goods and services from the North are distinct from those of tangible goods. Northern intangible goods will be primarily tourism, culture (including art and literature) and environmental stewardship, all drawing on the history and characteristics of the North and its people. These demands can be expected to rise as the interest of Southerners in the North grows and the North becomes more accessible and better known. In addition to the demands from the South, there will be a growing demand for goods and services by Northerners. Important examples of goods are fuels and food. At present, most fuels and food are shipped to the North from the South, incurring high costs and limiting their availability. However, Northern communities can be expected to become more self-sufficient in future, drawing on their own energy sources, particularly local oil and gas, wind and geothermal energy. These energy sources will be used for local commercial and domestic activities. They may also be used for fresh food production under enclosed conditions (such as artificially illuminated greenhouses) essential for year-round operation. Given the growing numbers, distinct cultures and special needs of the people in the North, there are increasing demands for educational, health, administrative, legal and financial services. In order to meet the special requirements and aspirations of the people of the North, they will have to be supplied in new ways, such as new forms of public and private organizations. Furthermore, these organizations must accommodate the rights of aboriginal, regional and national governments, as well as national and multi-national corporations. The aforementioned demands are applicable throughout the North although specifics vary. For example, Canada s North is thinly populated and heavily influenced by aboriginal issues, while the Nordic European regions are closer to major economic centres and have larger populations with more clearly established roles of Indigenous peoples. Supply Relative to most other regions of the world, the geographical North is unexplored. This is particularly true for the Arctic Ocean and its islands. The lack of detailed information notwithstanding, the North is estimated to contain a sizeable fraction of global reserves, and the potential to supply the South therefore exists. Northern natural resources have long been a focus of Southern interests and several major industrial operations have resulted. Amongst these are world-scale mining as well as oil and gas operations. Examples are: 40

50 Zinc: Red Dog Mine, Alaska, USA Nickel: Voisey s Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada Nickel-copper-palladium: Norilsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia Diamonds: Diavik and Ekati, Northwest Territories, Canada Iron ore: Kiruna, Sweden Oil: Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, USA; North Sea, Norway; Sakhalin Island, Russia Figure 7 shows the location of major petroleum prospects. Amongst them are: Oil and gas: Barents Sea, Norway and Russia; Beaufort Sea, Canada and USA; Sverdrup Basin, Canada, Denmark; Labrador Strait, Canada and Denmark Iron ore: Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada; Sweden; Norway Copper, nickel, zinc, precious metals: Finland; Russia; Alaska, USA; Canada Northern petroleum and mineral deposits are estimated to be large, even though their exact location and extent remain uncertain, pending further exploration. Similarly, the size and nature of Arctic marine life as a potential sustainable food source for the South is not well understood. By mid-century these important knowledge gaps will likely have been addressed, thereby providing much clearer insight into the resource potential of the North. However, even if the potential of Northern resources is proven to be high, operating under harsh Northern conditions is a major challenge, resulting in substantial higher costs than Southern operations. Furthermore, transportation of equipment, supplies, personnel and products is severely impacted by the harsh climate (especially sea ice) and the considerable distances to Southern markets. Climate change that results in higher temperatures may reduce the harshness of the conditions, but it will not eliminate them. By mid-century, there will still be significant ice on land and sea for much of the year, periods of high winds and, of course, long periods of darkness. Higher and more variable temperatures will lead to melting of permafrost, creating problems for physical infrastructure including buildings, bridges, port facilities, airport runways, roads and industrial operations. The natural resource potential of the North is therefore strongly impacted by factors other than the existence of the resources. Advances in technology can be expected to address many of these problems, but they require long lead times to undertake the necessary applied research, development and demonstrations. Similarly, considerable time and efforts are required to provide the necessary environmental assessment and mitigation measures necessary to conduct natural resource extraction in accordance with rising environmental standards. 41

51 Figure 7 Oil, Gas and Mineral Deposits 42

52 The determination of the North s natural resource potential, advancing technologies and ensuring high-quality environmental stewardship provide good opportunities for longterm and close collaboration amongst countries, regions, communities, governments and industrial organizations with interests in the Global North. The supply of Northern intangible goods, such as culture (including art and literature) and tourism to Southern markets has considerable long-term potential. The North has distinct cultures, art forms, histories and natural environments, most of which Southerners do not know or know only in outline form. They will therefore become of increasing interest, provided Southerners have the financial means to pursue them. The global economic environment will therefore strongly influence the supply of Northern intangible goods. However, as in the case of natural resources, the potential supply of Northern intangible goods to the South is adversely affected by distance, lack of infrastructure and harsh climatic conditions, all of which translate into high costs. An additional impediment is that the distinct cultures, art forms, histories and natural environments of the North remain to be fully documented. They are difficult to access and to share with Southerners. Aboriginal communities, educational institutions, government departments and international organizations (e.g., the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)) will play key roles in making Northern intangible goods accessible. In some jurisdictions it will largely be the decision of aboriginal communities whether to do so. These challenges are, in many respects, analogous to engaging in Northern natural resource extraction. Essential services such as education, health care, insurance and finance have typically been supplied by the South to the North. The services will become more important if Northern populations and economies grow and residents expect higher levels of service. By mid-century the point may well be reached where Northerners supply these services not only to other Northerners, but also to Southerners. Given efficient communications technologies, high educational levels and large pools of funds (potentially derived from royalties on natural resources), the North can become a major global supplier of services. Large-scale resource projects in the North are capital intensive and have major insurance needs that could, in future, be met partially by Northern organizations. This requires, of course, that ownership of natural resources be vested in Northerners and that more benefits flow to them. 43

53 Transportation The availability, reliability and cost of transportation have been key factors in Northern development and will remain so. With the exception of the European and some Russian Nordic regions, the North lacks major transportation infrastructure. Specifically, there are few: deep-water ports near existing population centres and major natural resource deposits; roads connecting Northern communities to the South or to the coast; railways; major airports that can handle large aircraft. Rising temperatures and melting permafrost are creating additional challenges, putting even existing infrastructure at risk. For example, portions of the runways of the airport in Iqaluit (Nunavut, Canada) are sinking and some shorelines of the North American Arctic are receding rapidly (see Figure 8). As well, recent warming trends have significantly reduced the longevity of ice roads, constructed to supply heavy goods by land during the winter months. These trends are expected to continue. Figure 8 Impacts of Temperature Rise in the Arctic a. b. a. Mean annual coastal erosion in Arctic Alaska (Beaufort Sea shoreline) Meters per year. 17 b. Rapidly eroding coastline in northeastern Alaska Many Strong Voices turning vulnerability into strength, 18 Arctic Coastal Erosion Doubles in 50 Years, Jackie Grom (Feb 2009) (Credit: Christopher Arp/USGS) 44

54 Population densities in the North are low compared with the South and most natural resource deposits are far from Southern markets. However, many of them occur in clusters or corridors. The economics of creating transportation infrastructure are therefore challenging, unless projects are large and benefit from economies of scale. Examples are the iron ore project of the Baffinland Corporation and the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline for natural gas; the latter experienced long delays in its approval due to environmental and aboriginal issues. Its long-term future remains uncertain due to the combination of high capital costs and currently low natural gas prices. High costs and unpredictable prices are typical conditions of major natural resource developments in the North and this will not change. To overcome the high-infrastructure costs of individual natural resource projects, the formation of transportation systems and corridors has been recommended. Examples are the transportation corridors suggested by PROLOG 19 for the Canadian Arctic (see Figure 8) and by European organizations for a European Arctic Railway (see Figures 9 and 10 respectively). In both cases the corridors would connect a number of mines with transportation systems consisting of ports, ships, roads and/or railways (see Figure 11). Figure 9 Northern Canadian Transportation Corridors Suggested by PROLOG PROLOG is a Canadian Consulting firm, see 45

55 Figure 10 Proposed Arctic Railway linking Eastern Europe to the Arctic. Source: Presentation by Marko Mäenpää, Liidea Oy/Ltd Consulting, Helsinki (Dec 2012) Figure 11 Finland s Operating and Potential Future Mines. Source 46

56 Surface transportation, especially transportation by water, will remain the most costeffective way of shipping Northern goods, especially minerals and bulk commodities. The challenge is to permit safe operations in harsh, especially ice-covered waters. Considerable advances in weather and ice forecasting, navigational aids and charts, marine technology and training can be expected. Not only will these advances enable the safe and more cost-effective way of delivering Northern resources to international markets, but they will also open up Arctic waters to international shipping between Southern ports. Arctic Ocean Transport In addition to transporting resources to and from the North, the Arctic Ocean has good potential as a sea route for linking East Asia with Western Europe and with Eastern North America. These are three of the world s most important markets. Table 1 shows the reductions in distance that Arctic Ocean routes can achieve over the traditional Shanghai to Rotterdam and Shanghai to New York routes. Table 1: Shanghai - Rotterdam and - New York distances for different routes 20 Route Distance Difference nm nm % Shanghai to Rotterdam Suez Canal 10,525 Polar Passage 7,300-3,225-31% Northern Sea Route 8,200-2,325-22% North West Passage 8,900-1,625-15% Cape of Good Hope 14,500 3,975 38% Shanghai to New York Panama Canal 10,582 Polar Passage 9, % North West Passage 9,450-1,132-11% Suez Canal 12,370 1,788 17% Cape of Good Hope 14,468 3,886 37% Cape Horn 16,746 6,164 58% The corresponding Arctic routes are shown in Figure 12. The Polar Passage is the sea route that crosses almost directly over the North Pole. 20 Adapted from B.N. Srinath, ARCTIC SHIPPING, Diss., City University London, School of Eng. & Math Sci, p 2-3 (June 2010). 47

57 Figure 12 Polar Passage Shipping Route Source Adapted from The reductions in distance are substantial, up to 31% for the Shanghai Rotterdam route. However, the reductions do not lead to similar costs savings because: the Arctic Ocean will not be completely ice free (even for some months of the year) thereby requiring more costly ice-strengthened vessels; stand-by support from ice breakers and rescue vessels will be required; ship crews will need to be specially qualified to operate under Arctic conditions. Srinath provides some cost estimates, which suggest that the conventional southern routes are still economically superior to the Arctic routes at present. However, this can be expected to change as Arctic traffic increases due to improved shipping technologies and traffic volumes. 21 In addition to container and cargo ships, there will also be an increased number of cruise ships to serve the future tourist industry. Their voyages will typically not cross 21 B.N. Srinath, ARCTIC SHIPPING, Diss., City University London, School of Eng. & Math Sci, p (June 2010). 48

58 the entire Arctic Ocean, but focus on certain regions only. The lack of ports and onshore facilities will substantially limit tourism. Arctic Arial Transport The present aviation infrastructure in the North is limited, although there are some major civilian and military airfields in Russia, Northern Europe and Alaska that can accommodate large aircraft. Small planes and helicopters provide important services in the North, especially to remote and small communities, but they are costly. Consequently, there is a clear need for a new and additional form of air transportation with comparatively low operating costs and high carrying capacity. Airships have been identified as such possibilities, both for long-range transport and to assist with offloading cargo from ships. Figure 13 shows some airship designs, which could mature into commercially viable transportation systems by mid-century. Figure 13 Airships Safety and Environment Safety and environmental issues are of utmost significance to realizing the potential of Northern economic opportunities. These issues are not only important to Northerners but also to people in the South who are increasingly concerned about them. The challenges include: 49

59 preventative and proactive measures (including training and monitoring) to ensure safety and environmental protection environmental protection against spills, especially oil and fuel spills rapid response to accidents degradation of landscapes and wildlife habitats land reclamation and restoration as operations progress and cease protection of water against contamination In addition, the impact of economic development on Northern cultures and life is of increasing concern. While economic development will increase the financial resources of Northerners, the benefits are often unequally distributed within communities and lead to tensions. These are all issues that call for better understanding through research, education, and organization, with full participation of Northerners at all levels, ranging from entry-level to senior leadership positions. Responses The forces, factors and trends governing economic opportunities in the North lead to the following responses: 1. Major Advances in the Understanding of the Economic Opportunities For The North The understanding of economic opportunities of the North is fundamental to its longterm future. The understanding must not be restricted to economics, natural resources, technology, climate and the environment, but it must also include the social sciences, humanities and culture. Without the latter, Northern communities will not be sustainable and healthy. The understanding can be achieved through research, education and partnerships. It must extend to characterizing the major, long-term emerging demands presented by the South and the North. 2. Major Advances in Science and Technology Current knowledge is, in many cases, inadequate to undertake major new economic operations in the North. Advances in science and technology are needed to make Northern operations (including transportation) safe, environmentally sustainable and cost-competitive. These advances can be achieved through collaboration between people and organizations in the North and South. Traditional knowledge held by the indigenous people of the North will be a valuable asset that complements scientific studies regarding, in particular, the environment and changing climates. 50

60 Possible Economic Models for the North Given the complexity and challenges of the North, including its challenging relationships with the South, it is important to consider the emergence of different economic models and organizations in the North by While there may be parallel developments in the South, the transformations in the North will likely be greater. Seven distinct economic models were identified at JIF 2011 as long-term future possibilities. In each case the principal values that drive the model were identified, together with the assumptions regarding prevailing conditions, followed by the attributes that describe the models. I. Resource Conservation Model Value: Creativity and ideas Assumptions: Either steady market demands for Northern resources or the possibility of limited markets for resources due to falling demands Advanced ICT technologies and skills available Attributes: Oil and minerals left in the ground, or used sparingly to fund this modest society Self-identification: 'Northern identity' equals empowerment Ecological lifestyle; connected to the land and traditional values Self-sustaining Creative work (in the digital world) is highly valued in the North and elsewhere Focus on physical fitness and spiritual life; wealth not just monetary No aboriginal enclaves; citizens of aboriginal origin participate fully in all aspects of society II. Population-driven Model Value: Food production Assumptions: The North is a 'bank' of assets, e.g., energy, minerals for the global population Northern-based food 'factories' and greenhouses exist, complementing or supplanting traditional forms of agriculture Most Northerners move elsewhere, leaving a very small population in the North with resultant local labour shortages Robots are used for resource extraction and food factory production Attributes: Derivatives of oil and minerals used for food support systems, e.g., energy for growing food, fuel for food distribution systems and fertilizers 51

61 World population of 9 billion is mainly urban; its greatest need is food The North extracts as much carbon-based energy and minerals as possible to feed as many people as possible. Arctic Ocean used primarily as a source of food, with heavy emphasis on aquaculture III. Sovereignty Model Value: Independence Assumptions: In Canada, the oil and other resources of the North are owned by the Crown (i.e., the State) and controlled by the Federal Government The people of the North have little control and receive few direct benefits from their resources Roads no longer exist in the North; efficient air transportation has eliminated the need for roads and rail lines Attributes: Northern regions (e.g., Alaska, Nunavut, Greenland) strive to separate their historical connections in a wave of autonomy movements. For example: - Canadian Arctic becomes a separate, autonomous region/country - Greenland separates from Denmark and becomes an independent country Effective, independent decision making in the North by Northerners Sovereign control of resources and their development by Northerners Independent social and political systems in the North Newly-independent countries of the Global North form an 'Arctic Union' or a 'Commonwealth of the North' (community of shared jurisdictions and common interests) IV. Saudi Arabian (Wealth) Model Value: Wealth from natural resources Assumptions: Northerners share similarities with Saudis of pre-oil wealth days - nomadic people living in remote, large and sparsely populated regions Enhanced autonomy (variant of sovereignty model) and enhanced resource extraction through private/public partnerships could result in significant wealth, to be shared among Northerners Restricted citizenship in the North Changes to legislation, resource ownership regulations, land claim settlements and development of resources Northerners and their 52

62 interests rule 'Staggering' population growth through in-migration, including foreign migrant workers for menial jobs Note: The Saudi model is a utopian view; a Nigerian dystopian view is also possible. Attributes: Wealth from local resources is generated and retained in the North and makes every Northern citizen a millionaire All basic needs (housing, food, education) of every Northern citizen are met by the state (local government) Time is the luxury commodity - wealth allows time and opportunity to develop 'Arctic culture' and a learning society with invited artists and professionals The North develops its own food supply (food factories and greenhouses) that supports self-sufficiency OR the North is totally dependent on the outside world for products and knowledge purchased with natural resource revenues High consumption rates Capital investments in other industries and other regions to diversify the economy V. Industrial Model Value: Environmentally-friendly carbon production and trade Assumptions: Availability of indigenous capital for industrial production Demands for Northern products Efficient transportation corridors to carry raw materials to the South and good roads/rail/marine/air services exist to carry products, services and people to the North Sophisticated, educated population in the North - education is the key to success of this model Aboriginal rights/land claims dealt with in a more sophisticated, timely manner Technical capacity Attributes: Export carbon and ores (such as iron, lead, zinc) as raw materials to the South; import goods and services into the North Produce carbon-based products using advanced forms of nuclear power and geothermal energy to protect the Arctic environment; no local refining or upgrading Use renewable energy sources for local energy production 53

63 VI. Banking for the Future Model Value: Natural resources stay in the ground and are 'banked' for future generations Assumptions: Resources are available for future generations to exploit Cooperation with other societies that do not have oil, gas and/or minerals Attributes: Northerners may sell rights to exploit resources in 100 years Resources have value, but there may be limited demand, or it is hard to move the products to market, or there is limited capital available Global companies may be working elsewhere due to unfavorable conditions in the North The hydrocarbon economy collapses and must be replaced by other sources of economic activity, e.g., eco-tourism Low stress levels in communities; opportunities to address communal issues VII. Indigenous Capitalist Model Value: Rent (return on investment) Assumptions: Youth-driven, representing a generational shift Education is essential to gain required skills and experience Dependence on global demand for resources and sound transportation links to markets Shared governance, with local capital and local decision making Attributes: Compatible with most other models Corporatist capitalism Partnerships between aboriginal people/northerners and big companies Shared wealth Capacity building at the individual and collective levels Aboriginal people have access to capital through land claim settlements that can be used, given sophisticated business skills, to work with corporations in public/private partnerships to jointly exploit natural resources Northerners have financial, but not necessarily managerial, control of partnerships Local co-ops for Northerners to bring in food, sell goods, work together and build communities Shared governance 54

64 . Proposed 2010 Route for Arctic Link The proposed Arctic Link system will provide low latency, secure, high capacity broadband connectivity between the East and the West via a cable running from Japan to the Aleutian Islands in Alaska, through the Bering Straits then along the northern coast of Canada, around the southern tip of Greenland and across the northern portion of the Atlantic Ocean to the United Kingdom. This fibre optic link that would improve digital communication services in the Circumpolar Region and between major global trading nations 55

65 Conclusions Many factors are at play in the world today that could alter the expected course of events north of the 60 th parallel over coming decades. The degree and pace of climate change, the future of global financial markets, and the global demand for natural resources are all major forces that introduce a high degree of uncertainty when one explores the long-term future of the circumpolar region. Climate change, in particular, is a game changer in the circumpolar region. To a point, warming in northern latitudes will open up the polar seas and raise the stakes for those jurisdictions that have sovereign interests. Beyond that point, the rapid release of methane trapped in the permafrost, rising sea levels, and changes to ocean currents may disrupt global systems of food production, commerce and threaten global security. Reactive decisions may ultimately be taken in the South that will have profound implications for northern jurisdictions. Indigenous people of the North currently hold strategic positions, which if used wisely, can improve their future well-being. However, significant challenges lie ahead in terms of overcoming socio-economic barriers and building the skills and capacities required for successful engagement in a global economy. Targeted and equitable health and education programs aimed at the most disadvantaged are necessary to build the capacity of Indigenous populations to interact in a globalized world. The future ability of governments to provide such programs could be seriously jeopardized by prolonged geo-economic recession. Digital technologies have a major role to play in alleviating the isolation of remote northern communities and improving the delivery of services. The expansion of communications infrastructure should be done in a manner which creates a seamless system with universal accessibility so that all Northerners can capitalize on the opportunities presented by web-based technologies. In the future, those unable to become digitally connected risk becoming socially and economically marginalized. Future economic opportunities of the North are strongly dependent on demands from the South for Northern goods and services. In the case of moving Northern goods to global markets, transportation plays a critical role. Lack of infrastructure is a major impediment to progress. Climate change may facilitate transportation in the North if sea ice recedes but melting permafrost may impede the development of northern landbased transportation infrastructure (roads, railroads, docks, airports, etc.). If global 56

66 demands for Northern natural resources exist, the financial resources to remedy the infrastructure deficits could be available. Of the seven distinct economic models that were developed as long-term future possibilities for the North, the Indigenous Capitalist Model is probably the most innovative. It is based on partnerships between aboriginal people/northerners and big companies, sharing of wealth, capacity building at the individual and collective levels and giving aboriginal people access to capital through land claim settlements. The latter would be used to acquire sophisticated business skills and to work with corporations in public/private partnerships. The remote landscapes of the North need more people to facilitate economic development; especially those who have a passion for the North, know how to cope in the unique circumpolar context, and who have the skills and ambition to participate in the global economy. If new and expanded economic opportunities can be created in the North, the recruitment of skilled labor will remain a major challenge. Migration into the north will create growth pressures in some northern urban centres. In other jurisdictions, the demographic dilution of Indigenous populations will pose a number of social and political challenges. Under any future scenario for the North, effective, accountable and equitable governance is required to attract and retain investment. Issues such as outstanding Indigenous claims to land and other rights and a lack of international collaboration and legal structures remain threats to future development opportunities. The imperative for internationally recognized regulations and standards to mitigate the future impact of increasing human activity in the North will continue to grow as the circumpolar geopolitical context continues to change. Strong institutions and wise cohesive governance are essential prerequisites for peaceful progress toward sustainable future northern development. It can be firmly concluded that there is a strong possibility for the North becoming, in the longer term, highly significant to the South. Except for relatively short periods of time (such as the Cold War), the North held little importance for the South. Climate change, the North s natural resources and rising demands for the resources by the South could place the North at the centre of world attention. While there is no certainty that this will happen, it cannot be discounted and the implications for specific Southern jurisdictions (including Alberta) need to be assessed. Uncertainty about the future of the North is not in itself, detrimental. Uncertainty creates the opportunity for exploration, positive change and the development of resilient new 57

67 approaches. One of the greatest assets of the North is that so much is only just beginning. It is the ambition of the participants in the Global North 2050 Project to identify positive actions which they or their respective organizations can undertake today, that will ensure that robust and enduring policies, investments, and actions in the North preserve environmental integrity, enable social development, and increase economic prosperity over the coming decades. 58

68 Deep Sea Port in Murmansk, Russia

69 Go Forward Actions Based in the insights presented in this report, the complexity and diversity of issues pertaining to the future of the Circumpolar Region and the desire to ensure sustainable development, the following actions are recommended: 1. Capitalizing on Opportunities Provided by Digital Technologies Digital technologies offer solutions to the challenges posed by the remote landscapes, and harsh environments that characterize large portions of the circumpolar region. Although the provision of ICT infrastructure into the North is of high importance, the primary challenge is effectively deploying digital technologies to satisfy the demands of Northern health care delivery, education, business and commerce. Effective deployment includes training, developing applications for which there is a demand (in the North and the South) and partnering with experts wherever they may reside. 2. Meeting Infrastructure Needs Climate change, technological advances (enabling, for example, shipping in icecovered waters and year-round mineral exploration) and rising expectations of Northerners for higher standards of living, require new and improved physical infrastructure in the North. In particular, there are strong needs in the areas of ports, airports, roads and utilities (including energy supply, fresh water supply and waste water disposal). Receding permafrost and its associated problems pose major challenges to physical infrastructure and, thereby, create business opportunities. 3. Operating in Remote and Harsh Environments Radically new and improved equipment and systems are needed to operate under changing Northern conditions. Such systems include transportation systems, with airships holding particular promise as a means of serving remote Northern communities and expanded railways to serve natural resource developments of the type already envisaged for the iron ore deposits on Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada. 4. Developing Business in and for the North The future quality of life of most Northerners, and to some degree many living in the South, will be critically dependent on the sustainability and profitability of businesses in and related to the North. As previously described in the section on Future Economic Opportunities in the Circumpolar Region, different economic models may evolve in the North. These models need to be characterized in greater depth and 60

70 evaluated, taking into account the diversity of the prevailing business, social and cultural conditions throughout the North and the world. 5. Governance Governance at all levels (i.e., local, regional, national and international) has a profound influence over life and commercial activities in the North. Governance issues related to the Circumpolar Region must be addressed in accordance with the principles of law and respect for human rights. While the importance of governance is clearly recognized in this report and the preceding deliberations in the Jasper Innovation Forum, it is the responsibility of Governments to address these issues. With the exception of two important municipal leaders, the participants in the Forum did not represent Government. No specific recommendations are therefore made in this report to address governance. However, it is strongly recommended that this subject be addressed by leaders of government. The participants in the Jasper Innovation Forum would undoubtedly be interested in providing their support and sharing their perspectives. With the exception of Governance, the aforementioned four areas recommended for action are well suited to be addressed collaboratively by representatives from the Northern Rim Countries and others with strong interests and expertise regarding the North. Readers of this report with such interests should contact the authors for further information regarding future work on the Global North 2050 Project. Consistent with its mandate, AITF s Foresight Group will focus its efforts on recommendations that have strong technological components and will lead to increased commerce in Alberta. 61

71 Appendices A: Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 Program B: Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 Participants C: Jasper Innovation Forum Discussion Guide D: Scenario Stories about the World in 2050 E: Quick Facts About The North F: Map of Selected Natural Resources G: Map of Northern Transportation Routes H: International Sea Boundaries In The Arctic 62

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73 == APPENDIX A: Jasper Innovation Forum (JIF 2011) Program November 22-25, 2011 Nov 22 Tuesday Opening session 11:30 Bus departs from AITF (250 Karl Clark Rd, Edmonton) for Sandman Inn (10111 Ellerslie Road SW, Edmonton) 12:00 Bus departs Sandman Inn for Jasper 16:00 Arrive in Jasper. Check-in at Fairmont Jasper Park Lodge. 16:45 Registration and Coffee (Clubhouse) 17:15 Welcome, introductions, statement of JIF 2011 objectives, contexts and integration. (Clubhouse) 19:15 Welcoming Dinner (Clubhouse) 19:45 Keynote Speaker Dr. Gwynne Dyer Nov 23 Wednesday Imagining the North of 2050 and Start of Focus Group Work 07:15 Hot and cold breakfast (Club House) 08:30 Opening remarks by Dr. Axel Meisen (Club House) 09:00 Imagining the North of plenary format (Club House) 10:00 Break. 10:30 Imagining the North of plenary format 12:30 Buffet lunch (Club House) 13:30 Open time for informal discussion 14:30 Focus group work (Club House) Refreshments available in Clubhouse foyer. 17:30 Adjournment. 18:30 Cash bar (Main Building) 19:00 Dinner (Main Building) 19:45 Informal fireside conversation and networking with cash bar (Main Building) Nov 24 Thursday Focus Group Work 07:15 Hot and cold breakfast (Club House) 08:00 Keynote Speaker - Dr. Rob Huebert (Club House) 09:00 Break 09:30 Plenary discussion (Club House) 10:30 Focus group work continues (Club House) 12:00 Buffet lunch (Club House) 12:30 Open Time for informal discussion 13:30 Focus group work continue Refreshments available in Clubhouse foyer 15:30 Preparation of final presentations by Focus groups 17:00 Adjournment 18:00 Cash bar followed by Dinner (Main Building) 19:30 Special Holiday event (Main Building) Nov 25 Friday Focus Group Presentations and Discussion 07:30 Hot and cold Breakfast (Club House) and hotel check out. 08:30 Formal reporting from each focus group consisting of a presentation lasting approximately 35 minute followed by 25 minutes of discussion (Club House) 9:30 Break 10:00 Formal reporting continues 12:00 Buffet Lunch (Club House) 13:00 Plenary discussion of future actions and next steps for the Global North 2050 Project (Club House) 14:30 Closing remarks and adjournment. 15:00 Bus departs Jasper 19:30 Arrive in Edmonton Sandman Inn and AITF (Edmonton) 64

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75 APPENDIX B: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 PARTICIPANTS Ms. Helena Acheson, Senior Consultant MFG Baden-Württemberg Stuttgart, Germany Dr. Gary Albach, President and CEO Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Ms. Christy Benedict, Foresight Strategist Environment and Water, Government of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Mr. Glenn Blackwood, Executive Director and CEO Fisheries and Marine Institute of Memorial University St. John s, Newfoundland, Canada Mr. Kells Boland, Project Manager PROLOG Canada Inc. Calgary, Alberta, Canada Ms. Bev Buckway, Mayor City of Whitehorse Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada Ms. Kim Chretien, Policy Analyst Health Canada Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Dr. Ruth Collins-Nakai, Physician and Board Member Alberta Health Services Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Ms. Royce Conlon, Principal PDC Inc. Engineers Fairbanks, Alaska, USA Mr. Kim Devooght, Vice President, Public Sector Canada Cisco Systems Canada Co. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Dr. Gwynne Dyer, Author and Journalist London, UK Mr. Peter Gaffney, Dominie Enterprises Hampshire, UK Mr. Dale George, Buoyant Aircraft Systems International Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada 66

76 APPENDIX B: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 PARTICIPANTS Ms. Barbara Girard, Business Consultant Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Mrs. Jen Godden, Executive Assistant to the President and CEO Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Dr. Randy Goebel, Vice President, AI Academy Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Mr. Robert Hall, Manager, Innovation Services Centre for Research & Innovation, Grande Prairie Regional College Grande Prairie, Alberta, Canada Dr. Barbara Heinzen, President, Barbets Duet New Baltimore, New York, USA Mr. Hannu Hernesniemi, Research Director Etlatieto Ltd. (The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy ETLA) Helsinki, Finland Dr. Robert Huebert, Associate Director, Centre for Military and Strategic Studies University of Calgary Calgary, Alberta, Canada Mr. Kim Johnson, Regulatory Coordinator, Northern Development Shell Canada Limited Calgary, Alberta, Canada Dr. Don Juzwishin, Director, Health Technology Assessment & Innovation Alberta Health Services Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Ms. Danika Littlechild, Barrister and Solicitor Chair, Sectorial Commission on Culture, Communication and Information Canadian Commission for UNESCO Hobbema, Alberta, Canada Mr. Erik Lizee, Integrated Risk Manager Advisor, Integrated Risk Management Office Environment and Water, Government of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Dr. Lois Macklin, Principal Business Advisor Foresight Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Dr. Axel Meisen, Chair, Foresight Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Edmonton, Alberta, Canada 67

77 APPENDIX B: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 PARTICIPANTS Dr. Wolfgang Michalski, Managing Director WM International: Strategic Analysis & Policy Advice Paris, France Mr. Riel Miller, President Xperidox Futures Consulting Paris, France Ms. Lauren Moslow, University of Calgary Calgary, Alberta, Canada Dr. Victor Okhonin, Senior Research Associate, Berezovski Research Group Bioanalytical and Molecular Interaction (BioAMI) Laboratory University of Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Dr. Shirley Pasieka, Dean, School of Health, Wellness and Career Studies Grande Prairie Regional College Grande Prairie, Alberta, Canada Dr. Shane Renwick, Director, Animal Health Science Foresight Canadian Food Inspection Agency Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Senator Bill Rompkey, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Dr. Donna Romyn, Dean, Faculty of Health Disciplines Centre for Nursing and Health Studies Athabasca University Athabasca, Alberta, Canada Mrs. Rhonda Sarnoski, Executive Assistant, AI Academy Alberta Innovates Technology Futures Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Dr. David Secord, Director, Strategic Programs Tides Canada Foundation Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Mr. Jeffrey Simpson, National Affairs Columnist The Globe and Mail Toronto, Ontario, Canada Ms. Leah Soroka, Director, S&T Foresight and Science Promotion Division Science Policy Directorate Health Canada Ottawa, Canada 68

78 APPENDIX B: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 PARTICIPANTS Mr. David Spink, Principal, Pravid Environmental Inc. St. Albert, Alberta, Canada Mrs. Valerie Spink, Instructor, Grant McEwan University St. Albert, Alberta, Canada Mr. Bob Steele, Director, Cavendish Investing Calgary, Alberta, Canada Mr. Norman Storch, Food Producer Hanna, Alberta, Canada Mr. David Strong, Manager, Arctic Management Office Canadian Air Division, Department of National Defence Government of Canada Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada Dr. Howard Tennant, Professor of Management and President emeritus The University of Lethbridge Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada Dr. Scott Tiffin, VP New Products and Business Development CANATEC Associates International Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, Canada Mr. Gordon Van Tighem, Mayor, City of Yellowknife Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada Mr. Brian Wagg, Manager, C-FER Technologies Inc. Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Dr. Anna Zamay, Research Scientist, Berezovski Research Group Bioanalytical and Molecular Interaction (BioAMI) Laboratory University of Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario, Canada 69

79 APPENDIX C: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 DISCUSSION GUIDE JIF 2011DISCUSSION GUIDE The principal goal of the Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 (JIF 2011) is to engage in highly creative results- and action-oriented thinking that will lead to sustainable and responsible development of the Global North. The timeframe of 2050 was selected to ensure that the deliberations are truly forward looking and are not simple extrapolations of current trends. It is expected that JIF 2011 will lead to new insights and understandings regarding this important subject. The following focal question has been posed: By 2050, what changes might occur in the Global North? Closely associated, subsidiary questions are: What could be the reasons for the change? What and who might be the change agents? What might be the implications of the changes? What actions should be taken now to maximize future opportunities and minimize problems? By examination of the future forces and factors impacting the north, starting with the expansion and transformation of transportation and communication systems, it is possible to anticipate patterns of development in the circumpolar region over the next forty years. To facilitate the development of responses to the main focal question and the subsidiary questions, which are inherently large and complex, three major topics have been identified for further in-depth consideration: 1. Health and Education 2. Economic Opportunities 3. Governance Challenges This Guide should be read in conjunction with the concept papers on JIF 2011 and the Global North 2050 Project. a

80 APPENDIX C: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 DISCUSSION GUIDE Group Membership and Deliverables The JIF 2011 participants have been divided into three groups of approximately ten persons, with the membership shown in the attachment. The membership assignments have been made to reflect the expertise, interests, gender and other attributes of the participants. Each group has a designated leader to facilitate and guide the work, ensuring collaboration and stimulating approaches by all members. As the group work progresses, it is likely that some overlap will occur. Please consider other groups as a resource and partner who are available for information and collaboration. The JIF 2011 program has been designed in such a way that there are opportunities during the informal breaks (refreshment breaks, lunches, dinners, etc.) and the plenary sessions to explore and integrate overlapping ideas. The expected deliverables from each group are: A 35 minute power point presentation. The presentation should provide an indepth review of the discussions, insights and conclusions of each group. Included should be the presentation of key recommendations for actions that can be undertaken today to ensure sustainable and responsible development in northern jurisdictions. The presentations will be delivered on Friday, November 25 th. Each group will be given one hour time (35 minutes to present followed by 25 minutes of questions and discussion). The presentations will form the basis for a plenary discussion to synthesise the recommendations and to develop a vision for subsequent phases of the Global North 2050 Project. Evaluation Criteria and Perspectives To ensure that the insights and final recommendations of the groups and JIF 2011 are creative, innovative and impactful, the following evaluation criteria are suggested: - They do not exist in the mainstream at present. - They are scientifically and technically feasible. - They empower individuals and/or jurisdictions. - They are desirable to use or implement in the Global North context. - They make major contributions to the future health, prosperity, and well-being of northern people, and - They have significant economic impact and/or commercial potential in the North, the South, or both. b

81 APPENDIX C: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 DISCUSSION GUIDE While groups are asked to give particular consideration to building wealth and opportunity in northern jurisdictions, the needs of the South should not be overlooked. Group Topics As stated above, each group has been assigned one of three major topics. To initiate and facilitate the group discussions, some major questions and points of consideration are offered by the JIF 2011 organizers. They are put forward in the spirit of guidance; in no way are they intended to constrain the conversation and thinking. Group 1: Health and Education By 2050, what changes may occur in the delivery of health and educational services into northern jurisdictions? What are the reasons for these changes and what are the implications? What will be the role of transportation and communications technologies in the delivery of health and educational services to Northern Jurisdictions? What future social challenges may need to be addressed? What might be the governance issues related to the delivery of health and educational services in new and innovative ways? Will the delivery of health and educational services result in future economic opportunities? Who should lead the changes and how might it be financed? What actions/decisions should be taken now to ensure responsible delivery of health and educational services into the North by 2050? Group 2: Economic Opportunities By 2050, what economic opportunities might emerge as a result of changes in the global north? What is likely to drive future economic growth in the Global North? What will new economic opportunities demand from the transportation and communication systems in the coming decades? Who might be the future economic players in northern development? How might the opportunities be financed and who could provide the financing? c

82 APPENDIX C: JASPER INNOVATION FORUM 2011 DISCUSSION GUIDE What are the implications of capitalizing on northern economic opportunities? What will be required of future governance systems to ensure sustainable economic growth in the Global North? What might be the implications of economic development have on the education and health of people living in northern jurisdictions? What actions should be taken now to encourage new economic opportunities related to the Global North? Group 3: Governance 22 By 2050, what might be the major governance challenges of the Global North (e.g., environmental, economic, social, and political)? What might be the geo-political implications of the challenges? What changes might be required in the governance of the Global North? Who might be the instigators of change? What governance challenges could emerge as transportation and communication systems expand in the Global North? What might be the social and economic implications of changes to the governance structures of the North? Who might finance new governance approaches? What decisions/actions should be taken now to strengthen future governance of the Global North? 22 Governance defines who makes decisions, the manner in which decisions are made and the framework within which the outcomes of decisions are assessed. Governance can be defined as the sum of organizations, policy instruments, financing mechanisms, rules, procedures and norms. d

83 APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 The Scenario Framework Rapid Dysfunction al Scenario 3 GEO-ECONOMICS Scenario 2 CLIMATE CHANGE Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Function al Gradual 74

84 APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 Scenario Characteristics and Storylines The framework for the creation of the following scenario stories was created by identifying the two forces that have the greatest degree of uncertainty and potentially have the most significant impact. The interaction of these two forces in each quadrant became the framework for the creation of four distinct but linked stories about the how in the world could unfold by the year Consideration of all of the driving forces developed the characteristics and storylines for each scenario How to Interpret the Scenarios The scenarios developed describe four distinctly different future paths for the state of the world by The scenarios are not predictions nor have probabilities been attached. All the scenarios should be considered as plausible and equally likely. Each scenario poses different challenges for strategy and actions. The real value is not in what is written, but in the insights gained about the challenges and opportunities implicit in and surfaced by each scenario. What is the key insight or key message for each scenario? What is the key implication for the Global North scenario? What are the technology and policy development priorities raised in each scenario? Major Driving Forces and Factors to 2050 Energy Technology Change Human Migration and Demographics Geopolitics Geo-Economics Climate Change Transportation Technology Communication Technology 75

85 APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 Scenario 1: Climate change is rapid- Geo-economic systems are generally functioning well. Imperative to reduce CO 2 emissions (price on carbon is high) Government as the enforcer highly regulated environment Decisions made for the collective good predominate Climate imperative forces both public and private investment in mitigation and adaptation Growth and proliferation of global corporations with regional presence Major research investments in alternative energy sources (especially electricity derived from non-fossil fuels) Major public investment in water management and desalination infrastructure Major technological changes to personal transportation (electric vs. internal combustion) Restrictions on personal travel due to o National security o CO 2 emission reduction o Food shortages Highly controlled societies (democracy suffers) o Big brother watches you Border conflicts as people try to migrate to cooler latitudes International system of law trumps national interests Imperative for national energy security to achieve o Competitive advantage o Military security Highly competitive business environment Lots of public social support (high taxes) o Good education publically funded o Online, ongoing, and expected o Publically funded health care from global health care providers via digital communications systems Large controlled indoor environments due to severe weather phenomena (domed cities, intensive agriculture systems, covered yards) o Intensive food production systems in covered environments Insurance industry no longer covers loss due to natural disaster / some government funded insurance and risk management programs, large companies self-insure Major expansion of communication systems and road and rail service in cooler countries to accommodate immigrants Major public investment in social infrastructure (hospitals, education facilities, etc. Russia emerges as a super power due to selective immigration policies and sale of valuable natural gas reserves) Natural gas = $50 / gigajoule Oil=$12.00/barrel Huge desalination industry to manufacture water for consumption and agricultural purposes Personal security and privacy concerns 76

86 APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 Scenario 2: Climate change is gradual-geo-economic systems are dysfunctional Some national governments go broke, others suffer budget constraints Corporate instead of national economics. Public infrastructure is underfunded (deteriorating) Declining standard of living for many. Decreasing average life span due to poor access to medical care. Select multinationals continue to flourish. They self-finance and build the critical infrastructure and systems required for the success of their business o Corporately delivered health care, education, water systems, road systems (company becomes the state). Disruptions to energy supplies occur throughout the world due to o Inability to pay suppliers o Deteriorating oil field infrastructure o Supply chain inefficiencies o Regional conflicts o US, UK, EU, China, India particularly affected Corporations get into the energy business to ensure corporate supply for shipping and moving goods-competitive advantage Corporations become increasingly powerful financial institutions o Only major source of credit o Credit is at the discretion of the lender o Lenders of last resort for some governments Ecological pressures and environmental degradation due to economic hardship (Public assets sold because of the need to raise cash) Government social programs and financial support is reduced or eliminated. Confidence in government is low. Global carbon tax imposed in 2020 has effectively managed CO 2 emissions and has also become an important source of state funding Significant unemployment reduces consumer demand for goods and services Number of people travelling is significantly reduced due to cost, fear, service disruption. Rise in protectionism Company towns are common Insurance Industry focuses on the corporate customer 77

87 APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 Scenario 3: Climate change is rapid- Geo-economic systems are dysfunctional Imperative to reduce CO2 emissions (price on CO 2 is high) o Global carbon tax imposed Rising sea levels Drought Flusher governments operating under significant budget constraints (only bare bones public expenditures with most public investment force to deal with climate change related issues Some governments go broke o Geo political boundaries are redrawn as governments try to reduce debt burdens by selling real estate assets or are forced to find new arrangements for citizens with other sovereign nations o Some cease, some grow Voluntary colonialism for security (trusteeship) Global financial system must be redesigned Large global companies remain prosperous, driving global investment Education o Not public o Maybe employer based o Selective Health o Increases in contagious disease and decreasing life span o Health care for corporate benefit Deteriorating public health care services Human migration to cooler latitudes as world heats up Protectionism closes markets / highly competitive global markets Huge private investments in energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels o New players in banking (e.g. Wal-Mart) new financial products, credit cards are hard to get Increasing ecological pressure as natural resources are exploited for short-term cash flow and regulatory rules are relaxed to generate employment opportunities Water and food (necessities of life) are vital commodities traded like currency on world markets Rising food prices (80% of household income), hyper-inflation occurring Many regional conflicts despite forced international co-operation around Climate Change Back to the land for self sufficiency Rise in privately funded military and security forces Insurance industry suffers huge losses 78

88 APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 Scenario 4: Climate change is gradual- Geo-economic systems are generally functioning well. Evolved and strong social cohesion o Good public health care o Good public education Freedom to invest in social and economic prosperity Energy supply and security are national imperatives causing major public and private investments in the development of alternative energy sources The need to curb CO 2 and pollution emissions results in a global pollution tax Global warming has created a pending methane release crisis Major public investment in mitigation research experiments with climatic engineering in northern and southern latitudes global agreements GMO and feed Good strong governance counters rising corporate power Curtailment of individual rights for the collective good (rights to pollute and consume) Water conservation is a high global priority Corporate social responsibility is a significant competitive advantage o Little plastic junk o Biodegradable package o Product life cycle analysis Smart and conscientious consumerism in industrialized countries Digital technologies are ubiquitous o Smart homes o Smart stores o Tele-health o Tele-learning o Robotics o Telecommunication o Personal car ownership only desirable to some Digital retail predominates due to enhanced digital capabilities (end of the big box store) Customized personalized products and service development Insurance industry booms International systems and standards are effective and accepted 79

89 Climate Change Rapid / Geo-economics Dysfunctional APPENDIX D: SCENARIO STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD IN 2050 Rapid climate change occurs in the north and other regions of the global ecosystem, transitions are fast Meaner levels of resource and economy growth Governments look to private sector for solutions (economic and social) Demand for fish and water increases significantly Methane releases occur, methane becomes a fuel source Community and local response provide education and social services Powerful economies do better Division between haves: and have-not's widens Periods of global recession Development of north is boom and bust Governance fails Human migration to Northern urban centres Governments cannot deliver Rise of corporate power major corporate economies become drivers of Northern development Some Northern regions are difficult to access, impacting development potential Many people in the world are hungry International collaboration decreases Capital exists in the accounts of those who retained earnings from previous activities Failure of existing infrastructure High degrees of conflict Scenarios Created At JIF 2011 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Climate Change Rapid / Geo-economics Functional Regulated banking system Migration to subarctic regions Food production systems suitable for Northern latitudes International cooperation to deliver social programs (education, healthcare) and research Emergence of a new economic model that recognizes climate change (distributed models) Change in personal values, decline in consumerism Public policy is enabling Insurance systems no longer cover loss due to natural causes Economic development is a rush causing negative impacts on climate and environment Resource extraction requires community development Growth of regional centres Significant investments in digital communications technology High speed, rapid change Highly uncertain future Climate change creates losers as does rapidly changing social and economic situations Winners will be those who have high degree of resiliency and adaptability and are proactive Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Climate Change Moderate / Geo-economics Dysfunctional Government provision of financial support is diminished in the North Northern development is driven by the corporations (including the provision of social services) Non-government organizations gain power re-insurance companies, arctic institutes and industry associations become influential Communities in the North without resources do not thrive Emergence of local governance Higher allocation of resource revenues to regional and local government Earlier allocation of financial resources to fight climate change has killed the economy Growing unemployment in the North Northern residents do not have equal access to education and health Reliance on digital technologies to deliver education and health-care Little immigration/migration out of the North Senior levels of governments have difficulty financing health and education 1 Aboriginal co-governance systems emerge Application of new pharmaceutical technologies Migration to South if opportunities exist May return to or rely on the land 80 Climate Change Moderate / Geo-economics Functional Transportation systems effective Strategic settlement (land rush) Economic, environmental issues and social issues are all given priority International agreements on CO 2 reduction Movement away from use of fossil fuels Expensive to do business in the Global North Focused, proactive movement to reduce CO 2 at an early stage Proactive, adaptive strategies Demography Climate change still a future threat Solid social security networks developed Many technological solutions found to address climate change Individual sacrifice for the collective good Advanced communication technologies support social well-being and opportunities in the North Carbon tax in place Full cost accounting drives development of alternative energy supplies New economic opportunities emerge in the North

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91 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH Quick Facts About the North Jasper Innovation Forum 2011 November 22-25, 2011 Jasper Park Lodge, Jasper, Alberta Assembled by Erik Lizee A quick note on sources Every attempt has been made to provide the most accurate and up-to-date information possible in this report. Nevertheless, challenges remain, particularly in the comparison across nations and by political sub-divisions. Sources consulted include the CIA World Fact Book, US and Canadian census information, various reports from scientific bodies around the north, government and territorial sources, the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment reports, as well as Wikipedia. Readers will note data sources from 2004 to 2011, care should be taken when making broad comparisons. 82

92 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH Introduction The Global North 2050 Project has been designed to explore different ideas of the long-term future of the circumpolar region with the aim of identifying and understanding the key forces and factors that shape northern challenges and opportunities. These forces and factors are expected to drive current policy choices and decisions in both the public and private sectors. The time horizon of the Project is 2050 to ensure that long-term views are developed and simplistic extrapolations from the present are avoided. As stated in the Overview document, the Project is divided into six phases. Following Phase 1, which is focused on planning, Phase 2 will be the 2011 Jasper Innovation Forum (JIF 2011). Subsequent phases will explore additional issues and enable participants with interests in the North to draw conclusions of high importance to them and to their organizations or jurisdictions. The Jasper Innovation Forum is an annual event intended to address major challenges faced by Alberta, Canada and other jurisdictions around the world. JIF 2011 will provide a venue for indepth, structured discussion and debate about the forces and factors that will shape the future of the circumpolar region to 2050, with particular emphasis on the interaction between transportation and communication systems, the environment and social and economic change. JIF 2011 will be hosted by Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures (AITF) and is the fourth in a series that started in Participation in JIF 2011 is by invitation only and all participants will be highly innovative thinkers from Canada and abroad, with wide ranges of expertise and experience. The discussions at JIF will be conducted under Chatham House Rules. Delineating and Defining The North The North can mean many things to many people. For some, it is a latitudinal line running around the earth called the Arctic Circle (66 degrees north of the equator). For others it may mean a climate, with cold long winters and brief summer seasons with perpetual darkness and perpetual sun. For others still it may be a lifestyle or cultural milieu, with small isolated communities and few linkages to the outside, where subsistence hunting and gathering are still practiced. For many, the North includes all of the above and remains a general abstract concept of something up there and cold. For the purpose of the Jasper Innovation Forum, the Global North is a meandering line through nations, parts of sub-national jurisdictions, and oceans. The JIF North includes: The entirety of nations like Iceland, Greenland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. The US State of Alaska. ii

93 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH The Canadian Territories of Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, as well as the Ungava Peninsula portion of the Province of Quebec and the Labrador region of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Defining the North in Russia remains a challenge. The Russian Federation contains 83 separate and distinct federal subjects, with six unique categories of subdivisions with varying degrees of autonomy. The Russian north includes: The Oblasts of Pskov, Tver, Vologda, Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Magadan, Lenningrad, and Novgorod. The Federal City of St. Petersburg. The Republics of Karelia, Komi, and Sakha. The Autonomous Okrugs of Nenetsia, Yamalia-Nenets, and Chukotka. The Krais of Kamchatka, and part of Krasnoyarsk, which extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Sayan Mountains, 3,000 kilometres south. Demography Population The North, as defined above, is generally sparsely populated in comparison to the temperate and tropical zones of the world. The following table summarizes the population of the JIF North. Region Population Region Population Alaska (US) 686,000 Iceland 318,000 Yukon (Canada) 34,000 Greenland 55,000 NWT (Canada) 43,500 Norway 5,000,000 Nunavut (Canada) 33,000 Sweden 9,300,000 Ungava (Canada) 10,000 Finland 5,400,000 Labrador (Canada) 26,000 Russia (parts) 16,500,000 The total population of the North is approximately 37 million individuals, representing less than 1% of the global population. iii

94 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH Population Growth and Immigration Population trends vary significantly across the North. For the European nations, we can note the following trends (2010 and 2011 estimates): Region Population Growth Rate Birth Rate Death Rate Net Migration Median Age Iceland 0.687% 13.29/ / / years Greenland 0.05% 14.6/ / / years Norway 0.329% 10.84/ / / years Sweden 0.163% 10.18/ / / years Finland 0.075% 10.37/ / / years Russia (all) -0.47% 11.05/ / / years The data above demonstrates that the populations of the North European countries are growing relatively slowly (and even shrinking in the Russian Federation). Iceland and Greenland have the highest birth rates, and the youngest median ages, while Norway, Sweden, and Finland have the lowest average birth rates and the highest median age. Norway and Sweden receive the largest influx of immigrants (per capita), while Greenland notes a net loss of immigrants versus emigrants. The Russian Federation has the highest death rate per 1000 people, with some significant declines in the population of its northern regions. For example, the Arkhangelsk Oblast saw its population decline by more than 300,000 people between 1990 and Similarly, the Karelia Republic saw its population drop by 716,000 residents in 2002 to 645,000 residents in For the US State of Alaska and the various Canadian territories, similar data are available, although not in year-over-year change. Unit 2006 Population 2001 Population 5 Year % Change Yukon 30,300 28, % NWT 41,400 37, % Nunavut 27,400 26, % Ungava 39,800 38, % Labrador 23,900 25, % The census data for the State of Alaska states a population of 663,661 for 2005, with an increase of 0.9% from the previous year (5,906 new people). The 2010 Census found 710,231 people residing in Alaska. Immigration-wise, Alaska saw 5,800 people move to the state from outside the country, and a net loss to other states of 4,619 people. Indigenous Populations iv

95 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH The relative proportion of indigenous populations versus non-indigenous populations varies greatly across the North. Iceland, for example, was settled completely by descendants of Norse and Celts, and has remained a homogenous group since the age of settlement. Similarly, Norway, Sweden, and Finland are dominated by ethnic Norwegians, Swedes, and Finns, with a small group of Sami peoples in the far north (and also extending into Russia). The picture of indigenous populations in the Russian Federation is much more complicated. Owing to the country s vast size, a significant number of indigenous peoples can be identified in northern portions of the Russian Federation. This includes, but is by no means limited to: The Aleuts (17,000 to 18,000 people) in the Kamchatka Krai and Alaska. The Alyutors (2,000 to 3,000) in the Koryak Autonomous Okrug. The Chukchi (16,000) in the Chukchi Peninsula and the Bering Sea region. The Chuvans (1,300) in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The Dolgans (7,000) in the Krasnoyarsk Krai. Yupik or Innu (24,000) in the Siberian Far East. The Itelmens (3,000) in Kamchatka Krai. The Komi (400,000) across the Russian North. The Koryaks (9,000) in the Kamchatka Krai. The Nenets (42,000) in the Yamalo-Nenets and the Nenets Autonomous Okrugs. The Nganasan (900) in the Krasnoyarsk Krai. The Vepsians (8,500) with the majority in Vologda and Lenningrad Oblasts. The Yukaghir (1,500) in the Russian North. Many other smaller groups. Greenland has the highest portion of indigenous (Innu) peoples, who account for roughly 90% of the national population (Danes and other constituency making up the remainder). For the Canadian portions of the North, the following table presents Aboriginal population numbers: Unit Total Population Aboriginal Population Aboriginal as % of Total Yukon 30,300 7,580 25% NWT 41,400 20,600 50% Nunavut 27,400 24,900 85% Ungava 39,800 23,500 59% Labrador 23,950 7,760 33% The US State of Alaska contains a number of indigenous groups, including the Inupait, Yupik, Aleut, Inuit, Tlingit, Haida, Tsmishian, Eyak, and Athabaskan. In total, they number roughly 106,000 individuals. Economy v

96 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH Gross Domestic Product There are two main components to northern economies. Resource extraction (coal, oil, gas, timber, hydropower, et cetera) and the associated administration contribute a sizeable portion of the gross domestic product to northern regions. Service and commercial activities usually contribute the second largest component of GDP. Conversely, small-scale subsistence farming and hunting, while critical to some major components of populations, does not result in a largescale dollar output. For the European region, comparative GDP and other economic data is as follows: Region GDP GDP Per Capita Iceland $11.82 billion $38,300 (2010 est.) (2010 est.) Greenland $1.989 billion $36,500 (2009 est.) (2008 est.) Norway $255.3 billion $54,600 (2010 est.) (2010 est.) Sweden $354.7 billion $39,100 (2010 est.) (2010 est.) Finland $186 billion $35,400 (2010 est.) (2010 est.) Russia (all) $2.223 trillion $15,900 (2010 est.) (2010 est.) Labour Force 181,000 (2010 est.) 28,240 (January 2009) million (2010 est.) million (2010 est.) million (2010 est.) million (2010 est.) Electricity Production billion kwh (2009) million kwh (2008) billion kwh (2009) billion kwh (2009) billion kwh (2009) billion kwh (2009) For the North American jurisdictions, comparable GDP data is as follows: Unit GDP (2009 Cdn $ in millions) GDP Per Capita (2009 Cdn $ in millions) GDP as % of National Yukon 2,026 58, % NWT 4, , % Nunavut 1,506 48, % Similar numbers for the Ungava Peninsula and Labrador are difficult to extract from province- or territory-wide figures. The US State of Alaska has a gross state product of $44.9 billion US dollars in 2007, which placed it 45 th among US States. The per capita gross state product was $40,052, the 15 th among US States for vi

97 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH Resources and Industries Iceland Agricultural Products Potatoes, green vegetables, mutton, pork, chicken, beef, dairy, fish GDP Composition by Sector Agriculture 5.5% Agriculture 4.8% Industry 24.6% Industry 22.2% Industries Fish processing, aluminum smelting, ferrosilicon production, geothermal power, hydropower, tourism Labour Force By Occupation Service 69.9% Service 73% Natural Resources: fish, hydropower, geothermal power, diatomite Greenland Industries Agricultural Products Fish processing, gold, niobium, tantalite, Forage crops, garden and greenhouse vegetables, sheep, reindeer, fish GDP Composition by Sector uranium, iron and diamond, handicrafts, hides and skins, small shipyards Labour Force By Occupation Agriculture 4.9% Agriculture 4.9% Industry 31.9% Industry 31.9% Service 63.2% Service 63.2% Natural Resources: coal, iron ore, lead, zinc, molybdenum, diamonds, gold, platinum, niobium, tantalite, uranium, fish, seals, whales, hydropower, possible oil and gas Norway Agricultural Products Barley, wheat, potatoes, pork, beef, veal, milk, fish Industries Petroleum and gas, food processing, shipbuilding, pulp and paper products, metals, chemicals, timber, mining, textiles, fishing Labour Force By Occupation GDP Composition by Sector Agriculture 2.5% Agriculture 2.9% Industry 39.4% Industry 21.1% Service 58.1% Service 76% Natural Resources: Sweden Agricultural Products Barley, wheat, sugar beets, milk, meat petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, titanium, pyrites, nickel, fish, timber, hydropower Industries Iron and steel, precision equipment (bearings, radio/telephone, armaments), wood pulp and paper, motor vehicles Labour Force By Occupation GDP Composition by Sector Agriculture 1.9% Agriculture 1.1% Industry 26.6% Industry 28.2% Service 71.6% Service 70.7% Natural Resources: iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, gold, silver, tungsten, uranium, arsenic, feldspar, timber, hydropower vii

98 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH Finland Industries Agricultural Products Metal and metal products, electronics, Barley, wheat, sugar beets, dairy cattle, fish GDP Composition by Sector machinery and scientific instruments, shipbuilding, pulp, foodstuffs, chemicals Labour Force By Occupation Agriculture 2.9% Agriculture 4.9% Industry 29% Industry 16.7% Service 68.1% Service 78.4% Natural Resources: timber, iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, chromite, nickel, gold, silver, limestone Russia (All) Industries Agricultural Products Extraction (coal, oil, gas), machinery, Grain, sugar beets, vegetables, beef, milk shipbuilding, road and transportation equipment, agricultural machinery GDP Composition by Sector Labour Force By Occupation Agriculture 4% Agriculture 10% Industry 36.8% Industry 31.9% Service 59.1% Service 58.1% Natural Resources: major deposits of oil, natural gas, coal, and many strategic minerals, reserves of rare earth elements, timber Canadian Provinces (Part) and Territories Detailed employment numbers are available through the 2006 Canada Census. Yukon NWT Nunavut Ungava Labrador Total Workers 15,450 21,100 10,410 17,555 10,125 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction 405 1, , Utilities , Construction 520 1, Manufacturing , Wholesale trade Retail trade 1,715 2,030 1,150 1,480 1,360 Transportation and warehousing 620 1, Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific viii

99 APPENDIX E: QUICK FACTS ABOUT THE NORTH and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and support, waste management Educational services 1,185 1,625 1,430 2, Health care and social assistance 1,580 1,995 1,040 2,885 1,070 Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services 1,535 1, , Other services (except public administration) Public administration 3,815 4,510 2,980 2, Alaska The Alaskan economy is dominated by oil and gas extraction, with more than 80% of state revenues derived from the oil and gas industry. After oil and gas, the main export product is seafood salmon, cod, Pollock, and crab. There is a limited agricultural industry in the state, and is directed at in-state consumers. Government, oil and gas extraction, shipping, transportation, and military are the largest employment groups. ix

100 APPENDIX F: MAP OF SELECTED NATURAL RESOURCES Source: Der SPIEGEL; Ecological Society of America, Arctic Flora and Fauna Study. Interactive Map Available: Can be used to show the location of significant Northern resource deposits 91

101 APPENDIX G: MAP OF NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION ROUTES 92

102 APPENDIX H: INTERNATIONAL SEA BOUNDARIES IN THE ARCTIC 93

103 The Future of the Circumpolar Region is Complex Source: The Economist 94