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1 Society for the Study of Social Problems College Aspirations and Expectations among Latino Adolescents in the United States Author(s): Stephanie A. Bohon, Monica Kirkpatrick Johnson, Bridget K. Gorman Source: Social Problems, Vol. 53, No. 2 (May, 2006), pp Published by: University of California Press on behalf of the Society for the Study of Social Problems Stable URL: Accessed: 25/05/ :23 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. University of California Press and Society for the Study of Social Problems are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Social Problems.

2 College Aspirations and Expectations among Latino Adolescents in the United States STEPHANIE A. BOHON, University of Georgia MONICA KIRKPATRICK JOHNSON, Washington State University BRIDGET K. GORMAN, Rice University We compare Cuban, Puerto Rican, and Mexican origin adolescents' desire to attend college and their perceived likelihood of attending college with those of non-latino white and black adolescents. We find that the strength of college aspirations and expectations is high among all the groups, and that Mexican origin and Puerto Rican origin adolescents have weaker, while Cubans have stronger, aspirations and expectations than non-latino whites. However, our findings demonstrate that the weaker college aspirations and expectations among Mexicans and the weaker expectations among Puerto Rican students are due to differences across groups in socioeconomic status, academic skill, and engagement in high school, while the stronger college aspirations and expectations of Cubans remain, even after adjusting for these measures. Furthermore, we find that parental education, family income, immigrant generation, and speaking English at home are not related to the strength of adolescents' college aspirations and expectations in the same way across Latino groups. Latinos are the largest and fastest growing minority group in the United States and the least well educated.' Latinos have the lowest rates of college enrollment, the highest rates of high school and college attrition, and the lowest overall educational attainment of all of the major racial/ethnic groups in the United States (Kaufman, Alt, and Chapman 2001). Currently, only 6 percent of Latinos who enter kindergarten in this country eventually earn a bachelor's degree compared to 49 percent of Asians, 16 percent of blacks, and 30 percent of whites (Williams 2003). Given the importance of educational attainment for social and economic mobility, mental health, physical functioning, and the development of egalitarian attitudes (see Pallas 2000), the implications of continuing low attainment among a sizeable and growing segment of our population for the long term well-being of American society are staggering. Improving educational outcomes for Latinos must become a national priority. To fully understand (and change) the social processes that lend themselves to diminished educational attainment, we must match the focus on grades, attrition, and college enrollment rates with attention to the orientations that contribute to these outcomes. This is not a radical notion; status socialization theory (beginning with Sewell, Haller, and Ohlendorf 1970) is This research uses data from Add Health, a program project designed by J. Richard Udry, Peter S. Bearman, and Kathleen Mullan Harris, and funded by grant PO1-HD31921 from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, with cooperative funding from 17 other agencies. Special acknowledgment is due to Ronald R. Rindfuss and Barbara Entwisle for assistance in the original design. Persons interested in obtaining data from Add Health should contact Add Health, Carolina Population Center, 123 W. Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC , contract.html. Direct correspondence to: Stephanie Bohon, Department of Sociology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA sbohon@uga.edu. 1. For the purposes of simplicity, the term Latino is used in this article to mean Latinos and Hispanics. Social Problems, Vol. 53, Issue 2, pp , ISSN , electronic ISSN 2006 by Society for the Study of Social Problems, Inc. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press's Rights and Permissions website, at ucpress.edu/journals/rights.htm.

3 208 BOHON/JOHNSON/GORMAN predicated on the notion that future educational success among adolescents is contingent on current beliefs that such success is desirable and likely. Research on status socialization theory is often guided by the status attainment model, which is designed to explain the reproduction of class position across generations through social-psychological processes (Morgan 2005). Two particularly important orientations suggested by status socialization theory are aspirations (an adolescent's desire to achieve high levels of education) and expectations (an adolescent's assessment of the likelihood of achieving these levels personally). Educational aspirations and expectations have a notable impact on the educational attainment process (e.g., Hanson 1994; Hao and Bonstead-Bruns 1998; Kao and Tienda 1998). Aspirations and expectations are largely influenced by habitus-the accumulation of past experience affected by class socialization, actions, and observations (Bourdieu and Passeron 1973). Clearly these experiences are shaped differently for minorities (Morgan 2005). The extent to which variations in background, family structure, and parental expectations for their children's achievement occur across racial and ethnic groups suggests that educational aspirations and expectations will vary across these groups as well, as work on African Americans has demonstrated (Hauser and Anderson 1991; Mickelson 1990). A major limitation of past research on aspirations and expectations is that it has focused almost exclusively on black-white differences (Hanson 1994; Hauser and Anderson 1991; Hout and Morgan 1975). Only a few studies examine the expectations and aspirations of Latinos, and those that do tend to focus exclusively on Mexicans and Mexican Americans (Hao and Bonstead-Bruns 1998; Kandel and Kao 2000; St-Hilaire 2002), or they treat Latinos as a monolithic group (Kao and Tienda 1998). Thus, in this article we extend the current status attainment literature by examining the differences in educational aspirations and expectations, and the factors that produce them, among Cuban, Puerto Rican, and Mexican origin youth in the United States (along with non-latino white and black adolescents). Specifically, we examine whether adolescents from different Latino ethnic backgrounds differ from each other and from non-latinos in the strength of their college aspirations and expectations. We also examine whether differences in college aspirations and expectations (if any) can be attributed to family and household characteristics, parental hopes for their child's educational success, and academic skills and disengagement, as suggested by the status attainment model. Aspirations and Expectations Aspirations and expectations are conceptually similar, but educational aspirations are understood to reflect some degree of hopefulness beyond what adolescents realistically expect to achieve (Mickelson 1990). Aspirations, therefore, are considered to be somewhat abstract, representing idealistic preferences for the future. Indicators of educational aspirations also tap values, to some degree (St-Hilaire 2002); aspirations for college may reflect students' recognition of the social and economic importance of higher education rather than their personal desire to attend college. Although aspirations may at least partially reflect the "internalization of objective probabilities for success" (Bourdieu and Passeron 1973:83), educational expectations do so to a larger extent. In comparison to aspirations, expectations are considered a more realistic self-assessment of a child's educational future (Mickelson 1989). When aspirations and expectations are compared, expectations register lower than aspirations, as would be expected (Hanson 1994; St-Hilaire 2002). The cognitive difference in expectations and aspirations is reflected in the finding that African American children have significantly higher aspirations than whites (Hauser and Anderson 1991) although their expectations are often lower (Morgan 1996). This aspiration-expectation mismatch, then, reflects the measurement of abstract rather than concrete educational orientations (Mickelson 1990).

4 College Aspirations among Latino Adolescents 209 Explanations for the low levels of academic success among Latino students in the United States are varied, and many involve in some way the educational aspirations and expectations of adolescents. Some researchers have suggested low educational attainment is directly related to the disproportionate tendency of Latinos to be immigrants, where limited English proficiency and a different orientation toward education reduce both the desire and ability to complete high school or to attend college (Van Hook 2002). Others contend that low educational aspirations and expectations are linked to poverty (Rumberger et al. 1990); the high levels of poverty among Latino families make it unlikely that many can afford either the cost of college tuition or the opportunity cost of educating an adolescent who could, instead, be working. Knowing that college is unaffordable, adolescents may not allow themselves the hope or desire for education beyond high school. Still other researchers have suggested that various factors related to minority status are reproduced throughout the social structure and create barriers to high educational attainment (Bourdieu and Passeron 1973). For example, according to Alan C. Kerckhoff (1976), minority background individuals recognize that they have greater barriers to advancement than non-minorities. Consequently, minorities set lower average goals for themselves. In short, according to these models, social background and race affect aspirations and expectations; these orientations, in turn, affect attainment. It is likely that there are a number of co-varying factors that explain low educational aspirations and expectations (and attainment) among Latinos, but more work is needed to understand the processes by which students develop them. An examination of both aspirations and expectations offers information that is relevant to current assertions about low educational attainment among Latinos. Is Latino educational attainment low because Latinos place a low premium on education (see Valencia and Black 2002)? Or, as a disadvantaged minority, do Latino adolescents recognize the numerous structural barriers to attending college, causing them to be less optimistic about their chances for high attainment (see Kerckhoff 1976)? If both educational aspirations and expectations are low, one could conclude that adolescents lack the desire to attain higher levels of education; if aspirations are high yet expectations are low, one could alternatively conclude that it is not the desire that is lacking, but the (perhaps realistic) belief that the opportunities do not exist. In either case, understanding the sources of such group differences will enable educators and policymakers to direct efforts more effectively toward improving Latino educational attainment. Latino Heterogeneity and Educational Orientations There is considerable variation among Latinos in terms of country of origin, political status, economic standing, and other factors (del Pinal and Singer 1997). These differences may have important implications for the development of educational aspirations and expectations. Previous work on Latinos' orientations toward education suggests that Cuban academic success may be at least partially attributed to high levels of trust in the educational system (see Cheng and Starks 2002). This trust stems from the additional educational support accorded early waves of Cuban refugees and the relatively high socioeconomic class of the earliest Cuban immigrants (Ogbu 1991; Velez 1989). These factors related to immigrant reception and modes of incorporation into U.S. society and may be extremely important in the socioeconomic success or failure of immigrants, creating "castelike" conditions for some groups (Pedraza-Bailey 1985), especially those who have a history of exclusion from the primary means of upward mobility. That the latter is the case for Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans has been widely noted (Ogbu 1987; Pedraza-Bailey 1985; Vdlez 1989). Indeed, the divergent histories of these groups in the United States fit John U. Ogbu's (1991) distinction between voluntary and involuntary minorities. Whereas the United States seized territory from both Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, and both groups have been historically oppressed in this country, Cubans do not share this experience.

5 210 BOHON/JOHNSON/GORMAN Given the importance of country of origin and modes of incorporation in determining the social position of different Latino groups (Ogbu 1991; Portes and B6r6cz 1989) and the importance of social position in the development of educational orientations (Bourdieu and Passeron 1973), Latinos cannot be treated as a monolithic group for the purpose of studying educational aspirations and expectations. This is especially true for Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Cuban origin groups, who make up 72 percent of the U.S. Latino population (U.S. Bureau of the Census 2000). They have faced considerably different receptions upon entry into the U.S. mainland, ranging from often warmly welcomed, in the case of Cubans, to grudgingly tolerated, in the case of Puerto Ricans, to often open hostility, in the case of Mexicans (Johnson, Farrell, and Guinn 1997; Portes and Stepick 1993). Beyond differential receptions and modes of incorporation, the considerable differences between these groups in socioeconomic conditions are also likely to be related to the race and class of their migrant ancestors. Cubans and Cuban Americans tend to be middle class with income levels commensurate with non-latino whites, while Puerto Ricans are disproportionately poor. Mexicans and Mexican Americans are the largest Latino group and have the lowest average socioeconomic status of the three groups (Cheng and Starks 2002; Ogbu 1991; Velez 1989). Puerto Ricans may also be disadvantaged by their darker phenotype in a country where race matters (Massey and Denton 1993). This is particularly evident in the poor socioeconomic conditions of many Puerto Ricans despite the fact that they are not immigrants and, therefore, have the advantages of citizenship and early English language training (Ogbu 1991). In this study, we take into account Latino heterogeneity by examining potential differences in college aspirations and expectations across the three largest Latino groups and the potential sources of such differences. Specifically, we test whether previous explanations for Latinos' low average educational attainment account for differences in college aspirations and expectations or whether additional ethnic differences remain. To see whether remaining differences reflect the varied receptions and experiences of these groups in the United States, we examine immigrant status, language use, socioeconomic disadvantage, and other family demographic characteristics. In doing so, we also consider the students' own academic skills and level of engagement in school, in keeping with the status attainment model. Given what is currently known about Cubans, Puerto Ricans, and Mexicans in the United States, we expect that both expectations and aspirations will differ across the groups. Insofar as aspirations reflect educational ideals, it is likely that Puerto Ricans-who are not immigrants and are, therefore, the most "American" of the three groups-will have similar aspirations for college, on average, as whites, although island-born Puerto Ricans may have slightly different aspirations than mainland-born, since different social conditions in the two places may shape whether college is viewed as valuable and attainable. Cubans, who exhibit high levels of trust in the educational system (Ogbu 1987) and have traditionally shown high status orientations (Portes and Stepick 1993), should have stronger college aspirations. Finally, we expect the Mexicans in our sample to exhibit weaker college aspirations than whites, as has been previously demonstrated (Portes and Rumbaut 2001; St-Hilaire 2002). Educational expectations have received much less attention than aspirations; however, the general belief is that expectations act as a proxy for the anticipation of blocked opportunities (Hanson 1994). Consequently, we would expect that, due to class differences, Mexicans would have the weakest expectations for college while Cubans will have the strongest. Puerto Ricans, who we anticipate will have aspirations on par with non-latino whites, are likely to have weaker expectations due to their underclass status. In this way, we expect the patterns of college aspirations and expectations among Puerto Ricans to mirror those of African Americans (Mickelson 1990; Morgan 2005). In addition to differences in aspirations and expectations, we also expect there to be differences in the salience of factors that predict them. Studies that have explored betweengroup differences in various measures of academic performance have found this to be the case (Cheng and Starks 2002; V6lez 1989). Based on these previous findings we expect, for example, that Mexicans will be highly sensitive to income differences, while Cuban children

6 College Aspirations among Latino Adolescents 211 will find easier access to college (and more pressure to attend) regardless of income differences. We also expect that the effects of parental education will vary, since Cuban children have been shown to have high levels of educational attainment despite low levels of attainment by their parents (Portes and Rumbaut 2001), while Mexicans and Puerto Ricans do not show this pattern (Portes and Rumbaut 2001; Vernez 1998). With regard to immigrant generations, non-citizen Mexican students have limited access to student loans, federal grants, and the instate tuition needed to make college affordable (Bohon, Macpherson, and Atiles 2005). This effect will not be evident for Puerto Ricans, who, whether mainland-born or island-born are U.S. citizens. Neither should these impediments affect most Cubans, who, as refugees, are usually given greater access to governmentally funded programs. It should be noted, however, that circular migration, particularly among Puerto Ricans who can move easily from the island to the mainland, may distort the effects of being first (and possibly second) generation. This will also be true, to a lesser extent, for Mexicans but not Cubans. English usage at home may also have variable effects across the groups. In general, speaking English at home implies a more "American" orientation and intent to stay on the U.S. mainland (Portes and Rumbaut 2001). Consequently, we would expect that Mexicans and Puerto Ricans who speak English at home will have expectations and aspirations similar to non-latino whites who also speak English at home. However, for Cubans-who tend to be clustered in south Florida where Latinos dominate the local economy-speaking English has different connotations (Portes and Stepick 1993). In the Miami area, speaking Spanish is very beneficial for conducting business and a point of pride among the upper and middle classes. Cuban parents may make a conscious effort to speak Spanish at home to ensure that their children are bilingual. Additionally, speaking Spanish among Cubans immigrants does not signal an expectation of return migration as it may for Mexicans and Puerto Ricans. Cubans speaking English at home, therefore, should have lower aspirations and expectations than Cubans who do not (and lower than non-latino whites speaking English at home). Data and Methods This research uses data drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), a nationally representative study of American adolescents in grades 7 to 12 from 134 middle and high schools in 80 communities in 1994 and 1995 (Udry 2003). Sampling of schools was stratified by region, urban location, school type (public vs. private), racial composition, and size. Data collection occurred in two steps. First, an in-school questionnaire was administered to all students present in selected schools, resulting in over 90,000 completed questionnaires. Second, a sub-sample of students (and one parent or parentlike figure) was selected for in-depth interviews at home. This sample was stratified within schools by sex and grade. All questionnaires were in English. Over 80 percent of selected students participated in the in-home interviews in 1995 (n = 20,745). For this analysis, we limit the in-home interview sample to Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Cuban adolescents, while for comparitive purposes we include non-latino white and non- Latino black respondents.2 Unfortunately, sample size limitations necessitated the removal of other Latino groups from the analysis. We also limit the sample to respondents with complete information on our dependent measures and sample weights, resulting in a final sample size of 16,545.' 2. Although we acknowledge important differences, for simplicity, references to Cubans and Mexicans refer to both immigrants and U.S.-born residents with Cuban and Mexican ethnicity, unless directly specified. 3. Missing values were imputed using the "impute" command in STATA (see StataCorp [2003] for more information). Missing values on each independent measure were imputed on the basis of the other measures included in this

7 212 BOHON/JOHNSON/GORMAN The Add Health data offer an excellent opportunity for intergroup comparisons, as there are a large number of cases in each group. We note two limitations to using the Add Health data for the analyses conducted here, however. First, Add Health is a school-based questionnaire. As a consequence, these data do not include information on students who have dropped out. Second, the in-home questionnaire was administered in English only. Consequently, the missing cases may be disproportionately drawn from adolescents with immigrant parents. Admittedly, the second problem is greater than the first, since the omission of dropouts will yield resultant findings that are more conservative than if dropouts were included. Mexicans and Puerto Ricans are more likely to drop out than non-latino whites, and drop outs are likely to have weaker college aspirations and expectations, so any differences we observe in this sample would likely be wider if we had information from drop outs. Our measure of college aspirations reflects the degree to which respondents want to attend college ("On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is low and 5 is high, how much do you want to go to college?"). Expectations, in contrast, reflect the degree to which respondents believe they will attend college ("On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is low and 5 is high, how likely is it that you will go to college?"). Thus, our measure reflects the strength of the desire for and anticipation of going to college, a particularly salient level of educational attainment for contemporary adolescents (Schneider and Stevenson 1999). Our primary predictor of interest is race/ethnicity, categorized as Cuban, Puerto Rican, Mexican, non-latino white, and non-latino black. We also examine the influence of a number of factors typically considered to shape educational aspirations and expectations (see Cheng and Starks 2002), including family characteristics, the influence of significant others, indicators of academic skills and behaviors, age and gender. Family characteristics include number of siblings and a categorical measure of family structure: two biological/adoptive parents, any other two parent family, mother only, and other. Given our focus on Latino adolescents, we also examine the influence of immigrant status and English language use. Puerto Ricans are not foreign-born; yet, we expect that the islandborn will differ from both the mainland-born with island-born parents and the mainland-born with mainland-born parents, paralleling generational status among other Latinos. Indeed, there is a precedent for our treatment of island-born Puerto Ricans as similar to foreign-born, as the island-born versus mainland-born distinction parallels the native-born versus foreignborn distinction for other outcomes (see Landale, Oropesa, and Gorman 1999; Zsembik and Fennell 2005). Consequently, we differentiate first generation (born outside the U.S. mainland), second generation (U.S.-born with at least one parent born outside of the U.S. mainland), and third generation (U.S.-born with U.S.-born parents). We also measure whether or not English is usually spoken at home (1 = yes, 0 = no). Two measures of family socioeconomic status are also included. Income is a continuous measure of the natural log of total family income in An ordinal measure of parental education is also included, representing the highest level of completed schooling of the respondent's mother or father, whichever is greater. The categories are educational attainment less than a high school diploma, a high school diploma or equivalent (including those who attended some college but did not achieve at least a bachelor's degree), and an earned bachelor's degree or better. High school graduates are our reference group. Parents' aspiration for the adolescent is constructed as an averaged index of four items ("How disappointed would your mother [father] be if you did not graduate from high school?" and "How disappointed would your mother [father] be if you did not graduate from college?") Responses ranged from 1 = low disappointment, to 5 = high disappointment (o =.80). analysis (percent missing included in parentheses): parental education (1.69), family income (24.27), parent college aspirations for R (2.16), school disengagement score (1.87), self-rated intelligence (0.16), and PVT score (4.94). Given the high rate of missing values that were imputed for family income (24.27), we re-estimated all the included regression models with a control that flagged imputed cases. In all models the control was not significant, and thus was not retained.

8 College Aspirations among Latino Adolescents 213 We measure both academic skills and engagement in school. One measure of academic skills is a continuous score on the Add Health Picture Vocabulary Test (PVT). This test was derived from the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-Revised (PPVT-R) that measures the hearing (receptive) vocabulary for Standard American English (Dunn and Dunn 1981) and is often interpreted as a gauge of verbal ability. The PVT included in Add Health differs from the PPVT-R in that only half of the original items were administered. Raw scores were age standardized with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. A second measure of academic skills is the respondents' self-rated intelligence ("Compared with other people your age, how intelligent are you?"), where 1 = moderately below average, and 6 = extremely above average. Our measure of academic disengagement is based on responses to three items: in the past school year, how many times the adolescent skipped school, had trouble paying attention in school, and had trouble getting homework done (Johnson, Crosnoe, and Elder 2001). For the first item, the responses are collapsed into five categories (0, 1-2, 2-5, 6-9, 10+ days). Responses ranged from 0 (never) to 4 (every day) for the second and third items. The three items are averaged, as long as at least two are not missing, to create the composite scale (o" =.61). Finally, we include measures of age and gender. Of these, age is particularly important since younger adolescents may be more optimistic about their educational future than older children. In many studies (e.g., Hanson 1994; Morgan 1996) researchers minimize this problem by using same grade respondents; however, sample size considerations do not allow us to both select same-grade respondents and also examine Latino heterogeneity.4 Due to the complex sampling strategy employed to collect the data (a multistage, stratified, school-based, cluster sampling design), models are estimated using the Huber/White estimator of variance (see Chantala and Tabor 1999). Rather than assuming that observations are independent, the estimation procedures we use correct for intracluster correlation, producing standard errors that are more accurate and reducing the chance of false-positive significance tests. In addition, weights are also used in all analyses due to the fact that some ethnic/racial groups were oversampled. Results Descriptive statistics are presented in Table 1. They show strong aspirations for and expectations of college attendance across each of the five groups. Important differences across ethnic groups exist, however. As anticipated, Mexicans have weaker than average (and weaker than non-latino white and black) and Cubans have stronger than average aspirations and expectations compared to all other groups. Puerto Ricans' aspirations are lower than non- Latino blacks', while Puerto Rican expectations are lower than non-latino blacks and whites.5 Differential aspirations and expectations may be explained by the considerable differences in family and household characteristics, parental hopes for their child's educational success, and academic skills and disengagement. It is worth noting that the reported income for Cubans in this study is lower than for Puerto Ricans and non-latino whites, which is inconsistent with the fact that Cubans in the United States have income levels commensurate with non-latino whites (U.S. Bureau of the Census 2000). The finding with regard to this sample may reflect that the Cuban adolescent respondents in the Add Health survey are disproportionately immigrants themselves, and many of the (also disproportionate) second generation may be children of the last waves of Cubans arriving after the 1959 Revolution. That 4. To examine this issue further, we replicated all analyses in this study eliminating respondents who were seniors in high school and likely to have their college plans fixed. The resulting analyses (available upon request) were not markedly different from those presented here. 5. The p-values on the difference of means tests between Puerto Ricans and whites and Puerto Ricans and blacks were.055 and.046, respectively. That Puerto Ricans do not appear to have aspirations significantly different from non- Latino whites is likely to be due to the adjustment for standard errors in our estimation procedures.

9 Table 1 * Adolescents' Responses to School-Based Questionnaire, Weighted Means (SD) and Percentages for Dependent an Full Sample Non-Latino White Non-Latino Black Mexican (n = 16,545) (n = 9,962) (n = 4,000) (n = 1,583) How much R wants to go to college 4.4 (1.0) 4.4 (1.0) 4.4 (1.2) 4.2 (1.3)ab How likely R will go to college 4.1 (1.2) 4.2 (1.0) 4.1 (1.4) 3.7 (1.4)ab Age of adolescent, years 15.9 (1.8) 15.9 (1.6) 16.1 (2.2) 16.0 (2.1) Female, % Number of siblings 1.3 (0.9) 1.2 (0.8) 1.3 (1.2)a 1.8 (1.2)ab Family structure, % Two biological/adoptive parents a 55.4b Other two parent a 15.3 Mom only a 19.1b Other a 10.2ab Immigrant status, % First generation ab Second generation ab Third or higher generation ab English spoken in home ab Family income in dollars, logged 3.5 (0.8) 3.7 (0.6) 3.1 (1.0)a 3.1 (0.9)a Parental education, % Less than high school la 49.2ab High school graduate ab College graduate a 10.2ab Parent college aspirations for R 3.9 (1.2) 3.9 (1.1) 4.0 (1.5) 3.8 (1.4)b PVT score (13.3) (10.6) 93.1 (15.1)a 92.7 (16.1)a Self-rated intelligence 3.8 (1.1) 3.9 (0.9) 4.0 (1.4) 3.4 (1.2)ab School disengagement score 1.0 (0.8) 1.0 (0.7) 0.9 (0.9)a 1.1 (1.0)b Source: Data from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; Udry 2003). Note: p <.05. Mean (percentage) is significantly different from a non-latino whites b non-latino blacks c Mexicans d Puerto Ricans

10 College Aspirations among Latino Adolescents 215 is, they are the children of the least advantaged Cuban immigrants, who are not economically typical of Cubans and Cuban Americans generally. Since Add Health is a school cluster study, students might have been sampled from schools with a high proportion of Cuban immigrants. However, given the low response rate across groups on the measure of family income, findings should be interpreted with caution. Main Effects To test for differences between the groups in the strength of college aspirations and expectations and for potential sources of such differences we regressed college aspirations and expectations on race and ethnicity, family characteristics, significant others' influence, and academic skills and school disengagement using ordered logit analysis. We also tested interaction effects, where appropriate, based on our hypotheses. Findings with regard to college aspirations are shown in Table 2. College expectation models are shown in Table 3. Model 1 in both tables tests racial and ethnic group differences only. Racial/ethnic differences are evident in both educational aspirations and expectations. With respect to aspirations, Mexican and Puerto Rican youth have significantly weaker college aspirations than non-latino white youth; Cuban college aspirations are stronger. The same pattern is evident with regard to expectations. Mexican and Puerto Rican youth (along with non-latino blacks) are significantly more likely to have weaker expectations while Cubans are significantly more likely to have stronger expectations than non-latinos whites. In analyses not shown, we also test the same models rotating the reference group. These findings, along with the results of Model 1, underscore the problems that arise when Latino groups are not differentiated. The college aspirations and expectations of Cubans are much higher than those of Puerto Ricans or Mexicans. This important finding is lost when these groups are aggregated. Cubans' smaller proportion in samples compared to these other groups probably accounts for the fairly consistent finding of low educational aspirations and expectations among Latinos (Hao and Bonstead-Bruns 1998; Kao and Tienda 1998). Due to space considerations, we only present our models with non-latino whites as the reference group in Tables 2 and 3, although we report contrasts with Mexicans as the reference, where relevant. With significant differences between the racial and ethnic groups in the strength of college aspirations and expectations, our next question centers around the potential sources of such group differences. In Model 2 in Tables 2 and 3 we add individual and family demographic characteristics. In Model 3 we include other factors found in status attainment models (Morgan 2005): family socioeconomic status indicators, parental hopes that the respondent will graduate from college, and measures of adolescents' academic skills and school disengagement, to examine whether these factors might explain the group differences observed in Model 1. For Mexicans, differences from non-latino whites in college aspirations and expectations disappear when family socioeconomic status and academic variables are added in Model 3. For Puerto Ricans, differences from non-latino whites in college expectations, but not aspirations, disappear when these variables are added. To try to understand what specific cofactors mediated these effects, we conducted step-wise regression (not shown). The results indicate that controlling either parental education or PVT scores alone explain the difference in aspirations (but not expectations) for Mexicans. Interestingly, no one variable explained the difference in expectations for either Mexicans or Puerto Ricans, suggesting that it is the combination of all of the family socioeconomic status and school and learning variables that levels the differences between these groups and non-latino whites. Cuban adolescents demonstrated stronger college aspirations and expectations than non-latino whites even after adjusting for socioeconomic status and other factors (see Model 3). Rotating the reference group, it is clear that Cubans have considerably and significantly stronger college aspirations and expectations than Mexicans, but Puerto Ricans do not.

11 Table 2 * Weighted Ordered Logit Regression Coefficients: How Much Respondent Wants to Attend College Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 M Race/ethnicity (ref: NL white) Non-Latino black.02 (.08).17 (.08)*.27 (.08)** - Mexican -.45 (.10)*** -.43 (.12)*** -.01 (.11) Puerto Rican -.51 (.19)* -.50 (.17)** -.38 (.19)* - Cuban.21 (.10)*.14 (.19).35 (.14)* - Age of adolescent -.13 (.02)*** -.09 (.02)*** -.09 (.02)*** - Female.34 (.05)***.32 (.05)***.32 (.05)***.32 Number of siblings -.05 (.03).02 (.03).02 (.03).02 Family structure (ref: two bio/adoptive) Other two parent -.28 (.06)***.00 (.06).00 (.06).00 Mom only -.30 (.07)***.20 (.07)**.20 (.07)**.20 Other -.65 (.09)*** -.06 (.09) -.06 (.09) -.06 Immigrant status (ref: three or more generations) First generation.11 (.14) -.05 (.14) Second generation.15 (.11).03 (.11) -.03 English spoken in home.05 (.13) -.39 (.15)** -.40 (.16)* Family income (logged).18 (.05)***.18 (.04)***.18 ( Parental education (ref: high school graduate) Less than high school -.22 (.07)** -.21 (.07)** -.21 College graduate.44 (.06)***.44 (.06)***.44 (.0 Parent college aspirations for R.50 (.02)***.50 (.02)***.50 PVT score.02 (.00)***.02 (.00)***.02 Self-rated intelligence.28 (.03)***.28 (.03)***.28 School disengagement score -.37 (.03)*** -.37 (.03)*** -.37 Race/ethnicity + Immigrant (ref: third gen NL white) NL white + First generation -.08 (.25) NL white + Second generation.09 (.17) NL black + First generation 1.42 (.72)* NL black + Second generation -.20 (.26) NL black + Three or more generations.27 (.08)** Mexican + First generation -.21 (.20) Mexican + Second generation.04 (.19) Mexican + Three or more generations.03 (.12)

12 Puerto Rican + First generation -.28 (.51) Puerto Rican + Second generation -.32 (.30) Puerto Rican + Three or more generations -.41 (.21) Cuban + First generation.57 (.39) Cuban + Second generation.43 (.12)*** Cuban + Three or more generations -.37 (.76) Race/ethnicity + English (ref: English NL white) NL white + Non-English.45 NL black + English.27 NL black + Non-English 1.54 Mexican + English.00 Mexican + Non-English.36 Puerto Rican + English -.36 Puerto Rican + Non-English -.07 Cuban + English.43 Cuban + Non-English.71 Race/ethnicity + Parental educ. (ref: HS grad NL white) NL white + Less than high school NL white + College graduate NL black + Less than high school NL black + High school graduate NL black + College graduate Mexican + Less than high school Mexican + High school graduate Mexican + College graduate Puerto Rican + Less than high school Puerto Rican + High school graduate Puerto Rican + College graduate Cuban + Less than high school Cuban + High school graduate Cuban + College graduate Race/ethnicity x Logged family income (ref: NL white) NL black x Income Mexican x Income Puerto Rican x Income Cuban x Income Pseudo R Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Unweighted N = 16,545. * p <.05 ** p <.01 *** p <.001.

13 Table 3 * Weighted Ordered Logit Regression Coefficients: How Likely Respondent Is to Attend College Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 M Race/ethnicity (ref: NL white) Non-Latino black -.20 (.09)*.02 (.09).16 (.08)* - Mexican -.79 (.10)*** -.67 (.11)*** -.17 (.10) - Puerto Rican -.58 (.16)*** -.45 (.14)** -.23 (.15) - Cuban.24 (.11)*.30 (.11)**.65 (.29)** - Age of adolescent -.02 (.02).04 (.02)*.04 (.02)*.04 Female.47 (.04)***.50 (.04)***.50 (.04)***.50 Number of siblings -.07 (.02)**.01 (.02).00 (.02).00 Family structure (ref: two bio/adoptive) Other two parent -.45 (.06)*** -.15 (.05)* -.15 (.06)** -.15 Mom only -.59 (.06)***.01 (.06).01 (.06).01 Other -.98 (.08)*** -.33 (.09)*** -.33 (.09)*** -.33 Immigrant status (ref: three or more generations) First generation -.03 (.13) -.27 (.11)* -.27 Second generation.22 (.10)*.07 (.11) -.08 English spoken in home.26 (.10)* -.26 (.13)* -.27 (.14) Family income (logged).30 (.04)***.30 (.04)***.30 Parental education (ref: high school graduate) Less than high school -.21 (.08)** -.20 (.07)** -.20 College graduate.70 (.06)***.70 (.06)***.70 Parent college aspirations for R.53 (.02)***.53 (.02)***.53 PVT score.02 (.00)***.02 (.00)***.02 Self-rated intelligence.36 (.02)***.36 (.02)***.36 School disengagement score -.46 (.04)*** -.46 (.04)*** -.46 Race/ethnicity + Immigrant (ref: third gen NL white) NL white + First generation -.43 (.16)** NL white + Second generation.28 (.19) NL black + First generation.56 (.41) NL black + Second generation -.38 (.29) NL black + Three or more generations.17 (.08)* Mexican + First generation -.50 (.22)* Mexican + Second generation -.10 (.18) Mexican + Three or more generations -.14 (.11)

14 Puerto Rican + First generation -.47 (.24)* Puerto Rican + Second generation -.36 (.21) Puerto Rican + Three or more generations -.16 (.22) Cuban + First generation.79 (.16)*** Cuban + Second generation.60 (.21)** Cuban + Three or more generations.12 (.72) Race/ethnicity + English (ref: English NL white) NL white + Non-English -.02 NL black + English.14 NL black + Non-English 2.29 Mexican + English -.17 Mexican + Non-English.08 Puerto Rican + English -.20 Puerto Rican + Non-English -.10 Cuban + English.53 Cuban + Non-English.96 Race/ethnicity + Parental educ. (ref: HS grad NL white) NL white + Less than high school NL white + College graduate NL black + Less than high school NL black + High school graduate NL black + College graduate Mexican + Less than high school Mexican + High school graduate Mexican + College graduate Puerto Rican + Less than high school Puerto Rican + High school graduate Puerto Rican + College graduate Cuban + Less than high school Cuban + High school graduate Cuban + College graduate Race/ethnicity x Logged family income (ref: NL white) NL black x Income Mexican x Income Puerto Rican x Income Cuban x Income Pseudo R Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Unweighted N = 16,545. * p <.05 ** p <.01 *** p <.001.

15 220 BOHON/JOHNSON/GORMAN Cubans' stronger college aspirations and expectations, and Puerto Ricans' weaker college aspirations, are not attributable to any of the factors we model. This may reflect unmeasured differences related to their reception in the United States and, for Cubans, federal assistance received (see Portes and Borocz 1989). Interestingly, differences between Cuban and non- Latino white youth's expectations for attending college are magnified once family demographic and socioeconomic status are controlled. Several other findings from these models are worth noting. First, although it has been shown that immigrant status has important implications for educational achievement and attainment (Rumberger 1983; Suarez-Orozco 1987), direct measures of immigrant status are not associated with college aspirations. For expectations, differences by immigrant generation in the full model show that only first generation immigrants differ from third and later generation once all other factors are controlled; immigrants are less likely to expect to attend college. This finding is not surprising since foreign-born adolescents face more barriers to college attendance such as reduced access to college funding than the U.S.-born (Bohon et al. 2005). Second, English language use at home demonstrates an interesting relationship to the strength of college aspirations and expectations. In Model 3, English language use at home is negatively associated with both college aspirations and expectations. Although this is a somewhat complicated effect to explain, supplementary analyses (not shown) indicate that controlling for parental education, family income, or PVT causes the change in sign for English language use between Models 2 and 3 for college expectations. Perhaps these measures separate those children living in households with parents who speak English but choose to speak another language at home (probably Spanish) from those who speak another language at home because they cannot speak English. Unfortunately, Add Health does not provide information on English proficiency or on parents' beliefs surrounding language choice, so we are unable to explore this possibility further with these data. Third, the variables typically used to examine status attainment are significant and in the expected direction for age, sex, family income, parental education, parental aspirations, measures of academic ability, and disengagement for both aspirations and expectations. Unexpectedly, adolescents living in mother-headed households have stronger aspirations than those living with two biological or adoptive parents once socioeconomic and academic variables are controlled. More in line with prior work, adolescents living in step-parent families or other families (except female-headed families) have weaker college expectations than those living with two biological or adoptive parents. These differences in findings probably reflect the more realistic character of expectations versus aspirations. Whether or not a child expects to attend college (regardless of desire) is likely tempered by his or her family background. Interaction Effects Although our findings thus far address racial and ethnic differences in the strength of college aspirations and expectations and examine potential explanations of these differences, our final research question considers more closely the factors associated with college aspirations and expectations for different groups. Specifically, we expect that the relationship between college aspirations and expectations on the one hand, and income, parental education, immigrant generation, and language spoken at home on the other hand, will vary by race/ethnicity. To test this, we estimate interaction effects between these four characteristics and race/ethnicity, one at a time, in our full model. These effects are shown in Models 4 to 7 in Tables 2 and 3. Model 4 examines the interaction of race/ethnicity and immigrant generation. Our findings reveal some significant differences by immigrant generation across racial/ethnic groups, but not always in the expected directions. We had anticipated that immigrant generation would matter for Mexicans, but not for Puerto Ricans and Cubans. We found, instead, that generation was most differentiating among Cubans. Second generation Cubans had stronger aspirations, and first and second generation Cubans had stronger expectations, than did third

16 College Aspirations among Latino Adolescents 221 generation whites. Island-born Puerto Ricans and first generation Mexicans had weaker expectations than third generation whites. We had anticipated that the impact of being first generation would be greater for Mexicans than Puerto Ricans, which turns out to be not the case. The overall pattern of findings suggests that even controlling socioeconomic status and other characteristics, island-born Puerto Ricans and first generation Mexicans have weaker college expectations than do third generation non-latino whites. In contrast, Cubans' stronger college aspirations and expectations seen in the main effects model are clearly driven by the aspirations and expectations of first and second generation Cuban adolescents, and not all Cuban adolescents. The finding that island-born Puerto Ricans and Mexican immigrants are less likely to expect to go to college than third and later generation whites is probably influenced by circular migration. Puerto Rican and Mexican migrants are quite likely to expect that they would not remain on the U.S. mainland for their college (or even all of their high school) years. The pattern seen with Cubans is typical of a phenomenon known as generational decline (Gans 1992). First generation immigrants typically have strong attachments to education (although not necessarily the means of achieving high educational levels). Second generation immigrants tend to be very highly educated. Third and later generations (those that are the most acculturated) have levels of education similar to other natives. Model 5 examines the interaction of language spoken at home with race/ethnicity. We hypothesized that Puerto Ricans and Mexicans who speak English at home and Cubans who do not speak English at home would have stronger college aspirations and expectations than non-latino whites. With respect to college aspirations, the hypothesis was supported for Cubans, but we found that Mexicans who do not speak English at home have stronger college aspirations than whites who speak English at home, and there was no effect for Puerto Ricans. Certainly, as the proportion of the population that is of Mexican origin increases, speaking Spanish at home may no longer reflect an inability to speak English, and additional research is needed, including an examination of why a language is spoken at home. The pattern for Mexicans is not only unexpected, however, but also does not appear consistent with the findings in the main effects models. Before firm conclusions can be drawn for this group, therefore, the findings need to be replicated in additional studies. With respect to college expectations, again, our hypothesis is supported for Cubans but not for Mexicans and Puerto Ricans. We believe that English language usage at home signals a different cultural phenomenon for Cubans than for Puerto Ricans and Mexicans. Cubans who choose to speak English at home may do so consciously for social class reasons where speaking Spanish is economically beneficial and a point of pride among upper class Cubans (Portes and Stepick 1993; children growing up in such an environment may feel that they "have" to go to college). Model 6 includes the test for interactions between parental education and race/ethnicity. As discussed above, we anticipated that the relationship between parental education and college aspirations and expectations would be weaker for Latinos, especially Cubans, compared to non-latino whites. While the interpretation of these findings is somewhat complex, the results in Model 6 indicate that there is a monotonic rise in educational aspirations and expectations among non-latino whites for each higher level of parental education level, consistent with a wealth of past research. That pattern is not seen among the Latino groups. Additional information is gained by rotating the reference group, and in this case, also estimating models separately by racial/ethnic group in order to check the parental education pattern for each (not shown). As expected, we find that parental education is not significantly associated with college aspirations or expectations among Cuban adolescents. Although we did not expect that the association between parental education and college aspirations and expectations would be absent for Puerto Rican and Mexican youth, that is the general pattern we found. Mexicans with parents who did not complete high school have lower aspirations for college than other Mexicans, but there are no differences by parental education level in

17 222 BOHON/JOHNSON/GORMAN expectations for college. There is also no rise in aspirations for or expectations of attending college associated with higher parental education levels among Puerto Ricans either. Overall, the results show that aspirations and expectations among Latino adolescents are not as sensitive to changes in the levels of parental education as non-latino whites are. Finally, Model 7 examines the interaction between race/ethnicity and logged income. We hypothesized that college expectations among Mexicans would be more sensitive to differences in family income, while college expectations for Cuban adolescents would be less sensitive to differences in family income. We did not expect that the interactions would be significantly different for aspirations. Again, our findings are mixed. The relationship between income and aspirations was weaker for Latinos than non-latino whites, although the difference was only statistically significant for Puerto Ricans. The relationship between income and college expectations was weaker for both Mexicans and Puerto Ricans compared to non- Latino whites. Puerto Ricans, and to some extent Mexicans, do not appear to gain as much from higher family incomes as whites gain. Conclusions Previous studies of Latino adolescents find that the college aspirations and expectations of this population, when aggregated, are generally lower than non-latino whites. However, given the differences in backgrounds and experiences among Latino groups (Ogbu 1991), and the importance of these differences in the development of goal orientations (Bourdieu and Passeron 1973), there is a need to extend the literature in a way that takes into account heterogeneity among Latino groups. Mexicans and Puerto Ricans-many of whom are members of an impoverished underclass-could not be expected to show the same patterns in college aspirations and expectations as Cubans (who are generally middle class), since social class is important in shaping the factors that lead to status attainment (Morgan 2005). In our study we find that heterogeneity matters; Latinos vary considerably from whites in the strength of their college aspirations and expectations, with Mexicans and Puerto Ricans having weaker aspirations and expectations and Cubans having stronger. Furthermore, Mexicans' and Puerto Ricans' aspirations and expectations differ from Cubans'. Findings from previous studies that document consistently low educational aspirations and expectations for Latinos (combined as a single group) are distorted by the disproportionate numbers of Mexicans and Mexican Americans in the larger group, as well as the fact that Mexicans and Mexican Americans are disproportionately poor and the children of poorly educated parents, compared to non-latino whites. Researchers must recognize the heterogeneity of the Latino population and emphasize the necessity of examining processes and outcomes separately by national-origin group, as findings from research on one group are not always generalizable to another, and programs to reduce social problems among "Latinos" may meet with mixed success, depending on the target population. The most recently emerging work on education is promising, as researchers are increasingly recognizing these important ethnic differences, and the more recently available data offer sufficient sample sizes to disaggregate at least the largest groups (Portes and Rumbaut 2001). Heterogeneity might not matter for the reasons some researchers have suggested, however. One pervasive explanation for low levels of educational attainment among Mexicans and Mexican Americans is that they simply do not hold the same educational values as other adolescents for cultural rather than socioeconomic reasons. We find, however, that some of the differences in expectations and aspirations between Mexicans and non-hispanic whites and the differences in expectations between Puerto Ricans and non-hispanic whites can be accounted for by differences in family socioeconomic status. These findings underscore the pervasiveness of Mexican and Puerto Rican education and income disadvantages. For Mexicans, at least, the high rates of poverty and low levels of parental education are more likely to be factors of historical immigrant streams and modes of incorporation than they are a cultural

18 College Aspirations among Latino Adolescents 223 tendency to undervalue education (Ogbu 1991; Valencia and Black 2002). These characteristics have a real impact on aspirations and expectations. School and learning factors are also important. PVT scores, self-rated intelligence and school disengagement-in combination with family socioeconomic status-mediates the differences in expectations between Puerto Ricans and Mexicans and non-latino whites. These factors also mediated the differences in aspirations between Mexicans and non-latino whites. PVT scores were particularly important in reducing differences. This suggests that improving educational goals requires increased attention to vocabulary training at the primary and secondary level. For the first generation, this may require more resources allocated for English Speakers of Other Languages curricula. For the second generation, this may require more adult education so that parents are better equipped to help children develop their English language skills. Cuban youth have stronger aspirations and expectations of college attendance compared to non-latino whites, even considering socioeconomic factors, parental aspirations, and the students' own academic skills and engagement in school. It is possible that these findings are reflective of the unique and more privileged history of Cubans in the United States compared to the "caste-like" conditions of Mexicans and Puerto Ricans. Another advantage that Cubans may have is a greater tendency to cluster in affluent communities where the external messages that underscore the expectation of college attendance may be more salient and consistent (Portes and Stepick 1993). This may also explain why Cuban adolescents with only minimally-educated parents have considerably stronger expectations for college attendance than the other racial/ethnic groups examined here. Of course, consistent with Pierre Bourdieu and Jean-Claude Passeron (1973), we would expect some of the predictors of college aspirations and expectations to vary in strength by race/ethnicity, and they do. Analysis of interaction effects between ethnicity and parental education show that Latino adolescents do not show the same monotonic increase in college aspirations with parental education that non-latino whites do. With respect to expectations for college, Mexican adolescents' expectations increase between having parents who did not finish high school and having parents who did, as they do among non-hispanic white adolescents, but Puerto Ricans' and Cubans' expectations do not. This pattern for Cubans was anticipated, given the history of Cuban settlement in the United States. The pattern for Puerto Ricans, however, is troubling. Similarly, the association of income with these outcomes is weaker for Puerto Rican and Mexican adolescents than for non-latino whites. Additionally, there are significant interaction effects with some race/ethnic groups and immigrant generation and language spoken at home. These findings suggest that the approaches to improving educational attainment for Latinos geared toward changing aspirations and expectations must be approached differently for different Latino groups. Adult education programs, for example, may have more limited benefit in affecting Cuban and Puerto Rican adolescents' expectations than for Mexican adolescents' expectations. As the Latino population in the United States grows, our results suggest both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for the future. Despite a rapidly changing Latino population (U.S. Bureau of the Census 2000), too many Mexicans and Puerto Ricans remain in poverty. Insofar as socioeconomic status is associated with college aspirations and expectations, the chances of seeing significant changes in the latter in the future remain slim. Furthermore, as a sizeable portion of the Latino population comprises working class Mexican immigrants, their children are likely to exhibit the less ambitious orientations that are associated with having poorly educated parents. On the other hand, as the visibility of the Latino population increases, immigrants are increasingly willing to maintain important cultural practices, such as remaining (at least) bilingual (Johnson, Oliver, and Roseman 1989), which our findings suggest may be associated with a greater desire to attend college among Mexicans and Cubans. Building on the findings of this study, future research should attend to several additional processes with implications for Latino educational attainment. First, it is important to examine whether important racial/ethnic variation exists in the relationship between educational aspirations and expectations and students' course taking patterns in high school. For a suc-

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